Theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at CB

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

The warning of the "smiling conspirators" comes from Mel, we need to look among them to find who they are. Clydas is a suspect because holds a key role and as you pointed out he already sent important letters without LC approval. If he is under threat, why doesn't he go to Jon and to denounce them?

Even if Clydas were one of the smiling guys - and who has said that Mel's interpretation there is correct? All we know is that she sees skulls around Jon, the whole part of those skulls symbolizing men who smile at him is interpretation - he definitely isn't a leader. The man is old and weak and not exactly charismatic or a man who appears to inspire or influence others.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

As I said, I'm certain that Clydas read the letter and strongly suspect that it was edited. I agree what you said about Alliser, who might be hiding.  And indeed, there was a lot going on at CB at that time.

Considering that we know that Alliser left on a ranging there is little chance of him keeping contact with anybody at Castle Black. The Wall would be between them, and the Wall is pretty tall.

Your general idea of Bowen trying to stall a mutiny could have some merit but I'd certainly not believe Clydas or even Thorne were pushing Marsh. Thorne definitely is smart enough not to attack the Lord Commander while there is a chance that the man would prevail. The man is too smart to risk his own life in a stupid endeavor.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

My suspicion about Marsh having tried to hold the mutiny is based on:

1) He is honest with Jon about his disappointment regarding decisions concerning  the NW.

I'd see that as evidence that he did not intend to assassinate Jon but rather hoped against hope he would see the light in the end.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

2) Mel mentions that the 'smiling ones'  are the danger.

Problem of interpretation (see above).

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

3) Best timing for a mutiny is between Stannis leaves and Wildings come. Doing after the later passed the Wall is a huge risk. Pretty certain that CB is a big mess right now.

Indeed. The assassins most likely hoped that they can control the mess that's going to come and that this mess would be less deadly than the mess of Roose and Ramsay destroying the Night's Watch after they have put down Jon and his wildlings.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

4) Marsh does the deed himself, in tears!

Indeed. If we compare that to Roose murdering Robb, Olenna/the Tyrells murdering Joffrey, or Littlefinger murdering Lysa things are put into perspective.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

5) The Pink Letter reading is beyond a blunder. Jon is confessing interfering in the realm using enemies of the realm (wildings) for personal goals and he is confessing that the NW did not only help a rebel, but worse the losing side and he is confessing using sorcery. Any member of the NW would have understood that at face value, the facts contained in the letter gives grounds to the warden of the North to intervene the NW.

Notice, I never said that Marsh is innocent. He must have known about the plotting and didn't inform the LC. But he was unconvinced that Jon was truly a traitor until the Pink letter reading.

We should also consider the fact of the mad Hardhome ranging. Marsh clearly thinks that's a mistake, too. Just as much as arming wildlings and offering the Weeper a deal.

9 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Pretty certain that NW debts were attached to the money lend to Stannis. Probably it is not too much anyway. The question about the Iron Bank going big time with Stannis is worth another thread. There is probably more than money involved.

Jon clearly thinks it is more than the NW can easily (or ever) pay back. But that doesn't mean all that much.

I don't think there is much mystery to the Iron Bank backing Stannis. Cersei's actions angered them, that's a pretty good starting point. The other big reason why they might have turned to Stannis rather than Dany (about whom they already might have had reasonably good intelligence) is the fact that they dislike dragons a great deal.

I suggested shortly after ADwD came out that the Free Cities might be drawn into the subsequent wars. Volantis, Lys, and Tyrosh under a different management on Dany's side, Pentos on the side of Aegon (if they can offer any support aside from money), and Braavos on the side of Stannis.

[Greywater-Watch]

Whilst looking for a mastermind of the plot, has anyone ever considered Lord Torghen Flint and/or Lord Brandon Norrey, those two old Mountain tribe leaders who showed no love for Jon's decision to let the Wildlings south of the Wall? Both are present at CB during the last Jon chapters.

[Lord Varys]

44 minutes ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Whilst looking for a mastermind of the plot, has anyone ever considered Lord Torghen Flint and/or Lord Brandon Norrey, those two old Mountain tribe leaders who showed no love for Jon's decision to let the Wildlings south of the Wall? Both are present at CB during the last Jon chapters.

As far as I know those guys weren't suggested. But one can imagine they certainly have issues with the whole idea, as would pretty much all the Northmen. Sigorn may have married Alys Karstark but he is still a savage Thenn from beyond the Wall. The fact that Alys believes the people at Karhold prefer her to Arnolf's brood doesn't mean the Karhold levies and vassals are looking forward to living alongside an army of Thenns. And preferring Alys to Arnolf isn't the same as preferring Alys to Harrion, who is still alive at that point.

But I still wonder why there has to be a person aside from Marsh masterminding the assassination. Marsh is the only officer we know who participated in the assassination. He is the best candidate to be the leader of the gang. The idea that an assassination was plotted by some guys who are definitely not there or only possibly involved simply makes no sense.

Many people suggested in the past that Selyse or Melisandre might have been in on it, too. But that just doesn't make any sense. Selyse opposed Jon's decision to go to Hardhome but even she realized that Jon had supported Stannis as best as he could, and if her men told her about the Pink Letter she certainly would prefer Jon and the wildlings avenging Stannis (if she believed him dead) to giving herself and Shireen up to Ramsay.

My personal guess is that the timing of the assassination makes it very likely that most/all of the alliances Jon tried to make are going to hell. Either in one big explosion of violence at the Wall or because people will continue to mistrust each other now that there is nobody there to keep them in line and try to build bridges between the various factions.

The idea that the clansmen chieftains and Cregan Karstark (once he has been released from his cell) would suffer a wildling like Tormund effectively in control of Castle Black - assuming Tormund and his men avenge Jon Snow by arresting/killing the murderers of Jon Snow or killing a lot of black brothers in their attempt to do so - is very unlikely. Jon Snow was the bastard son of Eddard Stark. He was a Northman through and through. People could grudgingly follow his lead. But the idea that people are just going to continue business as usual after Jon's death is very unlikely.

Eventually Jeyne, Alysane, Tycho, and Massey should arrive and their news about Stannis possibly faking his death should put things back into perspective, yet even that is no guarantee that the Pink Letter was lying about Stannis' death. Unless they quickly receive reliable information on the outcome of the battle(s) near Winterfell from a credible sources chaos and anarchy might prevail at the Wall. Even Tycho Nestoris might cancel the deal he made with both Stannis and Jon Snow after he learns that both of them are (allegedly) dead although I doubt that is the case. I'm very much inclined to believe that Selyse, Shireen, and Ser Axell are going to accompany Nestoris and Massey back to Braavos to collect the money. If Stannis is dead Shireen's only chance of winning the Iron Throne is a lot of money and a huge army of sellswords fighting for her cause.

If Cregan Karstark is freed he could easily enough muster some army of Northmen who fear the migration of the wildlings into their lands and make an attempt to oust the Thenns from Karhold. After all, with Stannis allegedly dead and the Boltons victorious the entire North will sooner or later fall back into line. Karhold will be restored to Cregan Karstark, and the Thenns will be destroyed.

A very likely scenario of the immediate aftermath of the assassination is confusing and desertion, similar to aftermath of Drogo's fatal wound being revealed. It was Jon Snow who kept this fragile alliance together, and with Jon Snow dead many/most of the wildlings will have no good reason to stay at the Wall. Tormund might, but Tormund is Jon's friend. Many of the others aren't.

And while they promised Jon Snow to stay at the Wall and help him fight against the Others they made no such promise to Bowen Marsh and his other assassins. Even if they don't avenge Jon Snow they most certainly won't feel honor-bound to work with his murderers. That would enable them to collect their hostages and perhaps even their valuables and simply leave the Wall for greener lands. They are not very invested into defending that stupid Wall nor is there any reason for them to live through winter this far in the north.

And who knows? Perhaps Marsh's way to buy his life back is to grant the wildlings permission to go wherever the hell they want as long as they don't stay at the Wall. After all, if the Boltons won then they should be able to hunt them down rather quickly if they remain together.

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Whilst looking for a mastermind of the plot, has anyone ever considered Lord Torghen Flint and/or Lord Brandon Norrey, those two old Mountain tribe leaders who showed no love for Jon's decision to let the Wildlings south of the Wall? Both are present at CB during the last Jon chapters.

And yet they provided wet nurses for a wildling "prince" and sent men to fight with Stannis who was the first man to bring wildlings through the wall. They know from Stannis visits and parlays that it was Jon who advized him how to approach them, talk with them, etc. Jon Snow shows himself to be a knowledgeable diplomat about the various houses and people of the North, as well as respecting this.

They're mountain clans and their closest natural allies are Wulls and Liddles, with the latter claiming the roads were safest when there was a Stark at WF, alluding to Ramsay. Oh and they danced on Alys Karstark's wedding to a Thenn. They also seem to be closest still to wildling culture, at least when it comes to type of leadership. Ttheir tales of the cold winter suggests they'd reckon the Others a bigger threat.

Of course that all might be a ruse, but then there is this issue that the wildlings that came with Tormund and were settled in the gift by Jon, and not Stannis, swore personal allegiance to Jon. He's the man who the wildlings respect and adhere to. He's the man who feeds them. He's the man who installed the wildlings who can fight at the Wall. This is not the case at all with Bowen. If they take out Jon, then that would theoretically risk a backlash for their own tribes, as the wildlings would raid and disperse into the neighbouring lands of the Gift, and unlike Boltons, some of these wildlings survived in harsher mountains - the Frostfangs, and are as good if not better than the mountain clans when it comes to such terrain. Even if Jon marches south with a wildling army, it's better to have them go as far as WF and fight the Boltons, than to take out Jon with wildlings at the Wall and Gift ready to go on a rampant of raids in the mountains.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

As far as I know those guys weren't suggested. But one can imagine they certainly have issues with the whole idea, as would pretty much all the Northmen. Sigorn may have married Alys Karstark but he is still a savage Thenn from beyond the Wall. The fact that Alys believes the people at Karhold prefer her to Arnolf's brood doesn't mean the Karhold levies and vassals are looking forward to living alongside an army of Thenns. And preferring Alys to Arnolf isn't the same as preferring Alys to Harrion, who is still alive at that point.

But I still wonder why there has to be a person aside from Marsh masterminding the assassination. Marsh is the only officer we know who participated in the assassination. He is the best candidate to be the leader of the gang. The idea that an assassination was plotted by some guys who are definitely not there or only possibly involved simply makes no sense.

Many people suggested in the past that Selyse or Melisandre might have been in on it, too. But that just doesn't make any sense. Selyse opposed Jon's decision to go to Hardhome but even she realized that Jon had supported Stannis as best as he could, and if her men told her about the Pink Letter she certainly would prefer Jon and the wildlings avenging Stannis (if she believed him dead) to giving herself and Shireen up to Ramsay.

My personal guess is that the timing of the assassination makes it very likely that most/all of the alliances Jon tried to make are going to hell. Either in one big explosion of violence at the Wall or because people will continue to mistrust each other now that there is nobody there to keep them in line and try to build bridges between the various factions.

The idea that the clansmen chieftains and Cregan Karstark (once he has been released from his cell) would suffer a wildling like Tormund effectively in control of Castle Black - assuming Tormund and his men avenge Jon Snow by arresting/killing the murderers of Jon Snow or killing a lot of black brothers in their attempt to do so - is very unlikely. Jon Snow was the bastard son of Eddard Stark. He was a Northman through and through. People could grudgingly follow his lead. But the idea that people are just going to continue business as usual after Jon's death is very unlikely.

Eventually Jeyne, Alysane, Tycho, and Massey should arrive and their news about Stannis possibly faking his death should put things back into perspective, yet even that is no guarantee that the Pink Letter was lying about Stannis' death. Unless they quickly receive reliable information on the outcome of the battle(s) near Winterfell from a credible sources chaos and anarchy might prevail at the Wall. Even Tycho Nestoris might cancel the deal he made with both Stannis and Jon Snow after he learns that both of them are (allegedly) dead although I doubt that is the case. I'm very much inclined to believe that Selyse, Shireen, and Ser Axell are going to accompany Nestoris and Massey back to Braavos to collect the money. If Stannis is dead Shireen's only chance of winning the Iron Throne is a lot of money and a huge army of sellswords fighting for her cause.

If Cregan Karstark is freed he could easily enough muster some army of Northmen who fear the migration of the wildlings into their lands and make an attempt to oust the Thenns from Karhold. After all, with Stannis allegedly dead and the Boltons victorious the entire North will sooner or later fall back into line. Karhold will be restored to Cregan Karstark, and the Thenns will be destroyed.

A very likely scenario of the immediate aftermath of the assassination is confusing and desertion, similar to aftermath of Drogo's fatal wound being revealed. It was Jon Snow who kept this fragile alliance together, and with Jon Snow dead many/most of the wildlings will have no good reason to stay at the Wall. Tormund might, but Tormund is Jon's friend. Many of the others aren't.

And while they promised Jon Snow to stay at the Wall and help him fight against the Others they made no such promise to Bowen Marsh and his other assassins. Even if they don't avenge Jon Snow they most certainly won't feel honor-bound to work with his murderers. That would enable them to collect their hostages and perhaps even their valuables and simply leave the Wall for greener lands. They are not very invested into defending that stupid Wall nor is there any reason for them to live through winter this far in the north.

And who knows? Perhaps Marsh's way to buy his life back is to grant the wildlings permission to go wherever the hell they want as long as they don't stay at the Wall. After all, if the Boltons won then they should be able to hunt them down rather quickly if they remain together.

Is all hell about to break loose at the Wall? Almost certainly, yes.

However, a lot of your further speculation relies on Jon being dead for a considerable period of time. I see it slightly differently.

The immediate fallout at the Wall will be fairly chaotic. A lot of murder and mayhem, no doubt. But in terms of timing, Tycho and company seems to depart from Stannis maybe a few days - a week at most - before the Pink letter is written. If Jon is only meant to be "dead" for say three days or so, then Tycho, Alysane, Jeyne and Massey may just arrive in time to witness Jon's ressurection.

They, together with the two Mountain Clan lords may be the people who bear witness to this momentous event. Meaning a staunchly loyalist and trustworthy Northern House (House Mormont), two trusted Mounain Clansmen and a representative of the Iron Bank of Braavos.

Tycho's bargaining with Jon was given way too much emphasis and screentime to become meaningless, and since the Watch is almost certainly doomed pretty soon, it can only have any meaning if Jon himself remains to represent his side of the bargain. And unless Tycho witnesses his resurrection himself, he is unlikely to keep the agreement alive from his side.

One imagines that Jon's dealings with Tycho only set up a future relationship between King Jon Stark/Targaryen and the Iron Bank that will serve a greater purpose in rebulding Westeros as a whole after the Long Winter.

As for Selyse and Shireen, you cannot seriously think that their story will be dragged out by sending them to Braavos in Winds. Their role will surely be concluded in Winds. There simply is not enough story left for them to return with 20k sellswords to push Stannis's claim any further.

Regarding Cregan Karstark and the wildlings at Karhold. The Thenn's are going to be a minimal presence in the Karhold lands. 300 warriors. Maybe a thousand people in total? That represents less than 1% of the population of the Karstark lands. If Harrion returns they will likely become a petty lordship as vassals to Karhold. Plenty of room for them without disrupting the Karstark society in any way.

Besides, there is not enough story left to see Cregan Karstark raise an army of Northmen to besiege Karhold.

So in conclusion, yes, things will be chaotic and bloody at the Wall at the start of Winds. But I think it will settle sooner than you think, one way or another.

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Is all hell about to break loose at the Wall? Almost certainly, yes.

However, a lot of your further speculation relies on Jon being dead for a considerable period of time. I see it slightly differently.

Well, if there is chaos, murder, and mayhem then this actually necessitates that Jon stays dead for quite some time. After all, people won't try to resurrect him (or even bury him) while there is chaos at the Wall.

17 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The immediate fallout at the Wall will be fairly chaotic. A lot of murder and mayhem, no doubt. But in terms of timing, Tycho and company seems to depart from Stannis maybe a few days - a week at most - before the Pink letter is written. If Jon is only meant to be "dead" for say three days or so, then Tycho, Alysane, Jeyne and Massey may just arrive in time to witness Jon's ressurection.

We have no idea when the Pink Letter was written aside from the fact that it must have been written after Jeyne's escape. It could have been hours after that fact, or days or weeks thereafter. We simply don't know. It depends on what you see as lies in the letter. And I'm not inclined to take Ramsay's word at anything. The only thing I'm willing to believe is that Ramsay got his hands on at least on of the spearwives and/or perhaps even on Mance himself. He could have gotten all his knowledge from those sources.

17 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

They, together with the two Mountain Clan lords may be the people who bear witness to this momentous event. Meaning a staunchly loyalist and trustworthy Northern House (House Mormont), two trusted Mounain Clansmen and a representative of the Iron Bank of Braavos.

Well, that would mean all those people are still alive at that point. There is also the fact to consider that there must be a narrative purpose to Theon insisting that Jeyne never reveal her true identity to anybody. If Jon were still dead while she arrives at the Wall and is then taken with Selyse and Shireen to Braavos her true identity might remain a secret.

People have suggested Arya might steal Jeyne's face and return in her stead to Westeros. I'm not sure that's going to happen but it is an interesting idea.

17 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Tycho's bargaining with Jon was given way too much emphasis and screentime to become meaningless, and since the Watch is almost certainly doomed pretty soon, it can only have any meaning if Jon himself remains to represent his side of the bargain. And unless Tycho witnesses his resurrection himself, he is unlikely to keep the agreement alive from his side.

Indeed, but then, if Shireen and Selyse go to Braavos and collect the money promised to Stannis they could eventually return with some sellswords that play eventually a role in the North.

17 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

One imagines that Jon's dealings with Tycho only set up a future relationship between King Jon Stark/Targaryen and the Iron Bank that will serve a greater purpose in rebulding Westeros as a whole after the Long Winter.

That is not very likely in my opinion. Again, the North and the Watch have nothing to offer to the Iron Bank, especially not in regards to the monies the Iron Throne owes the Iron Bank. The Iron Bank wants that money back. That's why they contacted Stannis. The North isn't going to help with that.

17 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for Selyse and Shireen, you cannot seriously think that their story will be dragged out by sending them to Braavos in Winds. Their role will surely be concluded in Winds. There simply is not enough story left for them to return with 20k sellswords to push Stannis's claim any further.

Why not? George has told us he hadn't yet written Shireen's death scene when the show killed her. The man isn't all that good at predicting how much volumes his story is going to take and nothing in ADwD suggests that he is trying to race to the end. If he wanted to do that he wouldn't have introduced as many new plots in the last books as he did. The idea that this could be wrapped up in only two books is simply insane.

We might be half through TWoW before the immediate aftermath of the two major battles is resolved, especially if other plotlines continue, too.

17 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Regarding Cregan Karstark and the wildlings at Karhold. The Thenn's are going to be a minimal presence in the Karhold lands. 300 warriors. Maybe a thousand people in total? That represents less than 1% of the population of the Karstark lands. If Harrion returns they will likely become a petty lordship as vassals to Karhold. Plenty of room for them without disrupting the Karstark society in any way.

Well, it could still come to violence if the Thenns took possession of Karhold and are holding against Harrion. A garrison of 300 men is pretty strong. And Cregan might in the meantime play on the resentment of the wildlings in the Karhold lands.

17 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Besides, there is not enough story left to see Cregan Karstark raise an army of Northmen to besiege Karhold.

So in conclusion, yes, things will be chaotic and bloody at the Wall at the start of Winds. But I think it will settle sooner than you think, one way or another.

Nobody says we have to get a POV depicting Cregan raising some host. It is just an idea of something that might happen to complicate things further. The man clearly is at the Wall to play a role.

[rotting sea cow]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Even if Clydas were one of the smiling guys - and who has said that Mel's interpretation there is correct? All we know is that she sees skulls around Jon, the whole part of those skulls symbolizing men who smile at him is interpretation - he definitely isn't a leader. The man is old and weak and not exactly charismatic or a man who appears to inspire or influence others.

IIRC, Mel's warning predates her chapter, so we don't know what her vision was. But I agree about interpretation problems that it is certainly a issue (specially with Mel!). Regarding charisma, this also applies to Marsh, the guy seems good only for counting stuff, but there are indeed few people left who could have led them.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Considering that we know that Alliser left on a ranging there is little chance of him keeping contact with anybody at Castle Black. The Wall would be between them, and the Wall is pretty tall.

Yes, this is a problem with Alliser possible role. He left quite a while ago and there are no news of him. He is unlikely to have came to CB. He could have gone to Eastwatch, but only after Pyke left, which doesn't give him enough time. Another possibility is the Black Gate, however after Sam-Bran encounter there is no mention of it again. Supposedly, Sam showed it to Stannis (and maybe others) but then it was "offscreen" and there were no flashbacks in later chapters. 

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Jon clearly thinks it is more than the NW can easily (or ever) pay back. But that doesn't mean all that much.

I don't think there is much mystery to the Iron Bank backing Stannis. Cersei's actions angered them, that's a pretty good starting point. The other big reason why they might have turned to Stannis rather than Dany (about whom they already might have had reasonably good intelligence) is the fact that they dislike dragons a great deal.

I suggested shortly after ADwD came out that the Free Cities might be drawn into the subsequent wars. Volantis, Lys, and Tyrosh under a different management on Dany's side, Pentos on the side of Aegon (if they can offer any support aside from money), and Braavos on the side of Stannis.

I don't think we need to put to much thought about IB loan to the NW.  I'm starting a new thread regarding the role of the free cities in the 'wars to come'

43 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We have no idea when the Pink Letter was written aside from the fact that it must have been written after Jeyne's escape. It could have been hours after that fact, or days or weeks thereafter. We simply don't know. It depends on what you see as lies in the letter. And I'm not inclined to take Ramsay's word at anything. The only thing I'm willing to believe is that Ramsay got his hands on at least on of the spearwives and/or perhaps even on Mance himself. He could have gotten all his knowledge from those sour

Notice that Mance or the spearwives do not know that Selyse and Shireen are at CB. At best they know they are at Eastwacht (granted, still under Jon protection), but either someone informed Ramsay about it or that part was 'added' to the Pink Letter.

BTW, I agree with you that the argument about 'there is no enough story left' is silly. There is a lot of story left! Probably GRRM is sick of this book but I believe he is committed to finish it in a proper way, even if it takes another 20 years and five more books. 

 

[Suzanna Stormborn]

8 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

 

BTW, I agree with you that the argument about 'there is no enough story left' is silly. There is a lot of story left! Probably GRRM is sick of this book but I believe he is committed to finish it in a proper way, even if it takes another 20 years and five more books. 

 

Agreed!! totally IMPOSSIBLE to finish in 2 books.  

Just based on the amount of new characters in Sansa's WoW chapter alone.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

IIRC, Mel's warning predates her chapter, so we don't know what her vision was. But I agree about interpretation problems that it is certainly a issue (specially with Mel!). Regarding charisma, this also applies to Marsh, the guy seems good only for counting stuff, but there are indeed few people left who could have led them.

Yeah, her first warning is Jon's first chapter, yet we know she later sees the skulls again in her first chapter. Skulls sort of smile but it is difficult to see how she took the part that the men intending to kill Jon smiled at him. It is not unlikely that this is just her usual routine when she cannot exactly identify a dangerous person in the flames.

4 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yes, this is a problem with Alliser possible role. He left quite a while ago and there are no news of him. He is unlikely to have came to CB. He could have gone to Eastwatch, but only after Pyke left, which doesn't give him enough time. Another possibility is the Black Gate, however after Sam-Bran encounter there is no mention of it again. Supposedly, Sam showed it to Stannis (and maybe others) but then it was "offscreen" and there were no flashbacks in later chapters.

But then, if Thorne came back where are his companions? Did he kill them? Or are they his men now? Thorne would have to talk to Marsh directly to influence him in any meaningful way and is it plausible that Marsh can just sneak away unseen?

I'm more interested in who and what Thorne met on his actual ranging beyond the Wall. That could very well tie into some plans of the Others to attack the Wall in the not so distant future.

4 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I don't think we need to put to much thought about IB loan to the NW.  I'm starting a new thread regarding the role of the free cities in the 'wars to come'.

Be my guest. That certainly could be an interesting topic to revisit.

4 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Notice that Mance or the spearwives do not know that Selyse and Shireen are at CB. At best they know they are at Eastwacht (granted, still under Jon protection), but either someone informed Ramsay about it or that part was 'added' to the Pink Letter.

As Lord Commander Jon would still have authority at Eastwatch. And Ramsay never says that Selyse and Shireen are at Castle Black in the Pink Letter, does he?

4 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

BTW, I agree with you that the argument about 'there is no enough story left' is silly. There is a lot of story left! Probably GRRM is sick of this book but I believe he is committed to finish it in a proper way, even if it takes another 20 years and five more books. 

Yeah, George certainly has problems controlling this story but there is no hint he is committed to this 'only seven books routine'. He expanded on the original trilogy concept and then the series just grew larger and larger.

From a conceptual viewpoint it is insane to discuss the series with the expectation that 'there are only two books left'.

I didn't believe three books would be enough to finish the story before ADwD came out. But back then I used to say I'd believe that we are approaching the end if ADwD ended with the attack of the Others and the fall of the Wall. Then TWoW could build up the grand finale and ADoS actually depict the grand finale and its aftermath. But the way things are now that's completely impossible.

If there were only two books the Others would be weird, clumsily added footnote to intricately and detailed depicted game of thrones. And that's not the point of the series. The series is about the Song of Ice and Fire, not the game of thrones. And the Song of Ice and Fire is about the fight against the Others. They are the main antagonists, not some ambitious (and ruthless) politicians.

[rotting sea cow]

 

43 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, her first warning is Jon's first chapter, yet we know she later sees the skulls again in her first chapter. Skulls sort of smile but it is difficult to see how she took the part that the men intending to kill Jon smiled at him. It is not unlikely that this is just her usual routine when she cannot exactly identify a dangerous person in the flames.

She says that she can name them, but Jon doesn't want to hear. Of course we know that Mel has a different agenda and her intentions might be different and she is far from perfect in interpreting her visions.

 

46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But then, if Thorne came back where are his companions? Did he kill them? Or are they his men now? Thorne would have to talk to Marsh directly to influence him in any meaningful way and is it plausible that Marsh can just sneak away unseen?

I'm more interested in who and what Thorne met on his actual ranging beyond the Wall. That could very well tie into some plans of the Others to attack the Wall in the not so distant future.

I think Marsh went to Nightfort to check the state of the castle. I don't recall now when. He could have met Alliser there, or not. I'm not fully convinced either about Thorne's role. We will need to wait. You raise some important point however. Alliser seems to be one of the few (even in the NW) who consider the Others as a real threat. His future role may be then different.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

She says that she can name them, but Jon doesn't want to hear. Of course we know that Mel has a different agenda and her intentions might be different and she is far from perfect in interpreting her visions.

Sure, but it is really odd that Mel wouldn't have told Jon that Marsh would kill him if she knew that. That would be very odd, and nothing in her chapter indicates she knows any names.

4 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I think Marsh went to Nightfort to check the state of the castle. I don't recall now when. He could have met Alliser there, or not. I'm not fully convinced either about Thorne's role. We will need to wait. You raise some important point however. Alliser seems to be one of the few (even in the NW) who consider the Others as a real threat. His future role may be then different.

The problem there is that the Nightfort is prepared as Stannis' future seat. Would Thorne hide there while expecting that Stannis or Selyse could show up there in the near future? That doesn't make much sense to me. Not to mention that there are builders right now at the Nightfort to prepare it for Stannis and Selyse.

And again, I don't think the book Thorne is stupid or idealistic enough to actually want to assassinate Jon Snow. Not under conditions Marsh eventually acts. I buy the idea that Marsh might be an idealist but Thorne is pragmatic enough to do what's best for Thorne. That's why he teamed up with Slynt, a confirmed Lannister toady - and Thorne hates the Lannisters even more than the Starks.

Thorne would have allowed Jon to march against Ramsay and die alongside his wildlings. He would have played his cards trying to get back in their good graces with the Boltons after the Bastard was dead. Marsh motives in murdering Jon might in part be connected to his intention to prevent the wildlings from killing good Northmen in Jon's doomed campaign against the Boltons. After all, House Marsh is from the North.

[Clegane'sPup]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but it is really odd that Mel wouldn't have told Jon that Marsh would kill him if she knew that. That would be very odd, and nothing in her chapter indicates she knows any names.

Martin doesn't seem to do anything simple. I would very much like it if during your discussions you would occasionally add a text reference. Thanks.

Some readers call Jon's supposed death an assassination (attempt). Other people call it an execution. I call the attempt on LC Snow's life a mutiny. Until Martin let's loose of WoW no one is wrong. Personally I think Snow is merely wounded. I can't back that up because of Martin's cliffhanger.

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

She says that she can name them, but Jon doesn't want to hear. Of course we know that Mel has a different agenda and her intentions might be different and she is far from perfect in interpreting her visions.

If either of you would give me a source quote it would be helpful.

 

[sweetsunray]

Quite honestly, while I think Thorne very much wants Jon dead before the election and is trying to get Slynt selected to curry favor with Tywin, I'm not so convinced he's part of the mutiny/assassination. I think his personality is shite, but he is smarter than Marsh and as a knight who fought in wars much more military minded. I think he would shy away from actually murdering his military commander like that, no matter whether he thinks of him as a Stark traitor, a bastard and hates Jon's guts. He went on that raid. He couldn't not follow his commander's order. That's the wood he's cut from. In fact, I think he gave Thorne a position and a mission that would actually end up pleasing Thorn (although he'd hate to admit it). He's a soldier type and undoubtedly a good fighter. Jeor gave him command over recruits, but the result was that for 15 years Alisser was mostly stuck inside CB, mostly only having farmer boys and petty thieves to train. A part of him was bored and angry that being on the losing side of RR ended with him training such boys into shape, and he released his frustration on the boys. Then he was sent on a diplomatic mission, and that was all wrong too. He then tries for LC or get Slynt elected. But as a ranger he can finally flex his fighting and military muscles (including mentally).  

I can't but help notice that Dywen is part of his ranging party. Dywen is a smart ranger with a very good nose, who survived the Fist and Craster's mutiny (one of the 13 total that made it back) and the Bridge of Skulls (IIRC). So, that ranging party imo is in safe hands with Dywen.

I do think there is a high chance they had an encounter with wights, but survived it. That would be the first time Alisser is confronted first hand with the danger, and it would knock some sense in him imo. Having a military mind, I'm pretty sure he'd realize then that keeping the Others from making more wights is essential, and that a mutiny or assassination against the LC is the worst thing that could happen, nor can you allow an aggressor like the Boltons attack you in your back.

As I understand Alliser's military character, I think it's quite possible that he makes it back to CB before Jon's healed/resurrected and I think he would denounce Marsh et all for their actions. Heck, I think he'd order them hanged. The guy's a prick, but he's not stupid either.

Marsh can count. He's not a hateful person as Alliser, but he's not a military guy, and doesn't have an ounce of strategic insight, stubbornly holding onto conservative beliefs even when they endager the life and realm.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Martin doesn't seem to do anything simple. I would very much like it if during your discussions you would occasionally add a text reference. Thanks.

I do that occasionally. You can go back to Jon's first chapter in ADwD and reread his conversation with Melisandre there. That's where she first talks about Jon being in danger.

3 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Some readers call Jon's supposed death an assassination (attempt). Other people call it an execution. I call the attempt on LC Snow's life a mutiny. Until Martin let's loose of WoW no one is wrong. Personally I think Snow is merely wounded. I can't back that up because of Martin's cliffhanger.

Catelyn was also only wounded until we knew that they had thrown her corpse into the river.

@sweetsunray

Ser Alliser Thorne is just a knight from the Crownlands, possibly a former household knight of House Targaryen. He may be a capable warrior and knight but there is no reason to believe he has a particular military mind because there is no military in the Seven Kingdoms. There are knights, freeriders, and men-at-arms. There are no professional soldiers in Westeros. There is no organized standing military of any sort aside from, perhaps, whatever small garrisons the greater houses keep in their castles. All the soldier-like types that live in Westeros are sellswords and they are essentially mercenaries. A knight from a good family (like Thorne's) never had to sell his sword like a man like Bronn did. That's a soldier-type. Alliser is just a nobleborn prick.

Even cities like King's Landing, Oldtown, and Lannisport just have their city watches, and we know how good those are.

There is no military spirit in Westeros, no clear-cut view of military hierarchies and discipline (the fact that the kneelers are better at discipline than the wildlings is because the latter have no discipline). Noblemen (and Alliser is from a noble house) are born to be the betters of commoners, and they are never forced to serve others or defer to career officers. You follow the commands of your better in the feudal hierarchy, and that has nothing to do with military matters.

I'm not even sure we can call the Night's Watch a military order. They are a sworn brotherhood, and there is clear chain of command, but it's purpose has nothing to do with military matters, nor is it likely that people had a concept of military back when the institution was created.

In general we can only say that we don't know all that much about Ser Alliser. We don't know what kind of man he was back in KL.

[kissdbyfire]

 

@Clegane'sPup, here it is:

“You are wrong. I have dreamed of your Wall, Jon Snow. Great was the lore that raised it, and great the spells locked beneath its ice. We walk beneath one of the hinges of the world.” Melisandre gazed up at it, her breath a warm moist cloud in the air. “This is my place as it is yours, and soon enough you may have grave need of me. Do not refuse my friendship, Jon. I have seen you in the storm, hard-pressed, with enemies on every side. You have so many enemies. Shall I tell you their names?”
“I know their names.”
“Do not be so certain.” The ruby at Melisandre’s throat gleamed red. “It is not the foes who curse you to your face that you must fear, but those who smile when you are looking and sharpen their knives when you turn your back. You would do well to keep your wolf close beside you. Ice, I see, and daggers in the dark. Blood frozen red and hard, and naked steel. It was very cold.

[The Fattest Leech]

4 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Quite honestly, while I think Thorne very much wants Jon dead before the election and is trying to get Slynt selected to curry favor with Tywin, I'm not so convinced he's part of the mutiny/assassination. I think his personality is shite, but he is smarter than Marsh and as a knight who fought in wars much more military minded. I think he would shy away from actually murdering his military commander like that, no matter whether he thinks of him as a Stark traitor, a bastard and hates Jon's guts.

Very much agreed. Jon split the hot tub conspirators up when he could, and Jon just happened to get stuck with the lunkiest of the four. A pomegranate, and pomegranates are duplicitous in the story. Thorne gives Jon a very hard time as soon as Jon got to the wall and he learns who Jon is. It also seems Thorne dislikes the Lannisters (as I think was mentioned in this thread already), and yet the most he seems to do is grumble about Tyrion when he is there.

Quote

He then tries for LC or get Slynt elected. But as a ranger he can finally flex his fighting and military muscles (including mentally).  

Plus, I think while out ranging this is when he feels he has most control, which pleases him.

Quote

I can't but help notice that Dywen is part of his ranging party. Dywen is a smart ranger with a very good nose, who survived the Fist and Craster's mutiny (one of the 13 total that made it back) and the Bridge of Skulls (IIRC). So, that ranging party imo is in safe hands with Dywen.

This is super crazy exciting to me. I love Dywen for some reason. Mr. Wooden teeth that smells the cold (Others), is out ranging with the man that warned Jon:

• Ser Alliser only said, "You would like me to refuse. Then you could hack off my head, same as you did for Slynt. I'll not give you that pleasure, bastard. You'd best pray that it's a wildling blade that kills me, though. The ones the Others kill don't stay dead … and they remember. I'm coming back, Lord Snow."

Quote

 

Marsh can count. He's not a hateful person as Alliser, but he's not a military guy, and doesn't have an ounce of strategic insight, stubbornly holding onto conservative beliefs even when they endager the life and realm.

Correct. The other thing Marsh does is give Jon a hard time with things like making Satin a steward because, get ready to gasp and clutch your pearls, Satin is gay! Marsh also gives Jon a hard time about allowing women to do anything militarial... which is one of the hallmarks of Jon's "progressiveness" and steps he takes to equality. And Marsh gives Jon a hard time about who takes their vows where... basically, he is trying to divert the new recruits from the old gods to the Faith of Seven. Hmmm, what happened the last time someone tried to mess with the old gods in the north by diverting attention to them and sealing them off? I feel like George gave a huge warning about this in the story.

• A Dance with Dragons - Jon VII

Word spread fast at Castle Black. Edd was still saddling the grey when Bowen Marsh stomped across the yard to confront Jon at the stables. "My lord, I wish you would reconsider. The new men can take their vows in the sept as easily."

"The sept is home to the new gods. The old gods live in the wood, and those who honor them say their words amongst the weirwoods. You know that as well as I."

"Satin comes from Oldtown, and Arron and Emrick from the westerlands. The old gods are not their gods."

"I do not tell men which god to worship. They were free to choose the Seven or the red woman's Lord of Light. They chose the trees instead, with all the peril that entails."

57 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

 

@Clegane'sPup, here it is:

“You are wrong. I have dreamed of your Wall, Jon Snow. Great was the lore that raised it, and great the spells locked beneath its ice. We walk beneath one of the hinges of the world.” Melisandre gazed up at it, her breath a warm moist cloud in the air. “This is my place as it is yours, and soon enough you may have grave need of me. Do not refuse my friendship, Jon. I have seen you in the storm, hard-pressed, with enemies on every side. You have so many enemies. Shall I tell you their names?”
“I know their names.”
“Do not be so certain.” The ruby at Melisandre’s throat gleamed red. “It is not the foes who curse you to your face that you must fear, but those who smile when you are looking and sharpen their knives when you turn your back. You would do well to keep your wolf close beside you. Ice, I see, and daggers in the dark. Blood frozen red and hard, and naked steel. It was very cold.

Good quote. I like how it tells you what is happening in the story.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

 

Catelyn was also only wounded until we knew that they had thrown her corpse into the river.

 

you must be joking? You couldn't tell from someone yelling to kill Catelyn and then a knife sliding across her throat that she as killed, as she just did to Jingebell???

• "Mad," someone said, "she's lost her wits," and someone else said, "Make an end," and a hand grabbed her scalp just as she'd done with Jinglebell, and she thought, No, don't, don't cut my hair, Ned loves my hair. Then the steel was at her throat, and its bite was red and cold." >end scene<

[The Fattest Leech]

Also, the Wall in ASOIAF is admittedly based on Hadrian's Wall, as I am sure many, but maybe not all know. George has said so many times and it is an easy search if you want to read about it.

The comparison between Hadrian's Wall and the ice wall are immense. Hadrian's Wall was set up as a military sector, as is the ASOIAF Wall, separate from the political sector of what the Roman Empire had established in England at the time. The ASOIAF Wall is thousands of years older than the rules of current day Westeros, that is why it stands on it's own for jurisdiction. It was set up to protect everyone from the Others and you do that with a military, not a paper decree from King's Landing.

The move to a new wall did not last long as there were those who began to bring politics into Hadrian's Wall... sounds familiar. The two walls are even built the same way and each has a garrison fort every few miles (leagues, whatever). HW had 17 and the ASOIAF wall has 19.

There was even a second wall that was built that was newer and flashier than Hadrian's Wall, but that did not last long and the soliders went back to the "old" Hadrian's Wall. This parallels the move from Nightfort to Deep Lake, and now we are going back to Nighfort again in the story.

If you want to read more about Hadrian's Wall compared to the ASOIAF Wall, I did a comparison on my thread here that includes links and sources, but that is up to the reader.

[sweetsunray]

4 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Plus, I think while out ranging this is when he feels he has most control, which pleases him.

Exactly!

Finally he's with some men of experience out there where the real danger is. He'll curse and mutter he'll kill Jon when he gets back and show 'em. He'll probably act the prick for a while to Dywen and the third too, but at heart he'll be loving it. No more crap with recruits. Dywen (who was given command of the three) is a specialist tracker so he'll respect that. Dywen will make a real ranger out Alliser, I'll bet

The man's a trained knight of the Crownlands. Fought for the Targs during RR. Even in that he doesn't seem much from a political conviction, because he never espouses that. He fought on Targ side, bcause he was of the Crownlands and that was what a bannerman was supposed to do. He accepted the Wall, and he considers Ned a traitor not for rebelling against Aerys, but for allegedly trying to keep Robert's son off the throne, that is the dynasty he once fought against. Alliser is "the boss is the boss and you do what the boss tells ya" kind of guy.

So, he's sent off to freeze his balls off at the Wall, and what was his job? Teach farmer boys how to hold a sword. I'm thinking that behind that thick layer of bile and hatred there's a man inside wanting to do something heroic for once in his life. I'm not saying that training recruits isn't important. It is. But making a man do it who hates it, just because he's well trained himself, ain't the right man. I like how Jon solved that by giving the recruits several trainers, and those were men who liked doing that. Like with so many professions, teaching is a calling. And there are different ways to earn someone else's respect. The stewards take pride in hunting food. The rangers take pride in their ranging. He's training them boys, and they graduate and go on ranging and hunting, while he trains the new batch. I think he felt he was stuck in a rut, stationary, never standing against a real foe anymore, never a chance to show his own skill in a melee, and always seeing nothing else but the yard of CB. Alliser didn't perceive his training of recruits as something to be proud of, so he tried to get it some other way, in a mean way and through cumulation of power. Meanwhile the whole KL debacle shows Alliser isn't cut out for the hoity toity role either.

[The Drunkard]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

 

@Clegane'sPup, here it is:

“You are wrong. I have dreamed of your Wall, Jon Snow. Great was the lore that raised it, and great the spells locked beneath its ice. We walk beneath one of the hinges of the world.” Melisandre gazed up at it, her breath a warm moist cloud in the air. “This is my place as it is yours, and soon enough you may have grave need of me. Do not refuse my friendship, Jon. I have seen you in the storm, hard-pressed, with enemies on every side. You have so many enemies. Shall I tell you their names?”
“I know their names.”
“Do not be so certain.” The ruby at Melisandre’s throat gleamed red. “It is not the foes who curse you to your face that you must fear, but those who smile when you are looking and sharpen their knives when you turn your back. You would do well to keep your wolf close beside you. Ice, I see, and daggers in the dark. Blood frozen red and hard, and naked steel. It was very cold.

On revision this is pretty dumb on both their ends. For Jon, getting a second opinion from a magical prophet on who your enemies are can't hurt, and for Mel, if I was so keen to help someone survive I wouldn't have my warning be so easily brushed off.

[The Fattest Leech]

1 minute ago, The Drunkard said:

On revision this is pretty dumb on both their ends. For Jon, getting a second opinion from a magical prophet on who your enemies are can't hurt, and for Mel, if I was so keen to help someone survive I wouldn't have my warning be so easily brushed off.

I agree. But, from what other magician can Jon use to get a second opinion? And I agree that Mel should have just said who, not teased. However, she is really bad at reading what is being shown to her and has tricked Stannis before.