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Lost Melnibonean

All Men Must Die But Randyll's Death Is Very Close

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The Last Storm foreshadows Jon Connington defeating Mace Tyrell between Storm’s End and Bronzegate, and that Randyll Tarly and his heir, Dickon, will be killed. At the end of Arianne II, Winds, 

Spoiler

Haldon Halfmaester informs Arianne that Aegon has taken Storm’s End, and that Jon Connington wishes her to meet him there. Haldon proposes that she travel by ship across Shipbreaker Bay, to which Daemon Sand protests, noting that the safer journey is overland. Haldon responds that recent rains (not snows) have turned the roads to mud, so that the overland route would take two to three days, while it would take less than half a day to cross the bay. Haldon adds that there is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing, and that Aegon intends to meet them in the field. Since Daemon Sand understands that to mean that Jon Connington and Mace Tyrell will meet in battle, I suppose we should too. 

Across the Blackwater from King's Landing, the Kingsroad runs southeast through the Kingswood, across the Wendwater and emerges from the great forest at Bronzegate, which stands in the proximity of several small towns, northeast of where the Dornish Marches end. To the northeast stands Haystack Hall, and to the southwest stands Fellwood. To the east and south of bronzegate, we see relatively easy coastal terrain with some hills, as the Kingsroad turns more to the south to Storm's End on the northern shore of Breakwater Bay. The distance between Bronzegate and Storm’s End appears to be close to 120 miles or so, so about five to six days of marching. 

Spoiler

Upon Arianne’s arrival at Grffin’s Roost, Haldon wants Arianne inside Storm’s End before the coming battle, suggesting that Mace has already reached Bronzegate, and is likely approaching Storm's End. Otherwise, there would be no need to reject the safer road overland from Griffin’s Roost to Storm’s End. That puts Mace’s army right about where Orys Baratheon's army was during his subjugation of the Stormlands for Aegon the Conqueror. 

From The Conquest...

Quote

Within days of his coronation, Aegon’s armies were on the march again. The greater part of his host crossed the Blackwater Rush, making south for Storm’s End under the command of Orys Baratheon. 

In our coming battle, we know from Arianne II, Winds

Spoiler

that the field will be reversed, with Aegon's Hand marching north from Storm's End and the opposition force marching south from Bronzegate. 

We could read about the coming battle as it happens from Jon Connington's POV, or perhaps we will read an account of it reported to Cersei in King’s Landing or to Arianne at Storm’s End. I expect we will learn that Golden Company outriders will have harrassed Mace’s van which will surely be led by Randyll Tarly. From The Conquest...

Quote

Lords Errol, Fell, and Buckler, bannermen to Storm’s End, surprised the advance elements of Orys Baratheon’s host as they were crossing the Wendwater, cutting down more than a thousand men before fading back into the trees.

We don't know whether Lord Errol is back at Haystack Hall, or with Stannis, or it's possible he fell on the Blackwater. Lord Fell fell in the Wolfswood. Lord Buckler is at Bronzegate. Perhaps we will learn that Lord Buckler and levies from Haystack Hall and Fellwood will join with Jon Connington and Aegon. 

From The Conquest...

Quote

Aegon’s foes also found themselves plagued by other enemies. As Argilac the Arrogant gathered his swords at Storm’s End, pirates from the Stepstones descended on the shores of Cape Wrath to take advantage of their absence, and Dornish raiding parties came boiling out of the Red Mountains to sweep across the marches. 

So, perhaps the Lord of the Waters will join the fight for Aegon as well, or maybe the Lord of the Waters and Dorne will join Aegon in the aftermath of the battle. 

During the Conquest, "Dickon Morrigen and the Bastard of Blackhaven, commanding the vanguard, were" both killed, suggesting that Randyll, the leader of Mace’s van, and his son Dickon will die in our coming battle. Other than Argilac, Dickon and the leader of the van were the only named casualties. 

Aegon's Hand in the Conquest slew the enemy commander in single combat after offering him the chance to yield, suggesting that Jon Connington might offer Mace the same chance. Unlike Argilac, I suspect Mace might take Jon Connington's offer. 

ETA

Jon Connington will take Heartsbane for Aegon. Although Samwell has taken the black there might be an opportunity for him to have the Mance's son, held out as his own, legitimized and made lord of Horn Hill with the return of Heartsbane in exchange for House Tarly's support of Aegon. 

Edited by Lost Melnibonean

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7 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

I always thought the Tyrells were the "Friends in the reach" 

I doubt it. I think there is a suggestion that House Tarley would side with Aegon over Daenerys, though. 

In any event, if this foreshadowing is correct, then Aegon wold take whatever Tarly forces survive the battle. 

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23 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

I always thought the Tyrells were the "Friends in the reach" 

I've always thought if it's anybody, it'll be Rowan - who last we saw was the one "laying siege" to SE.  Dude always seemed disgusted by the Lannister regime, whereas Tarly could give two...

Good stuff LM!  Coulda just posted the account about Dickon Morrigen - I don't remember that part and it's fairly persuasive.  Not sure about the link with "the bastard of Blackhaven."  The closest person to that would be I guess Edric Dayne or maybe Rolland Storm (as the bastard of another marcher house), and Dickon (Tarly) is obviously not a bastard.  Hm.

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Why is everyone so sure that Mace will be leading the army? 

After Kevans death Mace is the most likely candidate to become the next regent. He is also Hand of the king and his daughter is to stand trial. I think it's more likely that Randyll will lead the army on behalf of Mace. 

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14 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

I've always thought if it's anybody, it'll be Rowan - who last we saw was the one "laying siege" to SE.  Dude always seemed disgusted by the Lannister regime, whereas Tarly could give two...

Good stuff LM!  Coulda just posted the account about Dickon Morrigen - I don't remember that part and it's fairly persuasive.  Not sure about the link with "the bastard of Blackhaven."  The closest person to that would be I guess Edric Dayne or maybe Rolland Storm (as the bastard of another marcher house), and Dickon (Tarly) is obviously not a bastard.  Hm.

It's not that the Bastard of Blackhaven = the Lord Randyll Tarly of Horn Hill, it's that the Bastard of Blackhaven led the van, and Randyll has been leading Mace Tyrell's van for years. 

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3 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

It's not that the Bastard of Blackhaven = the Lord Randyll Tarly of Horn Hill, it's that the Bastard of Blackhaven led the van, and Randyll has been leading Mace Tyrell's van for years. 

Tarly will lead the host. He is old now. Mace is hand of the king. He won't leave the city. One of his son's, Like Garlan will lead the van 

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14 minutes ago, LordImp said:

Why is everyone so sure that Mace will be leading the army? 

After Kevans death Mace is the most likely candidate to become the next regent. He is also Hand of the king and his daughter is to stand trial. I think it's more likely that Randyll will lead the army on behalf of Mace. 

I went back and forth on that. In the end I think Mace will march, because that's what lords and knight do. If he is Hand, it is his duty. If he is Regent, then isn't he also Protector of the Realm? Still, I could see him remaining in King's Landing. 

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18 minutes ago, LordImp said:

Why is everyone so sure that Mace will be leading the army? 

After Kevans death Mace is the most likely candidate to become the next regent. He is also Hand of the king and his daughter is to stand trial. I think it's more likely that Randyll will lead the army on behalf of Mace. 

Spoiler

The mercy chapter seems to indicate that cersei is back in power 

 

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13 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

It's not that the Bastard of Blackhaven = the Lord Randyll Tarly of Horn Hill, it's that the Bastard of Blackhaven led the van, and Randyll has been leading Mace Tyrell's van for years. 

Yeah I'm just saying while the Dickon Morrigen --> Tarly leading the van link is solid, the Bastard of Blackhaven aspect is not.

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3 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Yeah I'm just saying while the Dickon Morrigen --> Tarly leading the van link is solid, the Bastard of Blackhaven aspect is not.

Well, perhaps if it had been Dickon Morrigen and a Randyll Dondarrion, it would have been too obvious? And even though Randyll Tarly is a trueborn son of his father, he is still a bastard, no? 

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12 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

And even though Randyll Tarly is a trueborn son of his father, he is still a bastard, no? 

LOL, well played.

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39 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I went back and forth on that. In the end I think Mace will march, because that's what lords and knight do. If he is Hand, it is his duty. If he is Regent, then isn't he also Protector of the Realm? Still, I could see him remaining in King's Landing. 

I def think Mace will stay in kings landing.

He has randall and his sons that will be going to the reach.........Loras is already about to be there

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23 minutes ago, Jadakiss said:

I def think Mace will stay in kings landing.

He has randall and his sons that will be going to the reach.........Loras is already about to be there

Totally. It's like 10,000% fer sher, u no? :)

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Would be interesting to see how Sam reacts if both his father and brother are killed. Hadn't really ever considered this. As for who Connington tries to recruit from the Reach, I don't think it will be Rowan. I think he will take Storms End by attacking Rowans forces and then pretending to have been hired by Stannis to relieve Storms End.

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1 hour ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Tarly will lead the host. He is old now. Mace is hand of the king. He won't leave the city. One of his son's, Like Garlan will lead the van 

Garlan is gathering men to retake the shields in the Reach.

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In my opinion The Last Storm foreshadows Jon Connington and Arianne Martell leading an army and slaying the last "Storm", newly legitimized Edric Baratheon who will be fighting on Dany's side during Dance of the Dragons.

And the castle Storm's End kinda foreshadows the fate of poor Edric. He will be slain while trying to take back the castle he grew up in and failing. The Ususper's line will be extinguished, per Connington's wishes (Gendry will be around, but he will never become Gendry Baratheon, he will hammer out his own legacy).

It will be one of the few victories of Aegon's faction against Dany. It will contrast Aegon and Golden Company's successful landing in Stormlands to a portion of Dany's forces led by Edric landing by Storm's End and losing lots of ships due to Shipbreaker Bay's nature. And those who land will be exterminated by Connington and Arianne.

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