How Tyrion Takes Casterly Rock

[Fire Eater]

We all know Thorin Oakenshield Tyrion is going to retake Erebor Casterly Rock. The question is how? Even Visenya admitted they couldn't take Casterly Rock with dragons. 

The precise method by which he accomplished this remains a matter of conjecture. In the most common version of the tale, Lann discovered a secret way inside the Rock, a cleft so narrow that he had to strip off his clothes and coat himself with butter in order to squeeze through. Once inside, however, he began to work his mischief, whispering threats in the ears of sleeping Casterlys, howling from the darkness like a demon, stealing treasures from one brother to plant in the bedchamber of another, rigging sundry snares and deadfalls. By such methods he set the Casterlys at odds with one another and convinced them that the Rock was haunted by some fell creature that would never let them live in peace.
Other tellers prefer other versions of the tale. In one, Lann uses the cleft to fill the Rock with mice, rats, and other vermin, thereby driving out the Casterlys. 

Tyrion will likely emulate his ancestor in using a passage into the Rock. After all, Tyrion possesses his forebear's legendary cunning. 

The Rock even has a port inside it, complete with docks and wharves and shipyards, for the sea has carved great caves into its western face, natural gates deep and wide enough for longships and even cogs to enter and off-load their cargoes.

So to mark his manhood, Tyrion was given charge of all the drains and cisterns within Casterly Rock. Perhaps he hoped I'd fall into one. But Tywin had been disappointed in that. The drains never drained half so well as when he had charge of them.

"I once had charge of all the drains in Casterly Rock," Tyrion said mildly. "Some of them had been stopped up for years, but I soon had them draining merrily away." 

It is mentioned twice that Tyrion had charge of the drains at CR. He would likely use that knowledge to his advantage. The drains likely empty into the sea caves beneath the Rock, which are accessible form the outside. 

He's [Viserion] made himself a cave, the prince realized. A burrow in the brick. The foundations of the Great Pyramid of Meereen were massive and thick to support the weight of the huge structure overhead; even the interior walls were three times thicker than any castle's curtain walls. But Viserion had dug himself a hole in them with flame and claw, a hole big enough to sleep in.

Viserion had demonstrated that the dragons can tunnel through stone. This would serve a crucial element in Tyrion's plan since the drains likely wouldn't be wide enough for a man to crawl through. 

In short, Tyrion would likely go into the sea caves to locate a drain, and then have the dragons dig to widen the drain enough for a few men to climb through. He would then send a small force disguised as Lannister guardsmen (Lannister uniforms shouldn't be hard to find near CR) to make their way to the Lion's Mouth, and open the gates to the rest of the army waiting outside. 

[Scootaloo Stark]

Well done, Fire Eater. Mentioning the drains twice definitely could foreshadow this.

Btw, Storm's End supposedly can't be taken, but they will take it with a trick, sneaking in through the caves by the sea below.

Isn't this how Griff and friends will do it? I always like a nice little parallel.

But I don't think Viserion can dig through Casterly Rock that easily. It's a huge natural rock, not a man-made pyramid.

[Philokles]

The only reservation I have with this theory is that Dany has already taken Meereen by sneaking in via the drains. It would be a little repetitive and underwhelming for the same trick to be used twice in the series.

[Scorpion92]

Also we have the fact that Dany already conquered Mereen using sewers.

The question will be who holds the Rock when Tyrion comes there? Tyrek Lannister, the new puppet Warden of the West of fAegon's regime? 

I think prior this attack on Casterly Rock, there will be naval assault of ironborn on Lannisport fleet (ironborn historically attacked it several times, and I think Theon will lead the attack like he originally wanted in Clash of Kings) while Dothraki horde pillage and plunge the town.

Tyrion destroying his father's seat of power and Dothraki raising Lannisport to the ground is the ultimate "karma is a bitch" to Tywin's legacy and his sack of King's Landing.

[Universal Sword Donor]

I don't think he's going to need to attack CR. I imagine when he's the last remaining member of the senior line, the throne is in flux, and he shows up with 1-3 dragons at his back, they will likely just open the doors.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

According to one of his editors, GRRM uses a three-fold revelation strategy. First a subtle hint. Second, a less subtle hint. Third, the reveal.

  1. Tyrion was in charge of the CR sewers.
+2. Brown Ben and Jorah are ordered to take Meereen by going into the city through the sewers.
  3. Tyrion will take Casterly Rock going in through the sewers, per the set-up GRRM has given us. 

I've been saying this for over a year.
 

[Fire Eater]

1 hour ago, Scootaloo Stark said:

Well done, Fire Eater. Mentioning the drains twice definitely could foreshadow this.

Btw, Storm's End supposedly can't be taken, but they will take it with a trick, sneaking in through the caves by the sea below.

Isn't this how Griff and friends will do it? I always like a nice little parallel.

But I don't think Viserion can dig through Casterly Rock that easily. It's a huge natural rock, not a man-made pyramid.

I think for SE, Connington would attack the unsuspecting Tyrell force besieging SE, and deceive the defenders of SE into thinking that he had come to aid them. Once they open the gates to him and his followers come through, Connington then has his men kill the defenders. 

42 minutes ago, Horse of Kent said:

The only reservation I have with this theory is that Dany has already taken Meereen by sneaking in via the drains. It would be a little repetitive and underwhelming for the same trick to be used twice in the series.

It was through the sewers for Daenerys. Even so, there have been plenty of tricks used twice like Beric and Cat's resurrection, Melisandre using a shadow baby to kill both Renly and Cortnay Penrose, etc. 

33 minutes ago, Scorpion92 said:

Also we have the fact that Dany already conquered Mereen using sewers.

The question will be who holds the Rock when Tyrion comes there? Tyrek Lannister, the new puppet Warden of the West of fAegon's regime? 

I think prior this attack on Casterly Rock, there will be naval assault of ironborn on Lannisport fleet (ironborn historically attacked it several times, and I think Theon will lead the attack like he originally wanted in Clash of Kings) while Dothraki horde pillage and plunge the town.

Tyrion destroying his father's seat of power and Dothraki raising Lannisport to the ground is the ultimate "karma is a bitch" to Tywin's legacy and his sack of King's Landing.

I think CR would be held by Cersei's castellan, Damion Lannister. 

I don't think Tyrion would want to destroy Lannisport or CR since he would be getting it as Lord of CR. No lord wants to recieve a damaged seat. Tywin's karma would be getting killed by his abused son, his two remaining grandchildren being murdered and the regime he set up collapsing. 

[theblackdragonI]

1 hour ago, Scorpion92 said:

I think prior this attack on Casterly Rock, there will be naval assault of ironborn on Lannisport fleet (ironborn historically attacked it several times, and I think Theon will lead the attack like he originally wanted in Clash of Kings) while Dothraki horde pillage and plunge the town.

Tyrion destroying his father's seat of power and Dothraki raising Lannisport to the ground is the ultimate "karma is a bitch" to Tywin's legacy and his sack of King's Landing.

I don't think Theon will ever fight again, he's so frail and maimed physically and mentally. Maybe Euron or Victarion though? It would be a nice call back to the first Greyjoy Rebellion.

I think Tyrion will take it through diplomacy or not at all. He doesn't seem the type to attack his people, especially not to loose a savage horde of horselords on them.

[Scorpion92]

1 hour ago, Fire Eater said:

I think for SE, Connington would attack the unsuspecting Tyrell force besieging SE, and deceive the defenders of SE into thinking that he had come to aid them. Once they open the gates to him and his followers come through, Connington then has his men kill the defenders. 

It was through the sewers for Daenerys. Even so, there have been plenty of tricks used twice like Beric and Cat's resurrection, Melisandre using a shadow baby to kill both Renly and Cortnay Penrose, etc. 

I think CR would be held by Cersei's castellan, Damion Lannister. 

I don't think Tyrion would want to destroy Lannisport or CR since he would be getting it as Lord of CR. No lord wants to recieve a damaged seat. Tywin's karma would be getting killed by his abused son, his two remaining grandchildren being murdered and the regime he set up collapsing. 

Well, if Dany commands the sack of Lannisport, then there is nothing Tyrion can do about it, can't he? Besides, people of Westerlands will never accept him as their liege lord, especially if he supports the claim of Mad King's daughter who conquers her way with  "Fire and Blood" and leads the horde of foreign pillaging and murdering horselords.

There is just certain doom hanging around all major cities of Westeros, and Lannisport is one of them (White Harbor - "Wight Harbor"; Oldtown will probably be destroyed either by Euron or Dany; King's Landing will burn in wildfire). Just my bet, you can say.

I don't think Dany will pass an opportunity to shit on Tywin's legacy, and if Tyrion can still get Casterly Rock after she is done with ancestral place of Lannisters, I think he will take what he can.

Good call about Damion Lannister, forgot about him. I don't think fAegon's regime can ever capture Casterly Rock and install Tyrek there. Too strong of a castle. So good call.

1 hour ago, theblackdragonI said:

I don't think Theon will ever fight again, he's so frail and maimed physically and mentally. Maybe Euron or Victarion though? It would be a nice call back to the first Greyjoy Rebellion.

I think Tyrion will take it through diplomacy or not at all. He doesn't seem the type to attack his people, especially not to loose a savage horde of horselords on them.

I expect Victarion to be long dead by the time Dany arrives in Westeros. And thanks for spoiled chapter Forsaken of Winds, it rules out Euron for me as well. But I might be wrong.

Which leaves Asha and Theon as the only Greyjoys left to attack Lannisport from the sea. Since Theon wanted to do just that for Robb Stark, I believe he will be in charge of this attack. Also, just because he is physically and mentally broken now does not mean he cannot pick up pieces later and retain his identity as Theon Greyjoy in some form or fashion. He will have a long journey to that point though.

 

[Vaedys Targaryen]

Regarding the sewers, remember in The Mystery Knight Bloodraven used dwarves to climb up the privy sewer to get Butterwell's dragon egg. If Tyrion is going to get into Casterly Rock by the drains/sewers, the story will repeat itself.

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

8 hours ago, Fire Eater said:

In short, Tyrion would likely go into the sea caves to locate a drain, and then have the dragons dig to widen the drain enough for a few men to climb through. He would then send a small force disguised as Lannister guardsmen (Lannister uniforms shouldn't be hard to find near CR) to make their way to the Lion's Mouth, and open the gates to the rest of the army waiting outside. 

Sneaking men in through the drains would require the element of surprise, which might be compromised when a huge dragon flies in and starts burrowing into the Rock. I think Tyrion will utilize his small size to go up the drains alone, or possibly with one other person, but that depends on another theory.

[Fire Eater]

On 1/8/2017 at 1:14 AM, Victarion Chainbreaker said:

Sneaking men in through the drains would require the element of surprise, which might be compromised when a huge dragon flies in and starts burrowing into the Rock. I think Tyrion will utilize his small size to go up the drains alone, or possibly with one other person, but that depends on another theory.

How would men inside the Rock be able to see into the sea caves? The garrison in CR wouldn't be expecting an infiltration through the drains. Infiltration of this kind has been done before throughout history many times.

[zandru]

I'm with Universal Sword Donor. Tyrion will "take" the Rock by virtue of being the senior surviving Lannister, and backed by Queen Daenerys, Stormborn, the Unburnt, Lord of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and yada yada.

Tragically, then he'll have to sell it off to pay off Brown Ben and his men, who are still each carrying the parchment IOUs that Tyrion signed to get accepted into their company. Penniless (except for Penny), Tyrion and his little friend will wander Westeros, entertaining the smallfolk for food and lodging and dreaming of his glory days as a Lannister.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

29 minutes ago, zandru said:

I'm with Universal Sword Donor. Tyrion will "take" the Rock by virtue of being the senior surviving Lannister, and backed by Queen Daenerys, Stormborn, the Unburnt, Lord of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and yada yada.

Tragically, then he'll have to sell it off to pay off Brown Ben and his men, who are still each carrying the parchment IOUs that Tyrion signed to get accepted into their company. Penniless (except for Penny), Tyrion and his little friend will wander Westeros, entertaining the smallfolk for food and lodging and dreaming of his glory days as a Lannister.

He probably won't have to sell it. Just give them all nice amounts of gold. In the books the mines are still producing.

[Lord Varys]

I can agree that this would most likely be a way Tyrion could take Casterly Rock if I thought he would do that. Casterly Rock is of no significance to the plot as of yet, and I cannot imagine a boring scenario where taking it would be of any significance to the main characters. 

But if Tyrion took Casterly Rock he would drown in his own blood in the very night he first slept in his lord father's bed. The twisted little monkey demon was convicted of regicide and confessed as much to Jaime, shortly before murdering his own father.

Whatever claim he may have had to Casterly Rock died with Lord Tywin. And if he tries to press he'll suffer the same fate as Dalton Greyjoy.

[rotting sea cow]

20 hours ago, Scootaloo Stark said:

 

Btw, Storm's End supposedly can't be taken, but they will take it with a trick, sneaking in through the caves by the sea below.

Isn't this how Griff and friends will do it? I always like a nice little parallel.

 

There is mention of the similarity of the Golden Company banners and those of House Baratheon in Arianne's tWoW chapters. Having also taken few castles along the Stormlands they can put some Baratheon banners on forward, smash the tiny army still besieging Storm's End and get the castle doors open by leading them to think they are coming to liberate them

[zandru]

Quote

per Lady Blizzard born:

"In the books the mines are still producing. "

As far as we know - but we don't know how much, and we also don't know whether Tywin's remark on the show was a foreshadowing of something George RR told Benioff & Weiss. Casterly Rock has had to foot A LOT of bills lately - first, heavy lending to the Iron Throne (including the Hsnd's Tourney), next financing much the Throne's side of the War of the 5 Kings, and now, Cersei's decided to live large and build herself a fleet (now gone) - IT expenditures, but we all know how the financial acumen of Littlefinger left the Iron Throne in deep, deep debt, not only to Lannisters but to the Iron Bank, Tyrells, etc. etc. Where might Cersei's gold be coming from, if not Good Old Dad's mines? And he isn't around to say no anymore.

Tyrion may inherit an empty shell - and its debts.

[Kaibaman]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Whatever claim he may have had to Casterly Rock died with Lord Tywin. And if he tries to press he'll suffer the same fate as Dalton Greyjoy.

He will have an army, the support of the queen (Dany) and possibly even a dragon of his own. Then again with the setback they will soon face, the Lannisters may just welcome Tyrion back as their lord or will have to reluctantly give him the Rock. As of right now the Lannister barely have an army and once Tommen and Myrcella die they will lose the Iron Throne and their power will melt away. One of the few ways they can survive in the upcoming books is if whichever Targaryen wins (be it Dany, Aegon or Jon) likes Tyrion enough that if he becomes lord of Casterly Rock, their house will be safe.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 1/8/2017 at 0:22 AM, Vaedys Targaryen said:

Regarding the sewers, remember in The Mystery Knight Bloodraven used dwarves to climb up the privy sewer to get Butterwell's dragon egg. If Tyrion is going to get into Casterly Rock by the drains/sewers, the story will repeat itself.

That's a really good addition to the theory. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

13 hours ago, zandru said:

I'm with Universal Sword Donor. Tyrion will "take" the Rock by virtue of being the senior surviving Lannister, and backed by Queen Daenerys, Stormborn, the Unburnt, Lord of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and yada yada.

Tragically, then he'll have to sell it off to pay off Brown Ben and his men, who are still each carrying the parchment IOUs that Tyrion signed to get accepted into their company. Penniless (except for Penny), Tyrion and his little friend will wander Westeros, entertaining the smallfolk for food and lodging and dreaming of his glory days as a Lannister.

Perhaps not. Perhaps he'll betray Daenerys and the Second Sons for all the gold of Casterly Rock?