"Lyra and Jory are with our mother," and The Great Northern Conspiracy

[Lost Melnibonean]

So where the hell are Lyra and Jory? (I asked this two years ago, but the old thread got locked. I'm finally back to this point on my own wheel of time, so I am asking again.)

[ETA: East of Winterfell with Maege, Galbart, Robett, Howland, Hallis, Davos, some unicorns, and a big, black direwolf with green eyes.]

Several weeks before arriving at the Twins for the Red Wedding, Robb dispatched Maege Mormont and Galbart Glover with a detachment of troops to Greywater Watch to prepare an assault on the Ironborn at Moat Cailin with Howland Reed. Maege and Galbart knew of Robb's desire to name Jon as his heir, believing that Bran, Rickon, and Arya were dead and Sansa wed to a Lannister. 

About three months later, we hear from a younger Mormont...

Quote

Jon took a knee. The king frowned at him, and rattled the parchment angrily. "Rise. Tell me, who is Lyanna Mormont?"

"One of Lady Maege's daughters, Sire. The youngest. She was named for my lord father's sister.""

"To curry your lord father's favor, I don't doubt. I know how that game is played. How old is this wretched girl child?"

Jon had to think a moment. "Ten. Or near enough to make no matter. Might I know how she has offended Your Grace?"

Stannis read from the letter. "Bear Island knows no king but the King in the North, whose name is STARK. A girl of ten, you say, and she presumes to scold her lawful king." His close-cropped beard lay like a shadow over his hollow cheeks. "See that you keep these tidings to yourself, Lord Snow. Karhold is with me, that is all the men need know. I will not have your brothers trading tales of how this child spat on me."

"As you command, Sire." Maege Mormont had ridden south with Robb, Jon knew. Her eldest daughter had joined the Young Wolf's host as well. Even if both of them had died, however, Lady Maege had other daughters, some with children of their own. Had they gone with Robb as well? Surely Lady Maege would have left at least one of the older girls behind as castellan. He did not understand why Lyanna should be writing Stannis, and could not help but wonder if the girl's answer might have been different if the letter had been sealed with a direwolf instead of a crowned stag, and signed by Jon Stark, Lord of Winterfell. It is too late for such misgivings. You made your choice.

Jon I, Dance

We know that Dacey went south with Maege and the Young Wolf, and that Lyra and Jorelle went south with Maege. Through Jon's musings, the storyteller suggests to us that Maege left Alysane as castellan when she marched south, and we find out later that Alysane joined Stannis after burning Asha's ships at Deepwood Motte, and that Lyra and Jorelle are still with Maege.

Did Maege return to Bear Island clandestinely, or did Alysane act on her own?

If Maege did not return, how did Lyanna know Jon STARK was the King in the North? (Bran and Rickon were presumed dead, so to what other STARK could she have been referring?.)

If Maege returned to give Alysane the order to burn Asha's ships, did she then leave again with Lyra and Jorelle leaving Lyanna at Bear Island? Or did Maege perhaps remain at Bear Island with Lyra and Jorelle?

And where is Galbart Glover? Again through Jon, the storyteller suggests that he should have gone with Maege to free Deepwood Motte...

Quote

But my fathers bannermen have wives and children to protect,

Jon I, Dance

Galbart is not wed, but his brother's wife and children were captured when Asha seized Deepwood Motte. Or are Maege and Galbart just chillin' in the swamp at Grewater Watch? I just can't believe they sat around for three months with Bolton and Frey marching north, the Ironmen occupying Deepwood Motte, and Bear Island further threatened by the Ironmen. 

ETA

Also about two years ago, I suggested this about the wrongway rangers...

In Jon II, Dance 7 we have Richard Horpe and Justin Massey depart Castle Black, heading south for destination(s) unknown. We see them return in Jon IV, Dance 17, but we are never told where they went. I believe Stannis dispatched them to treat with Houses Umber and Karstark.

Keep in mind that We learn that Stannis has dispatched his Hand to treat with Manderly. The only positive responses he received from the northern lords were from Mors Umber and Arnolf Karstark. So it would make sense to send two captains to treat with those two houses.

Upon their return we learn that Arnolf will fight for Stannis, as will Mors Umber but not Hothor Umber. We also learn that Arnolf is urging Stannis to march on the Deadfort while Ramsay marches on Moat Cailin. We later learn that this was a trap, and we know that Arnolf and Hothor meet with Ramsay at the Dreadfort, apparently to plan it. So Reek I, Dance 12 should precede Jon II, Dance 7 on the actual timeline of events. 

And last year, I asked what Mance and Melisandre were up to when Melisandre convinced Jon to send Mance after Arya...

Apparently, Melisandre wanted Jon to send Mance to rescue his sister in order to gain Jon’s trust, but the especially curious issue here was that Melisandre saw Arya riding north, east of Long Lake, and Mance said he had a ploy in mind, asking for a handful of spearwives to help him, suggesting he knew that he would be going to Winterfell not the eastern shore of Long Lake. Later we found out with the arrival of Alys Karstark at Castle Black, that Mance did not even bother to look for Arya, and Jon began to suspect that Melisandre had some other task for Mance. He ended up thinking about Melisandre’s secret agenda at least twice more.

Disguised as Abel, an echo of Mance’s hero, Bael the Bard, the Mance wanted to know how Theon captured Winterfell. Clearly, Mance was attempting to find some way for Stannis to capture Winterfell. He also wanted Theon to show him the crypts. While Mance was apparently unable to find some way for Stannis to capture Winterfell by some trick, his spearwives began murdering men to fan the flames of animosity between House Frey and the Northmen, especially House Manderly. Presumably, Mance intended to hide in the crypts as Bael had done.

But why was Mance so eager, desperate even, to help the presumed Arya to escape? He did not seem to care about Theon, but he needed Theon to get the presumed Arya out. Did he believe that he had stumbled upon Arya Stark at Winterfell, and that he needed to get her out of the castle to fulfill Melisandre’s vision to foster good relations with Jon and to promote fidelity between the Free Folk and the North? Is that why he apparently sacrificed himself to free the presumed Arya? Theon was quite convinced that Abel would be caught and flayed by Ramsay, and that fate was apparently confirmed in the pink letter

Spoiler

and in the Theon spoiler chapter from Winds, the events of which were confirmed to have occurred before Jon received the pink letter,

and foreshadowed in The Dornishman's Wife. 

Interestingly, one of the spearwives, Rowan, seemed to hold Theon in great contempt. This alone would not have been suspect, but she also took great umbrage at Theon’s use of House Stark’s words, suggesting she was actually a daughter of the North rather than a native of the Free Folk, although there did seem to be a grudging respect, or awe, for House Stark among the Free Folk. Rowan, tall and skinny, too lean and leathery to be called pretty, but attractive with auburn hair, could very well have been the daughter Mors lost during a wilding raid. 

Perhaps Mance stoped at Last Hearth with Rowan on his way to Winterfell. Perhaps Rowan convinced her father that he should not be demanding Mance’s skull for a drinking cup after all. 

Mors later arrived at Winterfell. He did not attack, but he started blowing war horns, presumably to instill fear in the defenders, but possibly to alert agents on the inside, and notice that was precisely when Mance decided it was time to bug out.

Now about that Great Northern Conspiracy...

King Robb Stark arrives at the Twins about three weeks to one month before the first day of the first moon of the 300th year since Aegon’s Conquest…

If we assume that Robb intended to march three days after the wedding, and that Moat Cailin was at least 500 miles from the Twins, we can assume that Robb expected to be in position to attack Moat Cailin within one month of the red wedding.

At this time, Howland Reed is at Greywater Watch, waiting to guide Robb through the Neck to recapture Moat Cailin and to reopen the North to Robb’s host. It is possible, even likely, that Hallis Mollen and a small detachment of men from Winterfell are there as well, with the bones of Eddard Stark.

Lord Roose Bolton is at the Twins with Robb. His natural son Ramsay Snow is at the Dreadfort, awaiting Robb’s judgment. We should assume that Jonelle Cerwyn is under Roose’s protection since her father told Robb that she would accompany him south, and since he was mortally wounded fighting under Roose’s command at the Battle of the Green Fork. Ramsay has claimed Hornwood by right of a forced marriage to the Late Lord Halys’s widow, the late Lady Donella Manderly. Lady Barbrey Dustin is at Barrowton. She is Roose’s goodsister by his previous marriage. Lord Rodrik Ryswell is at the Rills. Rodrik’s surviving daughter is Lady Barbrey Dustin. His other daughter was Lord Roose Bolton’s second wife. Rodrik’s three sons are with him at the Rills. The only surviving son of Lord Rickard Karstark, who was executed by Robb at Riverrun, Harrion Karstark is held captive by Randyll Tarly at Maidenpool. His sister Alys remains at the Twins with her uncle, Arnolf and his sons and grandsons. The young Lady Eddara Tallhart is held captive by Dagmer Cleftjaw at Torrhen’s Square. Her aunt Berena Hornwood and Berena’s son and daughter are also held captive at Torrhen’s Square.

Bolton has come to blows with Manderly over the Hornwood succession issue.

Lord Wyman Manderly is at White Harbor. His eldest son Wylis is held captive by Gregor Clegane at Harrenhal. Wylis’s wife, Leona Woolfield, and their two daughters are at White Harbor. Wyman’s younger son Wendel will soon be slain at the red wedding. Lady Lyessa Flint is at Widow’s Watch. She is a Manderly ally. Her son Robin is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be slain at the red wedding. Lord Ondrew Locke is at Oldcastle. He is a Manderly ally. Donnell Locke, who appears to be Ondrew’s son, is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be killed at the red wedding. Galbart Glover, Master of Deepwood Motte is at Greywater Watch, waiting for Robb. Galbart’s brother Robett is at White Harbor, presumably waiting to join Robb’s host after it recaptures Moat Cailin. Robett’s wife, Sybelle Locke, and their two children are held captive at Deepwood Motte by Asha Greyjoy. Also held captive at Deepwood Motte is Glover’s ward, Larence Snow, natural son of the late Lord Halys Hornwood. A sister, cousin or aunt of Galbart was Jorah Mormont’s first wife. Lady Maege Mormont of Bear Island is with Galbart at Greywater Watch, waiting for Robb. Her Daughter Dacey is with Robb. She will soon be slain at the red wedding. Maege’s daughters Lyra and Jorelle are with Maege. Maege’s daughter Alysanne is at Bear Island with her daughter, son, and youngest sister, Lyanna. Manderly and Umber have been working together to build a fleet. The Greatjon, Lord Jon Umber is with Robb at the Twins. He will soon be imprisoned after the red wedding. His son, the Smalljon, will soon be killed during the red wedding. His uncles Mors and Hoster are at Last Hearth.

We know that some Riverlanders and, presumably, some Northmen escape the red wedding, so I think we can assume that some Northmen may have tried to go up the causeway. Within a couple of weeks, then, news of the red wedding would have reached Howland, Maege, and Galbart at Greywater Watch. We should assume that word has already spread to the principal houses of the north by raven, and that within a month of the new year, everyone of consequence should know of the red wedding. Anybody north of the Neck with half a brain should be able to determine, or at least suspect, that Roose and Walder conspired with Tywin Lannister to cast Robb down.

So, on one side we have Bolton, Dustin, Ryswell, and Karstark, with soft support from Cerwyn, Hornwood, and Tallhart. On the other side we have Manderly, Flint, and Locke, with Glover, Mormont, and possibly, Umber. At this point, I don’t see any of these great houses looking to garner material support from the crannogmen, the mountain clans, or the Skagossons. And due to operation security, nobody north of the Neck should know that Maege and Galbart are at Greywater Watch.

Although we never encounter him directly in the story, we are led to believe that Howland is very loyal to House Stark and a close follower of the Old Gods, and Frey is an enemy of the crannogmen, so, we can assume that Howland will seek to oppose Bolton and Frey. The key to linking Greywater Watch and White Harbor is Galbart. Galbart knows that Robett is in White Harbor.

So, does Galbart reach out to his brother at White Harbor? It would take Galbart about two weeks to reach White Harbor from the Neck. Presumably, Wyman brings Robett into his plan. If Galbart goes to White Harbor, Robett surely tells Galbart what Wyman is up to. Does Maege go with Galbart to White Harbor? Some have suggested that Manderly uses Galbart and Maege as envoys, but I don’t think either would be so willing to do this while the Ironmen occupy Deepwood Motte and hold Glovers captive. Wyman appears to know who is on his side, and we will see evidence at Barrowton and Winterfell to suggest that Wyman courts other prominent Northmen on his own. Galbart must be preoccupied with his own seat, and Maege also has to be concerned about the state of affairs in the northwest. But if they do return to the northwest, why do they remain covert?

At the other end of the Kingsroad, we have Mance Rayder attacking Castle Black and King Stannis Baratheon arriving to break the siege. A couple of weeks later, and Jon Snow is elected Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch. Over the next few weeks, Karstark feigns fealty to Stannis, (but the newly legitimized Ramsay Bolton hosts Arnolf Karstark, who is scheming to seize Karhold from Harrion, and Hother Umber at the Dreadfort), and Stannis burns the presumed Mance. Assuming Galbart and Maege have gone to White Harbor, Maege will now be able to contact Bear Island by raven. Roose is not yet a threat to Bear Island, and given Lyanna’s response to Stannis, I think we can assume that Maege tells her daughters not to pay homage to Stannis. Maege would also know of Rickon's journey to Skagos. 

And then, Davos arrives in White Harbor. By this time, news of the red wedding and Stannis breaking the wildings at the Wall would have spread throughout the North. The soon-to-be-pies are already in White Harbor threatening Wyman Manderly, and the commonly held view is that Wyman would join Bolton and Frey. A wedding has been agreed to between Manderly and Frey, and Gregor Clegane’s men still hold Wylis Manderly hostage at Harrenhal. Wyman has built the fleet with Umber, and he is raising men. Robett is already in the city, and he has been trying to raise men too (presumably to take back Deepwood Motte from the Ironmen, otherwise the Freys surely would have demanded his head for treason), but unsuccessfully.

Meanwhile, Dustin and Ryswell have already burned the remaining ships of the Iron Fleet on the Fever River, and Ramsay and Hothor are already riding south with Hornwood and Cerwyn to join them at Moat Cailin. Some remaining Tallhart men will join Bolton too, but the Tallhartlings and Berena are still held captive by Dagmar Cleftjaw at Torrhen’s Square.

Back at Castle Black, Mors has pledged to aid Stannis so long as he is not forced to fight Hothor, and Arnolf has encouraged Stannis to attack the Dreadfort, apparently, so he and Bolton can crush Stannis outside the walls. Even without knowing of Arnolf’s treachery yet, Jon counsels Stannis to avoid the possible trap, and to liberate Deepwood Motte instead, winning the mountain clans to his cause on the way. Now, keep in mind that Mormont should not know about this due to operation security, but it will take time, perhaps two months, for Stannis to court the mountain clans and to liberate Deepwood Motte.

About two weeks later, Davos is presumably executed by Manderly at White Harbor. And Jaime Lannister has Ronnet Connington deliver Wylis to Maidenpool and on to White Harbor.

Nearly four months after the Red Wedding, Reek helps Ramsay liberate Moat Cailin, and Roose returns to the North, marching to Barrowton. Upon his arrival, he summons all leal lords to Barrowton to celebrate the wedding of Arya Stark and Ramsay Bolton. 

Davos is then dispatched to Skagos. The travel time by ship should take less than two weeks. So, unless he encounters difficulty, Davos could return to White Harbor with Rickon after about a month or so.

By the time Manderly arrives at Barrowton, or shortly thereafter, it is possible that Davos has returned from Skagos with Rickon, or at least, that Davos has sent word back to White Harbor that he has Rickon.

Perhaps, at this time, Maege sends a bird from White Harbor to Bear Island and instructs Alysanne to liberate Deepwood Motte.

Perhaps also, Galbart, Robett, Maege, Howland, and Hallis Mollen are with a second host of Northmen and Davos and Rickon.

Stannis takes Deepwood Motte shortly thereafter, and within a week or so, Jon agrees to send Mance after his presumed sister. Roose learns that Stannis has left the Wall, and he realizes that he should seize Winterfell to lure Stannis into attacking him there to be trapped by Arnolf Karstark. About three weeks later, Ramsay weds the presumed Arya at Winterfell, and then Stannis finally departs from Deepwood Motte. Up north, Selyse, Tycho Nestoris, and Alys Karstark arrive at Castle Black.

A little more than six months have passed since the red wedding by the time Stannis arrives at the crofter’s village near Winterfell.

In the meantime, the Northmen with Roose are becoming concerned over Ramsay’s treatment of the presumed Arya.

Since Barrowton, Roose has known that he cannot trust Cerwyn and Tallhart and, presumably, Hornwood.

Roose knows that Wyman plots betrayal, and he suspects that Hothor Umber may stand with Wyman. Then, we see Hothor talking quietly with Harwood Stout, who is sworn to Dustin.

The George gives us a hint as to the coup-plotting Wyman might be about with the snowy lords described by Reek to include Wyman Manderly, Harwood Stout, Barbrey Dustin, and Hother Umber. 

Perhaps most telling is that Mors has the future of House Umber outside the walls on Stannis's side (green boys), while Hothor has it's past inside with Bolton and Frey (greybeards). 

Barbrey has Reek take her into the crypts, presumably to look up upon the Stark tombs, but she takes note of the missing swords that Bran et al. took from the crypts. This suggests that Barbrey could have been looking to substantiate whether Wyman already has Rickon.

Arnolf arrives at the crofter’s village less than two weeks after Stannis. And that’s when the mysterious murders begin at Winterfell. Within a few days, Mors Umber arrives, and immediately after Mors sounds his horns, Abel’s washerwomen compel Theon to meet with Mance Rayder, who has been asking about the crypts. The tension between Frey and Mandery boils over the next day, and Theon and Jeyne escape. Three days later, Mors takes them, along with Tycho and Asha’s men from Deepwood Motte to Stannis’s camp. In the Theon spoiler chapter,

Spoiler

we see Stannis learn of the Karstark plot, and we see that he intends to use the terrain to his advantage. We also see that he might be planning a ruse by faking his death.

Assuming Ramsay is the author of the so called pink letter, we can assume that Ramsay believes that Stannis is dead, and that Stannis’s host has been defeated. Ramsay has recovered or has been given Lightbringer, and he has beheaded and flayed Abel’s washerwomen. He has stuck Mance in a crow cage, but he may have left Mance alive. He believes that Stannis has sent the presumed Arya and Reek to Castle Black, and he wants them returned. He must know that Jon will recognize Jeyne Pool, and Theon is still a potentially valuable hostage. But we know that Stannis had no intention of sending Theon anywhere, which further suggests that Stannis has fooled Ramsay. Ramsay demands Selyse, Shireen, and Melisandre, as well as Mance Rayder’s presumed son be turned over to him. Otherwise, he threatens to march on Castle Black. Ramsay has Jon in a tight spot since Jon has meddled in the affairs of the Seven Kingdoms, and Jon attempts to marshal the wildings, but of course, Brutus, err... Bowen Marsh has had enough.

How did the ruse at the crofter’s village play out?

Has Ramsay killed Roose? Or is Roose still calling the shots?

Will the snowy lords and their snowy sentinels cast Ramsay down and allow Stannis to enter Winterfell?

Are Galbart, Maege, Howland, and Hallis on the other side of Winterfell with Davos and Rickon?

Will Selyse and Melisandre despair and burn Shireen?

How long will Jon Snow be out of commission?

[Scorpion92]

All credits go to @pobeb

Read about the descriptions of she-bears and septas in High septon's employ. I think there are too many similarities to dismiss it.

[Adam Yozza]

I believe Alysanne acted independently of Maege when she burned the IB ships and joined Stannis. When Lyanna sent that message to Stannis she wasn't reffering to any specific Stark. She was basically telling him that they would kneel to no one BUT a Stark.

With this in mind I think Maege and Galbart are at Greywater Watch still, with Maege's other daughters, their contingent of men and whatever men escaped the RW and didn't get rounded up into Bolton's force (plus maybe Reynald Westerling, but that's unlikely regardless of how much it makes sense), biding their time. It's possible that they've been in contact with Wyman and Robett and are all working together to weaken the Bolton's and get an army together for Rickon and Stannis. Hell, with that in mind, Maege could have been in contact with Alysanne and Lyanna, and Lyanna's message was actually her proclaiming loyalty to Rickon.

[Adam Yozza]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Galbert is not wed, but his brother's wife and children were captured when Asha seized Deepwood Motte. Or are Maege and Galbert just chillin' in the swamp at Grewater Watch? I just can't believe they sat around for three months with Bolton and Frey marching north, the Ironmen occupying Deepwood Motte, and Bear Island further threatened by the Ironmen. 

What else could they do? Ironborn controlled the Moat and then the Bolton's did. The only way they can get North is to seize the Moat and that can only be done with perfect timing at this point. They can't use ships to get around to Bear Island and Deepwood (Because they have none) and they can't just march there (because the Bolton's would find them), so staying at Greywater while liaising with Manderly and Robett (maybe the other Mormonts and the Umber's too)

Edit: Besides, the Crannogmen carried out devastating raids on both the Ironborn and the Frey-Bolton force heading north. Enough so that Roose hid out as a man at arms in the middle of his army so as to avoid assassination attempts. Who's to say Maege, Galbart and their men haven't joined in on this little game of hunt the flayed man?

[kissdbyfire]

10 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

I believe Alysanne acted independently of Maege when she burned the IB ships and joined Stannis. When Lyanna sent that message to Stannis she wasn't reffering to any specific Stark. She was basically telling him that they would kneel to no one BUT a Stark.

With this in mind I think Maege and Galbart are at Greywater Watch still, with Maege's other daughters, their contingent of men and whatever men escaped the RW and didn't get rounded up into Bolton's force (plus maybe Reynald Westerling, but that's unlikely regardless of how much it makes sense), biding their time. It's possible that they've been in contact with Wyman and Robett and are all working together to weaken the Bolton's and get an army together for Rickon and Stannis. Hell, with that in mind, Maege could have been in contact with Alysanne and Lyanna, and Lyanna's message was actually her proclaiming loyalty to Rickon.

@Lost Melnibonean, I've been wondering about Lyra and Jory for a long time but I hadn't thought about them recently. I remember reading somewhere that Jory and Lyra were with Maege and Dacey all along. I can't remember where I read it, tough (it was not Alysane's comment) I'll look around and if I find anything I'll link it here. For some reason I recall the source as reliable?

I'm really curious to know more about them, maybe Martin dropped their names in ADwD because they'll be a part of something interesting. Or maybe he just thought it was cool to have a little girl diss Stannis and for that to happen he had to get rid of the two older Mormonts, and thus "they're with mum". 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Adam Yozza said:

With this in mind I think Maege and Galbart are at Greywater Watch still, with Maege's other daughters, their contingent of men and whatever men escaped the RW and didn't get rounded up into Bolton's force (plus maybe Reynald Westerling, but that's unlikely regardless of how much it makes sense), biding their time. It's possible that they've been in contact with Wyman and Robett and are all working together to weaken the Bolton's and get an army together for Rickon and Stannis. Hell, with that in mind, Maege could have been in contact with Alysanne and Lyanna, and Lyanna's message was actually her proclaiming loyalty to Rickon.

Do you really think that Galbart Glover and Maege Mormont could have remained at Greywater Watch for three to six months with their own houses in such peril? 

If Maege and Galbart have been at Greywater Watch this whole time, they are not likely in communication with the rest of world...

Quote

"We have no knights at Greywater. No master-at-arms, and no maester."

"Who keeps your ravens?"

She smiled. "Ravens can't find Greywater Watch, no more than our enemies can."

"Why not?"

"Because it moves," she told him.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 2/3/2017 at 8:34 PM, kissdbyfire said:

@Lost Melnibonean, I've been wondering about Lyra and Jory for a long time but I hadn't thought about them recently. I remember reading somewhere that Jory and Lyra were with Maege and Dacey all along. I can't remember where I read it, tough (it was not Alysane's comment) I'll look around and if I find anything I'll link it here. For some reason I recall the source as reliable?

I'm really curious to know more about them, maybe Martin dropped their names in ADwD because they'll be a part of something interesting. Or maybe he just thought it was cool to have a little girl diss Stannis and for that to happen he had to get rid of the two older Mormonts, and thus "they're with mum". 

The George dropped their names in Dance cause Jor-El and Lara are Superman's mother and father.

[Free Northman Reborn]

I think people overestimate the time that has passed since the Red Wedding. Feast and Dance were essentially one book, covering its immediate aftermath.

Roose has only just arrived back in the North, fresh from doing the dastardly deed.

The fact that we have been waiting almost two decades to read just the aftermath is not the characters fault.

 

[Adam Yozza]

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Do you really think that Galbart Glover and Maege Mormont could have remained at Greywater Watch for three to six months with their own houses in such peril? 

If Maege and Galbart have been at Greywater Watch this whole time, they are not likely in communication with the rest of world...

 

If they had no way to get back then yes, what other choice would they have? They can't go by land because Roose would find them on the way and probably kill/arrest them. They also can't go by sea because they have no ships available. Which leaves them stuck in the Neck.

By raven yes, but the Reed's can bypass Moat Cailin. It would be easy to send some men to White Harbour to co-ordinate with Wyman. But I might be wrong. Galbart, Maege and Howland might be readying their troops to declare for King Jon, while Wyman and Robett (and maybe others) who don't know about Robb's will are working to rescue and restore Rickon into Winterfell.

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I think people overestimate the time that has passed since the Red Wedding. Feast and Dance were essentially one book, covering its immediate aftermath.

Roose has only just arrived back in the North, fresh from doing the dastardly deed.

The fact that we have been waiting almost two decades to read just the aftermath is not the characters fault.

 

Are you familiar with this? 

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/84563-most-precise-asoiaf-timeline-in-existence/

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

If they had no way to get back then yes, what other choice would they have? They can't go by land because Roose would find them on the way and probably kill/arrest them. They also can't go by sea because they have no ships available. Which leaves them stuck in the Neck.

By raven yes, but the Reed's can bypass Moat Cailin. It would be easy to send some men to White Harbour to co-ordinate with Wyman. But I might be wrong. Galbart, Maege and Howland might be readying their troops to declare for King Jon, while Wyman and Robett (and maybe others) who don't know about Robb's will are working to rescue and restore Rickon into Winterfell.

Not by raven. As noted upthread, if Maege and Galbart have been at Greywater Watch this whole time, they are not likely in communication with the rest of world...

Quote

"We have no knights at Greywater. No master-at-arms, and no maester."

"Who keeps your ravens?"

She smiled. "Ravens can't find Greywater Watch, no more than our enemies can."

"Why not?"

"Because it moves," she told him.

If "t would be easy to send some men to White Harbour to co-ordinate with Wyman," then why couldn't Galbart and Maege slip out of Greywater and make for Deepwood Motte and Bear Island? 

What troops would "Galbart, Maege and Howland [ ] be readying [ ] to declare for King Jon?" 

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Are you familiar with this? 

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/84563-most-precise-asoiaf-timeline-in-existence/

Yes. Thats not a long time for them to be missing and working on a plan. Especially given the long travel times in Westeros.

 It just feels long because of the 20 year wait.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Yes. Thats not a long time for them to be missing and working on a plan. Especially given the long travel times in Westeros.

 It just feels long because of the 20 year wait.

It's only been 17 years (I have only been waiting for 6, and I have to admit that without the wait I never would have developed such a thorough application for what the storyteller is doing. It's timE though!) 

[Clegane'sPup]

19 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Did Maege return to Bear Island clandestinely, or did Alysane act on her own?

If Maege did not return, how did Lyanna know Jon STARK was the King in the North? (Bran and Rickon were presumed dead, so to what other STARK could she have been referring?.)

If Maege returned to give Alysane the order to burn Asha's ships, did she then leave again with Lyra and Jorelle leaving Lyanna at Bear Island? Or did Maege perhaps remain at Bear Island with Lyra and Jorelle?

And where is Galbert Glover? Again through Jon, the storyteller suggests that he should have gone with Maege to free Deepwood Motte...

This is something that interested me for a long time. I read your archived thread and the remarks. Thanks.

 

What confuses me is why Alysane decided to take men using the guise of a gaggle of fishing sloops to Deepwood. Surely she had to have some Intel from somewhere, didn’t she? Stannis’ letter to Jon said:

Quote

And we had other help, unexpected but most welcome, from a daughter of Bear Island. Alysane Mormont, whose men name her the She-Bear, hid fighters inside a gaggle of fishing sloops and took the ironmen unawares where they lay off the strand. Greyjoy's longships are burned or taken, her crews slain or surrendered.

If Maege & Galbart got to Greywater they could have very well have been able to leave. This is what Robb says:

My lord, I need two of your longships to sail around the Cape of Eagles and up the Neck to Greywater Watch."

Quote

 

Lord Jason hesitated. "A dozen streams drain the wetwood, all shallow, silty, and uncharted. I would not even call them rivers. The channels are ever drifting and changing. There are endless sandbars, deadfalls, and tangles of rotting trees. And Greywater Watch moves. How are my ships to find it?"

"Go upriver flying my banner. The crannogmen will find you. I want two ships to double the chances of my message reaching Howland Reed. Lady Maege shall go on one, Galbart on the second." He turned to the two he'd named. "You'll carry letters for those lords of mine who remain in the north, but all the commands within will be false, in case you have the misfortune to be taken. If that happens, you must tell them that you were sailing for the north. Back to Bear Island, or for the Stony Shore."

 

Above Robb referring to the Iron Born threat. The Red Wedding happened. Roose sent word to Ramsey to use Theon to clear Moat Calin of the IB who were penned down by crannogmen.  Robb’s plan didn’t work out, but the bolded part below speaks of guides.

Quote

 

"There are ways through the Neck that are not on any map, Uncle. Ways known only to the crannogmen—narrow trails between the bogs, and wet roads through the reeds that only boats can follow." He turned to his two messengers. "Tell Howland Reed that he is to send guides to me, two days after I have started up the causeway. To the center battle, where my own standard flies. Three hosts will leave the Twins, but only two will reach Moat Cailin. Mine own battle will melt away into the Neck, to reemerge on the Fever. If we move swiftly once my uncle's wed, we can all be in position by year's end. We will fall upon the Moat from three sides on the first day of the new century [year 300], as the ironmen are waking with hammers beating at their heads from the mead they'll quaff the night before."

"I like this plan," said the Greatjon. "I like it well."

 

Wherever Maege is she has Lyra & Jory with her. I mean someone in this story must be a reliable source. Alysane tells Asha in The King’s Prize that Lyanna is back on Bear Island. “Lyra and Jory are with our mother. Dacey was murdered."  "The Red Wedding."

At the time Stannis received the little Mormont refusal the Deepwood plan between Jon & Stannis had not been discussed. Yet somehow Alysane ends up at Deepwood. Something isn’t adding up or I am truly denser than I thought.

Robb’s statement to Galbart & Maege:  "You'll carry letters for those lords of mine who remain in the north, but all the commands within will be false, in case you have the misfortune to be taken.

So, what were the true commands? "Tell Howland Reed that he is to send guides to me, two days after I have started up the causeway. We will fall upon the Moat from three sides on the first day of the new century [year 300].

My head is spinning around like that girl in the old Exorcist movie. My guess is that Maege and her daughters and Galbart are chillin at Greywater Watch eating lizard lion soup and fire roasted frog legs and Howland is using magics he learned from the Greenmen to communicate with Stark loyalists.

I’ll be back after my head stops spinning. Again, thanks for the topic.

[Nevets]

2 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Wherever Maege is she has Lyra & Jory with her. I mean someone in this story must be a reliable source. Alysane tells Asha in The King’s Prize that Lyanna is back on Bear Island. “Lyra and Jory are with our mother. Dacey was murdered."  "The Red Wedding."

 

At the time Stannis received the little Mormont refusal the Deepwood plan between Jon & Stannis had not been discussed. Yet somehow Alysane ends up at Deepwood. Something isn’t adding up or I am truly denser than I thought.

Stannis spent several weeks gathering support from the mountain clansmen for his attack on Deepwood Motte.  I would expect there are lines of communication between them and Bear Island so that the Bear Islanders could learn of the attack and help by destroying the Ironborn fleet

My guess is that the letter from Lyanna is simply saying that Bear Island recognizes the Starks as rulers of the North, although I have to admit that the wording is confusing. 

Howland Reed has probably not attacked the Boltons and Freys because he lacks the strength to attack them openly.  Also, the area of the North next to the Neck is controlled by the Ryswells and Dustins, who are allied with Roose Bolton (so far as we know).

[Adam Yozza]

On 04/02/2017 at 2:48 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Not by raven. As noted upthread, if Maege and Galbart have been at Greywater Watch this whole time, they are not likely in communication with the rest of world...

I said 'By raven, yes' meaning 'Yes, you are right, they can't use raven to communicate with everyone else'; although I admit I find it hard to believe that the Reed's have no way of sending and receiving messages.

On 04/02/2017 at 2:48 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Not by raven. As noted upthread, if Maege and Galbart have been at Greywater Watch this whole time, they are not likely in communication with the rest of world...

If "t would be easy to send some men to White Harbour to co-ordinate with Wyman," then why couldn't Galbart and Maege slip out of Greywater and make for Deepwood Motte and Bear Island? 

What troops would "Galbart, Maege and Howland [ ] be readying [ ] to declare for King Jon?" 

They could slip out of the Neck easily enough. Robb's plan to use the Reed's to flank Moat Cailin shows that if the Crannogmen guide you, you can bypass MC. However getting past MC with a group of armed men and then traveling the length of the North while in open defiance against the Bolton's is both stupid and infeasible. Roose's men would have found and either killed or arrested them or, at the very least, forced them to go to Winterfell and swear fealty to Bolton. 

Sending a couple of nobody Crannog's to the much closer White Harbour would have been much easier. Nobody would have paid them any attention and it's unlikely that they'd have been bothered.

Maege and Galbart's own small contingent's, whatever Crannog's Howland has and potentially some survivors from the RW. It's possible that they fled north and Reed's guys escorted them back to Greywater.

[Lost Melnibonean]

13 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

They could slip out of the Neck easily enough. Robb's plan to use the Reed's to flank Moat Cailin shows that if the Crannogmen guide you, you can bypass MC. However getting past MC with a group of armed men and then traveling the length of the North while in open defiance against the Bolton's is both stupid and infeasible. Roose's men would have found and either killed or arrested them or, at the very least, forced them to go to Winterfell and swear fealty to Bolton. 

Sending a couple of nobody Crannog's to the much closer White Harbour would have been much easier. Nobody would have paid them any attention and it's unlikely that they'd have been bothered.

Maege and Galbart's own small contingent's, whatever Crannog's Howland has and potentially some survivors from the RW. It's possible that they fled north and Reed's guys escorted them back to Greywater.

So you're suggesting that Howland Reed sent his frog eaters out into Frey lands to collect men who fled the red wedding? Even if they did, what would be the yield? A few score? 

How many men did Galbart and Maege take with them into the neck? A score? Two score? I would think that they might have have taken Mallister's longships back out to sea and round Cape Kraken to home. But if that was considered too dangerous, I don't see why 20 to 40 men couldn't have crossed the Barrowlands and the Wolfswood to get home. Perhaps the best option would have been a combination--to take the longships out the Saltspear, then up one of those presumably navigable rivers into the Rills, and then overland through the Wolfswood. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

Look, guys, I think you are not analysing this situation correctly.

It seems it's been about 9 months since the Red Wedding. Roose only got back in the North about 6 months thereafter (I checked the detailed timeline yesterday but may already be off by a couple of months). It makes no matter.

The point is, Howland Reed can likely raise at least 2000 crannogmen. But what is he going to do with them if the North is still ruled by the Boltons, and the Iron Throne still supports House Bolton? Furthermore, until recently, Lord Manderly's son was still a hostage of the Lannisters, and even as we speak, the Greatjon and others are still hostages of the Freys.

Any conspiracy being hatched at Greywater Watch would not be ready to spring into action until the various pieces fall into place. A critical step was the release of Wyllis Manderly. A second would be the freeing of the remaining Northern hostages in the Riverlands - particularly the Greatjon.

Next would be a gathering together of the loyalist Northern Houses strength, and waiting for the Boltons to be in a vulnerable position. Which means, not secure behind the 100 foot walls of Winterfell, but perhaps marching from one castle to another, and open to attack.

I expect the crannogmen to be involved in the freeing of the Greatjon as he is being transported from the Twins to wherever Jaime sent him (I can't remember where exactly). That will be the next part of the conspiracy falling into place.

Before then, any attempt to engage the Bolton alliance head on would just result in further losses to the Northern forces. In short, it is perfectly reasonable that Maege and Gallbart are biding their time at Greywater Watch.

[Clegane'sPup]

On 2/3/2017 at 5:53 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

If Maege did not return, how did Lyanna know Jon STARK was the King in the North? (Bran and Rickon were presumed dead, so to what other STARK could she have been referring?.)

Lyanna could have been referring to Bran Stark.

I’ve had some thoughts about Lyanna’s refusal letter to Stannis and why the northern mountain clans so readily joined Stannis.

One such thought is; a cripple boy riding in a basket on a gentle giants back, a direwolf and two crannog children walking through the north heading toward the Wall who happens to be aided by a man in a cave who Bran assumes is a Liddle.

Har! Although men don’t name it such they do like to gossip and tell tales! The man that helped Bran & companions was checking out rumors that Eddard’s cripple son, King Robb’s brother is traveling about in the north. Once the man verified the gossip he spread the word Brandon Stark lives.

For conversational purposes; How would the clans communicate with Bear Island? It can’t be by raven, can it? I know there is raven communication between the Wall and Bear Island, but do the various clan chieftains use ravens? It’s not clear.

Jon tells Stannis "I can find another wet nurse. If there's none amongst the wildlings, I will send to the mountain clans."     When the Flint and Norrey showed up at the Wall for the wedding they each brought a wet nurse.    It’s a bit of a stretch but it appears the clan chieftains use ravens or Jon had sent out messages via riders.    If Jon sent out riders to the chieftains, the only way the chieftains could send messages to Bear Island would be boat?

 

On 2/3/2017 at 5:53 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Did Maege return to Bear Island clandestinely, or did Alysane act on her own?

I would think that fishing sloops would be rather small in comparison to the four Iron Born ships that Asha has at her disposal. What is rattling in my mind is why Alysanne would undertake a mission to go to Deepwood.

I’m kinda sorta being a facetious on this part; Alysanne woke up one morning, decided to go burn IB ships so that the IB couldn’t retreat from Deepwood via ship? She thinks, “I’ll strand them there. Burn their ships and head back home.”  No, no, no dag nabbit there has to be a reason she did what she did because I dunna believe in happenstance.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Look, guys, I think you are not analysing this situation correctly.

It seems it's been about 9 months since the Red Wedding. Roose only got back in the North about 6 months thereafter (I checked the detailed timeline yesterday but may already be off by a couple of months). It makes no matter.

The point is, Howland Reed can likely raise at least 2000 crannogmen. But what is he going to do with them if the North is still ruled by the Boltons, and the Iron Throne still supports House Bolton? Furthermore, until recently, Lord Manderly's son was still a hostage of the Lannisters, and even as we speak, the Greatjon and others are still hostages of the Freys.

Any conspiracy being hatched at Greywater Watch would not be ready to spring into action until the various pieces fall into place. A critical step was the release of Wyllis Manderly. A second would be the freeing of the remaining Northern hostages in the Riverlands - particularly the Greatjon.

Next would be a gathering together of the loyalist Northern Houses strength, and waiting for the Boltons to be in a vulnerable position. Which means, not secure behind the 100 foot walls of Winterfell, but perhaps marching from one castle to another, and open to attack.

I expect the crannogmen to be involved in the freeing of the Greatjon as he is being transported from the Twins to wherever Jaime sent him (I can't remember where exactly). That will be the next part of the conspiracy falling into place.

Before then, any attempt to engage the Bolton alliance head on would just result in further losses to the Northern forces. In short, it is perfectly reasonable that Maege and Gallbart are biding their time at Greywater Watch.

I don't believe it is reasonable to leave their families, smallfolk and lands abandoned to occupation and the threat of additional raiding from Ironmen. After the red wedding, it was the duty of both Galbart and Maege to return to their homes and secure their respective domains.