Fez Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 I'm not concerned, but I am getting a couple jitters now; just due to how high the stakes are. At this point there now is a decent amount of evidence that the race has tightened again to some extent. At the same time, there's still a decent amount of evidence that it hasn't in any meaningful way; but its definitely more of a mixed bag right now. Over the weekend it looked like Clinton was up between 8-10 points, now its looking more like 4-6 points. It is almost entirely to Trump regaining support among registered Republicans in the absence of bad stories about him getting a lot of coverage. Which also suggests that maybe Trump was never down quite as much as it looked. But its hard to reconcile a national race at only +5 or so based on the state polls that are out there. The usual swing state polls do mostly fit that kind of margin, but based on what's out there over in the usual safe states; its hard to see where Trump is racking up the votes to keep the national margin relatively close. Too many of the big red states look way closer than normal and while Republicans do get their largest amounts of raw votes from big blue states (Romney got more votes from California than any other state; its just that big), none of them look closer than usual. And the smaller safe blue and red states mostly look the way they always do, certainly not shifted enough to make up for Trump's raw vote losses in places like Texas, Georgia, and Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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