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Speculation about the Targaryens on Dragonstone


Lord Varys

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17 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

But Viserys intended for Rhaenyra to follow him no matter how many children he fathered. That's why she was specifically named Princess of Dragonstone, and had so many lords swear to defend her rights. So why should he have believed a clause to be necessary?

Back when Aemma was pregnant with Baelon he seems to have hoped he would get a male heir after all. The lavish ceremony for Rhaenyra as well as the oaths of obeisance the lords were necessary because the Great Council of 101 AC had it called into question that a woman could inherit at all. It was Daemon vs. Rhaenyra back then, and Otto Hightower had decided that the Realm's Delight was to be preferred to the Prince of the City.

Viserys I could have made Rhaenyra his Heir Apparent only under certain conditions, or he could have named her his Heir Presumptive coming before Daemon but after any sons he might have in the future. He clearly did not do that but named her his Heir Apparent, period.

The problem with this weirdo setting there is that Viserys I ended up remarrying a year (or even half a year) later, in 106 AC. Wasn't the question of the remarriage of the king already on the table back in 105 AC? Didn't he think his new wife might give him sons? There are some subtle hints that Viserys I might have thought children by Alicent wouldn't be eligible to inherit the throne because they were only half-Targaryen. But even with that in mind the whole thing is pretty odd.

17 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

But even then, if he had fathered sons and Aegon the Younger had suddenly died, Jaehaera would still remain as his heir. So either he would have to marry his eldest son to Jaehaera, or have included a statement in making Jaehaera his heir that voids her rights to the Iron Throne once Aegon fathers a son, I think.

Well, it would depend how things went when Aegon II named Jaehaera and Aegon the Younger his heirs. Did he make them his heirs, period - like Viserys I seems to have done - or was their inheritance dependent on some conditions? When compared to the Rhaenyra situation Jaehaera-Aegon definitely did not have the advantage of a lavish ceremony and a lot of lords swearing to defend their rights. Thus I think Aegon II could have changed the succession in favor of a son rather easier later on.

But it is definitely the case that Jaehaera-Aegon were not just Aegon II's heirs presumptive. They were his official and acknowledged heirs at the time of his death.

Thinking about that whole thing we have to keep in mind that the succession seems to be a lot more difficult to change after it has been formally established by decree or ceremony. For instance, Myrcella and Shireen are only the heirs presumptive of their father/brother, just as Tommen was prior to Joff's sudden and unaccepted death. That enabled Stannis to offer Renly to name him his heir while he had no son. If he had already formally declared that Shireen was his heir that would have been much more difficult to do.

Maekar had a lot of potential heirs after the death of Aerion and apparently never got around to name a new Heir Apparent. The same goes for Jaehaerys I after the death of Baelon. That's why things got so confused at this point.

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On ‎21‎-‎11‎-‎2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Interestingly, there some perhaps related events that are said to have occurred around c.700BC in regards to the Wolf's Den:

  • Karlon Stark, a younger son of the King, helps put down a "rebel lord" & is awarded his own lands. He builds a castle called Karl's Hold as the seat of his new Stark cadet branch. Eventually the castle becomes known as Karhold & the House the Karstarks.
  • House Bolton bends the knee to Winterfell (strange, they had already done that centuries before when the last Red King, Rogar the Huntsman, bent the knee & swore fealty to King Theon Stark, the Hungry Wolf) & agrees to stop flaying their enemies (strangely, historically the Starks).
  • The "overmighty" Manderlys are driven from the Reach "at the behest" of Perceon III Gardener (likely a weak king manipulated, though the Manderlys may not have been completely innocent) by Lord Lorimar Peake (mmm, why is the Manderlys' "Bracken" in charge of the royal power/forces? And why if the Manderlys were such a threat, that the Peakes were awarded their castle of Dunstonbury, & possibly Whitegrove too, that forms a three-castle power bloc on Highgarden's doorstep lasting ~900 years?). Anyway, in fleeing the Reach the Manderlys load up their ships with people (Lord Manderlys carry, among others, the title "Defender of the Dispossessed") & gold & whatever other riches they can from Dunstonbury & sail around Dorne & up the Narrow Sea to the White Knife. They're welcomed by House Stark who they bend the knee to & are awarded the Wolf's Den & its lands, tasked with defending the White Knife.
  • A thousand years after it began with the Rape of the Three Sisters, the (intermittent) War Across the Water between the Starks & the Arryns ends when the former "simply loses interest" in fighting with them for control of the Three Sisters.

Perhaps also of note to consider:

  • Centuries ago, King Harlon Stark besieges the Dreadfort after House Bolton (them again?) rebels against Winterfell & after two years he starves them out, presumably with them meeting terms & bending the knee (again).
  • After holding the Wolf's Den for ~500 years, House Greystark (a Stark cadet branch) rises in rebellion with House Bolton (really?!) against Winterfell & get themselves extinct in the process.

So to help explain how the Wolf's Den is free for the Manderlys to be given it & to not have the Boltons rebel against the Starks so many times since they first bend the knee to Winterfell it doesn't make sense they are still around:

c.702BC: Houses Greystark & Bolton form an alliance in rebellion against King Harlon Stark of Winterfell, where in the ensuing war the Greystarks are wiped out & the surviving Boltons (perhaps after having done some Stark flaying, mayhaps Harlon himself) are forced to retreat to the Dreadfort, where the Starks begin a siege.

c.700BC:

  • House Manderly are driven out of the Reach by Lord Lorimar Peake on the order of Perceon III Gardener. They load their ships with their people & their riches, fleeing into exile before they can be overwhelmed. Knowing as Reachmen they wouldn't be welcome in the Westerlands, Dorne or the Stormlands, also neither in the Riverlands where various petty kings had been warring since the fall of House Justman, & perhaps not the Vale with so much less fertile land than the Reach long consolidated under the rule of House Arryn; they may have heard of House Greystarks' fall & the vacancy of the Wolf's Den, & so head North.
  • After 2 years, the Boltons are starved out of & so surrender, bend the knee & accept terms which include no more flaying. A younger son of Winterfell, Karlon Stark, is rewarded for his efforts in the war & is given some of the Bolton's repossessed lands by his king (either Harlon, or if he died in the war, his elder brother) to form a new Stark cadet branch after the extinction of the old one, which eventually becomes House Karstark.
  • The Manderlys arrive at the White Knife looking for sanctuary. With Karlon instead already assigned to hold his new lands & make sure the Boltons are kept in check, & the Wolf's Den needing a new keeper; the Stark king wisely notes the Manderlys have the fleet, the money, the people, the desperation, & now his loyalty as he accepts their oaths spoken on bended knee & rises them up as the new lords of the castle & defenders of the White Knife. He takes their gold, but either gives (some of) it back to them for the renovation costs, or loans it back to them which they use for such.
  • With the Wolf's Den finally having the right keepers for the job, the Starks seek peace with Eyrie & Sisterton, ending the Worthless War.

Just a nitpick but the lands that are given to Karlon are not part of the historical lands of house Bolton as described in TWOIAF it is to the North-East of those lands, beyond the last river that is the border of the historical Bolton lands. Most likely it belonged to some other Lord perhaps one who joined the Boltons and Greystarks in rebellion because just two houses rebelling seems like an awfully small rebellion to me.

Among the extinct houses of the North there is a house Greenwood and the lands of the Karstarks is heavely forested so they might be a good candidate.

The lands of House Hornwood however did belong to House Bolton once, and i myself have long thought that the Hornwoods may have been vassals of the Boltons who where rewarded by making there lands directly subordinate to Winterfell, thus elevating House Hornwood from a minor house to a major regionel house. Perhaps (but this is speculation on my part) since the Hornwood lands ly between the lands of the Boltons and the Wolf's Den they prevented the Greystarks from joining there army to that of the Boltons and where rewarded for this.

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On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Baelor's calling the shots, especially be there alone, but Viserys is still the one running the show at home (if still deferring to the king's will). At the very least, he knows the betrothal is happening before it's proclaimed.

Is he? He might know it beforehand when it is proclaimed in KL considering that Viserys would be in charge of doing that on his king's orders but he would have no control over the proclamation in Sunspear and Dorne. The chances that Baelor I sent ravens to KL to ask his uncle's advice and then waited for a reply when exercising his royal power as king and head of House Targaryen and arranging a marriage for his young cousin isn't very likely.

And if King Baelor arranged something then the court not unmake, ignore, or contradict it.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Particularly if Baelor wasn't going to reveal it to the court until he got back there himself, which we know took him a little while. That's interesting to think about who actually suggest a Targaryen-Martell match.

Keep in mind that Baelor's march to Dorne would have taken months. There is little chance that Baelor and Viserys talked about the details of his peace plan prior to the walk. But even if they did - there is little chance that Baelor remembered such a talk in detail after so much time had passed.

And it is not unlikely that the Prince of Dorne decided to push Baelor a little bit by suggesting or demanding to seal the peace treaty with a marriage. The impression I get is that Prince Daeron was actually supposed to live in Dorne, perhaps even as an unofficial hostage, and that only changed when Viserys II's eventually inherited the throne. 

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Certainly (imo) if Viserys was involved he would know the value of such given Baelor's "vision". You said so yourself that Baelor was still married Daena & their (theoretical) line at least would inherit before Viserys'. But it doesn't take an archmaester to know that this guy really takes his shit seriously, isn't exactly in the best of health or takes care of himself, & it was no secret that he hadn't consummated his year-long marriage yet.

 

Keep in mind that Baelor's mental health/stability and piety were greatly influenced by his near-death experience when the vipers attacked him. This whole thing apparently deranged quite a bit. I see the Baelor prior to the viper pit as a pious man who was still willing to fulfill his duty as husband and king and eventually father children. That only changed thereafter. Only then did he annul his marriage and announce that he would never marry again and take vows of a septon.

If Baelor had already been determined to never consummate his marriage he most likely wouldn't have agreed to marry Daena in the first place. Keep in mind that Baelor would have thought, presumably, that his brother would eventually marry and have sons of his own. Only when his brother's sudden death made him king did the future of House Targaryen rest on his shoulders. And he only decided to ignore that responsibility after his return from Dorne, after his near-death experience.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

There's the possibility that Baelor himself may have even divulged to the Prince of Dorne that he wasn't intending to continue his own line either. Baelor was set on peace, but he doesn't seem to have any genuine intent on Dorne bending the knee & unifying all of the continent, even when that was Daeron's goal (& if done properly, should actually stop warring between the Crown & the Dornish altogether, not just a peace that was threatened again only 3 years after he died - Daeron had no fucking idea though, only looking at it martially with sfa concern for any kind of politics). Pretty sweet gig for the PoD & his vassals to get clemency (even though they were attacked in the first place by Daeron breaking Aegon & Nymor/Deria's "eternal" peace) for the war, no return to the utterly destructive conflict, remain independent which was just about the main reason they fought, & have a daughter eventually married to the kid who has a fair chance of inheriting the IT. Sure, Baelor laid the groundwork (if however unwittingly imo, unorthodox & just plain stupid in places), but it was Maron & Daeron who actually did it.

 

Well, we don't know the details of the peace treaty Baelor made. In any case, the whole thing was the beginning of the peace process because Daeron's betrothal to Mariah marks the beginning of a more intimate relationship between the Targaryens and the Martells. First they had to overcome the mistrust and enmity before their subjects could follow (and this wasn't easy both in Dorne and in the Targaryen territories).

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Even though the youngest son, Maekar was a better match than mad Rhaegel or book-bound Aerys:

... two of his four sons seemed all that could be wished in a knight, lord, or heir. The eldest, Prince Baelor, won the name Breakspear at the age of seventeen, following his famous victory at Princess Daenerys's wedding tourney; he defeated Daemon Blackfyre in the final tilt. And his youngest son, Prince Maekar, seemed like to show a similar prowess. (The World of Ice & Fire, Daeron II)

That is the description from TWoIaF (Yandel seems to like warriors, or pretend he does). Ser Raymun Fossoway gives us a much more accurate portrait - Baelor, Aerys, and Rhaegel are all more popular than Maekar. Sure, history might view Maekar more positive if his reign is going to turn to be successful, but back when Maekar was just the fourth son he wouldn't have been very promising, popular, or important.

Keep in mind that Maekar must have been married before the First Blackfyre Rebellion (due to Prince Daeron's age), meaning that he had not yet a chance to prove his valor in battle.

The lords and ladies trying to marry their daughters to the sons of Daeron II would have preferred the elder sons. Sure, all four were Targaryen princes, but Rhaegel and Maekar were irrelevant princes while both Baelor and Aerys (or their children) were more likely to inherit the Iron Throne one day. Whether those sons were martial warriors or not wasn't all that important. Aegon II was a fat glutton yet he was the important son of Alicent, not martial Aemond.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Your Baelors & Maekars are the ones you need to marry & have children before your Aerys' & Rhaegels, particularly if your Daeron. Get the good ones started early & first. Even if you take "seemed" as not turning out as ideal as Baelor fucking Breakspear, Maekar was still leaps & bounds ahead of asexual(?) Aerys (he gets some leeway there, but not with how utterly neglectful he was as king) who was prophecy-obsessed (though perhaps thankfully seemingly didn't take any practical, potentially lethal, action to facilitate such) & meek, mad, sickly Rhaegel (who at least seemingly did his marital duty, but the poor bastard wasn't good for too much else tbh).

We don't know how evident Aerys' tendencies were in his childhood. Not to mention that it is also possible Daeron and Mariah made betrothals for their sons even before Daeron ascended the throne. Technically one should assume that Aegon IV would have to approve them, but in light of the bad relationship between father and son Daeron might not have cared about that.

Or Aegon IV actually approved of them. After all, that could be an explanation why Baelor and Aerys had to marry Dondarrion and Penrose cousins (rather than, say, Hightower and Velaryon cousins). Those houses were neither prestigious nor powerful and were thus not very likely to help Daeron challenge the power of his royal father.

With Baelor already being 14 in the year of his grandfather's death (the same age as Daemon Blackfyre) it actually seems somewhat late to only to search for a wife at this age.

But even if that's wrong and Daeron II only arranged the matches after he became king we still don't know yet how much younger Aerys was. If he was, say, 10-12 his asexuality/disinterest in women might not have been evident yet. This kind of thing doesn't materialize in childhood, after all.

Rhaegel's Arryn match most likely wasn't made with permission of Aegon IV, so we can assume it was only made after the death of the Unworthy. It seems as if Alys was either not very fertile or Rhaegel's madness made intercourse between them rather infrequent. The twins Aelor and Aelora seem to be in Egg's age (still children in 211 AC) and Daenora is apparently not yet born by the time of TMK.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

The timings are interesting: Aelinor obviously has some strong "Targ" going on, so if she was the right age, why wasn't she married to Baelor or Maekar (particularly as a Stormlord marriage isn't gone piss off certain people as much as a Dornish one, if at all) instead? If she married Aerys before Maekar married Dyanna, why was Aerys allowed to not consummate his marriage for +20 years?! Takes his books away & he might just do what they want (as childish as it sounds, unless they did do something like that & it didn't work & they relented).

My idea is that his parents didn't know that Aerys wasn't inclined to consummate his marriage by the time they arranged the betrothal. Thereafter honor demanded that he go through with it. And there was not much harm in all that while Daeron II was still alive. Prince Aerys didn't need children of his own while his elder brother had two sons. Only after Aerys I became king did his childlessness become an issue. And only then were he and Queen Aelinor pressured to have children of their own. The fact that Aerys I dismissed the notion that he should set Aelinor aside seems to be a pretty big hint that he got along with her splendidly - at least insofar as he interacted with her and other people at all.

We don't have to assume that Daeron II's were married all at the same time, but I think we should go with the assumption that all were married before the First Blackfyre Rebellion. This is confirmed for Baelor and Maekar - and if they were married, there is no reason to believe Aerys and Rhaegel were not.

In fact, Daeron II's later decision to send Aemon to the Citadel seems to be a late realization that it might have been a mistake to arrange marriages for all his sons. After all, he had grandsons from three of them (and could have had grandsons from all four), greatly increasing the number of Targaryen princes.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Daenora only having Maegor in 232AC &/or Aelor & Aelora (afawk) having no children, makes me think think the Rhaegel-Alys marriage was not until say sometime around (or after) the 1st BfR instead of by 189AC. As I think the Arryns were likely allies of Daeron's from his days as PoD often in opposition to his father, whatever the timing of the match, it would only be a reward (& not trying to buy them) for their loyalty. Perhaps Rhaegel's match with Alys (even if she had Targaryen ancestry, which I'm nowhere near as sure as I am for Jena & Aelinor) was rather less important than at least those of the two actual important sons, Maekar & Baelor.

Rhaegel's madness as well as the many precedents we have for Targaryens struggling to have (healthy) is explanation enough for the few children he had with Alys Arryn. In addition we can also invoke the problems the Arryns seem to have to have children - Jon Arryn only got one viable child out of three marriages, after all, and Aemma Arryn only had Rhaenyra.

Without us knowing whether Arryns were at court during the days of Aegon IV it is impossible to say whether the Lord Arryn of that time was close to Daeron.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Admittedly, if Aerys didn't marry Aelinor until post 1st BfR, especially if not until the 200's, then what was the deal with him. There was already a decent number of grandchildren for Daeron by Baelor & Maekar (& perhaps Rhaegel too), including Aerion at least with full Valyrian features. So Aerys was not that important that he couldn't perhaps be better utilised (at least for himself) at say the Citadel to become a maester (though I think he would only care about the VS link, & perhaps even that only in so far as more prophecy reading) ... Idk, mayhaps Aerys was kept unmarried for a few years whilst at least two of his brothers were & then suddenly perhaps Aelinor was born, Daeron called dibs for Aerys, & so the waiting game begun (seven hells, that sentence sounds horrible!) ...

You make your argument for me. Aerys would never have been married to anyone - and especially not to a Targaryen cousin that could have been married to Baelor! - had his parents known about his inclinations and had they only began searching a bride for him by the time they already had grandsons from Baelor and Maekar. Thus it is better to assume Maekar's match after the elder sons were already betrothed. Or all four sons were betrothed around the same time. This doesn't mean that all four must have had married at the same time, but the decision that and who they would marry could have made at around the same time.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Again admittedly, your Ronnel & Aelinor proposal does fit nicely within their own tree at least, & so would constitute an early Aerys-Aelinor match ... If so though, why the hell was Aerys not allowed to consummate the marriage for ~20 years before he even became king himself?! Really, I don't see how such could've done Daeron any political good, perhaps quite the contrary ...

Well, it wasn't about allowance but rather about inclination? Ronnel's daughter was still the wife of a Targaryen prince, children or not.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

I'm guessing there's historical bias here: whether from Runciter himself (or perhaps even Eustace who is confirmed to have been heavily biased) as the source or later by Gyldayn as the writer. The maesters, both the sources & later chroniclers alike, manipulate the text & history to make themselves (& at times the Hightowers & Faith, also of Oldtown) essentially look better. If Viserys did suggest Laena, I don't doubt that there's a fair chance Alicent caught his eye given what we know of his personality, that he had (likely, I think that's one reason why he was executed, even when Ser Perkin wasn't - because he had knighted so many men he was better to keep alive - & the exposed fake, Gaemon, wasn't; to remove another rival of Aegon II) a bastard around the time Alicent was pregnant with Prince Daeron, & there were rumours (though possibly/likely untrue?) that he had an affair with Alicent (who was also rumoured, this more unlikely imo, to have slept with Daemon earlier) before Aemma even died. Keep in mind who would Runciter be better to keep happy - Lord Hightower of Oldtown's brother or Lord Velaryon who likely wouldn't find out that he himself suggested/supported Alicent & not the king (&/or other/s on the Small Council besides Otto). If there's minutes or anything like that being kept of the SC meetings - the GM is probably going to be the one keeping such - easy for Runciter to manipulate if need be. Certainly we can both agree though that Otto was the main supporter behind the Alicent match.

We have no reason to assume that Grand Maester Runciter was close to the Hightowers or had some secret Citadel agenda. While we don't know anything to the contrary I'm more inclined to believe the man was loyal to his king and doing his best in suggesting a bride that minimize the risk of an eventual civil war. Laena was the best candidate to accomplish this.

It is not very likely that Gyldayn's direct source here is Septon Eustace, by the way. This was an event at the very beginning of the reign of Viserys I, and the man seems to have to lived long enough after the Dance to write his book. 

There are three rumors about Alicent in circulation - that she was not only the nurse but also the lover of the Old King (technically possible but the least likely, I think), that she had affair with Prince Daemon before she married Viserys I (very likely, in my opinion, considering that it would help explain why the hell Otto Hightower hated Daemon as much as he did - a social climber of his kind should have done anything in his power to win the friendship of the heir presumptive, not his enmity), and that she and Viserys I already had an affair while Queen Aemma yet lived (also pretty likely considering that Viserys I was still a young man at that point, trapped in an arranged marriage with a woman he had to marry when she was eleven, and not likely to force himself on his pregnant woman to prevent the risk of another miscarriage).

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Rhaena only had daughters with Garmund Hightower so unless they married back into House Hightower (a cousin or uncle) they & their children would take the House name of the husband, or if there were any who died young, or never married, or were widowed without children; they would die as a Hightower without passing it on. Though I suspect that the Hightowers have GEotD ancestry & so this may have made Rhaena's daughters more likely to retain Valyrian(like) feature/s, we have no idea what Houses any married into & have children with (though Aelinor, Jena &/or Alys are possibilities).

No, if Garmund Hightower was the Lord of Oldtown and if he only had five daughters (no children from hypothetical other wives) then his eldest daughter by Rhaena would have inherited the Hightower and Oldtown, and her husband and children would have kept her name, just as Arys Oakheart and the sons of Lady Waynwood also carry the names of their mother.

It is, of course, also possible that Garmund's eldest daughter also married a Hightower cousin if such were around at that time. But we don't know how likely that is in light of the bloodletting during the Dance. Quite a few Hightowers were killed in that war. Otto's entire brood, it seems.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Even if Daeron II wasn't fond of it, he was making these (as we follow) matches of his sons to various cousins - it didn't get in the way off that.

 

Gyldayn tells us in George's own word how the traditional Valyrian marriage custom worked (that's in the sidebar in Aenys's section, and is quoted verbatim from 'The Sons of the Dragon'. Sibling marriages are considered ideal. When that's not possible uncles, aunts, or cousins step in. Daeron II had no first cousins to marry (at least not yet), nor were there any second cousins. Even Elaena had no female children in the right age (she only married Ronnel Penrose early on in Daeron II's reign). Thus the closest female relations of Daeron II would have to be searched and found among the descendants of Rhaena's five daughters (or whatever children Baela and Alyn had - but in their case we have no idea how many children they had nor whether there were any daughters in the right age).

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Sure that's definitely not sibling, avuncular, or even first-cousin incest; but if he genuinely wanted to avoid it, he'd make matches where there was no common (Targaryen) ancestry, however far back. He also possibly supported/made the Aelor-Aelora & Aegon-Daella (if indeed they were betrothed) matches.

Egg and Daella were definitely betrothed. Egg himself informs Dunk and the reader about that fact in TSS. And they would have been betrothed to each other while their royal grandfather yet lived considering that Egg was with Dunk since before Daeron II died.

If Daeron II had arranged no cousin-marriages for his sons one should assume he would chosen brides from nobler and more powerful families - Lannister, Tyrell, Baratheon, Tully, Hightower, and the like. Just as Aegon V later tried to do. A political marriage with a Dondarrion or Penrose would have made little sense. Even if Daeron II tried to ensure the success of his Dornish plans this would have worked much better had the Tyrells, the Baratheons, or the Lannisters firmly on his sides. Those would have given him the necessary strength to crush any hint of a rebellion in the Marches.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

The Targaryens still cared a lot about blood purity after the dragons died::

  • Viserys married his children, Aegon & Naerys, together likely at least part-wise to reaffirm their "Targaryeness" following the anti-Rogare (his wife Larra being of that family) sentiment that was heavy in the court during the Regency & likely even after.

 

We should actually count Larra Rogare among the Targaryens in all but the name considering she had as much (or even more) Valyrian beauty as the average Targaryen woman. She introduced a non-Targaryen trait into the family, to be sure, but it was also a Valyrian trait, and the Rogares are most likely descendants of a dragonlord family (founded by a dragonless branch settling in Lys).

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

The Velaryons likely mainly dropped after Oakenfist was because much of their wealth was lost during the Sack of Driftmark during the Dance, & they lost a fair amount of naval strength then too, & then even more when Alyn was lost at sea likely with/leading Aegon IV's failed invasion of Dorne fleet which is scattered & effectively destroyed in a storm. Presumably also they just didn't have any female members a/v at the right times, or did but the king/s went with some other choice for whatever reason.

There weren't many Targaryens Velaryon girls could have married - if we assume there were no Velaryon girls to marry one of Daeron II's son (I'm pretty sure at least one would have gotten one of those had they existed). Valarr got an arranged marriage Daeron the Drunk had later to continue. Egg was supposed to marry his sister, Aelor and Aelora married each other, and Aerion married Daenora. We have no ideas about the spouses of Princess Vaella or Prince Maegor (could very well have been a Velaryon if they ever married).

Two Aegon V's sons could have married their sisters if the king hadn't made political matches with daughters from the great noble families. Jaehaerys I ended up with Shaera anyway. Aerys had a sister to marry. Only Rhaegar could have married a Velaryon, and the fact that he didn't suggests that Lord Lucerys had no daughter in the right age (and we have no reason to believe Monford Velaryon has a sister, anyway).

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

As Lords Manfred & Beric both have red-gold hair (no word on eye colour), it's fair to assume that this might be a genetic trait common in House Dondarrion, but that doesn't mean that Jena &/or some other Dondarrion/s who we don't know what looked like, couldn't have had Valyrian feature/s.

Indeed, especially since there are hints there were Baratheons with Valyrian hair - Rhaenys' had Valyrian features, making it not unlikely at all that Jocelyn Baratheon inherited the Valyrian features of her mother (I don't think Prince Aemon would have been married to a woman who was likely to pass down her black hair to Targaryen children).

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Indeed. I think it's extremely likely that Corlys married Baela & Alyn together (to bind their claims to Driftmark, plus further legitimise Alyn, & reaffirm the Targaryen-Velaryon relationship after all the harm it took during the Dance) after Aegon III's ascension (so Baela at least was a/v for the Pact of Ice & Fire, but Cregs chose Black Aly instead) & his own death the next year. It also gives further legitimacy to Alyn (only ~16!) wanting his grandfather's Regent position after the Sea Snake's death AND being the admiral of the Velaryon fleet by this time (I'm guessing he captained his own ship at least eventually during the Dance & that perhaps "cousin Daeron" had the command (even Corlys was obviously too old to actually be on the water fighting), but made some sort of dire mistake to help explain in-universe the in-universe & meta nightmare that is the Sack of Driftmark.

Sure, my point just is that Corlys clearly wanting Alyn and Baela taking Driftmark after his death doesn't make it so. The succession could be challenged just as it once was when Corlys seemed to be dying and Vaemond tried to steal Driftmark from Jace and Baela.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

If Daeron was an experienced naval commander (he may have even fought for Daemon & Corlys in the Stepstones) it wouldn't be a huge leap that he would at least co-admiral with the extremely young Alyn (even with him being lord). If Daeron did have the was the admiral during the Gullet, then he may have stepped down or been demoted for Alyn to at least eventually rise. Unless Corlys held it on top of being a Regent, I'd guess that either Alyn (far more likely) or Daeron was named Master of Ships straight from the outset of the Regency (hell, possibly even before when Corlys was on Aegon II's Small Council). I definitely think Alyn was MoS by the time he was sent against Ryndoon in 133AC.

Daenaera's young age could be a hint that Daeron wasn't all that old when she was introduced to Aegon III. Perhaps in his early twenties or so when his daughter married the king.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

And despite seemingly not being a Regent at all, Oakenfist is noted as Peake's main rival - indeed that he sent Alyn against the Ironborn (perhaps also with Ryndoon too) hoping he would die, also further explains Baela having already been married to Alyn. I 100% think Peake had Jaehaera murdered (unlike her mother which was actually suicide) & we know he pushed very hard for the king to be matched to his own daughter (Baela & Rhaena even had to, again imo, pre-arrange with Aegon III to choose Daenaera at the great ball to thwart him). I think Peake also wanted Baela for his own House. I'm guessing Rhaena was married to Corwyn Corbray, brother of the commander of the Vale's army & Aegon's first Protector of the Realm, before Peake became a Regent (perhaps even whilst she was still in the Vale, after all, Luke had died pretty early & even if she would've been meant to marry Joff instead, he was dead before even halfway-130) to help explain how he didn't get his hands on her/make an attempt. Mayhaps I'm Peake bashing, but I wonder if he may have even somehow ordered Corwyn's death by crossbow at a parley at Runestone &/or Lady Jeyne Arryn's "illness" in Gulltown ... Both locations are close & likely happened around the same time imo (certainly they were the same year, the same one when Peake resigned because nobody (likely including Corwyn & Jeyne) wanted to give him any more royal power.

No, the better explanation there is that Lady Jeyne Arryn died childless (most likely of the Winter Fever, as everybody else in these days) and Corwyn was drawn into a succession squabble in the Vale. There would have been many distant Arryn cousins claiming the Vale, and the Royces might have supported an Arryn married to a Royce while Corwyn might have stuck with an Arryn married to a Corbray.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Oh & that the Rogares "broke the Hand's (Peake) power", I also think his temper-tantrum resignation was when Alyn brought Viserys back from Lys & Peake unsuccessfully pushed for the annulment of Viserys' marriage to Larra say on the grounds that her brothers (& so the Rogare bank) had swindled the Iron Throne for still demanding a ransom even though they had bound Prince Viserys to them through marriage.

 

The Rogares most likely rose to great power at court after their arrival due to their vast wealth. There were regents and all but if Prince Viserys' father-in-law can offer the Iron Throne vast loans (or perhaps even money for free) the real power at court would quickly flow to them. Peake and the others could never compete with them. At that time the Rogares were as wealthy as the Iron Bank.

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Not on Daemon & Rhea specifically, but addresses them, this is some pretty good speculation on how the match perhaps came to be. Yeah unless their younger brother Prince Aegon lived long enough (to end up dying in the Stepstones in Daemon & Corlys' war against the Triarchy?), Viserys & Daemon seem to have been the only males of House Targaryen left (certainly in the male-line anyway) until Viserys' first son with Alicent, another Prince Aegon, was born in 107AC.

 

Prince Aegon is hopefully turning out to be the obscure Ape Prince Axell Florent talked about in ADwD. Remember the story about the Targaryen prince who kept an ape at court, dressed him in his dead son's clothes, and used to offer his hand in marriage to the daughter of some lord (something those men always politely refused). If that's the case then this Aegon should have lived into the 110s at least, considering that he either had a son old enough to marry before he died or a son who, in person of the ape, would be technically old enough to marry even if the boy himself had died in the cradle.

This Prince Aegon would most likely be one of the madder Targaryens, likely to not feature all that prominently in the histories of the kings. But I think he would have been mentioned in Gyldayn's complete account on the reign of Viserys I. Thinking about it - that Aegon could have been a Targaryen married to another Baratheon, perhaps a sister of Lord Borros?

On 21.11.2016 at 6:44 PM, Lord Corlys Velaryon said:

Actually, there's a fair chance that Archmaester Vaegon (Targaryen), their uncle, was still alive; but obviously he doesn't really count, unable to inherit. Yeah the dynamics of Daemon-Rhea children is weird ... Daemon would still be a prince, but perhaps there would be a really weird & rare occurrence of a Targaryen prince's (one who was actually arguably his brother's heir with the 92AC & 101AC precedents until Aegon's birth) children (even males) not having the royal title or House name. That is of course if it was decided that Rhea would inherit Runestone (& so their kids could lose their royal claim through their father). There's not going to be a House Targaryen of Runestone cadet branch certainly, if not by blood, but by name wiping out ancient House Royce. The more likely alternative is that Rhea would give up her claim to Runestone with the children being royal. Mariah Martell was older than Maron & so had to give up her claim to Sunspear by the time she married future Daeron II. And then there's Aemma herself who may have been Lord Rodrik's heir (particularly if Daella was his first wife) & whether she was or not, she would've given up any claim to the Eyrie upon marrying Viserys.

 

Daemon tried to claim Runestone as Rhea's consort after her death. Whether children of theirs would have been Targaryens or Royces is difficult to say. My gut tells me that Daemon would have insisted that they bear his name, and thus the Targaryens of Runestone would most likely have replaced the Royces of Runestone - just as the Baratheons replaced the Durrandons.

It is not clear whether Daella was Lord Rodrik's first wife nor do we have to believe she had to give up her claim to the Eyrie upon her marriage. Such things could have been postponed until such a time as Lord Rodrik died without a son.

Lady Jeyne does not seem to be Aemma's half-sister, by the way. Rhaenyra is called her cousin, not her niece, so Jeyne is more likely to be the daughter of a son of Rodrik from a wife he had before or after Daella.

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