How could Robb have won Walder Frey back?

[Blue-Eyed Wolf]

27 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Yo do realise that is wrong, right? He would never have joined Robb in the first place if that was the case as Robb was going up against the Crown before the Reach and Stormlands had rebelled. 

Well it's not that wrong.  He did earn the nickname "the late Walder Frey" for delaying entry into Robert's Rebellion until the outcome had largely been determined.

If things had turned out differently, this whole debacle is a good reason to start building another fucking bridge so Walder Frey doesn't hold a monopoly on the crossing anymore.  

Yeah I'm not sure how well Walder could have been appeased.  He holds on to every slight real or imagined forever.  It doesn't help to give so much away either and lose his other bannermen in the process.  There were no great solutions here, but Robb's already married and nothing to be done but offer up he best available options:  the heir to Riverrun, Edmure and Arya.  Catelyn even though to offer herself up if she had to.  That's three marriages into paramount houses.  It's not a king, but there could have been arrangements for any of Robb's heirs to marry a Frey.  That would put them in the royal line in the next generation.  

[GyantSpyder]

So, to talk about it in terms of negotiating and conflict modeling.

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/AGDM/wholefarm/html/images/c4-74.gif

There are two axes here -

• Do I care about myself?
• Do I care about others?

You could also frame this as --

• Do I care about my interests?
• Do I care about this relationship?

This, in one of the simple traditions, gives us five basic ways to approach a conflict or negotiation:

Avoid - I am willing to give up my interests here, and I am willing to give up this relationship

Accommodate - I care about this relationship but am willing to give up my interests

Compete - I care about my interests, but I am willing to give up this relationship

Collaborate - I care about both my interests and this relationship and am not willing to give up either

Compromise - I am willing to give up some, but not all, of both my interests and this relationship

And it's important to know both which one of these each party in a negotiation it looking to do. If one wants to compete and the other wants to accommodate, that's fine. If both want to avoid or both collaborate, that's fine. But if both want to compete or one wants to collaborate and one doesn't, then you have a real conflict.

And a lot of cracking negotiation is about not just assuming somebody is intractable and can't be dealt with, but understanding how they are approaching a conflict you have with them and looking for different strategies that take that into account.

So the thing about Walder Frey is that yes, he's selfish and without honor or principles. But there are certain relationships he cares about - specifically, he cares about marriages.

With regards to Robert's Rebellion, he didn't care about either "his side" in the fight between Robert and Rhaegar, or about his relationship with Hoster Tully, so he Avoided the Battle of the Trident.

That's important to keep in mind - Walder Frey doesn't actually care about his own interests that much. There are certain things he will do to advance his own interests, but a lot of things he won't. He likes to disengage and avoid conflict, which he can get away with thanks to his castle(s).

When Robb Stark negotiated with Walder Frey to cross with his army the first time, to Walder, it was a Collaboration, where he both helped the relationship and his interests - in terms of marriage. To Robb, it was a Compromise that leaned toward Accommodation, where he gave up the opportunity cost of marrying someone else but got to cross at the Twins with his army, and he improved his relationship with Walder. The willingness to strengthen the relationship on both sides is what makes this deal go through, I think, more than just what Walder got out of it in terms of interests.

The big thing that happens with Walder Frey after Robb breaks the marriage contract is that Walder Frey no longer cares about his relationship with Robb Stark anymore. Yeah, maybe he's out for vengeance, but more importantly, he stops caring about what Robb or any of the Northmen think of him. That's the cost of the social breach.

One of the assumptions you can make is that the Red Wedding is about Competition - it's about Walder Frey exacting his own interests at the expense of Robb. But Frey doesn't really get a lot out of the deal. Yeah, his daughter gets to marry Edmure Tully, but he could have had that anyway. He doesn't get to be Lord Paramount of the Trident (that's Littlefinger), and whether he gets Riverrun in the deal is still not an entirely settled issue since the Blackfish still holds the garrison.

It's perhaps better to think of the Red Wedding as a form of Avoidance. Walder lets somebody else deal with the problem, doesn't care about how it affects his interests with regards to the North, doesn't care about how it affects his relationship, and the reason he does it is to disengage from the North altogether and foster Collaboration and a stronger relationship with the Boltons and Lannisters.

If Walder Frey is now looking to Avoid Robb Stark, if that's his model for approaching this conflict, then "offering more" likely isn't going to do anything. Walder is not that invested in his own interests in that direct way, where he marches armies around and takes fiefdoms and stuff - instead he just makes marriages and has children and grandchildren and waits for that to cash out.

Robb's critical mistake in this respect - and the mistake of everybody else in his retinue - is continuing to presume that Walder Frey is playing an interest game, when Walder is instead playing a relationship game.

So if Robb really wants to deal with Walder Frey, he needs a situation where Walder isn't going to want to Avoid him anymore, or can't avoid him anymore. He is not in that position at the time of the Red Wedding. There isn't really a deal to be made here.

He could potentially turn this around by either attacking Walder Frey in some way, so that neutrality with regards to his own interests stops being an option, though that seems poor, or by winning some victories against the Lannisters to the point where he becomes a dominant power in the region and Walder has to deal with him. But even then Walder shirked his responsibilities to Hoster, so it's likely even then he would still not care.

The best move for Robb, whatever it is, I think, has to involve also avoiding Walder Frey at this point. He isn't going to strengthen the relationship, at least in the near term, and he isn't going to come out on top in terms of interests. So there's no reason for him to come to the table and negotiate. He has to find some other solution, however painful it is.

Of course the context of all of this is that Walder Frey has already invited Robb to the Twins under the pretense of another marriage pact, letting Robb think that he does care about the relationship, so this whole thread is kind of results-oriented thinking. In order for Robb to avoid the trap, he needs to recognize that his relationship with Walder has been damaged, and that his fear of slighting the Freys a second time is a misplaced fear, as the situation is already as bad as it is going to get.

What Robb needs is spies and ravens and communication, so he can better understand what his allies and rivals want. His failure to have effective communication and intelligence gathering is probably his biggest failure in the whole war and the cause of a lot of his mistakes.

At this point there were Freys openly talking in public places about how the Freys have unilaterally been calling off their other marriage pacts with the Northern regime internally without telling the other parties. If Robb, say, had a good spy in Harrenhal, he could have sidestepped this whole situation - or at least recognized how much more dire his situation was than he even thought.

[Bernie Mac]

10 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

Well it's not that wrong.  He did earn the nickname "the late Walder Frey" for delaying entry into Robert's Rebellion until the outcome had largely been determined.

The point was wrong. Robb was not the favourite when Walder joined him, the odds were heavily stacked against him and the war was just beginning so to say that "Walter's whole thing is being a coward who sits on the fence until he's certain he can join the winning side" is demonstrably false as proven by his actions in AGOT. 

 

10 hours ago, Blue-Eyed Wolf said:

If things had turned out differently, this whole debacle is a good reason to start building another fucking bridge so Walder Frey doesn't hold a monopoly on the crossing anymore.  

Which other Houses are free to do so. Bridges are expensive to build, maintain and protect. Any Lord whose lands are on the vast Green Fork could have built a bridge, no one was preventing them from not doing do. 

 

[PCK]

He couldn't have. 

[Angel Eyes]

33 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

The point was wrong. Robb was not the favourite when Walder joined him, the odds were heavily stacked against him and the war was just beginning so to say that "Walter's whole thing is being a coward who sits on the fence until he's certain he can join the winning side" is demonstrably false as proven by his actions in AGOT. 

 

Which other Houses are free to do so. Bridges are expensive to build, maintain and protect. Any Lord whose lands are on the vast Green Fork could have built a bridge, no one was preventing them from not doing do. 

 

So why did no one else build a bridge?

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

So why did no one else build a bridge?

Perhaps they have and they have fallen into disrepair. Bridges are expensive to build and to maintain while the Freys have already got the best built, maintained and protected bridge on the Green Fork. 

[devilish]

The Freys were able to marry within the Lannisters which allowed them to be treated as VIP in CR and was probably instrumental in them avoiding Hoster’s wrath. The one time, the Lannisters needed the Freys the latter showed them the middle finger by allowing the Northern army to slip by resulting in the Lannister’s army to be defeated and Jamie to be captured.

I am aware that Tywin is not Ramsey and that he would rather negotiate with people then punishing them. However, I doubt that the old lion was too happy seeing his son returning without an arm either.  Considering that Tywin is not an idiot then he must have figured out that the Freys had allowed the Northerners to slip by. Throughout Tywin’s history the Freys were asked to hold their end of the bargain once, and yet, they opted for the wolf instead.

Once the alliance between the Tyrells and Lannisters was made there was nothing Robb could offer Walder to appease him. The war was over and the closer to Robb a nobleman was, the worse it would get. In matter of fact Edmure was stripped of his lands and titles and sent hostage to CR. Walder must have spent endless nights thinking what would happen once the wolf is defeated. Will Tywin go full Castamere against him? Will he instead pardon him for his son’s sake? Or would he send him to the wall and give the crossing to Emmon instead? He must have thought that the red wedding would kill two birds with one stone ie it would be a clear sign of loyalty towards the crown + a way how to get revenge over the Starks for humiliating him.

 

 

 

 

 

[cpg2016]

The Freys were planning on jumping ship and betraying Robb even before the news of Robb's wedding to Jeyne Westerling came in.  And Roose Bolton was already plotting to betray Robb as well.

So long story short, after Winterfell was sacked there was nothing he could have done to prevent the Red Wedding, or at least the betrayal of the Freys and Boltons.  Nothing he could have given them would have been enough.

And if Winterfell hadn't fallen, it wouldn't have mattered.  Other important players have reneged on their oaths (Walder Frey not least among them) and gotten away with it; if Robb was winning, all would have been well.

[Chris Mormont]

There was nothing Robb could have done to win back the Freys.  Walder Frey had a good offer from Tywin and he was going to take it because it was the surer bet.  Winterfell was lost, so Robb was going to have to return North to reclaim it from the Ironborn, that means the Riverlands would be left to defend itself from Tywin.  So put yourself in Frey's shoes, this young kid betrays his vow to me, is now going to leave to go reclaim his lands, leaving me to defend myself against the greatest commander in the land.  What possible promises could you give me to continue to follow Robb vs a sure bet and be rewarded by the Lannisters.  

[aryagonnakill#2]

Realistically it wouldn't have been impossible it would have just taken time and a couple victories.  He could have handled Karstark better, imprisoning him rather than killing him as everyone advised.  Then he needed to execute his plan to retake the north, while avoiding the Twins so as not to fall into the trap.   Robb is not killed and Edmure and the others not taken hostage it is unclear whether the Freys would openly declare for the Lannisters or just remain in the Twins.

If he can avoid the Twins then Robb is not killed and Edmure and the others not taken hostage it is unclear whether the Freys would openly declare for the Lannisters or just remain in the Twins. Arya is returned to them, and then it is a matter of victory at Moat Cailin, which seems likely given what Theon saw.  They would've taken losses sure but with thousands of men they can overcome a few dozen sick ones.

From there he can rather easily retake the north and find out what happened at Winterfell and kill Ramsay, whether or not Roose would be killed is unclear.  But he would also likely get Rickon back soon thereafter as well.

While this was happening the Lannister Tyrell alliance would presumably collapse as it did anyway.  Tarly would likely still march into the southern Riverlands and take Maidenpoole, but we saw from Jaime's POV that moving men north of there became a problem because of a supply shortage due to how badly the Riverlands had been ravaged.  The siege of Riverrun was being maintained by food from the Freys, but the Freys would not have any hostages in this situation and Edmure would have the same 15k men or more he was able to raise to fight Tywin off at the Fords.  Given all this It is not really clear what the situation would be in the northern Riverlands but it seems doubtful to me that it would have ever been secured by the Tyrell Lannister (possibly Frey) alliance by the time of the current events where Aegon is landing, Euron is raiding, Tywin & Joffrey are dead, Tyrion is gone, Cersei and Margery have been imprisoned, etc, etc.

If in this situation Robb marched back south and Edmure still have some strength in tact in the Northern Riverlands then Walders allegiance can be won back likely just with a match to Edmure and honoring their original agreement for Arya to marry a Frey.

[Angel Eyes]

Pretty much, the war was lost for Robb when Theon took Winterfell, right?

[Trigger Warning]

Nothing, unless he can magically turn the war in his favour over night. 
 

Robb had basically done the single thing he could have to done to enrage Frey the most. When so much damage has been done why would Walder consider backing Robb against the might of Highgarden and Casterly Rock, he was in a position to exploit betrayal and get his revenge whilst being rewarded by the Iron Throne. Even if the Red Wedding wasn't going to happen Frey would have still backed Tywin. 

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 6/13/2017 at 9:53 AM, GyantSpyder said:

So, to talk about it in terms of negotiating and conflict modeling.

http://www.extension.iastate.edu/AGDM/wholefarm/html/images/c4-74.gif

There are two axes here -

• Do I care about myself?
• Do I care about others?

You could also frame this as --

• Do I care about my interests?
• Do I care about this relationship?

This, in one of the simple traditions, gives us five basic ways to approach a conflict or negotiation:

Avoid - I am willing to give up my interests here, and I am willing to give up this relationship

Accommodate - I care about this relationship but am willing to give up my interests

Compete - I care about my interests, but I am willing to give up this relationship

Collaborate - I care about both my interests and this relationship and am not willing to give up either

Compromise - I am willing to give up some, but not all, of both my interests and this relationship

And it's important to know both which one of these each party in a negotiation it looking to do. If one wants to compete and the other wants to accommodate, that's fine. If both want to avoid or both collaborate, that's fine. But if both want to compete or one wants to collaborate and one doesn't, then you have a real conflict.

And a lot of cracking negotiation is about not just assuming somebody is intractable and can't be dealt with, but understanding how they are approaching a conflict you have with them and looking for different strategies that take that into account.

So the thing about Walder Frey is that yes, he's selfish and without honor or principles. But there are certain relationships he cares about - specifically, he cares about marriages.

With regards to Robert's Rebellion, he didn't care about either "his side" in the fight between Robert and Rhaegar, or about his relationship with Hoster Tully, so he Avoided the Battle of the Trident.

That's important to keep in mind - Walder Frey doesn't actually care about his own interests that much. There are certain things he will do to advance his own interests, but a lot of things he won't. He likes to disengage and avoid conflict, which he can get away with thanks to his castle(s).

When Robb Stark negotiated with Walder Frey to cross with his army the first time, to Walder, it was a Collaboration, where he both helped the relationship and his interests - in terms of marriage. To Robb, it was a Compromise that leaned toward Accommodation, where he gave up the opportunity cost of marrying someone else but got to cross at the Twins with his army, and he improved his relationship with Walder. The willingness to strengthen the relationship on both sides is what makes this deal go through, I think, more than just what Walder got out of it in terms of interests.

The big thing that happens with Walder Frey after Robb breaks the marriage contract is that Walder Frey no longer cares about his relationship with Robb Stark anymore. Yeah, maybe he's out for vengeance, but more importantly, he stops caring about what Robb or any of the Northmen think of him. That's the cost of the social breach.

One of the assumptions you can make is that the Red Wedding is about Competition - it's about Walder Frey exacting his own interests at the expense of Robb. But Frey doesn't really get a lot out of the deal. Yeah, his daughter gets to marry Edmure Tully, but he could have had that anyway. He doesn't get to be Lord Paramount of the Trident (that's Littlefinger), and whether he gets Riverrun in the deal is still not an entirely settled issue since the Blackfish still holds the garrison.

It's perhaps better to think of the Red Wedding as a form of Avoidance. Walder lets somebody else deal with the problem, doesn't care about how it affects his interests with regards to the North, doesn't care about how it affects his relationship, and the reason he does it is to disengage from the North altogether and foster Collaboration and a stronger relationship with the Boltons and Lannisters.

If Walder Frey is now looking to Avoid Robb Stark, if that's his model for approaching this conflict, then "offering more" likely isn't going to do anything. Walder is not that invested in his own interests in that direct way, where he marches armies around and takes fiefdoms and stuff - instead he just makes marriages and has children and grandchildren and waits for that to cash out.

Robb's critical mistake in this respect - and the mistake of everybody else in his retinue - is continuing to presume that Walder Frey is playing an interest game, when Walder is instead playing a relationship game.

So if Robb really wants to deal with Walder Frey, he needs a situation where Walder isn't going to want to Avoid him anymore, or can't avoid him anymore. He is not in that position at the time of the Red Wedding. There isn't really a deal to be made here.

He could potentially turn this around by either attacking Walder Frey in some way, so that neutrality with regards to his own interests stops being an option, though that seems poor, or by winning some victories against the Lannisters to the point where he becomes a dominant power in the region and Walder has to deal with him. But even then Walder shirked his responsibilities to Hoster, so it's likely even then he would still not care.

The best move for Robb, whatever it is, I think, has to involve also avoiding Walder Frey at this point. He isn't going to strengthen the relationship, at least in the near term, and he isn't going to come out on top in terms of interests. So there's no reason for him to come to the table and negotiate. He has to find some other solution, however painful it is.

Of course the context of all of this is that Walder Frey has already invited Robb to the Twins under the pretense of another marriage pact, letting Robb think that he does care about the relationship, so this whole thread is kind of results-oriented thinking. In order for Robb to avoid the trap, he needs to recognize that his relationship with Walder has been damaged, and that his fear of slighting the Freys a second time is a misplaced fear, as the situation is already as bad as it is going to get.

What Robb needs is spies and ravens and communication, so he can better understand what his allies and rivals want. His failure to have effective communication and intelligence gathering is probably his biggest failure in the whole war and the cause of a lot of his mistakes.

At this point there were Freys openly talking in public places about how the Freys have unilaterally been calling off their other marriage pacts with the Northern regime internally without telling the other parties. If Robb, say, had a good spy in Harrenhal, he could have sidestepped this whole situation - or at least recognized how much more dire his situation was than he even thought.

Hey GiantS.  Thank you for the very thoughtful post.  I agree with a lot of what you wrote.  The second deal meant nothing to the Freys.  

Robb broke his oath and they lost all respect for him.   One thing to consider.  Walder didn't need Robb any more.  Robb needed Walder to have any chance at surviving this war.  We all know what Tywin did to the Tarbecks.  I would not chance he wouldn't do the same to rebels.  Robb was thinking of his wife and mother.  He wanted to have one last strike at the Lannisters.  

Robb only apologized and showed humility because he was the one in more desperate situation.  The Ironborn just took his castle and raiding the north.  His own bannermen anxious to get home and protect their families.  Winterfell was taken from him.  Robb was a rebel without a kingdom by that time.  He only swallowed his pride because he needed Walder's help.  

This just shows just stupid Robb was.  He screwed Jeyne after losing Bran, Rickon, Winterfell, and the North.  He knew how desperate his situation was and how badly he needed his allies.  He still followed his cock and broke his oaths to his most valuable ally.  He wanted to mend the bridge that he thought was still there when to Walder the bridge was gone.

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 6/12/2017 at 11:12 AM, Agent 326 said:

So which would you chose? Would you accept mine? Would you change mine?

Have the books written by a lesser skilled Author with a less complex story 

[X-Buster]

Robb could turn around and take his army home.  Just forget the war and garrison Moat Cailin.  That would leave Edmure Tully to fend for himself against the Lannisters but it's only Edmure left anyway.  There is an advantage to choosing your own battle ground and Moat Cailin is a good place to defend the north from.   Let the Freys negotiate their own terms with the Lannisters. 

[kimim]

There's nothing Robb could have done to fix the mess with the Freys, as the problem really had nothing to do with his breaking an oath to Walder Frey. Frey did something completely out of character for him: He sided with an untried, fifteen-year-old general against fucking Tywin Lannister. And the fifteen-year old lost, without actually losing, when Stannis failed to take KL.

Once that happened, Tywin had Frey by the balls. I suspect Tywin told Frey to end Robb as easily as possible (from a Lannister pov) and further told him that if that didn't happen, Tywin would go Rains of Castamere on him. And Frey did, using the broken promise as an excuse, and as a way to salve his own conscience.

 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

There is only one way , and Black Walder Frey said it . "  My sisters would not be loathe to marry a widower ."

[Bernie Mac]

On 2017-6-15 at 0:00 AM, E.S. Dinah said:

Robb could turn around and take his army home.  Just forget the war and garrison Moat Cailin.  That would leave Edmure Tully to fend for himself against the Lannisters but it's only Edmure left anyway.  There is an advantage to choosing your own battle ground and Moat Cailin is a good place to defend the north from.   Let the Freys negotiate their own terms with the Lannisters. 

Robb would have been finished either way. Cat points out exactly what would have have happened should he have turned chicken. 

"I do not know, Robb. What I do know is that you have no choice. If you go to King's Landing and swear fealty, you will never be allowed to leave. If you turn your tail and retreat to Winterfell, your lords will lose all respect for you. Some may even go over to the Lannisters."

 

Robb either had to win himself or make a deal with the Crown (whichever side won) or hope the South was fragmented allowing him to stay in control. Once he accepted being King he was doomed. 

 

On 2017-6-14 at 4:37 PM, cpg2016 said:

The Freys were planning on jumping ship and betraying Robb even before the news of Robb's wedding to Jeyne Westerling came in.

That is not true. They seemed to be loyal a Harrenhall, even referring to him as King Robb, after the Battle of the Blackwater. It is only after news of Robb's marriage do they leave.

On 2017-6-14 at 4:37 PM, cpg2016 said:

 

 And Roose Bolton was already plotting to betray Robb as well.

Only from the Battle of the Blackwater onwards. 

On 2017-6-14 at 4:37 PM, cpg2016 said:

So long story short, after Winterfell was sacked there was nothing he could have done to prevent the Red Wedding, or at least the betrayal of the Freys and Boltons.  Nothing he could have given them would have been enough.

He married Jeyne after the Battle of the Blackwater. The Red Wedding, according to the author, happened as result of Robb's marriage. The Freys may have tried to get Robb to sue for peace and done so themsleves but their savage betrayal was due to the Jeyne. 

And of course had Robb not executed Rickard Karstark the Karstarks with Roose may never have betrayed him either. 

 

[Agent 326]

On 6/12/2017 at 4:48 PM, Lord Wraith said:

Hard to say. Robb has basically lost the war at this point and Walder Frey isn't known for joining the losing side.

Ummmmmmm (facepalm). I don't know what to say to that. Look at Stannis and where he is and then keep in mind Robb probably would've taken Moat Cailin and then who knows. He may pull of another situation like he did in AGOT. Where he leads some of his men to break the Seige of Riverrun while the rest aid the Wall, collect Jon and then leave some men there and the rest on the way south retake Deepwood Motte and Torrhen's Square and gaurd those areas. But also Robb wouldn't have to deal with the Freys or Boltons or send a smuggler who happens to be his hand to bring back Rickon from Skagos (Wyman likely would've sent a few ships in this case, as I always interpreted sending Davos is a way of staying secretive about it). After that I really don't know, he might send Cat, Edmure and 200 men to try to win the Vale.

[Agent 326]

On 6/14/2017 at 1:07 PM, Chris Mormont said:

Walder Frey had a good offer from Tywin

Lol. Nope he didn't. Let's review these terms. A lot will be never fulfilled.

Daven Lannister marries one of Walder Frey's daughters/ granddaughters. Okay that likely will happen.

Roose Bolton is made Warden of the North, until a son by Tyrion and Sansa comes of age. Hmmm, that may not go so well for house Bolton.

Emmon Frey gets Riverrun. And well the Blackfish still holds it so there is a chance they never get Riverrun.

Lancel Lannister is to get Darry and marry one of Walder Frey's daughters/ grandaughters. Well that never happened, Lancel never consumated the marriage and chose to forsake Darry.

Joy Hill will marry on of Walder's bastard sons. Well that is meaningless. Also Jaime at one point suggests that Joy could marry one of Gawen Westerling's sons, opps.

Ramsay will marry "Arya Stark" who is a fake and ends up escaping.

And the Crown doesn't aid Roose in talking Moat Cailin or in taking out Stannis or defending the North.

And now everyone insults and hates Freys.