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Ser Snowflake

Tywin's reaction to The Purple Wedding

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On 7/1/2017 at 1:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

It is quite clear that Tywin thought his dwarf son killed his royal grandson. That's why he condemned him to death. If Tywin had had doubts he would have offered Tyrion a way out much sooner, either by rigging a trial-by-combat in his favor (say, by forbidding Gregor Clegane to champion the cause of the Crown) or by early offering him a deal to pardon him or send him to the Wall.

He did neither. He never even visited Tyrion in his cell. And Kevan also believes Tyrion is guilty. That much is plain in the book.

He did it. IIRC, he sent Kevan with the offer of sending him to the Wall.

As I've been recalled, this is about how Tywin felt about Joff's death. Never forget those are the feelings of a character in a book, so no one can be expected to be completely accurate. Let's hope GRRM depicted it all properly. Of course, Tywin being involved would change everything. Well, going to the matter, let's see what happened, under what circumstances, whit what outcome, and then try to develop a coherent explanation.

The facts are, Joff was murdered in his wedding, in the presence of everybody that counts. Tywin witnesses his death with a strange calm, even for a person like him. Cersei, by contrast, reacted as hysterically as it'd be expected, and immediately accused Tyrion.

The circumstances. Tywin was the Hand of the King and the king had been murdered at his sight. His daughter charged his son for the murder. He depended on the Tyrells to sustain the the realm. In fact, LF had bartered a deal among Tyrells and Lannisters that involved Joff marrying Margaery, even though the former were most reluctant on his future behaviour. He searched an alliance with the Dornish with whom he had a blood debt.

The aftermath. Cersei presented the case against Tyrion very convincingly. Tywin seems involved in the making of false evidences through Shae. Tywin maintained the contact with Tyrion through Kevan. Tyrion called for a trial by combat and lost.

Otoh, it seems rather obvious that AT LEAST the Tyrells and LF had been cooperating in Jof's murder since long ago. In fact, Dontos gave Sansa the hair net with scarce difference of Tywin rewarding LF with all that Tyrion had promised him. The question is, had thay left their parter aside? If so, Why should Tywin do what was needed in the wedding? Moreover, why should he cooperate in making up false evidences against Tyrion? That's not like Tywin, If he was sure that Tyrion did it, he didn't need any false evidence, and if he didn't think it was Tyrion, he should be eager to find out the culprit and take a harsh revenge,... unless he knew who had been, and he was one of them. If he'd thought Tyrion was guilty, I wonder if he'd been too willing to spare his life.

On the contrary, Kevan not been aware, or Tywin not visiting Tyrion to feign neutrality, is no more that it should be expected from him.

My take is that the Tyrells had agreed a deal, provided Joff lived up to it. In fact, Tywin showed an interest in straighten up Joff that it's doubtful he had with his own children, until he had to give up. And take into account that Tyrell's army is the strongest ant it's over there, breaking the deal is not an option.

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22 minutes ago, finger said:

Otoh, it seems rather obvious that AT LEAST the Tyrells and LF had been cooperating in Jof's murder since long ago. In fact, Dontos gave Sansa the hair net with scarce difference of Tywin rewarding LF with all that Tyrion had promised him. The question is, had thay left their parter aside? If so, Why should Tywin do what was needed in the wedding? Moreover, why should he cooperate in making up false evidences against Tyrion? That's not like Tywin, If he was sure that Tyrion did it, he didn't need any false evidence, and if he didn't think it was Tyrion, he should be eager to find out the culprit and take a harsh revenge,... unless he knew who had been, and he was one of them. If he'd thought Tyrion was guilty, I wonder if he'd been too willing to spare his life.

On the contrary, Kevan not been aware, or Tywin not visiting Tyrion to feign neutrality, is no more that it should be expected from him.

My take is that the Tyrells had agreed a deal, provided Joff lived up to it. In fact, Tywin showed an interest in straighten up Joff that it's doubtful he had with his own children, until he had to give up. And take into account that Tyrell's army is the strongest ant it's over there, breaking the deal is not an option.

Tywin had nothing to do with the Purple Wedding.  He has nothing to gain and everything to lose by that.  The blow to House Lannister's prestige was immense, and if you bought this theory, you'd have to believe he was willing to trade away the extremely valuable Sansa to Petyr Baelish for no reason.  Littlefinger is one of his servants (as far as Tywin sees it), he's certainly not in a position to demand that sort of payment).

If he wanted Joffrey dead, there were innumerable ways to go about that much more quietly.  And when you consider that Tywin kept Tyrion alive despite hating him (and the fact that it would have been easy to kill in infant; babies die all the time in Westeros even when their parents want them to live), he's shown no inclination toward kinslaying, even when it's something he wants to do.

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On ‎1‎/‎6‎/‎2017 at 11:23 PM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Indeed. I would just add that the World Book is explicitly written to be from a particular perspective, which makes it unreliable; and that one reason Tywin might not confess to Tyrion that he wanted Elia Martell and her children brutally, horrifically murdered, is that he doesn't want to admit that he's a monster. Like I said, realpolitik is his image, an image he seeks to keep up in front of absolutely everyone. I bet he never even explicitly gives fucked up orders to Gregor Clegane - but he knows full well what those men will do regardless.

Eh, I'm not so sure. He's already all-but-admitted to Tyrion that he ordered the killing of the children, which makes him a monster in just about anyone's eyes, so why would he make up the story about not mentioning Elia? And since Gregor is barely 17 at the time of the sack, and this is his first taste of combat as far as we know, it is very plausible that Tywin did not know what a beast he was.

But even if he did know what Lorch and Clegane were capable of, I still don't see Tywin's motivation as simple revenge (against Aerys, I guess?). It would serve the purpose of convincing everyone, and Robert in particular, that Tywin had forever severed his ties to the Targaryens.

So I'm sure he takes great satisfaction in destroying his enemies, which can be described as revenge, but I think there is a distinction between him and rulers like Cersei and the Martells in that his higher motivation is to further the interests of his house, not simply achieve payback for past wrongs.

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4 hours ago, Colonel Green said:

Tywin had nothing to do with the Purple Wedding.  He has nothing to gain and everything to lose by that.  The blow to House Lannister's prestige was immense, and if you bought this theory, you'd have to believe he was willing to trade away the extremely valuable Sansa to Petyr Baelish for no reason.  Littlefinger is one of his servants (as far as Tywin sees it), he's certainly not in a position to demand that sort of payment).

If he wanted Joffrey dead, there were innumerable ways to go about that much more quietly.  And when you consider that Tywin kept Tyrion alive despite hating him (and the fact that it would have been easy to kill in infant; babies die all the time in Westeros even when their parents want them to live), he's shown no inclination toward kinslaying, even when it's something he wants to do.

:agree:This.

Let's also not overlook the fact that with Joffrey gone, Tywin's hold on the Iron Throne depends on the life of his last living grandson. If Tommen dies, guess who is on deck? Stannis, unless he wants to pull a Dornish end-run using Marcella, which would certainly drive the Tyrells out of the alliance.

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5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Eh, I'm not so sure. He's already all-but-admitted to Tyrion that he ordered the killing of the children, which makes him a monster in just about anyone's eyes, so why would he make up the story about not mentioning Elia?

Because having the children killed can be justified politically; what happened to Elia raped cannot be.

I take the murder of Elia and her children as revenge against Aerys, Rhaegar and the Martells. As well as having political benefits.

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@Colonel Green @John Suburbs At least you seem to recognize there was something going between Tywin and the Tyrells, and LF was the barterer of the deal. A deal means not Tywin's will, but an agreement, so we'll see how it could have gone.

The Tyrells had shown most clearly that they wanted Margaery to be the queen. Yet, they mistrusted Joff's brutality, as they showed when asking Sansa on the matter.

Tywin's stand is unsustainable. He'd been defeated by Robb in the Riverlands, and then the Westlands were under attack. Jaime is a prisoner. Stannis is about to take KL. He deadly needs the Tyrells' army, that btw seem to be the strongest. In short, he's bound to concede anything it's asked from him. That or death.

LF played a great part in the alignment of both parties' interests, and he's lavishly rewarded. (Most curiously, he perceived point by point what Tyrion had offered him. Maybe the Lannisters always pay their debts, so Tywin paid Tyrion's, but it might deserve a thought, or even another thread.) Kevan was never involved.

Now, this is a novel, and the author concious and repeatedly decides to leave details untold. Sometimes he hints at something and we readers must deduce what it is, that's how this game is played. I'll offer my interpretation of this facts, and obviously you're free to dissent.

The deal is between Lannisters and the Tyrells, but the middleman was LF, and he's sure to have bent the pitch in his own favour. I'd say he left Sansa out of the deal on purpose, so that both parties would pursue her, to keep them busy. (This is an interesting topic, but I don't think it has much to do with Joff's murder.) Somehow, the Tyrells knew about Joff's ways, and I guess LF didn't take much effort to sweeten it. Joff was a hinder to everybody. Tywin meant to rule as the Hand, and the Tyrells through Margaery's influence on the king. Joff spoiled it all, but Tommen allowed it, at least for a good while. Remember, Lannisters can have a feeble IT, but it's the Tyrells who hold the trump card. I guess the latter, probably encouraged by LF, brought forth the substitution of Joff by Tommen since the very beginning, as an eventuality if he didn't change for the better. Overwhelmed by the facts, Tywin had to concede.

Two little side questions. LF expected this murder would have serious consequences in the future, and he put himself out of reach. But he'd surely think it'd end in quarrel between Lannisters and Tyrells, not in Lannister's self destruction. He always thrive in chaos. And, should Tommen have dead, Tywin could accomplish his secret dream, putting his father on the IT. All Jaime had to do was resign the white cloak and marry Margaery. Nobody would dare object. Jaime might not agree, but Tywin did want.

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20 hours ago, finger said:

He did it. IIRC, he sent Kevan with the offer of sending him to the Wall.

Sure, but that was early on during the trial, and since it was Kevan doing it neither we nor Tyrion can be sure how honest it was.

The way Tywin later treated Tyrion during the trial - the threats to gag him and him actually allowing Shae to be marched out there - can be seen as a strong sign that Tywin was pretty convinced that Tyrion was guilty. He may have just used Kevan to get Tyrion to confess so that the last shadow of his guilt was removed.

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The facts are, Joff was murdered in his wedding, in the presence of everybody that counts. Tywin witnesses his death with a strange calm, even for a person like him. Cersei, by contrast, reacted as hysterically as it'd be expected, and immediately accused Tyrion.

Tywin never loses his calm in public (and even in private, he doesn't really explode or show all that much emotion when Jaime refuses to leave the Kingsguard), and Tyrion actually doesn't focus on Tywin's expression and reaction in the moment of Joff's death. Tywin being 'impeccably correct' etc. is earlier on during the wedding, not when Joff dies.

Tywin has no reason to murder Joffrey, nor is there any hint that Tywin thinks Joffrey is that much of a problem. He has concerns about his personality but he doesn't have as much experience with the boy as Tyrion. Murdering your own nephew who also happens to be the king is a vile crime. And it would (and was) a severe blow to the Lannister cause. How ridiculous and weak do the Lannister now with Tywin's son being accused of murdering Tywin's grandson and then the very same son actually murdering Tywin himself?

Who would want to associate with such people in real life?

On 9.1.2017 at 7:08 PM, Seams said:

I know there is a recurrent drumbeat in the forum that Tyrion really ISN'T Tywin's son. Maybe we have to examine Tywin's actions in that light.

That has little to do with that. Tyrion was officially Tywin's son, and while Tywin's feelings for Tyrion certainly would have influenced his judgment and beliefs about Tyrion, it is still a major blow to House Lannister for Tywin to even allow a trial against his son.

You don't show or project strength by revealing to the world that your family like/are capable of killing each other.

If Tywin hadn't believed that Tyrion was (most likely) guilty he would have done anything in his power get him off the hook, insisting the whole thing was just an accident. Like the Tyrells originally tried to play it, with Alerie and Olenna giving the cues. Tywin was in charge of the Realm, and he would have been able to control both Cersei and Pycelle if he had wanted to. But he didn't. And that's a statement in itself.

On 9.1.2017 at 7:08 PM, Seams said:

One theory of Tyrion's paternity is that Prince Lewyn Martell, who was a member of the King's Guard, might have been Johanna Lannister's paramour. So Oberyn would be stepping in to protect his cousin by defending Tyrion.

Well, I never read that before. I'm pretty sure Tyrion's biological father is Aerys II, because we have more than good reason to believe that he may have had the hots for her, and he had the opportunity to father Tyrion in 272 AC during the anniversary tourney. There is no reason whatsoever to believe Joanna had the hots for Lewyn Martell. Especially since we don't even know whether the man was a Kingsguard or at court in 272-3 AC.

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12 hours ago, finger said:

@Colonel Green @John Suburbs At least you seem to recognize there was something going between Tywin and the Tyrells, and LF was the barterer of the deal. A deal means not Tywin's will, but an agreement, so we'll see how it could have gone.

Um, what?  Nobody disputes that Littlefinger brokered a deal between the Lannisters and the Tyrells.  That's public knowledge even in-universe.  It's a totally unsubstantiated leap that this deal involved the murder of the king, with the formal knowledge of the Lannisters.  That was a back channel matter between Littlefinger and the Tyrells.

Tywin didn't even know much about Joffrey at that point.

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15 hours ago, finger said:

@Colonel Green @John Suburbs At least you seem to recognize there was something going between Tywin and the Tyrells, and LF was the barterer of the deal. A deal means not Tywin's will, but an agreement, so we'll see how it could have gone.

Yeah, I'm not sure how you get from LF brokering the alliance between Lannister and Tyrell to all three of them plotting to kill the king.

 

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@Lord Varys @Colonel Green @John Suburbs Of course, all evidences are circumstantial. There's never plainly stated that Tywin knew about Joff's murder, but I think some details point to it.

It's a matter of risk and reward, and attitudes. There are two parties cooperating, and a middleman, and everything seems to go all right, and suddenly the chief hindrance to them happens to disappear. Your explanation, if I've caught it, is that one of the parties, with the help of the middleman, kills the other party's grandson without his knowing. Then, the latter makes up evidences against his own son, instead of looking hard for the real culprit. Excuse me, but I can't buy into it.

The Tyrells don't like Joff marry Margaery, but killing him is too risky to my taste.

LF has no reason at all, rather the opposite, and GRRM makes it clear when Sansa asks him on the matter. His answer is ludicrous.

At the wedding, Tywin summos Joff at the precise moment to allow his poisoning, and in this series nothing is casual. Then Tywin never seems to think Joff is choking with a morsel of something, he seems to know it's venom and, risking to repeat myself, in this series nothing is casual.

Ans then, Shae. It's Cersei who's presenting the witnesses, but she thought Tyrion's whore was Alayaya. Instead, Shae appears afterwards in Tywin's bed. Rereading the scene when Ramsay orders Reek to spy on Roose Bolton, it reminded me Shae. She's not depicted as a common camp follower, and all we know about her is what Bronn tells, a sellsword word. I guess she was sent by Tywin, as Pod Payne was, and she always was his pawn.

You can be more or less convinced by the above written, but please answer this little question: why should Tywin make up evidences against Tyrion? Or, alternatively, try to find a reason for Tywin taking Tyrion's whore, specially after her public show in the trial.

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Reading the chapter. Here's a passage (right after Tyrion's demand for trial by combat) that I find illustrative of Tywin's true feelings:

His sweet sister could not have been more pleased. “He has that right, my lords,” she reminded the judges. “Let the gods judge. Ser Gregor Clegane will stand for Joffrey. He returned to the city the night before last, to put his sword at my service.”

Lord Tywin’s face was so dark that for half a heartbeat Tyrion wondered if he’d drunk some poisoned wine as well. He slammed his fist down on the table, too angry to speak. 

The contrast between Cersei and Tywin's reaction here is telling. Neither knows that Oberyn has signed up to be Tyrion's champion, so from all perspectives this looks to be a suicide move. The fact that Tywin is unable to contain his rage (while he is usually stone-faced), to me, belies his true emotions: He has intended for Tyrion to confess and take up the black, but Tyrion has burnt that bridge.

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35 minutes ago, omegaxx said:

Reading the chapter. Here's a passage (right after Tyrion's demand for trial by combat) that I find illustrative of Tywin's true feelings:

His sweet sister could not have been more pleased. “He has that right, my lords,” she reminded the judges. “Let the gods judge. Ser Gregor Clegane will stand for Joffrey. He returned to the city the night before last, to put his sword at my service.”

Lord Tywin’s face was so dark that for half a heartbeat Tyrion wondered if he’d drunk some poisoned wine as well. He slammed his fist down on the table, too angry to speak. 

The contrast between Cersei and Tywin's reaction here is telling. Neither knows that Oberyn has signed up to be Tyrion's champion, so from all perspectives this looks to be a suicide move. The fact that Tywin is unable to contain his rage (while he is usually stone-faced), to me, belies his true emotions: He has intended for Tyrion to confess and take up the black, but Tyrion has burnt that bridge.

I think that Lord Tywin was simply angry about Tyrion's speech, claiming to have been on trial for being a dwarf his whole life. Keep in mind that Shae had just testified against the imp, and that she was later found in bed with Lord Tywin. 

 

That leads me to conclude that Shae was told by Tywin to lie at the trial. And why would she be told to lie, considering all the "evidence" they had so far? It's not implausible that Tywin knew that his son didn't murder King Joff, and was just looking for an excuse to punish the imp for not consummating his marriage to the wolf maid, for killing Johanna Lannister, and for being a dwarf. He needed that confession to put the matter at rest in front of the whole court.

Tywin knew the imp escaped one trial by combat already, and didn't want him to do it again. Tywin was most likely playing the game of thrones to put the enemies of House Lannister at rest, so that they wouldn't be expecting retribution. He knew Tyrion wasn't stupid enough to get caught that easy. All the "evidence" just screamed set up to me. 

I don't think that he knew exactly who killed Joff, but was in the process of investigating the matter. Sending Tyrion away was something Tywin probably dreamed about for years and couldn't resist. 

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 lol, I hope everyone on this thread appreciates how desperately hard I am trying not to derail this discussion by explaining what really happened at the Purple Wedding.

Suffice it to say, you will all be gobsmacked at how badly you've been blinkered when the truth does come out.

B)

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4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 lol, I hope everyone on this thread appreciates how desperately hard I am trying not to derail this discussion by explaining what really happened at the Purple Wedding.

Suffice it to say, you will all be gobsmacked at how badly you've been blinkered when the truth does come out.

B)

Everybody: please don't ask him what he thinks really happened. Not only is he wrong, but once he gets started he won't ever stop. He's like the fucking Terminator.

Here, if you absolutely must know: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=site%3Awesteros.org+"John+Suburbs"+pie

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On 1/13/2017 at 2:35 PM, finger said:

Then, the latter makes up evidences against his own son

Tywin didn't make up the evidence against Tyrion, as far as we know (that was Cersei, who was just, as far as she knew, making sure he was convicted as she sincerely believed he was guilty).

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The Tyrells don't like Joff marry Margaery, but killing him is too risky to my taste.

LF has no reason at all, rather the opposite, and GRRM makes it clear when Sansa asks him on the matter. His answer is ludicrous.

Littlefinger's motivation is to undermine his enemies.  Assassinating Joffrey does that.  It weakens the regime's image, it drives Cersei further round the bend, it leads to Tyrion's trial and the removal of one of the regime's more competent members, it creates the potentially very useful scenario where the Tyrells have assassinated the king behind the Lannisters' back, and so on.

And if you're saying that neither the Tyrells nor Littlefinger had any reason to kill him, why would Tywin have more reason than them?

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At the wedding, Tywin summos Joff at the precise moment to allow his poisoning, and in this series nothing is casual.

No, Tywin tries to call a halt to Joffrey's degrading, undignified wedding spectacle to bring him to cut the pie.  Then some other stuff happens, he drinks from the chalice, and then dies.

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Then Tywin never seems to think Joff is choking with a morsel of something, he seems to know it's venom and, risking to repeat myself, in this series nothing is casual.

How does he "seem to know it's venom"?  Nobody raises that possibility until Cersei does.

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14 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

Tywin didn't make up the evidence against Tyrion, as far as we know (that was Cersei, who was just, as far as she knew, making sure he was convicted as she sincerely believed he was guilty).

Littlefinger's motivation is to undermine his enemies.  Assassinating Joffrey does that.  It weakens the regime's image, it drives Cersei further round the bend, it leads to Tyrion's trial and the removal of one of the regime's more competent members, it creates the potentially very useful scenario where the Tyrells have assassinated the king behind the Lannisters' back, and so on.

And if you're saying that neither the Tyrells nor Littlefinger had any reason to kill him, why would Tywin have more reason than them?

No, Tywin tries to call a halt to Joffrey's degrading, undignified wedding spectacle to bring him to cut the pie.  Then some other stuff happens, he drinks from the chalice, and then dies.

How does he "seem to know it's venom"?  Nobody raises that possibility until Cersei does.

I suspect Petyr's motivation had a lot more to do with removing Sansa from the Red Keep and into his power. 

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I suspect Petyr's motivation had a lot more to do with removing Sansa from the Red Keep and into his power. 

That was his motivation for extracting Sansa.  He didn't need to murder Joffrey to do that.  He did that because it suited his other goals.

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8 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

That was his motivation for extracting Sansa.  He didn't need to murder Joffrey to do that.  He did that because it suited his other goals.

Indeed, murdering Joffrey makes it harder to extract Sansa, and to hide her.

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6 minutes ago, Colonel Green said:

That was his motivation for extracting Sansa.  He didn't need to murder Joffrey to do that.  He did that because it suited his other goals.

Didn't he say himself that assassinating Joffrey was apparently against his interest, suggesting that he did so only to keep other players guessing? Joffrey as king had served his interests, except for the matter of Sansa. 

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Didn't he say himself that assassinating Joffrey was apparently against his interest, suggesting that he did so only to keep other players guessing? Joffrey as king had served his interests, except for the matter of Sansa. 

Assassinating Joffrey was apparently against his interest if you assume he's a loyal servant of the Crown, which the Lannisters think he is.

Embarrassing the Lannister regime, which he's now starting to work against, is in his interests.

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