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Chess - the world in black and white


Rorshach

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Caruana got the win he needed against MVL and is now just half a point off the lead, with a potentially decisive game against Nepo coming up at the end of the week.

On balance I'd quite like to see another Carlsen-Caruana match, so I rather hope he manages to win the tournament from here.  It still doesn't feel like any of the Candidates will be able to beat Carlsen, but Caruana must have as good a chance as anyone.  (As long as it doesn't come down to rapid tiebreaks again.)

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Not sure who I'd want to see against Carlsen, but Caruana is a very good alternative. 

An in-form Ding would be exciting as well. Nepo ... the games would probably be lively, but I don't think he's a threat just yet. 

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Ding is out of contention. He was after the first half. So you can scratch him from your wish list.

Nepo is if I am not mistaken the only player who actually has a + score against Carlsen. I mean right now this is basically a three horse race between Nepo, MVL and Caruana. Nepo is in the lead, and he has quite a few white games left, especially those against MVL and Caruana are extremely valuable. So he's the favorite right now.

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Yeah, Ding was more a wish than an actual belief. As for Nepo .. what he has going for him is he's in front. And he can be brilliant. And he has a plus score against Carlsen (thought that's mostly from early games, IIRC?).

Against him is that while he can be brilliant, he's also erratic. So does he last the entire tournament without losing one or two unneccesary games? 

Were I a betting man, I'd go Caruana at this point.

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Seems we have to mention Giri as a possibility, him winning today. Same score as Caruana and MVL. 

 

I'm sorta surprised, though not too much. I did mention him winning a bit more online..

 

ETA: Wrote this before Ding - MVL was done, but looked very drawish position.

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I thought general consensus among pros was, that Nepo has started to take chess more serious these days. So I think he is favorite to win it this time. Caruana and Giri (arguably most improved player in 2020) are trailing him right now. But I stick with Nepo for the time being.

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Agree with most of the above: I'd have liked to see Ding play Carlsen, and he was probably the person I thought most likely to win back at the start of the tournament, but I think his first half performance is enough to rule him out of contention (for this cycle, at least).

2 hours ago, Rorshach said:

ETA: Wrote this before Ding - MVL was done, but looked very drawish position.

Slightly surprised by this.  I wasn't really following the games properly today, but glancing at the Ding-MVL game with an engine at one point I thought MVL's position looked pretty hopeless.

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2 minutes ago, Plessiez said:

Agree with most of the above: I'd have liked to see Ding play Carlsen, and he was probably the person I thought most likely to win back at the start of the tournament, but I think his first half performance is enough to rule him out of contention (for this cycle, at least).

Slightly surprised by this.  I wasn't really following the games properly today, but glancing at the Ding-MVL game with an engine at one point I thought MVL's position looked pretty hopeless.

Should probably clarify there that it certainly looked hopeless for MVL at some point. Was drawish when I wrote it. 

Can only assume Ding's still not in his best form.

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Nepo did his homework today by beating Alekseenko.

MVL is betterish against Giri thanks to this advanced passer on d6, but with the opposite colored bishops this is heading towards a draw as soon as the rooks exit the stage. I think this will end in a draw.

Caruana - Ding looks unclear to me. I'd like to believe that Caruana's position looks a bit harmonic/better coordinated. On the other hand Ding has an extra pawn (which is doubled and kinda worthless) and the remote passer on the a-file. Caruana definately has compensation for his pawn. But I really don't feel like I can predict the outcome of this one.

Wang - Grischuk: Another unbalanced position. Wang his given up his Queen for two minor pieces and two, pardon the e7 just exited the stage, so one pawn. So Sascha should be better here material wise. But it's a total mess I'll give unclear again.

And yeah, MVL and Giri agreed to draw.

Ding has managed to untangle. Looks a bit more drawish now, and if anybody is better there, it's gotta be Ding.

The Wang - Grischuk game remains an ungodly mess.

 

Ok, things settled there rather quick. Caruana Ding did draw.

And after Sascha felt compelled to sac an exchange to eliminate Wang Hao's passer, the latter simply set up a fortress. Thus another draw.

 

Good day at the office for Nepo who has taken another step towards winning the candidates.

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Side-effect of this round. I think this has round has more or less eliminated Giri from challenging Carlsen.

Nepo has is a full point ahead of him and Caruana and MVL. The difference is the tie breaker. Nepo has beaten Giri 1.5-0.5 in their direct encounters. And head-to-head score is the tie breaker. So Anish effectively has to score 1.5 more points from his remaining games than Nepo. That's a tall order.

Next round is on Friday, that might very well be the decissive round of the tournament.

Nepo-Caruana. Caruana is almost in a must-win situation with the black pieces. Like I said those white games against Caruana and MVL are worth quite a bit for Nepo at this point.

 

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Nepo went for the four knights and pretty much forced his way into a draw.

Prudent decission and giant leap for Nepo towards Carlsen.

MVL looks like he is in big trouble against Grischuk's anti-Sicilian. Sooner or later Sascha will murder him on that h-file.  This is heading towards 1-0.

Giri - Ding is the other game that looks interesting. Anish has to be somewhat better there, I think. But I'd rather play Ding's position than MVL's.

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I wrote this before Ding played 22...b6 the position must have been worse than I thought at a brief glance, when Ding felt compelled to play such a move. That was one of the last move I'd have wanted to play in that position. It's just too weakening for the king's position. But Kudos to Giri for pulling out that very neat piece sacrifice with 23.Ne4!!

When I commented on the Grischuk - MVL game. He had just played 20..Rfd8. There you could see how this was gonna end. Bobby Fischer already knew how to slay those dragon positions. That was really just a technical excercise for Grischuk. The pattern with just saccing something on the h-file is really pretty mechanical. So that was way clearer and more obvious to predict than Ding's position.

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Well, comment was tounge in cheek. And I have no idea how bad Ding's position was before his 22nd move - haven't looked at any computer there. 

Mostly a fun comment to see in hindsight, that when I read the comment, Ding had resigned :)

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I don't know why Max insisted on dragging this one out. this was resignable after the time control.

Sascha was never gonna slip up in that basic same colour bishop ending. I am fairly confident that I would've converted that against him.

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