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An argument supporting Mance wrote the Pink Letter


Aegon VII

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@Aegon VII - I guess first I would ask, is there any evidence the letter was written after theon's escape versus before?

Not really, but perhaps we can reason that as Theon I TWoW happens before Jon XIII ADwD, and it took Theon 3 days to get to Stannis' camp, while a raven would only take a day or two to get to the Wall, then the Raven was sent sometime after Theon's escape.

 

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On 1/10/2017 at 9:41 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

@Aegon VII - I guess first I would ask, is there any evidence the letter was written after theon's escape versus before?

Not really, but perhaps we can reason that as Theon I TWoW happens before Jon XIII ADwD, and it took Theon 3 days to get to Stannis' camp, while a raven would only take a day or two to get to the Wall, then the Raven was sent sometime after Theon's escape.

 

I know they said theons chapter took place before the end of adwd, but are we 100% sure it occured before the Jon chapter? sorry for asking so many clarifying questions, but I truly haven't thought about this much and I would like make sure I have my facts straight before diving into a long response. (plus I wrote a novel over in the big walder thread and am too tired to type anymore tonight)

 

On 1/10/2017 at 4:27 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Cantuse?

Anyway, I agree that while Mance could have hidden in the crypts (quite likely) or even escaped the castle, finding himself in position to write the said letter, it's hard to believe.

How?

Cantuse has a really good analysis of all this on his website and he suggests the mance glamored as ramsay theory there. It's probably one of the biggest differences in his analysis and mine. I definitely view it as possible, but as you've said, it's farfetched and we don't have much to support it. I personally think GRRM just hasn't given us enough info to know, that's why i haven't thought to much about how Mance would have gotten from point a to point b. Something involving the crypts and possible a fight the staircase seems somewhat forshadowed. I'll throw out a possible theory or two in the next couple days. I would like to learn the answer to my follow up question about the timing between the Jon and Theon chapter first though.

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9 hours ago, Aegon VII said:

I know they said theons chapter took place before the end of adwd, but are we 100% sure it occured before the Jon chapter? sorry for asking so many clarifying questions, but I truly haven't thought about this much and I would like make sure I have my facts straight before diving into a long response. (plus I wrote a novel over in the big walder thread and am too tired to type anymore tonight)

GRRM said Theon I TWoW took place before some of the events at the end of ADwD. We know it took place after Asha's last chapter, and there is not really any other chapter at the end of ADwD that it is relevant to. We also know that Theon I, and indeed the Battles of Ice and Fire, were initially meant to be part of ADwD but got bumped because of size. I'm not sure if it has ever been clarified where those bumped chapters would have fit into the original order of chapters. Presumably Jon XIII was always intended to be Jon's last chapter in ADwD, and we can take it that Asha's last chapter was not meant to be the last chapter from the Stannis arc in ADwD, so it is very possible that we would have gotten more from the Stannis camp, such as Theon I TWoW, before we got Jon's final chapter.

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On 1/11/2017 at 3:05 AM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Yes that's possible. But other options are certainly worth considering when a letter supposedly written by a guy who hates the word "bastard" with a passion uses that very word repeatedly. The word seems to be a trigger for Ramsay so in theory he should be less likely to use it himself, even to insult and/or provoke Jon. 

The lack of skin with it is interesting. If he really skinned the spearwives, why didn't he send a token piece of their skin to prove it, like he did when he wrote to people about Theon? 

People often insult others with the words they hate being called them self the most. Ramsay sees the word Bastard as an insult but he has no problem using it about others. He uses it freely about his horse without any hesitation at all in Dance, Reek III

Reek tried to lift the head up by the ear. It was no good. The flesh was green and rotting, and the ear tore off between his fingers. Little Walder laughed, and a moment later all the other men were laughing too. "Oh, leave him be," said Ramsay. "Just see to Blood. I rode the bastard hard." 

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The one thing that is certain is it isnt ramsay. I think it came from camp stannis, written by tybald with his dreadfort pink ink, dictated by stannis with help of theon. but there is good case for mance to

 

 

That there is a long thread where least most people can agree that it just def isnt ramsay

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3 minutes ago, Makk said:

People often insult others with the words they hate being called them self the most. Ramsay sees the word Bastard as an insult but he has no problem using it about others. He uses it freely about his horse without any hesitation at all in Dance, Reek III

Reek tried to lift the head up by the ear. It was no good. The flesh was green and rotting, and the ear tore off between his fingers. Little Walder laughed, and a moment later all the other men were laughing too. "Oh, leave him be," said Ramsay. "Just see to Blood. I rode the bastard hard." 

 

As far as word play. ramsay never uses the word "whore" in the whole series, not once..... Theon has said it more then any other character

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1 hour ago, Makk said:

People often insult others with the words they hate being called them self the most. Ramsay sees the word Bastard as an insult but he has no problem using it about others. He uses it freely about his horse without any hesitation at all in Dance, Reek III

Reek tried to lift the head up by the ear. It was no good. The flesh was green and rotting, and the ear tore off between his fingers. Little Walder laughed, and a moment later all the other men were laughing too. "Oh, leave him be," said Ramsay. "Just see to Blood. I rode the bastard hard." 

The context is important though. It's one thing calling a horse a bastard, when it's just a word. It's another thing when mentioning illegitimacy for a character who is beyond touchy on the subject of his own status.

Yes, people in general do that, but I'm not sure Ramsay is as emotionally stable as people in general. It's not just that he hates being called a bastard but that it triggers a huge emotional response in him. 

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17 minutes ago, Jadakiss said:


More then Tyrion

 

Tyrion says "whore" too many times to count. Out loud and inner thoughts combined it is over 40. He says the word "whore" more than anyone else in the series. Theon doesn't say the word "whore" out loud at all in the first 5 books. Not one time! Inner thoughts he says it 8 times. 

I'm amazed that you say this as such a matter of fact when it is so far from it. 

 

https://asearchoficeandfire.com/?q=whore+&scope[]=agot&scope[]=adwd&scope[]=acok&scope[]=asos&scope[]=affc

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1 minute ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Tyrion says "whore" too many times to count. Out loud and inner thoughts combined it is over 40. He says the word "whore" more than anyone else in the series. Theon doesn't say the word "whore" out loud at all in the first 5 books. Not one time! Inner thoughts he says it 8 times. 

I'm amazed that you say this as such a matter of fact when it is so far from it. 

 

https://asearchoficeandfire.com/?q=whore+&scope[]=agot&scope[]=adwd&scope[]=acok&scope[]=asos&scope[]=affc

I was going off most recent book not from the start. Yes you are correct if adding up all the books.

As far as the rest I believe Theon is 2nd or 3rd if add up all the books. Ramsay I am pretty sure is 0 I checked on him a couple times. But on the first point yes you are correct thats my mistake

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9 minutes ago, Jadakiss said:

I was going off most recent book not from the start. Yes you are correct if adding up all the books.

As far as the rest I believe Theon is 2nd or 3rd if add up all the books. Ramsay I am pretty sure is 0 I checked on him a couple times. But on the first point yes you are correct thats my mistake

The most recent book? Tyrion's most repetitive line comes in the most recent book. "Where do whores go?"

Did you check the link? Theon isn't even close to 2nd or 3rd. 

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On 1/12/2017 at 9:40 AM, three-eyed monkey said:

GRRM said Theon I TWoW took place before some of the events at the end of ADwD. We know it took place after Asha's last chapter, and there is not really any other chapter at the end of ADwD that it is relevant to. We also know that Theon I, and indeed the Battles of Ice and Fire, were initially meant to be part of ADwD but got bumped because of size. I'm not sure if it has ever been clarified where those bumped chapters would have fit into the original order of chapters. Presumably Jon XIII was always intended to be Jon's last chapter in ADwD, and we can take it that Asha's last chapter was not meant to be the last chapter from the Stannis arc in ADwD, so it is very possible that we would have gotten more from the Stannis camp, such as Theon I TWoW, before we got Jon's final chapter.

Thank you for the additional information! As I said in the OP, I do not claim to know Mance's motivation or all the details. There is a reason I did not offer any possible sequences of actions to describe how Mance wrote the PL. I truly believe GRRM has intentionally not given us all the information. So while you may say this is why my theory holds no water, I don't think motivation is the biggest thing to look for in a curated mystery like this and don't think it lessens my theory in the slightest. Not many people would have pinned Bran's assasin on Joeffrey after GoT either.

It seems like one of the biggest problems people have with Mance writing the PL is that it would be very tough for him, especially since, as far as we know, he was captured immediately following the escape and is in a cage for all the north to see. I think it's a mistake to believe any part of the PL. So, let's review why I think there's a good chance Mance has something up his sleeve that will allow him to be just fine.

Abel can fend for himselfmurmured Squirrel.

Abel bowed. "If it please your lordship." Lute in hand, he sauntered to the dais, hopping nimbly over a corpse or two, and seated himself cross-legged on the high table.

Most of my argument comes down to Mance not being stupid. He and the washerwoman are confident about his fate. Squirrel is not worried about him in the first example, and in the second, Mance is purposely mirroring the actions of Bael the Bard once again by seating himself at the high table. You can say I'm reading into this too much, but I do feel the fact that he is mirroring Bael's actions shows things are going exactly according to his plan. It's also noteworthy that he addresses Roose in a very formal manner, especially after Theon says,

"No, m'lord." Theon made sure to muddy up the word. He knew that pleased Lord Bolton.

I believe Mance's ascension to the high table as well as him addressing Roose formally both support him still executing his plan successfully. The fact that the other washerwoman don't worry about him is only further support.

Now, you ask what my proposed sequence events is from this Theon escaping to the PL being written. First I'd like to say that it easily couldhave been sent before these events even went down. Assuming it didn't though, I think we also need to remember that Mance could have written the letter and already given it to one of the washerwoman or Whoresbane and told them to send it on a specific signal such as the sad slow song, or to just send it whenever the escape was in process. So we really don't have to come up with a scenario where Mance leaves the great hall and writes the letter. The letter could have been part of the plan all along and someone already has it ready to send when theon escapes.

As I mentioned before, I never gave much thought to exactly how Mance could have written it as I never felt we had enough info. Since I've been asked to here I will come up with some possible explanations. I know none of these have too much evidence supporting them, which is why I didn't put them in the original post. Because once again, I don't think we are supposed to know this yet.

I think it could be a case of Mance working with many of the northern houses to put Jon in power. Mance has proven to be good at politics and there's a ton of text supporting a Mance Umber alliance. Really, no one like Stannis or the Boltons. Everyone  in the north wants a stark. I could see Mance plotting with the other northern houses, and part of it being that he will convince JS to come south. If Jon is named king of the north, it is the absolute best thing that could happen to the wildlings. This may or may not involve a mutiny immediately following LW's murder in which Mance and the other northern houses are now in control.

There are many theories that could in conjunction with the previous one or without.

For instance, Mance retreats into the crypts and hides. Uses alliances in WF such as the umbers to send letter

mance retreats to crypts, leads men back up the stairwell and defeats them there. Writes letter while in power

Mance swaps places with Ramsay in the crypts. (Since it's been discussed I might as well include cantuse's theory here), writes letter as ramsay

The other northern houses take control of WF and Mance writes the letter while in power.

Mance escapes WF. It really isn't that hard to imagine he leaves soon after LW's murder and just jumps off the wall. Then has stannis send or had already given to whoresbane.

Really for any of the previous theories, theres always "he wrote it and gave it to someone ahead of time to send" as well.

 

So there are some possible ideas. The more I think about it I think part of Mance's motivation was to bring JS south to be king, as well as the wildlings.

 

On 1/12/2017 at 0:54 PM, Makk said:

People often insult others with the words they hate being called them self the most. Ramsay sees the word Bastard as an insult but he has no problem using it about others. He uses it freely about his horse without any hesitation at all in Dance, Reek III

Reek tried to lift the head up by the ear. It was no good. The flesh was green and rotting, and the ear tore off between his fingers. Little Walder laughed, and a moment later all the other men were laughing too. "Oh, leave him be," said Ramsay. "Just see to Blood. I rode the bastard hard." 

I think the use of bastard is inconclusive when evaluating whether it was Ramsay. He may use it because he has such strong feelings about the word, he may avoid it for the same reasons, we'll never know. Same goes for the handwriting. JS had already seen it, is him not taking note of it a sign that this time it is normal handwriting, or a sign that JS is used to the handwriting and no longer needs to note it.

On 1/12/2017 at 0:57 PM, Jadakiss said:

The one thing that is certain is it isnt ramsay. I think it came from camp stannis, written by tybald with his dreadfort pink ink, dictated by stannis with help of theon. but there is good case for mance to

 

 

That there is a long thread where least most people can agree that it just def isnt ramsay

I disagree. It may be Ramsay.

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13 hours ago, Aegon VII said:

So there are some possible ideas. The more I think about it I think part of Mance's motivation was to bring JS south to be king, as well as the wildlings.

I agree there are lots of ideas about Mance writing the letter, just nothing solid in terms of motive, means or opportunity.

Theories that promote Mance as the writer always require the evidence to be supplemented with supposition, often with suppositions built on supposition, like Mance might have escaped, and he might have had an alliance with the Northern houses, and he might have written the letter before hand, and if we add up all these mights then we might see how Mance might have written the letter, maybe, even if we might not yet have been given the information we need to understand why he wrote the letter. And if that's wrong, then he might have just glamoured Ramsay or he might have control of Winterfell.

I agree that Mance may very well have evaded capture, I even think it likely that Mance's Rattleshirt glamour ruby was involved, and I agree that the Northern Houses are conspiring against the Boltons. But Mance writing the Pink Letter is too much of a stretch for me. The evidence does not fit because in Mance it is being applied to the wrong person.

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3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

 

I agree that Mance may very well have evaded capture, I even think it likely that Mance's Rattleshirt glamour ruby was involved, and I agree that the Northern Houses are conspiring against the Boltons. But Mance writing the Pink Letter is too much of a stretch for me. The evidence does not fit because in Mance it is being applied to the wrong person.

I Agree.

We can also agree to the "Bael scenario", but there is no letter in Bael's story, so this one can't serve as an argument for Mance being the writer of pink letter. 

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3 hours ago, three-eyed monkey said:

I agree there are lots of ideas about Mance writing the letter, just nothing solid in terms of motive, means or opportunity.

 

I actually could see Mance writing the letter. It fits in his character trying to pull a super-duper cunning move and getting it blown in his face, because he didn't consider one thing or two. But the logistics required to have Mance in position to write the PL, seem unsurmountable  to me.

On the other hand, it is hard to see Stannis writing such a letter. It doesn't fit in his arc. And there are some logistic considerations besides.

Going for Ramsay there are also a number of problems, mostly related to material elements in the letter or language. But this can be solved in we allow the letter to be modified at the Wall. Although the same applies to the previous cases.

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24 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

On the other hand, it is hard to see Stannis writing such a letter. It doesn't fit in his arc. And there are some logistic considerations besides.

I think it does fit his arc, and I don't think there are any logistical considerations, but we can continue that debate in the Stannis thread.

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@Aegon VII, this is extremely well thought out, and probably the best argument for Mance writing the letter I've seen on the forum. The lack of skin (none) jon receives always bothered me if ramsay is indeed the author. I don't think the wording proves or disproves any 3 men from writing it, and since the goal is to get jon to make moves, it clearly is successful. 

I do have questions about each possible author and why they would write it though. If it's Mance or Stannis, why rile up the LC to take his entire host south when they know damn well what's coming from the north? Mance especially knows the danger ahead, and moving the only men who seem to give a damn about the impending threat to humanity AWAY from the most defensible location seems silly. Southern politics should take a back seat at the moment. 

If Stannis is the author, the same thing applies, and his queen(s) and heir are located at the wall. Do they leave them with a few personal guards and wish them luck? Take them in to the thick of the battle? With either Stannis or Mance, it seems like a huge gamble to write the letter and hope that Jon makes a wise and well thought out decision. If he only takes the wildlings south, great, but bowen marsh and Co. aren't well suited to defend the realm from the Others. They would also have to at least entertain the thought that trying to get the LC to forsake his vows would end poorly for him. Unless Mel is in contact with Stannis and finally realizes jon needs to die because he's the legit AA. Too many questions still at this point.

As for Ramsay, I can totally see him doing the things in the PL, and writing it while in a blind rage. Fits his personality. But for so many people questioning how mance had access to the ravens, I can't see roose letting his wild bastard send crazed letters to yet another possible enemy. Even if Stannis is dead and mance is wearing a skin blanket, why provoke another assault on a place you have too many mouths to feed, not to mention the bad blood between many of your borderline loyal banner men? Unless roose died in this (possible) fight as well, but he's proven to be a cunning and cautious man. 

I feel like I'm playing 21 questions here and I'm sorry for that. But I'm still as undecided about the author as when I first read it. If I was a gambling man, which I am, I'd make mance the slight favorite, but I'm totally guessing and wouldn't take the bet. :dunno:

 

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3 minutes ago, KingMance said:

As for Ramsay, I can totally see him doing the things in the PL, and writing it while in a blind rage. Fits his personality. But for so many people questioning how mance had access to the ravens, I can't see roose letting his wild bastard send crazed letters to yet another possible enemy. Even if Stannis is dead and mance is wearing a skin blanket, why provoke another assault on a place you have too many mouths to feed, not to mention the bad blood between many of your borderline loyal banner men? Unless roose died in this (possible) fight as well, but he's proven to be a cunning and cautious man. 

Roose can also have left Winterfell with his own men, the Dustin and the Ryswell, after he sent the Frey, the Manderly... and Ramsay to the battle : the Frey-Manderly and Ramsay need at least 7 days (3 to join Stannis's camp, 1 for the battle, 3 (or a bit more) to come back) outside Winterfell, and that sufficiant for Roose to leave and let only few persons (some guards and a maester). 

Remember that Roose didn't never fight himself during the saga : against Tywin in AGOT he didn't sent all his own forces, then in ACOK he took Harrenhal by trichery (and sent Glover and Aenys Frey to play the falses prisonners), and finally he sent Glover and others in the trap of Duskendale and Maidenpool. We can suppose he did the same for this time : he found the best way to escape the trap of Winterfell and sacrified some awkward friends (the Frey), dangerous ennemies (Manderly), a bastard without sense of politic (Ramsay was usefull for him when he was in the south, but now he returned to north with a woman and will have children, Ramsay has no more use), and at least weaken Stannis' army. 

But I stop here, this is the Mance's thread

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