Where do the loyalties of the Northern Houses lie

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

Those people are clear on the opposite side of the continent from the grand conspirator (Manderly) and aren't particularly strong. Manderly doesn't need everyone and probably hadn't shared is plan with many before he got to Winterfell. Why risk blowing the plan by sending a raven that can be intercepted. 

There are people believing that basically everybody (Howland, Galbart, Maege, Wyman, the Umbers, etc.) are secretly working together trying to fulfill Robb's will or trying to use Stannis to their advantage until they no longer need him. That was the kind of conspiracy I was talking about.

I agree with you that it is much more likely that Wyman (and Robett, who is on the plan, too) are very tight-lipped about the whole thing, informing only people they know they can trust, and those only on a need-to-know basis.

But their conspiracy isn't very elaborate. They want to get Rickon back from Skagos and help Stannis defeat the Boltons at Winterfell if that's possible.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No, Barbrey Dustin is way too powerful to end up in such a fashion. She controls Barrowton and the power of House Dustin and also has a lot influence over the Ryswell.

If she is not with Roose then why the hell didn't she turn on the Boltons and Freys before they reached Barrowton or Winterfell? Of why isn't she arranging her own Red Wedding at her town or at Winterfell? She certainly would have the strength to do so. Nobody would defend the Freys and Boltons if the Dustins and Ryswells would take the lead in the fight against them.

If Roose doesn't have Lady Barbrey's support then he basically has no Northman whatsoever. That sounds very weird in light of the fact that the man actually seem to have some power. The Freys alone aren't enough.

And again - if Lady Dustin doesn't loath the Starks why the hell did she send only so few men to Robb? That doesn't make any sense.

She probably (rightly) thought Robb's was a useless cause.  Just because she didnt want to send her men to die, does not also mean she loves the Boltons.  IDK, it's just a feeling I get based on all her dialogue, she does not hate the Starks, she has just lost a lot supporting them.  But she seems like a smart woman who has serious ulterior motives.  And I have a hard time believing anyone actually wants Roose and Ramsay in charge.  I think she is just playing nice for now.

[Lord Varys]

16 minutes ago, Suzanna Stormborn said:

She probably (rightly) thought Robb's was a useless cause.  Just because she didnt want to send her men to die, does not also mean she loves the Boltons.  IDK, it's just a feeling I get based on all her dialogue, she does not hate the Starks, she has just lost a lot supporting them.  But she seems like a smart woman who has serious ulterior motives.  And I have a hard time believing anyone actually wants Roose and Ramsay in charge.  I think she is just playing nice for now.

She clearly hates Ramsay. Roose not so much, though. He was married to her sister, after all. And keep in mind that she might now Roose's actual plans for Ramsay - which might include his unfortunate death as soon as 'Arya' has given birth to a son, or even as soon as Stannis is defeated. Right now Roose might even set up Ramsay to die in battle against Stannis.

[RedShirt47]

There are been several theories about the snowmen on the walls of Winterfell being significant. They show who are logal to Jon as they are Snow-men. I find the idea fairly convincing and agree with much of it.

Here is what Theon sees:

the squires had erected a dozen snowy lords. One was plainly meant to be Lord Manderly; it was the fattest snowman that Theon had ever seen. The one-armed lord could only be Harwood Stout, the snow lady Barbrey Dustin. And the one closest to the door with the beard made of icicles had to be old Whoresbane Umber.

So there are at least a dozen northern lords and ladies backing Jon including Manderly, Stout, Dustin and Umber.
Do a google and you'll find a couple of threads about this which lay out the argument better than I have here but you get the gist.

We know Manderly is working with a Glover.
We know a Glover was last seen with a Mormont heading to the Reeds (prossibly with Robb's Will).
Hence I think Lyanna Mormont's letter to Stannis about there being a King in the North.
So I believe these Houses are in team Jon.

[estermonty python]

4 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

And the Stark children's mother was a Tully and Robb preys to a weirwood sappling in the Tully godswood, and their grandmother on that side of the family "tree" was a Whent. HH's weirwood is an alive tree too. And Jaime thinks some of the houses at the siege (and those who are absent) are still wolfish at heart. House Mallister also held out for as long as he could, until the Freys threatened to kill his son. And then we have LS leading the BwB that have their head quarters beneath the Hollow Hill amongst weirwood roots, but follow Rh'llor, making for a strange mixture of weirwood with the Lord of Light.

Picking the Blackwoods over the other RL Houses in this manner seems strange, and there's no actual reason imo to suspect the Blackwoods would have a more important role than Mallister, Tully, Piper, Vance and even Whent in their support of the North.

And the reason I include House Whent is the fact that the supposed death of Lady Whent is hearsay, and the old lady in a horse litter with armed guard on the road from Duskendale to Rosby (with the mysterious "ward of Rosby" inside) that Brienne crosses without any mentioning of a sigil is suspect, especially since the "bat" of Lothston is also heavily featured in that same chapter and afterwards at Duskendale.

Anyway, I agree the RL is a complicated matter, and I understand leaving it out, but then I'd leave them out altogether.

Good analysis here.  There are a lot of complicated factors at play.  Here are a few:

• There is a Lannister army in the Riverlands.  Even if every house in the Riverlands had a secret direwolf pup in their kennels, they can't do a damn thing while they are under Lannister occupation.  The fact that Jaime sent a host south does weaken his forces a bit and could be prime for a Riverlands revolt, however.
• As @sweetsunray leads with, Robb was half Tully.  Jon is not.  There's really no incentive for anyone in the Riverlands to support a northern overlord with no ties to their own lands.  On the other hand, deposing the Freys and throwing off the yoke of the IT could be reason enough for some.
• Robb's will could come into play here.  Unless I'm forgetting someone (I might be), 3 surviving witnesses to Robb's will signing are all imprisoned in the Riverlands - Edmure Tully at Riverrun (now in transit to Casterly Rock), Jason Mallister at Seaguard, and Greatjon Umber at the Twins.  If they get out - aka, if the Brotherhood Without Banners Liberation Force is a thing, they could make a move to rally Riverland support.
• The Blackfish could have some sway, depending on where he is and what he does.  If he goes to the Vale, he could bring Sansa in as yet another (possibly competing) Stark rallying point.  If he stays in the Riverlands, his loyalty to the Starks may not extend to Jon, based on his comments to Jaime.  On the other hand, as has been discussed ad nauseum, he was likely shining Jaime on to hide his true intentions, and the two most trusted Tully men, Robin Ryger and Desmond Grell, going to the Wall is likely no coincidence.

[Lord Varys]

The Riverlands situation is completely different. They don't need Stark children there, they have an undead Tully and their living Tully lord. Jon Snow has nothing to offer them.

[Lord Vance II]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Riverlands situation is completely different. They don't need Stark children there, they have an undead Tully and their living Tully lord. Jon Snow has nothing to offer them.

He offers an alternative to the Frey/Lannister clusterfuck they've been dealing with since the Red Wedding. They lost plenty of men at the wedding too and I don't think it would take much for many of the major river lords to rise. BUT, I don't see any Northern army coming south so it probably won't really come up. Maybe they would heed the call fight the battle against the others, but that's about it. 

[estermonty python]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The Riverlands situation is completely different. They don't need Stark children there, they have an undead Tully and their living Tully lord. Jon Snow has nothing to offer them.

Precisely.  They might have an interest in a pureblood Stark kid if the kid was half Tully, but Jon Snow has nothing to do with the Riverlands, in blood or interest.  

I'm really not sure what the Riverlands want, to be honest, beyond freeing Edmure and revenge for the Red Wedding.  Of all the pieces on the board right now the only one I can think of that might really interest them is the Ironborn invasion of the Reach, as a strong and aggressive Iron Islands poses a massive danger to them.  That actually suggests a military alliance with the Reach, and by extension submission to the Iron Throne, would be in the best interests of the region. 

[Scorpion92]

Riverlands is a very separate subject because besides Stark loyalty among river lords we have Brotherhood without Banners component, Lannister occupation of the region, and soon to be fought second dance of the dragons between Aegon and Daenerys, and I feel Riverlands will not sit this one out and be involved in some way or fashion because several officers of Golden Company would like to be rewarded for their service (Tristan Rivers who is a suspected Darry bastard, Mudds, and other exiles from Riverlands who would like some piece of pie back at their homeland). So it is kinda premature to predict whether river lords will support Jon if he becomes King in the North. 

Now, I have mentioned this in several threads, but did you guys notice how women are becoming heads of northern houses? Besides Lady Dustin, we have Lady Berena Tallhart and Lady Jonelle Cerwyn, not to mention Deepwood Motte is ruled by Sybelle Glover and Bear Island by little Lyanna Mormont. Alys Karstark was already involved in the whole Karhold succession crisis. If something happens to Howland Reed in the upcoming book (unlikely, but still a possibility), then Meera is his heir since Jojen is most likely dead.

Why I think this is important? I think that eventually Jon Snow will come to power in Winterfell, and he will not repeat the mistakes he did as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. He will surround himself with people he trusts, not sending them away to do his will which eventually got him killed. I believe that wildlings will play a huge role in his ascension as King in the North (it will be a bloody path for him, especially if majority of northern houses support Rickon as their Lord of Winterfell), and he will reward his closest wildling chiefs with betrothals to northern ladies, and therefore lands and castles closest to Winterfell. He already did it with Alys Karstark and Sigorn Thenn.

What do you guys think?

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, estermonty python said:

There's really no incentive for anyone in the Riverlands to support a northern overlord with no ties to their own lands.  On the other hand, deposing the Freys and throwing off the yoke of the IT could be reason enough for some.

But he's a half-Targ, and some of the RL houses are Targ loyalists. The rest of your points are the same points I'd make in that regard. I don't think BF will be going to the Vale though. George imo already has 3 rescuers in place, pretending to be mercenary sellswords imo. And if anyone's bound to help Sansa in the Vale that would be Sandor, the Hound. Heck, he might be there already, glamored as Byron (and one of Byron's poems is epitaph to a dog, for his pet dog that died from rabies).

Regardless what you believe their motives or identities to be, they're clearly there as plot device to extract Sansa from the Vale. Personally, I think BF intends to go out with a bang, liberating Edmure and Jeyne Westerling in the pass of the Golden Tooth, where he can rain stones on the column of Lannister soldiers and separate them into manageable portions to fight. The rebel Gaul Ambiorix once slaughtered a whole Roman legion that way (that's many more soldiers than Jaime sent with Edmure), and it made the Senate so angry that Caesar had to return and slaughter the whole tribe (though Ambiorix got away and crossed the Rhine).

1 hour ago, estermonty python said:

There is a Lannister army in the Riverlands.  Even if every house in the Riverlands had a secret direwolf pup in their kennels, they can't do a damn thing while they are under Lannister occupation.  The fact that Jaime sent a host south does weaken his forces a bit and could be prime for a Riverlands revolt, however.

And that Lannister army is split up all over the Riverlands and now pretty much leaderless, except for Daven who's to wed a Frey. Weddings to Freys tend to go bloody these days. And Marbrand is searching in wolf and BwB country on a red stallion (they tend to end up riderless).

Meanwhile KL is soon in need of the remaining Lannister army, with revolt brewing in Rosby and Stokeworth, Aegon on the March, Aurane Waters having skipped town and Lannister soldiers that went to Dragonstone most likely on the ships of Redwyne on the way to the Arbor and Oldtown to confront Euron.

 

[estermonty python]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

But he's a half-Targ, and some of the RL houses are Targ loyalists.

In addition to the fact that no one knows this, including Jon, none of the houses in the Riverlands were Targ loyalists during Robert's Rebellion.  Even if they were, they'd be far more likely to join Faegon's cause first, long before anyone learns of Jon's parentage.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

if anyone's bound to help Sansa in the Vale that would be Sandor, the Hound.

You are probably right about this.  

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

Personally, I think BF intends to go out with a bang, liberating Edmure and Jeyne Westerling in the pass of the Golden Tooth, where he can rain stones on the column of Lannister soldiers and separate them into manageable portions to fight.

That's as good a guess as any - and more plausible than most.  He does seem like he was born to be an outlaw.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

And that Lannister army is split up all over the Riverlands and now pretty much leaderless

I assume you mean now that Jaime has gone off with Brienne?

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

except for Daven who's to wed a Frey. Weddings to Freys tend to go bloody these days. And Marbrand is searching in wolf and BwB country on a red stallion (they tend to end up riderless).

Details like this are why I love this series - he's set up these pieces so meticulously.  I completely agree that the stage has been set for a rebellion against the Lannister forces in the Riverlands.  Jaime has 3 capable lieutenants: Daven Lannister, Addam Marbrand, and Lyle Crakehall.  All 3 have been separated from one another.  Daven is on his way to Red Wedding 2.0; Marbrand, as you say, is in the same area as Nymeria's pack, and Lyle Crakehall is on his way back to the massive clusterfuck that is Darry, which is both besieged by outlaws and probably being controlled by the Sparrows.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

Meanwhile KL is soon in need of the remaining Lannister army

Just becayse KL needs the Lannister army doesn't mean that KL will get the Lannister army.  Who'se going to lead them - Ilyn Payne?

[sweetsunray]

26 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

none of the houses in the Riverlands were Targ loyalists during Robert's Rebellion

House Darry and House Whent and House Mooton. KG Oswell Whent helped to set up the tourney of HH, and guarded at the ToJ and was missing from KL since the time Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna. House Darry was still a Targ loyalist at the start of aGoT, because Tyrion found Targ tapestries hidden away when Robert and the whole of the King's party stayed there on their way to the North. And of course one of the men of Darry, Willem Darry, smuggled Viserys and Danaerys out of Dragonstone to Braavos, to a house with a red door, where a pact was made for Arianne Martell to marry Viserys Targaryen. His brother was KG and died at the Battle of the Trident fighting the rebels alongside Rhaegar, Selmy and Martell. House Mooton is the House of Maidenpool, and Myles Mooton was one of Rhaegaer's best friends. He fought for the Targs at Stoney Sept under the command of Jon Connington and was killed by Robert Baratheon himself in the Battle of the Bells. Those are Riverlands houses.

Anyway, I didn't necessarily claim the Targ loyalists would rally behind Jon for that reason without it being known first. Of course they don't know now, but at some point I expect it to become public knowledge, and that might suit the remaining survivors of those houses fine. Jon is basically part the reason their kinsmen died for. And fAegon I doubt will be endgame.

 

26 minutes ago, estermonty python said:

Just becayse KL needs the Lannister army doesn't mean that KL will get the Lannister army.  Who'se going to lead them - Ilyn Payne?

Well, at least she'll try to recall the remainder at some point no? Especially when Tyrells abandon the sinking ship?  I didn't say they necessarily get there alive.

[estermonty python]

3 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

House Darry and House Whent and House Mooton. KG Oswell Whent helped to set up the tourney of HH, and guarded at the ToJ and was missing from KL since the time Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna. House Darry was still a Targ loyalist at the start of aGoT, because Tyrion found Targ tapestries hidden away when Robert and the whole of the King's party stayed there on their way to the North. And of course one of the men of Darry smuggled Viserys and Danaerys out of Dragonstone to Braavos where a pact was made for Arianne Martell to marry Viserys Targaryen. House Mooton is the House of Maidenpool, and Myles Mooton was one of Rhaegaer's best friends. He fought for the Targs at Stoney Sept under the command of Jon Connington and was killed by Robert Baratheon himself in the Battle of the Bells. Those are Riverlands houses.

You are totally right about House Mooton.  They are definitely Targ loyalists.  But House Darry is extinguished in the male line and there are more armed sparrows than anyone in that castle now, aren't there?  House Whent is presumably extinguished as well, if the rumors are to be believed - either that or badass grandma Whent is coming to kick some ass and take some names, because she's all that's left!  At any rate, we don't really know what side House Whent was on.  Oswell was obviously duty bound to protect Rhaegar, but Hoster's wife was a Whent, so it's not a sure thing that they would have broken with their liege lord like that.  At the very least Lord Whent was on Team Rhaegar over Team Aerys as of the Harrenhal tourney.  

11 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Well, at least she'll try to recall the remainder at some point no? Especially when Tyrells abandon the sinking ship?  I didn't say they necessarily get there alive.

Ah, so you are assuming Cersei will WIN her trial by combat?

By the way I forgot one: Forley Prester is also an excellent, capable dude.  Unfortunately for the Westerman, he's leading that retinue with Edmure and Jeyne that may or may not get rocks dumped on it by the Blackfish.   

[Nittanian]

The Goodbrooks and Rygers also supported the Targaryens during RR.

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, estermonty python said:

Ah, so you are assuming Cersei will WIN her trial by combat?

I see foreshadowing of her fleeing KL and make for the Rock, even one of her children surviving that far along, and even try to rally Westermen for another bid. But then Tyrion arrives with Dothraki barbarians at its walls. Her trusting child opens the gate, and all will end in miserable fate.

Yes, I think she will survive her trial.

1 hour ago, estermonty python said:

You are totally right about House Mooton.  They are definitely Targ loyalists.  But House Darry is extinguished in the male line and there are more armed sparrows than anyone in that castle now, aren't there?  House Whent is presumably extinguished as well, if the rumors are to be believed - either that or badass grandma Whent is coming to kick some ass and take some names, because she's all that's left!  At any rate, we don't really know what side House Whent was on.  Oswell was obviously duty bound to protect Rhaegar, but Hoster's wife was a Whent, so it's not a sure thing that they would have broken with their liege lord like that.  At the very least Lord Whent was on Team Rhaegar over Team Aerys as of the Harrenhal tourney.  

Honestly, I think most of those armed sparows are BwB in disguise. There is the female Darry line. No doubt they'll find a suitable husband fine.

@bemused convinced me that Shella Whent is the old woman in the horse litter and with personal guard traveling from Duskendale to Rosby, in favor of the ward of Rosby, which most suspect is Olyvar Frey (a Stark loyal Frey, brother to Roslin). And I think she sheltered for a while with the Mootons, leaving before Tarly arrived. She went underground and helped to spread the lie of her death, in order to be left alone. Brienne approaches the woman and asks her famous question about the pretty sister with blue eyes and auburn hair. What is absolutely suspect is that there is no mention of any sigil. So it seems this old woman travels in style but does not want anyone to recognize her by her sigil, and we do know that bats are met with scorn, even if When'ts bat is not Lthstone's. So, yup, I think Shella Whent is going to kick some royal butt in the Crownlands.

We have no definite citing yet about other members of House Whent fighting during RR, but we do know many are dead. I wouldn't put it past them to have had some other part in Lyanna's abduction. George is keeping too silent about House Whent.

1 hour ago, Nittanian said:

The Goodbrooks and Rygers also supported the Targaryens during RR.

True.

PS: if I had a tendency to rhyme, it's simply the reading of it rubbing off on me temporarily

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Lord Vance II said:

He offers an alternative to the Frey/Lannister clusterfuck they've been dealing with since the Red Wedding. They lost plenty of men at the wedding too and I don't think it would take much for many of the major river lords to rise. BUT, I don't see any Northern army coming south so it probably won't really come up. Maybe they would heed the call fight the battle against the others, but that's about it. 

The Tullys have no reason to turn to a Stark if they want to raise a king. Edmure is Robb's uncle and whatever claim Robb had to the Riverlands went through Catelyn. I don't think they will proclaim another king but if they intended to do it Edmure would be in a much better position than Jon Snow or Cat's children.

With Aegon's arrival it is pretty obvious to whom the Riverlords would turn if they need support dealing with the Lannisters and Freys. Aegon has the Golden Company, and soon he will have Dorne and perhaps even portions of the Reach. Not to mention the Crownland houses who are traditionally loyal to the Targaryens.

6 hours ago, estermonty python said:

Precisely.  They might have an interest in a pureblood Stark kid if the kid was half Tully, but Jon Snow has nothing to do with the Riverlands, in blood or interest.  

Indeed. We know what Brynden Tully thinks of Jon Snow, and unless one assumes the man is just pretending to dislike him (just as Barbrey Dustin just pretends to dislike the Starks) it is pretty obvious that nobody in the Riverlands is going to turn to Jon as their new king.

Even less so with Catelyn Tully in charge of the Brotherhood and possibly of Riverrun soon enough. She never liked Jon and that most likely didn't change while she was dead.

6 hours ago, estermonty python said:

I'm really not sure what the Riverlands want, to be honest, beyond freeing Edmure and revenge for the Red Wedding.  Of all the pieces on the board right now the only one I can think of that might really interest them is the Ironborn invasion of the Reach, as a strong and aggressive Iron Islands poses a massive danger to them.  That actually suggests a military alliance with the Reach, and by extension submission to the Iron Throne, would be in the best interests of the region. 

Declaring for Aegon would be the wisest choice. The Lannisters are his enemies, too, and unlike the North Aegon brings 10,000 professional soldiers and (pretty soon) 20,000 Dornish spears. That way they could not only hope to end the Lannister occupation but also carry the war to them if they intend to do this.

And yeah, they should grew concerned over the Euron problem as well. They once were under the thumb of the Ironborn, after all. Dealing with that should be easier with a Targaryen.

[Davjos]

I have to say I love the direction this thread has taken. I was a little nervous at first creating something without adding anything substantial in the form of theories etc. 

I have been pondering on this question the entire day. Do we see a confrontation/war coming in the anti-Bolton camp? Could you see Stannis warring with Rickon? Or Jon and Rickon fighting each other for te King of the North? I feel the Others are such a tangible threat at this point I think they might force the North to rally together before actually being allies. But you never really know what could happen. Rickon could die on Skagos, not even be there or be long Lord of Winterfel, declaring for Stannis with Wyman as his regent, all before Jon is even resurrected or in any position to March south. Stannis could fall in the Battle of Winterfel

So basically the two points I would like to discuss next:
- Will the anti-Bolton faction fight among themselves: I don't really see Stannis vs. Jon happen, Rickon vs. Jon also seems unlikely. 
- Wil Winterfel be under Bolton rule when Jon marches south, or already taken by Stannis/Manderly etc.With all the plays going on I don't really see Roose Bolton holding on to Winterfell for another two months or something, while Jon will likely take something like that to get there if his resurrection takes some time. He might need to face Boltons at the Dreadfort, though. 

thanks @sweetsunray @Lord Vance II @Lord Varys and everybody for the responses!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Drunkard]

18 minutes ago, Ethelarion said:

So basically the two points I would like to discuss next:
- Will the anti-Bolton faction fight among themselves: I don't really see Stannis vs. Jon happen, Rickon vs. Jon also seems unlikely. 
- Wil Winterfel be under Bolton rule when Jon marches south, or already taken by Stannis/Manderly etc.With all the plays going on I don't really see Roose Bolton holding on to Winterfell for another two months or something, while Jon will likely take something like that to get there if his resurrection takes some time. He might need to face Boltons at the Dreadfort, though. 

For your first point, I don't think it seems likely either. Just in terms of how those characters relate to each other, Jon wouldn't fight ever fight his family in order to steal Winterfell, and Stannis and Jon have a good relationship and, for the most part, are too aligned in their goals (i.e. depose Boltons, restore Starks, defend the Wall).

For your second, I think that will all be resolved without Jon. Stannis' army lost plenty of men (and nearly a thousand horses) marching toward Winterfell. If they're defeated in battle and routed from their camp (and their supplies) there's no way they're surviving that intact, and I doubt there's enough men or willpower remaining in that scenario for Jon to do a second recruitment drive and then a second march, nevermind how redundant that would be in terms of narrative. 

As to a war within the anti-Bolton camp, I don't think there'll be any appetite for one. The northern lords seem to want some combination of security for themselves, the Boltons deposed and the Starks restored/avenged, and Stannis offers all of that. If he wins at Winterfell he'll be the guy who saved the Wall from the wildlings, liberated Deepwood Motte from the ironborn, united a force capable of overthrowing the Boltons, and then marched outnumbered into a blizzard against Winterfell and somehow came out on top. If Davos returns with Rickon that's just icing on the cake.

[sweetsunray]

43 minutes ago, Ethelarion said:

- Will the anti-Bolton faction fight among themselves: I don't really see Stannis vs. Jon happen, Rickon vs. Jon also seems unlikely.

Agreed on those main ones. Stannis shows in aDwD more and more that he's a pragmatist than a fanatic, and rows with the paddles he's been given. This becomes especially evident in the released tWoW chapter of Theon 1. 

Spoiler

He deals with the Iron Bank, he deals with maester Tybald who sent the map to Roose, he deals with the treasonous Karstarks and keeps their men-at-arms basically separated and in the dark about what's going on, he deals with Massey sending him on a mission to the Wall and Braavos, he deals with Asha, decides who to send to the Wall, and in the meantime he also interrogates Theon about Winterfell, Mors Umber, the Freys. And he concludes Roose made a mistake by sending the Freys and Manderlys out to take him on at the Ice Lakes.

It's a hell of a chapter where you see a man sift through information quickly, make decisions, in a no BS manner in a manner we haven't yet had the priviledge to witness before. And he's actually cunning.

So, I don't see Stannis making decisions that rock the boat, unless he has a knife held against his throat, and even then only some. Besides, he wants Jon and make him a Stark in name. I don't think he'll be the one who'll have the honor to do that. He'll be happy with Rickon Stark, although it means he'll need to pick a regent.

Jon would never usurp his brothers' rights. Even if Robb's will were to come out while Rickon is found and at WF, I don't see Jon doing that. However, I can see Umbers, Manderly and others butt heads over the regency, in a manner similar as we saw them compete with Luwin and Bran over who woudl be heir of Hornwood and who might make her a good husband.

I do think Rickon will be retrieved, that he will be returned to WF and that after Stannis took it (think of the direwolves scene threatening a Lannister into "retreat"). And I'm not so sure they'd ought to be eager to be his regent: he's a fierce, wilfull kid that managed to survive with just one wildling woman and a wolf for the past two years. I don't think giving him a stamp to press on papers or sweetened milk would keep that kid entertained. He'll stay in play long enough for the to Twins fall (think the Lord of the Crossing game in the godswood) and the news of his survival and presence at WF having reached far enough to onset attempts from the other Starks to return to WF and rally around him (the direwolf scene again where it's Rickon who opens the door to the hall and brings 3 wolves into the hall, with the sun shining, and Rickon running with the wolves happy as a baby). But then something happens to him. It doesn't even have to be murder, assassination. He might get sick or he falls. Rickon is the Stark plot character to return wolves and Starks back to WF. But after that I think he'll have no more plot-use other than making room. So, in that sense there will never even be a Jon vs Rickon imo. 

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- He might need to face Boltons at the Dreadfort, though. 

Actually I think Roose Bolton will lose the Dreadfort. The news of it being taken by wildlings/ironborn will make him rush towards the Dreafort to capture it back, meanwhile believing Stannis dead. So, he leaves WF with a minimal garrison, a force that can be easily overtaken through a ruse and someone inside openeing a door, followed by a pursuit by Stannis to crush Roose between the walls of the Dreadfort and Stannis's army. I think he'll use the plan that the Boltons hoped to use against him. They had the Karstarks propose to Stannis to take the Dreadfort, in the hope that Stannis woudl be crushed between the castle's wall and Roose's army coming from behind him at which point the Karstarks would turn on Stannis. I think we'll see that happening to Roose instead. 

[Scorpion92]

2 hours ago, Ethelarion said:

I have to say I love the direction this thread has taken. I was a little nervous at first creating something without adding anything substantial in the form of theories etc. 

I have been pondering on this question the entire day. Do we see a confrontation/war coming in the anti-Bolton camp? Could you see Stannis warring with Rickon? Or Jon and Rickon fighting each other for te King of the North? I feel the Others are such a tangible threat at this point I think they might force the North to rally together before actually being allies. But you never really know what could happen. Rickon could die on Skagos, not even be there or be long Lord of Winterfel, declaring for Stannis with Wyman as his regent, all before Jon is even resurrected or in any position to March south. Stannis could fall in the Battle of Winterfel

So basically the two points I would like to discuss next:
- Will the anti-Bolton faction fight among themselves: I don't really see Stannis vs. Jon happen, Rickon vs. Jon also seems unlikely. 
- Wil Winterfel be under Bolton rule when Jon marches south, or already taken by Stannis/Manderly etc.With all the plays going on I don't really see Roose Bolton holding on to Winterfell for another two months or something, while Jon will likely take something like that to get there if his resurrection takes some time. He might need to face Boltons at the Dreadfort, though. 

thanks @sweetsunray @Lord Vance II @Lord Varys and everybody for the responses!

 

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Here is what I believe will happen:

I think there is bound to happen some fight for Winterfell. Stannis will be victorious in defeating Boltons and taking Dreadfort, and Rickon will be retrieved and delivered into Lord Manderly's care. In return, Manderly and group of northern nobles that plotted Bolton downfall will provide army, fleet and finances for king to take Dragonstone and plan second siege of King's Landing. Stannis needs Iron Throne to defend the realm from White Walkers. Otherwise no one will listen to him.

Resurrected Jon will be much determined and ruthless character. He will realize that remaining as Lord Commander of Night's Watch is not enough to be "the shield that guards the realms of men". He needs Winterfell in order to command northerners to man nineteen castles at the Wall.

Lord Manderly, acting regent of the North and practically the ruler, will not agree to give up the power and hand to Stark bastard, who claims to be resurrected and forfeited the sacred by northmen vows of Night's Watch and who leads an army of hated wildlings down south to usurp his brother Rickon's place as Lord of Winterfell. Rickon will not want to fight his brother, but he will have no voice in this due to his age. Manderly is his regent and appointed by King Stannis.

So I definitely see a conflict rising between Manderly, Umber uncles, Lady Dustin, etc. and Jon Snow for the right to control regency over Rickon.

And I agree with @sweetsunray - Rickon is a character that will make remaining Stark children to go back home and reunite. Jon and wildlings; Sansa, Bronze Yohn Royce and Knights of the Vale (not sure if Littlefinger will be alive by that time); Arya from Braavos; and Bran and his crew from Beyond the Wall.