All Men Must Die But Randyll's Death Is Very Close

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

I have an honest question, are there these close 1:1 parellel mirroring of ancient battles and battles in our books currently available? I cannot think of one. Yes Robb and Daeron share some common traits, but far from mirroring. There are some examples of similar scenarios, but I cannot think of a single example of exact mirroring like this and many posts on this site suggest will happen/are happening. 

That is a very good question... How about Urron Redhand's kingsmoot as foreshadowing Euron's kingsmoot? It's not quite on point but it's the only thing I can think of. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

4 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

There are some examples of similar scenarios, but I cannot think of a single example of exact mirroring like this and many posts on this site suggest will happen/are happening. 

That is actually an excellent point. I can't think of many either. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

On 01/03/2017 at 9:56 PM, Makk said:

I think there is a question mark over Randyll Tarleys loyalty to the Tyrells. There is nothing concrete but it has been repeatedly made clear throughout the books that Mace Tyrell has enjoyed basking in glory that Randyll should probably have been given credit for.

And then after the battle of the blackwater, Garlen Tyrell was given the lordship of Brightwater Keep which was the seat of House Florent. You can understand stripping the holdings of disloyal Florents away from them, however that was a huge prize and there was at least one Florent who stayed loyal to the crown and should by rights stand to inherit. Melisa Florent, Randyll Tarlys wife.

I’m in two minds about this. On the one hand, despite those points you make, we haven’t seen any indications of disloyalty from Lord Tarly towards Mace, although granted we haven’t seem much of him. His general attitude seems that of a crusty old conservative, and on that basis he wouldn’t rebel against his liege lord simply out of resentment or a feeling of being passed over.

On the other hand, such loyalty may extend towards the Targaryens. We have heard the story of Tarly lopping off Lord Cafferen’s head and sending it to Aerys. That might just be him showing off how hardcore he is to his king, or it could be a display of ultra-loyalty.

On 01/03/2017 at 9:56 PM, Makk said:

He gave some pretty bad advice to Kevan in the final chapter, is he just narrow minded or could he have already been in touch with Connington.

Either is possible, but we know for a fact he is narrow minded. He also doesn't show many indications of being much of a subtle player (which is not to say that he isn't).

[Lost Melnibonean]

2 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I’m in two minds about this. On the one hand, despite those points you make, we haven’t seen any indications of disloyalty from Lord Tarly towards Mace, although granted we haven’t seem much of him. His general attitude seems that of a crusty old conservative, and on that basis he wouldn’t rebel against his liege lord simply out of resentment or a feeling of being passed over.

On the other hand, such loyalty may extend towards the Targaryens. We have heard the story of Tarly lopping off Lord Cafferen’s head and sending it to Aerys. That might just be him showing off how hardcore he is to his king, or it could be a display of ultra-loyalty.

Either is possible, but we know for a fact he is narrow minded. He also doesn't show many indications of being much of a subtle player (which is not to say that he isn't).

As the House is constituted now, I see little reason to assume that Lord Randyll of House Tarly would turn against Mace Tyrell and join Aegon, whom Randyll believes to be a feigned boy. Randyll has been Mace’s war chief for years, and along with Mathis Rowan and Paxter Redwyne, Randyll Tarly appears to be one of Mace’s closest allies.

However, this is one scenario that would not surprise me... Kevan suggested to Cersei how Randyll or Mathis could be turned, at least subtly, by naming one of them Hand and thereby making him her own. Aegon could scarcely do better in war than Randyll since Kevan described Randyll as the finest soldier in the realm, and once Aegon finds out that his current Hand has greyscale, he’s likely to kick Jon Connington to the curb. And, as you noted, beneath the surface Randyll might resent Mace for taking credit for his prowess in battle, which I believe has been hinted at in the text. And Randyll has suggested that women should content themselves with dancing and giving birth and not make war or play at soldier. Randyll has also showed great disdain for soft, plump, little boys like Tommen, so he might prefer Aegon to Tommen, Myrcella, Cersei, or Daenerys. 

Dickon's potential claim on Brightwater should also be considered. Alester Florent and his son Alekyne were dispossessed of Brightwater after the Battle of the Blackwater. Alester Florent's eldest daughter, however, is Dickon's mum, but Lannister and Tyrell gave Brightwater to Garlan. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

16 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As the House is constituted now, I see little reason to assume that Lord Randyll of House Tarly would turn against Mace Tyrell and join Aegon, whom Randyll believes to be a feigned boy.

As I said, I'm in two minds. However, for the sake of argument, believing Aegon to be a feigned boy is a perfectly reasonable assumption, particularly for a suspicious no-nonsense type like Tarly. His opinion may change if some kind of “proof” is offered to him.

16 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

as you noted, beneath the surface Randyll might resent Mace for taking credit for his prowess in battle, which I believe has been hinted at in the text

Small point, but it was @Makk who raised that. Others have suggested it before. Personally, while possible, I don't really see Randyll being particularly bothered by that. It seems like a bit of a petty concern. The sort of thing Walder Frey would bitch about ten years later, not Randyll. Still, it's possible.

The question of Brightwater Keep has me thinking along similar lines. Sure, he had a claim, but whether that's enough to turn him against Mance, I don't know.

If Tarly does side with Aegon, or Dany for that matter, I think it's more likely down to latent Targaryen loyalty than anything else. Though he could have a combination of motives.

16 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

However, this is one scenario that would not surprise me... Kevan suggested to Cersei how Randyll or Mathis could be turned, at least subtly, by naming one of them Hand and thereby making him her own. Aegon could scarcely do better in war than Randyll since Kevan described Randyll as the finest soldier in the realm, and once Aegon finds out that his current Hand has greyscale, he’s likely to kick Jon Connington to the curb. And, as you noted, beneath the surface Randyll might resent Mace for taking credit for his prowess in battle, which I believe has been hinted at in the text. And Randyll has suggested that women should content themselves with dancing and giving birth and not make war or play at soldier. Randyll has also showed great disdain for soft, plump, little boys like Tommen, so he might prefer Aegon to Tommen, Myrcella, Cersei, or Daenerys. 

That's a good point. You could certainly see him being unhappy taking orders from Cersei. When they joined the Lannisters, Tywin was in charge. He was away from KL when Cersei was in power. If something happens to Mance, and he's expected to take orders from Cersei, that could be interesting. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 4/13/2018 at 4:30 AM, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

As I said, I'm in two minds. However, for the sake of argument, believing Aegon to be a feigned boy is a perfectly reasonable assumption, particularly for a suspicious no-nonsense type like Tarly. His opinion may change if some kind of “proof” is offered to him.

Small point, but it was @Makk who raised that. Others have suggested it before. Personally, while possible, I don't really see Randyll being particularly bothered by that. It seems like a bit of a petty concern. The sort of thing Walder Frey would bitch about ten years later, not Randyll. Still, it's possible.

The question of Brightwater Keep has me thinking along similar lines. Sure, he had a claim, but whether that's enough to turn him against Mance, I don't know.

If Tarly does side with Aegon, or Dany for that matter, I think it's more likely down to latent Targaryen loyalty than anything else. Though he could have a combination of motives.

That's a good point. You could certainly see him being unhappy taking orders from Cersei. When they joined the Lannisters, Tywin was in charge. He was away from KL when Cersei was in power. If something happens to Mance, and he's expected to take orders from Cersei, that could be interesting. 

I still think Randyll and Dickon are going down leaving Samwell to free to strike an accord for Aemon Tarly's benefit. 

[Euron Lannister]

On 13.4.2018 at 1:36 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I still think Randyll and Dickon are going down leaving Samwell to free to strike an accord for Aegon Tarly's benefit. 

i think Randyll and Dickon going down is very likely, although i would love to see Randyll overliving Dickon, and his whole plan to exclude sam would backfire as he has no male heir left.

samwell supporting aegon is unlikely imo. i think if both would die his sister should take over.

also i always thought of mace supporting aegon, after tommen died, which is very likely imo.

btw because it was mentioned in this thread by someone

Spoiler

i dont think that cersei is back in charge, but the lannister bannerman (as the ones in braavos) still follow her orders and she is still a queen by title.

 

[kissdbyfire]

Aemon "Tarly"?

[Lost Melnibonean]

20 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Aemon "Tarly"?

Oops...