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Chess - the world in black and white


Rorshach

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And that's it. MVL correctly assessed that his best chance to survive this is trades.

However 44...Rf5?? was just a horrible howler (in a much worse position), as it simply dropped the rook after 45.Qxf5 and black resigned.

Anyway, Max lucked out against Lev in the play offs anyway.

Gratz to Radja, first candidates in a while. Last one he played was the one Carlsen refused to play (due to his dislike for the k.o. modus) with Sascha as his eleventh hour replacement. Must have been the one Gelfand won in the end.

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Ah. Should have remembered that.

I don't often check the live ratings, as the tournaments are more fun than a list, but I just looked anyway. Radja currently occupies the tenth spot. Good for him!

Otherwise, I was surprised to see Dominguez-Perez at 11th and Rapport at 15th - haven't caught their rise. Naka down to 25th was also unexpected.

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Leinier caught me by surprise, too.

Personally I don't rate him as a Super GM. But apparently he picked up quite a few rating points since he switched from Cuba to the USCF. To me he always was somewhat in the same bracket as Inarkiev, bouncing around the 2.700 mark, just short of being truely elite material. Let's see if he simply is a late bloomer, or whether this was/is a one off. I think it's the latter, and I don't think he will ever qualify for a candidates tournament.

Naka simply wasn't having a particularly good year. On a related note, I am also surprised Shankland is above 2.700 right now. When did that happen, and how? I just assume him and Dominguez just hassled a few open tournaments in the US, and just killed off lesser players. Basically, what Naka did before he got the invitations to the big tournaments.

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18 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Leinier caught me by surprise, too.

Personally I don't rate him as a Super GM. But apparently he picked up quite a few rating points since he switched from Cuba to the USCF. To me he always was somewhat in the same bracket as Inarkiev, bouncing around the 2.700 mark, just short of being truely elite material. Let's see if he simply is a late bloomer, or whether this was/is a one off. I think it's the latter, and I don't think he will ever qualify for a candidates tournament.

Naka simply wasn't having a particularly good year. On a related note, I am also surprised Shankland is above 2.700 right now. When did that happen, and how? I just assume him and Dominguez just hassled a few open tournaments in the US, and just killed off lesser players. Basically, what Naka did before he got the invitations to the big tournaments.

Think I remember Shankland passing 2700 around the time he became US Champion. Which is becoming quite a feat. He did get a couple of invitations after that, but he never managed to get a lift-off, so I think he'll backslide into relative obscurity. 

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On 9/25/2019 at 5:13 PM, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Ding is the favorite there, as Yu's record against Ding is as bad as Grischuk's against Svidler.

Does that mean we should be surprised if Yu wins in these circumstances?What are the odds I wonder?

 

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Let's put it this way.

Classical Score between Ding and Yu.

Ding Liren 6 wins, Yu Yangyi 0 Wins. 17 Draws.

So yeah, it would've been quite a surprise if Yu had managed to beat Ding for the first time ever in classical game here. Also Ding has been really great for the last 3 years or so, and has consistently improved his game.

Rapid/Blitz is a completely different story however.

Ding 1 win, Yu 4 wins, 5 draws.

Those are at least the game widely  available over at cg. There are probably way more games between them, which are just not in the public domain '(likesay them playing Blitz games during training camps etc.)

I still consider Ding to be the favorite, but the shorter time controls seem to be favour Yu.

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Ok, Ding is thru.

So the candidates is finally taking some form, in terms who's there.

Known qualifiers for the candidates thus far.

1. Caruana (loser of the WCC Match)

2. Ding (World Cup)

3. Radja (World Cup)

Open spots.

4. Winner of that Grand Swiss Tournament (total lottery)

5. Fide Grand Prix (Shak, Sascha, Nepo or MVL)

6. Fide Grand Prix (Shak, Sascha, Nepo or MVL)

7. Rating (Presumably Giri)

8. Wild Card.

 

Rating looks like Giri's best bet. Altho he is also playing that Swiss Tournament lottery.

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And FIDE Grand Swiss at the Isle of Man has started. Winner (or rather best player not named Carlsen or Caruana) gets a spot at the candidates. It's an 11th round Swiss Tournament. And with the spot in the candidates on the line there are quite a few big names.

Carlsen and Caruana, who are just there to play. Then we have the desperate bunch of players who want to qualify from there: Anand, who sat out the WC to focus on this event, and duly lost his first game against Najer. Aronian, who was held to a draw by Tari. So (draw against Moiseenko), Karjakin (draw against Abasov), Artemiev, Le, Dubov, Grischuk, Svidler, and many more.

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5 rounds in time for an update.

Last game of round 5 still going on is the Top/Leader's board.

Luke McShane is winning against Caruana. Assuming he can convert this it would put him in the sole lead. It's still just around the half-time mark, but still Luke fucking McShane, yes, the Goldman Sucks guy, qualifying for the candidates? Just when you thought this world could not get any crazier.

Standing as of now

McShane 3.5 (.4) [presumably 4.5 (5)]

Wang Hao 4(5)

Maghsoodloo 4(5)

Grischuk 4(5)

Fedoseev 4(5)

Shirov 4(5)

Anton 3.5 (5)

Karjakin 3.5 (5)

Lev 3.5 (5)

Kryvoruchko 3.5 (5)

Caruana 3.5 (4) [presumably 3.5 (5)]

Dreev 3.5 (5)

Gelfand 3.5 (5)

Carlsen 3.5 (5)

Adhiban 3.5 (5)

Abdusattarov 3.5 (5)

Vidit 2.5 (4) [might be 3.5 (5)]

Chepa 3(5)

Wojtaszek 3(5)

Carlsen's score is very flattering for him, as he has been close to losing in a few games.

 

Edit. Looks like McShane has made life more difficult for him by exchanging rooks. He is still an exchange up, and this should still be winning. However, the white pawn being blocked on b3 and thus the rook being pinned to the third rank without the chance to properly cut off the king from f3 makes this whole position kinda annoying to play. White has to get his king over to the black b4 pawn, without dropping a pawn in the process. If he managed to trade off his h-pawn against the b-pawn, that would be great for him. But like I said, achieving that looks tricky, and I think life would have been a bit easier without the rook exchange.

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Ok, looks like McShane found a plan. I am however not sure it works.

He moved his king to b2 to provide cover for the pawn on b3. Now his rook should be free to collect b4. However in the process h3 will drop, and the pawn g4 looks quite fast to me. Worst case scenario for him. he wins b4, drops h3, and in the resulting race, he'd need to give up his rook to stop the g-pawn, and thus Fabi escapes with a draw (he will have to give up his Bishop for the b-pawn anyway).

Tablebase give this as a draw after 75.Re4 Bxh3 76.Rxb4.

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And Fabi held.

Time to update the standings then.

56 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Standing as of now

McShane 4 (5)

Caruana 4 (5)

Wang Hao 4(5)

Maghsoodloo 4(5)

Grischuk 4(5)

Fedoseev 4(5)

Shirov 4(5)

Anton 3.5 (5)

Karjakin 3.5 (5)

Lev 3.5 (5)

Kryvoruchko 3.5 (5)

Dreev 3.5 (5)

Gelfand 3.5 (5)

Carlsen 3.5 (5)

Adhiban 3.5 (5)

Abdusattarov 3.5 (5)

Akopian 3.5 (5)

Vidit 3 (5)

Chepa 3(5)

Wojtaszek 3(5)

So 3 (5)

Anand (5)

Xiong 3(5)

 

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How hard is it to beat the best guys in the world? 

Kovalev (?) would have won that Carlsen game against anyone 2700, probably 2750 - but he chokes it away. McShane would have won his game against just about anyone period, but Fabi plays amazing defense in the end.

They just refuse to believe they're dead, don't they? Still, would be funny to see McShane in the candidates.

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6 hours ago, Rorshach said:

Kovalev (?) would have won that Carlsen game against anyone 2700, probably 2750 - but he chokes it away. McShane would have won his game against just about anyone period, but Fabi plays amazing defense in the end.

No, not necessarily. Carlsen himself remarked, when he started to play at the 2700++ tournaments that the big difference between those Super-GMs and the normal GMs is the Super-GMs ability to defend. The resourcefulness at this level surprised him.

Anyway, he really shouldn't have gotten into that much trouble in his games in the first place. While Anand losing in the first round Najer was unexpected and certainly fell into the category upset, it has to be said Najer at least was a top player in the 1990s, while Kovalev clearly hasn't shown any signs of the same quality. And it wasn't just the Kovalev game. He was lost at some point against Kuzubov in R1 (Carlsen subsequently even managed to win that game). Carlsen isn't playing particularly well in this tournament. Maybe he didn't take his opponents serious enough. That's no excuse however, as this isn't him playing Banter Blitz over at chess24, but tournament chess against fellow Grandmasters, even if they are not in the elite category.

As for the McShane - Caruana game. I think it was really more fatigue at play there (after 6-7 hours of play). McShane has been out of the competitive scene for some years while he was earning  money at Goldman. So I assume he just thought he'd make life easier by going into that Rook vs. Bishop ending, and did not properly analyze and assess the arising position. My gut feeling was also that the rook exchange should win somehow. But the longer I looked at the position the less I liked it, in terms of being confident that it was winning. The pawns being fixed on light squares (the b3 in particular) and binding down the rook to defensive duties, with no obvious plan on how to get the bloody King active and involved.

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Magnus has struggled again this tournament, that is true. He seems to fluctate a bit, and wasn't all that in St. Louis either. Will see if he gets back in form during the tournament. 

I think time may have played a part in the McShane game - McShane was low on time, and it is concievable he went for the simplification because he a) thought it was winning anyway and b) he was low on time and needed to simplify. 

 

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And Fabi on his way to take the lead with 5(6) assuming he converts. Wang's position against McShane also looks promising. The extra pawn + that monster on g2 means this is +-. It's a longer path to victory, but it's within the realm of the possible.

Carlsen, Aronian, Aleeksenko, Vitiugov, Grischuk, Maghsoodloo in the pack with 4.5 Anton looks promising might also join them with 4.5(6), also possibly Gelfand.

Anand and some others on 4(6)

Did I mention this is a freaking lottery of a qualification path.

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