Jump to content

"Lyra and Jory are with our mother," and The Great Northern Conspiracy


Lost Melnibonean

Recommended Posts

Wow, I never noticed that Stannis only offered to restore Deepwood Motte to House Glover...

Quote

Davos eyed the stranger warily. The "please" confused him. Men about to lose their heads and hands were not oft accorded such courtesies.

"Who are you?"

"Robett Glover, if it please, my lord."

"Glover. Your seat was Deepwood Motte."

"My brother Galbart's seat. It was and is, thanks to your King Stannis. He has taken Deepwood back from the iron bitch who stole it and offers to restore it to its rightful owners. Much and more has happened whilst you have been confined within these walls, Lord Davos. Moat Cailin has fallen, and Roose Bolton has returned to the north with Ned Stark's younger daughter. A host of Freys came with him. Bolton has sent forth ravens, summoning all the lords of the north to Barrowton. He demands homage and hostages … and witnesses to the wedding of Arya Stark and his bastard Ramsay Snow, by which match the Boltons mean to lay claim to Winterfell. Now, will you come with me, or no?"

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 months later...
6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Do you think it is possible that Big Walder and Ramsay collaborated to kill Little Walder to provoke the ensuing confrontation in order to stir Roose into action? 

One would think if Ramsay wanted a Frey death to do that he would have used Little Walder to kill Big Walder, not the reverse. It's Little Walder who has become close with Ramsay, iirc. Perhaps Big Walder, most likely, has grown to hate Little Walder enough because of Little Walder's adoption of a more powerful leader, to do this on his own, or perhaps he just sees such a conflict as a way to do away with those closer to the Lordship. I don't see the collaboration between him and Ramsay as that likely, however.

Do you have reason to suspect collaboration that I'm missing? Entirely possible, btw.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, SFDanny said:

One would think if Ramsay wanted a Frey death to do that he would have used Little Walder to kill Big Walder, not the reverse. It's Little Walder who has become close with Ramsay, iirc. Perhaps Big Walder, most likely, has grown to hate Little Walder enough because of Little Walder's adoption of a more powerful leader, to do this on his own, or perhaps he just sees such a conflict as a way to do away with those closer to the Lordship. I don't see the collaboration between him and Ramsay as that likely, however.

Do you have reason to suspect collaboration that I'm missing? Entirely possible, btw.

I don't have any evidence to point to. I have always been sceptical of the I-have-only-72-more-relatives-to-kill-and-I-am-lord theory, so I think about this a lot. And you're right that we should expect Little Walder to work with Ramsay. But this idea might explain a few other things. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I don't have any evidence to point to. I have always been sceptical of the I-have-only-72-more-relatives-to-kill-and-I-am-lord theory, so I think about this a lot. And you're right that we should expect Little Walder to work with Ramsay. But this idea might explain a few other things. 

I think skepticism of the "I-have-only-72-more-relatives-to-kill-and-I-am-lord theory" is a good thing, but then again, what does a young boy to do with his life if not to plan the impossible and hope that the hatred of the world towards anyone named Frey helps out? One never knows, and the odds of Frey pies must have been slim to none at one time, but now it's trending on all Northern menus.

But seriously, I'm game. What other things would this explain that make you think the collaboration likely? I love the detail of the opening post and would like to read the thinking here as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I think skepticism of the "I-have-only-72-more-relatives-to-kill-and-I-am-lord theory" is a good thing, but then again, what does a young boy to do with his life if not to plan the impossible and hope that the hatred of the world towards anyone named Frey helps out? One never knows, and the odds of Frey pies must have been slim to none at one time, but now it's trending on all Northern menus.

But seriously, I'm game. What other things would this explain that make you think the collaboration likely? I love the detail of the opening post and would like to read the thinking here as well.

Perfect! :lol:

And I agree, I think Ramsay would employ LW, not BW. But like you, I'd like to know what other things this option would explain. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I think skepticism of the "I-have-only-72-more-relatives-to-kill-and-I-am-lord theory" is a good thing, but then again, what does a young boy to do with his life if not to plan the impossible and hope that the hatred of the world towards anyone named Frey helps out? One never knows, and the odds of Frey pies must have been slim to none at one time, but now it's trending on all Northern menus.

But seriously, I'm game. What other things would this explain that make you think the collaboration likely? I love the detail of the opening post and would like to read the thinking here as well.

Ramsay and Roose were arguing and Fat Walda was scared. Why? Perhaps Ramsay wanted to ride out to fight Stannis, and Roose preferred to remain in the castle. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Ramsay and Roose were arguing and Fat Walda was scared. Why? Perhaps Ramsay wanted to ride out to fight Stannis, and Roose preferred to remain in the castle. 

Ok, all of that fits the characters as we know them. Ramsay's bloodlust and need for cruelty plotting to force his father into action before the cold calculation of Roose tells him it's time to do so. That certainly fits. Walda's fear shows she is not a complete idiot. One has to pity her position. I'm not sure that points in the direction of a collaboration between Ramsay and Big Walder to murder Little Walder, but it's a workable theory.

Lost Melnibonean, if you don't mind a compliment, you've done great work here, and your theories are solidly supported. I'm impressed with the thread and your obvious commitment to detail. I'm going to keep reading looking for your posts here, and if you don't mind, I'll throw my observations in every once and a while. Again, great stuff!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Ok, all of that fits the characters as we know them. Ramsay's bloodlust and need for cruelty plotting to force his father into action before the cold calculation of Roose tells him it's time to do so. That certainly fits. Walda's fear shows she is not a complete idiot. One has to pity her position. I'm not sure that points in the direction of a collaboration between Ramsay and Big Walder to murder Little Walder, but it's a workable theory.

Lost Melnibonean, if you don't mind a compliment, you've done great work here, and your theories are solidly supported. I'm impressed with the thread and your obvious commitment to detail. I'm going to keep reading looking for your posts here, and if you don't mind, I'll throw my observations in every once and a while. Again, great stuff!

That's what this forum is for. :thumbsup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 months later...

So, when Rickon shoes up east of Winterfell with Skagossons riding shaggy unicorns, will they be joined by Crannogmen riding lizard lions? 

Quote

Long ago, the histories claim, the crannogmen were ruled by the Marsh Kings. Singers tell of them riding on lizard lions and using great frog spears like lances, but that is clearly fancy.

Why not? I'd fancy that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Lost Melnibonean said:

So, when Rickon shoes up east of Winterfell with Skagossons riding shaggy unicorns, will they be joined by Crannogmen riding lizard lions? 

Why not? I'd fancy that. 

As would I. How awesome, eh? :D

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 16-2-2017 at 1:34 AM, bemused said:

I don't buy Theon Durden at all. There's no real disassociation going on. Theon is always reminding himself to be Reek out of fear. There are no hallucinations, unless you count Bran's face on the weirwood, and that could be magic.

It's much more likely that Theon believes the person he meets to be dead, one of the many ghosts he senses in WF... and I'm sure there must be many men with hooded cloaks inside WF.

No...But I don't think the HM is committing any of the murders.. I think the culprit is Ramsay, Theon's first suspicion - perhaps excluding the death of Little Walder (I don't think BW acted alone).. He's hooded,visibility is poor and he's not seen anywhere where people are gathered.

 

I agree that Ramsay is the culprit for at least most of the murders. When Theon is the Prince of WF, Theon and Ramsay appear to be behind the mysterious murders that happen than: 

Quote

He could not let the killings go unpunished. Farlen was as likely a suspect as any, so Theon sat in judgment, called him guilty, and condemned him to death. Even that went sour. As he knelt to the block, the kennelmaster said, "M'lord Eddard always did his own killings." Theon had to take the axe himself or look a weakling. His hands were sweating, so the shaft twisted in his grip as he swung and the first blow landed between Farlen's shoulders. It took three more cuts to hack through all that bone and muscle and sever the head from the body, and afterward he was sick, remembering all the times they'd sat over a cup of mead talking of hounds and hunting. I had no choice, he wanted to scream at the corpse. The ironborn can't keep secrets, they had to die, and someone had to take the blame for it. He only wished he had killed him cleaner. Ned Stark had never needed more than a single blow to take a man's head.

ACOK - Theon V

This is basically a confession that Theon himself was behind those murders, because he was afraid the Bran & Rickon swap would come out. 

Quote

Theon had not heard him approach, nor smelled him either. He could not think of anyone he wanted to see less. It made him uneasy to see the man walking around breathing, with what he knew. I should have had him killed after he did the others, he reflected, but the notion made him nervous. Unlikely as it seemed, Reek could read and write, and he was possessed of enough base cunning to have hidden an account of what they'd done.

And this seems to indicate that Ramsay executed the murders at that time as Reek. It may have been Ramsay who suggested it. 

So Theon's suspicion of Ramsay is well grounded. Ramsay has as much reason as Theon had to prevent certain secrets from coming out. 

It's also possible that Theon as Reek is executing Ramsay's murders in a twisted way of 'helping' Ramsay, the same way Ramsay 'helped' him. Even during his own short reign in WF, Theon dissociated from the murders, so it's definitely not unlikely he doesn't even remember committing them now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 5 months later...
On 2/3/2017 at 5:53 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Apparently, Melisandre wanted Jon to send Mance to rescue his sister in order to gain Jon’s trust, but the especially curious issue here was that Melisandre saw Arya riding north, east of Long Lake, and Mance said he had a ploy in mind, asking for a handful of spearwives to help him, suggesting he knew that he would be going to Winterfell not the eastern shore of Long Lake. Later we found out with the arrival of Alys Karstark at Castle Black, that Mance did not even bother to look for Arya, and Jon began to suspect that Melisandre had some other task for Mance. He ended up thinking about Melisandre’s secret agenda at least twice more.

Disguised as Abel, an echo of Mance’s hero, Bael the Bard, the Mance wanted to know how Theon captured Winterfell. Clearly, Mance was attempting to find some way for Stannis to capture Winterfell. He also wanted Theon to show him the crypts. While Mance was apparently unable to find some way for Stannis to capture Winterfell by some trick, his spearwives began murdering men to fan the flames of animosity between House Frey and the Northmen, especially House Manderly. Presumably, Mance intended to hide in the crypts as Bael had done.

But why was Mance so eager, desperate even, to help the presumed Arya to escape? He did not seem to care about Theon, but he needed Theon to get the presumed Arya out. Did he believe that he had stumbled upon Arya Stark at Winterfell, and that he needed to get her out of the castle to fulfill Melisandre’s vision to foster good relations with Jon and to promote fidelity between the Free Folk and the North? Is that why he apparently sacrificed himself to free the presumed Arya? Theon was quite convinced that Abel would be caught and flayed by Ramsay, and that fate was apparently confirmed in the pink letter

  Reveal hidden contents

and in the Theon spoiler chapter from Winds, the events of which were confirmed to have occurred before Jon received the pink letter,

and foreshadowed in The Dornishman's Wife

Interestingly, one of the spearwives, Rowan, seemed to hold Theon in great contempt. This alone would not have been suspect, but she also took great umbrage at Theon’s use of House Stark’s words, suggesting she was actually a daughter of the North rather than a native of the Free Folk, although there did seem to be a grudging respect, or awe, for House Stark among the Free Folk. Rowan, tall and skinny, too lean and leathery to be called pretty, but attractive with auburn hair, could very well have been the daughter Mors lost during a wilding raid. 

Perhaps Mance stoped at Last Hearth with Rowan on his way to Winterfell. Perhaps Rowan convinced her father that he should not be demanding Mance’s skull for a drinking cup after all. 

Mors later arrived at Winterfell. He did not attack, but he started blowing war horns, presumably to instill fear in the defenders, but possibly to alert agents on the inside, and notice that was precisely when Mance decided it was time to bug out.

Hmm... Maybe Mance was desperate to get Theon out...

Quote

The vault was cavernous, longer than Winterfell itself, and Jon had told him once that there were other levels underneath, vaults even deeper and darker where the older kings were burried. 

Bran VII, Game 66

Quote

"The steps go farther down," observed Lady Dustin.

"There are lower levels. Older. The lowest level is partly collapsed, I hear. I have never been down there." He pushed the door open and led them out into a long vaulted tunnel, where mighty granite pillars marched two by two into blackness.

The Turncloak, Dance 41

Perhaps Stannis has learned of a way into Winterfell...

Spoiler
Quote

"That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?"

"Twenty green boys, with spades," Theon told him. "The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls. So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys. The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteenonly lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now."

Theon, Winds

I wonder...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry I haven't quite had time to read through the whole thread.  I love this topic was just wondering about some points made in the OP.

1.  Do we know or have any indication that Mance and his spearwives are behind ANY of the murders at Winterfell?  I know there is at least one specific time where a spearwife angrily denies being responsible for a murder which Theon accuses her of, but I can't recall whether it was only specific to that murder (I believe it was Little Walder).

2.  I continue to be so interested as to what exactly is going on with Mance, Melisandre, and Jon.  It really bothers me how Mance openly mentions needing spearwives to carry out a ploy separate from the rescue Arya mission in front of Jon, and there is absolutely no follow-up whatsoever from Jon asking what Mance intends to do.  And then you essentially have Jon playing dumb afterwards continuing to wonder what Mance and Melisandre are up to despite them basically openly telling him they were up to something else earlier on.

3.  We still have to wonder whether Mance is fulfilling Melisandre's/Stannis's agenda, or his own.  Is Mance acting on his own accord?  Is he bound to Melisandre's will by the ruby?  If he's not, it might make sense for him to have some involvement in the Pink Letter, considering he would want access to his son (or at least who he thinks is his son) and probably wants to help Val out too.

4.  I recall Theon openly wondering why Mance and the spearwives are so interested in how he took Winterfell.  He puts it up to them wanting to escape, and I'm inclined to agree.  Theon basically describes Winterfell as a prison at this point, all the entrances and exits are blocked off and guarded, and Mance is shrewd enough to know that perhaps he should not test Ramsay's cruelty by attempting to leave.  

5.  This is the most curious thing to me about it all- Jaime knows right away that "Arya" is in fact a fake.  While he did spend more time around Arya than Mance, I do continually wonder whether Mance also should or must know that Arya is a fake.  He certainly does not act like it, and Mance doesn't seem to quite be the kind of guy who would sacrifice lives of spearwives for something he didn't deem too important.

6.  On the subject of the murder of Little Walder, I know there is some "forensic evidence" that Big Walder may be responsible (i.e. blood spatter and motive), but that does go against what we are shown about the character of Big Walder, who seems pretty put off by Ramsay's cruelty.  Not sure that kid is capable of murdering a relative.  What is more compelling to me motive-wise is this "Ghost of Winterfell" who Theon encounters.  It's more in-line with the other murders, which seem to be vengence-motivated against the Freys and Boltons and Ramsay (one of Ramsay's boys had his genitals stuck in his mouth as I recall).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

Sorry I haven't quite had time to read through the whole thread.  I love this topic was just wondering about some points made in the OP.

1.  Do we know or have any indication that Mance and his spearwives are behind ANY of the murders at Winterfell?  I know there is at least one specific time where a spearwife angrily denies being responsible for a murder which Theon accuses her of, but I can't recall whether it was only specific to that murder (I believe it was Little Walder).

The fact, and the way, that she denies being behind Little Walder's death implies that they were behind the other deaths, I think. 

10 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

2.  I continue to be so interested as to what exactly is going on with Mance, Melisandre, and Jon.  It really bothers me how Mance openly mentions needing spearwives to carry out a ploy separate from the rescue Arya mission in front of Jon, and there is absolutely no follow-up whatsoever from Jon asking what Mance intends to do.  And then you essentially have Jon playing dumb afterwards continuing to wonder what Mance and Melisandre are up to despite them basically openly telling him they were up to something else earlier on.

I think that has a lot do do with this being a tale rather than an account, and the storyteller needs to to limit the information the reader has at various points in the tale. 

13 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

3.  We still have to wonder whether Mance is fulfilling Melisandre's/Stannis's agenda, or his own.  Is Mance acting on his own accord?  Is he bound to Melisandre's will by the ruby?  If he's not, it might make sense for him to have some involvement in the Pink Letter, considering he would want access to his son (or at least who he thinks is his son) and probably wants to help Val out too.

As far as he knows, Jon and Melisandre have his son, so the Mance might, or might not, feel compelled to serve their ends. Of course, Melisandre and Jon might not have the same outcomes in mind. 

15 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

4.  I recall Theon openly wondering why Mance and the spearwives are so interested in how he took Winterfell.  He puts it up to them wanting to escape, and I'm inclined to agree.  Theon basically describes Winterfell as a prison at this point, all the entrances and exits are blocked off and guarded, and Mance is shrewd enough to know that perhaps he should not test Ramsay's cruelty by attempting to leave.  

I have always suspected that the Mance was looking for a place to hide or a way out, but as I suggested a couple of posts up, I am now wondering if he was looking for a way in. 

20 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

5.  This is the most curious thing to me about it all- Jaime knows right away that "Arya" is in fact a fake.  While he did spend more time around Arya than Mance, I do continually wonder whether Mance also should or must know that Arya is a fake.  He certainly does not act like it, and Mance doesn't seem to quite be the kind of guy who would sacrifice lives of spearwives for something he didn't deem too important.

I know, right? Maybe, as I suggested a couple of posts up, he was not as concerned about getting the presumed Arya out as he was in getting Theon out. 

22 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

6.  On the subject of the murder of Little Walder, I know there is some "forensic evidence" that Big Walder may be responsible (i.e. blood spatter and motive), but that does go against what we are shown about the character of Big Walder, who seems pretty put off by Ramsay's cruelty.  Not sure that kid is capable of murdering a relative.  What is more compelling to me motive-wise is this "Ghost of Winterfell" who Theon encounters.  It's more in-line with the other murders, which seem to be vengence-motivated against the Freys and Boltons and Ramsay (one of Ramsay's boys had his genitals stuck in his mouth as I recall).

I have no doubt that the so called hooded man was the ghost of Reek's former self. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tagganaro said:

Do we know or have any indication that Mance and his spearwives are behind ANY of the murders at Winterfell? 

Well, Rowan pretty much admits it to Theon, and gets angry when he tries to pin Little Walder's murder on them as well. 

ADwD, Theon

“Theon saw. “Winter is coming …”
Rowan gave him a hard look. “You have no right to mouth Lord Eddard’s words. Not you. Not ever. After what you did—”
You killed a boy as well.”
“That was not us. I told you.

“Words are wind.” They are no better than me. We’re just the same. You killed the others, why not him? Yellow Dick—”
“—stank as bad as you. A pig of a man
.”
“And Little Walder was a piglet. Killing him brought the Freys and Manderlys to dagger points, that was cunning, you—”
“Not us.” Rowan grabbed him by the throat and shoved him back against the barracks wall, her face an inch from his. “Say it again and I will rip your lying tongue out, kinslayer.”
He smiled through his broken teeth. “You won’t. You need my tongue to get you past the guards. You need my lies.”
Rowan spat in his face. Then she let him go and wiped her gloved hands on her legs, as if just touching him had soiled her.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/21/2018 at 6:21 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think that has a lot do do with this being a tale rather than an account, and the storyteller needs to to limit the information the reader has at various points in the tale. 

Agreed, although I still find it bothersome.  Jon tends to be pretty introspective and comprehensive in terms of thinking about the things going on around him, but we get absolutely NOTHING here despite how major it is.  Mance is asking Jon for spearwives and openly saying he has a "certain ploy in mind" that is clearly separate from his mission to retrieve Arya from Longlake, and not only does Jon then not respond at all to it, he then seems to forget that Mance ever said that shortly afterwards when he wonders what Melisandre and Mance are up to.

Quote

 

As far as he knows, Jon and Melisandre have his son, so the Mance might, or might not, feel compelled to serve their ends. Of course, Melisandre and Jon might not have the same outcomes in mind. 

I have always suspected that the Mance was looking for a place to hide or a way out, but as I suggested a couple of posts up, I am now wondering if he was looking for a way in. 

I know, right? Maybe, as I suggested a couple of posts up, he was not as concerned about getting the presumed Arya out as he was in getting Theon out. 

 

Yes, I mean to me this is the most interesting thing about all of it...what are Mance's motives?  What does he want here?  Why is he so willing to risk/sacrifice the lives of wildlings when we know he cares above all about the welfare of these wildlings?  Is he working on his "own ploy" or is the ploy sanctioned by Melisandre?  Once you get his motives, then you can get a better guess of what exactly he is up to.  Because if he's helping Stannis/Melisandre, it makes sense that he'd by trying to find a way in to help Stannis.  If he's not and carrying out his own objectives here, who knows?  

 

Quote

I had that exact theory in mind when I wrote that :lol:.  I certainly won't dismiss it but I do not subscribe to that theory.  I'm kind of partial to it being Harwin or some member of the BWB as we know they are infiltrating the Freys it would make sense if they had someone on the inside with the Boltons too.

On 2/21/2018 at 7:18 PM, kissdbyfire said:

Well, Rowan pretty much admits it to Theon, and gets angry when he tries to pin Little Walder's murder on them as well. 

ADwD, Theon

“Theon saw. “Winter is coming …”
Rowan gave him a hard look. “You have no right to mouth Lord Eddard’s words. Not you. Not ever. After what you did—”
You killed a boy as well.”
“That was not us. I told you.

“Words are wind.” They are no better than me. We’re just the same. You killed the others, why not him? Yellow Dick—”
“—stank as bad as you. A pig of a man
.”
“And Little Walder was a piglet. Killing him brought the Freys and Manderlys to dagger points, that was cunning, you—”
“Not us.” Rowan grabbed him by the throat and shoved him back against the barracks wall, her face an inch from his. “Say it again and I will rip your lying tongue out, kinslayer.”
He smiled through his broken teeth. “You won’t. You need my tongue to get you past the guards. You need my lies.”
Rowan spat in his face. Then she let him go and wiped her gloved hands on her legs, as if just touching him had soiled her.”

This is so interesting...it could be read as Rowan admitting to the other murders but it also could just be her not responding to the allegation.  At another point Theon again accuses them of murdering Yellow Dick and the others and Holly laughingly responds "How could it be us?  We're women.  Teats and cunnies.  Here to be fucked, not feared."  We know of course she's lying here, so is she lying about everything?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

This is so interesting...it could be read as Rowan admitting to the other murders but it also could just be her not responding to the allegation.  At another point Theon again accuses them of murdering Yellow Dick and the others and Holly laughingly responds "How could it be us?  We're women.  Teats and cunnies.  Here to be fucked, not feared."  We know of course she's lying here, so is she lying about everything?  

Really? To me it reads as a clear admission of guilt on some/all but LW of the murders going on! :D

I think Rowan's reaction is too visceral to be a lie... :dunno: 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...