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Would Shireen ever be accepted as Queen of the 7 Kingdoms? (Winds spoilers)


Oakhearts head

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This question relates directly to the following exchange between Stannis Baratheon and Ser Justin Massey in Theon's sample chapter from the Winds of Winter.

Quote

Justin: Your Grace, if you are dead —

Stannis: — you will avenge my death, and seat my daughter on the Iron Throne. Or die in the attempt.
Justin: On my honor as a knight, you have my word.

Considering how misogynistic a society Westeros is, I'm highly skeptical that even during times of peace, Shireen Baratheon being accepted by both the nobility and the smallfolk is all that likely. This is a society that for the most part view woman as incapable and see people with disfigurements or disabilities as "cursed" and having been given these afflictions by the gods themselves. The last woman who could have sat the Iron Throne was Rhaenyra Targaryen, and we all know how that turned out. In spite of having a large amount of support, there were still a lot of people who opposed her.

Shireen has a rather obvious disfigurement, has very little political support, and isn't even very well known to the majority in the realm. She also doesn't have dragons. Daenerys seems to be the only woman to have a legitimate shot at sitting the Iron Throne, while everyone else is fighting a major uphill battle.

Am I wrong? Would Shireen's Greyscale and gender be the roadblock I believe it would be?

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If Stannis is dead, no. The only chance for her would be if Stannis won, stabilized things, and worked out a proper transition. If he dies in battle and Shireen is left at the Wall with one castle, 50-100 guards and no political support, there's no way she'd ever take the throne (unless Massey turns out to be some amazing, prodigious general and politician).

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1 hour ago, Oakhearts head said:

This question relates directly to the following exchange between Stannis Baratheon and Ser Justin Massey in Theon's sample chapter from the Winds of Winter.

Considering how misogynistic a society Westeros is, I'm highly skeptical that even during times of peace, Shireen Baratheon being accepted by both the nobility and the smallfolk is all that likely. This is a society that for the most part view woman as incapable and see people with disfigurements or disabilities as "cursed" and having been given these afflictions by the gods themselves. The last woman who could have sat the Iron Throne was Rhaenyra Targaryen, and we all know how that turned out. In spite of having a large amount of support, there were still a lot of people who opposed her.

Shireen has a rather obvious disfigurement, has very little political support, and isn't even very well known to the majority in the realm. She also doesn't have dragons. Daenerys seems to be the only woman to have a legitimate shot at sitting the Iron Throne, while everyone else is fighting a major uphill battle.

Am I wrong? Would Shireen's Greyscale and gender be the roadblock I believe it would be?

As a courtesy to folks who don't want to read bits of Winds before the book is published, we are supposed to include text from, and direct direct discussion of, Winds in spoiler tags. Labeling the topic title is not considered sufficient. 

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Only if Stannis' men actually continued to fight in her name (questionable at best) and eventually won the war. I even doubt that a disfigured girl like her would ever be offered the throne if all the other pretenders and their heirs suddenly died. She is female and a sickly and ugly child. Nobody wants such a queen. People would look for (and fined) a much better (looking) alternative.

If Stannis actually loses a battle (and a lot of men) and is killed she is not going to survive him for long. In fact, if Stannis was defeated and killed by the Boltons the entire 'good guys' plot in the North would most likely be over because nobody would continue to oppose the Boltons in such a scenario.

Now, if Selyse and Shireen got the chance to leave for Braavos with Tycho Nestoris before any Bolton sympathizers take them captive they could, perhaps, eventually return with an army. 20,000 sellswords and a lot of money could make a difference, especially in those troubled times.

But it would be very difficult in any case. Probably Selyse will take her daughter and leave Castle Black with Axell, Massey, and Nestoris in any case. Somebody actually representing Stannis has to collect his money and his sellswords and Selyse and Shireen would be way better of in Braavos then they are right now at the Wall. Especially while they don't know for sure that Stannis is not dead.

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If Stannis won the throne and had no more children, but managed to marry Shireen to someone powerful and well-respected who would proceed to father healthy children on her, she'd probably be accepted. People would understand her husband to be the true power and acknowledge that she is merely the Queen in name.

If Stannis is to fall in battle, the best thing for Shireen would be to probably get out of Westeros. She has too little support for a realistic shot at being Queen (and I can't even imagine she particularly wants the throne). She'd be better off fleeing or choosing to side with one of the other potential monarchs (Aegon or Daenerys, for example).

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I think the main function of that interchange is to tell us several things:

(1) Stannis is preparing for the chance that he may actually die in the battle.

(2) He is also hinting at the fact that rumours of his death MAY spread even if he is still alive - and the only way that such rumours could spread was if he was himself party to them: in other words, he is going to fake his own death, and "disappear" after doing so until the right time comes to reveal his survival, presumably as a matter of subterfuge against the Boltons. And he is telling Massey all that Massey needs to know, namely that Massey must continue to be loyal to Stannis's cause even if he believes Stannis to be dead.

(3) And that he does not yet outright trust Massey with the idea that he is actively planning to fake his death. Not that he believes Massey will betray him out of hand, otherwise he would not be trusted with this task - Stannis therefore must believe that Massey is genuinely loyal if he thinks there is even the faintest chance that the man will actually come back with borrowed money and sellswords even if news of Stannis's death is leaked: but in case he is captured and tortured by Bolton agents in the North (or indeed, Lannister agents while in Braavos), he would probably talk under torture, and therefore it is better if Massey does not know the full story.

Either that or he thinks Massey is going to desert and blab the news all over Braavos once he hears it, and be the "confirmation" of Stannis's death, and was never planning to rely on either Iron Bank money or sellswords in the first place.

(4) And also, given that Shireen is Stannis's only heir... this exchange points to the fact that, unlike a certain event in the TV series, Stannis not only really does care about Shireen, but would put his own life on the line for her, rather than the other way around. (Which also fits in with one of his comments in a previous chapter: "There will be no more burnings. Pray harder". Looks like he is no longer under any illusion, if he ever was, that Melisandre's power comes from anywhere but Melisandre rather than from her god.)

(5) This also goes along with his conversation with Theon, who warns him that although Ramsay commands no proper army, it is he, not the Manderlys and Freys, that is to be feared. Theon warns Stannis "You do not know him". Stannis's reply is "No more than he knows me". I read this as, not just a matter of knowing the enemy psychologically, but also literally - Ramsay has used disguise and infiltration before, and his true identity was not known until too late. It works especially well because, at that time, Theon did not know Ramsay, i.e. apart from not know what he was capable of, he also did not know him by sight, he did not know what Ramsay looked like - and possibly neither did the people who initially held him captive at Winterfell. (Ned Stark would probably not have been fooled.) Stannis does not, quite literally, know Ramsay - but Ramsay also does not know Stannis: my belief is that Stannis is setting up an imposture, and he intends an impostor to be killed in his place by Ramsay, which will thus reveal Ramsay to him for whatever purposes he has.

And my best guess for that is... Stannis knows he cannot take Winterfell by storm or siege, at least he cannot take it intact by storm (and to smash it up in the process would be ruinous since it would destroy the castle's value as a shelter) and he has not the supplies to outlast the Boltons in a siege: therefore he must take it by treachery, and quickly, by having friends inside to open the gates for him. And how can he best smuggle friends inside? I suspect, in Karstark colours - by having them successfully "help" Ramsay to escape after Ramsay believes he has completed a mission of treachery to assassinate Stannis (and, in fact, assassinating the fake, while the real one goes into hiding until it's time for him to emerge again when his friends open the gates from the inside.)

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Just now, JLE said:

I think the main function of that interchange is to tell us several things:

(1) Stannis is preparing for the chance that he may actually die in the battle.

(2) He is also hinting at the fact that rumours of his death MAY spread even if he is still alive - and the only way that such rumours could spread was if he was himself party to them: in other words, he is going to fake his own death, and "disappear" after doing so until the right time comes to reveal his survival, presumably as a matter of subterfuge against the Boltons. And he is telling Massey all that Massey needs to know, namely that Massey must continue to be loyal to Stannis's cause even if he believes Stannis to be dead.

(3) And that he does not yet outright trust Massey with the idea that he is actively planning to fake his death. Not that he believes Massey will betray him out of hand, otherwise he would not be trusted with this task - Stannis therefore must believe that Massey is genuinely loyal if he thinks there is even the faintest chance that the man will actually come back with borrowed money and sellswords even if news of Stannis's death is leaked: but in case he is captured and tortured by Bolton agents in the North (or indeed, Lannister agents while in Braavos), he would probably talk under torture, and therefore it is better if Massey does not know the full story.

Either that or he thinks Massey is going to desert and blab the news all over Braavos once he hears it, and be the "confirmation" of Stannis's death, and was never planning to rely on either Iron Bank money or sellswords in the first place.

(4) And also, given that Shireen is Stannis's only heir... this exchange points to the fact that, unlike a certain event in the TV series, Stannis not only really does care about Shireen, but would put his own life on the line for her, rather than the other way around. (Which also fits in with one of his comments in a previous chapter: "There will be no more burnings. Pray harder". Looks like he is no longer under any illusion, if he ever was, that Melisandre's power comes from anywhere but Melisandre rather than from her god.)

(5) This also goes along with his conversation with Theon, who warns him that although Ramsay commands no proper army, it is he, not the Manderlys and Freys, that is to be feared. Theon warns Stannis "You do not know him". Stannis's reply is "No more than he knows me". I read this as, not just a matter of knowing the enemy psychologically, but also literally - Ramsay has used disguise and infiltration before, and his true identity was not known until too late. It works especially well because, at that time, Theon did not know Ramsay, i.e. apart from not know what he was capable of, he also did not know him by sight, he did not know what Ramsay looked like - and possibly neither did the people who initially held him captive at Winterfell. (Ned Stark would probably not have been fooled.) Stannis does not, quite literally, know Ramsay - but Ramsay also does not know Stannis: my belief is that Stannis is setting up an imposture, and he intends an impostor to be killed in his place by Ramsay, which will thus reveal Ramsay to him for whatever purposes he has.

And my best guess for that is... Stannis knows he cannot take Winterfell by storm or siege, at least he cannot take it intact by storm (and to smash it up in the process would be ruinous since it would destroy the castle's value as a shelter) and he has not the supplies to outlast the Boltons in a siege: therefore he must take it by treachery, and quickly, by having friends inside to open the gates for him. And how can he best smuggle friends inside? I suspect, in Karstark colours - by having them successfully "help" Ramsay to escape after Ramsay believes he has completed a mission of treachery to assassinate Stannis (and, in fact, assassinating the fake, while the real one goes into hiding until it's time for him to emerge again when his friends open the gates from the inside.)

Yeah but Stannis certainly inst as crazy or unpredictable as Ramsay is. But yeah I wonder if the books would go the route the show went and have ruse legitimize him. But yeah I felt like that was just him saying the line and not being mean to be symbolic but you brought up some good points.

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The Great Council of 101 set the precedent that the Iron Throne cannot pass to a woman, nor through her line. :(

The closest this rule came to being broken was following the Dance of the Dragons, when Rhaenyra's son succeeded the defeated Aegon II, who died without issue.

Beyond that, the Iron Throne skips women in the line of succession. Stannis' heir would therefore be Renly (oops).

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12 hours ago, Yukle said:

The Great Council of 101 set the precedent that the Iron Throne cannot pass to a woman, nor through her line. :(

The closest this rule came to being broken was following the Dance of the Dragons, when Rhaenyra's son succeeded the defeated Aegon II, who died without issue.

Beyond that, the Iron Throne skips women in the line of succession. Stannis' heir would therefore be Renly (oops).

As Renly is dead, Renly isn't anyone's heir.

Being female is no impediment for inheriting the throne if the male line is extinct. Daenerys considers herself the rightful heir to the Iron Throne. Barristan Selmy and Doran Martell were/are willing to acknowledge her claims. 

People who no longer acknowledge the Targaryen claims might recognize Shireen's claims - at least if they believe that Tommen and Myrcella aren't Baratheons. Or if anything happens to Tommen and Myrcella.

What Shireen is lacking is the same thing Stannis is lacking: a strong army, and solid backing among the noble houses of Westeros. But even if she never wins the Iron Throne, she is still Stannis' heir.

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25 minutes ago, DigUpHerBones said:

since we are going with Winds Spoilers, the Stormlands have already knelt to Aegon without a single arrow loosed. and his banner is flying above Storms End.

so no, she has no chance whatsoever.

This is not confirmed yet, we haven't seen storm's end. Hallfmaester could have lied to Arianne.

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8 hours ago, Tini said:

As Renly is dead, Renly isn't anyone's heir.

Being female is no impediment for inheriting the throne if the male line is extinct. Daenerys considers herself the rightful heir to the Iron Throne. Barristan Selmy and Doran Martell were/are willing to acknowledge her claims. 

People who no longer acknowledge the Targaryen claims might recognize Shireen's claims - at least if they believe that Tommen and Myrcella aren't Baratheons. Or if anything happens to Tommen and Myrcella.

What Shireen is lacking is the same thing Stannis is lacking: a strong army, and solid backing among the noble houses of Westeros. But even if she never wins the Iron Throne, she is still Stannis' heir.

Yes, agreed - except I do think that being female matters to Westeros. Renly pointed out that it was Robert's army, not his blood, that solidified his claim.

However, the result of the Dance of the Dragons would suggest that most of Westeros will not tolerate a woman to rule. Rhaenyra's rule shouldn't have been contested at all: explicit instructions decreed that she was the heir. Yet half of the realm rose against her. It was nothing to do with law or even army (since, at the start of the war, she had more dragons).

Shireen, as you point out, has none of the requirements to rule. Her father's claim isn't recognised, she hasn't an army and she's female.

The Great Councils have also passed over young children before (even boys) for fear of their youth or mental incapacity.

Should Dany take the Iron Throne it'll be because she conquered it, not because the lords simply allow her to.

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There's another thing that needs to be considered:

As far as great fantasy literature tropes go, you don'televate an incurable, progressive, often fatal disease to the status of Major Plot Point in a story if you don't intend to have somebody cured of it. Shireen is a possibility: and if she were The Kid Who Beat Greyscale, her chances of having people follow her would be greatly increased...

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22 hours ago, Yukle said:

The Great Council of 101 set the precedent that the Iron Throne cannot pass to a woman, nor through her line. :(

The closest this rule came to being broken was following the Dance of the Dragons, when Rhaenyra's son succeeded the defeated Aegon II, who died without issue.

Beyond that, the Iron Throne skips women in the line of succession. Stannis' heir would therefore be Renly (oops).

The Great Council of 101 AC is effectively done and buried, especially in its most rigid reading. Who should succeed to the throne if the male royal line died out? Should the Iron Throne remain vacant? Most definitely not. So if ever the need arose that a king had to name his daughter his heir because there were no sons, uncles, nephews or cousins around then the daughter would have been the heir, end of story.

And Robert's success indeed sets a precedent for the succession of a male through the female line.

And we already have Stannis considering Shireen his heir presumptive, only offering Renly to name him his heir if he gives up his own claim. This suggests that female inheritance, while being unpopular, is not exactly completely dead yet, especially if a king has no sons nor any close male kin he wants to name heir instead of his daughter. Myrcella is also Tommen's immediate heir, there is simply no one else we know of.

This doesn't make it likely Shireen ever gets a chance to claim the Iron Throne. She is ill-prepared for the role of Queen Regnant, and her father isn't exactly in a good position right now.

Dany certainly has to conquer Westeros but her ancestry and dragons will cause many lords to declare for in spite of her gender. She has the right name and most likely an army large enough to make your life very uncomfortable if she happens to land on your doorstep.

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11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Great Council of 101 AC is effectively done and buried, especially in its most rigid reading. Who should succeed to the throne if the male royal line died out? Should the Iron Throne remain vacant? Most definitely not. So if ever the need arose that a king had to name his daughter his heir because there were no sons, uncles, nephews or cousins around then the daughter would have been the heir, end of story.

And Robert's success indeed sets a precedent for the succession of a male through the female line..

True, but as I mention in a later post, Renly argued it was Robert's army not his blood that saw him win. Rhaenyra was meant to rule but half the realm protested her rule, suggesting that it's not so much the Council as it is prejudice against women ruling that would an excuse to keep Shireen off the throne.

In Dany's case, her Targaryen name would account for little. In fact, it would probably count against her. On the other hand, her dragons would be her main source of power and perhaps lords will cede to her rule because of them. ;) 

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