Jump to content

German politics xth attempt


kiko

Recommended Posts

Of course there would have been such an option. It was not even tried, so we do not know if it could have worked. We simply do not know if the Left would have been so stubborn wrt to NATO or if they would have compromised (like they did all the time in Berlin and other local governments, so I think that this is far more likely). That's the point of a coalition and negotiations that one does not have to agree on everything. The main reason was that most of the SPD powerful men at that time were not at all leftists and they hated Lafo as a "traitor" (when the latter would have had equally good reasons to claim that Schroeder betrayed their internal compromise in 1999). And they didn't really care as long as it was cushy positions for them as Merkel's lapdogs. (I guess they also underestimated Merkel as everyone did.)

But the main point is not even if it could have worked or not. The main point for the SPD should have been that strategically they should NEVER have excluded the option beforehand. (And it was very doubtful if the Grand coaliton would work. I cannot have been the only one who in 2005 was fairly certain that they would not last for the whole 4 years, I was wrong but I don't think that it was a completely unreasonable expectation.)

Now they are out of options because of that foolishness in the past. They lost half of their members and half of their voters in the last 20 years. They are headed for 15% anyway. They have not a single charismatic and intelligent person among their leading personnel. Schulz and Nahles are neither and some of the fairly smart ones like Steinmeier are faceless bureaucrats.

Either the Leftists somehow manage to rejuvenate the Left (broadly speaking, not only the "Linke" party) miraculously, maybe even with a new party. Or some other miracle happens but more likely the future is going to be black and blue, like Austria. And then anything might become possible. If the Union splits or goes down a similar trajectory we might have frequently three-party governments with no party stronger than 25 or even 20% and several around 15-20.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

12 hours ago, Jo498 said:

Either the Leftists somehow manage to rejuvenate the Left (broadly speaking, not only the "Linke" party) miraculously, maybe even with a new party. Or some other miracle happens but more likely the future is going to be black and blue, like Austria. And then anything might become possible. If the Union splits or goes down a similar trajectory we might have frequently three-party governments with no party stronger than 25 or even 20% and several around 15-20.

I kinda regret not voting for our version of the social democrats (I voted Liste Pilz...).

It is a worst case scenario come true... I would rather have Merkel...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are lots of differences but in many respects Austria is about 20 years "ahead". Your mainstream social democrats and conservatives lost credibility already years ago because of their frequent coalitions and deals and this made Haider's FPÖ possible. This is somewhat similar to what happened in German since the early 2000s. I count from the bad things the Schroeder government did because this weakened Social democracy so that the following development became possible.

Another common factor is that, I think, both countries tend to be broadly conservative, less in a political way but in a general and social way. We dislike change, often for very good reasons because both former Western Germany and Austria were very successful with their broadly social democratic policies (no matter which party actually was in charge) of the 50s-80s. But this conservative stance might be one reason why in doubt the leftist parties are always a little (or a lot) weaker.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Looks like there is to be another coalition of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats after all. According to the media, Schulz is to resign as party leader and become foreign minister instead. Olaf Scholz will be finance minister, Andrea Nahles takes over as party leader. Seehofer is to be interior minister. Looks a bit like the Social Democrats are grooming Scholz to be their next candidate for chancellor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course, a few months ago, Schulz definitely promised never to become a minister under Merkel... Oh well. I guess he knows he's an embarassment anyway, so it doesn't mattera nymore.

As to Scholz... Yeah, because G20 was such a success...

https://www.politico.eu/article/holding-story-5-takewaways-on-german-coalition-deal/

Germany’s conservatives and Social Democrats agreed to renew their “grand coalition” after weeks of marathon — and often contentious — talks. So why is no one breaking out the champagne?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One has to grant the Social democrats their frustration and their nonchalance with respect to earlier statements and promises. Merkel has flipped on almost every major issue and still is regarded as "anchor of stability" in Europe by most of the press and public opinion, so they simply do not understand why such "common sense" should not apply to them as well but that they rather would be held up against yesterday's promises.

The AfD rightwingers are probably breaking out the champaigne because now they have a good chance to overtake the SPD at the next election. And who knows if it will even take 4 years? I think we are about one terrorist attack or a handful of public rape/murder cases away from public opinion turning big time against the grand coalition because of their lax immigration policies. And should Germany not win the World Cup in summer all bets are off as to what could happen...

Of course the clusterf*ck could still be made more interesting if the SPD member do not support their leaders (but this is highly unlikely).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okay... totally off topic... and mods feel free to delete if so...

I'm headed to Hamburg, Germany for the International Rotary Convention in June 2019.  I'd like to book a hotel early before rates jump ridiculously (for the upcoming conference this June in Toronto, I have a friend who got his room for $152/night but by the time I looked into it in November the same hotel was $550/night).

It will be held on the exhibition grounds of Hamburg Messe und Congress GmbH (HMC).

Any suggestions for lodging?

(I'm going AirBnB for Toronto; but if there's a reasonable hotel close by... I'd prefer that in Hamburg.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Okay... totally off topic... and mods feel free to delete if so...

I'm headed to Hamburg, Germany for the International Rotary Convention in June 2019.  I'd like to book a hotel early before rates jump ridiculously (for the upcoming conference this June in Toronto, I have a friend who got his room for $152/night but by the time I looked into it in November the same hotel was $550/night).

It will be held on the exhibition grounds of Hamburg Messe und Congress GmbH (HMC).

Any suggestions for lodging?

(I'm going AirBnB for Toronto; but if there's a reasonable hotel close by... I'd prefer that in Hamburg.)

Trivago is usually the best place for booking hotels in Germany. Hamburg has good public transport, so you can choose a cheap place away from the inner city

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Loge said:

Trivago is usually the best place for booking hotels in Germany. Hamburg has good public transport, so you can choose a cheap place away from the inner city

Will check it out.  Have not been to mainland Europe in close to 20 years.

Am looking forward to it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

No, one has not.

Of course not. I was trying to make a poor joke that they could almost be excused because Merkel got away with such behavior and remained in power so they would naively think they could do the same. They cannot and they will be punished by the voters. The only problem is that Merkel's party will not be as punished as they deserve and that the advantage will lie with the new rightist party that is even worse. It is a fairly horrible situation and I don't think I have been as pessimist about politics as now in my whole adult life (that admittedly started on a hopeful note with the Fall of the Wall that took place when I was 17).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

Of course, a few months ago, Schulz definitely promised never to become a minister under Merkel... Oh well. I guess he knows he's an embarassment anyway, so it doesn't mattera nymore.

As to Scholz... Yeah, because G20 was such a success...

https://www.politico.eu/article/holding-story-5-takewaways-on-german-coalition-deal/

Germany’s conservatives and Social Democrats agreed to renew their “grand coalition” after weeks of marathon — and often contentious — talks. So why is no one breaking out the champagne?

The coalition talks didn't take that long. It just took forever to get them started. First the CDU wanted to wait for the elections in Lower Saxony, then there was a month of Jamaica talks, then the SPD had to convince itself that another GroKo is the lesser evil vs. new elections. I don't see how the coalition can last a full term, though. Looks like suicide for all parties involved. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes. They are really complete idiots. Many suspect or know that politicians are usually only greedy for certain positions and fight each other behind the scenes. But usually they take at least the trouble to pretend it is not for personal gain or pride but for real political differences and they also try to keep these infights behind the scenes.

My main hope is that the CDU will also self-desctruct in a similar fashion, at least in a few years when Merkel will be gone. But many among them are already angry now because they feel that the SPD got too many of the more important ministries.

Interestingly, this guy predicted that there were certain interests to replace Gabriel with Schulz already several months before Schulz became the short-lived hope in early 2017:

http://norberthaering.de/de/27-german/news/715-atlantic-council

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/11/merkel-defends-painful-compromises-that-kept-her-in-power

Angela Merkel has defended “painful” concessions she made to the Social Democrats (SPD) to win a fourth term as German chancellor and said criticism from conservatives was not a sign her authority was waning.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/10/germany-politics-kevin-kuhnert-student-angela-merkel-spd-grand-coalition

Kevin Kühnert, a 28-year-old student from Berlin who heads the youth wing of the Social Democrats, is the most talked-about politician in Germany. If he succeeds in his plan to scotch the idea of a Grand Coalition, the fragile construct agreed on last week by Merkel’s conservatives and the left-of-centre SPD, he will simply be the man who turned German politics upside down.

(Spoiler: He won't succeed. And yes, he will become like Gerhard Schröder... they all do, after their little leftist stint with the youth organisation.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Merkel interview is available on the ZDF website. What she says isn't all that interesting but the fact that she addresses the public now seems to indicate that she feels the need to defend herself. So far she had been rather quiet since the election.

Meanwhile, the Postillion has a few nice pieces on the SPD: On Schulz's (now revoked) decision to join Merkel's cabinet. On the wave of new party members. 

Not a direct jibe at the SPD, but fitting: On the (first round of) the coalition talks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kühnert will not achieve anything (except making his name more familiar which is important for a young politician).

It is nevertheless true that the coalition will be anything but stable. Their policies will be mostly business as usual, i.e. Merkelian, so both the CSU and CDU rightwingers as well as the handful of Social Democrats left in the SPD will be unhappy with it. The bankruptcy of the SPD becomes clear in Schulz' phrase that the "party" (i.e. its top functionaries!) has to become younger, more female and more digital. What utter nonsense! They have completely lost the contact to their voting base. Their goals should be better conditions for the precariously employed, the unemployed, the elderly, fairer distribution of wealth, healthcare costs etc. It should be completely irrelevant if functionaries are male/female, old/young, as long as they are competent. (Obviously, because they are not competent one has to focus on accidentals like age and gender.)

The coalition will be held together by greed for positions and fear. That fear is well-founded because if they fail and there is another election, chances are pretty good that they will not have a majority anymore (e.g. CDU 29 and SPD 17%).

A lot might depend on the next regional elections, especially in Bavaria (where the CSU must hope to keep their majority, anything else will be seen as weakness), then in Hesse (probably not such an important indicator) and in 2019 in Saxony where the AfD could achieve very strong results. If Bavaria and Saxony go badly for the Union parties, 2019 might get really interesting...

@Loge: Yes, these are great! (I had seen them already)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...