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Suzanna Stormborn

[Book Spoilers] R+L=J, A+J=T and other theories on HBO V.4

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5 minutes ago, Suzanna Stormborn said:

Why you say that?

Check the l**ks, but I think we are safe to assume that the dragon has three heads doens't mean that in the end three Targs are going to actually ride three dragons........

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Erm... I thought posting about leaked episodes is strictly forbidden around here.

 

6 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Check the l**ks, but I think we are safe to assume that the dragon has three heads doens't mean that in the end three Targs are going to actually ride three dragons........

And if that's the case the, imo, AJT becomes extremely unlikely.

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1 minute ago, Consigliere said:

Erm... I thought posting about leaked episodes is strictly forbidden around here.

 

And if that's the case the, imo, AJT becomes extremely unlikely.

Not necessarily.  The dragon has three heads may still mean that there needs to be 3 Targaryens for whatever, but it isn't going to mean that there will be three dragon riders.  I'm more convinced than ever that no one is going to ride a dragon except Dany.

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Just now, Cas Stark said:

Not necessarily.  The dragon has three heads may still mean that there needs to be 3 Targaryens for whatever, but it isn't going to mean that there will be three dragon riders.  I'm more convinced than ever that no one is going to ride a dragon except Dany.

The foundation of AJT rests on 1)Targ blood needed to bond with a dragon 2) Three heads = three dragon riders. If no-one but Dany rides a dragon then there is no narrative purpose I can think of right now for AJT. At least Jon being legitimate could have a narrative purpose beyond dragon riding depending on what Martin has planned for the character but Tyrion as a Targ bastard doesn't make much sense now if he isn't going to ride a dragon. Of course the theory is not completely ruled out as there is still the possibility that either Jon or Dany ends up dying and a third Targ becomes necessary.

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5 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

The foundation of AJT rests on 1)Targ blood needed to bond with a dragon 2) Three heads = three dragon riders. If no-one but Dany rides a dragon then there is no narrative purpose I can think of right now for AJT. At least Jon being legitimate could have a narrative purpose beyond dragon riding depending on what Martin has planned for the character but Tyrion as a Targ bastard doesn't make much sense now if he isn't going to ride a dragon. Of course the theory is not completely ruled out as there is still the possibility that either Jon or Dany ends up dying and a third Targ becomes necessary.

I think three heads of the dragon meaning is much easier for the author to write differently than what most have been thinking...e.g. three Targs/three dragon riders, than many of the other cul de sacs he has gone down.  Plus AJT exists for the most part because of all the clues he threw into the World Book, we don't think Tyrion might be a targ because he might need to ride a dragon but because the author threw in all these hints that he might be a targ.

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2 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

I think three heads of the dragon meaning is much easier for the author to write differently than what most have been thinking...e.g. three Targs/three dragon riders, than many of the other cul de sacs he has gone down.  Plus AJT exists for the most part because of all the clues he threw into the World Book, we don't think Tyrion might be a targ because he might need to ride a dragon but because the author threw in all these hints that he might be a targ.

AJT existed long before the world book came out. Yes, Martin fanned the flames in the world book but, like I said, at this point I have a hard time coming up with a narrative purpose for AJT should Tyrion not ride a dragon. Maybe Martin has a purpose that nobody has thought of yet. :dunno: All I'm saying is that IF Tyrion does not ride a dragon then that is a point against AJT being true since this forms a major part of the theory.

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1 minute ago, Consigliere said:

AJT existed long before the world book came out. Yes, Martin fanned the flames in the world book but, like I said, at this point I have a hard time coming up with a narrative purpose for AJT should Tyrion not ride a dragon. Maybe Martin has a purpose that nobody has thought of yet. :dunno: All I'm saying is that IF Tyrion does not ride a dragon then that is a point against AJT being true since this forms a major part of the theory.

The dragon has three heads:  each Targ will play a separate role in saving the world.  Those roles don't all have to involve riding a dragon.  

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2 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

The dragon has three heads:  each Targ will play a separate role in saving the world.  Those roles don't all have to involve riding a dragon.  

Still doesn't make much sense to me. If his role in saving the world does not involve riding a dragon then he can fulfill that role just fine as a true born Lannister.

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1 minute ago, Consigliere said:

Still doesn't make much sense to me. If his role in saving the world does not involve riding a dragon then he can fulfill that role just fine as a true born Lannister.

LOL, it may not make sense.  But then I am counted among the pessimists who believe the author has lost control of his story, is unable to reign in the many elements he created and set loose in the last two books, and this is the reason for the ongoing delays.  Some stuff in the books, like Doran 'sit on my ass and call myself a plotter' Martell's grand plan...doesn't make much sense already.  But, we will probably never know.  The show has thrown in some hints about Tyrion being a Targ also.  

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I think that a lot of the 'dragon decisions' on HBO are based on costs,and are entertainment-driven---- not based on sticking with the books.

IMO Jon will definitely ride on the show, which is why Drogon liked him last episode.

 

It is true that the show has not really touched on AJT hardly at all, they have barely discussed Aerys either tho, so any affairs or friendships he may have had dont really play a part in the show.  All it means is that in the great wisdom of D&D they didn't think it was worthy to survive their cuts (which include MANY very important plots and characters from the the books)

 

In the books, Tyrion being AJT and riding a dragon fulfills part of his arc (if you believe AJT) he's been obsessed with Dragons his whole life, treated like shit by father (for no real reason) etc.  Almost all of that was cut from the show.  We know Tyrion hates his father on HBO, but we dont know much else,Like we know the Tysha story, but we never once see Tyrion think about it again after telling that story in Season 2, in the books he is still wondering where whores go in every one of his chapters...... and the character of Saint Tyrion is so stupid and whitewashed that we never really see his desire for a dragon. We dont know he dreams about them all the time or that Joanna had an affair with Aerys or that the common folk thought that Tyrion was a curse sent to Tywin by the gods to punish him for rising higher than a king.

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I could be wrong...its hard to know how far the show hackery will go, but I generally have felt that Starks, Lannisters, wolves and dragons were going to get the roughly the same ending.  If you die on the show, you will die in the book ending [that isn't coming anyway], there might be changes to some degree in the manner of your death...but live or die will be the same.  So, I no longer think that Rickon will be the new heir and on whom the new Stark line will be founded, he will die, and it will be Sansa instead.  

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49 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

The dragon has three heads:  each Targ will play a separate role in saving the world.  Those roles don't all have to involve riding a dragon.  

Nor do all three heads of the dragon need to have Targ blood. 

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Tyrion's targ heritage has been a red herring from the get go. Even if it was discovered he was a secret targ (not going to happen), he still wouldn't form the third head, as he is part of one head (team dany) already. 

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1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

I could be wrong...its hard to know how far the show hackery will go, but I generally have felt that Starks, Lannisters, wolves and dragons were going to get the roughly the same ending.  If you die on the show, you will die in the book ending [that isn't coming anyway], there might be changes to some degree in the manner of your death...but live or die will be the same.  So, I no longer think that Rickon will be the new heir and on whom the new Stark line will be founded, he will die, and it will be Sansa instead.  

I feel that way about the 'big 5' characters who lives and who dies and who is in charge at the end. But that's about it at this point. I dont think Summer dies, Still not sure about Rickon and Shaggy. After all Martin went to great lengths to hide Rickon out on Cannibal-Unicorn Island, and to me it would seem very odd to hide him away all this time just to bring him out and kill him. He is still only like 6 years old in the books (or younger) at this point.

I think the show left out vast amounts of Jon's resurrection which will play a big part in his entire future in the books, including stuff with Ghost.

And like I said before the Dragonbinder horn is on the Cover of WoW, confirmed by Martin as the actual artwork, which means if nothing else, that the horn will play a huge part in DoD 2.0.  The dance will only happen if there are 2-3 other dragon riders (even if one is Vic with the horn). But it is possible 1 dragon will die, books and show.

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I'm a firm believer that Bran is the third head of the dragon. He's the character that started it all, the most magical, the person most deeply connected to the North. If Jon is ice and fire because of his Stark and Targaryen heritage, then it makes sense that one of the other dragon-heads would be a Stark. Bloodraven's comment that "you will fly" seems to be an indicator that Bran will one day warg a dragon, most likely whichever dragon the Others get their hands on. 

I doubt the show will reveal any of the Lannisters to be secret Targaryens, but for what it's worth, Cersei is the one they're playing up the most Mad King parallels with. Gleefully killing thousands with wildfire, getting aroused by the sight of torture -- she's practically Aerys Jr. here. 

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Let me weigh in here -- as many know, I have been thinking about the AJT issue for many years. As noted by others, AJT theory precedes the World Book. The books had pretty good clues already for AJT -- but WoIaF really sealed the deal for me (and countered one of the main objections that readers had no evidence of A and J being in the same place at the right time -- WoIaF made clear that they were). The evidence is rather strong -- not determinative like RLJ (because there is no other plausible answer there -- whereas it is possible TJT is really the case all along), but fairly strong. The notion of a "red herring" is not accurate because if TJT rather than AJT is true -- then there never was a mystery at all with respect which to try to provide false leads. Clues can only count as a "red herring" if there is a mystery to solve -- no mystery, no red herring. Rather they merely would be misleading clues for no purpose other than to cause readers to go on a wild goose chase. So why plant so many clues if there never was a mystery at all? GRRM does not seem to write that way -- where he adds so many little elements to suggest an issue -- for it just to be meaningless coincidence. Accordingly, I start from the premise that the clues are strong and I go where the clues lead me.

@Consigliere (my "main man" in terms of helping me write the AJT thread over in the book forum) is engaging in a number of logical leaps that I do agree should be made. First, even if a dragon dies in the show, that is not a certainty that a dragon dies in the books (I don't think the show has even mentioned the three heads of the dragon prophecy, so the show might be going in a bit of a different direction regarding the dragons role in the war). And he already stated the obvious -- that Jon or Dany might die (I strongly suspect that Dany will die in battle) and Tyrion will get the dragon of the one who dies. So the need for Tyrion as a dragonrider even if one of the dragons dies is still quite plausible.

But EVEN IF Tyrion never rides a dragon (on the show or books), I still do not follow Consigliere's logic. The clues are, for the most part, not clues that Tyrion will ride a dragon. They are clues that Tyrion IS a dragon (a Targ -- or in this case Targ bastard). Consigliere asks what purpose is there for Tyrion to be a Targ if he does not ride a dragon -- he can do the same thing as a Lannister. I have two answers to that point.

The first is that anyone who thinks that he or she has the endgame figured out is being ridiculous. GRRM loves to throw in plot points that could never have been predicted (for example, who predicted before book 5 that Varys had stashed a guy named Aegon on Essos to come over and try to become King). So as noted above, why it is important for Tyrion to be a Targ could be something that readers could not anticipate.

The second reason why a Targ has to be the third head and not a Lannister even if the Targ does not ride a dragon -- I would indicate also that the prophecy does not indicate that the Targ does something only a Targ can do. Basically, the prophecy is a vision of the future. As we know from Bran's vision regarding how Hodor becomes Hodor, there is only one timeline that cannot be changed -- and some people have the ability to see into it in "abstract form" (prophecies) and a smaller number can actually see it "for real" and even interact with it (the three eyed raven, in particular). So the prophecy merely is a vision into the future -- which will happen and cannot be changed. Again, the show has demonstrated (and fairly certain will be the same in the books) that there is only one timeline so any vision of the future is simply seeing what will happen but the timeline is fixed (the prophecy may be misunderstood, but the prophecy cannot be changed). So the three heads of the dragon vision is a vision that three "dragons" are needed to save the world. Clearly, in the prophecy, "dragons" mean Targs -- so the notion that the third head will not be a Targ is absurd (no matter that GRRM said it was not "necessarily" a Targ -- based on all the rules of prophecy he laid down, it HAS to be a Targ) -- but a dragon, whether red or black, is still a dragon, so bastard-lines from a Targ King are still dragons for prophetic purposes. In that sense the third head is not a "Targ" but rather a "Hill" -- i.e., a Targ bastard raised in the westerlands. But Tyrion must have a Targ father for the prophecy to be true -- and the prophecy must be true as it is a vision of the future and there is only one timeline. If someone can come up with any plausible interpretation of the prophecy that does not require three Targs, I am eager to hear it, but so far I have never heard a plausible alternative.

So based on the prophecy -- at least in the books -- means that three Targs must be instrumental in winning the war. The prophecy does not indicate that they do something that only a Targ can do. Rather, the prophecy indicates that three Targs are instrumental in winning the war. What else can the prophecy mean? I have never gotten any other reasonable alternatives. In theory, the third Targ could be someone other than Tyrion, but for numerous reasons (that I will go into if someone wants to suggest a preferred alternative Targ as the third head), the third head almost certainly must be Tyrion and not a different Targ.

So don't assume that anyone knows why Tyrion being a Targ is important or whether Tyrion will do anything uniquely Targ-esque to win the war. He probably will -- but even if he does not -- the prophecy still needs to be fulfilled and the clues still need to mean something.

So based on the prophecy -- which I believe can only reasonably mean that three Targs are needed to win the war -- and based on all the clues regarding AJT -- Tyrion is the third Targ. None of this analysis requires that Tyrion ride a dragon (although I still strongly suspect he will, but maybe he won't -- it won't mean he won't end up being a Targ -- at least in the books).

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We will have to wait and see. I don't expect the show to omit something as major as AJT if it is indeed true, so if Tyrion is a Targ bastard on the show then we can safely assume that this will be in the books as well. Conversely, if the show does not reveal AJT then we should be safely assuming that AJT is wrong. Unless the goal posts are shifted based on personal bias.

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On 8/14/2017 at 8:14 PM, Newstar said:

Jon having a Moment with Drogon and not Rhaegal was very interesting. It also seems like confirmation of Dany's death if the show sticks to the book rules of "one dragon, one rider" (as long as the rider lives), doesn't it? If Jon is going to ride Drogon, he can't do so until Dany dies (at least by book rules, the TV writers can do whatever they want).

I think that the showrunners are going for this "implementation" of the Azor Ahai profecy:

Jon is Azor Ahai, Dany Nissa Nissa, Drogon is lightbringer.  Dany will get pregnant hence will not be able to ride Drogon any more. At that time both Viserion and Rhaegal will be goners. Also at a certain point they will find that the NK is immune to both obsidian and valyrian steel and dragon breath might be the only way to kill him. So Jon will try and succeed in riding Drogon. Dany will also die of childbirth to completely fulfill her destiny as Nissa Nissa. Jon then will kill the NK using Drogon in a sort of "Kamikaze" action which will be pretty much the end of all three.

 

 

Edited by Marada78

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All prophecy doesn't seem to be the seeing of the future fixed timeline, since Dany saw her son grown up in her vision, but this version of the future never happened.  

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@Consigliere -- not personal bias -- just observation that the show really seems to be going its own way in more respects that I would have expected. For example, the show has hinted (really more than hinted) that Arya will be the one to kill Cersei. Even if show-Arya kills show-Cersei, I will still believe that the most likely candidate to kill book-Cersei is book-Jaime. We really do not know how much D&D are deviating from the plot. Sure, who lives and dies will be the same and who rules where or gets married to whom likely will be the same. But thinks like Tyrion as a Targ just might not fit into the scope of what D&D are doing given time constraints and trying to streamline the action. The show has not mentioned the three heads of the dragon prophecy or done much of the other groundwork for the AJT reveal, so D&D may have concluded that AJT was just too complicated to work into the story.

If AJT is true in the show, then obviously the likelihood of AJT being true in the books is incredibly high (perhaps still not 100% but maybe 99%). If AJT is not true in the show, then my personal assessment of the likelihood of AJT being true in the books is reduced -- but depending on how the plot develops, probably will not be reduced below 50%. i cannot really assess, however, until I see how the plot develops and how each element seems so inevitable that the same plot points need to be identical in the books.

Bottom line is that we really cannot be sure how much the show is deviating from the books or what elements D&D think need to be changed. In any event, I still suspect that AJT will be true on the show, so after the final season, we can reassess and see what happened.

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