UK Politics: Trumpy Cat Trumpy Cat Where Have You Been?

[williamjm]

8 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The automatic assumption of, "Well, the SNP can't win" is dangerous. Things could shift rapidly in the coming years and even months, and it really wouldn't take much to move Scotland into a pro-EU mood.

I think Scotland already has a pro-EU mood, the question is to what extent it has a pro-Independence mood.

It'll be interesting to see how the SNP campaign will differ from the previous campaign. It might be an advantage that they've already had a dry run where their opponents have helpfully highlighted the weaker points of their argument so they know what they need to improve, of course the question is whether they've managed to come up with a more convincing answer on issues like the currency question.

[Chaircat Meow]

39 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The automatic assumption of, "Well, the SNP can't win" is dangerous. Things could shift rapidly in the coming years and even months, and it really wouldn't take much to move Scotland into a pro-EU mood.

For example, there are serious recruitment problems in the NHS and they have baldly said that if they cannot recruit the numbers from Europe they have previously (and, more importantly, if potential recruits in the EU no longer feel welcome in the UK), then the NHS simply cannot cope. It cannot afford to recruit from further afield (it takes three times the money to train and recruit a nurse from South-East Asia, for example, than the EU) and this may be the thing that tips the NHS over the edge into the area where it has to begin reducing services. The argument that Scotland will have better health care if it remains within the EU than as part of the UK would be well-supported and powerfully persuasive to many people.

That sounds like a bad idea. Polling suggests the group most likely to have had a change of heart over separation are so-called YES-Leavers, i.e. those people who voted YES to independence and Leave in the Brexit referendum. Guess what: they are not so hot on immigration.

 

 

[Ser Reptitious]

6 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

That sounds like a bad idea. Polling suggests the group most likely to have had a change of heart over separation are so-called YES-Leavers, i.e. those people who voted YES to independence and Leave in the Brexit referendum. Guess what: they are not so hot on immigration.

 

 

Why do you automatically assume that someone who voted for Brexit did so due to anti-immigration sentiments? Someone could very well dislike the EU for many other reasons (too undemocratic, too much regulatory red tape, not liking "ever closer union", etc. etc.).

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

2 hours ago, Ser Reptitious said:

Why do you automatically assume that someone who voted for Brexit did so due to anti-immigration sentiments? Someone could very well dislike the EU for many other reasons (too undemocratic, too much regulatory red tape, not liking "ever closer union", etc. etc.).

I'd say it was a pretty fair assumption that immigration was high on the list of issues of most leave voters. 

[Chaircat Meow]

2 hours ago, Ser Reptitious said:

Why do you automatically assume that someone who voted for Brexit did so due to anti-immigration sentiments? Someone could very well dislike the EU for many other reasons (too undemocratic, too much regulatory red tape, not liking "ever closer union", etc. etc.).

Was referring to this.

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/48-back-independence/

''When we take a deeper look into the results we can see why the move is such a big risk. Although for most Scots Brexit is the number one issue, for ‘Yes-Leavers‘ their top concern is actually Immigration (23%), with very few prioritising independence (5%). This contrasts sharply with the other wing of Sturgeon’s support, the ‘Yes Remainers’, whose top priority after Brexit is undoubtedly Scottish independence (21%). Given that the priorities of ‘Yes-Leavers‘ may be not well-aligned with Sturgeon’s vision of a pro-EU, pro-immigration Scottish nation, that may find itself one-day back inside the EU, it is easy to see why they haven’t responded warmly to the rallying cry for another referendum.''

[Ser Reptitious]

1 hour ago, Chaircat Meow said:

1 hour ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

I'd say it was a pretty fair assumption that immigration was high on the list of issues of most leave voters. 

 

How so? I seem to recall that the big billboard bus that was generally considered to be very effective focused on how much money the UK supposedly sends to the EU every week, and that this money should be given to the NHS instead. Immigration doesn't figure in that at all. 

 

1 hour ago, Chaircat Meow said:

1 hour ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Was referring to this.

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/48-back-independence/

''When we take a deeper look into the results we can see why the move is such a big risk. Although for most Scots Brexit is the number one issue, for ‘Yes-Leavers‘ their top concern is actually Immigration (23%), with very few prioritising independence (5%). This contrasts sharply with the other wing of Sturgeon’s support, the ‘Yes Remainers’, whose top priority after Brexit is undoubtedly Scottish independence (21%). Given that the priorities of ‘Yes-Leavers‘ may be not well-aligned with Sturgeon’s vision of a pro-EU, pro-immigration Scottish nation, that may find itself one-day back inside the EU, it is easy to see why they haven’t responded warmly to the rallying cry for another referendum.''

Thanks for the link. I don't doubt that the SNP is facing an uphill batte on this, but if you look at your stat in another way, it also shows that for 78% of 'Yes-Leavers' immigration is NOT a top priority. I guess immigration comes in at the top with a mere 23% (less than a quarter of 'Yes-Leavers') precisely because the reasons for voting 'leave' vary so widely.

However, I agree that trying to convince 'Yes-Leavers' to choose independence if this means staying in the EU will be a tough sell regardless of what exactly caused these people to vote for leaving the EU in the first place. The SNP better hope that the fallout from Brexit becomes noticably bad enough that the needle of the 'No-Remainers' moves up from the current 8%. 

[DJDonegal]

This is actually the best timing Sturgeon could manage with the hand she was dealt. As mormont has pointed out, an EU Referendum result diametrically opposed to Scotland's wishes was a specific point made in the SNP's manifesto for Holyrood elections in 2016.

Given that, she was always (always) going to call a new referendum after the UK voted to leave as a whole. All that came after that was a matter of getting the timing right. The website was up and running within minutes of the announcement, as was the process of fundraising.

There are some arguments that the manifesto promise was, just like Cameron's on the EU, a method of party management. And now largely unexpected circumstances have forced Sturgeon into calling a referendum before she wanted to, the only difference with Cameron being he probably didn't want to call one at all and had been hoping to drop the pledge in another coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

The argument that Sturgeon lost her Holyrood majority, and with it her mandate, is just not right. Holyrood was created to prevent single-party majorities, evidenced in the SNP making gains in their constituency vote share in 2016 but losing their majority anyway.

This timing makes perfect sense. She gets out ahead of Theresa May, making her look ponderous and lending credence to the idea that Brexit is being mishandled by indecision. More than that, a referendum campaign taking place concurrently with the Brexit negotiations allows two advantages to the pro-independence campaign:

1. Any slip at all in what the SNP deem a red-line in the UK relationship with the EU will be pounced upon and highlighted. With a referendum coming, this means the SNP reaction will be well covered by the press, giving Sturgeon good exposure for 18 months.
2. It splits the pro-Unionists. They now have the scenario where many Unionists will want to criticise the Brexit deal (and they will, no matter what) without criticisng it to such an extent that they sell the SNP's independence argument for them. That's a tough tightrope to walk and it will weaken the strength of the Unionist argument on the national stage.

I considered the 10-point margin of victory in 2014 large enough to end the argument, but in these circumstances, it's far from certain the result will be the same this time.

[Chaircat Meow]

18 minutes ago, Ser Reptitious said:

Thanks for the link. I don't doubt that the SNP is facing an uphill batte on this, but if you look at your stat in another way, it also shows that for 78% of 'Yes-Leavers' immigration is NOT a top priority. I guess immigration comes in at the top with a mere 23% (less than a quarter of 'Yes-Leavers') precisely because the reasons for voting 'leave' vary so widely.

However, I agree that trying to convince 'Yes-Leavers' to choose independence if this means staying in the EU will be a tough sell regardless of what exactly caused these people to vote for leaving the EU in the first place. The SNP better hope that the fallout from Brexit becomes noticably bad enough that the needle of the 'No-Remainers' moves up from the current 8%. 

In the Indyref1 the SNP said all claims about economic difficulties Scotland would encounter if it voted for independence were 'fearmongering' and 'talking Scotland down.' They said those warning about these things were part of Project Fear. However, very similar claims were made about the likely consequences of the UK's exit from the EU. If those claims come true it would suggest Project Fear style arguments are actually not 'fearmongering' but contain a substantial element of truth. So we should not just assume the Brexit fallout will move the needle towards separatism. It might do so, but it could also push it the other way. It is very hard to tell.

[Hereward]

I'm also not sure the Scots would fancy being thrown out of NATO, with a Spanish veto being highly likely if they seek membership as an independent country.

[The Marquis de Leech]

4 minutes ago, Hereward said:

I'm also not sure the Scots would fancy being thrown out of NATO, with a Spanish veto being highly likely if they seek membership as an independent country.

Vladimir Putin is not about to invade Scotland any time soon.

[Chaircat Meow]

6 minutes ago, Hereward said:

I'm also not sure the Scots would fancy being thrown out of NATO, with a Spanish veto being highly likely if they seek membership as an independent country.

Some Scots will be happier voting for separation if we are then rejected by the EU.

[DJDonegal]

2 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Vladimir Putin is not about to invade Scotland any time soon.

But what about Trump who finally snaps over those unsightly wind turbines?

[Hereward]

2 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Vladimir Putin is not about to invade Scotland any time soon.

Of course not, but not being members of the UK, the EU and NATO all at the same time will make many Scots feel isolated. Not to mention the economic damage as Scotland is a major home of military bases and defence industries. 

[mormont]

12 minutes ago, Hereward said:

I'm also not sure the Scots would fancy being thrown out of NATO, with a Spanish veto being highly likely if they seek membership as an independent country.

The Spanish veto is now much less likely to happen. The case for Scottish EU membership post-Brexit is easily differentiated from any potential Catalan application if a referendum there were ever to succeed.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/an-independent-scotland-could-be-fast-tracked-into-the-eu-1-4371192

https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/eu-officials-are-discussing-how-to-fast-track-an-independent?utm_term=.cuDDPNEmOg#.loRmdGDkyQ

As for NATO, many SNP voters wouldn't be upset by a veto there but again I think it's unlikely so long as Spain can say 'well, this isn't the same as Catalonia at all'.

My sense is that the timing of this is very much intended to allow the referendum to act as a second referendum on Brexit as well as a second referendum on independence. The suggestion from the SNP is that they want to hold it once the details of the Brexit deal are public. So the SNP won't be up for any delay. And delay is the most likely response from the Tories - an outright refusal would kill off the Tory revival in Scotland.

Having said that, the road is definitely uphill - the general impression I have from most of my friends is that even if they believe the referendum is necessary, they're not really looking forward to the campaign. That's likely to be the biggest obstacle: people might be weary or afraid of more change.

[Hereward]

I think that's very optimistic. I suppose 2023 is possible, but the problem, even if Spain does not veto, which isn't covered in either of those links, is that British trade legislation will diverge from that of the EU after Brexit and before Scotland becomes independent, which will add significant complexity to accession.

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

1 hour ago, Ser Reptitious said:

How so? I seem to recall that the big billboard bus that was generally considered to be very effective focused on how much money the UK supposedly sends to the EU every week, and that this money should be given to the NHS instead. Immigration doesn't figure in that at all. 

 

The NHS thing is a red herring. Immigration was always the major issue when it comes to leave voters concerns about the EU. There are plenty of polls showing this, but also if you actually go and talk to anyone who voted Leave, if you get to their true feelings, it was always immigration that was the main issue. I think its also very understandable.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3746/Immigration-is-now-the-top-issue-for-voters-in-the-EU-referendum.aspx

 

Quote

Immigration has now surpassed the economy becoming the most important issue for voters. One in three (33%) mention immigration as one of their most important issues (up from 28% in May) compared with 28% saying the economy (down from 33%). There are striking differences on these two issues when looking at them by voting preference. More than half (52%) of those likely to vote to leave in the referendum mention immigration as an issue compared with 14% of those likely to vote to remain while two in five (41%) Remain voters say the economy is an important issue compared with 18% of Leave voters. 

 

[mormont]

42 minutes ago, Hereward said:

I think that's very optimistic. I suppose 2023 is possible, but the problem, even if Spain does not veto, which isn't covered in either of those links, is that British trade legislation will diverge from that of the EU after Brexit and before Scotland becomes independent, which will add significant complexity to accession.

I think the second of those was the wrong link, sorry. Let me substitute these, since I can't now find the one I meant to post:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39236117

Quote

 

Esetban Pons MEP is vice chair for Mr Rajoy's People's Party in the European Parliament.

He told me: "If Scotland in the future wants to come back they have to begin the procedure as any other country."
But, I asked him, would Spain try and veto Scotland re-entering?
"No because if you are thinking about Catalonia the situation is very very very different to the Scottish situation."

 

Straws in the wind rather than official Spanish position, but as I say, so long as there's a clear line to draw so the Spanish can say 'yes' to Scotland without saying 'yes' to a hypothetical future Catalan application it seems unlikely they'll veto an application from a country who otherwise meets the criteria.

As for the divergence point, if the direction of travel is clear, those problems won't be significant and can be accounted for along the way. If you know where you're going you can keep charting a path there, even if you start out moving down another road.

[DJDonegal]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

Straws in the wind rather than official Spanish position, but as I say, so long as there's a clear line to draw so the Spanish can say 'yes' to Scotland without saying 'yes' to a hypothetical future Catalan application it seems unlikely they'll veto an application from a country who otherwise meets the criteria.

Spanish foreign minister Alfonso Dastis also said:

Quote

Scotland will be "at the back of the queue".

Again, it's no admission that they will use some kind of veto. It's an admission that Scotland is more than welcome to join the queue, but an assertion that continued membership will be off the table as far as Spain is concerned.

[mormont]

Yeah, he did say that - but there is no queue to be at the back of. If and when a country completes the process, it's in, even if another applicant country started the process earlier and still hasn't completed. No matter how long Macedonia, for example, takes to meet the accession criteria, it doesn't have any effect on Scottish accession.

So I can only read that as another way of saying 'you have to go through the process', which everyone already acknowledges.

[Chaircat Meow]

John Curtice on Scottish attitudes to the EU from the latest Ipsos Mori poll:

''Moreover, the Ipsos MORI poll contained a clear reminder that the degree of enthusiasm for Scotland staying in the EU may well be much less than might be anticipated from the fact that 62% of Scots who voted in the EU referendum voted to Remain. Rather less than half (48%) told the company that an independent Scotland should be a full member of the EU, while as many as 44% seem to be opposed to EU membership (27% stated that Scotland should have ‘full access’ to the single market without being a member of the EU, while 17% answered that Scotland should neither be part of the single market nor of the EU). Even amongst those who said they would vote Yes in a second independence referendum, only 64% backed the idea of EU membership – much as only two-thirds of Yes voters backed Remain last June.

It was perhaps revealing that the emphasis in Ms Sturgeon’s announcement on Monday was on keeping Scotland in the single market rather than in the EU. Perhaps she has been reading the latest polling very closely too!''