Jump to content

German politics xth attempt


kiko

Recommended Posts

So, if she cannot come back from the EU summit of leaders in just under a fortnight with some kind of plan or agreement, it will be open season on the German chancellor.

Yeah, if by "some kind of plan" they mean something substantial in terms of common European policies and refugee quota for each country... when hell freezes over, maybe. Kramp-Karrenbauer is waiting in the wings, I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We sure do live in interesting times...

I don't see how Merkel survives this in the medium term. The CSU will continue to push this issue, potentially preserving their hold on Bavaria (I hope not, though. Their antics inside the state have been quite intense, too. What with all those 1940's style police orders and forced crucifixes in government buildings. It's quite disheartening to see from up close, particularly with several friends directly affected by the new police orders). And while it might help the CSU, it will absolutely wreck the CDU in the process. Even the grand coalition would not have a majority now, according to polls. Meanwhile, the SPD can't afford to just give in to all of Seehofer's and Söder's demands, either. Something's gotta give.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, el tío de Vale(ncia) said:

We sure do live in interesting times...

I don't see how Merkel survives this in the medium term. The CSU will continue to push this issue, potentially preserving their hold on Bavaria (I hope not, though. Their antics inside the state have been quite intense, too. What with all those 1940's style police orders and forced crucifixes in government buildings. It's quite disheartening to see from up close, particularly with several friends directly affected by the new police orders). And while it might help the CSU, it will absolutely wreck the CDU in the process. Even the grand coalition would not have a minority now, according to polls. Meanwhile, the SPD can't afford to just give in to all of Seehofer's and Söder's demands, either. Something's gotta give.

What type of leader would replace Merkel? I can't say I know too much about the current political situation in Germany. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't know, either. Coalition talks would be tough, as currently, no two-party coalition could hope to get a majority, and three-party coalitions need to find some common ground, which is what sank the Union/FDP/Grüne (roughly: Conservatives/Libertarians/Greens) talks last time around. A lot would depend on the fallout from the current standoff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we're talking who could take her place in her own party, I see two options: AKK, basically a Merkel clone (neo-liberal, relatively reasonable and compromising regarding other issues, rather exercising her power behind the scenes than in public), and Spahn - young(ish), very ambitious and very right-wing. He'd invite the AfD to form a coalition in a heartbeat.

As for the other parties... The SPD are turncoats par excellence, so I wouldn't put it beyond them to work with the AfD (to prevent worse, you know... for the country). The Green Party are so desperate to govern they'd sell their grandmothers, but they wouldn't if the AfD was part of the deal. The FDP, on the other hand...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It looks like the BND spied on targets in Austria at least from 1999 to 2006.

That is not a real surprise and the information is not new and among the targets were the UN and a lot of embassies. 

I guess that is legal by German law and job of the BND.  

An Austrian newspaper now got a list of targets. 

According to that list the BND seems to do a lot of industrial espionage which is illegal by German law. It is also illegal to spy on Germans for the BND according to the article and as it is nearly impossible to find a bigger Austrian company without German employees that could be a problem to. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would love to see Merkel go down. And the CDU fully deserves the fate of the SPD (i.e going below 20%). And the CSU deserves a crashing defeat in Bavaria. But don't get your hopes up. They hate each other but they love power more than anything else, so they will work out some compromise and blunder on for another two years. And the Greens are fairly stable and have shown to be even more "flexible" than the FDP (i.e. spineless, opportunistic scum) so they will be happy to provide scaffolding for a crumbling government. If the AfD were not self-destructive idiots they would already be above 20%, not around 12-15.

It will only get worse for quite a while. Next big thing I expect is a lynch mob trying to get at a refugee/foreigner suspected of rape or so. (There apparently recently was a lynch mob after a TV show on pedophiles. They broke into a flat and seriously beat up a person who looked similar to a suspected pedophile offender shown on TV. Needless to say, the poor guy was innocent.)

https://meedia.de/2018/06/14/war-rtl-bericht-ueber-paedophile-ausloeser-fuer-lynchjustiz-ermittler-pruefen-punkt-12-beitrag/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, chiKanery et al. said:

What type of leader would replace Merkel? I can't say I know too much about the current political situation in Germany. 

Right now there isn't really anybody. Certainly not within her own CDU. Jens Spahn is the consevative wing's hopeful, but it's probably too early for him. If Merkel were to resign for health reasons (no known issues, but let's assume for argument's sake), the party would probably pick von der Leyen, Klöckner, or Kramp-Karrenbauer. All rather weak candidates but Merkel-loyalists. If she resigned because of a power struggle within the party, the successor would have to come from the winning side. Right now that probably would have to be somebody from the CSU. Then of course the CSU could leave the alliance with the CDU and operate nation-wide. Nobody knows what would happen then, mid-term. It wouldn't really change anything immediately.

As for the other parties, the most natural way to get Merkel kicked out of office would be the Social Democrats winning the next elections, but that doesn't look likely right now.

Right now Merkel's position is fairly strong as she has been elected for the term and the Bundestag would have to elect somebody else to kick her out. As simple vote of no confidence wouldn't do. So she could reshuffle her coalition (CSU out, Greens in) without a vote in parliament. What that would do to her party is another matter, but she has never seemed to care much about that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Loge said:

Right now there isn't really anybody. Certainly not within her own CDU. Jens Spahn is the consevative wing's hopeful, but it's probably too early for him. If Merkel were to resign for health reasons (no known issues, but let's assume for argument's sake), the party would probably pick von der Leyen, Klöckner, or Kramp-Karrenbauer. All rather weak candidates but Merkel-loyalists. If she resigned because of a power struggle within the party, the successor would have to come from the winning side. Right now that probably would have to be somebody from the CSU. Then of course the CSU could leave the alliance with the CDU and operate nation-wide. Nobody knows what would happen then, mid-term. It wouldn't really change anything immediately.

As for the other parties, the most natural way to get Merkel kicked out of office would be the Social Democrats winning the next elections, but that doesn't look likely right now.

Right now Merkel's position is fairly strong as she has been elected for the term and the Bundestag would have to elect somebody else to kick her out. As simple vote of no confidence wouldn't do. So she could reshuffle her coalition (CSU out, Greens in) without a vote in parliament. What that would do to her party is another matter, but she has never seemed to care much about that.

I'm sure that Merkel would be far happier to have the Greens than the CSU in her Coalition.  But, that would create a huge right wing bloc in opposition to her.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

If we're talking who could take her place in her own party, I see two options: AKK, basically a Merkel clone (neo-liberal, relatively reasonable and compromising regarding other issues, rather exercising her power behind the scenes than in public), and Spahn - young(ish), very ambitious and very right-wing. He'd invite the AfD to form a coalition in a heartbeat.

 

You forgot openly gay in Spahn's list of attributes. Not that it matters or changes the fact the he is a right wing blow hard. but usually the media points it out. So why did I bring it up? Well, his spouse is writing for the GALA (for the non-German speakers, it's a lifestyle, housewife magazine). and of course he wrote a very flattering homestory about the new ambassador to Germany. That guy got into hotwater after telling Breitbart in an interview, that he wants to promote conservative parties and movements across Europe, which is not exactly the job of an ambassador. One of the sentences in that piece of journalistic calamity was, that he could be of great help to Merkel, when it comes to dealing with Trump. Oh, and of course both couples are close friend, which the author did not disclose.

Anyway, I consider Spahn to be the most likely successor to Merkel, too. But I think that would collapse the current goverment in a heartbeat. I really can't see Jens "abortionn is murder" Spahn  being remotely palatable for the SPD. He is simply too extreme.

As for the Bavarians hillbillies from the CSU. Yes, it's campaign season with regards to Bavaria. Yes, they deserve to suffer a crushing defeat, but you guys down south have always managed to vote for them, no matter how repgunant or corrupt. So why would you kick them out now? The only reason I can see is Söder being from Franconia.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Yeah, he's a third-rate diva, only crazier.

At this point, it feels like a banana republic:

1. three (or was it four?) months of coalition negotiations between CDU/ CSU/ FDP, failing at the last minute

2. several more weeks for the CDU to court the SPD and make a u-turn (after having declined right after the elections)

3. less than 100 days later: this current spiel

Of course, apparently NOT doing anything like, you know, governing was sort of Merkel's thing up until 2015. Honestly, even when people were dissatisfied with the government, they still loved her - somehow, they didn't connect those two things.

But that has long changed; Merkel is weak, the SPD is useless (their normal modus operandi), and the AfD is getting stronger and uglier (re: certain speeches at their party convention).

Meanwhile, our schools and streets are fallig apart, we fail the climate saving goals (I'm sure there's a better term for it), finding affordable housing in cities is next to impossible, while infrastructure in rural areas is getting less and less... But by all means, guys, take your time! No hurry!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is it too much to hope for to get rid of both Söder and Seehofer by the end of the year?

I mean, Seehofer will have to resign. There's just no way for him to stay on. I guess it's also time his ministry is getting run by a "Volljurist" instead of a "Vollhorst". (lame joke, let some German speaker explain it to you, if you want to).

Anyway. 

59 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

But that has long changed; Merkel is weak, the SPD is useless (their normal modus operandi), and the AfD is getting stronger and uglier (re: certain speeches at their party convention).

 

A few things. One I don't think Merkel is actually weak. She is weaker than she used to be, but nobody in her own party has the juice to oust her (infact her coleaders backed her up), and she seems on course to dispose of Crazy Horst. And depending on which narrative you buy into, she still has some sway over the EU. So I think articles of her demise are a bit premature. The SPD is indeed useless, also water is wet. I don't think the AfD is getting uglier. It's staying consistently on a level of ugliness. It's still Höcke "monument of shame" national romantic (Gauland) ugly. What I think has gotten uglier (which I never thought possible) is the CSU in their attempts to mimic the AfD. I mean they always had some similarities to the AfD (no matter how much our missing in action poster @Arakan denied that. But I think even he would be hard pressed to point out substantial differences between those two parties.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

Meanwhile, our schools and streets are fallig apart, we fail the climate saving goals (I'm sure there's a better term for it), finding affordable housing in cities is next to impossible, while infrastructure in rural areas is getting less and less... But by all means, guys, take your time! No hurry!

I've heard a political analyst guy once say Germany was sitting on a ticking bomb, with its workforce going massively into retirement, and little to no infrastructure spending, all for the sake of the sacrosanct "no debt" paradigm, meaning soon it would go into crisis, not being able to finance critical areas of its economic structure for lack of maintenance.

I did not want to really believe it, but you seem to confirm the disaster scenario. Is it really that bad? What will Schauble say to Greece in ten years if it is?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Schäuble is kind of unlikely to be around in ten years; he's already 76.

That said, yes, the disregard for infrastructure programs over the last decade is certainly felt clearly, and the coalition parties seem entirely uninterested in the issue. Heck, we're mostly still on copper wires for internet access!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...