Heresy 198 The Knight of the Laughing Tree

[WeKnowNothing]

52 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

I always suspected Rhaegar won unfairly.   He was a natural at learning to be a knight, but only started learning recently.  He'd never compete with the best if the best fairly. 

What would you mean by 'recently?' Rhaegar didn't just start learning to fight last month. Rhaegar was around 21/22 at the tourney, giving him more than a decade of being able to practice jousting or swords. And if you say he's a bad jouster, then how did he manage to beat Selmy, Arthur Dayne and Brandon Stark in the jousts? Sure, Selmy and Dayne could have been ordered to loose purposely, but Brandon Stark? I have a very hard time picturing anyone persuading Brandon Stark to forsake his ego to loose to Rhaegar. 

Rhaegar also badly injured Robert, (who was practically a giant of a man) at the trident before he died. Robert was badly injured enough that he wasn't able to travel onto kings landing for the end of the war, instead sending Ned for the job. So I would say Rhaegar was amongst the best of fighters. 

[JNR]

53 minutes ago, ravenous reader said:

If you look at the number of threads erupting in the forum on the subject in recent days alone, and review the array of dissenting opinions, it clearly reveals that readers don't have confidence in their own viewpoints, regardless of how passionately they defend those viewpoints.

It reveals that there exist readers of this type.  But as a percentage of the online ASOIAF fandom, they are a tiny minority (albeit a vocal one).

Most fans, in fact, don't even think it's a question who Jon's parents are -- they think the show conclusively revealed that, and the books must therefore be the same.

Try going to the GOT wiki (not the ASOIAF wiki) and look up Jon Snow.  His parentage is not considered a matter of debate there at all -- not even a theory -- which by coincidence, is exactly what the admin of this site said, about Book Jon's parents, in a Reddit AMA.  "Not even a theory."

58 minutes ago, ravenous reader said:

How will you know you solved it correctly, if the writer persists with his equivocation, leaving everything ambiguous and nebulous, to the point where, as you've pointed out, you can't even prove 'conclusively' that Rhaegar and Lyanna were or weren't on the same continent?

I won't. 

But in my strong opinion, he's not going to do that.   The subtle ambiguity he has pursued so far is meant to allow logical possibilities to multiply and mislead... so that when he finally drops his revelations, the effect will be far more spectacular.

In the particular case of Jon's parents, GRRM has previously said in public, in a now-scrubbed Barnes and Noble Q&A, that Jon will eventually find out who they are.  That means a clear revelation will appear in the books, and that means we'll know too.

But when will we get these solutions?  My guess for many reasons is that that one comes in the next book... but the bigger and more difficult ones he will leave to ADOS.  Because this series isn't about Jon, or any other single character; it's about the song of ice and fire.

[Matthew.]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

 

I always suspected Rhaegar won unfairly.   He was a natural at learning to be a knight, but only started learning recently.  He'd never compete with the best if the best fairly. 

 

Untrue. Whenever this topic has come up here in the past, certain posters incorrectly gauge Rhaegar's jousting competence because they seem to be misremembering/conflating their analysis with the conversation that Dany and Selmy have about Rhaegar as a warrior ("the Prince of Dragonstone was a most puissant warrior, but...").

At the the tournament celebrating the birth of Viserys, Rhaegar defeated Barristan but lost to Arthur Dayne, and at the tournament at Storm's End, Rhaegar and Dayne rode 13 tilts against one another before Rhaegar finally won, only to lose to Barristan in the final match up. 

The overall implication seems to be that Rhaegar was at least near Selmy and Dayne's league, and could even beat them on a good day. In addition, more than just the KG would have needed to take a dive at Harrenhal, including Bronze Yohn and Brandon Stark.
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As I see it, there are a lot of problems with this "crown of winter roses as political message" theory. For one, Rhaegar delivering cold, calculating ultimatums contradicts the (granted, limited) characterization we have to draw upon, and you would think that Rhaegar asking Selmy to dishonor himself and take a dive at Harrenhal is the sort of thing that would have lowered Selmy's opinion of Rhaegar--yet Selmy still seems to regard him highly.

Furthermore, the whole thing is an awfully convoluted plan whose end point seems to be a predictable political disaster--it suggests that Rhaegar would have to find funding for the tournament and provide it in a way that Aerys wouldn't notice (does Rhaegar have wealth independent of the crown and Aerys?), find a way to organize it with Lord Whent (who, in theory, might more logically be a part of the Stark-Baratheon-Arryn-Tully conspiracy), he needs to have the joust go exactly according to plan, and then he needs the Starks to correctly interpret the meaning behind the winter roses, all without pissing off his Dornish allies in the process.

In short, it's a theory that demands Rhaegar act against his characterization, in service of a plan that makes no sense. 

[Brad Stark]

1 hour ago, WeKnowNothing said:

What would you mean by 'recently?' Rhaegar didn't just start learning to fight last month. Rhaegar was around 21/22 at the tourney, giving him more than a decade of being able to practice jousting or swords. And if you say he's a bad jouster, then how did he manage to beat Selmy, Arthur Dayne and Brandon Stark in the jousts? Sure, Selmy and Dayne could have been ordered to loose purposely, but Brandon Stark? I have a very hard time picturing anyone persuading Brandon Stark to forsake his ego to loose to Rhaegar. 

Rhaegar also badly injured Robert, (who was practically a giant of a man) at the trident before he died. Robert was badly injured enough that he wasn't able to travel onto kings landing for the end of the war, instead sending Ned for the job. So I would say Rhaegar was amongst the best of fighters. 

I agree with Rhaegar's age at the tournament, but not when he started learning.  We know he was an avid reader for years before.  In a society with most people illiterate and reading less important even to nobility, how young can you be an avid reader?  My impression was Rhaegar was around 16 when he said he wanted to be a Knight. 

I didn't say Rhaegar was a marshmallow,  simply he wouldn't be the best of the best.  He may have even won a difficult tilt such as against Brandon before someone decided to cheat.  I can't come up with any plausible theory for the winter roses unless they were intended for Lyanna, and only if Rhaegar was known to win ahead of time.

[Brad Stark]

What if Rhaegar didn't know anything about Bael or care at all about roses, and Tywin fixed the contest knowing Rhaegar would win and give them to Lyanna?  It has been suggested before that Rhaegar meant to insult the Starks himself, and I've suggested Rhaegar chose them to impress Lyanna, but this makes more sense.

Suppose ordinary red roses were chosen instead.  Would it still have been "a moment when all smiles died?"  Rickard already promised Lyanna and Brandon to marry for political reasons against their own wishes.  How would he react ordinarily to Lyanna as the 2nd wife or even just a love interest of the King of Westerous?  He may be very much in favor of it, as long as he was able to bargain something in return.  Instead, a flower was chosen that specifically insulted the Starks and prevented that.

I am also suggesting Rickard, Brandon and Ned knew that Lyanna wanted to be with Rhaegar.  Granted, we only know from fever-dream-memory, but Arthur never attempts to explain the situation at the Tower of Joy.  Ned knew he was there to take Lyanna away against her wishes so she could marry Robert.  That is why Rhaegar left the Kingsguard there to defend her, and why they fought.

[Black Crow]

So far as the tournament being fixed goes; the only clue we have is Baristan Selmy's remark about what would have happened if he was a better knight. Not a better jouster, but a better knight. There are two ways of reading this; either GRRM was being careless as to his terminology and it doesn't mean a thing - or - Selmy had a guilty conscience about not acting as a true and honourable knight.

If it is the first, then we have no other evidence to suggest the outcome was fixed. Rhaegar won by beating Selmy. If Selmy just had an off-day there is no conspiracy. If on the other hand he did throw the last match then only one of two people could have induced him to turn from the path of honour and right and neither of them is Tywin Lanister. It could only be his King or his Prince.

As to the latter, who seems by far the more likely, we know he's engaged in politicking so its most likely a political motive and returning once again to the Ivanhoe model, the whole business of Lyanna as mystery knight doesn't add up.

Conventional wisdom says 'twas she. Somehow in the hours that follow the mystery knight's victory Rhaegar discovers the fact, falls desperately in love and next day beats all comers to deposit the roses and then elopes. Just like that. Really? Really really really?

[Brad Stark]

They don't grow winter roses in Harrenhal and I doubt they were chosen by chance.  If they were intentional, they were intended for Lyanna, otherwise  they'd have no special meaning.   Which means someone knew Rhaegar would win, or at least that Selmy would not.

[Melifeather]

6 hours ago, JNR said:

Well... I think most of the major mysteries can be solved with reasonable confidence in advance by sufficiently persistent and well-informed readers.  GRRM has been subtle, but also fair -- exactly what he wanted to be.

Things like "Did Selmy and Dayne deliberately lose the joust at Harrenhal?" are smaller sub-mysteries that GRRM can't have known his reading audience would realize existed.  I for instance didn't even conceive of the possibility Selmy took a dive until Snowfyre brought it up... so it never had a chance to wear thin.

Ultimately Tywin did well for himself in the big picture, but he couldn't have known that would be the case.  It could so easily have gone another way. 

Suppose, for instance, that Connington had simply burned down Stony Sept, where Robert was hiding.  Now Robert dies; the Rebellion ends; Connington remains Hand, the object of glory in the Targaryen eye.  

Tywin appears to be a traitor, or close to it, for refusing to answer Aerys' ravens or support his monarch in a time of war.  This situation doesn't pan out well for Tywin or the Lannister cause, to say the least.

So I have to look at the nearer time frame re Harrenhal.  I imagine Tywin sending ravens to Dayne and Selmy telling them: Take a dive in the joust at Harrenhal. Let Rhaegar beat you.  Selmy and Dayne are both Targaryen loyalists, sworn to Aerys, who will never take such instruction from Tywin, but will instead go to Aerys or Rhaegar with the messages in hand, looking for instruction.  And Rhaegar might approve, but Aerys' reaction would be... unpredictable... and possibly disastrous.  I think Tywin would have seen that problem coming as easily as I did.

Tywin had a knack of figuring out what people wanted and helped them get it, and in exchange they helped Tywin. Roose and Walder were Robb Stark's allies, and yet they did not go to Robb with Tywin's offers. They eagerly butchered their king and other allies, because they had "beefs" with Robb and unfulfilled promises. Why would it be hard to imagine that Selmy, Dayne AND JonCon had similar slights with Aerys and similar wants? All three were close to and admired Rhaegar and could have been persuaded by desires to oust Aerys and put Rhaegar on the throne.

5 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Rhaegar might be too honorable to cheat but certainly was too arrogant to believe he needs to.   I agree him fixing the tournament makes less sense than Tywin,  who not only had motive for the rebellion but may have wanted to embarrass Eli for marrying Rhaegar instead of Cersi.  Tywin could have known Rhaegar had a thing for Lyanna and chose winter roses to temp him even more to name her qolab.  

Makes sense, except why would Selmy lose on purpose for Tywin?  What could Tywin have offered or threatened to make him do something dishonorable?

A promise to put Rhaegar on the throne and rid the realm of Aerys.

5 hours ago, Greggles said:

I wanted to read the entire thread before posting but time, laziness.

Following on from Black Crows theme of twinning, (er, looping, mirroring past and present) and comparing TKOTLT with Ser Loras' defeat of The Mountain.

Loras in his beautiful armour won through trickery: his mare was in heat (something he probably planned for) causing the Mountains horse to become unmanageable.  Mirroring and inverting this: Howland Reed, his craptacular armour rode against those three knights while Lyanna unbeknownst to him warged his opponents horses causing them to lose.  She's the mare in this case.

Howland gets his vengeance.  Lyanna the teenage she-wolf gets to have some fun. 

Feel free to tear this apart, but I think Occam is on my side.

I like it! It's similar to Pretty Pig's suggestions.

4 hours ago, WeKnowNothing said:

What would you mean by 'recently?' Rhaegar didn't just start learning to fight last month. Rhaegar was around 21/22 at the tourney, giving him more than a decade of being able to practice jousting or swords. And if you say he's a bad jouster, then how did he manage to beat Selmy, Arthur Dayne and Brandon Stark in the jousts? Sure, Selmy and Dayne could have been ordered to loose purposely, but Brandon Stark? I have a very hard time picturing anyone persuading Brandon Stark to forsake his ego to loose to Rhaegar. 

Rhaegar also badly injured Robert, (who was practically a giant of a man) at the trident before he died. Robert was badly injured enough that he wasn't able to travel onto kings landing for the end of the war, instead sending Ned for the job. So I would say Rhaegar was amongst the best of fighters. 

At the beginning of this thread I suggested that time began looping and repeating the past shortly after Howland prayed to the old gods. Rhaegar reprised Howland's role and received the "way to win" from the old gods, giving strength to his arm.

1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

So far as the tournament being fixed goes; the only clue we have is Baristan Selmy's remark about what would have happened if he was a better knight. Not a better jouster, but a better knight. There are two ways of reading this; either GRRM was being careless as to his terminology and it doesn't mean a thing - or - Selmy had a guilty conscience about not acting as a true and honourable knight.

If it is the first, then we have no other evidence to suggest the outcome was fixed. Rhaegar won by beating Selmy. If Selmy just had an off-day there is no conspiracy. If on the other hand he did throw the last match then only one of two people could have induced him to turn from the path of honour and right and neither of them is Tywin Lanister. It could only be his King or his Prince.

As to the latter, who seems by far the more likely, we know he's engaged in politicking so its most likely a political motive and returning once again to the Ivanhoe model, the whole business of Lyanna as mystery knight doesn't add up.

Conventional wisdom says 'twas she. Somehow in the hours that follow the mystery knight's victory Rhaegar discovers the fact, falls desperately in love and next day beats all comers to deposit the roses and then elopes. Just like that. Really? Really really really?

I like everything you've written above, but my only disagreement is that Selmy would only take direction from king or prince. He would listen to Tywin if he thought it would benefit Rhaegar.

36 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

They don't grow winter roses in Harrenhal and I doubt they were chosen by chance.  If they were intentional, they were intended for Lyanna, otherwise  they'd have no special meaning.   Which means someone knew Rhaegar would win, or at least that Selmy would not.

Exactly. It's a specific type of rose connected to a specific family: the Starks. It's proof of advanced planning...a setup.

[JNR]

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Roose and Walder were Robb Stark's allies, and yet they did not go to Robb with Tywin's offers. They eagerly butchered their king and other allies, because they had "beefs" with Robb and unfulfilled promises. Why would it be hard to imagine that Selmy, Dayne AND JonCon had similar slights with Aerys and similar wants?

For me?  Mainly because Roose and Walder were amoral, egocentric turds, and Selmy and Dayne were

Quote

a marvel, a shining lesson to the world

Which isn't to say it didn't happen, but you asked.

I also note this recent tweet:

Quote

Make champagne Popsicles this Memorial Day

       -- Ivanka Trump

Hmmmm...

[JNR]

7 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Somehow in the hours that follow the mystery knight's victory Rhaegar discovers the fact, falls desperately in love and next day beats all comers to deposit the roses and then elopes. Just like that. Really? Really really really?

It does seem a trifle pat, doesn't it?

Rhaegar: I have found you, Knight!  Now I unmask you!
Lyanna: (blushes) Oh, no! I am unmasked!
Rhaegar: Your beauty astonishes me!  I must have you!
Lyanna: Ditto!
Rhaegar: But it's not just superficial! I so love your nobility, courage, and of course... your horsemanship!
Lyanna: OMG, you can sing like you're on Broadway and are a beast lyre player!  My soulmate!
Rhaegar: But... wait... what about your fiance... erm... Robert? What about my wife? My children?  And the stability of the Seven Kingdoms?  We might create a civil war!  That could mean mass death!

(long pause as they stare at each other)

Lyanna: Robert who?  What wife?  What children?  Who cares about mass death?

Of course, many months went by between the tourney and the purported elopement, in which, according to the feverish imaginations of RLJ fans worldwide, a majestic love was blossoming... but even so.

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

It does seem a trifle pat, doesn't it?

Of course, many months went by between the tourney and the purported elopement, in which, according to the feverish imaginations of RLJ fans worldwide, a majestic love was blossoming... but even so.

True, but that in itself is odd in that we have no evidence of any contact between the moment he tipped her the black spot and lifting her long afterwards, especially given that she will at least have been watched by the world and his wife, if not actively guarded after that shockingly public gesture

[Black Crow]

And returning to the political theme, unless he really was a complete fruitcake, the fact that the gesture was so shockingly public points to a political message; whether a warning, an invitation or both. 

[Prof. Cecily]

8 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

...It's a specific type of rose connected to a specific family: the Starks. It's proof of advanced planning...a setup.

So specific it only grows in the Winterfell glass gardens, IIRC. Or, at the end of the day,  are we simply quibbling over another type of 'lemon tree'?

 

1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

True, but that in itself is odd in that we have no evidence of any contact between the moment he tipped her the black spot and lifting her long afterwards, especially given that she will at least have been watched by the world and his wife, if not actively guarded after that shockingly public gesture

A good point, one I hadn't considered before.

57 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

And returning to the political theme, unless he really was a complete fruitcake, the fact that the gesture was so shockingly public points to a political message; whether a warning, an invitation or both. 

Lyanna as the woman who knew too much?

Possible!

[Melifeather]

6 hours ago, JNR said:

For me?  Mainly because Roose and Walder were amoral, egocentric turds, and Selmy and Dayne were

Which isn't to say it didn't happen, but you asked.

I also note this recent tweet:

       -- Ivanka Trump

Hmmmm...

What does Meera say to Bran? Sometimes the knights are the monsters.

4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

And returning to the political theme, unless he really was a complete fruitcake, the fact that the gesture was so shockingly public points to a political message; whether a warning, an invitation or both. 

Sometimes I wonder if it was really Rhaegar under that armor? We've had a couple instances in the books where someone wore another person's armor or was mistaken for someone else. Many people thought they saw Renly at the Blackwater, and Arys got someone to dress in his armor and guard Rosamund while she pretended to be Myrcella. Rhaegar was more interested in the singing contest, so maybe he let someone else, like Jaime perhaps, wear his armor? Jaime was upset that he was unable to compete, because Aerys told him to go back to Kings Landing to guard Rhaella and Viserys. Kind of the perfect cover if you think about it. And if Rhaegar took pity on him...

 

[SeaWitch]

Does this tie in with that idea that the Starks, Arryns and Tullys were considering some kind of action anyway?  A gesture that was saying to all of them, "Okay, I'm in" from Rhaegar? Something was supposed to happen at the tourney that Aerys got wind of.

 

[Brad Stark]

4 hours ago, SeaWitch said:

Does this tie in with that idea that the Starks, Arryns and Tullys were considering some kind of action anyway?  A gesture that was saying to all of them, "Okay, I'm in" from Rhaegar? Something was supposed to happen at the tourney that Aerys got wind of.

 

The tournament was to cover a 'Great Council ' to dispose Aerys and put Rhaegar on the throne.  Varys suspected it and had the king attend.

I don't see how Rhaegar's jesture could tie into that.  Insulting the Starks was the worst possible move he could make politically.

[JNR]

9 hours ago, Black Crow said:

True, but that in itself is odd in that we have no evidence of any contact between the moment he tipped her the black spot and lifting her long afterwards, especially given that she will at least have been watched by the world and his wife, if not actively guarded after that shockingly public gesture

Quite right. 

On the subject of known contacts, you can add to the oddity the fact that in the conventional RLJ Elopement scenario, Lyanna somehow never thought to notify her remaining family -- after Aerys killed her father and brother -- that she was in fact not dead and not raped. 

The usual explanations for this run the gamut from "the ToJ was not on the raven network" to "she felt too guilty about eloping to talk to her family."  But they all just seem to fall woefully short of common sense.

As does the idea that Lyanna would carry on cheerfully sleeping with the man whose father had just murdered her father and brother, and thus, months later, conceive Jon.  While it's theoretically possible, it definitely does not map to teenage girls as I have known them.

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Sometimes the knights are the monsters.

The problem with this is that we've read Selmy POV chapters and we know perfectly well he isn't a monster.

For instance, he struggles even to justify putting Hizdahr in prison, interpreting that as potentially treasonous... despite considerable evidence obtained from his own eyes and ears that Hizdahr tried to poison his queen.

Dayne is a somewhat harder call because we have no POV info representing his own thoughts, only his reputation... but that reputation is certainly a sterling one.  And, of course, Dayne is among the KG in Ned's ToJ dream who seem to have wished they could have been at the Trident (fighting for Aerys, like Selmy), but who (GRRM suggests in the Shaw interview) were prevented from doing this by Rhaegar's order.

[Black Crow]

5 hours ago, SeaWitch said:

Does this tie in with that idea that the Starks, Arryns and Tullys were considering some kind of action anyway?  A gesture that was saying to all of them, "Okay, I'm in" from Rhaegar? Something was supposed to happen at the tourney that Aerys got wind of.

 

Essentially that's what some of us have been discussing. We know that the tournament was a political affair.

For Rhaegar it represented an opportunity to garner support for a coup.

The pacts were already in place for the Stark, Tully and Baratheon marriage alliances orchestrated by the Blessed St. John of Arryn.

Whether at this stage the Arryn alliance was actively aimed at ousting the Targaryens we don't know, but if so it was an alliance Rhaegar needed to thwart if the Prince that was Promised was to be a Targaryen. No Targaryens No Prince.

Hence the suggestion that the circlet of roses was both a warning and an invitation [not an insult] - join me or else.

[Matthew.]

10 hours ago, JNR said:

Rhaegar: But... wait... what about your fiance... erm... Robert? What about my wife? My children?  And the stability of the Seven Kingdoms?  We might create a civil war!  That could mean mass death!

It seems a fair enough observation, given Rhaegar's limited characterization, to point out that elopement would be an extraordinarily selfish act, but is that an entirely reliable guide for how characters will think and behave--especially characters we don't know?

The problem with observing that characters should be thoughtful, should be logical, should consider the consequences of their actions is that, if the characters were actually following that principle, the story wouldn't exist.

Shouldn't Robb have followed the standard you raise here before marrying Jeyne Westerling? Shouldn't Cersei and Jaime consider the consequences for the realm and their House before maintaining their secret affair? Shouldn't Tyrion be too clever to believe that Shae actually loves him?

All of this is right in line with "the human heart in conflict with itself is the only thing worth writing about." What does conflict of the heart mean for Rhaegar? From my point of view, he has been characterized as dutiful but unhappy, but our information is limited enough that I can understand why some people might have a wildly different perspective.
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This feels like history repeating itself, but it seems as though you're taking a core idea, and making sure that you frame it in narrow and cynical terms, so that the very idea becomes ludicrous--yet how many objectively canonical plot points could you similarly present as silly, if you were so inclined? 

None of this is to dismiss the premise that the reckless, doomed romance would be an awfully trite path for GRRM to go down; what I doubt is the assumption that, just because something is trite, that means GRRM won't write it. It's an approach to assessing theories that is operating under the assumption that you will not be disappointed by the author.

The "I don't like X, ergo X is bad, ergo X cannot be true because GRRM won't write something that is bad" approach to speculation contains a glaring flaw: Darkstar already exists. 
 

8 hours ago, Prof. Cecily said:

So specific it only grows in the Winterfell glass gardens, IIRC. Or, at the end of the day,  are we simply quibbling over another type of 'lemon tree'?

This is something I've been wondering about. Do we know authoritatively that the glass gardens are the only place in all of Planetos where a winter rose can be found, or are they not quite that scarce?

Given the scope of Harrenhal - which was not just limited to the tournament, but also held singing contests, mummer shows, etc. - would there have been northern nobles, merchants, etc. present that might have winter roses in their possession?

The significance here is just how notable it would be for Rhaegar to have the roses in his possession. Could a popular prince of the realm reasonably request them from, say, a nobleman/noblewoman who has them in their tent, or even purchase them outright from a merchant peddling exotic regional wares at a mark up? If not, then that obviously points to a higher degree of premeditation on Rhaegar's part, but I'm not so sure that we have enough information for that to be clear.

[JNR]

5 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

It seems a fair enough observation, given Rhaegar's limited characterization, to point out that elopement would be an extraordinarily selfish act, but is that an entirely reliable guide for how characters will think and behave--especially characters we don't know?

Certainly not all characters.  Different people think and act in different ways.  Some are far more impulsive than others.

You cite Robb, for instance, but Robb is never shown to be particularly bright.  His rash conduct with Jeyne doesn't surprise me a tad.  You cite Jaime and Cersei, and the same applies; reckless creatures both from a very early age. You cite Tyrion, and yeah, he's far more deilberative... but Tyrion really could not have known in advance that (1) believing Shae loved him would necessarily lead to (2) utter disaster for him or her or anyone else.

How about Rhaegar?

Quote

The maesters were awed by his wits

And Rhaegar's situation was so very plain.  Heir to the Iron Throne.  Married to Dornish princess for political purposes.  Father of a child, with another on the way.

So yes, I think Rhaegar would have seen Big Fat Problems coming well before any elopement with Lyanna.  Unlike Robb, or Jaime, or Cersei, he was unusually bright, and unlike Tyrion, it would have been obvious Thing 1 was going to lead to Thing 2 in very short order.

 Furthermore, he certainly had the time to get over, or at least think through, any sudden infatuation at Harrenhal, given all the months that blew by between Harrenhal and Lyanna's disappearance.

It's also very hard to reconcile Rhaegar's cited noble nature with the idea that he would do something as profoundly ignoble as eloping with another woman... which, as he would have had months to contemplate, would surely have the effect of dishonoring his wife and children, and sullying the Targaryen name in a larger sense.

Yet he did disappear for months, and so did Lyanna, and despite what the fapp says, it doesn't appear that Westeros-at-large had a sweet clue where either of them was in all that time.  So GRRM is going to have to explain this situation in due course, and we can try to puzzle it out before then.