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US Politics: Passing Gas In Public is Abhorrent Behavior


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6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

A scare for Republicans. But with AHCA muddying the waters a bit about who's at fault for the tighter than it should have been race I'm not sure the party will necessarily learn the lesson it should learn from this result. I suspect the typical response will be "[insert name] isn't conservative enough"

That, and 'voter fraud!'

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9 hours ago, Commodore said:

hard to read much into low turnout special house elections, Dems won a bunch of them leading up to Nov 2010

 

7 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Did they? According to Wikipedia the Democrats went into the 2010 House elections with one less seat than what they won in 2008. So if the Dems won a bunch of special elections leading up to Nov 2010, then they lost a bunch+1 in the same timeframe. So that suggest the writing was on the wall for a reversal of fortune compared to 2008. But perhaps not as huge a reversal as one might have thought.

 

 

They did win that New York district (23?) that had been heavily Republican, which a lot of people took as a sign that Democrats were in fine shape. But they was in spring 2009, in November 2009 Democrats got blown out in the Virginia governor's race (McDonnell won by 18 points) and lost the New Jersey governor's race; which should've been a much bigger warning sign than people at the time thought.

The result in Kansas last night is probably close to the upper limit of what was realistic, and is a potentially very good sign. However, we'll need to see that replicated in the other special elections in the next few months. And then in November there will be the Virginia and New Jersey races again to tell us even more. I wouldn't read that much into New Jersey due to how unpopular Christie is, but if the Democrat comfortably wins in Virginia (rather than the narrow, but consistent wins Democrats have gotten ever since that 2009 loss) that'll say something.

Also of course, even all these elections go great; it'll still be another year after that until the midterms; which is a lot of time for the political environment to change yet again.

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From the Atlantic;

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Turkey’s health ministry confirmed Tuesday the chemical agent used in last week’s attack on Syria’s Idlib province was indeed sarin gas. Recep Akdag, the Turkish health minister, said the tests conducted on victims of the attack, which left at least 58 dead and more than 160 others injured, confirmed they had been exposed to a nerve agent. Turkey also conducted autopsies on three victims of the attack, in coordination with the World Health Organization and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. Considered one of the most-toxic chemical weapons in existence, sarin gas is believed to have been used only four times in history—twice during the Syrian Civil War, and both times allegedly by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Assad and his allies in Russia have repeatedly denied using such weapons, despite evidence to the contrary.

https://www.theatlantic.com/liveblogs/2017/04/news-today/522654/16029/

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1 hour ago, Fez said:

The result in Kansas last night is probably close to the upper limit of what was realistic, and is a potentially very good sign. However, we'll need to see that replicated in the other special elections in the next few months.

 

The problem that I see with reading too much into the Kansas result is that Kansas has been so screwed by Brownback's conservativism that they are actually becoming more democratic/moderate.  Brownback just vetoed the medicare expansion and is SUPER unpopular in Kansas, worse than Trump.  Upcoming special elections in GA, SC, MT are all in places where the Republican governors are more popular, and probably will be a better test for if Trump is dragging Republicans down. 

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Also of course, even all these elections go great; it'll still be another year after that until the midterms; which is a lot of time for the political environment to change yet again.

Also this.  Special elections get a lot of attention because they are the only game in town.  But the 2018 midterms are a LOOONG way off.  Even if the five House Special elections could give us a perfect picture of how the mood of the country changed since November (and they can't), that isn't terribly useful in determining what things will look like 18 months from now. 

The good news for Democrats about 2018, is that while the Senate map is terrible and the House is Gerrymandered to hell, the Governors map looks really good.  A ton of Republicans governorships are open, and many of them are term limited.  Those governors are going to have a huge impact on redistricting after the 2020 census.  FL, GA, OH, MI, NM, NV all have term limited Republican governors, as well as winnable states like MD, MA, IL, IA, WI, NH, VT, AZ.

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I see the governor of Alabama, a noted evangelist, resigned on Monday because of a sex scandal. Supporters said it was the devil at work, because the devil knew he bagged a big one....

The guy who shot and killed his wife and the school kid in California was an evangelist too. I guess the devil bagged him as well.

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1 hour ago, Fez said:

The result in Kansas last night is probably close to the upper limit of what was realistic, and is a potentially very good sign. However, we'll need to see that replicated in the other special elections in the next few months. And then in November there will be the Virginia and New Jersey races again to tell us even more. I wouldn't read that much into New Jersey due to how unpopular Christie is, but if the Democrat comfortably wins in Virginia (rather than the narrow, but consistent wins Democrats have gotten ever since that 2009 loss) that'll say something.

It was absolutely a good sign. It was unrealistic to think the Democrat would win, especially when you consider that the candidate was a nobody. That's a +25 Republican district that was only won by +7 in an electoral terrain that's even more favorable for Republicans. Trump is probably too thick to realize that but the professionals will. 

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Just now, Maithanet said:

The problem that I see with reading too much into the Kansas result is that Kansas has been so screwed by Brownback's conservativism that they are actually becoming more democratic/moderate.  Brownback just vetoed the medicare expansion and is SUPER unpopular in Kansas, worse than Trump.  Upcoming special elections in GA, SC, MT are all in places where the Republican governors are more popular, and probably will be a better test for if Trump is dragging Republicans down. 

Brownback is very unpopular, but he already was incredibly unpopular in 2016; and Pompeo still won by 31 points and Trump won the district by 27 points. So I'm not sure how much of an effect he had on the difference between November and last night. I agree that we need to see the how the other special elections go, but more because we need them to know if there's a trend than for anything else.

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Dumb & Dumber just might be the problem here:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/4/11/15223460/trump-staff-shakeup

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he Trump administration knows it hasn’t gotten off to a very impressive start, with Shane Goldmacher reporting that officials are increasingly panicked about a likely impending wave of stories about a first 100 days devoid of major achievements and Maggie Haberman reporting that “some form of overall review” is in the works that could be used to generate a shake-up.

What happens when people think Refer Madness is a real documentary about marijuana.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/04/12/the-new-white-house-drug-czar-has-quite-an-idea-for-where-to-put-nonviolent-drug-users/

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Rep. Tom Marino (R-Pa.) will be President Trump's drug czar, according to a report from CBS News. Marino's congressional voting record is that of a hard-liner on marijuana issues, and he recently said that he'd like to put nonviolent drug offenders in some sort of “hospital-slash-prison.”

China Trade:

http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2017/04/the-end-of-chinas-export-juggernaut.html

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Exports have been a great boost to China’s economic development, with rapid increases in foreign sales helping to transform the economy into a major producer of the world’s manufactured goods. The slowdown in export growth in recent years has been substantial and highlights the difficulties of trying to compete in foreign markets against both high- and low-wage countries. One of the consequences of the end of China’s export boom is that it puts more pressure on domestic demand to sustain the country’s rate of growth. 

Interesting. File away for future reference. Won't get my hopes up to much.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/12/upshot/a-republican-wins-in-kansas-its-still-a-loss-of-sorts-for-the-gop.html

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On Tuesday, Republicans won an unexpectedly close race in Kansas’ Fourth Congressional District. The Republican Ron Estes won by seven points over James Thompson, even though President Trump won the district by 27 points in November. No Democrat holds a House seat as Republican as this one, so it’s startling that the seat was even competitive.

So the Republican Party really digs the Swabian Housewife. So, how did she do?

http://voxeu.org/article/austerity-aftermath-great-recession

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The financial press and many economists have pointed to austerity policies that cut government expenditures and increased tax rates as an explanation for the slow recovery in several European countries (e.g. Blanchard and Leigh 2013, Krugman 2015). Our analysis finds that variation in austerity policies can in fact account for the differences in economic performance, and that these policies are sufficiently contractionary to contribute to increases in debt-to-GDP ratios in high-debt economies (House et al. 2017).

 

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4 minutes ago, Fez said:

Brownback is very unpopular, but he already was incredibly unpopular in 2016; and Pompeo still won by 31 points and Trump won the district by 27 points. So I'm not sure how much of an effect he had on the difference between November and last night. I agree that we need to see the how the other special elections go, but more because we need them to know if there's a trend than for anything else.

Given how much bipartisan support there was for expanding medicare in KS, I expect Brownback's veto was really unpopular.  Good chance he's less popular now than he was in November (there isn't a ton of polling I could easily find since Brownback wasn't up for election in 2016). 

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21 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

The problem that I see with reading too much into the Kansas result is that Kansas has been so screwed by Brownback's conservativism that they are actually becoming more democratic/moderate.  Brownback just vetoed the medicare expansion and is SUPER unpopular in Kansas, worse than Trump.  Upcoming special elections in GA, SC, MT are all in places where the Republican governors are more popular, and probably will be a better test for if Trump is dragging Republicans down. 

A correction: Steve Bullock, the present governor of Montana, is a Democrat, not a Republican:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/opinion/red-state-hope-for-democratic-blues.html?_r=0

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16 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I could be wrong, but the candidate also had support from Sander's which could have pushed 1-2 (or maybe more) points in his favor from those ephemeral 'independents'.

I don't think the direct Sanders connection helped much; Thompson got all of $900 from Sanders' superPAC. He said he was inspired by Sanders, but his actual campaign positions were the standard moderate Democrat template. The one interesting wrinkle was that he ran as being explicitly pro-choice, which is a bold stance to have in Kansas; although it wasn't a main issue in the race.

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10 minutes ago, Ormond said:

A correction: Steve Bullock, the present governor of Montana, is a Democrat, not a Republican:

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/opinion/red-state-hope-for-democratic-blues.html?_r=0

Ah, I stand corrected.  I knew SC and GA for sure, didn't bother to check on MT. 

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Can someone please send the WH a definition of what a 'failed state' is?

'A state whose political or economic system has become so weak that the government is no longer in control'.

Iran is not a failed state. It may be a repressive state but the government is in control and it's a regional power. North Korea is not a failed state, it's a dictatorship. It's economy is lousy, but definitely the country is under control. Syria is a country in the middle of a civil war, so I guess that makes it a failed state until Assad is back in control. 

What is it about the term 'failed state' they don't understand? Is this the equivalent to the Bush regime mispronouncing names to insult Iraq?

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Just now, Fragile Bird said:

Can someone please send the WH a definition of what a 'failed state' is?

Perhaps I will send the following: A state that manages to elect an orange swamp thing as its leader.

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Internet and social media completely responsible for political polarization. Uh, maybe not completely.

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/4/12/15259438/social-media-political-polarization

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Here’s something everyone knows: Social media is driving American politics into a ditch of partisanship. Political junkies log on and cocoon themselves in a bubble of friendly punditry, appealing fake news, and outrageous acts from the other side. Every retweet and every like is another moment of identity confirmation, another high-five to our friends, another reminder that we’re right and they’re wrong.

 

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54 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

Perhaps I will send the following: A state that manages to elect an orange swamp thing as its leader.

You could also go with: A state recovering from having it's democratically elected government toppled by the U.S. and having a brutal dictator installed to make sure the oil is kept cheap. 

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Just wait until the annual Easter Egg Roll massively fails because nobody can be arsed to organize it.  They'll probably cancel it as a reforming government spending move . . . .

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