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Most precise ASOIAF timeline v.3

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1 hour ago, direpupy said:

Daenerys I, Game

She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight, while a raging summer storm threatened to rip the island fastness apart. They said that storm was terrible. The Targaryen fleet was smashed while it lay at anchor, and huge stone blocks were ripped from the parapets and sent hurtling into the wild waters of the narrow sea. Her motherhad died birthing her, and for that her brother Viserys had never forgiven her.

Nine moons is not the same as nine months, a moon is four weeks while a month is four weeks and two or three days. Thus nine moons is only 36 weeks instead of the 39 that make up nine months. Also a pregnancy is actually 40 to 42 weeks so if Dany was born nine moons after the flight, Rhaella should already have been pregnant for a couple of weeks already. so the timeline not matching up is actually even more complicated then you thought.

Not helpful in solving your issue i know but is just wanted to give you a heads up that the situation is actually even more complex then you thought.

12 moon turns equal one year...

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[What is the cycle of a year? Why do they count years when seasons are strange?]

Twelve moon tuns to a year, as on earth. Even on our earth, years have nothing to do with the seasons, or with the cycles of the moon. A year is a measure of a solar cycle, of how long it takes the earth to make one complete revolution around the sun. The same is true for the world of Westeros. Seasons do not come into it.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2008/07

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23 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

12 moon turns equal one year...

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2008/07

Hmm that's interesting, in your quote he says just like on earth. But on earth its not 12 moon turns to a solar year but 12 and a half moon turns to one solar year. I guess GRRM simply did not know this, but it does mean that a moon is equal to a month in Westeros.

Thanks for the information and the trouble of looking up the SSM.

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10 minutes ago, direpupy said:

Hmm that's interesting, in your quote he says just like on earth. But on earth its not 12 moon turns to a solar year but 12 and a half moon turns to one solar year. I guess GRRM simply did not know this, but it does mean that a moon is equal to a month in Westeros.

Thanks for the information and the trouble of looking up the SSM.

There are A LOT of astronomical things that are inconsistent between ASOIAF and the real world. But the rule of thumb in figuring ASOIAF dates is 30 days to a moon's turn and 12 moon's turns to a year. 

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1 hour ago, direpupy said:

Actually since she was born on the day of that massive storm and the events of Roberts rebellion being well known, Dany can very easily check for herself if the story's are true. And she would have heard the story from Willem Darry not Visery's.

But really it was in response to the post by TheSeason above mine maybe you should read that if you want to know what the problem with the timeline is. My own post was meant as additional information for him/her.

Errr - Dany was a toddler when she last saw William Darry. If the guy she remembers as Darry even was him at all. So any timeline info she knows that could at least possibly be accurate can only come from Viserys.

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3 minutes ago, Amris said:

Errr - Dany was a toddler when she last saw William Darry. If the guy she remembers as Darry even was him at all. So any timeline info she knows that could at least possibly be accurate can only come from Viserys.

Errr- no Dany was 5 when he became sick and 6 when he finally died after slowly having wasted away. a toddler is a child between 12 and 36 months so 1 to 3 years old. And between the Facts of Roberts rebellion being well known and the date of the storm that raged when she was born she need not have gotten the information from anyone she could have figured it out on her own.

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10 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

There are A LOT of astronomical things that are inconsistent between ASOIAF and the real world. But the rule of thumb in figuring ASOIAF dates is 30 days to a moon's turn and 12 moon's turns to a year. 

Again thanks :D

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To @direpupy, @Lost Melnibonean, and @Amris... thank you for weighing in. I appreciate your thoughts so far. 

13 hours ago, direpupy said:

Daenerys I, Game

She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight, while a raging summer storm threatened to rip the island fastness apart. They said that storm was terrible. The Targaryen fleet was smashed while it lay at anchor, and huge stone blocks were ripped from the parapets and sent hurtling into the wild waters of the narrow sea. Her motherhad died birthing her, and for that her brother Viserys had never forgiven her.

Nine moons is not the same as nine months, a moon is four weeks while a month is four weeks and two or three days. Thus nine moons is only 36 weeks instead of the 39 that make up nine months. Also a pregnancy is actually 40 to 42 weeks so if Dany was born nine moons after the flight, Rhaella should already have been pregnant for a couple of weeks already. so the timeline not matching up is actually even more complicated then you thought.

Not helpful in solving your issue i know but is just wanted to give you a heads up that the situation is actually even more complex then you thought.

In the real world, nine moons is not the same as nine months, I know, but in Planetos it is. LM already showed you the SMS that asserts twelve moons is a year. I think Martin might be using the lunar phases very roughly, with the time from each new moon to the next equaling at least thirty days, and counting that more-or-less as "a year." It's a sloppy shorthand he uses, but he's clearly using it. 

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Cat of the Canals, Feast

"You lie. You are Cat of the canals, I know you well. Go and sleep, child. On the morrow you must serve."

"All men must serve." And so she did, three days of every thirty. When the moon was black she was no one, a servant of the Many-Faced God in a robe of black and white. She walked beside the kindly man through the fragrant darkness, carrying her iron lantern. She washed the dead, went through their clothes, and counted out their coins. Some days she still helped Umma cook, chopping big white mushrooms and boning fish. But only when the moon was black. The rest of the time she was an orphan girl in a pair of battered boots too big for her feet and a brown cloak with a ragged hem, crying "Mussels and cockles and clams" as she wheeled her barrow through the Ragman's Harbor.

The moon would be black tonight, she knew; last night it had been no more than a sliver. "What do you know that you did not know when you left us?" the kindly man would ask as soon as he saw her. I know that Brusco's daughter Brea meets a boy on the roof when her father is asleep, she thought. Brea lets him touch her, Talea says, even though he's just a roof rat and all the roof rats are supposed to be thieves. That was only one thing, though. Cat would need two more. She was not concerned. There were always new things to learn, down by the ships.

I also know that a pregnancy runs longer and is more complicated than most people think. Most people think a pregnancy is about nine months, give-or-take, but is actually much closer to ten months give-or-take (time for fertilization, time for travel down fallopian tube, time to embed in uterin wall, etc.), but I don't know that the author knows this or that the author trusts his reader to know this (most folks use nine month shorthand for pregnancy, with under nine month mark being premature and over the nine month mark being overdue. There's some evidence in the text, I think, that suggests Martin is using the nine moon/nine month shorthand like most other authors (and regular people) do. 

Thank you for bringing up the possibility that Martin is using the more modern scientific definition of a full-term pregnancy. 

12 hours ago, Amris said:

How can we assume Dany's recollection of events is accurate to a day (or even to a week)? They are the recollections of a child who has heard it second hand from her brother who himself was only eight years old at the time. This leaves GRRM a lot of wiggle room.

That said: Even if we did assume Dany's memory is 100% accurate to the day the timeline works out:

For instance if the rape happened approximately two weeks before the battle of the trident then a couple of days pass (up to a week maybe) before Rhaella and Viserys are sent to dragonstone. So Rhaella would have been pregnant for about 2 1/2 to 3 weeks before she left for dragonstone. Another nine moons (or 36 weeks) means Dany was born about 39 weeks after conception. A little early actually but not impossibly so.

Or maybe the rape happened not two weeks but three weeks before the trident. Then Dany would have been born 40 weeks after conception or on time really.

The only thing that then does not fit is that Rossart according to Tyrion was only hand for a fortnight. It must have been at least a couple of days more than that. And why not? It's not like Tyrion was counting out days when he told that story.

You seem to be arguing that we should discard out-of-hand any specific date or timeline, regardless of source or corroboration by multiple sources (Dany, Stannis, Davos, Alleras, Mollander, at least), in order to make it fit to your timeline of events. Martin does not have the wiggle room you suggest he does, because he’s given such express dates/times/order of events.

We know that Dany was born “nine moons” after the Sack of King’s Landing, that Rossart was killed by Jaime during the Sack of King’s Landing, ending his term of service, that he served Aerys as Hand of the King for a “fortnight” following Chelsted’s resignation and burning (Jaime links these two events with some immediacy), that Chelsted learned of the wildfire plot, prompting his resignation, that “all [Jaime’s] sworn brothers were away” so he “heard it all,” that Rhaella fled for Dragonstone a week after Chelsted’s burning and a week before the Sack of King’s Landing, upon learning of Rhaegar’s death on the Trident.

We also know that it takes about two weeks to travel from the Trident (Darry castle and the Ruby Ford, per Eddard, his arrival in KL), with urgency, to King’s Landing (and a little longer, with leisure, per Robert’s arrival afterward). So we have to give Rhaegar, L Martell, Darry, and Selmy ten to fourteen days to travel from King’s Landing to the Ruby Ford with their army, time to battle (there’s text evidence the battle lasted less than a day*), and time (ten to fourteen days) for Ned’s and Tywin’s armies to travel from the Trident to King’s Landing and Casterly Rock to King’s Landing, respectively, after Rhaegar’s death on the Trident (Jaime tells us, specifically, that “the Trident decided [Tywin]” and precipitated the Sack of King’s Landing).

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Eddard IV, Game

"Another day," Ned said. Perhaps too sharply, from the looks they gave him. He would have to remember that he was no longer in Winterfell, where only the king stood higher; here, he was but first among equals. "Forgive me, my lords," he said in a softer tone. "I am tired. Let us call a halt for today and resume when we are fresher." He did not ask for their consent, but stood abruptly, nodded at them all, and made for the door.

Outside, wagons and riders were still pouring through the castle gates, and the yard was a chaos of mud and horseflesh and shouting men. The king had not yet arrived, he was told. Since the ugliness on the Trident, the Starks and their household had ridden well ahead of the main column, the better to separate themselves from the Lannisters and the growing tension. Robert had hardly been seen; the talk was he was traveling in the huge wheelhouse, drunk as often as not. If so, he might be hours behind, but he would still be here too soon for Ned's liking. He had only to look at Sansa's face to feel the rage twisting inside him once again. The last fortnight of their journey had been a misery. Sansa blamed Arya and told her that it should have been Nymeria who died. And Arya was lost after she heard what had happened to her butcher's boy. Sansa cried herself to sleep, Arya brooded silently all day long, and Eddard Stark dreamed of a frozen hell reserved for the Starks of Winterfell.

He crossed the outer yard, passed under a portcullis into the inner bailey, and was walking toward what he thought was the Tower of the Hand when Littlefinger appeared in front of him. "You're going the wrong way, Stark. Come with me."

*The Battle of the Trident was incredibly brief, perhaps lasting less than a day. We’re told the Robert’s allied rebels fell upon Rhaegar crossing the Trident (Ser Jorah, I believe), and that Walder Frey is dubbed by Hoster Tully “the Late Lord Frey” for not arriving at the battle in time to fight—and nor did Ned himself?**--because Rhaegar’s army “broke and ran” when their prince fell to Robert Baratheon, with some few lingering to scrape up rubies from the bloody river (don’t know how they could even see those tiny gems in a bloody river, but—poetic license!).

**We’re told by Ned himself that he arrived to the Ruby Ford too late to see what happened between Rhaegar and Robert, despite the fact that he rather eloquently describes for the reader what happened there (Martin is cleverly hinting to us that things did not go down between Rhaegar and Robert has Robert has perpetuated to us and that Ned has seemingly corroborated. Ned was probably “leading from the rear”—like Rhaegar should have done(!)—and never struck a single blow at the Trident.)

Quote

Eddard I, Game

"Only once," Robert said bitterly.

They had come together at the ford of the Trident while the battle crashed around them, Robert with his warhammer and his great antlered helm, the Targaryen prince armored all in black. On his breastplate was the three-headed dragon of his House, wrought all in rubies that flashed like fire in the sunlight. The waters of the Trident ran red around the hooves of their destriers as they circled and clashed, again and again, until at last a crushing blow from Robert's hammer stove in the dragon and the chest beneath it. When Ned had finally come on the scene, Rhaegar lay dead in the stream, while men of both armies scrabbled in the swirling waters for rubies knocked free of his armor.

"In my dreams, I kill him every night," Robert admitted. "A thousand deaths will still be less than he deserves."

 

It isn't really Dany's memory that's the problem with this timeline--it's Stannis's memory (and Robert's, Ned's, Alleras's/Sarella's, and everyone else who speak about the iconic storm). Stannis sailed into Dragonstone within days of Dany's birth, when she and her brother were "stolen" from the guards by Ser Willem Darry and four loyal men, and shipped to Essos on the (singular? one of the few?) remaining ships with Viserys. The timeline is very tight. 

The storm rages and Dany is born on the same day, Stannis sets sail with his new-built fleet soon after, it takes approximately three days to reach Dragonstone from King's Landing (it was a royal fleet, so I believe it should have been built there, but perhaps it came from Storm's End, which sounds like a dangerous prospect to me, given autumn and winter storms around that location, and it took almost a year to build the fleet, so...), so Stannis's arrival should have been within a week of Dany's birth and the destruction of the Targaryen fleet (a "divine" stroke of victory for the new regime!) on Dragonstone. 

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Prologue, Clash

"Surely half a kingdom is better than none," Cressen said, "and if you help the boy avenge his father's murder—"

"Why should I avenge Eddard Stark? The man was nothing to me. Oh, Robert loved him, to be sure. Loved him as a brother, how often did I hear that? I was his brother, not Ned Stark, but you would never have known it by the way he treated me. I held Storm's End for him, watching good men starve while Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne feasted within sight of my walls. Did Robert thank me? No. He thanked Stark, for lifting the siege when we were down to rats and radishes. I built a fleet at Robert's command, took Dragonstone in his name. Did he take my hand and say, Well done, brother, whatever should I do without you? No, he blamed me for letting Willem Darry steal away Viserys and the babe, as if I could have stopped it. I sat on his council for fifteen years, helping Jon Arryn rule his realm while Robert drank and whored, but when Jon died, did my brother name me his Hand? No, he went galloping off to his dear friend Ned Stark, and offered him the honor. And small good it did either of them."

"Be that as it may, my lord," Maester Cressen said gently. "Great wrongs have been done you, but the past is dust. The future may yet be won if you join with the Starks. There are others you might sound out as well. What of Lady Arryn? If the queen murdered her husband, surely she will want justice for him. She has a young son, Jon Arryn's heir. If you were to betroth Shireen to him—"

 

Davos I, Dance

Candlelight gleamed in Lord Godric's black eyes. "If it were, you'd be in chains. It's the queen who rules."

Davos understood. He nurses doubts. He does not want to find himself upon the losing side. "Stannis held Storm's End against the Tyrells and the Redwynes. He took Dragonstone from the last Targaryens. He smashed the Iron Fleet off Fair Isle. This child king will not prevail against him."

"This child king commands the wealth of Casterly Rock and the power of Highgarden. He has the Boltons and the Freys." Lord Godric rubbed his chin. "Still … in this world only winter is certain. Ned Stark told my father that, here in this very hall."

 

Daenerys I, Game

Yet sometimes Dany would picture the way it had been, so often had her brother told her the stories. The midnight flight to Dragonstone, moonlight shimmering on the ship's black sails. Her brother Rhaegar battling the Usurper in the bloody waters of the Trident and dying for the woman he loved. The sack of King's Landing by the ones Viserys called the Usurper's dogs, the lords Lannister and Stark. Princess Elia of Dorne pleading for mercy as Rhaegar's heir was ripped from her breast and murdered before her eyes. The polished skulls of the last dragons staring down sightlessly from the walls of the throne room while the Kingslayer opened Father's throat with a golden sword.

She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight, while a raging summer storm threatened to rip the island fastness apart. They said that storm was terrible. The Targaryen fleet was smashed while it lay at anchor, and huge stone blocks were ripped from the parapets and sent hurtling into the wild waters of the narrow sea. Her mother had died birthing her, and for that her brother Viserys had never forgiven her.

She did not remember Dragonstone either. They had run again, just before the Usurper's brother set sail with his new-built fleet. By then only Dragonstone itself, the ancient seat of their House, had remained of the Seven Kingdoms that had once been theirs. It would not remain for long. The garrison had been prepared to sell them to the Usurper, but one night Ser Willem Darry and four loyal men had broken into the nursery and stolen them both, along with her wet nurse, and set sail under cover of darkness for the safety of the Braavosian coast.

 

Prologue, Feast

"No," said Alleras. "It was Prince Rhaegar's young son Aegon whose head was dashed against the wall by the Lion of Lannister's brave men. We speak of Rhaegar's sister, born on Dragonstone before its fall. The one they called Daenerys."

"The Stormborn. I recall her now." Mollander lifted his tankard high, sloshing the cider that remained. "Here's to her!" He gulped, slammed his empty tankard down, belched, and wiped his mouth with the back of his hand. "Where's Rosey? Our rightful queen deserves another round of cider, wouldn't you say?"

Armen the Acolyte looked alarmed. "Lower your voice, fool. You should not even jape about such things. You never know who could be listening. The Spider has ears everywhere."

None of these characters seem to find anything wrong with the timeline or story Dany told us. In fact, we are told that this information (tying Dany to the iconic storm days prior to Stannis taking Dragonstone) is more-or-less common knowledge. Martin does this cleverly, again, by letting Mollander proffer this information (“The Stormborn. I recall her now[.]”) to the reader, rather than Alleras/Sarella (who might have had insider info, being the daughter of Oberyn Martell).

The timeline reads pretty tight. This why I pinned down “Ser Jon Darry guarding Rhaella’s bedchamber door with Jaime during Rhaella’s rape” as the mistake in the timeline.

 

10 hours ago, Amris said:

Errr - Dany was a toddler when she last saw William Darry. If the guy she remembers as Darry even was him at all. So any timeline info she knows that could at least possibly be accurate can only come from Viserys.

 

Viserys was eight-ish and a reliable enough source on this matter. Remember, for Viserys this iconic storm is not the day Dany was born, but the day that Dany killed his beloved mother coming into the world, which is why he holds it against her (“Their mother died birthing her, and for that her brother Viserys had never forgiven her.”). Soon after his mother’s death, Ser Willem Darry sails him (and Dany) away from his kingdom into exile, obscurity, and poverty in Essos for protection. Dragonstone was the last of his kingdom, the ancestral seat of his house, and he had to flee from it into exile, disempowered and hopeless, almost sold to his (and Dany’s) death by his own garrison, because this iconic storm destroyed the last vestige of Targaryen power in Westeros (his fleet, which might have smashed the rebel fleet at sea and precipitated a comeback for his family in Westeros—or so he might believe, as an eight year old). [“She did not remember Dragonstone either. They had run again, just before the Usurper's brother set sail with his new-built fleet. By then only Dragonstone itself, the ancient seat of their House, had remained of the Seven Kingdoms that had once been theirs. It would not remain for long. The garrison had been prepared to sell them to the Usurper, but one night Ser Willem Darry and four loyal men had broken into the nursery and stolen them both, along with her wet nurse, and set sail under cover of darkness for the safety of the Braavosian coast.”]

 

Viserys loved his mother, memorialized her (“I sold our mother’s crown to keep you fed!” Their mother’s crown was the last of their treasures and possessions, the one thing he could not bear to part with—next to Dany herself, his own sister-bride, sold to a savage Dothraki horselord for an army; so it is no wonder that with these two grievous injuries to his pride, coupled with being called “the Begger King” and “the Cart King” and treating with the traitorous Golden Company for aid, only to be laughed away, that we witness Viserys’s mental deterioration during Game), and her death would have been burned in his memory.

 

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On 4-10-2017 at 1:02 PM, TheSeason said:

I don't know that this is the proper place to ask this question, as it doesn't exactly pertain to the chapter order or current event timelines of the novels. It's a question about the timeline extending into the past, actually. If @Rhaenys Targaryen or someone who knows better than I do about such matters (I don't really pay attention to timelines or travel speeds, but this document is rather amazing! Kudos to all who have worked on or contributed to making it better!) would deign to weigh in here... 

In another topic, we were discussing the exact(ish) timeline of the Harrenhal tourney, Aegon VI's conception and birth, Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna, Jon and Dany's conception/birth dates, Rhaegar's departure from King's Landing for the Battle of the Trident, Chelsted's resignation and burning, Rhaella's rape by Aerys II, Rossart's brief (fortnight) reign as Hand of the King, etc., as it relates to Dany's conception and birth, the storm that smashed the Targaryen fleet, and Darry's flight with Viserys and Dany to Braavos, and there appears to be a mistake (either the author made a mistake in the timeline or Jaime has a mistaken memory of what happened/who was with him, if anyone, at the time of Dany's conception). 

The mistake: Jaime remembers that Jonothor "Jon" Darry  was guarding Rhaella's bedchamber door with him the night that Aerys II raped Rhaella (conceiving Dany), following Chelsted's resignation and burning, and the appointment of Lord Rossart to office of Hand of the King (should take place sometime during the Battle of the Trident). However, Jon Darry should have left for the Trident with Rhaegar already, as he is stated to have died in the Battle of the Trident (alongside Prince Rhaegar, Llewyn Martell, and--almost, earning a grievous injury!--Barristan Selmy). As LC Gerold Hightower, Oswell Whent, and Arthur Dayne were guarding the Tower of Joy at this time (in the Red Mountains of Dorne, where Lyanna--and, later, Jon--was (likely) located), it seems that Jaime should have been guarding the door alone that night. There is a possibility (a very small one?) that Jaime has confused Ser Willem Darry, the master-at-arms of the Red Keep (who fled to Dragonstone with Rhaella and Viserys, who protected Viserys and Dany from the soldiers who wanted to sell them to Robert Baratheon, who fled across the Narrow Sea to Braavos with Viserys and Dany a day before Stannis arrived at Dragonstone, managing to keep them safe) with his sworn brother of the Kingsguard, Ser Jonothor Darry, but I find that particularly doubtful (it's a hard switch to make, between a "brother" and a "brother's" relative!). There are some other (dubious) possibilities I list in my comment (in spoiler tag below). [Jaime also alleges that Barristan Selmy was (most likely) present in King's Landing at this time also (Rhaella's rape by Aerys/Dany's conception), when he asks Rhaegar to appoint Selmy to guard Aerys II instead of himself--this, when they were leaving for the Battle of the Trident--probably because of the trauma of standing outside the door and doing nothing whilst Rhaella was raped (and other injurious complicities inflicted upon Kingsguard knights).]

Not only is Jon Darry stated to have died on the Trident, but he was also with Rhaegar in Jaime's memory of Rhaegar's departure, with Jaime asking for another to be left behind instead of him, indirectly stating that Darry left, too.

 

Rossart was Hand for a fortnight, and his appointment took place after Chelsted's death. TWOIAF states the following:

Birds flew and couriers raced to bear word of the victory at the Ruby Ford. When the news reached the Red Keep, it was said that Aerys cursed the Dornish, certain that Lewyn had betrayed Rhaegar. He sent his pregnant queen, Rhaella, and his younger son and new heir, Viserys, away to Dragonstone, but Princess Elia was forced to remain in King's Landing with Rhaegar's children as a hostage against Dorne. Having burned his previous Hand, Lord Chelsted, alive for bad counsel during the war, Aerys now appointed another to the position: the alchemist Rossart—a man of low birth, with little to recommend him but his flames and trickery.

According to Maester Yandel, some time passed between Chelsted's death and Rossart's appointment. Rossart was only appointed after Rhaegar had died on the Trident. In other words, Rossart's fortnight started after Rhaegar's death.

Assuming that the rebel army took a (few) day(s) to decide their further course of action, we can say that it took Eddard ~a fortnight to race from the Trident with his army to KL, to arrive in time to see the end of the Sack (which is when Rossart's fortnight ended). This fits with other examples we have been given in text: In AGOT, Eddard, a large part of his household, and the royal court, take two weeks to travel from castle Darry (half a day away from the site of battle) to KL, without any delays and with relative speed (whereas earlier on in the journey, the group had halted their journey for several days in total to hunt, for example); Aemond Targaryen marched an army from KL to Harrenhal (slightly further than the Trident) in nineteen days. So Eddard taking about ~a fortnight is supported by other textual examples.

 

Most believe that Dany was conceived when Chelsted was burned. In that case, between Dany's conception and the Sack, it appears ~a month passed, as it would likely have taken Rhaegar's army about as long to travel towards the Trident from KL as it took Eddard to travel in the other direction. 

Which brings us to...

On 4-10-2017 at 2:44 PM, Amris said:

How can we assume Dany's recollection of events is accurate to a day (or even to a week)? They are the recollections of a child who has heard it second hand from her brother who himself was only eight years old at the time. This leaves GRRM a lot of wiggle room.

 

.. This. Sure, Dany is likely not giving us a specific amount of "days". But..

She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight,

Nine months after the flight from KL, which in turn would have taken place somewhere between two to four weeks after Chelsted's death.

Given that Aerys had named Viserys his heir, instead of Rhaegar's son, and the desire to get his heir and wife to safety, the decision for Aerys to send Viserys and Rhaella away likely took place closer to two weeks after Chelsted's death (i.e. within a few days after Rhaegar's death), than a day or two before the Sack took place.

So when Rhaella left KL, (assuming that Dany was indeed conceived the night Chelsted burned) she likely would have been pregnant for slightly more than two weeks.

Now, whether Rhaella gave birth 8,5 months later (indicating a nine-month pregnancy), or nine full months later (being 2 weeks overdue), rounding 8,5 months up to 9 is quite normal. It wouldn't be the only time in ASOIAF that it happens :)

 

23 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

There are A LOT of astronomical things that are inconsistent between ASOIAF and the real world. But the rule of thumb in figuring ASOIAF dates is 30 days to a moon's turn and 12 moon's turns to a year. 

Indeed, with Arya providing us with that "thirty days per moon" information:

And so she did, three days of every thirty. When the moon was black she was no one, a servant of the Many-Faced God in a robe of black and white.

 

12 hours ago, TheSeason said:

To @direpupy, @Lost Melnibonean, and @Amris... thank you for weighing in. I appreciate your thoughts so far. 

In the real world, nine moons is not the same as nine months, I know, but in Planetos it is. LM already showed you the SMS that asserts twelve moons is a year. I think Martin might be using the lunar phases very roughly, with the time from each new moon to the next equaling at least thirty days, and counting that more-or-less as "a year." It's a sloppy shorthand he uses, but he's clearly using it. 

I also know that a pregnancy runs longer and is more complicated than most people think. Most people think a pregnancy is about nine months, give-or-take, but is actually much closer to ten months give-or-take (time for fertilization, time for travel down fallopian tube, time to embed in uterin wall, etc.), but I don't know that the author knows this or that the author trusts his reader to know this (most folks use nine month shorthand for pregnancy, with under nine month mark being premature and over the nine month mark being overdue. There's some evidence in the text, I think, that suggests Martin is using the nine moon/nine month shorthand like most other authors (and regular people) do. 

 

Indeed. 

Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south.

There was never a maid that he deflowered who did not deliver a strong son or fair daughter nine moons later, or so the stories say.

In nine months time, these maids all give birth to golden-haired children whilst still insisting they had never had carnal knowledge of a man.

12 hours ago, TheSeason said:

We know that Dany was born “nine moons” after the Sack of King’s Landing (*), that Rossart was killed by Jaime during the Sack of King’s Landing, ending his term of service, that he served Aerys as Hand of the King for a “fortnight” following Chelsted’s resignation and burning (Jaime links these two events with some immediacy)(**), that Chelsted learned of the wildfire plot, prompting his resignation, that “all [Jaime’s] sworn brothers were away” so he “heard it all,” that Rhaella fled for Dragonstone a week after Chelsted’s burning and a week before the Sack of King’s Landing, upon learning of Rhaegar’s death on the Trident.

*After Rhaella's flight to Dragonstone, not after the Sack of KL. There's a difference.

**Jaime is listing the order of events, but does not give a timeframe. Aerys had Chelsted burned, and the next to be appointed to the office was Rossart. And while Jaime does not specify a timeframe, Yandel does. The appointment took place after the Trident. As to why Aerys would have waited ~two weeks to appoint a new Hand, we can only speculate about. Was this an understanding between Aerys and Rhaegar ("I win this battle for our house, and you name me Hand")? We have yet to learn.

 

But Chelsted confronting Aerys while Rhaegar was still in KL makes sense. Aerys was still in charge, despite the fact that Rhaegar was in charge of the army. Leading the royal army does not mean he was "acting as the king"... Aerys still had a higher authority than Rhaegar, and both were aware. Rhaegar leaving Jaime at KL ("My royal sire fears your father more than he does our cousin Robert. He wants you close, so Lord Tywin cannot harm him. I dare not take that crutch away from him at such an hour.") is a small price to pay for a continueing peace between father and son. So Rhaegar refusing to take Jaime along says nothing about their balance of power.

Additionally, why would Chelsted go to Rhaegar with the information, when Rhaegar is soon to leave the city? Rhaegar has  to leave; He leads the army, and the rebels are approaching. The trust Aerys suddenly has in Rhaegar (giving him the charge of the army) despite his earlier mistrust, might suggest that father and son had formed somewhat of an (uneasy) alliance (although Rhaegar makes it clear that he does intend to "change" things, which might point back to the position of Hand still being open when he leaves, following Chelsted's death).

 

 

12 hours ago, TheSeason said:

Viserys loved his mother, memorialized her (“I sold our mother’s crown to keep you fed!” Their mother’s crown was the last of their treasures and possessions, the one thing he could not bear to part with—next to Dany herself, his own sister-bride, sold to a savage Dothraki horselord for an army; so it is no wonder that with these two grievous injuries to his pride, coupled with being called “the Begger King” and “the Cart King” and treating with the traitorous Golden Company for aid, only to be laughed away, that we witness Viserys’s mental deterioration during Game), and her death would have been burned in his memory.

Viserys was crowned by his mother on Dragonstone, and I suspect that the crown used to do so was a temporary one, the only one available: Rhaella's. Which means that when he sold his mother's crown, he also in a way sold his own.

 

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I apologize for the lateness of my reply Rhaenys Targaryen. I hadn't been feeling so well of late, and dropped off the face of the interwebs for a bit (and consequently the face of the world, lol). I take it you think the timeline fits well. I'm still turning it in my mind, and thank you for your advice. I'm still having a little trouble making sense of it all, though, as I'm not really one to pay attention to things like this in a novel. 

On ‎10‎/‎5‎/‎2017 at 10:49 AM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Not only is Jon Darry stated to have died on the Trident, but he was also with Rhaegar in Jaime's memory of Rhaegar's departure, with Jaime asking for another to be left behind instead of him, indirectly stating that Darry left, too.

Yeah. That's really my problem with this whole idea. It seems to involve two conflicting characterizations--at least to me--with Jaime needing someone on the door to restrain him from doing something stupid (which fits, except for Darry's presence, to my mind) and Rhaegar actually loving his family (leaving them in King's Landing to Aerys's mercy if he knew about the Chelsted incident just flies in the face of what we know about Rhaegar, who prior to JonCon's exile finally admitted that his father was stark raving mad, and therefore could go through with a plan like that, or even accidentally cause a conflagration). I just can't square these two things, which is why it reads like a discrepancy to me. 

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Rossart was Hand for a fortnight, and his appointment took place after Chelsted's death. TWOIAF states the following:

Birds flew and couriers raced to bear word of the victory at the Ruby Ford. When the news reached the Red Keep, it was said that Aerys cursed the Dornish, certain that Lewyn had betrayed Rhaegar. He sent his pregnant queen, Rhaella, and his younger son and new heir, Viserys, away to Dragonstone, but Princess Elia was forced to remain in King's Landing with Rhaegar's children as a hostage against Dorne. Having burned his previous Hand, Lord Chelsted, alive for bad counsel during the war, Aerys now appointed another to the position: the alchemist Rossart—a man of low birth, with little to recommend him but his flames and trickery.

According to Maester Yandel, some time passed between Chelsted's death and Rossart's appointment. Rossart was only appointed after Rhaegar had died on the Trident. In other words, Rossart's fortnight started after Rhaegar's death.

I'm not certain I see the gap you're indicating. Jaime and Yandel are linking these two events with some immediacy (by immediacy, I mean that the events are closely linked together, maybe a few days apart at most, but a significant gap, like two weeks or more, feels very wrong). Jaime says it in a single sentence, linking the two events ("Aerys burnt him alive for that, and hung his chain about the neck of Rossart, his favorite pyromancer.") which could even be read as a single event rather than two (that is, happening in the same day, or even in the same event). And Yandel, in your quote above, repeats that immediacy or urgency ("Having burned his previous Hand, Lord Chelsted, alive for bad counsel during the war, Aerys now appointed another to the position: the alchemist Rossart--a man of low birth, with little to recommend him but his flames and his trickery.") with a single sentence, again linking the two events (although I can see how this one can be read as indicating some sort of gap). Jaime also mentions, like Yandel, in another quote I mentioned before, that Rossart's sole qualification was love of wildfire (see below), so it feels like a very rash decision made in the height of Aerys's madness or mania following his pyromaniac high, rather than something he actually took the time to deliberate, with a significant enough gap to account for even a single moment of lucidity (which, he had at least "half" of one, in spiriting his chosen heir and wife away, with the royal fleet, if it was accompanied by paranoid madness regarding a Dornish betrayal and keeping his Dornish family members--Rhaegar's family--hostage, so they could not inherit him after their "betrayal."). I know that Jaime says Rhaegar was in the Red Keep when the plans and wildfire caching started, but he does add that all "my sworn brothers were away... So I heard it all" in the context of the wildfire plot and Chelsted's burning. With so much confusion and discrepancy, it's a miracle you guys have worked out any timeline at all! :idea:

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I'd thought the man craven, but the day he confronted Aerys he found some courage somewhere. He did all he could to dissuade him. He reasoned, he jested, he threatened, and finally he begged. When that failed he took off his chain of office and flung it down on the floor. Aerys burnt him alive for that, and hung his chain about the neck of Rossart, his favorite pyromancer.

 

 

"I'd thought the man craven, but the day he confronted Aerys he found some courage somewhere. He did all he could to dissuade him. He reasoned, he jested, he threatened, and finally he begged. When that failed he took off his chain of office and flung it down on the floor. Aerys burnt him alive for that, and hung his chain about the neck of Rossart, his favorite pyromancer.

 

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Assuming that the rebel army took a (few) day(s) to decide their further course of action, we can say that it took Eddard ~a fortnight to race from the Trident with his army to KL, to arrive in time to see the end of the Sack (which is when Rossart's fortnight ended). This fits with other examples we have been given in text: In AGOT, Eddard, a large part of his household, and the royal court, take two weeks to travel from castle Darry (half a day away from the site of battle) to KL, without any delays and with relative speed (whereas earlier on in the journey, the group had halted their journey for several days in total to hunt, for example); Aemond Targaryen marched an army from KL to Harrenhal (slightly further than the Trident) in nineteen days. So Eddard taking about ~a fortnight is supported by other textual examples.

 

Most believe that Dany was conceived when Chelsted was burned. In that case, between Dany's conception and the Sack, it appears ~a month passed, as it would likely have taken Rhaegar's army about as long to travel towards the Trident from KL as it took Eddard to travel in the other direction. 

A month between Chelsted and the Sack? This is because of Darry's presence on the door, I presume. That would make Dany about three weeks overdue (by the nine moon shorthand), which could account for complications.... But it would also require a two week gap between Chelsted's burning and Rossart's appointment, and I'm not yet convinced of that interpretation (I was interpreting that Chelsted died around the same time as Rhaegar). I suppose you see that for me the timeline is secondary to characterization and plot, so I'd much sooner (or rather?) accept a timeline flub by the author (Darry's presence on the door) than a massive misstep in one of the former. Personal biases, what can we do with them?

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Which brings us to...

.. This. Sure, Dany is likely not giving us a specific amount of "days". But..

She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight,

Nine months after the flight from KL, which in turn would have taken place somewhere between two to four weeks after Chelsted's death.

Given that Aerys had named Viserys his heir, instead of Rhaegar's son, and the desire to get his heir and wife to safety, the decision for Aerys to send Viserys and Rhaella away likely took place closer to two weeks after Chelsted's death (i.e. within a few days after Rhaegar's death), than a day or two before the Sack took place.

I definitely agree that Aerys wanted his (preferred) heir spirited away after Rhaegar's death, and also might have wanted to avenge himself against the Dornish he believed had betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident (via Prince Llewyn Martell), even if it meant killing Rhaegar's children and his own grandchildren. I thought the flight was about a week before the Sack, though. Have I misremembered something?

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So when Rhaella left KL, (assuming that Dany was indeed conceived the night Chelsted burned) she likely would have been pregnant for slightly more than two weeks.

Now, whether Rhaella gave birth 8,5 months later (indicating a nine-month pregnancy), or nine full months later (being 2 weeks overdue), rounding 8,5 months up to 9 is quite normal. It wouldn't be the only time in ASOIAF that it happens :)

 

Indeed, with Arya providing us with that "thirty days per moon" information:

And so she did, three days of every thirty. When the moon was black she was no one, a servant of the Many-Faced God in a robe of black and white.

 

Indeed. 

Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south.

There was never a maid that he deflowered who did not deliver a strong son or fair daughter nine moons later, or so the stories say.

In nine months time, these maids all give birth to golden-haired children whilst still insisting they had never had carnal knowledge of a man.

*After Rhaella's flight to Dragonstone, not after the Sack of KL. There's a difference.

Yeah, I used shorthand there because I provided the full quote later. Still, a bad idea in a topic like this one. Lol. Sorry!

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**Jaime is listing the order of events, but does not give a timeframe. Aerys had Chelsted burned, and the next to be appointed to the office was Rossart. And while Jaime does not specify a timeframe, Yandel does. The appointment took place after the Trident. As to why Aerys would have waited ~two weeks to appoint a new Hand, we can only speculate about. Was this an understanding between Aerys and Rhaegar ("I win this battle for our house, and you name me Hand")? We have yet to learn.

 

But Chelsted confronting Aerys while Rhaegar was still in KL makes sense. Aerys was still in charge, despite the fact that Rhaegar was in charge of the army. Leading the royal army does not mean he was "acting as the king"... Aerys still had a higher authority than Rhaegar, and both were aware. Rhaegar leaving Jaime at KL ("My royal sire fears your father more than he does our cousin Robert. He wants you close, so Lord Tywin cannot harm him. I dare not take that crutch away from him at such an hour.") is a small price to pay for a continueing peace between father and son. So Rhaegar refusing to take Jaime along says nothing about their balance of power.

Additionally, why would Chelsted go to Rhaegar with the information, when Rhaegar is soon to leave the city? Rhaegar has  to leave; He leads the army, and the rebels are approaching. The trust Aerys suddenly has in Rhaegar (giving him the charge of the army) despite his earlier mistrust, might suggest that father and son had formed somewhat of an (uneasy) alliance (although Rhaegar makes it clear that he does intend to "change" things, which might point back to the position of Hand still being open when he leaves, following Chelsted's death).

I'm not certain I agree that confronting Aerys without any backup or support from the crown prince, who appears to have been the only person lately to convince Aerys to do anything he adamantly doesn't want to do (summon Tywin, name him Hand), and who most people have been turning to in expectation that he take control of his violently crazy father, makes very much sense. Certainly not from a survival perspective, least ways. If I were Hand, I'd totally lay that burden at the crown prince's feet, especially knowing how Aerys likes to burn people alive (Rickard Stark) and comes up with other nasty, torturous ways to kill folks who disagree with or disobey or challenge him in any way, and happily support the crown prince in reining in his father's crazy. 

As to my statement that Rhaegar was "acting as a king..." it wasn't meant in any official capacity (just that he was doing certain things that kings are supposed to do, and that people were turning to him to seize control of the government, trying to push him into that position, etc.). He wasn't the regent or the acting king or anything, just a subtle/sly usurper. Jon Snow does the same thing on the Wall, taking on decisions that should rightly be reserved for the King or his Hand, but that doesn't mean he's doing it in an official capacity either. There was definitely a clear (official) hierarchy between Aerys and Rhaegar, with Rhaegar subordinate, but the text hints that things were much murkier in the power and influence sphere behind the scenes. Like with the Lannisters--Cersei was supposed to be Joffrey's Regent, but the Hands (Tyrion and then Tywin) were unofficially fulfilling that role in addition to the office of the Hand. That's all I meant. Rhaegar exercised more power at times than he probably should have, but he's still trying to keep the peace in the meanwhile (like with leaving Jaime behind). I didn't suggest that Rhaegar leaving Jaime was an indication of their balance of power, however, only that Rhaegar was exercising more authority (even in that decision) than he should, as well as noting the strangeness of Jaime calling Rhaegar "Your Grace" like he was king (which isn't supposed to happen, ever, as far as I can see). 

Rhaegar might have to leave the city, but he doesn't have to leave Aerys in power to slaughter everyone in it (including his own family) when he does. What I'm arguing here is that turning to Rhaegar when the king is to the point of blowing his own city (his subjects, his family, and himself) to bits is a rational thing to do, for various reasons, to disempower the king in this moment of insanity (doesn't say anything about respecting his authority in his moments of lucidity, though, if he still had any). If Rhaegar knew about Chelsted and the wildfire plot... why not act? What rational reason could he have for putting that off? It's reckless in the absurd. 

Even if Aerys wasn't forcibly shipped to Dragonstone (and no overt moves were taken), why not seize control of the wildfire caches, quietly kill Rossart, Garigus, and Belis who were aiding and abetting that madness, and have some strong words with the Small Council to seek their help in keeping Aerys under wraps? Rhaegar in the city during Chelsted's burning really breaks my suspension of disbelief. It just feels so hard to swallow, I feel like I'm gagging on it. It doesn't fit with his characterization--it doesn't make sense for Chelsted, who knew about Rickard Stark and what happened to him--honestly, I have a hard time making sense of Jaime's actions, too (even a fifteen year old should have enough of a survival mechanism to want the wildfire cache removed from beneath the Red Keep where he works and sleeps, and telling Rhaegar what was going on should have been a quick and easy way to get that done). He was already having nightmares about Rickard cooking in his armor; he should have been terrified that the Red Keep would blow and he'd cook in his armor too.

Rhaegar has a lot to bargain with, remember? Like you said, he was in charge of the army and the rebels were descending on the Trident (and could have come right up to the city gates, with no one to stop them). If Rhaegar quietly took his wife and kids and simply split for the safety of Dragonstone (or Dorne, or even Essos), Aerys would be hard-pressed to find a suitable replacement to lead the army. If Rhaegar is willing to give Aerys a hostage in Jaime to keep the peace long enough to save their dynasty, and if Rhaegar was able to convince Aerys to reach out to Tywin, of all people, I don't see why he would be too cowardly to confront his father when everyone he loved and felt responsibility for was at stake. 

The other option is that he simply didn't know, but that's a lot of obliviousness to swallow coming from Rhaegar, too. If Chelsted was dipped in wildfire and burned alive, the crown prince should want to know why. 

Which is why I keep concluding that he couldn't have been present during this event, even though the wildfire plot started in great secrecy whilst he was in residence. 

 

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Viserys was crowned by his mother on Dragonstone, and I suspect that the crown used to do so was a temporary one, the only one available: Rhaella's. Which means that when he sold his mother's crown, he also in a way sold his own.

 

That's a neat connection that I didn't make. Although I'm sure Dragonstone had a forge and within a year they should have been able to produce him a crown (like Robb's crown was slapped together quickly by the blacksmiths of Riverrun), I do like your suggestion a lot. 

 

 

Ah, I've rambled too much. As you can see my thoughts keep heading in circles on this issue, so I will keep pondering all your responses and advice. Thank you so much for your answer! :cheers:

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My first visit here for a long time. I have been unlucky in determining when the Vale tourney in TWoW happens relatively to other events. Looking at the timeline I thought a few comments would be useful. They don't concern the Vale tourney but the late part of ADwD, especially in the north. It seems to me that the synchronisation between events in the north and in the south is wrong by a wide margin in this timeline.

First, Jaime in his only ADwD chapter mentions that a daughter of Eddard Stark has just been married. So this chapter happens after the Winterfell wedding. The same chapter can be related chronologically to Cersei I, where Kevan informs the queen that Jaime has disappeared in the Riverlands. Hence, the order is 1) The Prince of Winterfell, 2) Jaime 3) Cersei 1. The timeline lists 1) after 3). What happened is that a raven informed the south (by letters to King's Landing and probably the Twins as well) that the wedding had taken place, the news reached Riverrun, for instance through the Freys, then Jaime disappeared, then a raven was sent to King's Landing, and then Kevan informed Cersei in her cell. One can expect several weeks of delay between 1) and 3).

Second, the white ravens of winter should be useful to calibrate everything in Westeros. They are all freed at the same time in Oldtown and arrive at their destination with a delay proportional to the distance covered (at what speed though?). By the final Jon chapter in ADwD, no white raven has reached the Wall. Indeed, Melisandre says on the day of Jon's assassination "Winter is almost upon us", proof that Winter is not there yet. Of course, the Wall is considerably farther from Oldtown than King's Landing is. In any case, Kevan's assassination can not have taken place almost two months before Jon's assassination. Another piece of evidence is the fact that Kevan expects a letter from the Boltons in the epilogue. Either the Boltons never sent such a letter after the battle (possible, but significant) or not enough time has elapsed for the delivery of the news to King's Landing, which would show that Kevan's assassination does not take place long after Jon's assassination.

Third, the coming and going of Val and Tycho Nestoris at the Wall are difficult to reconcile. Val leaves at half-moon (waning or waxing?) and promises to return at full moon, presumably, but not certainly, the full moon that follows the half-moon. In that case, the delay before her return is at most three quarter of a moon turn, that is twenty one days or so. Compare now to Tycho's journey. The banker arrived at the Wall after Val's departure, left for Deepwood Motte, then went to Winterfell, and finally reach Stannis in the Wolfswood at about the time of Val's return. The whole journey took about twelve days, which seems incredible especially in a snowstorm. So we have to assume that Val did not return on the following full moon, but on the next full moon. There is no proof that she returned on any full moon though, but it would be treacherous from GRRM if she didn't, so I suggest to assume she returned on the next full moon as the best fallback hypothesis. On that basis things seem to fall into place. In any case, the timeline forgets completely the chapter of Val departure (Jon 8), and no answer to this problem is offered.

Fourth, it seems to me that the chapter in the north (not counting the epilogue) are in chronological order (except the Theon chapter in TWoW, which obviously happens before Jon 13, and the King's prize which covers a long time) and this is coherent with the next full moon hypothesis. The return of Val to the Wall coincides with the raven in King's Landing (take or leave half a day, it's the full moon). The raven of Winter would be on his way to the Wall when Jon is assassinated. If we accept that the chapters are in order, the escape of Theon and Jeyne from Winterfell happens at that same time as Val's return too.

To sum up, Val's return, Theon's escape and Varys' reappearance happen under the same full moon, about a week before Jon's assassination.

I could add a little speculation, when Melisandre declares "Winter is almost upon us", it could mean that she saw in the flames the white raven coming, just like she foresaw the arrival of Selyse a few chapters earlier. (That last episode might give us an idea of the speed of flying ravens: the bird who announced the arrival of Selys at Castle Black arrived almost a day after Melisandre made the prediction. What to conclude from that? Perhaps that a raven needs less than a day to travel from Eastwatch to Castle Black.)

Edited by Bran Vras
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On 18-2-2018 at 7:05 PM, Bran Vras said:

My first visit here for a long time. I have been unlucky in determining when the Vale tourney in TWoW happens relatively to other events. Looking at the timeline I thought a few comments would be useful. They don't concern the Vale tourney but the late part of ADwD, especially in the north. It seems to me that the synchronisation between events in the north and in the south is wrong by a wide margin in this timeline.

First, Jaime in his only ADwD chapter mentions that a daughter of Eddard Stark has just been married. So this chapter happens after the Winterfell wedding. The same chapter can be related chronologically to Cersei I, where Kevan informs the queen that Jaime has disappeared in the Riverlands. Hence, the order is 1) The Prince of Winterfell, 2) Jaime 3) Cersei 1. The timeline lists 1) after 3). What happened is that a raven informed the south (by letters to King's Landing and probably the Twins as well) that the wedding had taken place, the news reached Riverrun, for instance through the Freys, then Jaime disappeared, then a raven was sent to King's Landing, and then Kevan informed Cersei in her cell. One can expect several weeks of delay between 1) and 3).

Second, the white ravens of winter should be useful to calibrate everything in Westeros. They are all freed at the same time in Oldtown and arrive at their destination with a delay proportional to the distance covered (at what speed though?). By the final Jon chapter in ADwD, no white raven has reached the Wall. Indeed, Melisandre says on the day of Jon's assassination "Winter is almost upon us", proof that Winter is not there yet. Of course, the Wall is considerably farther from Oldtown than King's Landing is. In any case, Kevan's assassination can not have taken place almost two months before Jon's assassination. Another piece of evidence is the fact that Kevan expects a letter from the Boltons in the epilogue. Either the Boltons never sent such a letter after the battle (possible, but significant) or not enough time has elapsed for the delivery of the news to King's Landing, which would show that Kevan's assassination does not take place long after Jon's assassination.

Third, the coming and going of Val and Tycho Nestoris at the Wall are difficult to reconcile. Val leaves at half-moon (waning or waxing?) and promises to return at full moon, presumably, but not certainly, the full moon that follows the half-moon. In that case, the delay before her return is at most three quarter of a moon turn, that is twenty one days or so. Compare now to Tycho's journey. The banker arrived at the Wall after Val's departure, left for Deepwood Motte, then went to Winterfell, and finally reach Stannis in the Wolfswood at about the time of Val's return. The whole journey took about twelve days, which seems incredible especially in a snowstorm. So we have to assume that Val did not return on the following full moon, but on the next full moon. There is no proof that she returned on any full moon though, but it would be treacherous from GRRM if she didn't, so I suggest to assume she returned on the next full moon as the best fallback hypothesis. On that basis things seem to fall into place. In any case, the timeline forgets completely the chapter of Val departure (Jon 8), and no answer to this problem is offered.

Fourth, it seems to me that the chapter in the north (not counting the epilogue) are in chronological order (except the Theon chapter in TWoW, which obviously happens before Jon 13, and the King's prize which covers a long time) and this is coherent with the next full moon hypothesis. The return of Val to the Wall coincides with the raven in King's Landing (take or leave half a day, it's the full moon). The raven of Winter would be on his way to the Wall when Jon is assassinated. If we accept that the chapters are in order, the escape of Theon and Jeyne from Winterfell happens at that same time as Val's return too.

To sum up, Val's return, Theon's escape and Varys' reappearance happen under the same full moon, about a week before Jon's assassination.

I could add a little speculation, when Melisandre declares "Winter is almost upon us", it could mean that she saw in the flames the white raven coming, just like she foresaw the arrival of Selyse a few chapters earlier. (That last episode might give us an idea of the speed of flying ravens: the bird who announced the arrival of Selys at Castle Black arrived almost a day after Melisandre made the prediction. What to conclude from that? Perhaps that a raven needs less than a day to travel from Eastwatch to Castle Black.)

Hi. Thank you for the good observations! :) 

Regarding Val's departure (Jon 8), that seems to be an editing error on my part. I did include the chapter in my post explaining what was changed in the last big update, but apparently it got lost in copy-pasting it into the document.

Good observation regarding Jaime's statement on "Arya"'s wedding. I'll try to incorporate it in the document the best I can. I'm not sure when I can take a look at it, so it might be a little while. Same for the white raven. Although I do not expect the white ravens to be mentioned in all storylines (as we've seen from the Arianne sample chapters in Winds), Melisandre's line from Jon's last chapter confirms that the raven at least has not arrived at the Wall yet.

 Will post here when I figured out how to fit it all together!

Edited by Rhaenys_Targaryen

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Posted (edited)

The timeline put AGOT Cat 9(Robb's army reached the Twins) at 299/1/2 and ASOS Cat 6(a day before Red Wedding) at 299/12/14.

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They heard the Green Fork before they saw it, an endless susurrus, like the growl of some great beast. The river was a boiling torrent, half again as wide as it had been last year, when Robb had divided his army here and vowed to take a Frey to bride as the price of his crossing.  --ASOS Cat 6

Maybe you could put AGOT Cat 9 two days earlier to make it into 298 AC?

Edited by zionius

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Posted (edited)

I think it's a mistake that ADWD Davos 3 is before AFFC Cersei 4 (3/12 vs 3/16)?

At the end of Davos 2 (2/25), Manderly takes him into custody and sends the letter to Cersei. She is told about it in Cersei 4 and orders Davos to be beheaded, for which reason Manderly holds the fake court in Davos 3 - and at the end of this chapter orders Davos to be immediately beheaded (then the "beheading" happens offscreen, presumably a day or so after Davos 3).

It wouldn't make sense for them to take place in the opposite order (like it's currently in the timeline) as it would imply that Manderly ordered Davos beheaded in front of the court before Cersei ordered him to, while his whole point was to make a display as if he followed her order. Which is why he had been holding Davos in captivity before staging the court, i.e. those 18 days between Davos 2 and Davos 3 were needed to circulate the message about capturing Davos through Cersei. So I think the dates of those two should be more or less swapped one with another in the timeline. (Boiled Leather order also follows the same assumption, putting Cersei 4 directly before Davos 3.)

Edited by kirt

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