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Does fAegon annoy anyone else?

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1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

He's not going to turn the game on its head. The only ones who can do that are the Others, who have been with us from book one.

Aegon's been set up since Ned's memory of the smashed baby head that was unrecognizable. Then there's Varys referring to Elia and her babe--singular. Then Aegon shows up. That fits with the three-fold strategy that one of GRRM's editors said he uses.

Aegon is not going to be a major character. He'll probably die before the end of TWOW. He exists more for the other characters' reactions to him than for anything else. He's a catalyst. And for that we don't need an elaborate setup.

Well, if he's not going to do anything relevant then he's gonna be the biggest time waster ever and the show was absolutely right to leave him out. 

And I personally would've liked a more elaborate set up than Tyrion learning his identity off-page in the most anticlimactic fashion five books in. Mance, Euron, even Randyll Tarly had memorable entrances and were mentioned books ahead of their first appearance in a way that felt natural and made sense. Aegon freaking Targaryen was just there. Granted, I obviously don't mean that Aegon should've dropped by King's Landing in aGoT balancing lemoncakes on his head, but GRRM could've definitely set that whole plot line better. 

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9 minutes ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

Well, if he's not going to do anything relevant then he's gonna be the biggest time waster ever and the show was absolutely right to leave him out. 

And I personally would've liked a more elaborate set up than Tyrion learning his identity off-page in the most anticlimactic fashion five books in. Mance, Euron, even Randyll Tarly had memorable entrances and were mentioned books ahead of their first appearance in a way that felt natural and made sense. Aegon freaking Targaryen was just there. Granted, I obviously don't mean that Aegon should've dropped by King's Landing in aGoT balancing lemoncakes on his head, but GRRM could've definitely set that whole plot line better

You don't see the point or value of the catalyst? The show cut him, and a bunch of other characters because the CGI for the dragonbattles was going to leave them with no money left for the Other battles. And I didn't say he wasn't going to do anything. Just that he wasn't going to change the game, and he was going to die before too long. He can still do stuff, maybe even something important.

I can appreciate a good entrance as much as anybody. Used to be a performer. But not every entrance can be memorable. The entrance Aegon made was carefully crafted exactly as it was. For what reason, we'll have to wait and see.

Aegon's appearance was set up in the first book. How much farther back would you like to go?

What you're suggesting is that he should have set it up more transparently. That may or may not have been better though. Transparency doesn't always make for great surprises.

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6 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

You don't see the point or value of the catalyst? The show cut him, and a bunch of other characters because the CGI for the dragonbattles was going to leave them with no money left for the Other battles. And I didn't say he wasn't going to do anything. Just that he wasn't going to change the game, and he was going to die before too long. He can still do stuff, maybe even something important.

I can appreciate a good entrance as much as anybody. Used to be a performer. But not every entrance can be memorable. The entrance Aegon made was carefully crafted exactly as it was. For what reason, we'll have to wait and see.

Aegon's appearance was set up in the first book. How much farther back would you like to go?

What you're suggesting is that he should have set it up more transparently. That may or may not have been better though. Transparency doesn't always make for great surprises.

It's perfectly alright to have a catalyst, though I'd rather not have him be a character that, some highly ambiguous bits of foreshadowing notwithstanding, shows up virtually out of the blue five books in and threatens to uppend the status quo. I mean, real or fake, a Targaryen pretender with a better claim to the throne than Dany taking Stannis' last foothold in the South IS a pretty big deal whichever way you slice it. And the set up is just no on par with it.

I guess I would've liked it to be more transparent. Hell, an earlier JonCon cameo might've gone a long way into making me care for that storyline and make it seem less like a tacked on afterthought. 

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14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

No. I mean it has never come up in any discussion I've seen. For example I haven't yet seen a single person claim that Elaena was the product of a fling between her mother and a man from House Lannister. And with the type of theories we sometimes get, it's rather surprising that hasn't come up.

There is no reason to come up with such a theory since the Valyrians have a rather wide variety of unusual fair hairs. There is platinum white, silver-gold with the silvery aspect being stronger, and vice versa. Just look at Maekar whose hair and beard are such pale silver that the shade is mistaken for white.

Just as the various Targaryens vary insofar as the shades of their eye color is concerned they also vary in regards to their hair color.

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If we had complete data it would not be a theory. It would either be a fact or a pile of nonsense.

The facts would be various people having this or that hair color. The theory would be that this is always the case. Those are two different things.

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And here is the key word. The theory doesn't claim it ALWAYS happens, and that it happened with the kids we don't know about. The theory says that it is possible that it is almost always the case, based on the pattern found in the Targs about whom we do have data. Because the data we do have indicates that this is possible. To claim it always happened would have required completely ignoring Aegon II, which The Fattest Leech has not done.

I remember people coming up with the idea that Rhaenyra's elder stillborn brother looking like an Arryn (never mind that Aemma herself might have looked like a Targaryen, too, by the way - and she was the only child of Daella and Rodrik) then this is going pretty far.

I'm with anybody who suggests Targaryens of mixed heritage not looking Valyrian being a hint that this is also possible for Jon Snow. But going further doesn't make much sense.

12 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Until we get the big reveal. 

What kind of 'big reveal' do you expect there to be? Daenerys Targaryen writing some letters claiming that somebody (a convicted kinslayer and kingslayer? Some dispossessed sellsword?) told her that Prince Aegon might not be who he claims he is? Just like Stannis writing letters actually telling a far more believable story were believed by everyone because he said so?

Nobody can prove that Aegon isn't who he says he is. Even if Varys and Illyrio were captured and forced to tell the truth who will be able to determine whether they are telling the truth or whether they are forced to lie (like Ned was when he declared that Cersei's children were who she said they were).

And if you put yourself into the shoes of the average Westerosi guy then you can ask yourself for a moment what story makes more sense for you: That Aerys II's spy master saved the life of little Prince Aegon and spirited him away into safety to be raised by Rhaegar's friend Jon Connington or that said spy master is fooling everyone, working in favor of some extinguished bastard line of House Targaryen?

The people who will declare for Aegon will be convinced that he is the real deal if he has success on the battlefield. And once they are committed to him they won't quickly change their minds again unless he suffers a defeat in battle (or fucks things up in another fashion), especially not if they profit personally from his rise to the Iron Throne or if put all their hopes and dreams of a united and peaceful Realm into him.

After all, the return of Rhaegar's son from the dead will be seen as an answered prayer. Finally the dragons are back again and everything is going to be fine. Even if people ran around crying 'Blackfyre fraud!' very few people would want to believe that.

And considering that Westeros seems to be pretty opposed to the idea of a female ruler in general there is little doubt that people will be more inclined to believe that the male Targaryen is real than that the woman is the rightful ruler - at least while Daenerys is not yet there. Once she is there and wins some battles/takes some land things should change in her favor.

While Aegon is not yet on the throne some people might harbor doubts whether he might be a fraud. But once Dorne declares for him that is going to change dramatically - after all, would Doran Martell support a pretender who wasn't his nephew? - and as soon as Aegon takes the throne and is properly crowned and anointed his identity will be confirmed. If the High Septon does him homage as Aegon of House Targaryen, etc. then the Seven themselves will have ruled on the matter, and they are not likely to change their mind on that one.

9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Aegon is not going to be a major character. He'll probably die before the end of TWOW. He exists more for the other characters' reactions to him than for anything else. He's a catalyst. And for that we don't need an elaborate setup.

Unless the Second Dance of the Dragons is going to take place in the first half of TWoW - which seems completely impossible to me - Aegon would be dying far too early for my taste. He has far too large a retinue of people around him to go down this early.

Aegon doesn't make sense as a catalyst. As things stand right now his people are not going to join Daenerys but oppose her once she arrives, especially Dorne considering Arianne's feelings for Dany, but without Aegon those people would have little choice but join Daenerys upon her arrival. After all, the thing that keeps them together as a group already is the fact that they are Targaryen loyalists who do not like the Lannisters all that much.

If Aegon turned out to be a catalyst to rally Targaryen loyalists who then can just switch to Dany upon his death - just as many Stormlords and Reach lords switched from Renly to Stannis and Joffrey - then this whole thing could have done without introducing Aegon at all.

9 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

Given the Stormlords pledged themselves to Renly before Stannis ever sent out the letters, that can't be attributed to the incest accusation. None of Joffrey's retainers abandoned him after Stannis started spreading the word. In fact many of those Storm lords and lords of the Reach pledged themselves to Joffrey after the letter.

Indeed. Nobody cares about legitimacy or anything, really, unless it profits them to believe or not believe stuff like that. And there is little reason to believe that the people who gladly and happily join Aegon will change their mind just because a mad woman spreads foul rumors about him.

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Reading the transcription of Arianne II, Winds, it occurs to me that Lysono Maar is a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre. The lilac eyes and the white gold hair are more common features in Lys, but still, those are Targaryen features.

  Reveal hidden contents

Weeping Town, the storyteller takes time to tell us that the corpse of Daeron I remained there for some time after he was killed in Dorne. Is the author focusing our attention on a dead Targaryen for a reason? Rhaegar's heir was also killed, with his corpse displayed for the realm to see.

Arianne's party departs Weeping Town with the rising sun (a symbol of Dorne), through green (the color associated with Aegon's side against the the queen in the Dance of the Dragons) fields, and into the blackest (the color of the Blackfyre dragon) pitch under the canopy of the Rainwood at night. 

We are reminded of what Catelyn told Robb about House Mudd--that the line of Tristifer Mudd ended after his heir failed him. But of course, we meet a Mudd in the Golden Company. So, even though the line was supposedly exinguished, and John Mudd maybe a shoot from a lower branch on the tree, we see that old names thought to be extinguished (like Blackfyre) can resurface. 

Chains's proudest boast is that his great grandfather fought with Blackfyre and followed Bittersteel. Even though, he was bastard born in Essos three generations later, he was raised as a Westerosi, speaking the Common Tongue. 

Then Arianne meets Lysono Maar, and she notes that he speaks the Common Tongue very well, like Chains, no? 

As they talk about the beauty of Targaryen men, Lysono says he has only met one Targaryen man. Well, Arianne and the casual reader would assume he is referring to Aegon. But didn't Daenerys tell us that Viserys feasted the captains of the Golden Company? And shouldn't we assume that Lysono was among those captains who laughed at Viserys? If so, then Lysono has met Aegon and Viserys, but he says he has only met one Targaryen man. 

Lysono claims Aegon is the son of Rhaegar and Elia, but if Aegon is The Blackfyre, Lysono has to lie to effect the ruse, and something about Lysono makes Arianne's skin crawl. This is a signal that the Dornish princess is not so much offended by his effeminate appearance, but that we should mistrust what he says. 

And note that Lysono Maar, just "a sellsword late of the Free City of Lys," is offended by the term sellswords, asserting that the Golden Company is a "free brotherhood of exiles," still persistent even after several failures.

Oh, come on. Next you are saying that Aegon is Rhaegar's son because he looks that part.

Lysono Maar is a newcomer to the Golden Company. He could have a connection to Varys and Illyrio, being put inside the company to ensure that they behave, but his looks mean nothing. And neither does his knowledge of the Common Tongue - a spy master has to speak a lot of languages, Blackfyre blood is not going to help him with that.

And by the way - we have no clue whether the Blackfyres in the second or third generation actually maintained those fancy Valyrian looks Daemon I was famous for. Daemon II had them but - who knows? - perhaps Haegon looked like Daeron the Drunken and Daemon III like Baelor Breakspear?

If the Targaryens have difficulties to preserve their Valyrian looks outside of incest or cousin matches then the Blackfyres would have so, too, and we don't know whether they could afford any of those in exile, nor do we know whether Rohanne of Tyrosh was of (pure-blooded) Valyrian descent.

We also have no idea when exactly Viserys III feasted the Golden Company captains. Could very well have been in Blackheart's days long before Lysono Maar joined the company (in fact, that's pretty likely considering that Viserys III would have to have been still considerably wealthy at that point in his career - the Beggar King would not have had the coin to feast the Golden Company). And him describing the Golden Company as a free brotherhood of exiles doesn't mean anything in that context. After all, who says that Maar, Balaq, and Edoryen are not also exiles - just not exiles who were exiled from Westeros?

If there were men in the Golden Company who knew the truth one should assume those men are likely to die sooner rather than later. If Aegon and Connington have no clue about the truth they cannot have anybody spill the beans to them or the Dornish.

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55 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

What kind of 'big reveal' do you expect there to be? Daenerys Targaryen writing some letters claiming that somebody (a convicted kinslayer and kingslayer? Some dispossessed sellsword?) told her that Prince Aegon might not be who he claims he is? Just like Stannis writing letters actually telling a far more believable story were believed by everyone because he said so?

Hopefully the George will be more imaginative than you. 

56 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And if you put yourself into the shoes of the average Westerosi guy then you can ask yourself for a moment what story makes more sense for you: That Aerys II's spy master saved the life of little Prince Aegon and spirited him away into safety to be raised by Rhaegar's friend Jon Connington or that said spy master is fooling everyone, working in favor of some extinguished bastard line of House Targaryen?

The people who will declare for Aegon will be convinced that he is the real deal if he has success on the battlefield. And once they are committed to him they won't quickly change their minds again unless he suffers a defeat in battle (or fucks things up in another fashion), especially not if they profit personally from his rise to the Iron Throne or if put all their hopes and dreams of a united and peaceful Realm into him.

After all, the return of Rhaegar's son from the dead will be seen as an answered prayer. Finally the dragons are back again and everything is going to be fine. Even if people ran around crying 'Blackfyre fraud!' very few people would want to believe that.

And considering that Westeros seems to be pretty opposed to the idea of a female ruler in general there is little doubt that people will be more inclined to believe that the male Targaryen is real than that the woman is the rightful ruler - at least while Daenerys is not yet there. Once she is there and wins some battles/takes some land things should change in her favor.

While Aegon is not yet on the throne some people might harbor doubts whether he might be a fraud. But once Dorne declares for him that is going to change dramatically - after all, would Doran Martell support a pretender who wasn't his nephew? - and as soon as Aegon takes the throne and is properly crowned and anointed his identity will be confirmed. If the High Septon does him homage as Aegon of House Targaryen, etc. then the Seven themselves will have ruled on the matter, and they are not likely to change their mind on that one.

Unless the Second Dance of the Dragons is going to take place in the first half of TWoW - which seems completely impossible to me - Aegon would be dying far too early for my taste. He has far too large a retinue of people around him to go down this early.

Aegon doesn't make sense as a catalyst. As things stand right now his people are not going to join Daenerys but oppose her once she arrives, especially Dorne considering Arianne's feelings for Dany, but without Aegon those people would have little choice but join Daenerys upon her arrival. After all, the thing that keeps them together as a group already is the fact that they are Targaryen loyalists who do not like the Lannisters all that much.

If Aegon turned out to be a catalyst to rally Targaryen loyalists who then can just switch to Dany upon his death - just as many Stormlords and Reach lords switched from Renly to Stannis and Joffrey - then this whole thing could have done without introducing Aegon at all.

Indeed. Nobody cares about legitimacy or anything, really, unless it profits them to believe or not believe stuff like that. And there is little reason to believe that the people who gladly and happily join Aegon will change their mind just because a mad woman spreads foul rumors about him.

Your assumptions are different than mine. My understanding is that you assume that Daenerys will come to believe that Aegon is not her brother's son, and perhaps that, even if he is, her claim is the rightfull one, and she will oppose Aegon immediately upon her return. From our heroine's perspective, that makes Aegon just another pretender, just another usurper, like Baratheon, Lanninster, and Greyjoy. 

I assume that Daenerys will return, as Tyrion predicted...

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"I told you, I know our little queen. Let her hear that her brother Rhaegar's murdered son is still alive, that this brave boy has raised the dragon standard of her forebears in Westeros once more, that he is fighting a desperate war to avenge his father and reclaim the Iron Throne for House Targaryen, hard-pressed on every side … and she will fly to your side as fast as wind and water can carry her. You are the last of her line, and this Mother of Dragons, this Breaker of Chains, is above all a rescuer. The girl who drowned the slaver cities in blood rather than leave strangers to their chains can scarcely abandon her own brother's son in his hour of peril. And when she reaches Westeros, and meets you for the first time, you will meet as equals, man and woman, not queen and supplicant. How can she help but love you then, I ask you?"

Tyrion VI, Dance 22

Daeneys will want to believe...

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The dragon has three heads. There are two men in the world who I can trust, if I can flnd them. I will not be alone then. We will be three against the world, like Aegon and his sisters.

Daenerys VI, Storm 71

Perhaps you are right. Perhaps the George is planning for Daenerys to come in with her dragons ready to tear poor Aegon to shreds right out of the gate. But I suspect that she will ally with him at first until she is betrayed. I know you don't agree with me, that you are right and anybody who disagrees with you is wrong. We've had this argument once or thrice in the past. 

As to your opinions (or are they incontrovertible facts?) regarding the Blackfyre legacy among the Golden Company and Lysono Maar, don't you get bored arguing about the same thing, with the same person over and over again? 

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Hopefully the George will be more imaginative than you.

You mean, like he was with Cersei's children, Rhaenyra's sons, 'Daeron Falseborn', and Aenys I?

There was no 'big reveal' with either of those and there is no reason to believe that 'a big reveal' if happening would have much of an impact in Aegon's case.

The only way Aegon's parentage could come up is in rumors and propaganda. But as you well know, words are wind, and they won't become a storm unless people are inclined to believe them. If Aegon wins on the field he will be king. He looks the part.

What the reader knows or believes he knows is pretty much irrelevant. The examples of Cersei's children are more than enough evidence for that.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Your assumptions are different than mine. My understanding is that you assume that Daenerys will come to believe that Aegon is not her brother's son, and perhaps that, even if he is, her claim is the rightfull one, and she will oppose Aegon immediately upon her return. From our heroine's perspective, that makes Aegon just another pretender, just another usurper, like Baratheon, Lanninster, and Greyjoy.

If George wanted to tell that story why the hell did he not allow Aegon to go to Meereen? He and Dany could have hooked up there and their relationship could then have slowly deteriorated, resulting in whatever betrayal you seem to imagine.

The way things stand know suggest that Aegon's decision to go west instead of east created a rift between himself and Dany that will only widen the more time passes from now on. Dany is not going to show up in Westeros soon and the next update everybody is going to get on her is that she married some Ghiscari nobleman and then disappeared/died during some riot in a fighting pit.

From that point onwards nobody in Westerosi is going to make politics with the prospect that Daenerys Targaryen could come to the continent in the foreseeable future. Why should they? They will think she is either dead or has decided to build herself some empire in Essos.

When she finally turns west (and people in Westeros learn that she is actually coming) the political situation there might have changed substantially. It is not completely out of the question that Aegon might himself find in a position where he might be forced to ally himself with Dany (because he is beset by enemies from all sides for some reason - say, he actually failed to end the usurper's line, Euron has burned Sunspear and extinguished House Martell in the male line, and the Vale is also fighting against him).

But if there is a Second Dance between Dany and Aegon it is more likely that we will see a gradual estrangement happening between these two people who never even met each other. Tyrion has doubts that Aegon is who he claims he is. The Tattered Prince might have information on Varys and Illyrio that may cast additional doubt on their intentions. Archmaester Marwyn is going to bring information east about Maester Aemon's interpretation of the birth of the dragons and what this means for Daenerys destiny. And then there is the cloth dragon vision and prophecy Dany herself has seen/heard.

Vice versa, Aegon might get gradually more and more confident in his own abilities, realizing/deciding that he no longer needs his aunt for anything. If he actually conquers the Iron Throne without dragons that might easily enough mean in his mind that he is the rightful king who has no need to share power with a mere woman. Arianne is likely to share his view on that, and if they end up marrying each other - possibly after the news about Dany-Hizdahr or Dany's alleged death arrive - the door for a marriage alliance between Dany and Aegon will close. The same will happen on Dany's side if she ends up taking another consort back in Essos (or if she drags Hizdahr along with her to Westeros).

The news about Quentyn's demise is very likely to antagonize Arianne - and thus Aegon - against Daenerys on a very personal level.

This is all not yet enough for a war but there might be some betrayals coming, like the one I entertain with Belwas turning against Dany on Illyrio's orders. If a married Aegon sits more or less securely on the Iron Throne and it looks like that Daenerys has become from a potential ally to a potential enemy, and such enemies are best removed from the board before they get the chance to actually harm you.

Dany could become disfigured/severely injured during such an insidious attempt on her life, and she might lose a very good friend/ally (Selmy) or a loved person (Daario) in the process of it. Such a betrayal is the kind of thing that could fuel the hatred on her side to culiminate in an all-out war.

The whole Blackfyre thing should be relatively irrelevant by comparison. If Dany can marry Hizdahr she can also marry a man who just pretends to be her nephew. Especially if it would prevent a war that would tear apart her kingdom (again).

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I assume that Daenerys will return, as Tyrion predicted...

Tyrion VI, Dance 22

Tyrion himself gives us a hint that he made shit up there. He tells us that Aegon took his bait. He set the boy up to fail, most likely out of spite because he did not like the feeling of having become Varys and Illyrio's pawn.

But, quite honestly, the whole conversation makes no sense where George ended up placing it. While Aegon and the gang had no reason to believe that Dany was not coming west Tyrion would never have tried to sell Aegon anything by talking crap like him going west instead of east. The gang was expecting Daenerys to come west and they were on the way to Volantis to wait for her there. Nobody intended to ever go to Slaver's Bay, and nobody ever intended for Aegon to meet a Queen Daenerys as a supplicant (the way Quentyn did).

Tyrion would only have tried to sell Aegon such an idea after it became clear that Daenerys was not coming and that they would have to go to Slaver's Bay to meet her. But then going west instead of east would actually make a lot of sense and would thus not be 'a bait'.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Daeneys will want to believe...

Daenerys VI, Storm 71

At first she might. And even if she doesn't believe a Blackfyre descendant would still be a distant cousin, and not necessarily her mortal enemy. I'm with you that something has to happen to set these two for their Dance. If it doesn't they simply won't dance.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Perhaps you are right. Perhaps the George is planning for Daenerys to come in with her dragons ready to tear poor Aegon to shreds right out of the gate. But I suspect that she will ally with him at first until she is betrayed. I know you don't agree with me, that you are right and anybody who disagrees with you is wrong. We've had this argument once or thrice in the past.

I could see this alliance things falling apart in multiple steps. Dany might even send envoys to Westeros long before she shows up there herself (because the journey takes longer than she expects, especially if Euron turned out to become a major danger). If the other dragons are mounted she would have pretty mobile envoys who could actually fly to Westeros to offer Aegon an alliance while she is still resolving things at Volantis or Lys.

Tyrion certainly could do stuff like that.

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As to your opinions (or are they incontrovertible facts?) regarding the Blackfyre legacy among the Golden Company and Lysono Maar, don't you get bored arguing about the same thing, with the same person over and over again? 

Well, if ADwD established anything about the whole Valyrian looks thing then that they are common enough in Essos, especially in Lys and Volantis. You are falling into a trap if you think Lysono Maar might be a Blackfyre descendant.

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4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You mean, like he was with Cersei's children, Rhaenyra's sons, 'Daeron Falseborn', and Aenys I?

Actually, I was thinking more in line with "Only Cat," and the revelation to the reader that Petyr had set the Stark-Lannister conflict in motion (I'm talking in terms of the narrative, rather than the fake, in-story history of this figment of the George's fancy). 

As for who backs Aegon now, I think some are backing him because he is the Blackfyre, and some because they believe he is Rhaegar's son. I expect we'll see more of both, until Daenerys and Aegon fight. And I do agree with you that people believe what they want to believe.  

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If George wanted to tell that story why the hell did he not allow Aegon to go to Meereen? He and Dany could have hooked up there and their relationship could then have slowly deteriorated, resulting in whatever betrayal you seem to imagine.

The George already told us...

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Tyrion moved his elephants. "And when the pisswater prince was safely dead, the eunuch smuggled you across the narrow sea to his fat friend the cheesemonger, who hid you on a poleboat and found an exile lord willing to call himself your father. It does make for a splendid story, and the singers will make much of your escape once you take the Iron Throne … assuming that our fair Daenerys takes you for her consort."

"She will. She must."

"Must? " Tyrion made a tsking sound. "That is not a word queens like to hear. You are her perfect prince, agreed, bright and bold and comely as any maid could wish. Daenerys Targaryen is no maid, however. She is the widow of a Dothraki khal, a mother of dragons and sacker of cities, Aegon the Conqueror with teats. She may not prove as willing as you wish."

"She'll be willing." Prince Aegon sounded shocked. It was plain that he had never before considered the possibility that his bride-to-be might refuse him. "You don't know her." He picked up his heavy horse and put it down with a thump.

The dwarf shrugged. "I know that she spent her childhood in exile, impoverished, living on dreams and schemes, running from one city to the next, always fearful, never safe, friendless but for a brother who was by all accounts half-mad … a brother who sold her maidenhood to the Dothraki for the promise of an army. I know that somewhere out upon the grass her dragons hatched, and so did she. I know she is proud. How not? What else was left her but pride? I know she is strong. How not? The Dothraki despise weakness. If Daenerys had been weak, she would have perished with Viserys. I know she is fierce. Astapor, Yunkai, and Meereen are proof enough of that. She has crossed the grasslands and the red waste, survived assassins and conspiracies and fell sorceries, grieved for a brother and a husband and a son, trod the cities of the slavers to dust beneath her dainty sandaled feet. Now, how do you suppose this queen will react when you turn up with your begging bowl in hand and say, ‘Good morrow to you, Auntie. I am your nephew, Aegon, returned from the dead. I've been hiding on a poleboat all my life, but now I've washed the blue dye from my hair and I'd like a dragon, please … and oh, did I mention, my claim to the Iron Throne is stronger than your own?'"

Tyrion VI, Dance 22

I am not trying to prove you wrong. I am simply supporting my assumptions. You could be correct, but you might be wrong. 

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Vice versa, Aegon might get gradually more and more confident in his own abilities, realizing/deciding that he no longer needs his aunt for anything. If he actually conquers the Iron Throne without dragons that might easily enough mean in his mind that he is the rightful king who has no need to share power with a mere woman. Arianne is likely to share his view on that, and if they end up marrying each other - possibly after the news about Dany-Hizdahr or Dany's alleged death arrive - the door for a marriage alliance between Dany and Aegon will close. The same will happen on Dany's side if she ends up taking another consort back in Essos (or if she drags Hizdahr along with her to Westeros).

The news about Quentyn's demise is very likely to antagonize Arianne - and thus Aegon - against Daenerys on a very personal level.

This is all not yet enough for a war but there might be some betrayals coming, like the one I entertain with Belwas turning against Dany on Illyrio's orders. If a married Aegon sits more or less securely on the Iron Throne and it looks like that Daenerys has become from a potential ally to a potential enemy, and such enemies are best removed from the board before they get the chance to actually harm you.

Dany could become disfigured/severely injured during such an insidious attempt on her life, and she might lose a very good friend/ally (Selmy) or a loved person (Daario) in the process of it. Such a betrayal is the kind of thing that could fuel the hatred on her side to culiminate in an all-out war.

You know, I have seen you criticize other readers for making assumption about what might or might not happen, without proof that it will happen. Isn't that what you are doing here? 

29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The whole Blackfyre thing should be relatively irrelevant by comparison. If Dany can marry Hizdahr she can also marry a man who just pretends to be her nephew.

Absolutely, especially if she believes that he is her nephew. So, I might be right? 

40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion himself gives us a hint that he made shit up there. He tells us that Aegon took his bait. He set the boy up to fail, most likely out of spite because he did not like the feeling of having become Varys and Illyrio's pawn.

What did Tyrion make up? Yes, he suggests that Aegon took the bait, but i read that as him wanting Aegon and Connington to strike now, so he can avenge himself. Keep in mind that when Tyrion gave Aegon that bait, Tyrion was expecting to go with Aegon. So, if Tyrion intended to set the boy up to fail, he was setting himself up to fail as well. Please quote the passage where Tyrion says or muses that he set the boy up to fail. 

44 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But, quite honestly, the whole conversation makes no sense where George ended up placing it.

You should tell that to the George. 

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

At first she might. And even if she doesn't believe a Blackfyre descendant would still be a distant cousin, and not necessarily her mortal enemy. I'm with you that something has to happen to set these two for their Dance. If it doesn't they simply won't dance.

I could see this alliance things falling apart in multiple steps. Dany might even send envoys to Westeros long before she shows up there herself (because the journey takes longer than she expects, especially if Euron turned out to become a major danger). If the other dragons are mounted she would have pretty mobile envoys who could actually fly to Westeros to offer Aegon an alliance while she is still resolving things at Volantis or Lys.

Tyrion certainly could do stuff like that.

If you can see Aegon and Daenerys treating with each other across the Narrow Sea, why can't you see them allying in Westeros, at least in the beginning? 

50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, if ADwD established anything about the whole Valyrian looks thing then that they are common enough in Essos, especially in Lys and Volantis. 

No doubt. 

51 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You are falling into a trap if you think Lysono Maar might be a Blackfyre descendant.

Or perhaps you are falling into a trap by denying the possibility. 

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12 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Actually, I was thinking more in line with "Only Cat," and the revelation to the reader that Petyr had set the Stark-Lannister conflict in motion (I'm talking in terms of the narrative, rather than the fake, in-story history of this figment of the George's fancy).

That isn't a big reveal. That was a small reveal to the reader only - even Sansa does not understand the entirety of that plot. Something like that is going to have no impact at all on the Aegon story.

In fact, I think we will get a private drama with the Aegon parentage thing. Aegon himself and Connington or Arianne finding out, and then having things go to hell on a private rather than a public level. That would be fun. There must be a reason why George never used that plot with Joffrey or Tommen/Myrcella. Aegon is old enough to confront Varys and Illyrio about their lies and possibly even honorable enough to ruin all their plans by revealing the truth to the public. And who knows? Perhaps the people don't care about that at all. That would be a very interesting take on the whole thing.

12 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As for who backs Aegon now, I think some are backing him because he is the Blackfyre, and some because they believe he is Rhaegar's son. I expect we'll see more of both, until Daenerys and Aegon fight. And I do agree with you that people believe what they want to believe.

Honestly, who do you think actually knows Aegon is Illyrio's son? And why do you think Varys and Illyrio would be stupid enough to tell anyone about that?

12 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I am not trying to prove you wrong. I am simply supporting my assumptions. You could be correct, but you might be wrong. 

You know, I have seen you criticize other readers for making assumption about what might or might not happen, without proof that it will happen. Isn't that what you are doing here? 

I speculate, too, on occasion. The point here is that something has to happen for there to be a war between Dany and Aegon if such a war happens. And George might even have a real purpose for such an irrelevant character as Belwas.

12 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

What did Tyrion make up? Yes, he suggests that Aegon took the bait, but i read that as him wanting Aegon and Connington to strike now, so he can avenge himself. Keep in mind that when Tyrion gave Aegon that bait, Tyrion was expecting to go with Aegon. So, if Tyrion intended to set the boy up to fail, he was setting himself up to fail as well. Please quote the passage where Tyrion says or muses that he set the boy up to fail.

There is no such quote but you have to keep in mind that Tyrion has no way of reading Dany's mind. The whole thing can be interpreted by her as this guy trying to steal her throne, resulting in a war upon her arrival, not an alliance. And Tyrion was still pretty depressed and not sure whether he wanted to live at this point. He contemplated using Myrcella as pawn to fail to cause his siblings harm. Why should he care more about Aegon's life?

12 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If you can see Aegon and Daenerys treating with each other across the Narrow Sea, why can't you see them allying in Westeros, at least in the beginning?

I can see that, too, but I find it more likely that they won't because this whole alliance would fill even more chapters. I think Aegon will be so successful, at least in the short run, that he simply doesn't need Daenerys. He will be more successful than even Tyrion could imagine thanks the Cersei fucking things up.

And while I don't believe Euron will ever team up with Dany there is still a strong possiblity that this might happen, and then there is no chance whatsoever for a Dany-Aegon alliance of any kind.

But I'm curious, why would Dany and Aegon ally in your mind? And against whom? Euron? Cersei? Both of them? Stannis?

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40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But I'm curious, why would Dany and Aegon ally in your mind? And against whom? Euron? Cersei? Both of them? Stannis?

I suspect Euron's raison d'etre is to put Aegon in a tight spot. 

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7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

<snip

Unless the Second Dance of the Dragons is going to take place in the first half of TWoW - which seems completely impossible to me - Aegon would be dying far too early for my taste. He has far too large a retinue of people around him to go down this early.

Aegon doesn't make sense as a catalyst. As things stand right now his people are not going to join Daenerys but oppose her once she arrives, especially Dorne considering Arianne's feelings for Dany, but without Aegon those people would have little choice but join Daenerys upon her arrival. After all, the thing that keeps them together as a group already is the fact that they are Targaryen loyalists who do not like the Lannisters all that much.

If Aegon turned out to be a catalyst to rally Targaryen loyalists who then can just switch to Dany upon his death - just as many Stormlords and Reach lords switched from Renly to Stannis and Joffrey - then this whole thing could have done without introducing Aegon at all.

<snip

The George has said that the Second Dance will not necessarily have anything to do with Dany invading Westeros. Which means...it may not involve Aegon at all. Aegon is not the one with a horn that supposedly binds dragons to the owner's will.

Could have said the same about Renly, but he didn't last long as king. There are plenty of people who will want Aegon dead, and he'll be fighting a war or two. There's plenty of opportunity for him to end up toes-up.

Actually he does.

-How he presents himself will make a different to what Arianne does. If she marries him, his behavior as her husband will make a big difference to her as a character. If he leaves her a pregnant widow, he's left an heir to be considered in the game. If Aegon rejects Arianne as a bride, that could have dire consequences for him. If she rejects him, it could have dire consequences for him.
-JonCon's entire arc is about protecting Rhaegar's son. What happens if he can't, or if Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son, or if Aegon develops Targ madness?  
-Dany thinks she's the last Targaryen in the world, and will probably think that Aegon is a pretender. If she kills him and then learns that he really was her nephew, she's going to have guilt galore, consider herself a kinslayer, and maybe be a bit less hasty to dismiss Jon when she's told that he's her nephew.
-Tyrion has already toyed with Aegon, successfully getting him to change plans that affect all of the characters when he shows up in Westeros sooner than he was supposed to, and without dragons. If Aegon does as a result of not having Dany and the dragons on his side, what will that mean for Tyrion's opinion of himself? Maybe nothing. Tyrion's a bit harder to predict.
-will Jon have any thoughts regarding the maybe-brother he never met, or met very briefly?
-what will happen if Aegon learns about the Others and abandons his conquest in order to save the realm? Will the GC still support him in that? Will JonCon support him in it? What if he and Stannis meet? Will Stannis put the throne thing aside and work with the kid to save the realm? 
-will Mel try to burn him because of his king's blood?
-if Aegon develops the madness, will Varys have to tearfully kill him "for the realm"? What will it do to Varys to have his perfect prince experiment fail? Will it be a greater failure if he really was Rhaegar's son? Will Varys consider himself a failure and take his own life, or will he learn of Jon, quit with the games and experiments and help save the realm he says is the reason for all of his actions?
 

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16 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I suspect Euron's raison d'etre is to put Aegon in a tight spot. 

Not Daenerys? I mean, he is set up as a main antagonist strongly associated with her since he is both interested in her and her dragons as well as visions indicating that he is a main threat to her.

Nothing foreshadows any clashes between Aegon and Euron and while Aegon doesn't have any ships it is pretty difficult to imagine Euron and him actually fighting a proper battle. And if they did Aegon could easily die. Nobody should be able to protect him from magic, especially not Varys and Illyrio.

And what about the chances of Dany and Euron actually hooking up and marrying each other? I'm not in favor of that idea but I have to admit that there are hints in that direction.

Aegon and Dany marrying each other is considerably less likely.

14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

The George has said that the Second Dance will not necessarily have anything to do with Dany invading Westeros. Which means...it may not involve Aegon at all. Aegon is not the one with a horn that supposedly binds dragons to the owner's will.

One would assume that the Second Dance as a war not having to do anything with Dany's invasion could mean that it might also be fought in Essos or it might be a war between Euron and Aegon.

14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Could have said the same about Renly, but he didn't last long as king. There are plenty of people who will want Aegon dead, and he'll be fighting a war or two. There's plenty of opportunity for him to end up toes-up.

Sure, but what would be a more interesting scenario - Aegon being dead by Dany's arrival and her main antagonist only being Euron and/or Cersei or there being a big clash between Dany, Aegon, Euron, and many houses torn between these three?

I'd say the latter.

14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Actually he does.

-How he presents himself will make a different to what Arianne does. If she marries him, his behavior as her husband will make a big difference to her as a character. If he leaves her a pregnant widow, he's left an heir to be considered in the game. If Aegon rejects Arianne as a bride, that could have dire consequences for him. If she rejects him, it could have dire consequences for him.

I'd actually see Arianne as part of Aegon's retinue. The entire Dornish plot in Westeros seems to lead up to the Dornishmen joining Aegon, and it does not seem likely as if they will be ever keen to join Daenerys after the Quentyn tragedy.

14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

-JonCon's entire arc is about protecting Rhaegar's son. What happens if he can't, or if Aegon isn't Rhaegar's son, or if Aegon develops Targ madness?

There is no Targaryen madness as such. There are Targaryens who are called mad some of which who actually suffer from serious mental afflictions. Aegon could suck as a king and be a huge disappointment to Jon and Varys and many other characters but I don't see him growing mad in record time the same way as Rhaegel or Aerys II were (nor is there any indication that he is as weak as Aenys I or Viserys III or as cruel as Maegor, Daemon, or Aerion, or as eccentric as Baelor I or Aerys I).

Even Aerys II needed the trauma of Duskendale to grow really mad. And I don't think Aegon is going to get such a trauma. 

14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

-Dany thinks she's the last Targaryen in the world, and will probably think that Aegon is a pretender. If she kills him and then learns that he really was her nephew, she's going to have guilt galore, consider herself a kinslayer, and maybe be a bit less hasty to dismiss Jon when she's told that he's her nephew.

That is not a very likely scenario. She isn't the type to kill him in any case, regardless who he is, unless he, personally, does her some great harm.

14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

-Tyrion has already toyed with Aegon, successfully getting him to change plans that affect all of the characters when he shows up in Westeros sooner than he was supposed to, and without dragons. If Aegon does as a result of not having Dany and the dragons on his side, what will that mean for Tyrion's opinion of himself? Maybe nothing. Tyrion's a bit harder to predict.

Well, Tyrion sort of liked the gang but only realized that after Jorah captured him. Then he missed the Shy Maid and his buddies there. Prior to that he was pissed about Connington and complaining a lot.

And Dany never met him. They would both not shed all that many tears.

14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

-will Jon have any thoughts regarding the maybe-brother he never met, or met very briefly?

If Jon learns who he is supposed to be while Aegon is still alive we should assume that he should use that fact to the advantage of the Watch/whatever men are still protecting the Wall, resulting in him either writing a letter to him or perhaps even sending an envoy down there (or perhaps even going himself?).

14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

-what will happen if Aegon learns about the Others and abandons his conquest in order to save the realm? Will the GC still support him in that? Will JonCon support him in it? What if he and Stannis meet? Will Stannis put the throne thing aside and work with the kid to save the realm? 

It is likely that he will only find out about that threat after he has already taken the Iron Throne. It is not likely that he will believe that, though, when gets the first rumors about that. Why should he? But if certain people like, perhaps, Sam and Sarella, tell him about that he might believe it eventually.

Stannis' reaction to Aegon's existence should be interesting.

14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

-will Mel try to burn him because of his king's blood?

She might. Just as she might try to burn Dany or Jon but it is not likely that she is ever getting around to do that.

14 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

-if Aegon develops the madness, will Varys have to tearfully kill him "for the realm"? What will it do to Varys to have his perfect prince experiment fail? Will it be a greater failure if he really was Rhaegar's son? Will Varys consider himself a failure and take his own life, or will he learn of Jon, quit with the games and experiments and help save the realm he says is the reason for all of his actions?

I can see Varys abandoning or even killing Aegon if he disappoints him. If Aegon became infected with greyscale, becoming 'the Stone King', he would be a lost cause. And if Varys realized that Aegon is doomed politically/military he might kill him to save his own neck or work with Dany and Tyrion, just like Aegon II's men poisoned him in the end. 

But I'm not sure Aegon is going to become all that much of failure. It would be more fun if he was a pretty good guy who is going to be put against Daenerys by the way how things unfold.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Not Daenerys? I mean, he is set up as a main antagonist strongly associated with her since he is both interested in her and her dragons as well as visions indicating that he is a main threat to her.

Nothing foreshadows any clashes between Aegon and Euron and while Aegon doesn't have any ships it is pretty difficult to imagine Euron and him actually fighting a proper battle. And if they did Aegon could easily die. Nobody should be able to protect him from magic, especially not Varys and Illyrio.

I am not sure how everything will unfold, of course, but I suspect that Euron, will somehow put Aegon in a tight spot, and that Daenerys will come to Aegon's aid. I suspect that this show down will occur at Storm's End. I suspect Jaime Lannister's role as Cersei's volonqar will be wrapped up with this plotline. I suspect that Daenerys and Aegon will wed and conceive a child, and then I suspect that she will know three treasons that will cause her and Aegon to fight. At least, that's what I am anticipating at this point. 

If it weren't for the sorcery that Euron appears to command, I would put my money on Aegon. He has the Golden Company. He appears to be marshaling the Stormlands. He is likely to ally with Dorne. He might have friends in the Reach. And the Faith could become a very powerful ally. Against that, Euron has most of the Ironmen, but there are indications that a great deal of his support is soft. But until we see how bad ass his voodoo is, it's hard to tell. And will he get his hands on a dragon? I just don't know. I am quite sure that Aegon will eventually ride Rhaegal, but whether the noble lad has to take it from the monster somehow, and how the monster might claim it first given that it's, what, 3,000 miles away, and that Moqorro seems to favor Daenerys over the kraken, I am just not sure. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon and Dany marrying each other is considerably less likely.

While Aegon is showing signs of independence, and Doran might demand that Aegon wed Arianne, Illyrio and Jon Connington appear to be intent of Aegon marrying Daenerys. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

One would assume that the Second Dance as a war not having to do anything with Dany's invasion could mean that it might also be fought in Essos or it might be a war between Euron and Aegon.

I appreciate that many things could happen, but I think the symbolism and Teora's comments require three elements: 1) the dance will be a war; 2) the fight will be between Targaryens (or Blackfyres--Baratheon's would be stretching it a bit); and 3) it will involve actual dragons. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but what would be a more interesting scenario - Aegon being dead by Dany's arrival and her main antagonist only being Euron and/or Cersei or there being a big clash between Dany, Aegon, Euron, and many houses torn between these three?

I trust that the George will entertain us with what ever sequence of alliances and battles he gives us. We have Cersei, Stannis, Euron, Aegon, and Daenerys, and we have to consider the roles of the major houses, the Faith of the Seven, and foreign actors. The Brotherhood without Banners might still play a role, and role might Bloodraven et al. play? 

If Aegon gets wiped out before Daenerys arrives, what narrative purpose will he have served? 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd actually see Arianne as part of Aegon's retinue. The entire Dornish plot in Westeros seems to lead up to the Dornishmen joining Aegon, and it does not seem likely as if they will be ever keen to join Daenerys after the Quentyn tragedy.

No doubt. 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no Targaryen madness as such. There are Targaryens who are called mad some of which who actually suffer from serious mental afflictions. Aegon could suck as a king and be a huge disappointment to Jon and Varys and many other characters but I don't see him growing mad in record time the same way as Rhaegel or Aerys II were (nor is there any indication that he is as weak as Aenys I or Viserys III or as cruel as Maegor, Daemon, or Aerion, or as eccentric as Baelor I or Aerys I).

Even Aerys II needed the trauma of Duskendale to grow really mad. And I don't think Aegon is going to get such a trauma. 

The noble lad reminds me of Daeron the I. 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I can see Varys abandoning or even killing Aegon if he disappoints him. If Aegon became infected with greyscale, becoming 'the Stone King', he would be a lost cause. And if Varys realized that Aegon is doomed politically/military he might kill him to save his own neck or work with Dany and Tyrion, just like Aegon II's men poisoned him in the end. 

But I'm not sure Aegon is going to become all that much of failure. It would be more fun if he was a pretty good guy who is going to be put against Daenerys by the way how things unfold.

Yeah, I don't see Varys having any reason to pull the plug on Aegon. 

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I've always enjoyed the fAegon chapters/storyline. When I first read them I thought it was a viable thing. Now, I feel otherwise, obviously. Yet, I am still interested to see how his attempt plays out and affects the loyalties of Westeros. I enjoy the politics as much if not more than the otherworldly aspects of the series. Also, I love the chaos. Maybe fAegon disrupts what we want to/expect to see happen. And I'm all for that. As long as the series gets finished of course ;)

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On 2.3.2017 at 3:08 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I am not sure how everything will unfold, of course, but I suspect that Euron, will somehow put Aegon in a tight spot, and that Daenerys will come to Aegon's aid. I suspect that this show down will occur at Storm's End. I suspect Jaime Lannister's role as Cersei's volonqar will be wrapped up with this plotline. I suspect that Daenerys and Aegon will wed and conceive a child, and then I suspect that she will know three treasons that will cause her and Aegon to fight. At least, that's what I am anticipating at this point.

I don't think anything of that sort can happen at Storm's End. Aegon should not remain there for long, and if he did, then he should be actually safer from Euron than he would be in KL considering the protective spells in the walls of Storm's End.

I see no reason to believe that the three treasons (if they still are three treasons and not only one or two) are all connected to Aegon. One could, but certainly not all three. Dany's story does not revolve not around Aegon.

If Aegon and Dany would meet at Storm's End the boy would have to sit on his hands for a year, or more.

On 2.3.2017 at 3:08 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

If it weren't for the sorcery that Euron appears to command, I would put my money on Aegon. He has the Golden Company. He appears to be marshaling the Stormlands. He is likely to ally with Dorne. He might have friends in the Reach. And the Faith could become a very powerful ally. Against that, Euron has most of the Ironmen, but there are indications that a great deal of his support is soft. But until we see how bad ass his voodoo is, it's hard to tell. And will he get his hands on a dragon? I just don't know. I am quite sure that Aegon will eventually ride Rhaegal, but whether the noble lad has to take it from the monster somehow, and how the monster might claim it first given that it's, what, 3,000 miles away, and that Moqorro seems to favor Daenerys over the kraken, I am just not sure. 

I think we can predict that Euron is going to take the Arbor should he win against the Redwynes. Then he could intend to conquer Oldtown, or he could wait for news about Victarion and Dany. When things don't turn out as wanted to them to happen - Dany coming to him soon - then he would have to make new plans. That's where I see the Euron-Cersei alliance. But against who they will turn then is completely unclear and impossible to predict at this point.

The Cersei-Jaime fallout I see happening at a later point in the story, possibly much closer to the very end. Cersei has to do a lot crazy stuff for Jaime to kill her. He would not do that to prevent her from doing something bad - there are other means to do that - he would only do it, I think, to punish her for something she actually did.

With his new fancy armor I see Euron more as a potential dragonslayer than a dragonrider.

Aside from Cersei (and thus a lot of monetary assets) and (possibly) the entire West (if Cersei plays her cards right and Aegon can be blamed for the deaths of Tommen and/or Myrcella) Euron could also subdue quite a few of the southern Reach lords. With the Redwynes gone that might their only option to save their oversea trade.

On 2.3.2017 at 3:08 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

While Aegon is showing signs of independence, and Doran might demand that Aegon wed Arianne, Illyrio and Jon Connington appear to be intent of Aegon marrying Daenerys.

Only as long as they think Dany is still alive and still intending to come west. The news they will get very soon are going to bury those hopes. The (dead?) wife of Hizdahr zo Loraq is not the future wife of Aegon. At least not if those men you are talking about have any brains.

And from there the rift between Aegon and Dany will become ever deeper.

The only chance for an alliance I can see is that Aegon wins the Iron Throne and then faces major problems he is not able to resolve when Dany arrives. Then he will have a strong incentive to make an alliance with Dany. If not, then they will become enemies.

I actually like the idea of some sort of weirdo marriage alliance between Dany and Aegon with them struggling for dominance and control within that arrangement, and have suggested that in the past. I just don't think that's a very likely scenario.

On 2.3.2017 at 3:08 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I appreciate that many things could happen, but I think the symbolism and Teora's comments require three elements: 1) the dance will be a war; 2) the fight will be between Targaryens (or Blackfyres--Baratheon's would be stretching it a bit); and 3) it will involve actual dragons.

Honestly, when I first read that chapter I thought it was only a reference to Dany's dragon literally dancing and killing people - Drogon in Daznak's Pit, Rhaegal and Viserion Quentyn and company, and then later even more after their escape.

She talks about dragons dancing and people dying, not about a war. Keep in mind that Arianne 1 would most likely have happened before Quentyn's death when it was written and still supposed to take place in ADwD.

Only George's talk of a Second Dance makes it likely that this is going to be a war. But I honestly don't know whether Teora actually foresaw that war.

On 2.3.2017 at 3:08 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I trust that the George will entertain us with what ever sequence of alliances and battles he gives us. We have Cersei, Stannis, Euron, Aegon, and Daenerys, and we have to consider the roles of the major houses, the Faith of the Seven, and foreign actors. The Brotherhood without Banners might still play a role, and role might Bloodraven et al. play?

I don't expect Bloodraven and Bran to take a side in a stupid mundane war. But they might take steps to reach out and convince people of what actually matters.

I think the Faith and the Dorne plot are part of the Aegon plot already, and the Vale story might also lead into that one. That way Aegon's court could be full of rather interesting people and a lot of scheming.

On 2.3.2017 at 3:08 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

If Aegon gets wiped out before Daenerys arrives, what narrative purpose will he have served?

Pretty much none I can see, actually.

On 2.3.2017 at 3:08 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

The noble lad reminds me of Daeron the I. 

Those are the best parallels. But that guy was actually a very successful king and commander, who was only killed because he was too trusting. Aegon might die young as well, just as Daeron did, but I don't think he will be too trusting. He learned that lesson from Tyrion, and we see already see him acting this way in the two Connington chapters. His speech to actually take charge of the Golden Company and his campaign, and then later to reward Rolly - a man who earned his trust and is not likely to ever betray him - and sort of put Connington into his place. He is making the decisions now, not the old man. Aegon will win his throne himself, he is not going to allow Connington to do that for him.

On 2.3.2017 at 3:08 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Yeah, I don't see Varys having any reason to pull the plug on Aegon. 

There are some reasons imaginable. He gets infected with greyscale. He turns out to be a failure to actually manage the Realm in light of huge crisis (like a major grey plague pandemic, a famine, etc.). Or he sucks in the war against Dany and Varys has to jump ship.

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4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think anything of that sort can happen at Storm's End. Aegon should not remain there for long, and if he did, then he should be actually safer from Euron than he would be in KL considering the protective spells in the walls of Storm's End.

Part of Jon Connington's stated reason for taking Storm's End is that it will give Aegon a secure fortress to retreat to if necessary. 

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I see no reason to believe that the three treasons (if they still are three treasons and not only one or two) are all connected to Aegon. One could, but certainly not all three. Dany's story does not revolve not around Aegon.

I suspect that Illyrio will betray her for blood, Tyrion will betray her for gold, and Aegon will betray her for love. 

The George loves betrayal. From Petyr betraying The Ned to the Ides of Marsh. In The House of the Undying Ones, we were told that Daenerys would know three treasons, so these three treasons better be pretty big. My guess is they will happen at once or in rapid succession in second of the three main narrative conflicts, the Second Dance of the Dragons. But whatever they are, I am thinking they will be real game changers.

15 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If Aegon and Dany would meet at Storm's End the boy would have to sit on his hands for a year, or more.

Well, you have argued elsewhere that nobody's gonna be able to move anyway... But I don't think he will sit still. I expect things will go back and forth and round and round among Cersei, Aegon, Euron. Jaime and Brienne might still have a role to play, and I expect to see a surprise play from way out in left field, like Darkstar or Edric Storm, or someone even more obscure. In any event, Aegon could defend Storm's End for a while if necessary. 

20 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

 

I think we can predict that Euron is going to take the Arbor should he win against the Redwynes. Then he could intend to conquer Oldtown, or he could wait for news about Victarion and Dany. When things don't turn out as wanted to them to happen - Dany coming to him soon - then he would have to make new plans. That's where I see the Euron-Cersei alliance. But against who they will turn then is completely unclear and impossible to predict at this point.

That's what gives savor to this board. 

22 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Cersei-Jaime fallout I see happening at a later point in the story, possibly much closer to the very end. Cersei has to do a lot crazy stuff for Jaime to kill her. He would not do that to prevent her from doing something bad - there are other means to do that - he would only do it, I think, to punish her for something she actually did.

If Cersei's actions lead to the deaths of her children, and if she becomes a mad queen, and of Jaime believes that Aegon is Rhaegar's son, I could totally see Jaime choking the life out of her. 

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

With his new fancy armor I see Euron more as a potential dragonslayer than a dragonrider.

Perhaps. Have you seen any potential foreshadowing of that? 

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Aside from Cersei (and thus a lot of monetary assets) and (possibly) the entire West (if Cersei plays her cards right and Aegon can be blamed for the deaths of Tommen and/or Myrcella) Euron could also subdue quite a few of the southern Reach lords. With the Redwynes gone that might their only option to save their oversea trade.

Those Ironmen must breed like rabbits. Controlling that much territory would require loyalty inspired by love or fear, and/or boots on the ground. I don't see rhe lords of the Reach bowing to Euron willingly, and I don't think the Ironmen have to numbers, especially to project power inland, and especially if Dorne and Aegon aid the the Reach. So an alliance with Cersei might be critical. If he has a dragon or some super duper voodoo, though, all bets are off. 

34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Only as long as they think Dany is still alive and still intending to come west. The news they will get very soon are going to bury those hopes. The (dead?) wife of Hizdahr zo Loraq is not the future wife of Aegon. At least not if those men you are talking about have any brains.

You're right, of course. But we have had some pretty exciting weddings now, why not another. Let's say Aegon agrees to wed Arianne, but then learns that Hizdahr has been killed, or, even better yet, Daenerys shows up in time for the bridal shower. That could make for even more animosity among them. 

46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

And from there the rift between Aegon and Dany will become ever deeper.

The only chance for an alliance I can see is that Aegon wins the Iron Throne and then faces major problems he is not able to resolve when Dany arrives. Then he will have a strong incentive to make an alliance with Dany. If not, then they will become enemies.

I could see that too. And he might become bitter about needing Daenerys's help. 

48 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Honestly, when I first read that chapter I thought it was only a reference to Dany's dragon literally dancing and killing people - Drogon in Daznak's Pit, Rhaegal and Viserion Quentyn and company, and then later even more after their escape.

She talks about dragons dancing and people dying, not about a war. Keep in mind that Arianne 1 would most likely have happened before Quentyn's death when it was written and still supposed to take place in ADwD.

Only George's talk of a Second Dance makes it likely that this is going to be a war. But I honestly don't know whether Teora actually foresaw that war.

I think this is a good place to remove the logician's hat and think about what a "dance of dragons" in George Martin's story means. I think it means war--red war, as he is so fond of saying.

The War of the Five Kings was devastating, and I expect the Second Dance of the Dragons, especially with that nut from Pyke involved, to be even worse. Martin assigned fire and blood to the Targaryens for a reason. At the dawn of the modern era, the Spanish government used the term "fire and blood" to describe its military campaigns against Native Americans in the New World. And the term has been used by authors and commenters to describe other vicious and bloody conflicts. 

58 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't expect Bloodraven and Bran to take a side in a stupid mundane war. But they might take steps to reach out and convince people of what actually matters.

What has Bloodraven been trying to tell Jaime, and why? 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I think the Faith and the Dorne plot are part of the Aegon plot already, and the Vale story might also lead into that one. That way Aegon's court could be full of rather interesting people and a lot of scheming.

The more the better. 

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I don't really care about (f)Aegon, he just appeared to late at the party. I wouldn't lose sleep over it, if he dies. But he is an interesting side character.

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51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Part of Jon Connington's stated reason for taking Storm's End is that it will give Aegon a secure fortress to retreat to if necessary.

That is true, but they would only need it if they lose against the Tyrell army. And if they do that, they will be doomed. Dorne will not join them, and Dany will come too late to save Aegon from Euron (or anyone). The Golden Company will have to be lucky if they can successfully slip back across the Narrow Sea, with or without their pretender.

Thus I think it is not going to be used in that fashion. If Aegon wins he will continue his campaign, and Varys will deliver KL to him somehow. That was always part of his endgame, he must have a plan for how the Targaryens can take the city without much blood. That is crucial to make Aegon appear as a savior.

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I suspect that Illyrio will betray her for blood, Tyrion will betray her for gold, and Aegon will betray her for love.

But what about Mirri, Jorah, Hizdahr, the Green Grace, and Brown Ben? Nothing indicates that those treasons all have to be in the future. And Illyrio isn't somebody Dany trusts particularly - neither is Tyrion as of yet, nor Aegon. She first has to make them their friends before they can really hurt her with a prominent/important betrayal.

That doesn't mean no such betrayals are going to happen, of course, just that I don't think those betrayals have to come from those people.

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The George loves betrayal. From Petyr betraying The Ned to the Ides of Marsh. In The House of the Undying Ones, we were told that Daenerys would know three treasons, so these three treasons better be pretty big. My guess is they will happen at once or in rapid succession in second of the three main narrative conflicts, the Second Dance of the Dragons. But whatever they are, I am thinking they will be real game changers.

Could be. I'm more inclined to believe we'll get one of those in each of the three big chapters of the story. One during the War of the Five Kings (Mirri) another during the Second Dance, and the worst during the War for the Dawn. Or perhaps one during the anti-slavery war. Perhaps Hizdahr is one of those. Who knows, really.

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Well, you have argued elsewhere that nobody's gonna be able to move anyway... But I don't think he will sit still. I expect things will go back and forth and round and round among Cersei, Aegon, Euron. Jaime and Brienne might still have a role to play, and I expect to see a surprise play from way out in left field, like Darkstar or Edric Storm, or someone even more obscure. In any event, Aegon could defend Storm's End for a while if necessary.

He could certainly, but I really think we will have to see him having a lot of success as quickly as possible. Which means he will have to take KL as soon as possible. Then things can get more difficult if Cersei gets away, Euron regroups in the South, and the Reach Lords are desperately calling for help.

I see Jaime - and especially Brienne - stick around until the very end of the books. If he survives his meeting with Catelyn he could begin a new chapter in his life, trying to be Goldenhand the Just (and failing again, of course, but in a less crappy way this time).

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If Cersei's actions lead to the deaths of her children, and if she becomes a mad queen, and of Jaime believes that Aegon is Rhaegar's son, I could totally see Jaime choking the life out of her.

Cersei might end up sitting the Iron Throne eventually, but only as Euron's consort, not in her own right and not now, while the Tyrells control the capital. She cannot make her move now. She has to gain strength and allies, and then she can come back with a vengeance.

I think Jaime will believe Aegon is the real deal but even that shouldn't lead to him murdering Cersei. She is his twin sister, a woman he loves/loved more than his own life. It is hard to get over something as deep and intimate as that. And he doesn't care all that much about his 'children'. He repeatedly says that they aren't his. And when Tyrion admitted he killed Joffrey Jaime let him go.

And we should keep in mind that he choking part there doesn't have to be literal. Could be some sort of metaphor for something Jaime does to Cersei.

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Perhaps. Have you seen any potential foreshadowing of that?

Aside from the fancy armor itself? No. But the armor is a statement in itself. If you ask yourself what you would need to survive walking up to a dragon and hacking it to pieces with a Valyrian steel weapon Valyrian steel armor is the first thing that springs to mind. Dany's dragons are small enough to be killed that way.

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Those Ironmen must breed like rabbits. Controlling that much territory would require loyalty inspired by love or fear, and/or boots on the ground. I don't see rhe lords of the Reach bowing to Euron willingly, and I don't think the Ironmen have to numbers, especially to project power inland, and especially if Dorne and Aegon aid the the Reach. So an alliance with Cersei might be critical. If he has a dragon or some super duper voodoo, though, all bets are off. 

If Euron burns Sunspear and kills Doran and/or Trystane Dorne might no longer matter all that much. An injured enemy is likely to make mistakes, and Euron will exploit that.

But I agree that Euron has to have some real allies to advance on the land. But then, if he uses the carrot rather than the stick in the wake of the defeat of the Redwynes he could make some progress with the Reach Lords. If Aegon is still occupied in the Crownlands and Stormlands at that point he could win the allegiance of some of the lords down there, perhaps even the Hightowers. They are very pissed about Tommen's inaction and they have no reason to believe the rumors about Aegon.

I don't think that's very likely but it is a possibility.

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

You're right, of course. But we have had some pretty exciting weddings now, why not another. Let's say Aegon agrees to wed Arianne, but then learns that Hizdahr has been killed, or, even better yet, Daenerys shows up in time for the bridal shower. That could make for even more animosity among them.

What makes you believe Dany won't take another consort in the Dothraki Sea? Or that she takes a no-nonsense approach now (as Maegor did, when he married Tyanna) and marries Daario upon her return to Slaver's Bay? That would be the end of a Dany-Aegon marriage alliance on her side.

She has no reason to remain free for Aegon. Even when she learns about his existence there is no guarantee that he might not long be dead by the time she gets to Westeros.

And I'd assume that Arianne and Aegon are not going to wait for long if they are marrying. It is quite clear that Arianne came to like the idea of being queen since she learned about the Viserys plan. What do you think her price will be if she agrees to grant Aegon the support of the Dornish armies? It will be his hand, and there will be nothing Connington (or Varys or Illyrio) can do about that. And she will insist that they do it at once/as soon as possible precisely so that he cannot wiggle out of the deal later and marry Daenerys (or somebody else entirely).

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I could see that too. And he might become bitter about needing Daenerys's help. 

Well, if he needs her help really all that much he should be glad rather than bitter. I see trouble for a conflict growing out of such a scenario.

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I think this is a good place to remove the logician's hat and think about what a "dance of dragons" in George Martin's story means. I think it means war--red war, as he is so fond of saying.

The War of the Five Kings was devastating, and I expect the Second Dance of the Dragons, especially with that nut from Pyke involved, to be even worse. Martin assigned fire and blood to the Targaryens for a reason. At the dawn of the modern era, the Spanish government used the term "fire and blood" to describe its military campaigns against Native Americans in the New World. And the term has been used by authors and commenters to describe other vicious and bloody conflicts.

Those are good points, and I buy that overall interpretation for the Second Dance. I just don't necessarily think Teora foresaw that. After all, that is still quite some time in the future. A war between Dany and Aegon is not going to happen in TWoW. At least not in Westeros.

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

What has Bloodraven been trying to tell Jaime, and why? 

That he should save Brienne. Because she is important for the endgame. Because she is a Targaryen descendant (which we effectively learned in TWoIaF).

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1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I suspect that Illyrio will betray her for blood, Tyrion will betray her for gold, and Aegon will betray her for love. 

Tyrion will betray her for gold? I can't see Tyrion being that shallow myself. I think Tyrion is more likely to betray her for love, love of Jaime and not being prepared to destroy him. Aegon will never betray her because they will never be allies.

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If he was truly Aegon, it would be probably too late, unrealistic, and one too many contestant for the IT. But the full Blackfyre speculation, the dilemma for Daenerys if he becomes king and good for Westeros. It would be, IMO, fantastic!

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