Altherion Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 8 hours ago, Dr. Pepper said: I haven't checked out any numbers but I suspect the quiverfull movement is only growing larger at the moment considering tv and other forms have media have made those types of families mainstream and popular. Wikipedia has a list of countries by fertility rate. There are a few large families on TV, but they're on TV precisely because they're anomalous: such families are far too rare to make a difference in the overall fertility rate. The rate is 1.87 for the US, 1.60 for the EU, China and Canada, 1.61 for Russia and 1.41 for Japan. It's only Africa and a few Islamic countries that have really high fertility rates and it's mainly India, the remaining Islamic countries and some of the Latin American and smaller Asian ones that are even above replacement rate. Basically, there is no evidence at all of this movement or any other of its type having any meaningful impact on the fertility rates of Western nations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Northman Reborn Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 6 hours ago, Rippounet said: Fixed it for you. Don't do that, please. By all means, reply to my post and state that Freeman Dyson is a pysicist and not a climatologist, or whatever point you wish to make. But please don't quote my post, with my name still appearing as the author, and then modify it to make it look like I said something I did not. It is misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
felice Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 14 hours ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said: In all likelihood in a century or so the growth rate of the planet will be flat or declining. The real problem of the next few decades is how do we get enough people of working age to cover the cost of all the old people: answer equals immigration. From which planet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bennis of the Brown Shield Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 15 hours ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said: In all likelihood in a century or so the growth rate of the planet will be flat or declining. The real problem of the next few decades is how do we get enough people of working age to cover the cost of all the old people: answer equals immigration. I'd suggest that the next few decades will also see a bigger push to reduce abortions and more focus on having children, as western culture struggles to replace itself. That depends a lot on how automation ends up affecting the labor market. Many thinkers are now fearing that we in the next decade or two may have to deal with unemployment levels not even seen during the Great Depression as a result of the digitalization and robotization of many jobs. Technological innovation is also a relevant factor for your second suggestion. There are a lot of resources being funneled into life extension and anti-aging research nowadays. It is not at all impossible that they will discover something highly potent there in the next few decades, in which case even the low birth rates of developed nations today may suddenly look unsustainably high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isalie Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 They better hurry up though, even if I have to live through Mad Max, I don't wanna miss out on immortality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted May 7, 2017 Author Share Posted May 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, Mikael said: They better hurry up though, even if I have to live through Mad Max, I don't wanna miss out on immortality. It will never be "immortality". We might have "amortality" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pepper Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 10 hours ago, Altherion said: Wikipedia has a list of countries by fertility rate. There are a few large families on TV, but they're on TV precisely because they're anomalous: such families are far too rare to make a difference in the overall fertility rate. The rate is 1.87 for the US, 1.60 for the EU, China and Canada, 1.61 for Russia and 1.41 for Japan. It's only Africa and a few Islamic countries that have really high fertility rates and it's mainly India, the remaining Islamic countries and some of the Latin American and smaller Asian ones that are even above replacement rate. Basically, there is no evidence at all of this movement or any other of its type having any meaningful impact on the fertility rates of Western nations. Small communities aren't going to have any sort of immediate impact on the fertility rate, honey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maarsen Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 18 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said: Just on the global warming issue, which is tangental to this discussion, being about the carrying capacity of the world and all, I found this interview with the legendary Freeman Dyson to be quite illuminating on the topic: Basically, the impact of man made global warming is not nearly as significant as it is made out to be, nor is this impact necessarily a bad thing. Arthur Clarke once said that any time a respected senior scientist gives an opinion on any new theory, they are invariably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DunderMifflin Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, maarsen said: Arthur Clarke once said that any time a respected senior scientist gives an opinion on any new theory, they are invariably wrong. So true, except when they agree with me. Then they totally know what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Northman Reborn Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 23 hours ago, maarsen said: Arthur Clarke once said that any time a respected senior scientist gives an opinion on any new theory, they are invariably wrong. As opposed to? A disrespected junior scientist giving an opinion on said theory? When is an opinion then valid when a new theory is under discussion? Or did you mean it as a tongue in cheek comment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishgenius Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said: As opposed to? A disrespected junior scientist giving an opinion on said theory? When is an opinion then valid when a new theory is under discussion? Or did you mean it as a tongue in cheek comment? I think the issue really is that often these legendary scientists are being asked questions about fields that are completely unrelated to the field they're actually legendary in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 On 5/7/2017 at 5:45 AM, Khaleesi did nothing wrong said: That depends a lot on how automation ends up affecting the labor market. Many thinkers are now fearing that we in the next decade or two may have to deal with unemployment levels not even seen during the Great Depression as a result of the digitalization and robotization of many jobs. Technological innovation is also a relevant factor for your second suggestion. There are a lot of resources being funneled into life extension and anti-aging research nowadays. It is not at all impossible that they will discover something highly potent there in the next few decades, in which case even the low birth rates of developed nations today may suddenly look unsustainably high. Unemployment is solved by universal basic income. The long term goal of any society should be total unemployment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted May 8, 2017 Author Share Posted May 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, larrytheimp said: Unemployment is solved by universal basic income. The long term goal of any society should be total unemployment. You're kidding right? So artists and artisans should be replaced by their machine equivilents as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry of the Lawn Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said: You're kidding right? So artists and artisans should be replaced by their machine equivilents as well? Not replaced. People should be to pursue their artistic passions without that being tied to financial survival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted May 8, 2017 Author Share Posted May 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, larrytheimp said: Not replaced. People should be to pursue their artistic passions without that being tied to financial survival. You really think that "basic" will be utopia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishgenius Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: You really think that "basic" will be utopia? You've made a pretty big leap from 'not tied to financial survival' to 'utopia'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted May 8, 2017 Author Share Posted May 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, polishgenius said: You've made a pretty big leap from 'not tied to financial survival' to 'utopia'. This is what LtI said: People should be to pursue their artistic passions without that being tied to financial survival. What if people don't want to be artists? What if they want to have some other purpose for their lives. Are we to be left with "be an artist" or "be a lump"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishgenius Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Does it really need spelling out that people with ambitions other than to be an artist should also be able to pursue them without that being tied to financial survival? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted May 8, 2017 Author Share Posted May 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, polishgenius said: Does it really need spelling out that people with ambitions other than to be an artist should also be able to pursue them without that being tied to financial survival? What is available if every task is taken by automation that isn't an "artistic" endeavour? Sports? Video Games? Professional drinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polishgenius Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said: What is available if every task is taken by automation that isn't an "artistic" endeavour? Why do you believe that we should stay in a state where almost everyone has to work because some people really want to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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