Jump to content

Jon is the trueborn son of Ned and Ashara


The Twinslayer

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, The Twinslayer said:

Is a secret wedding between Ned and Ashara any more unlikely than the secret marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna that is so popular on the R+L=J threads?

 

I must have missed the part where we are in Rhaegar's head for several chapters.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

Taking these in turn:

1.  Timeline

This works for several reasons.  First, Jon is probably older than Robb.  Jon is a little ahead of Robb when the are small children and Maester Luwin excuses this by saying that bastards grow up quicker than trueborn children.  Second, what is to say that Jon was not conceived a couple of days before Ned's wedding to Catelyn?  Ned did not know he was going to marry Catelyn until after he went to Riverrun, after the Battle of the Bells.  What is to say that he did not meet his (secret) wife Ashara between Stony Sept and Riverrun and conceive Jon during that encounter?  Third, what is the reason for thinking that Jon is younger than Robb anyway?  Fourth, if Jon is older, and trueborn, but it is important for the rebel alliance that Robb be Ned's heir, wouldn't Ned have an incentive to suggest that Robb was actually older? 

Also, I have seen among very intelligent and well coordinated children an 18 month old child who has only 3-4 words and has just learned to walk and a 9 month old child who has more than a dozen words and is walking proficiently.  Whether Jon or Robb is older would not necessarily be apparent to any observer if you are talking about a period of months (rather than years). 

2.  Lying about 2 wives versus lying about his sister's bastard

I don't see any difference.  Ned says there was no honor in the conquest, and we know that Robert did not proclaim that he sought the kingship until after the Battle of the Bells, when Ned married Catelyn.  That is a pretty strong hint that his "wedding" to Catelyn -- and the alliance it secured -- was dishonorable. 

3.  Ashara's motive to "make a loud and public issue" of her marriage to Ned

Ashara would have a lot of incentive to keep it secret if one or both of these things happened: (1) she was "dishonored" by Ned before their wedding, and then (2) he was a leader of a rebellion that her family (at least nominally) opposed. 

Stepping back from the Rebellion, if he "married" her in secret after "dishonoring" her at Harrenhal, they might have agreed to keep it secret to avoid overshadowing the Brandon-Cat marriage or the Lyanna-Robert marriage.

Ashara might also not want to undermine Ned, her husband, while he was rebelling against the crown.  In that instance, her loyalty to her husband could conflict with her loyalty to her house, and she might decide to just stay silent.

4.  Dishonor does not mean sex?

Okay.  But it might.  And we know from Meera/Jojen that Ned fancied  her.

5.  Lemore's eye color

Don't you find it strange that we are told everyone's eye color except Lemore's? 

1. The reason Jon has to be younger than Robb is that Ned has to pass him off as a YOUNGER brother to Robb, conceived well after Robb's conception, after the wedding and his brief time with Catelyn. Otherwise the story about cheating on his wife doesn't hold. Jon being a little ahead of Robb in anything has nothing to do with when they were born. Nor does how many words a child does or doesn't speak at any given age. There are certain physical milestones that prohibit passing a child off as months older or younger than it actually is while it is an infant. You wouldn't know now that my nine year old daughter and her cousin are six months apart, but when they were babies it was very easy to tell.

Where is the information that tells us when Ned knew/decided/agreed to marrying Catelyn? Not in the series itself. Is it in TWOIAF? 

Ashara is from Dorne. When she was sent away from court she returned home. She could have easily moved around in Dorne because the fighting was all to the north, but there's very little chance she could have secretly traveled to the Riverlands to meet with Ned or anybody else.

It's only important to the alliance until Robert is on the throne. Afterward Ned would have been free to admit that his marriage was false. If he truly loved Ashara and was married to her there is no way he would let his son with her take bastard status when he was the only trueborn Stark child at Winterfell. 

2. If you don't see the difference between a lie for political expedience and a lie to save the life of an innocent child, I don't think my explaining it will help. Moving on...

Ned says there was no honor in the conquest. He says nothing about any wedding. Nor does he reference the timing of Robert's declaring for the throne. Those are some pretty large leaps.

3. If being the operative word. We do not know who dishonored her. I can agree on many of the points you make here except that when it came to her son's rights no mother would stay silent. Maybe she'd wait until after the war was over and Robert's throne secure, but no way any woman in a feudal society would allow her legitimate child to be raised as a bastard. Ashara was not just some girl. She was a member of a house that claims to be the oldest in Westeros, that has a magic sword, that produced badass nights who have their own special title, that were once kings in their own right, and whose words are such a huge spoiler that they haven't been included in the text. Not only would staying silent have doomed her son to exactly the kind of life Jon had, but it also meant forsaking her own rightful place as the Lady of Winterfell, and giving up her husband. Unless Ashara was the biggest doormat in all of Westeros, that seems illogical.

4. No, it didn't. Modern readers seem to automatically assume it means sex, but it doesn't. This is where a good understanding of history is essential. There were times and places where certain behaviors were winked at, such as during holiday kissing games, but for the most part a girl's reputation could be lost very easily. Even being alone with a man who wasn't a relative could be grounds for doubting a maiden's virtue. If Ashara was caught kissing someone, she'd be considered loose. If some jerk put his hand down her bodice and someone walked in just then, she'd be damaged goods even if she was a mere victim. It's unfair, and sexist, and lousy, but it's historically accurate.

And remember we have no first-hand information on this. Just as we have no first-hand information about whether or not she had a child, and we have no first-hand information about the supposed suicide. But we do at least have rumors and hints about some things. There are zero hints about a Ned and Ashara marriage, and very few about a possible romance. Ned was too shy to ask the girl to dance, so how exactly would he make a move that would end up with the two of them married? 

We also know from Meera and Jojen that Ashara danced with a lot of guys. That Robert (a known hound dog) was present. And that Howland Reed was apparently really, really interested in who Ashara Dayne was dancing with...enough so that he remembered every partner she had, and told his children about it years later.

5. Actually out of a cast of over 1,000 characters we know the eye colors of relatively few. So no, I don't find that odd. Also Ashara should be in her 30s, and Lemore is over 40.  At Harrenhal, as an unattached female, she would have been in her teens. The only noble ladies who don't marry young in Westeros are those who take holy vows or are not pretty enough to tempt suitors.

But all the rest aside, the Stark direwolf sigil is gray. Jon's direwolf is white. If he's the only trueborn Stark, shouldn't he have a grey direwolf? Granted Shaggydog's fur is black, but that could be seen as a variation or mutation...perhaps more Stark-ness, hearkening back to the old Kings of Winter who were hard men, and undoubtedly had what Ned called the wolf blood. Ghost on the other hand has no pigmentation at all. He's the outsider, as Jon is the outsider. Jon who dreams that he is unwelcome in the crypts because he is not a Stark.

Really if you're going to have Jon not be Rhaegar's son, at least give him something interesting like the right to bear Dawn and be the Sword of the Morning. No trueborn Stark would ever have that right, even with a Dayne mother. If he's not going to have dragonblood, he needs something as good if not better. And there's a better (though still VERY shaky) case to be made for Lyanna + Arthur than there is for anyone + Ashara being Jon's parents.

Sorry to bring it up but...the one thing GRRM asked the producers before he gave them the TV rights to his series was who Jon's mother was, and they got that right. There's very little chance that they changed that just for fun (unrelated rant--I hope they had fun with some of the things they did change because that would be the only justification). The clues are there. It makes sense. It doesn't require hammering the text out of shape to make it work. It's 95% likely to turn out to be the case.

It's fun to discuss other possibilities but at some point we'll all have to abandon some great ideas and theories to accept GRRM's actual story. This includes me and my theories. The story is going to go the way GRRM writes it, and we can't change that, nor should we.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/15/2016 at 8:05 PM, The Twinslayer said:

What do you think?

I think it is good to read your view of this, my friend! I tried to give a short handed version of what I think it would take to make this theory possible in the Heresy threads, and didn't do a very good job of it. As someone who has long supported this idea, I like that you're trying to set out your ideas for everyone to evaluate. In that spirit, let me give you my reaction to what you've written as well.

On 12/15/2016 at 8:05 PM, The Twinslayer said:

It is time to dust off an old theory to take into account more recent information contained in ADWD.  Here it is.

Jon's parents are Ned and Ashara, they were married before Ned married Cat, so Jon is legitimate. 

The evidence for Ned being the father is that Ned says so:  "Ned brought his bastard home with him, and called him 'son' for all the north to see."  It also helps that Ned looks like a Stark, based on the description in the books and that Craster points it out. 

The evidence for Ashara being the mother is that Catelyn and Cersei have both heard that Ashara is the mother and Barristan (that is from ADWD) says that Ashara "turned to Stark" at Harrenhall.  Plus, when Catelyn asks about Ashara, Ned shuts her down, asks where she heard Ashara's name, and ensures that "Ashara Dayne's name was never heard in Winterfell again."

That Ashara is one of two people who are named as a possible mother to Jon is one of the strongest points for the theory. No doubt about that. The seeming contradiction of Wylla claiming to be his mother and her role in the Dayne household has always seemed a key question to me. I see that you deal with that in the last paragraph of your essay, so let me respond there concerning your solution.

On 12/15/2016 at 8:05 PM, The Twinslayer said:

What is the theory that Ned and Ashara were married?  Here it is.  We only see Ned ever tell one lie where we know he is lying and we know the exact nature of the lie.  It happens right before he is killed, and he lies about committing treason:  "I plotted to depose and murder his son and seize the throne for myself.  Let the High Septon and Baelor the Beloved and the Seven bear witness to the truth of what I say:  Joffrey Baratheon is the one true heir to the Iron Throne." 

The point is that Ned swore that this lie was true to the Seven -- not the Old Gods.  So he would not swear to a lie before the Old Gods, but he managed to do it to the Seven. 

We only know of one other oath he took to the Seven:  his marriage vows to Catelyn.  "And one day fifteen years ago, this second father had become a brother as well, as he and Ned stood together in the sept at Riverrun to wed to sisters, the daughters of Lord Hoster Tully." 

You would think that the Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North would wed in the godswood, before the heart tree.  Why did Ned not do that?  The answer is that he had already married before the Old Gods, when he married Ashara.

Actually we also see Ned lie to Robert about his children as Robert as he lays dying from the boar attack. Ned does it to spare his friend and king the news of Cersei's betrayal but his lie is still there. But we also now he is haunted with the lies he tells. And we know he tells Arya that there are lies that are "not without honor." Ned lies when he sees it "honorable" to do so. I'd point to the times he does so as example of how he protects children and innocents and can only do so with lies. Certainly his lie on the Sept of Baelor's steps is an example of this. But then how is it "honorable" to lie to Lord Hoster Tully and to Catelyn and say he will marry her when he legally can't do so? No, I think it highly unlikely he would do so.

This is a lie of expediency, it makes it easier for the rebels to win, but has no honor in its trickery. I don't think it fits with what Ned would do.

Nor do I think Ned would use the excuse that the marriage was in a Sept and not in a Godswood to tell himself he is doing no harm or some how this wasn't a violation of the most intimate terms with Catelyn. Ned may well believe one can tell no lie before the heart tree of a godswood, but that doesn't mean he is willing to lie in a Sept.

I'd also point out that if it is important to Ned or the custom of the North to have a ceremony before the heart tree, then that could be done as well. That Catelyn remembers and recalls the wedding in the Sept may reflect what ceremony she thinks as important, not that one wasn't done in a godswood as well. We just don't know that.

On 12/15/2016 at 8:05 PM, The Twinslayer said:

Barristan thinks she turned to Stark and was dishonored at Harrenhal.  So Ned and Ashara had sex.  Add to this the fact that, when Robb beds and then immediately weds Jeyne, we are told (by Tywin) that Robb is his "father's son."  Is this a clue that Ned bedded Ashara at Harrenhal and then immediately afterwards, he wed her -- just like Robb?

Possible, but no positive evidence that he did so. In fact, if Ned refused to marry Catelyn, then I'd see it as a possible clue that he had other commitments, but that's not the case.

On 12/15/2016 at 8:05 PM, The Twinslayer said:

Now, why would Ned marry Cat if he was already married to Ashara, knowing that polygamy is illegal in the Seven Kingdoms?  ASOS provides the answer:  after the Battle of the Bells, the rebels needed to secure the Tully alliance, and Hoster insisted on marrying his daughters to Ned and Jon Arryn.  Ned, freshly (but secretly) married to Ashara, had to agree to marry Catelyn (publicly) to secure the alliance.  Is this one of the reasons why Ned tells Robert:  "There was no honor in that conquest."  Because the Tully alliance was secured by a public marriage (to Catelyn) that repudiated the secret, prior marriage to Ashara?

I think you are taking the quote about "no honor in that conquest" out of context, my friend. It is directly aimed at the Lannister sack of King's Landing. Not at the rebellion against Aerys. And, once again, let me say this is not, imo, the kind of lie Ned would even consider doing. To trick the Tullys and Catelyn about this is something I think would be totally out of Ned's character and something he would never do.

 

On 12/15/2016 at 8:05 PM, The Twinslayer said:

The old theory was that all of this explained why Ashara committed suicide:  she found out that her "husband" had put her aside and taken a new wife, so she killed herself.  But perhaps there is a better theory.

My question is how does one put a wife aside when one never acknowledges her?

On 12/15/2016 at 8:05 PM, The Twinslayer said:

Lyanna died in a "bed of blood," suggesting that she may have had a child by Rhaegar after Rhaegar kidnapped her.  Post-ADWD, we can tie up that loose end by suggesting that Ashara did not kill herself after all:  she reinvented herself as Septa Lemore and smuggled the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna out to Essos to live in exile and to one day take the name Young Griff -- which ties in nicely with the statement in the appendix to AGOT that "The Targaryens are the blood of the dragon, descended from the high lords of the ancient Freehold of Valyria, their heritage proclaimed in a striking (some say inhuman) beauty, with lilac or indigo or violet eyes and hair of silver-gold or platinum white."  Of course, Young Griff fits that description while Jon does not

We have been over the different descriptions of Jon and Young Griff a million times. That one has a more Targaryen look than the other really means nothing about who Jon's mother is. It does mean something about whether or not Young Griff could be Aegon, but that is an entirely different discussion. I agree with you that Ashara is likely still alive and living as Septa Lemore, but that doesn't indicate a thing about her being Jon's mother. 

On 12/15/2016 at 8:05 PM, The Twinslayer said:

Which all brings into ironic focus Jon's memory of play-fighting with Robb and pretending he is wielding Ice only to have Robb tell him he can't wield Ice because he is not the Lord of Winterfell.  In fact, Jon should be the Lord of Winterfell.

Or this is just a way to show how Jon's status as a bastard effects even his most beloved brother in a matter as simple as play.

On 12/15/2016 at 8:05 PM, The Twinslayer said:

It also answers the usual questions from the R+L=J thread, like "if Ashara is Jon's mother, why did Ned never tell him."  The answer is that Ned can't get into the fact that he married Ashara before he married Catelyn without undermining the alliance that put Robert on the throne.  "Why did Ned lie to Robert and say the mother was Wylla."  Because he didn't want to rip open the alliance and he did not want to confuse the line of succession for Winterfell.  And so on.     

I think you are better off without the unsupported secret marriage as an explanation for any of this. We've talked before about how Martin's remarks about Ashara not being "nailed to the floor in Dorne" gives the opening for a meeting between Ned and Ashara during the timeline in question, and I still think that is the best idea for this theory. I don't have a problem with Ned not telling Robert or anyone else about such a meeting if it took place. It would place his family at risk to have been known to be sleeping with an intimate of Rhaegar's inner circle during the rebellion, and it is a stain on Ashara's honor that he would not readily admit to. The problem for me in all of this is that there really isn't any clues that any of this took place. No positive evidence. 

I also want to know why the Daynes say both there was a romance between Ned and Ashara, and then claim Wylla the household wet-nurse is the mother of Ned's child? This doesn't make any sense really. There is a deeper mystery here. I also notice you totally skip Ashara's stillborn child. Why? Is it timeline problems?

Anyway a few thoughts on your essay. A thought provoking one, even if I have my disagreements with it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The suggestion of Ashara Dayne and her other mentions are a means of misdirection. The RLJ pieces are in place and thoroughly hinted at from the outset, and readers would probably examine them more closely if they didn't have an alternative so plainly stated. 

My feeling is that misdirection is happens in a fairly straightforward, superficial way. We saw that with Tansy, only to have the real meaning shown in Lysa's final act. The hints at RLJ are more subtle and tied into broader themes, "Kings hiding under the snow", "corn...king...". There is far too much foreshadowing and symbolism regarding Jon's royalty and parentage for it all to be misdirection. That would basically mean that the game-changing character is someone we hardly know and who seems to lack the thematic significance we'd expect from the role.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

<snip

Is a secret wedding between Ned and Ashara any more unlikely than the secret marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna that is so popular on the R+L=J threads?

<snip

Actually yes.

Rhaegar thought he needed another child and had a wife who couldn't have any more children. Even without the whole dragon must have three heads business, there's a tradition amongst feudal nobility of having at least two sons so that if anything happens to The Heir, you still have The Spare. 

Rhaegar also was the crown prince, and thus expected to be king in the future. He was also rather well-liked. Between those two things, getting a dispensation/waiver from the High Septon is certainly not out of the question. 

If you add the prophecy back in, because we are dealing with the Faith of the Seven here, The Dragon that was Promised was supposed to not only save the whole world (including the High Septon) but also come of the Targaryen line. That's more incentive to give Rhaegar what he wanted. 

Rhaegar also would have needed to keep a marriage with Lyanna secret until she'd produced a healthy son. For one thing he needed to be able to say "See, I was right. Here's the second son I needed." and for another he did not want either his crazy father or the Martells to know about it until it was too late to be undone. A living child would be concrete proof that the marriage had been consummated.

Ned had no wife unable to bear him more children. He had no prophecy. He didn't need any kind of dispensation. And he certainly was not going to sit on the Iron Throne at any point. He was of age so he didn't need his father's permission to marry, and presumably Ashara was also able to enter into a marriage without permission (otherwise it wouldn't be valid--see Tywin's response to Tyrion's marrying a crofter's daughter). So there would be no reason to keep their marriage secret. It was not going go overshadow Brandon and Cat's marriage, or Robert and Lyanna's. Both of those weddings would be lavish affairs with brides becoming wives of the future Lords Paramount of the North and Stormlands respectively. It wasn't until months later that Lyanna disappeared, and the war started, so they didn't have that excuse for keeping things quiet either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Question that just occurred to me: why would Ashara accept an Old Gods marriage in front of a heart tree? The Daynes follow the Seven, as evidenced by the fact that they have knights, something instituted by the Faith of the Seven and nonexistent in Westeros prior to the Andal invasion. 

Though this actually makes the idea of her being Lemore more likely, as she'd need to know the Faith of the Seven well to teach Young Griff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1. When Cat presses Ned on the identity of Jon's mom, Ned tells her "he is my blood," not "he is my son." I'm not one of those who believe that every single line is ASOIAF is fraught with hidden meaning and foreshadowing, but I do think that this line is very carefully considered by both Ned and GRRM. A careful evasion that sounds like a strong declarative statement.

2. I agree with those who say that honoring his promise to Lyanna and protecting Jon from being murdered by Robert are the strongest motivators for Ned to lie about Jon's parentage. Even if there was some secret-marriage scenario and alliances were in jeopardy, I believe that Ned's honor would have compelled him to fess up about N+A=J once Ashara was dead and the war was over.

3. I agree with cgrav above that we have to consider meta issues like story structure. Dany is the known princess, Jon is the hidden prince, Young Griff is the false prince. Sure, there could be a scenario in which Jon is a red herring and he and YG switch roles, but that would be weaker storytelling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

 

1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Question that just occurred to me: why would Ashara accept an Old Gods marriage in front of a heart tree? The Daynes follow the Seven, as evidenced by the fact that they have knights, something instituted by the Faith of the Seven and nonexistent in Westeros prior to the Andal invasion. 

Though this actually makes the idea of her being Lemore more likely, as she'd need to know the Faith of the Seven well to teach Young Griff.

Dayne is one of the oldest families in Westeros. Even though their religious allegiance is still shrouded in mystery (deliberately in my opinion) I think it would be safe to say they do take in the old gods as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, King Merrett I Frey said:

 

Dayne is one of the oldest families in Westeros. Even though their religious allegiance is still shrouded in mystery (deliberately in my opinion) I think it would be safe to say they do take in the old gods as well.

I actually mentioned up-thread that they claim to go back farther than almost any other family. Only one of the Shett families in the Vale makes the same claim to being 10,000+ years old. But that does not necessarily make any difference to which religion they claim. Ser Arthur Dayne could not be "Ser" Arthur Dayne unless he followed the Faith of the Seven, nor could any other Dayne knights since the Andal invasion. So far as we know there are no weirwoods in Dorne. If the Daynes still kept the Old Gods they would have to have weirwoods. Even the Blackwoods have kept their dead heart tree (claiming the Brackens deliberately killed the poor tree), and they are the only house in the Riverlands to keep the Old Gods. 

The Lannisters cite Lann the Clever from the Age of Heroes as their founder. Yet they keep the Seven, as do most of the Westerosi Houses outside of the North, the Blackwoods being the only notable exception. Even Houses claiming descent from Garth Greenhand himself converted after the Andal invasion.

Unless we learn otherwise there's little reason to think the Daynes still keep the Old Gods.

House Dayne itself is definitely deliberately shrouded in mystery. GRRM keeps bringing them up, but not giving us much concrete information about them. They even had a member known as the Sword of the Evening once. Very intriguing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

 

They even had a member known as the Sword of the Evening once. Very intriguing.

OT: That may have a more simple explanation. The Sword of the Evening was the last Dayne King who was sent to the Wall by Nymeria, so that title sounds more like an alias coined after Nymeria's War events.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/15/2016 at 8:43 PM, The Twinslayer said:

There is no issue with Jon's age.  If Ned is lying about Jon's origins, we don't know what his actual age is relative to other characters.  If Ned is telling the truth about Jon's age, so what?  Given how far Catelyin was able to move during the War of Five Kings, and given that we know Ned was in the Riverland.s Vale, Dorne, North and Crownlands during the rebellion, why for a second believe that Ned and Ashara could not have conceived Jon long before or long after Robb was conceived?

The point is, it seems to me, to understand why, if Ashara is Jon's mom, would Ned lie about the timing of his birth? If Ned is telling the truth about Jon's name day we know he is younger than Robb and that fits with what Ned told Cat. If we are to accept the Ashara as Jon's mom theory then we need to understand why Ned would lie, as you are suggesting he did, about Jon's age? My point is there is likely no point in Ned lying to change a date for Ashara, as their is if Jon is Rhaegar and Lyanna's child. With Lyanna it would be to separate Jon's birth from Lyanna's death.

There is a point to hiding who Jon's mother is if she is Ashara. It is the basic fact any meeting took place between Ned and Ashara during the rebellion that Ned would need to hide, not the simple date of it. The meeting itself is likely treason, not the date it took place. And even if we accept he wants to hide the timing of the conception that does not mean he must hide the date of Jon's birth. Not all pregnancies last exactly nine moons.

The reason not to believe Jon was conceived long before or long after Robb was conceived is that the author tells us Jon is "eight or nine months or thereabouts" older than Daenerys and we know when she was born. That places Jon's birth approximately the time of the sack or a month so after the sack. And it places Jon's conception about three or four months into a year long rebellion. That rules out any "long before or long after" conception. You know this. I know you have tried to raise objections to whether or not these remarks from Martin are still valid, but I see no reason to think they are not. Neither R+L=J or N+A=J are ruled out by this timeline.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Also Ashara should be in her 30s, and Lemore is over 40.

The birth-date calculation made on http://awoiaf.westeros.org/ suggests the possibility that they are the same person.

Ashara Dayne: Born between 260-269 BC

Septa Lemore being born 259 BC or earlier.

The one year gap  (259 versus 260) is in my opinion no knock-out-criterion, given possible imprecisions in age estimations.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

The birth-date calculation made on http://awoiaf.westeros.org/ suggests the possibility that they are the same person.

Ashara Dayne: Born between 260-269 BC

Septa Lemore being born 259 BC or earlier.

The one year gap  (259 versus 260) is in my opinion no knock-out-criterion, given possible imprecisions in age estimations.

Taking wiki estimates as hard numbers is a little misleading. What we do have, instead of the seemingly exact ranges, is: in some interview, GRRM says that Ashara Dayne would have been in her thirties; and Tyrion judging Lemore to be in her forties. Oh, and at Harrenhal, grown-ass men (like Ned Stark, and even Ser Barristan the Old) were smitten with Ashara, which establishes (I pray) that she was substantially older than twelve, which the wiki - being silly - allows. The latter also illustrates my point about not relying on the wiki without digging a little bit deeper.

Might be Tyrion misjudged Lemore's age. Might be she aged faster (a real Ashara Dayne would certainly have reasons for that). But, for now, considering that the only two points of data make Lemore older than Ashara would be, that's the version I'm accepting for now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

The birth-date calculation made on http://awoiaf.westeros.org/ suggests the possibility that they are the same person.

Ashara Dayne: Born between 260-269 BC

Septa Lemore being born 259 BC or earlier.

The one year gap  (259 versus 260) is in my opinion no knock-out-criterion, given possible imprecisions in age estimations.

That calculation is often very helpful, but it isn't this time.  Ashara was an unmarried woman in a medieval society. So far as we know she wasn't even betrothed. Given that nobles were usually paired off politically rather early on, it's already odd that Ned (in his 20s) isn't promised to someone. With Ashara it's possible that her father was waiting for the best conceivable offer, perhaps a Lannister or Stark for his precious little girl. But the idea of her being old enough to be Lemore who according to the calculation is 41 is stretching the bounds of credibility a bit for the setting. If Lemore's birth year is calculated correctly then she would have been 22 at Harrenhal. Noble girls who were at least decent looking did not stay unmarried to age 22...unless they were secretly betrothed to a Targaryen prince, and Ashara couldn't have been.

One other possible hold-up on Ashara becoming betrothed would be if her family was in the noble-but-poor category. However, lack of a dowry, or a puny one, generally wouldn't make a huge difference to a girl in the category of legendary beauty as it seems Ashara was. There's always somebody who has enough money that he doesn't need any from his bride's family and wants the girl badly enough to marry her with no extra considerations. Ned himself could have offered for her even without his father's consent. Might have gotten him in some hot water with daddy, if Lord Rickard wanted a financially beneficial match for his second son, but chances are Ned could have taken his bride and lived in the Vale.

You're right that a one year gap wouldn't rule out anything on an adult character, but the calculation gave a range of nine years during which Ashara might have been born. If she was born at the end of the range, then she'd be a full ten years younger than Lemore. The actual gap probably is not at either extreme end, but somewhere in the middle. Ashara being 14-17 at Harrenhal makes the most sense. Lyanna was 14 at Harrenhal and Cat was 17 if I recall correctly, with Cersei somewhere in there too. The "girls" were probably all in the same rough age group.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

That calculation is often very helpful, but it isn't this time.  Ashara was an unmarried woman in a medieval society. So far as we know she wasn't even betrothed. Given that nobles were usually paired off politically rather early on, it's already odd that Ned (in his 20s) isn't promised to someone. With Ashara it's possible that her father was waiting for the best conceivable offer, perhaps a Lannister or Stark for his precious little girl. But the idea of her being old enough to be Lemore who according to the calculation is 41 is stretching the bounds of credibility a bit for the setting. If Lemore's birth year is calculated correctly then she would have been 22 at Harrenhal. Noble girls who were at least decent looking did not stay unmarried to age 22...unless they were secretly betrothed to a Targaryen prince, and Ashara couldn't have been.

One other possible hold-up on Ashara becoming betrothed would be if her family was in the noble-but-poor category. However, lack of a dowry, or a puny one, generally wouldn't make a huge difference to a girl in the category of legendary beauty as it seems Ashara was. There's always somebody who has enough money that he doesn't need any from his bride's family and wants the girl badly enough to marry her with no extra considerations. Ned himself could have offered for her even without his father's consent. Might have gotten him in some hot water with daddy, if Lord Rickard wanted a financially beneficial match for his second son, but chances are Ned could have taken his bride and lived in the Vale.

You're right that a one year gap wouldn't rule out anything on an adult character, but the calculation gave a range of nine years during which Ashara might have been born. If she was born at the end of the range, then she'd be a full ten years younger than Lemore. The actual gap probably is not at either extreme end, but somewhere in the middle. Ashara being 14-17 at Harrenhal makes the most sense. Lyanna was 14 at Harrenhal and Cat was 17 if I recall correctly, with Cersei somewhere in there too. The "girls" were probably all in the same rough age group.

I'd say the most likely age range for Ashara is about the same as Ned or Brandon. which puts Ashara either 37 or 38 in year 300 when Tyrion estimates Lemore's age. Given Lemore's history of living for many years on a Riverboat it isn't hard to see Tyrion being mistaken in his age estimation. It's is a much harder life living outdoors on the Rhoyne river, than it is living at court with servants on hand to do all your chores for you and fetch and cook your meals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...