U.S. Politics: Comey, Comey, Comey, Comey, Comey Chameleon

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Senator Tillis (R-NC) has collapsed on a charity run, and been taken to the hospital. No word on his current status.

He tweeted from the hospital he's fine.

[Zorral]

Last night the White House screaming continued, even as Erdoğan protesters -- presumably US citizens? -- were being beaten by non-USians, and nothing was done to stop it.

What a state -- and not single r senator or congercritter would speak on CBS this morning for comment. Too scared evidently.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

It does feel like things very slowly started turning the corner among elected Republicans last night. 

But I thought the same thing after the Access Hollywood tape came out, and we all know how that turned out. So I'm waiting for there to be a real concrete action, like a special prosecutor being named, before saying anything has actually changed.

But there's two key differences between now and then. First, they got their Supreme Court pick and second, the "he can change" narrative is dead. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

Well really, the Republicans don't need Trump anymore. They have the Supreme Court, and with Pence in charge they can run the country for the next 3.5 years in more orderly fashion.

And in 2020, well, would Trump really have been an asset to them?

I would not have a problem if they cut him loose at this point.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well really, the Republicans don't need Trump anymore. They have the Supreme Court, and with Pence in charge they can run the country for the next 3.5 years in more orderly fashion.

And in 2020, well, would Trump really have been an asset to them?

I would not have a problem if they cut him loose at this point.

Pretty much, but unless there's a miraculous turn around, Jesus could be the Republican nominee in 2020 and they'd still lose. 

And fyi, Pence would be a dreadful Presidential candidate. 

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Pretty much, but unless there's a miraculous turn around, Jesus could be the Republican nominee in 2020 and they'd still lose. 

And fyi, Pence would be a dreadful Presidential candidate. 

I don't think we can count out Republicans in 2020 just yet.  Political prognostications 3.5 years out are worthless.

I would agree that Pence is a really poor candidate, he doesn't fire anybody up.  He'd bring a lot of downsides and very few strong positives, other that support from evangelicals.

[Fez]

18 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well really, the Republicans don't need Trump anymore. They have the Supreme Court, and with Pence in charge they can run the country for the next 3.5 years in more orderly fashion.

And in 2020, well, would Trump really have been an asset to them?

I would not have a problem if they cut him loose at this point.

Pence would take national security and foreign relations issues more seriously, and I think he'd mostly stick to the mainstream consensus on all of it. So he'd definitely be a huge improvement from Trump there.

But I don't think he'd be that much of a help for Republicans on domestic issues; no matter who the President is there are still major differences between what the right far and center right wants to accomplish/understands what the senate is capable of accomplishing. And Pence would likely push Republicans harder against LGBT rights; which is a major loser for them. http://www.gallup.com/poll/210566/support-gay-marriage-edges-new-high.aspx Also, if Pence did manage to get more legislation through Congress, it'll most likely be of the sort like the AHCA, which will be a huge anvil for Republicans long-term.

I'd absolutely take Pence over Trump, just for the natsec/foreign improvements; but he wouldn't be any white knight savior for Republicans.

Its still extremely academic for now, but we'll see where things stand around the end of the August recess; after members have spent a month back in their districts without the cocooning support of their colleagues.

ETA: Speaking of future elections:

Though that's not quite enough yet. From what I've heard, Democrats need +10 to be confident in taking back the House (thanks gerrymandering and geographic sorting!). A couple polls are there already, but the average isn't yet.

[Zorral]

WTF? R-NC Senator Richard Burr, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, which is supposed to be investigating the ties between the the T campaign and Russia, said the burden was on The  NY Times to produce Comey's memo. Does he not know his position gives him the right and privilege to subpoena whatever dox they need?

IOW, he's just said he's not going to bother -- because he doesn't even think the memo is real / fake news.

Man, they're ready to die on this hill.

 

 

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well really, the Republicans don't need Trump anymore. They have the Supreme Court, and with Pence in charge they can run the country for the next 3.5 years in more orderly fashion.

And in 2020, well, would Trump really have been an asset to them?

I would not have a problem if they cut him loose at this point.

This is the other side to the "Pence would be a more competent leader of the GOP agenda" hand-wringing among liberals, and just as delusional.  If Trump is forced from office that will be gravely damaging to the entire Republican Party.  It's not as if Pence will just be able to be like,  "k, let's talk about tax cuts."

1 minute ago, Zorral said:

Does he not know his position gives him the right and privilege to subpoena whatever dox they need?

That's exactly what the Times editorial board said in response.

[Zorral]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I don't think we can count out Republicans in 2020 just yet.  Political prognostications 3.5 years out are worthless.

I would agree that Pence is a really poor candidate, he doesn't fire anybody up.  He'd bring a lot of downsides and very few strong positives, other that support from evangelicals.

Historically, substitute POTUSes, such as Gerald Ford, are pretty ineffective and it's a career killer for them. Their credibility is nill.

There are exceptions, such as LBJ.  But Kennedy was tragically assassinated (probably in a mafia fury plot), unlike Nixon, who was going to be impeached, so resigned.

 

[IheartIheartTesla]

I think the best case scenario for Democrats is to let Trump stay on. The incompetence of this Administration is such that they wont pass any major legislation, Trump will continue to be a drag on all races till 2020, by which time the Democrats can gain back the House and some governorships, and carry the White House as well. If Pence becomes President, its quite possible the House races may stabilize themselves and the supermajority could easily continue till 2020

Of course, we could have nuclear Armageddon and our rivers could turn pitch black in the interim.....

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Historically, substitute POTUSes, such as Gerald Ford, are pretty ineffective and it's a career killer for them. Their credibility is nill.

I think it's too small a sample size to really say.  Taking over after an assassination is totally different from taking over after a scandal, so really the only relevant example is Ford. 

I will say that if Republicans could somehow convince Trump to step down, Pence could probably get a lot accomplished in the next 3.5 years, even if he remained relatively unpopular and didn't get reelected.  However, Trump isn't exactly the type to "go quietly".  If he steps down, it won't be because Republicans asked him to, it'll be because he hates being President and wants to go back to golfing and judging beauty pageants.   

[OldGimletEye]

4 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well really, the Republicans don't need Trump anymore. They have the Supreme Court, and with Pence in charge they can run the country for the next 3.5 years in more orderly fashion.

And in 2020, well, would Trump really have been an asset to them?

I would not have a problem if they cut him loose at this point.

Would this be the part where they go:

"Okay, no more fuckin around people. This time we're really going to get conservative. And we mean it. This time it's going to work!!!!"

[Zorral]

Quote

 think the best case scenario for Democrats is to let Trump stay on. The incompetence of this Administration is such that they wont pass any major legislation, Trump will continue to be a drag on all races till 2020, by which time the Democrats can gain back the House and some governorships, and carry the White House as well.

No.  Just. No.  It will be far more profitable to have him O-U-T as soon as possible, so we can better concentrate on either reforming the DNC or forming a new one.  The Ds are perhaps not quite as corrupt, but they are hopeless as their reigning lights are far more interested in hanging on their own bits of power than in bringing on and supporting newer, younger,  vital and energetic figures.

Also, as you say, to prevent a nuclear war and the utter melt-down of the economy.

In the meantime, 'their' news media is endlessly blathering on about a murder ordered by the DNC / Hillary Clinton that was proven to be vastly otherwise long ago.  That's all the base is hearing.  Nothing about this treason and obstruction of justice.

 

[Zorral]

7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I think it's too small a sample size to really say.  Taking over after an assassination is totally different from taking over after a scandal, so really the only relevant example is Ford. 

  

That's what I said -- the examples I used were  LBJ vs. Ford.

 

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Zorral said:

That's what I said -- the examples I used were  LBJ vs. Ford.

 

You said that " Historically, substitute POTUSes, such as Gerald Ford, are pretty ineffective and it's a career killer for them. Their credibility is nill."

The only relevant example of substitute POTUSes who didn't take over from the President's death is Gerald Ford.  That sample size of one is not sufficient to indicate what our experience with President Pence would be.

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I will say that if Republicans could somehow convince Trump to step down, Pence could probably get a lot accomplished in the next 3.5 years, even if he remained relatively unpopular and didn't get reelected.  However, Trump isn't exactly the type to "go quietly".  If he steps down, it won't be because Republicans asked him to, it'll be because he hates being President and wants to go back to golfing and judging beauty pageants.   

Just like Nixon, nothing about Trump's personality suggests he would step down for any other reason than impeachment and conviction were imminent.

[Ice Queen]

33 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I think the best case scenario for Democrats is to let Trump stay on. The incompetence of this Administration is such that they wont pass any major legislation, Trump will continue to be a drag on all races till 2020, by which time the Democrats can gain back the House and some governorships, and carry the White House as well. If Pence becomes President, its quite possible the House races may stabilize themselves and the supermajority could easily continue till 2020

Of course, we could have nuclear Armageddon and our rivers could turn pitch black in the interim.....

I agree. The WH is in such chaos that Congress keeps getting sidetracked and can't pass their agenda.

That is about the only good thing that's come out of this mess. Their agenda is very, very bad for the American people, and the more roadblocks stand in the way, the better. 

[Zorral]

5 minutes ago, Crazy Cat Lady in Training said:

 

That is about the only good thing that's come out of this mess. Their agenda is very, very bad for the American people, and the more roadblocks stand in the way, the better. 

He is a clear and present danger at all times to the nation's welfare at home and abroad and needs to go now.  His own people admit they're terrified of what he's going to say in those meetings during his 8-day trip abroad about the middle east situation(s).  He cannot focus.  He's worse than a baby.  He won't / can't do his job -- he won't even read reports so they stick his name in every sentence or so because he will read his own name.  He has to be fired because he can't do the job, not even minimally.

He's like Andrew Johnson who took over after Lincoln's assassination.  He was entirely incompetent for the job of POTUS too, plunging the government into chaos.  He would have been impeached if Southern supporters hadn't poured millions into bribing the votes -- which even so he avoided impeachment by a SINGLE vote.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

50 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I don't think we can count out Republicans in 2020 just yet.  Political prognostications 3.5 years out are worthless.

Well, I mean, I was the guy that just said LeBron will be the Democratic nominee in 2028 or 2032........

That said, normally you'd be right, but I think it's fair to say that if nothing changes Republicans will get destroyed in the next two elections.