Little Walder and His Bag of Silver

[YOVMO]

12 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

That seems to be mostly a southron/Targ/whose ass is in the pokey chair rule. Even after that council came to that decision, it was ignored by the Targ's atleast twice that I can think of off the top of my brain. One of those times led to the start of the DoD. Dorne also follows their own way of inheritance, equal promigenture, meaning, it goes to son or daughter, whichever is first.

THis is fair enough. I guess it brings up the question of how binding a great council is in terms of precedence especially with regard to the line of the King. If a minor lord goes around these customs I suppose the aggrieved party could petition a great lord and in a great house a petition could be made to the throne....that said, where does an aggrieved party go if we are talking about the royal family. A guy like Rhaegar, yeah, he could have marshalled all 7 kingdoms behind him. But if it came down to a question between (assuming a real) (f)Aegon versus (assuming an alive) Viscerys. Really it has to be war.

12 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

The north, at the moment especially, is being held by women in the main houses: Mormont, House Dustin, Alys Karstark (now merging into House Thenn). There is probably another I can't think of at the moment, but I am sure some other smarty will remember.

I have been thinking that House Thennstark would be such a bad ass name.

12 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Anyway, this concept of only males can inherit will change to the equal promigenture in the near future with Jon and how he is integrating the Free Folk into the north. He already is putting females in his defenses against the Others and assigned Queensgate to Morna. Also, it is quite possible that Dany will also abolish this rule if she is the one to sit the IT or rule a part of Westeros for any amount of time. Even before the Council of 101, a few other female Targs hated this rule and did their best to undo it (without much success, obviously).

I suppose this is possible should Dany ever sit the IT. However, I don't believe that either Dany or the chair will make it to the end of the series. That said, you are absolutely correct that there is a theme, especially in the north, where equal primogeniture is happening as it has always happened in Dorne. It would be interesting to see more.....hopefully we will see TWOW one day though my optimism that it will ever be published fails a little more each day. 

[The Fattest Leech]

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

Agreed that the IT council decision is about the IT not necessarily a house seat.

House Mormont is held by women because Jeor abdicated and Jorah was an exile. There was no male heir at the time that Jorah fled, and these women specifically use a trick to keep from being married and have someone usurp the house in name through marriage.

House Dustin: Lady Dustin is holding House Dustin as the widow of Lord Dustin. And there are no male heirs, heck not even female heirs.

Correct. And I guess there were no male cousins or such for the House to go to after Wm died? Either way, Lady Dustin still holds a huge amount of sway and respect for being a woman. Lord Bolton, who clearly has no respect for women (see First Night) still sees fit to not only try to make her loyal to him, but also allows her to host the wedding, which puts her in direct contact with fArya and Theon.

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

Alys Karstark is not the head of House Karstark. That is her older brother who's in a cell in Maidenpool.

 But isn't Alys the heir, which is why she had to get to Jon, to have him help save her place because the other males in her family were trying to usurp themselves by marrying to her?

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

House Frey is not a Northern house.

Agreed.

[Greywater-Watch]

I don not buy the story of one Frey killing the other. I always thought (and still do so) that a Northman (probably one of Manderly's soldiers) killed the young Frey. Hoping it would be attributed to the serial killer (for us readers known: Abel's washerwomen). If or not to the knowledge or even order of Lord Manderly, I am not sure.

[sweetsunray]

41 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Theon says that Roose looks afraid for the first time he has ever seen, if Roose is loosing his cool he is not the one behind it.

If anyone conspired or manipulated Big Walder, it sure wasn't Roose imo, I agree. There's lots of stuff on which Theon's POV is unreliable, but it's not recognizing fear in a man like Roose's eyes. Theon knows a thing or two about fear, and he's had several months in the company of Roose as well as knows him from the time Ned Stark was still Lord of WF. While Roose planned the RW along with Walder Frey, he himself stayed out of the killing during the RW. It was one of his men who knifed Robb, not Roose himself. When Hosteen slashes Manderly's throat I think Roose does fear for guest right under the roof he claims to command at that moment. He sends the Freys and Manderlys out so that if they kill each other they do outside of WF.

[YOVMO]

6 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

If there was a conspiracy here, I would lay it on Mance and Mance alone.  He could've legitimately played dice with Little Walder, and purposefully lost.  If he was disguised as a White Harbor man and never paid up that would have wound up putting Frey and WH men at each others throats anyway, without having to kill the kid.  In this instance Big Walders story was actually true, but didn't know it was a setup.

There is no particular reason that the claim that it would be laid on Mance and Mance alone is bad. The thing is, Mance is pretty cunning. He is a very good strategist. Mance really doesn't get anything out of this....at least that I can see. The best you can say is that he gets a chance to escape when the Manderly and Frey forces leave. However, he already had a solid escape plan and leaving when the army goes out to meet Stannis is at least as dangerous and probably more dangerous than his original plans. Further, if we assume that he did want the Manderly and Frey armies gone we would also have to assume that Mance guessed that getting Little Walder Frey killed would have the eventual effect of Roose Bolton sending Frey and Manderly out. Roose could just as easily have beheaded Hosteen Frey for his actions or just broke the fight up and ordered them to stay apart or just sent out manderly or just sent out frey. My feeling that it was Roose was two fold. The first being that many of the consequences from Little Walder's death benefited him and also that Roose was really the only person (short of MAYBE Ramsay) who could have know how he would react.

6 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I still think it's more likely that Big Walder just took advantage of the situation.  Roose wants to rule the north, but at the same time the Freys are his most loyal troops so getting rid of them is not ideal.

I don't think that the Frey's are his most loyal troops at all. In fact, the Dreadfort army are his most loyal troops. I think he trusts all the other houses as being equally trustworthy...which is to say not at all.

6 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

 

 After the incident he realizes he has to get rid of the Freys and Manderlys so he does but is not happy about it. The best scenario for him was everyone staying there under his roof peacefully while Stannis starved, eventually he would take Torrhens square from the Ironborn, and then Winter sets in so people just calmed down and went home for a couple of years while Ramsay had a baby or two on (F)Arya.

He doesn't seem happy about it, not. However, the way it plays out to my thinking I can't imagine the situation being any better. Stannis is going to hit the Walls of Winterfell in a day or two. 500 or 5000 troops on the inside do not make a significant difference for Roose. The walls will hold if they are sufficiently manned....at least for a while. Stannis will starve first if he tries to starve them out and Winterfell is notoriously difficult to siege if properly manned. By sending out the manderly and frey forces he accomplishes a few things. It is quite possible that Frey and Manderly troops will cut the snow weary army of Stannis to pieces and end the entire war. Good for Stannis. It is possible that Stannis beats both house Frey and House Manderly. However, there is no way he does it without taking significant losses which means his siege of winterfell will be that much harder. Win for stannis. And Roose will have about 4000 fewer mouths (and horses) to feed win for stannis. Win or loose the second strongest house in the North and a house that Stannis has no love or trust for, House Manderly, will take sufficient enough losses that Roose's power in the north will be further tightened. Win for Roose. Plus Walder Frey has no reason to chastise Roose for sending Frey men out to battle as Hosteen's direct and bloody attack on Wyman Manderly would have been enough of a reason even for a prickly guy like Walder Frey (especially if Roose wins the war and is confirmed Warden of the North.....after all, he has a Frey wife) so again, win for Roose.

 

So, while you are right in that Roose Bolton doesn't seem happy about sending the Manderly and Frey forces out of Winterfell to attack Stannis...there is really no reason for him not to be...in fact, everything that could possibly come of sending them out goes in his favor....but it is important that he doesn't seem happy about it because seeming happy might implicate him.

Don't forget the added bonus that by killing Little Walder off Roose gets to Piss on Ramsay which is like a cherry on top of his Bolton sundae

 

[YOVMO]

10 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

He sends the Freys and Manderlys out so that if they kill each other they do outside of WF.

I really feel that almost everything you have said in this thread has been deadly accurate....but I just don't see Roose Bolton ever putting guest right above his personal ambitions.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

15 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I don not buy the story of one Frey killing the other. I always thought (and still do so) that a Northman (probably one of Manderly's soldiers) killed the young Frey. Hoping it would be attributed to the serial killer (for us readers known: Abel's washerwomen). If or not to the knowledge or even order of Lord Manderly, I am not sure.

So we just ignore the blood spatter on BW? Ignore the motivation he has to do it? 

Also, after Lord Walder dies we will see lots of Freys killing each other, IMO.

[sweetsunray]

4 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

 But isn't Alys the heir, which is why she had to get to Jon, to have him help save her place because the other males in her family were trying to usurp themselves by marrying to her?

She's Harrion's heir yes. In her case, she comes before her uncle. But the Lord of Karhold is still alive. The uncle and brothers hoped to provoke the crown into beheading Harrion Karstark who's their hostage for them siding with Stannis (while they're really not). Arnulf is Alys's and Harrion's great uncle, and tried to force Alys into marrying his own eldest son Cregan (her 2nd cousin?or is that 2nd cousin once removed?).

Personally, I think it's somewhat fluid. It all depends on how willing are people to follow the sister or daughter over an uncle or brother of the belated lord. And whether the lady in question has the age and army behind her to enforce it.

In the Freys case: Walder Frey himself is so adamant about "only Freys", even with regards the girls, and the brood crow over being one of Walder's sons over being his grandsons... Overall I think Freys in practice will follow men, and young grandsons who are still minors can expect end up being drowned by uncles just to make sure. Let's say that Edwyn dies. Black Walder versus a 9 year old Walda? And the other Freys know it. With such a large family, so many sons and grandsons, who are so selfish and murderous, I think it's a safe bet they will pretty much ignore any female heirs. 

[sweetsunray]

6 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

I really feel that almost everything you have said in this thread has been deadly accurate....but I just don't see Roose Bolton ever putting guest right above his personal ambitions.

I actually don't think Roose Bolton will break guest right himself if he can avoid it. As the host he becomes even more responsible. As a guest he can walk out and not personally wield a knife or be even present. He goes to the bathroom. But as a host allowing one guest to kill another, when he can just as well send them out... The Boltons are an ancient Northerner house, and Roose has a peculiar habbit of being rather careful. That he might be ambitious and an enemy of House Stark is clear - but he seems to try and play by the gods' rules, that is - he keeps his own hands clean.

[The Fattest Leech]

4 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

She's Harrion's heir yes. In her case, she comes before her uncle. But the Lord of Karhold is still alive. The uncle and brothers hoped to provoke the crown into beheading Harrion Karstark who's their hostage for them siding with Stannis (while they're really not). Arnulf is Alys's and Harrion's great uncle, and tried to force Alys into marrying his own eldest son Cregan (her 2nd cousin?or is that 2nd cousin once removed?).

I just double checked and yes, Harrion is captive, but still alive. I thought he was mentioned as dead already and that is why the uncles and cousins moved in on Alys so hard and fast. Agreed with the rest.

4 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Personally, I think it's somewhat fluid. It all depends on how willing are people to follow the sister or daughter over an uncle or brother of the belated lord. And whether the lady in question has the age and army behind her to enforce it.

I think George mentioned in a SSM somewhere that inheritance can be fluid as well. Whoever is next will be at the benefit of someone else in many cases. Agreed.

4 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

In the Freys case: Walder Frey himself is so adamant about "only Freys", even with regards the girls, and the brood crow over being one of Walder's sons over being his grandsons... Overall I think Freys in practice will follow men, and young grandsons who are still minors can expect end up being drowned by uncles just to make sure. Let's say that Edwyn dies. Black Walder versus a 9 year old Walda? And the other Freys know it. With such a large family, so many sons and grandsons, who are so selfish and murderous, I think it's a safe bet they will pretty much ignore any female heirs. 

Oh, I definitely agree with this. Current Lord Walder wants his seed to spread all over so that his family can always have a claim on something. They are another case of women are only brood mares (gross), which means we will be seeing quite a few dying soon.

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

I just double checked and yes, Harrion is captive, but still alive. I thought he was mentioned as dead already and that is why the uncles and cousins moved in on Alys so hard and fast. Agreed with the rest.

I think George mentioned in a SSM somewhere that inheritance can be fluid as well. Whoever is next will be at the benefit of someone else in many cases. Agreed.

Oh, I definitely agree with this. Current Lord Walder wants his seed to spread all over so that his family can always have a claim on something. They are another case of women are only brood mares (gross), which means we will be seeing quite a few dying soon.

And being married before they've even flowered to half-brothers and cousins. I've been wondering about Black Walder and him not having married yet, but sleeping with plenty of wives of his possibel rivals, including his brothers. LS doesn't need to kill children or girls for that matter. Just hit hard on a few adult male Freys, with Walder Frey and Emmon Frey as #1 mark and shit will hit the fan amongst the Freys.

[YOVMO]

1 minute ago, sweetsunray said:

I actually don't think Roose Bolton will break guest right himself if he can avoid it. As the host he becomes even more responsible. As a guest he can walk out and not personally wield a knife or be even present. He goes to the bathroom. But as a host allowing one guest to kill another, when he can just as well send them out... The Boltons are an ancient Northerner house, and Roose has a peculiar habbit of being rather careful. That he might be ambitious and an enemy of House Stark is clear - but he seems to try and play by the gods' rules, that is - he keeps his own hands clean.

I can see what you are saying about not doing it himself. But then again, Tywin Lannister didn't have to actually kill the Reynes himself. He commanded armies. I am sure that any northerner would do their level best to avoid personally breaking guest right which is why (as a hypothetical assume Roose complicity just for the sake of the argument) he would have Big Walder kill Little Walder. Frey's are at the throats (or chins) of Manderly's and no one from house Bolton is directly involved...let alone Roose himself. That fits with what you have said.

 

Further, and to be clear, Roose is not the host of this gathering. Roose is the Lord of the Dreadfort. Ramsay is the current Lord of Winterfell. Because of this neither the Frey's or the Manderly's are guests of Roose Bolton but rather Frey, Manderly and Roose himself are guests of Ramsay.

 

Obviously it is Roose who is calling the shots, but we are talking about technicalities. No Bolton men have been involved in the violence, Roose Bolton is not the Lord of Winterfell nor are the Frey's or Manderly's under his roof and there are numerous benefits to Roose that Frey and Bolton enmity should turn violent and he be able to send them out to war while, at the same time, looking as if it is the last thing he wanted.

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

I can see what you are saying about not doing it himself. But then again, Tywin Lannister didn't have to actually kill the Reynes himself. He commanded armies. I am sure that any northerner would do their level best to avoid personally breaking guest right which is why (as a hypothetical assume Roose complicity just for the sake of the argument) he would have Big Walder kill Little Walder.

The problem is that Roose isn't a guest at WF. He's the host there. When one guest kills another guest with the acknowledgement of the host, then the host is breaking guest right, even if he did not wield the knife.

And yes Roose is the host, because they are his armies. He's the Warden. They all came to WF, because Roose decided it. I really don't think that Roose believes he can wiggle on that with the Old Gods - "Look, my son was the host of the party at WF." It's the marriage that makes Ramsay Lord of WF. And Ramsay didn't marry fArya until they were already at WF. So, who was the host then? Ramsay who wasn't lord of WF yet, or Roose?

[YOVMO]

Just now, sweetsunray said:

The problem is that Roose isn't a guest at WF. He's the host there. When one guest kills another guest with the acknowledgement of the host, then the host is breaking guest right, even if he did not wield the knife.

Here I disagree though. While Roose is obviously the commander of the army, it is Ramsay Bolton who is Lord of Winterfell. If Randyl Tarly were asked to command the forces of the reach and rendezvous at High Garden, just being commander of the Armies would not make all of the assembled lords his guest. They would be the guest of Lord Tyrell. Of course it is a little more complicated in that Roose is Ramsay's father and also current warden of the north, but the roof of winterfell is Ramsay's roof and the bread and salt are his bread and salt.

[The Fattest Leech]

9 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

And being married before they've even flowered to half-brothers and cousins. I've been wondering about Black Walder and him not having married yet, but sleeping with plenty of wives of his possibel rivals, including his brothers. LS doesn't need to kill children or girls for that matter. Just hit hard on a few adult male Freys, with Walder Frey and Emmon Frey as #1 mark and shit will hit the fan amongst the Freys.

If I remember correctly (probably not ) I think Black Walder also sleeps with blood related family members. Weeelllll, I could go on about how this is part of the lesson George is incorporating about how incest is not good and brings about the downfall of dynasties, terrible personal matters, abomination against ALL of the gods, Targs did it for "blood purity" which George is against for real, etc, etc, etc... but that is another topic.

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

Here I disagree though. While Roose is obviously the commander of the army, it is Ramsay Bolton who is Lord of Winterfell. If Randyl Tarly were asked to command the forces of the reach and rendezvous at High Garden, just being commander of the Armies would not make all of the assembled lords his guest. They would be the guest of Lord Tyrell. Of course it is a little more complicated in that Roose is Ramsay's father and also current warden of the north, but the roof of winterfell is Ramsay's roof and the bread and salt are his bread and salt.

Ramsay isn't lord of WF until being married to a Stark. So who hosted at WF before Ramsay was married to Arya Stark, who isn't a Stark, but Jeyne Poole? Are you seeing the issue? Roose was the host before the marriage. And the marriage isn't even with a Stark, and Roose knows very well she's not Arya Stark.

[YOVMO]

Just now, sweetsunray said:

Ramsay isn't lord of WF until being married to a Stark. So who hosted at WF before Ramsay was married to Arya Stark, who isn't a Stark, but Jeyne Poole?

Obviously we know that the Jeyne Poole ruse is total BS. but at the moment when Little Walder is murdered and Hosteen Frey accosts Lord Manderly the current acknowledged Lord of Winterfell is Ramsay Bolton.

[The Fattest Leech]

1 minute ago, YOVMO said:

Obviously we know that the Jeyne Poole ruse is total BS. but at the moment when Little Walder is murdered and Hosteen Frey accosts Lord Manderly the current acknowledged Lord of Winterfell is Ramsay Bolton.

I think another layer to ambiguity of guest right in this situation is that Manderly brought the food, so whoever was hosting did not share his own food with the guests. Manderly did this so that when anything happened between him and his men and the Boltons and Freys, Manderly himself was not breaking any rules.

[sweetsunray]

1 minute ago, YOVMO said:

Obviously we know that the Jeyne Poole ruse is total BS. but at the moment when Little Walder is murdered and Hosteen Frey accosts Lord Manderly the current acknowledged Lord of Winterfell is Ramsay Bolton.

In every way Roose is the commander there and the head of House Bolton. The people there are his guests. Nobody there thinks they're Ramsay's guests. So, nope, I don't buy this technicality at all. It's quite different from Manderly ensuring a ceremony where the Freys that ended up in a pie were not guests anymore and killed outside in an ambush, and Manderly making sure he takes his own food along (as does Lady Dustin btw).

[YOVMO]

4 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

In every way Roose is the commander there and the head of House Bolton. The people there are his guests. Nobody there thinks they're Ramsay's guests. So, nope, I don't buy this technicality at all. It's quite different from Manderly ensuring a ceremony where the Freys that ended up in a pie were not guests anymore and killed outside in an ambush, and Manderly making sure he takes his own food along (as does Lady Dustin btw).

On this we happen to disagree. Roose Bolton is commander of the Northern Army against Stannis and the Lord of House Bolton. However, from the moment of his marriage Ramsay is the Lord of Winterfell.

I am still not even sure that Roose would eschew having a Manderly Frey fracas if it meant personal gain for him. He was fine screwing over Robb on guest right so long as he didn't have to get blood on his own hands and at that time he had bent the knee...Robb was his king. Manderly waiting until everyone rides out before having people he gave guest gifts to killed and turned into pies is a far worse crime than any of this regardless....but when Little Walder dies and the fracas ensues it is Ramsay who is the lord of Winterfell. Hell, he is sleeping in Ned Starks bed.

On this small point, friend, I feel we are deadlocked in disagreement.

10 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

I think another layer to ambiguity of guest right in this situation is that Manderly brought the food, so whoever was hosting did not share his own food with the guests. Manderly did this so that when anything happened between him and his men and the Boltons and Freys, Manderly himself was not breaking any rules.

Lady Dustin brought food too. You are right, it could add ambiguity but not that much I do not think. I am fairly sure that once Hosteen Frey opened Lord Manderly's throat that any laws of etiquette preventing men of white harbor from attacking Frey men was pretty much set aside. That said, I hold to the fact that this all happened in winterfell's great hall while Ramsay was Lord of Winterfell. Are there some sticky issues? Of course. But the point remains that the violence happens (and only happens) after Ramsay's tenure as LoW begins.