My take on the Tower of Joy

[Ralphis Baratheon]

Perhaps Arthur Dayne knew at least one Stark diddled his sister and he wanted to take poor Ned's head as vengeance.

In regards to the fight both sides should have brought a bunch a crossbows with them. Say what you want about Joffrey but he was ahead of his time when it came to crossbows. Coward's weapon or not they work great against armored Knights that are better at sword fighting then you are.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

18 hours ago, Wolfgirly said:

No! The Kings Guard were there at Tower to protect Lyanna and the baby, as Rhaegar ordered them to do even though he died and the guards still knew that. Imho Lyanna and Rhaegar were married.

You have failed to address the fundamental question implied by the story: why would the KG fight Ned if they both wanted to protect Lyanna and the baby?

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

15 hours ago, devilish said:

Let analyse the two main protagonists in the game ie Rhaegar and Ned

Out of 7 KG 3 are left guarding the tower of joy while another 3 are taken to the battle of the trident. The royal family were left with just 1 KG to protect them ie Jamie Lannister.

That’s statistic is quite significant especially when taking into context.

The KG were pretty much inside Rhaegar’s pockets. There’s no other explanation that can justify why some of the best and most loyal swordsmen in Aerys court ended up defending a rebel’s sister and her bastard instead of their king

We know that Aerys had little love for Elia and her children. In matter of fact he threatened the Martells of hurting her if they don’t commit themselves to war. We also know that Rhaegar was planning to usurp the throne which means that his wife and children would end up in imminent danger. Common sense would say, that Rhaegar would make plans to take Elia and her children out of KL to avoid Aery’s rage. Instead the crown prince diverted all resources to defend his lover and bastard. Were Elia and her children set to be sacrificed to give Rhaegar a valid casus belli to wage war against his father? After all, kinslaying is one red line that even the likes of Roose Bolton, Tywin Lannister and Randyll Tarly are terrified to cross

Which lead us to some educated guesses

Rhaegar saw Elia and her children as dispensable.

He was banking on Aerys going nuts by keeping his promises on hurting Elia and the children.

He saw Lyanna as a centre piece of a new world order. Which makes sense both from a prophetic POV (its crazy but Rhaegar believed that promise) and from a political POV. Lyanna held the key to the North, the Riverlands (her brother was going to marry a Tully) and the Vale (Jon Arryn wife is a Tully). Elia’s death would infuriate Dorne + most of the other houses who see Kinslaying as a grievous act which is cursed by the gods. Maekar struggled to rule after that and unlike Aerys he was a decent king

Ned’s decision making is equally strange

He went to Dorne (ie enemy territory) not with an army but with a small group of soldiers

The people he chose weren’t particularly known for their sword fighting. The Greatjon wasn’t there for example and I am pretty sure that Robert himself would have wanted to be part of that fight if given a say.

That suggest 3 things ie Ned had an idea of what to expect, he also knew that time was of an essence (hence why we kicked caution to the wind) and he made sure to surround himself with people whom he could trust.

Taking that in account I think

Rhaegar saw JS as a centre piece of his strategy irrespective whether the crown prince lived or died/ who sits on the iron throne

He took Lyanna and her unborn son to a desolate and therefore safe place, while leaving her with people he could trust ie great swordsmen who were in his pockets.

Someone must have leaked the information to Ned.

The two parties met. Ned wanted Lyanna safe and the war to end. The KG wanted Jon safe and the war to continue (possibly by taking the boy to Essos and lure the GC to join the fight).  Someone had to lose.

The ending is quite ironic. Jon Snow even as a Blackfyre would have been a great alternative to Joffrey

a- he had the potential to lure the GC to his cause.
b- Being Lyanna's daughter, he is possibly the only candidate for the IT that the North are willing to bend their knee to
c- he has more Targ blood in him then Renly, Stannis and Joffrey)
d- The Tyrells would have had an option to Joffrey and Stannis (one is a monster, the other is married to someone who has an equal legitimacy to the Reach and have fought in favour rather then against the sour king)

 

Well said. I agree with most of what you stated here, but I disagree with the supposed motives of the KG. If the KG are in Rhaegar's pocket and Rhaegar is primarily trying to fulfill prophecy, they should also be trying to fulfill prophecy. So in that context, I think it is more likely they were simply planning on burning the tower with Lyanna inside, as opposed to trying to continue a war with a newborn and arguably illegitimate baby as the figure head. But yes, there definitely had to be some tangible reason why Ned fought the KG at all.

And I think that Dany was born at ToJ, not Jon  

[ravenous reader]

46 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

And I think that Dany was born at ToJ, not Jon  

Curiouser and curioser...

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

53 minutes ago, ravenous reader said:

Curiouser and curioser...

 

B+A=J, R+L=D, and there was a baby swap. The real Dany is either dead or gone or never existed. Dany was given to Ashara because Ned couldn't hide a Targ-haired baby, and Ned claimed Jon as his own to protect the solidity of the Stark-Tully alliance which was dependent on Cat's children being the heirs to WF and could be threatened by Brandon's son running around the place. Jon was probably conceived in the Black Cells right before Brandon's "trial" and is about 3 months older than Ned claimed him to be. And ironically, since I think all telepathy/dragon/warg genes are X chromosome-linked, I also think Jon's warg powers come from Ashara, not Brandon. I have no idea what the logistics were for pairing up fake Dany with Viserys, but I assume Varys was involved with both that and letting Ashara into the BC to procreate. And the "overwhelming evidence" for R+L=J is quite... underwhelming. I hope that satiated some of your curiosity.

[maudisdottir]

19 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

since I think all telepathy/dragon/warg genes are X chromosome-linked, I

How do you explain Alicent Hightower's dragon-riding children?

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

Just now, maudisdottir said:

How do you explain Alicent Hightower's dragon-riding children?

Their genes would have had to come from Alicent, obviously. Long story short, there may have been some powerful genes in Westeros way long ago particularly in the Houses Dayne and Hightower, and those genes, if lucky enough to survive, would have been meandering back and forth between the southern royal houses ever since.

[ravenous reader]

11 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

 

B+A=J, R+L=D, and there was a baby swap.

So far so good.

Quote

The real Dany is either dead or gone or never existed. Dany was given to Ashara because Ned couldn't hide a Targ-haired baby, and Ned claimed Jon as his own to protect the solidity of the Stark-Tully alliance which was dependent on Cat's children being the heirs to WF and could be threatened by Brandon's son running around the place.

Sound logic.

Quote

Jon was probably conceived in the Black Cells

What?!

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right before Brandon's "trial" and is about 3 months older than Ned claimed him to be. And ironically, since I think all telepathy/dragon/warg genes are X chromosome-linked, I also think Jon's warg powers come from Ashara, not Brandon. I have no idea what the logistics

Now you're failing the infallible test of Occam's razor!

Quote

were for pairing up fake Dany with Viserys, but I assume Varys was involved with both that and letting Ashara into the BC to procreate.

'Letting Ashara in to procreate'...that's taking a 'bloody beautiful blade' a bit too far.  Good grief!  Do I need to run you through the litany of all your logical fallacies according to Traverys, or are you 'good'...?!  (I can give them fancy names if you like...)

Quote

And the "overwhelming evidence" for R+L=J is quite... underwhelming. I hope that satiated some of your curiosity.

We agree on the 'underwhelming'.  GRRM needs to do the reveal soon.  The everlasting tease about Jon's paternity is becoming a bit tedious -- like someone who won't have sex with you, yet keeps promising the promised prince(ss)!

As to my 'curtiosity'...(btw, I am glad you are accustoming yourself to my quirky sense of humor):

Quote

IN the High and Far-Off Times the Elephant, O Best Beloved, had no trunk. He had only a blackish, bulgy nose, as big as a boot, that he could wriggle about from side to side; but he couldn't pick up things with it. But there was one Elephant--a new Elephant--an Elephant's Child--who was full of insatiable curiosity, and that means he asked ever so many questions. And he lived in Africa, and he filled all Africa with his 'satiable curtiosities. He asked his tall aunt, the Ostrich, why her tail-feathers grew just so, and his tall aunt the Ostrich spanked him with her hard, hard claw. He asked his tall uncle, the Giraffe, what made his skin spotty, and his tall uncle, the Giraffe, spanked him with his hard, hard hoof. And still he was full of 'satiable curtiosity! He asked his broad aunt, the Hippopotamus, why her eyes were red, and his broad aunt, the Hippopotamus, spanked him with her broad, broad hoof; and he asked his hairy uncle, the Baboon, why melons tasted just so, and his hairy uncle, the Baboon, spanked him with his hairy, hairy paw. And still he was full of 'satiable curtiosity! He asked questions about everything that he saw, or heard, or felt, or smelt, or touched, and all his uncles and his aunts spanked him. And still he was full of 'satiable curtiosity!

 

[devilish]

5 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Well said. I agree with most of what you stated here, but I disagree with the supposed motives of the KG. If the KG are in Rhaegar's pocket and Rhaegar is primarily trying to fulfill prophecy, they should also be trying to fulfill prophecy. So in that context, I think it is more likely they were simply planning on burning the tower with Lyanna inside, as opposed to trying to continue a war with a newborn and arguably illegitimate baby as the figure head. But yes, there definitely had to be some tangible reason why Ned fought the KG at all.

And I think that Dany was born at ToJ, not Jon  

The KG are glorified Body guards and Aerys suffered from paranioa, which means he would expect as much protection as possible. If you want to know their allegiance then you only have to follow their trial and check whom they are protecting. As said 3 were protecting Rhaegar while another 3 were protecting his lover.

Whether they believed Rhaegar's prophecy or not...well that is more complex. As said, KGs are glorified sentrymen/body guards. Its not within their job description to think. Having said that, his selection of KG at the tower of joy is quite revealing.

a- Oswell Whent is Lord Walter Whent's brother. We all know that the tourney of Harrenhal was going to be used by Rhaegar to lure the Lords against his father. Which suggest, that Oswell is quite versed within Westerosi politics

b- Gerold Hightower is Leyton's uncle. The hightowers have great influence in the reach (one of them is married to Mace), they are quite involved with the Citadel and Leyton is quite versed with magical text

c- Sir Arthur Dayne - a legendary knight whose reputation is at par with Selmy's. The Daynes are one of the Martell's strongest bannermen

So you've got

 

- a person whose quite versed with Rhaegar's politicial strategy including his allies and enemies. His brother owns the biggest fortress which is located at the underbelly of Westeros empire

-  a legendary warrior who can lead armies to battle and whose got the respect and awe of everyone in Westeros. We all know how Selmy is treated in Westeros. Dayne is a younger version with more noble blood in him. 

- an influential knight whose got great connections with the Reach (60k-100k army), the citadel (everyone need maesters) and with people who are well versed in magic.

 

Rhaegar's son is also a Northerner whose uncle is married to a Tully and his aunt in law is sister to Jon Arryn's wife. That's quite a good start for Rhaegar's son to work his way back to the top

 

 

 

 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

7 minutes ago, devilish said:

The KG are glorified Body guards and Aerys suffered from paranioa, which means he would expect as much protection as possible. If you want to know their allegiance then you only have to follow their trial and check whom they are protecting. As said 3 were protecting Rhaegar while another 3 were protecting his lover.

Whether they believed Rhaegar's prophecy or not...well that is more complex. As said, KGs are glorified sentrymen/body guards. Its not within their job description to think. Having said that, his selection of KG at the tower of joy is quite revealing.

a- Oswell Whent is Lord Walter Whent's brother. We all know that the tourney of Harrenhal was going to be used by Rhaegar to lure the Lords against his father. Which suggest, that Oswell is quite versed within Westerosi politics

b- Gerold Hightower is Leyton's uncle. The hightowers have great influence in the reach (one of them is married to Mace), they are quite involved with the Citadel and Leyton is quite versed with magical text

c- Sir Arthur Dayne - a legendary knight whose reputation is at par with Selmy's. The Daynes are one of the Martell's strongest bannermen

So you've got a politician whose family own the biggest fortress which is strategically located at Westeros underbelly, a legendary warrior who can lead armies, and an influential knight whose got great connections with the Reach (60k-100k army), the citadel (everyone need maesters) and with people who are well versed in magic. Rhaegar's son is also a Northerner whose uncle is married to a Tully and his aunt in law is sister to Jon Arryn's wife. That's quite a good start for Rhaegar's son to work his way back to the top

I think you mean Rhaegar's daughter    

Well, they could totally still try to do all that political stuff. They could sacrifice Lyanna in secret and claim she died in childbirth, which she actually did end up doing.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

2 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

What?!

the conclusion about the Black Cells conception is 95% based on timeline necessities and 5% based on parallels to other elements of the story. Ned claimed that Jon is younger than Robb, and Cat got pregnant approximately 3 months after Brandon was killed. So in order for Ned lying about Jon's age to be believable, Jon probably would have had to have been conceived in the BC right before he died. And it would be a nice parallel to the tale of Bael the Bard conceiving a child with Lady Stark in the crypts beneath Winterfell.

2 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

Now you're failing the infallible test of Occam's razor!

 

2 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

'Letting Ashara in to procreate'...that's taking a 'bloody beautiful blade' a bit too far.  Good grief!  Do I need to run you through the litany of all your logical fallacies according to Traverys, or are you 'good'...?!  (I can give them fancy names if you like...)

 

LOL The Elephant's Child

EDIT: side note - the SSM that says Dany is "probably" 8-9 months younger than Jon would put the ToJ approx 17 months from the start of the war, which I think gives Ned a much more realistic amount of time to get to the ToJ than the R+L=J timeline, which puts the ToJ basically right after the sack of KL.

Additional side note - most people complain to me "Cat would be able to tell the difference between a 6 month old baby and a 9 month old baby." Well maybe, I haven't met many babies in my life and I have personally created zero babies, so I couldn't really say. But I will point out that we have no idea how long Cat was at Riverrun after the war ended before heading to WF. The only thing we really know is that Jon's wet nurse was still with him, and presumably still nursing him. So Jon could have potentially been 24 months old, or even older. Would Cat spot a 24-month-old claiming to be a 21-month-old and call Jon out? I doubt it. Especially considering Cat hated Jon and would have avoided seeing him as much as possible.

[kissdbyfire]

4 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

 

B+A=J, R+L=D, and there was a baby swap. The real Dany is either dead or gone or never existed. Dany was given to Ashara because Ned couldn't hide a Targ-haired baby, and Ned claimed Jon as his own to protect the solidity of the Stark-Tully alliance which was dependent on Cat's children being the heirs to WF and could be threatened by Brandon's son running around the place. Jon was probably conceived in the Black Cells right before Brandon's "trial" and is about 3 months older than Ned claimed him to be. And ironically, since I think all telepathy/dragon/warg genes are X chromosome-linked, I also think Jon's warg powers come from Ashara, not Brandon. I have no idea what the logistics were for pairing up fake Dany with Viserys, but I assume Varys was involved with both that and letting Ashara into the BC to procreate. And the "overwhelming evidence" for R+L=J is quite... underwhelming. I hope that satiated some of your curiosity.

Dany maybe never existed, but was given to Ashara? Jon was conceived by Brandon, while Brandon was in the black cells? And Varys let Ashara into the Black cells specifically to procreate with Brandon because... 

Seriously, of all the unsubstantiated tinfoil mad ideas, this is a serious contender to take the cake!

 

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

the conclusion about the Black Cells conception is 95% based on timeline necessities and 5% based on parallels to other elements of the story. Ned claimed that Jon is younger than Robb, and Cat got pregnant approximately 3 months after Brandon was killed. So in order for Ned lying about Jon's age to be believable, Jon probably would have had to have been conceived in the BC right before he died. And it would be a nice parallel to the tale of Bael the Bard conceiving a child with Lady Stark in the crypts beneath Winterfell.

 

 

LOL The Elephant's Child

EDIT: side note - the SSM that says Dany is "probably" 8-9 months younger than Jon would put the ToJ approx 17 months from the start of the war, which I think gives Ned a much more realistic amount of time to get to the ToJ than the R+L=J timeline, which puts the ToJ basically right after the sack of KL.

Additional side note - most people complain to me "Cat would be able to tell the difference between a 6 month old baby and a 9 month old baby." Well maybe, I haven't met many babies in my life and I have personally created zero babies, so I couldn't really say. But I will point out that we have no idea how long Cat was at Riverrun after the war ended before heading to WF. The only thing we really know is that Jon's wet nurse was still with him, and presumably still nursing him. So Jon could have potentially been 24 months old, or even older. Would Cat spot a 24-month-old claiming to be a 21-month-old and call Jon out? I doubt it. Especially considering Cat hated Jon and would have avoided seeing him as much as possible.

Regardless of how old Jon is when Cat first meets him at Winterfell, we know for a fact that Jon and Robb are very close in age. Therefore, for the underlined above to work, Robb would have to be almost the same age, i.e., ~ 24 months old, and we know he wasn't. 

[devilish]

6 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I think you mean Rhaegar's daughter    

Well, they could totally still try to do all that political stuff. They could sacrifice Lyanna in secret and claim she died in childbirth, which she actually did end up doing.

We’ve seen throughout GOT, the respect everyone have toward anything legendary. The blackfryre rebellion where fought simply because King Aegon IV gave the Targ ancestral sword to Daemon. That was enough for a bastard and his offspring to drag Westeros into a series of civil wars.

That same kind of respect is given to people. Selmy has no noble blood, but because of his actions he’s respected by so many Lords and Kings. He served under Aerys, he shared food with Rhaegar, Robert sent his own maester to tend to his wounds and he had little trouble convincing Danny to become part of her queen’s guard.

Sir Arthur Dayne has the same standing Selmy had with two differences. Unlike Selmy, Sir Arthur is also a nobleman + he’s the wielder of one of the most legendary swords in Westeros. Only the finest of all Dayne swordsmen can be sword of the Morning. So to answer your question, Jon didn’t need his mother to stay alive to get legitimacy. If Sir Arthur said that the boy was Lyanna’s and Rhaegar’s son then rest assured everyone would believe it.

That leads us to Robert Baratheon.  Once he married Cersei, Robert was at the apex of his rule. The North, the Vale and the Riverlands were lead by friends, The Stormlands, The Crownlands and dragonstone were under Baratheon rule and the rest were made to bend the knee. Having said that, like any fledgling dynasty that cant rely on dragons, its vulnerable to mistakes and structural weaknesses. Robert was taught to lead the smallest region in Westeros not 7 kingdoms. His source of power relied heavily on friendships and friends grow old and die. By the beginning of GOT, 2 of his closest allies had either died or were in their death bed. Would Sweet Robin or Edmure Tully show the same commitment to his crown as their parents did? Are they even capable of doing so?

TBF Robert was aware of it. By giving the Stormlands to Renly he gave the young Baratheons to lure the Tyrells back to the fold. Meanwhile he took the pain of going to Winterfell in person to sort any possible differences with Ned and to seal a marriage deal between the North and the crown.  Having said that, what would have happened if prior to his arrival to Winterfell Jon Targeryan popped up in the North with the GC? Would Ned send armies against him? Will his bannermen even allow him to do so? (ie fight against kin for some king who live in a flowery seat in the South) If Ned bends the knee to his nephew would the Riverlands and the Vale fight against the Northerners? Can Hightower seal a potential matchup between Margaery (whose half Hightower herself) and Jon? Things get even messier in time as Robb and Joffrey wont share the same bond Robert and Ned shared a generation before especially if the former learns that Sansa is being mistreated by her husband.

Jon could have easily been a big thorn in Robert's and Joffrey's side. No wonder why Ned was so desperate to reach the tower of joy to clean this mess up. After he 'rescued' Jon he pushed him to obscurity first by treating him as his bastard and then by unintentionally allowing Cat to guide him to the wall.

 

[Wolfgirly]

12 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

You have failed to address the fundamental question implied by the story: why would the KG fight Ned if they both wanted to protect Lyanna and the baby?

I might've mentioned this already, of not on this thread, then it was on another thread. I pointed out/asked a question really as to why anyone should think the KG would harm Lyanna and Jon? The KG were there to guard the tower as the prince asked them to do so. But fighting Ned and his group were just seen as trying to break in. I don't know and not sure why they couldn't allow just Ned to go in unless they didn't trust him. Lyanna was having Rhaegar's child. Why wouldn't Lyanna contact her family while she was staying at the tower of joy?

[Pacala]

Arthur Dayne, Baristan Selmy and the rest of the dudes blaiming Kingslayer- he sworn to protect the king

KG - we sworn to protect the king but fuck the king. lets protect public enemy no.1 the chick

The Martells fuck the king, our daugther and her childrens. KG must protect the chick. kill the Lannisters

Tiwyn fuck the king and my son. KG must protect whoever,Jaimie rules

Varys and he rest of the realm- fuck the king, KG are not on the radar anymore. littlebirds are in break time.

Mad paranoic king-pfff dont mind me, the babe is more important. take her away i dont want her in my dungeon and send the badass dude to protect her. the 16 old boy can kill the entire army.

Westeros - where is Dayne?, didnt he sworn to protect the king ? what, Ned killed Dayne ? wow...

wtf ?

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 5/29/2017 at 8:00 AM, Ralphis Baratheon said:

A little off topic but I always thought IF Lyanna did run off with Rhaegar and wasn't kid napped then she kind of lead Robert on. I mean at any point through letters or them seeing each other at Harrenhall did Lyanna ever tell Robert "Hey your swell and all but I really don't want to marry you for whatever it's worth."

Feudal marriage does not work like that. she was destined to marry and have children with a hard drinking womanizer who already fathered at least one bastard. That is why she ran off with the prince when he came riding along 

[Dorian Martell's son]

6 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Dany maybe never existed, but was given to Ashara? Jon was conceived by Brandon, while Brandon was in the black cells? And Varys let Ashara into the Black cells specifically to procreate with Brandon because... 

Seriously, of all the unsubstantiated tinfoil mad ideas, this is a serious contender to take the cake!

 

Bloodraven does everything. That's how all the baseless tinfoil works 

[sgtpimenta]

12 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

And ironically, since I think all telepathy/dragon/warg genes are X chromosome-linked, I also think Jon's warg powers come from Ashara, not Brandon.

Mendelian Genetics have no place in ASOIAF, I think "always he found the gold yielding before the coal" proves that well enough.

14 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

So in that context, I think it is more likely they were simply planning on burning the tower with Lyanna inside

And yet Ned thinks that Arthur Dayne was the finest knight he ever saw. That's a big compliment for someone who was willing to sacrifice your beloved sister.

[John Suburbs]

On Invalid Date at 8:49 AM, theMADdestScientist_ said:

snip

Mayhaps the kingsguard were following someone else's orders, not Aerys' or Rhaegar's, or were carrying out their own plot and both Rhaegar and Lyanna were taken against their will, in which case Jon might not be a Targaryen at all (he doesn't seem to have any Targ traits) and "promise me, Ned" means something else entirely.