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U.S. Elections: 9,444 days


lokisnow

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I'm not concerned, but I am getting a couple jitters now; just due to how high the stakes are. At this point there now is a decent amount of evidence that the race has tightened again to some extent. At the same time, there's still a decent amount of evidence that it hasn't in any meaningful way; but its definitely more of a mixed bag right now.

Over the weekend it looked like Clinton was up between 8-10 points, now its looking more like 4-6 points. It is almost entirely to Trump regaining support among registered Republicans in the absence of bad stories about him getting a lot of coverage. Which also suggests that maybe Trump was never down quite as much as it looked. 

But its hard to reconcile a national race at only +5 or so based on the state polls that are out there. The usual swing state polls do mostly fit that kind of margin, but based on what's out there over in the usual safe states; its hard to see where Trump is racking up the votes to keep the national margin relatively close. Too many of the big red states look way closer than normal and while Republicans do get their largest amounts of raw votes from big blue states (Romney got more votes from California than any other state; its just that big), none of them look closer than usual. And the smaller safe blue and red states mostly look the way they always do, certainly not shifted enough to make up for Trump's raw vote losses in places like Texas, Georgia, and Arizona.

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Is anyone surprised that Trump said we should just cancel the election and name him Dictator President? 

46 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

No, both parties have been politicizing the Judiciary for some time.  Both are responsible for their own actions.

Both sides have blood on their hands, but to suggest that it's equal is utter and complete nonsense. 

21 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm not concerned, but I am getting a couple jitters now; just due to how high the stakes are. At this point there now is a decent amount of evidence that the race has tightened again to some extent. At the same time, there's still a decent amount of evidence that it hasn't in any meaningful way; but its definitely more of a mixed bag right now.

Over the weekend it looked like Clinton was up between 8-10 points, now its looking more like 4-6 points. It is almost entirely to Trump regaining support among registered Republicans in the absence of bad stories about him getting a lot of coverage. Which also suggests that maybe Trump was never down quite as much as it looked. 

Glad to see you're being more realistic. 

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Sam Wang's site uses state polls mainly to calculate a meta-margin, and that's been stuck at 4% +/- a little bit throughout this election (even now). In other words, it seems highly stable, with a most probable outcome of 330 EV for Clinton. In that sense, the race hasn't shifted a whole lot when it comes to electoral votes. It is still an interesting question where Trump is making up his numbers, but I think there are enough of those in PA and some of the other northeastern states to make up the margin.

Having said that, I think if Trump eventually carries Ohio, then the Clinton EV might drop to 315 or so.

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The Judicial nomination process was always the one area that I do think that there is more equitable blame than others.  

I will always think that the Democrats did right with Bork but cannot deny it started a path down where we are.  It is tolerable result given what Bork would of done on the S.C.

I do not care if the filibuster is ended for Judicial nominees.  It is now broken beyond repair and it is now doing harm to the Judicial branch.  It will give more importance toward Senatorial elections and just reinforce election has consequences . 

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39 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Glad to see you're being more realistic. 

I've always been realistic. Earlier this week there was no evidence of tightening, now there is.

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The Republican party as we know it is dying. What we are witnessing are death throes. I have been following politics, not just in the US,  for about 40+ years. Political movements do tend to follow predictable trends. When they are losing their base, the first symptom is that the leaders tend to become more and more extreme as they either try to find the base or create a new base. As a result the base keeps shrinking and the movement dies.

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15 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

Scot, I have to admit that when I hear the phrase "both parties" I usually tune out the rest.

Tracker,

That's your call.  Both parties have engaged in shenanigans regarding judicial appointments.  That is not claiming all actions are equivalent, but that both parties have done it.

Because of both parties Judicial appointments are now almost a purely political process.  A friend who is a Judge, a very good and diligent judge, with whom I tend to disagree with politically, didn't make it onto the federal bench because of Republican obstructionism.  I'm sure the same is true for Republican nominees to the Federal bench.

It's bullshit.  I've said for years the only issue for appointment should be qualification.  If the individual is qualified they should be confirmed regardless of their personal political beliefs or political affilations.

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19 minutes ago, maarsen said:

The Republican party as we know it is dying. What we are witnessing are death throes. I have been following politics, not just in the US,  for about 40+ years. Political movements do tend to follow predictable trends. When they are losing their base, the first symptom is that the leaders tend to become more and more extreme as they either try to find the base or create a new base. As a result the base keeps shrinking and the movement dies.

I'll believe it when they let go of most of the state governments they hold and the House. 

So I certainly wouldn't take such a stance unless the Dems win big in the midterms (defying the result of low Democrat turnout and an energized GOP base looking to stop Clinton like Obama)

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11 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Tracker,

That's your call.  Both parties have engaged in shenanigans regarding judicial appointments.  That is not claiming all actions are equivalent, but that both parties have done it.

Because of both parties Judicial appointments are now almost a purely political process.  A friend who is a Judge, a very good and diligent judge, with whom I tend to disagree with politically, didn't make it onto the federal bench because of Republican obstructionism.  I'm sure the same is true for Republican nominees to the Federal bench.

It's bullshit.  I've said for years the only issue for appointment should be qualification.  If the individual is qualified they should be confirmed regardless of their personal political beliefs or political affilations.

Agreed.  I fear we'll never go back to a climate that would permit a conservative president (Hoover) to appoint a liberal justice (Cardozo) based on merit, or vice versa.  We're at the point where both Presidential candidates are openly stating that they will only appoint nominees who will carry out their own political policies.  Gross.

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12 minutes ago, Castel said:

I'll believe it when they let go of most of the state governments they hold and the House. 

So I certainly wouldn't take such a stance unless the Dems win big in the midterms (defying the result of low Democrat turnout and an energized GOP base looking to stop Clinton like Obama)

I agree.  Republicans currently enjoy an incredibly strong position in state legislatures.  The Trump debacle is hiding the fact that the 2016 election was an opportunity to have a strong majority of state and federal power.  If Republicans had nominated someone like Kasich, they would probably be looking at control of the Presidency, both Houses, the SC, and the vast majority of state legislatures and governorships. 

This isn't a party at the nadir of political power, this is one that is still very strong but struggling with internal divisions.

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Organizations don't always die quickly. There will always be those members who hold onto the bitter end, or till death. Like science, organizations/movements advance with the death of their opponents. That is a paraphrase of a  Max Planck quote , that just came in the latest copy of Scientific American, for those that may be wondering. 

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i don't get this colloquy. judicial appointments are always already inherently political events.  how could they not be?  FFS kids, this is one ofthe most severe matters of the polis.  worthless to recriminate the other side for doing exactly what the process envisions in the participation of the senate.  

the remedy of course is for the president adjourn the non-participating legislature pursuant to art. II section 3 and fill vacancies pursuant to art. II  section 2, which process can go on indefinitely, a series of ad hoc commissions to the supreme court &c.  

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19 minutes ago, Tempra said:

Agreed.  I fear we'll never go back to a climate that would permit a conservative president (Hoover) to appoint a liberal justice (Cardozo) based on merit, or vice versa.  We're at the point where both Presidential candidates are openly stating that they will only appoint nominees who will carry out their own political policies.  Gross.

Most Judges who are ideology different then the President that nominated them are usually viewed by that President as their greatest regret.  

I do not think we should 'memberberry Supreme Court appointments to recognize that we are in broken situtation.

member berries:

Spoiler

 

 

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