German politics xth attempt

[Loge]

Schäuble hasn't been a member of the government since last year's elections. He is the speaker (president) of the Bundestag now. Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats is minister of finance now. Not that it changed anything.

So Seehofer is going to stay after all? The Postillion couldn't make this up.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Of course that c*** is staying - at least for the moment. However that compromise has essentially just kicked down the can a bit further down the road. Their solution requires the consent of Austria and Italy to take back refugees that underwent the registration process there - none of those two countries seems likely to comply. Then there's this legally questionable idea(in other words typcial CSU legislation) of transit centres, which basically pretend that the refugees are not on German soil (despite physically being there), I don't think that airport analogy is gonna fly in court, if the SPD doesn't put a stop that Bavarian nonsense before. So why that compromise? They just hope that nonsense does not have to stand a real reality test before the Bavarian election (with regards to the courts decission that is probably a realistic assessment). So there's still a chance to get the two assclowns (Söder and Seehofer) out before the end of the year. Seehofer, when this compromise falls through at some point, and Söder if the Bavarian electorate for once does more then just mindlessly casting a vote for that corrupt tribal AfD light, called CSU.

That refugee  deal Merkel struck with Greece however does not what the CSU wanted. Greece agreed to take back refugees that first registered there, and in return Merkel promised to fasten the pace to process applications for family reunions. That way Greece seems to be able to ship more people to Germany than vice versa. From a humanitarian perspective a good solution, but not from the CSU as it increases the number of refugees in Germany, at least short to midterm.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Crazy Horst with a new attempt to get fired. No, this is not about that compromise, that's never ever gonna work (despite Austria, Italy and Hungary pretty much shooting that one down), this time he decides to meddle with the EU handling of Brexit. Of course his antics will be ignored for most parts, with just small reminder, that one interior minister is not gonna change the approach of 27 goverments. However, I hope Merkel fires him before too long. This at least more realistic than a meteroite strike hitting the CSU convention.

[The Marquis de Leech]

On 7/3/2018 at 4:15 AM, Errant Bard said:

I've heard a political analyst guy once say Germany was sitting on a ticking bomb, with its workforce going massively into retirement, and little to no infrastructure spending, all for the sake of the sacrosanct "no debt" paradigm, meaning soon it would go into crisis, not being able to finance critical areas of its economic structure for lack of maintenance.

I did not want to really believe it, but you seem to confirm the disaster scenario. Is it really that bad? What will Schauble say to Greece in ten years if it is?

Such a disaster would be very easy to avert - Germany (and indeed most governments) can borrow very cheaply if they want to. The operative issue is getting them to borrow in the first place.

[Jo498]

Yes, they are celebrating the "black Zero", i.e. no new debt. Which ist fundamentally stupid economically in times of low interest rates. As for the infrastructure, it depends what you compare it with. I keep forgetting how many kilometres of railroad track have been retired since the pseudo-privatization of the Bundesbahn. The most solid bridges are often a 100 year old, I have read. Now we have two huge messes up projects, the Berlin Airport that was supposed to be finished in 2011 but still is not and is costing about one billion p.a. despite being half-ready... and the hole in the ground Stuttgart where a new underground train station is supposed to be built (one that cannot work well according to many experts because the ground is not well-suited for tunnels, the inclination of the rails would be dangerously steep etc.)

And there are lots of smaller things (schools etc.) as well. The main problem here is that since the 60s, many public buildings were built cheaply. Back then because they were needed quickly, not only directly after the war, but from the late 60s as well. Nowadays because it has to be cheap (because of the black zero) and nobody cares if a building has to be torn down after only 30 years. It is horribly wasteful, if you ask me.

On the other hand, the infrastructure is mostly still quite good, unless you compare it to Switzerland or similar ultra-rich, clean, well-ordered countries.

I don't buy anything about the shrinking workforce. If this was true, wages should be rising quickly, but they don't, they have in fact stagnated for many since quite a while. It is mainly a ploy to keep the reserve army of the un- and underemployed (the exact size is skillfully hidden by stats) large enough and wages (comparably) low. The big retirement bulge is not really threatening before the early 2030s.

I think the larger problems in the next decades will be ecological and "micro-demographic/structural". Like in most of the EU, agriculture is utterly dependent on subsidies but they have not been used to transform it into something ecologically feasible. [In agriculture, as with the railway, parts of the healthcare system and other fields, I think we get the worst of both worlds: quasi-socialist blown up bureaucracies, subsidies on the one hand AND all the wrong incentives of (not really) "free markets" on the other. ]On the contrary, it has become far more destructive in the last decades to soil, aquifers and the fauna (shocking declines of insect and bird varieties and populations) and now we also feel the hotter, drier summers (+ occasional floodings), especially in the East. And we have no good plan at all for keeping up infrastructure in declining rural regions, sometimes it seems hard to keep them populated at all while people crowd upon each other in the large cities, driving rents way up.

 

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Time for more shenanigans. There was so much going on recently, that this one just needs to get updated a bit.

So where to start for the interested but not necessarily informed readers on here. Ah right.

So there was row between a German and a refugee in Chemnitz (Saxony), which resulted in the German dieing of a stab wound. That in turn has lead Neo-Nazis to march there (to be fair, I suspect most did not have to travel too far to get there). During one of their commemorative marches some refugees were chased by a mob. They escaped (fortunately). The video of that scene found its way on to the internet.

Maaßen, the head of the BND (German Intelligence Service), then claimed in an interview with German Tabloid BILD (German SUN if you wil) that the video in question was probably staged. Thus contradicting Merkel among other people. Of course during a congressional hearing he had to backpeddle on that. Now SPD, Greens and the so called left demand him to be fired. Which that Bavarian assclown and interior minister Seehofer doesn'T want. The BND is under the supervision of his ministry. Needless to say, that crazy Horst was really in no hurry to say anything about the incidents in Chemnitz. Afterall, there's a state election happening in Bavaria in october. So this will hopefully be resolved with the dismissal of Maaßen on tuesday. Oh, there was also this other scandal, that he leaked a report to the AfD before its publication to the AfD. It's really inconceivable how a sane person can still stand by Maaßen and back him. So of course the AfD is, and well Seehofer. I am not going to bother to bring up the BND's rich hard right wing history, and their role of succesfully ignoring the right wing terror group NSU.

The AfD marched alongside Neo Nazis and holligans on another march. but as that was as surprising as the sun rising in the east, I will just leave it at that brief mention.

Going back to the Bavarian election, after desperately trying to win back hard right voters who went straight to the AfD instead of sticking around at the light version (the CSU) and in turn just alienating moderates, the CSU has now decided instead of mimicing the AfD it's time to switch into attack mode. Bavarian PM Söder, who has repeated used the term refugee tourism, to describe refugees, and some other jackass from their ranks, calling refugee lawyers as part of the deportation industry in the not so distant past, they are now saying, that the AfD are Nazis, well not really, they still fall short of using that term. Why did they make that turn? As stated above, they have sufficiently alienated moderates in Bavaria that they actually consider voting the Greens this year. So that AfD light is now poling around 33% (to get some perspective, for that party anything usually below 40% of the votes is bad result). Of course this AfD CSU clash has some comic sides to it on its own. I mean, apart from the obvious flip-flops from leading CSU politicians (Söder and Seehofer in particular), I found one AfD line amusing. They are campaigning on Strauß would vote AfD today - I am not sure they are wrong tbh. The CSU ofc claims their pedestal saint FSJ would fight the AfD.

Anyway, goverment building in Bavaria can become pretty interesting. The CSU would actually need a somewhat stronger junior partner to form a goverment. The Greens have ruled out to be there for them, the reasons, the CSU's post anti-refugee AfD light postures. The FDP will probably be too weak to prop them up. And the SPD, ah, no, I am not speaking ill of the dead, even if they don't acknowledge it. They are just further down the road on their way to meaninglessness. Even by Bavarian standards.

Anyway, long story short. THere's still a chance that both of those assclowns Söder and Seehofer will be gone before the end of the year. Seehofer will be on his way to the chopping block after the election anyway, I just hope Söder goes down with him.
 

Why is there no popcorn smiley here?

[Loge]

Latest opinion polls have the CSU at 35 percent: http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm That would have been deemed a disaster not so long ago. However, with the Social Democrats at 11 percent there is o viable alternative. If FDP and Linke make it into the Landtag, there will have to be a three party coalition. If not the CSU can probably form a government with either the SPD or Freie Wähler.

[Luzifer's right hand]

On 9/16/2018 at 12:00 AM, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Time for more shenanigans. There was so much going on recently, that this one just needs to get updated a bit.

So where to start for the interested but not necessarily informed readers on here. Ah right.

So there was row between a German and a refugee in Chemnitz (Saxony), which resulted in the German dieing of a stab wound. That in turn has lead Neo-Nazis to march there (to be fair, I suspect most did not have to travel too far to get there). During one of their commemorative marches some refugees were chased by a mob. They escaped (fortunately). The video of that scene found its way on to the internet.

Maaßen, the head of the BND (German Intelligence Service), then claimed in an interview with German Tabloid BILD (German SUN if you wil) that the video in question was probably staged. Thus contradicting Merkel among other people. Of course during a congressional hearing he had to backpeddle on that. Now SPD, Greens and the so called left demand him to be fired. Which that Bavarian assclown and interior minister Seehofer doesn'T want. The BND is under the supervision of his ministry. Needless to say, that crazy Horst was really in no hurry to say anything about the incidents in Chemnitz. Afterall, there's a state election happening in Bavaria in october. So this will hopefully be resolved with the dismissal of Maaßen on tuesday. Oh, there was also this other scandal, that he leaked a report to the AfD before its publication to the AfD. It's really inconceivable how a sane person can still stand by Maaßen and back him. So of course the AfD is, and well Seehofer. I am not going to bother to bring up the BND's rich hard right wing history, and their role of succesfully ignoring the right wing terror group NSU.

The AfD marched alongside Neo Nazis and holligans on another march. but as that was as surprising as the sun rising in the east, I will just leave it at that brief mention.

Going back to the Bavarian election, after desperately trying to win back hard right voters who went straight to the AfD instead of sticking around at the light version (the CSU) and in turn just alienating moderates, the CSU has now decided instead of mimicing the AfD it's time to switch into attack mode. Bavarian PM Söder, who has repeated used the term refugee tourism, to describe refugees, and some other jackass from their ranks, calling refugee lawyers as part of the deportation industry in the not so distant past, they are now saying, that the AfD are Nazis, well not really, they still fall short of using that term. Why did they make that turn? As stated above, they have sufficiently alienated moderates in Bavaria that they actually consider voting the Greens this year. So that AfD light is now poling around 33% (to get some perspective, for that party anything usually below 40% of the votes is bad result). Of course this AfD CSU clash has some comic sides to it on its own. I mean, apart from the obvious flip-flops from leading CSU politicians (Söder and Seehofer in particular), I found one AfD line amusing. They are campaigning on Strauß would vote AfD today - I am not sure they are wrong tbh. The CSU ofc claims their pedestal saint FSJ would fight the AfD.

Anyway, goverment building in Bavaria can become pretty interesting. The CSU would actually need a somewhat stronger junior partner to form a goverment. The Greens have ruled out to be there for them, the reasons, the CSU's post anti-refugee AfD light postures. The FDP will probably be too weak to prop them up. And the SPD, ah, no, I am not speaking ill of the dead, even if they don't acknowledge it. They are just further down the road on their way to meaninglessness. Even by Bavarian standards.

Anyway, long story short. THere's still a chance that both of those assclowns Söder and Seehofer will be gone before the end of the year. Seehofer will be on his way to the chopping block after the election anyway, I just hope Söder goes down with him.
 

Why is there no popcorn smiley here?

Things might go the Austrian way though.

A CSU /AFD coalition could happen if a majority is possible. The AFD is the party that has the most in common with CSU after all although they can't say that before the election obviously. 

 

Edit: you might coke on your popcorn

[Jo498]

But how long did it take in Austria until the FPÖ became established enough for a coalition with the mainstream Conservatives? More than 10 years, I believe.

Lots of things can happen in a few years but for the next round of elections between now and 2020 or 2021 I do not see AfD - CDU coalitions and when they start, they will start locally, e.g. in Saxony.

[Luzifer's right hand]

1 hour ago, Jo498 said:

But how long did it take in Austria until the FPÖ became established enough for a coalition with the mainstream Conservatives? More than 10 years, I believe.

Lots of things can happen in a few years but for the next round of elections between now and 2020 or 2021 I do not see AfD - CDU coalitions and when they start, they will start locally, e.g. in Saxony.

The CSU is much more right wing than the ÖVP used to be though.

However I must admit I get most of my info from quer which is not the most objective source though.

Back in the day the CSU seemed to be as about as far right as the old Haider FPÖ(which formed the first ÖVP/FPÖ collation in 2000) and even more conservative on LBGT issues. The current FPÖ is much more extreme though but the current ÖVP is a populist neo-con party and the FPÖ has control of the social conservative side of political discussion(our "Lederhosen-Partei"). 

Hopefully I'm wrong though.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

6 hours ago, Wolfgang I said:

Edit: you might coke on your popcorn 

Never did coke. If started doing it now with that amount of insanity going on in politics atm, I'd probably go full iluminati at some point.

On brighter news, rumoredly Merkel is about to dismiss Maaßen - and thus also finally starts pissing back on Seehofer to some extent. The only question atm apparently is, whether Maaßen tries to save some face (for himself and Seehofer) and retires on his own, or if he really needs to get fired.

6 hours ago, Wolfgang I said:

A CSU /AFD coalition could happen if a majority is possible. The AFD is the party that has the most in common with CSU after all although they can't say that before the election obviously.  

And that's probably part of the problem. In theory the party closest to the CSU are still Die Freien Wähler. If the CSU wanted they could'Ve formed a colation with them instead of the FDP the last time they lost their absolute majority. They decided not to, as they felt that would strengthen a political clone/rival, and instead just kept them as cheerleader on the opposition benches, while they governed with the FDP. Which has worked well for them. I am not sure this political calculus will work with the AfD though, as they are much more big mouthed than those schoolboys from Die Freien Wähler.

Oh, btw. the BR has announced who would face off with Söder in the tv debates. Spoiler it's not gonna be Kohnen from the SPD (just put that Bavarian branch out of its misery already). It's gonna be Katharina Schulze (Greens).

So an educated, pretty attractive (not of political value, I know, but it could come in handy on the TV screen nonetheless) young woman, against, well Söder.

[Alarich II]

34 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

It's gonna be Katharina Schulze (Greens).

Actually, it's her co-runner Hartmann. She's too young to be eligible as Bavarian PM.

 

Bavaria is going to be very interesting, especially the question whom the AfD will cannibalize more: Freie Wähler or CSU. Obviously, the CSU will suffer, but if the FW suffer as well, it may put an end to the idea of a coalition with them. And although the CSU is a big tent, it looks like the shift to the right left their left wing exposed. Leaving them open to the Greens who are gnawing at the christian/social base of the CSU, thus consolidating their position as the most important center-left party in Southern Germany. Very interesting times ahead.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

53 minutes ago, Alarich II said:

Actually, it's her co-runner Hartmann. She's too young to be eligible as Bavarian PM.

 

Bavaria is going to be very interesting, especially the question whom the AfD will cannibalize more: Freie Wähler or CSU. Obviously, the CSU will suffer, but if the FW suffer as well, it may put an end to the idea of a coalition with them. And although the CSU is a big tent, it looks like the shift to the right left their left wing exposed. Leaving them open to the Greens who are gnawing at the christian/social base of the CSU, thus consolidating their position as the most important center-left party in Southern Germany. Very interesting times ahead.

Hum, didn't they want to the two top candidates in that debate? And Schulze has been the face of the Green party in Bavaria for a few years now (I really don't know Hartmann). A pity, I think Schulze would've been better at bringing down Söder on quite some levels. I mean this alpha male mansplaining things to her, he definately would've gone there. Not on purpose, but it's just who he is.

I am somewhat curious, whether the BR came up with that Hartmann for Schulze switch by themselves, or whether they had some cues from Söder's office, as they could also see that trainwreck unfolding and have found this is their way out.

As for the polling, I thought the polling was CSU ~35% (give or take), Greens ~17%, and then SPD, AfD~11% or so (AfD being ahead of the SPD in some polls), dimap has the FW also polling around 11% and the FDP and the so called left are struggling with the 5% threshold. (There's still a lot of swing left in those polls - e.g. other polls have the FDP at 6% the Left at 3-4%, and FW at 9%).

So very crude estimations going by the dimap numbers.

So CSU and FW might be enough to form a two party coalition. Very narrowly and unlikely, but still possible depending on the arithmetics on election day, and how much swing there's still left. But in case of emergency they can get the FDP on board, which should be sufficient to rule. If they make it. If not, there's still the SPD waiting and willing to get abused...

Although, as much as I feel some degree of pity for the SPD, I'd find it pretty amusing on some levels, if them and the CSU alone wouldn't be able to get a majority in the Bavarian parliament.

[Alarich II]

2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I am somewhat curious, whether the BR came up with that Hartmann for Schulze switch by themselves, or whether they had some cues from Söder's office, as they could also see that trainwreck unfolding and have found this is their way out.

As I said: Hartmann could theoretically become Bavarian PM, Schulze can't (she's too young, you have to be 40 years old). They basically wanted the two antagonists as contenders for the seat of PM. At least that's the official line-

[Jo498]

Everybody was far more conservative on LGBT until about less than 20 years ago (I am constantly surprised that people older than mid-thirties don't seem to remember this). This is not such a good indicator (and the topic has been "hijacked" at least partially, with the AfD having Weidel in a prominent and pointing all the time to islamic homophobia).

I think the more important parallel with Austria is that the FPÖ arose because the ÖVP and the SPÖ had for decades come to a very peaceful coexistence. I don't think much of the taz these days but they recently had a commentary (probably a guest commentator) concerning both the Wagenknecht initative Aufstehen and the rise of the AfD. I cannot find the link to it now but it was spot on because it said that in the last ca. 15 years TWO positions in the party landscape of Germany have been severely weakened: There is no real conservative party and there is no social democratic party (at least none with a chance to enter the Federal government). The first gap made the AfD possible. The second gap is supposed to be filled by Aufstehen.

The author speaks of the "greenification of most of the mainstream parties. While this is problematic (because the Greens are not really green anymore) it is correct insofar as the mainstream parties all draw their main personnel from the liberal, cosmopolitan, technocrat, urban academically (usually law, humanities or pol science) educated middle/upper middle classes. They largely agree on many things and also agree that these things should not be up for debate, or God forbid, up to vote for/against by the commoner. All have now formed coalitions at least in some Bundesland with various combinations. I doubt that Aufstehen will succeed. But if they don't, the AfD will keep growing because it is the only alternative to the mainstream parties that will form 3-4-party-coalitions, so even more than in the last almost 20 years, NO MATTER what you vote, you will get not only the same policies but the same disgusting bunch of hypocrites in power.

This is of course terrible, because the AfD may not be mostly Nazis, but they certainly are mostly idiots.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

While there's certainly some truth to it, to me it always feels like there's also another factor at play in Austria.

I mgiht be wrong on that, but it always felt like Austria was a weeeee bit less open and honest with themselves and their role during the NS regime, and the somewhat unpleasent truths related to that. You know the over the top mockery of Austrians saying: "Mr. Hitler, never heard of him, wasn't he like that guy from Germany, we were just an occupied country."

And I think the Errinnerungskultur in Germany had served as a protective factor in Germany. And it feels like that effect is wearing off. Thus also the attacks by Höcke and those other Neo-Nazis to put it to bed.

[Jo498]

Sure, the Austrian had the narrative that they were "Hitler's first victims" or as Austrian emigrant Billy Wilder put it, the Austrians somehow convinced the world (and themselves) that Beethoven was Austrian and Hitler German.

Speaking of Austria, here is an interesting interview with former Haider confidante Petzner about the rise of the AfD and the cluelessness of the other German parties.

https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Die-AfD-ist-nicht-nur-eine-Partei-die-AfD-verkoerpert-den-Zeitgeist-4166400.html

[A Horse Named Stranger]

So, Merkel has removed Maaßen from his post as head of the BND... by promoting him.

And the SPD is apparently cool with it, this is beyond pathetic. FFS, you guys discovered your balls and insisted on his dismissal, and now he gets promoted.

[Jo498]

Of course by promoting him.

It was stupid to remove him but that he would not be dismissed in disgrace was pretty sure. If the SPD had balls they would abolish the Verfassungsschutz. The problem is not Maaßen, it's that organisation and every Bundesland has its own in addition, this is beyond ridiculous and a lot of it probably criminal, recalling the NSU and the likely involvement of people from Thuringian and Hessian "Verfassungsschutz".

Getting their will in such an irrelevant matter will not help the SPD, probably on the contrary. They haven't accomplished anything. They balk at trying to have a positive influence in social policies (cheaper rents/flats, better pensions etc.), Scholz with his Goldman crony in the team will not seriously support that tax against Amazon and other evaders, they are only keeping Merkel in power, next stop 10%.

 

[Loge]

And now Kauder is out as chairman of the CDU/CSU in the Bundestag. Merkel's days are numbered.

https://www.dw.com/en/merkel-ally-sent-packing-in-surprising-parliamentary-group-leadership-vote/a-45635982