Do you think Jon Connington will start a Gray Scale Epidemy on KL ?

[Rodx]

I reading some historical information on the net, and discover that a siege in the city of Kaffa in real life is one of motives beyond the spread of the Black Death through the Europe,when I start to think to parallels on ASOIAF .

I think that Jon Connington actually will use his Grey Scale as a weapon against Kings Landing starting a Epidemy,someone already think of that ? 

[BalerionTheCat]

I don't think he will will use it as a weapon. But if JC is bringing the Gray Scale to Westeros, IMO it will spread significantly. KL would be a propitious place. Not sure they will need a siege. Depends of how Cersei and the Faith will manage.

[The Bard of Banefort]

One thing about ASOIAF that I find a little strange is how rare widespread disease is. We hear about the Great Spring Sickness in The Sworn Sword, and there's the pale mare in Meereen, but other than that, disease appears to be fairly well-contained in this series. That's especially strange when you consider how much of the main series takes place during a time of war, since historically disease has always been a huge problem on the battlefront. 

I don't think greyscale will be used as a weapon, but rather JonCon's condition will cause an unintentional outbreak in Westeros, adding yet another layer of chaos to the story. 

[Whitering]

On 6/15/2017 at 5:56 PM, The Bard of Banefort said:

One thing about ASOIAF that I find a little strange is how rare widespread disease is. We hear about the Great Spring Sickness in The Sworn Sword, and there's the pale mare in Meereen, but other than that, disease appears to be fairly well-contained in this series. That's especially strange when you consider how much of the main series takes place during a time of war, since historically disease has always been a huge problem on the battlefront. 

I don't think greyscale will be used as a weapon, but rather JonCon's condition will cause an unintentional outbreak in Westeros, adding yet another layer of chaos to the story. 

Well, unlike the show, travel takes a significant amount of time, that often greatly reduces the spread.

[Pecan]

Isn't the Great Stone Beast from the HOTU prophecies supposed to be greyscale, let loose when the Ironborn sack Oldtown? My assumption has been that Leyton Hightower is infected and that's why he's quarantined himself in the Hightower for a decade or so. 

[RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon]

I think we'll see it be unleashed possibly in the prologue of WoW but we'll lose povs in that area as the disease spreads & grows. As the Walker forces spread south the greyscale infected peoplwle will flank the retreating armies. The link between the two is strongly hinted & it's possible the White Walkers or Nights King can control or communicate with them when close enough.

[falcotron]

A minor greyscale outbreak could also be more foreshadowing than the main event.

In the same way that Aegon's dragon invasion sets the stage for Dany invading with real dragons, JonConn's greyscale plague could set the stage for Dany accidentally bringing a real plague.

The people of Westeros may have much less immunity to central Essosi diseases like the pale mare than the people of the Free Cities—they haven't had 400 years of Dothraki riding back and forth across their lands, they aren't quite as ridiculously urbanized and concentrated, a lot fewer of them are involved in sea trade, etc. That's a big part of the reason Europe was so devastated by the black plague, and England and Scandinavia were able to be devastated by it all over again—or, for a more extreme example, the Americas by smallpox.

[Amris]

On 13.8.2017 at 8:27 AM, Pecan said:

Isn't the Great Stone Beast from the HOTU prophecies supposed to be greyscale, let loose when the Ironborn sack Oldtown? My assumption has been that Leyton Hightower is infected and that's why he's quarantined himself in the Hightower for a decade or so. 

No - the great stone beast taking wing is Bran being pushed off the old keep of Winterfell by Jaime.

A 'stone' beast because there are gargoyles there on the old keep right where Bran fell and GRRM explicitly has one of those gargoyles 'take wing' and crash to the ground at exactly the spot Bran was found after his 'flight'. This all is right at the entrance to the crypts of Winterfell with their secret.

[HexMachina]

On 13/08/2017 at 2:25 PM, RobertOfTheHouseBaratheon said:

I think we'll see it be unleashed possibly in the prologue of WoW but we'll lose povs in that area as the disease spreads & grows. As the Walker forces spread south the greyscale infected peoplwle will flank the retreating armies. The link between the two is strongly hinted & it's possible the White Walkers or Nights King can control or communicate with them when close enough.

Jeyne Westerling is supposed to appear in the prologue, so I do not think it will happen there as she will be either in the Riverlands or Westerlands.

I don't think Connington would deliberately unleash the disease as a weapon because it's too unpredictable. Sure he is potentially endangering Aegon now by remaining in close proximity, but creating what could possibly become a horde of Stone People in the city Aegon plans to rule from would not be a smart move. Even aside from the danger it would put Aegon in, it would be terrible for his reputation and future rule. Aegon VI, the King who brought the plague to the city isn't going to endear him to many.

This isn't to say Connington won't infect someone through recklessness though, I could well imagine that happening. I think his greyscale must have more importance than merely making Connington desperate and spurring him to action. 

[Damon_Tor]

On 8/12/2017 at 11:27 PM, Pecan said:

Isn't the Great Stone Beast from the HOTU prophecies supposed to be greyscale, let loose when the Ironborn sack Oldtown?

There are some problems with that interpretation: no "wings" and no "shadow fire". Also, it doesn't fit the "lies" theme of the stanza.

My interpretation: it describes House Hoare surviving the burning of Harrenhal to become House Lothston (Lothston literally means "hateful stone") with their bat sigil. Shadow Fire is Lucas Lothston's role in starting the Blackfyre rebellion. It's important because it means that the Whents (descended from the Lothstons) are the heirs to Harrenhal. Sansa's maternal Grandmother was a Whent, and Littlefinger is Lord of Harrenhal. If Harrenhal, empowered by the "black blood" of Hoare, is the reason magic had been suppressed in and around Westeros (the last dragon died two years after House Lothston took Harrenhal, and Daenery's dragons were born just after the last Whent was evicted from it) then it stands to reason that Sansa as the Lady of Harrenhal (or even Queen of the Rivers, depending on how well woven Littlefinger's schemes really are) would pose a real and immediate threat to Daenerys and her Dragons simply by holding the castle. All of it propped up on the lie that House Hoare is dead.

[blacktea79]

On 19/9/2017 at 1:50 PM, HelenaExMachina said:

Jeyne Westerling is supposed to appear in the prologue, so I do not think it will happen there as she will be either in the Riverlands or Westerlands.

I don't think Connington would deliberately unleash the disease as a weapon because it's too unpredictable. Sure he is potentially endangering Aegon now by remaining in close proximity, but creating what could possibly become a horde of Stone People in the city Aegon plans to rule from would not be a smart move. Even aside from the danger it would put Aegon in, it would be terrible for his reputation and future rule. Aegon VI, the King who brought the plague to the city isn't going to endear him to many.

This isn't to say Connington won't infect someone through recklessness though, I could well imagine that happening. I think his greyscale must have more importance than merely making Connington desperate and spurring him to action. 

I think it likely that he will infect someone, but I am inclined to exclude a major outbreak of GS. I think that the fact that JC recklessly brought the GS to Westeros will play a part in the downfall of Aegon, because he will be seen as co-responsible for the (minor) epidemic. If GRRM stays true to his current idea of just two more books, there is no space to fit in a massive epidemic, IMO. 

 

[HexMachina]

3 hours ago, blacktea79 said:

I think it likely that he will infect someone, but I am inclined to exclude a major outbreak of GS. I think that the fact that JC recklessly brought the GS to Westeros will play a part in the downfall of Aegon, because he will be seen as co-responsible for the (minor) epidemic. If GRRM stays true to his current idea of just two more books, there is no space to fit in a massive epidemic, IMO. 

 

It would be rather tragic if Connington infected only one person through his reckless behaviour, and that person happened to be Aegon. 

[Amris]

On 26.9.2017 at 8:47 AM, Damon_Tor said:

There are some problems with that interpretation: no "wings" and no "shadow fire". Also, it doesn't fit the "lies" theme of the stanza.

[snip]

Gargoyles have wings. One of Bran's main themes is flight. Shadow fire was seen over Winterfell by Summer at the very moment that the gargoyle crashed to the ground at the very spot that Bran had fallen.

The lies theme of the stanza is actually a great fit: Bran as the means to uncover the greatest lie of the story: the truth about  Jon's parents. And the entrance to the crypts of Winterfell with their secret (Lyanna's tomb) being right there at the very spot Bran and the gargoyle fell.

[Damon_Tor]

On 9/27/2017 at 0:09 AM, Amris said:

Gargoyles have wings. One of Bran's main themes is flight. Shadow fire was seen over Winterfell by Summer at the very moment that the gargoyle crashed to the ground at the very spot that Bran had fallen.

The lies theme of the stanza is actually a great fit: Bran as the means to uncover the greatest lie of the story: the truth about  Jon's parents. And the entrance to the crypts of Winterfell with their secret (Lyanna's tomb) being right there at the very spot Bran and the gargoyle fell.

Yeah, I was talking about the greyscale hypothesis. The Bran hypothesis hits most of the points reasonably well.

[Amris]

1 hour ago, Damon_Tor said:

Yeah, I was talking about the greyscale hypothesis. The Bran hypothesis hits most of the points reasonably well.

Oops - err - sorry hehe.

[Tini]

On 19.9.2017 at 1:50 PM, HelenaExMachina said:

This isn't to say Connington won't infect someone through recklessness though, I could well imagine that happening. I think his greyscale must have more importance than merely making Connington desperate and spurring him to action. 

"Merely" ? Actually I think that this is quite enough: it is derailing Connington's plans. It's derailing Varys' plans. It will derail Aegon, in the end.

The Aegon plan has been in the making for more than a decade, and Connington was, and is, central to it. And I think his intended role is far from finished. Despite Connington's best efforts, most of Aegon's knowledge is theoretical in nature. Connington has the practical expertise - and personal connections to Westerosi nobles. He was part of Aerys' court, and, for a short time, King's Hand. He knew (and loved) both Rhaegar and baby Aegon - which means that Westerosi may be inclined to believe him when he presents Aegon as heir to House Targaryen and the Iron Throne.

Without the disease, he would've remained at court as Aegon's advisor, even as King's Hand, bridging the continuity gap created by the Baratheon interregnum. He would've been there while Aegon learned how to govern a country which is much more difficult than actually conquering it (as Daenerys is learning). 

Due to the disease, he will not be able to do so. A greyscale infected advisor would not reflect well on the new king.
Worse, a greyscale infected advisor might infect the king.