What will happen to Stannis in TWOW?

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Stannis will die at some point, and probably during TWOW. But I don't expect it to be in a way any of us could predict.

And I will go on the record and say there is no way he's burning Shireen. For one thing he won't have to, as soon as Mel and Selyse read the PL they'll probably burn the kid and if they're hesitating at all, Val will push them over the edge. For another, I've read that TWOW sample chapter.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 6/17/2017 at 5:03 PM, Kitten of the Canals said:

Sup friends, How do you think things will turn up for Stannis in the next book? Will he suffer the same fate in the show or will he surprise us all?

IMO considering the current situation he's in, I think he will end up dead at the start of the book.

Would love to know your thoughts on this..

ValarMorghulis

When Asha is taken by Stannis outside Deepwood Motte we learn a bit about the Ironmen's view of death...

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A trumpet blew. 

That' s wrong, she thought. There are no trumpets in the Drowned God' s watery halls. Below the waves the merlings hail their lord by blowing into seashells.

She dreamt of red hearts burning, and a black stag in a golden wood with flame streaming from his antlers.

And then we hear from Patchface shortly before Jon is attacked by Bowen Marsh...

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Patchface jumped up. "I will lead it!" His bells rang merrily. "We will march into the sea and out again. Under the waves we will ride seahorses, and mermaids will blow seashells to announce our coming, oh, oh, oh."

Jon XIII, Dance

The author is telling us that Stannis will march under the sea, that Stannis’s host will be defeated, and that Stannis will be killed. 

But what happens to drowned men? They are resurrected, and they rise harder and stronger. Patchface himself apparently drowned but washed ashore and was resurrected, albeit softer and dumber. (Davos was too.)  

Stannis has just obtained the backing of the Iron Bank of Braavos, and we have reason to suspect that

Spoiler

he intends to effect a ruse in the battle against Houses Bolton and Frey in which he will feign defeat and death.

Moreover, we know that House Manderly, which has completed a small armada, has pledged to aid Stannis if Stannis's man Davos recovers Rickon, and we know that Manderly is associated with mermen. 

Word of Stannis's defeat and death will spread, thus marching into the sea, but Stannis and Manderly will triumph over Bolton. 

A lot of Freys and some traitorous northmen are gonna get whacked in battle for the carrion feeders. 

I believe the George sometimes substitutes crabs for carrion crows picking over the dead. 

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They won many battles over the next two years, culminating in Prince Daemon killing the Myrish prince--Admiral Craghas Drahar, called Crabfeeder--in single combat.

Viserys I, TWOIAF

In between the seashell quotes in Dance, we have this...

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"Under the sea mermen feast on starfish soup, and all the serving men are crabs," Patchface proclaimed as they went. "I know, I know, oh, oh, oh."

Jon X, Dance

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But that was in the dawn of days, when mighty men still dwelt on earth and sea. The hall had been warmed by Nagga's living fire, which the Grey King had made his thrall. On its walls hung tapestries woven from silver seaweed most pleasing to the eyes. The Grey King's warriors had feasted on the bounty of the sea at a table in the shape of a great starfish, whilst seated upon thrones carved from mother-of-pearl. Gone, all the glory gone. Men were smaller now. Their lives had grown short. The Storm God drowned Nagga's fire after the Grey King's death, the chairs and tapestries had been stolen, the roof and walls had rotted away. Even the Grey King's great throne of fangs had been swallowed by the sea. Only Nagga's bones endured to remind the ironborn of all the wonder that had been.

The Drowned Man, Feast 19

I have to wonder whether those tapestries of silver seaweed might have been entrails. The First Men made offerings to the Old Gods by hanging entrails in the weirwoods...

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"Then a long cruel winter fell," said Ser Bartimus. "The White Knife froze hard, and even the firth was icing up. The winds came howling from the north and drove them slavers inside to huddle round their fires, and whilst they warmed themselves the new king come down on them. Brandon Stark this was, Edrick Snowbeard's great-grandson, him that men called Ice Eyes. He took the Wolf's Den back, stripped the slavers naked, and gave them to the slaves he'd found chained up in the dungeons. It's said they hung their entrails in the branches of the heart tree, as an offering to the gods. The old gods, not these new ones from the south. Your Seven don't know winter, and winter don't know them."

Davos IV, Dance 29

Stannis will then settle a fairs at the Wall. Shireen's goose is cooked...

Quote

At the top of the steps Davos heard a soft jingle of bells that could only herald Patchface. The princess's fool was waiting outside the maester's door for her like a faithful hound. Dough-soft and slump-shouldered, his broad face tattooed in a motley pattern of red and green squares, Patchface wore a helm made of a rack of deer antlers strapped to a tin bucket. A dozen bells hung from the tines and rang when he moved . . . which meant constantly, since the fool seldom stood still. He jingled and jangled his way everywhere he went; small wonder that Pylos had exiled him from Shireen's lessons. "Under the sea the old fish eat the young fish," the fool muttered at Davos. He bobbed his head, and his bells clanged and chimed and sang. "I know, I know, oh oh oh."

Davos V, Storm 54

Melisandre is old...

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... Strange voices called to her from days long past.

...

... Melisandre had practiced her art for years beyond count, and she had paid the price.

Melisandre, Dance 31

Shireen is young...

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Her name was Shireen. She would be ten on her next name day, and she was the saddest child that Maester Cressen had ever known.

Prologue, Clash

Shireen wants king’s blood...

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Melisandre moved closer. "Save them, sire. Let me wake the stone dragons. Three is three. Give me the boy."

...

... He turned back to Melisandre. "You swear there is no other way? Swear it on your life, for I promise, you shall die by inches if you lie."

... Melisandre went to him, her red lips parted, her ruby throbbing. "Give me this boy," she whispered, "and I will give you your kingdom."

"He can't," said Davos. "Edric Storm is gone."

Davos VI, Storm 63

Shireen has king’s blood, and she is a dead girl...

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"If Stannis wins his war, Shireen will stand as heir to the Iron Throne."

"Then I pity your Seven Kingdoms."

"The maesters say greyscale is not—"

"The maesters may believe what they wish. Ask a woods witch if you would know the truth. The grey death sleeps, only to wake again. The child is not clean! "

"She seems a sweet girl. You cannot know—"

"I can. You know nothing, Jon Snow." Val seized his arm. "I want the monster out of there. Him and his wet nurses. You cannot leave them in that same tower as the dead girl."

Melisandre cannot burn Edric Storm, but she is going to burn Shireen with Selyse’s blessing, since they will both be desperate having seen Jon Snow betrayed and wounded or dead, and having come to believe that Ramsay has defeated and killed Stannis.

And the old fish will eat the young fish. Poor Shireen. Stannis is gonna be pissed, and Melisandre is gonna end up like Serala, the Lace Serpent of Duskendale...

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The queen's men might remain fervent followers of the Lord of Light, but the lesser folk of Dragonstone were drifting back to the gods they'd known all their lives. They said Stannis was ensorceled, that Melisandre had turned him away from the Seven to bow before some demon out of shadow, and . . . worst sin of all . . . that she and her god had failed him. And there were knights and lordlings who felt the same.

Davos V, Storm 54

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"In Duskendale they love Lord Denys still, despite the woe he brought them. 'Tis Lady Serala that they blame, his Myrish wife. The Lace Serpent, she is called. ... The Lace Serpent filled her husband's ear with Myrish poison, they say, until Lord Denys rose against his king and took him captive. ...

... "Once Lord Denys lost his hostage, he opened his gates and ended his defiance rather than let Lord Tywin take the town. He bent the knee and begged for mercy, but the king was not of a forgiving mind. Lord Denys lost his head, as did his brothers and his sister, uncles, cousins, all the lordly Darklyns. The Lace Serpent was burned alive, poor woman, though her tongue was torn out first, and her female parts, with which it was said that she had enslaved her lord. Half of Duskendale will still tell you that Aerys was too kind to her."

Brienne II, Feast 9

I suppose being burned alive would be a fitting end for Melisandre. Stannis, of course, will burn, but not at a stake...

Stannis will then march south to threaten Aegon and/or Daenerys, or possibly Euron. 

And they'll be joined by the river lords still allied with North...

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"Under the sea, men marry fishes." Patchface did a little dance step, jingling his bells. "They do, they do, they do."

Jon XIII, Dance

But not the Brackens...

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Memories of ancient wrongs and bygone betrayals were not oft put aside by the lords of the Trident, whose enmities ran as deep as the rivers that watered their lands. Time and again, one or more of these riverlords would join with some invader against their own king; indeed, in some cases it was there very lords who brought the outsiders into the riverlands, offering them lands or gold or daughters for their help against familiar foes.

The Riverlands, TWOIAF

Stannis's host of Nothmen and Rivermen will array for battle at the Trident. Their numbers will be swollen by Northern childless and homeless men, unwed men, old men, and younger sons coming for war, for adventure and plunder, and for a glorious death to spare their kin beyond the Neck one more mouth to feed (just like Creegan Stark's host in the Dance of the Dragons). Daenerys will meet them...

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That night she dreamt she was Rhaegar, riding to the Trident. But she was mounted on a dragon, not a horse. When she saw the Usurpers rebel host across the river they were armored all in ice, but she bathed them in dragonfire and they melted away like dew and turned the Trident into a torrent.

However, I think rather than burn this host she will take it for her own to fight Aegon. Recall how Stannis took Renly's power for his own...

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"I beg you in the name of the Mother," Catelyn began when a sudden gust of wind flung open the door of the tent. She thought she glimpsed movement, but when she turned her head, it was only the king's shadow shifting against the silken walls. She heard Renly begin a jest, his shadow moving, lifting its sword, black on green, candles guttering, shivering, something was queer, wrong, and then she saw Renly's sword still in its scabbard, sheathed still, but the shadowsword . . .

"Cold," said Renly in a small puzzled voice, a heartbeat before the steel of his gorget parted like cheesecloth beneath the shadow of a blade that was not there. He had time to make a small thick gasp before the blood came gushing out of his throat.

Catelyn IV, Clash

We know that the North fought on the black side in the Dance of Dragons. And I seem to recall an SSM where the George said the North tended to be loyalist after Torrhen knelt (or perhaps it was a post by Ran). We know that Daenerys is going to slay the lie that is Stannis or his claim. Perhaps Drogon, the shadow, will remove Stannis and Daenerys will claim Stannis's forces the way Stannis claimed Renly's.

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It were the black one, the man said, in a Ghiscari growl, the winged shadow. He come down from the sky and and

Daenerys I, Dance 2

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"I know the cost! Last night, gazing into that hearth, I saw things in the flames as well. I saw a king, a crown of fire on his brows, burning . . . burning, Davos. His own crown consumed his flesh and turned him into ash. Do you think I need Melisandre to tell me what that means? Or you?"

Davos V, Storm 54

[Aegon1FanBoy]

I do see him beating the Bolton's but dying whats with this burnign Shireen? Is what happened in the show a fact 

[The Fattest Leech]

17 minutes ago, Aegon1FanBoy said:

I do see him beating the Bolton's but dying whats with this burnign Shireen? Is what happened in the show a fact 

No. Never. The mummer's version is just that... a mummer's version. The best that I can find is that the showrunners were "told" by George that (just in case, I am using the secret eye)

Spoiler

The showrunners say that George told them Shireen would burn, and the showrunners made Stannis burn Shireen. I can only find any info that says Shireen will burn... but nothing that says Stannis will do it in the books. If anyone has this info where George attributes that Stannis will burn his heir in TWOW, please share (in a secret eye tag).

I do not think Stannis will burn Shireen. I think Melisandre and the ultra crazy devout Selyse, who doesn't really care for her daughter, will do it when they think "all is lost" and they need to raise someone. Melisandre is one of the ones that claims "only death can pay for life, " the other being Mirri Maz Duur, however, Melisandre is the "sword without a hilt". She has little control and understanding of her talents/magics, especially if they are, indeed, increased while in the presence of the wall. This is a dangerous mix for everyone around her. 

The most I could find George talking about this is:

• So what's Stannis going to do when Mel decides to sacrifice Shireen? (Now, that actually startled him a bit. He said, well, yes, it is the blood of a king. Then he just handed me the bowl of cheese doodles. I'm not sure if that meant anything at all...)http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1283

To the OP: As far as the battle, I believe like most here in similar ways. Stannis will win this battle with the Maderly's coming up the rear to rip the Frey's apart. The icy, holey up lake will be used like a giant piece of Swiss cheese drawing in the unsuspecting Frey rats. Stannis's has his nightbright sword and what better time to put it to use. Amirite? Basically, I do subscribe to almost all parts of the Night Lamp theory (linked below) but I wonder which of the two between Ramsay and Roose will be left for judgement? I tend to think Roose will be left to answer directly to a Stark... but I could be wrong. Also, there could be a little cave play under Winterfell with either an escape, or an attempted escape, IF other interesting theories are true. And Rickon will come in through Eastwatch with a herd of mammoths.

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/08/28/the-night-lamp-revisited-the-wrath-of-the-old-and-the-new/

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

No. Never. The mummer's version is just that... a mummer's version. The best that I can find is that the showrunners were "told" by George that (just in case, I am using the secret eye)

  Hide contents

The showrunners say that George told them Shireen would burn, and the showrunners made Stannis burn Shireen. I can only find any info that says Shireen will burn... but nothing that says Stannis will do it in the books. If anyone has this info where George attributes that Stannis will burn his heir in TWOW, please share (in a secret eye tag).

I do not think Stannis will burn Shireen. I think Melisandre and the ultra crazy devout Selyse, who doesn't really care for her daughter, will do it when they think "all is lost" and they need to raise someone. Melisandre is one of the ones that claims "only death can pay for life, " the other being Mirri Maz Duur, however, Melisandre is the "sword without a hilt". She has little control and understanding of her talents/magics, especially if they are, indeed, increased while in the presence of the wall. This is a dangerous mix for everyone around her. 

The most I could find George talking about this is:

• So what's Stannis going to do when Mel decides to sacrifice Shireen? (Now, that actually startled him a bit. He said, well, yes, it is the blood of a king. Then he just handed me the bowl of cheese doodles. I'm not sure if that meant anything at all...)http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1283

To the OP: As far as the battle, I believe like most here in similar ways. Stannis will win this battle with the Maderly's coming up the rear to rip the Frey's apart. The icy, holey up lake will be used like a giant piece of Swiss cheese drawing in the unsuspecting Frey rats. Stannis's has his nightbright sword and what better time to put it to use. Amirite? Basically, I do subscribe to almost all parts of the Night Lamp theory (linked below) but I wonder which of the two between Ramsay and Roose will be left for judgement? I tend to think Roose will be left to answer directly to a Stark... but I could be wrong. Also, there could be a little cave play under Winterfell with either an escape, or an attempted escape, IF other interesting theories are true. And Rickon will come in through Eastwatch with a herd of mammoths.

https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/08/28/the-night-lamp-revisited-the-wrath-of-the-old-and-the-new/

Over the course of our discussions Lord Varys has articulated quite passionately why Stannis's burning of Shirreen is an integral part of his character arc. I understand his argument, and where he is coming from. Personally, however, I don't believe it fits with the practicalities of the plot, particularly given everything that would have to happen to get Stannis to a position and motivation to do so.

I think the Night Lamps ploy works, and the Freys get wiped out. The Manderlys play their part in it, and join with Stannis. At some point Ramsay arrives at the scene, and here things get murky.

Clearly, news of Stannis's death is part of the unfolding events. He refers to it himself in the Winds chapter, and Ramsay refers to it in his letter. I believe this might be the catalyst for Mellisandre to do the deed and burn Shirreen. The alternative is for Stannis to take Winterfell and that becomes problematic, because that would essentially represent a massive rise in his fortunes, with him effectively taking control of the entire North. His force will go up from the current 5000 to 15000 or more, with the Manderlys joining him in full force, and the former allies of the Boltons joining him en masse. And that's beforethe 20k Essosi sellswords even arrive.

Suddenly he is in the best position he has been in since the Blackwater. Hardly the desperate situation that would drive him to burn Shirreen. And if he remains in charge of the North until Dany arrives, that effectively removes any role for Jon or any of the Stark kids to be representing the North in negotiations with Dany. Stannis as leader of the North removes the Starks from positions of prominence, and delays his imminent downfall by a book or more. And only his imminent downfall could lead him to burn Shirreen.

That's why I see something unexpected happening in the afermath of the victory at the Battle of Ice. Maybe Stannis wins, but is gravely wounded, and effectively out of action as a leader for the foreseeable future. And without him, who does leadership of the North then fall to? Only his indomitable will has bound his new allies to him - albeit loosely - and if that strong leadership is absent, and the Boltons are now gone, they will back out very quickly from this "forced" alliance with some southron King.

If Manderly then pops Rickon out of the woodwork, well, I can see the Northmen pushing Stannis aside very quickly.

Either way, I find it difficult to see opportunities for him to burn Shirreen. Mellisandre on the other hand, I see as a prime candidate to do so.

[elder brother jonothor dar]

On Wednesday, June 21, 2017 at 4:11 AM, Ser Snowflake said:

Stannis Baratheon first of his name, after defeating the Boltons at the battle of Winterfell will turn his gaze north of the wall where he will defeat the Night's King in single combat before making the Great Other bend the knee.

 

Stannis is too craven to take on an old man who threw a metal glove in his face

[Coolbeard the Exile]

Stannis will definatly defeat the Boltons and capture Winterfell. After that he will probably start preparing the wall and recapturing Dragonstone so he can start mining dragon glass. After that he will take the Manderly fleet and try to take King's Landing or he will move down the neck idk.

[Free Northman Reborn]

33 minutes ago, Coolbeard the Exile said:

Stannis will definatly defeat the Boltons and capture Winterfell. After that he will probably start preparing the wall and recapturing Dragonstone so he can start mining dragon glass. After that he will take the Manderly fleet and try to take King's Landing or he will move down the neck idk.

Possible. But that scenario severely relegates the Starks to secondary players in the retaking of the North. Which seems kind of out of place, given the story arc up to now. If all of that happens as you outline, Stannis will rule the North until at least the end of Winds of Winter. Meaning any Stark restoration will be an afterthought in the midst of the War for the Dawn, rather than a fist pump moment of triumph for readers. With no time for a Stark Lord of Winterfell to marshall the Northern forces against the army of the undead. Stannis will have been the one doing all of that.

All that will be left for a Stark will be to step into the seat Stannis has already secured for him or her, and welcome Dany's dragons as their savior. So first saved by Stannis, then saved by Dany. A very unsatisfying storyline for the majority of readers who have been guided by the author to see the Starks as the primary protagonists in this tale.

For that and other reasons, I don't quite see it going down like that.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

45 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Possible. But that scenario severely relegates the Starks to secondary players in the retaking of the North. Which seems kind of out of place, given the story arc up to now. If all of that happens as you outline, Stannis will rule the North until at least the end of Winds of Winter. Meaning any Stark restoration will be an afterthought in the midst of the War for the Dawn, rather than a fist pump moment of triumph for readers. With no time for a Stark Lord of Winterfell to marshall the Northern forces against the army of the undead. Stannis will have been the one doing all of that.

All that will be left for a Stark will be to step into the seat Stannis has already secured for him or her, and welcome Dany's dragons as their savior. So first saved by Stannis, then saved by Dany. A very unsatisfying storyline for the majority of readers who have been guided by the author to see the Starks as the primary protagonists in this tale.

For that and other reasons, I don't quite see it going down like that.

Well i think he will install Rickon as Warden of the North

[The Sunland Lord]

On 6/21/2017 at 11:45 AM, shortguy457 said:

Man why does everyone think Stannis will come out on top and defeat Ramsay? Or even take on the Night King. He is so not the prince that was promised like Melisandre believes. First of all, he's a secondary character!! He has no real backstory, there's no emotion to the guy. He's completely stoic. He's not even introduced until the second book.

If George reveals that Stannis is the end all be all character of the series, that would be TERRIBLE. The guy killed his own brother and he's too much of a one-minded character. How can he overtake someone like Jon Snow, Daenerys, or Tyrion as the savior of the series when George has hardly developed him at all?

Renly didn't have a problem with killing Stannis. That kinslaying bullshit applies to him as much as it does for Stannis. 

And his fate, I think he'll defeat Boltons. They haven't won a single battle in their entire life. I doubt GRRM will now suddenly grant them military skills against Stannis, of all people. 

But Roose was the one losing battles on purpose to weaken Robb's cause. So he might do the same and run with his loyal host intact, and feed his bastard to Stannis. 

 

 

 

[The Sleeper]

I don't see how Stannis can win the battle. Even if he destroys the Freys and defeats Ramsay he is still stranded in the snow without any food. The possibility that I see the plot allowing for is some kind of ruse that would allow him to enter Winterfell.

And there is a possible intervention by the Old Gods, namely Bran and BR.

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

I don't see how Stannis can win the battle. Even if he destroys the Freys and defeats Ramsay he is still stranded in the snow without any food. The possibility that I see the plot allowing for is some kind of ruse that would allow him to enter Winterfell.

And there is a possible intervention by the Old Gods, namely Bran and BR.

without a doubt imo. 

[The Sleeper]

3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

without a doubt imo. 

I do think they sent the snowstorm to prevent Stannis from attacking Winterfell outright and killing himself, as well as isolating Roose & co inside to stew.

[Bernie Mac]

9 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

Renly didn't have a problem with killing Stannis. That kinslaying bullshit applies to him as much as it does for Stannis. 

Not really. Stannis attacked Renly's lands and forced a battle between the two by telling him he would destroy him if he did not submit to him. Stannis threw down the gauntlet, Stannis actively came looking for the fight as he was desperate for the support of the Lords loyal to Renly.

It applies far much more to Stannis than it does to Renly 

9 minutes ago, The Sunland Lord said:

And his fate, I think he'll defeat Boltons. They haven't won a single battle in their entire life. I doubt GRRM will now suddenly grant them military skills against Stannis, of all people. 

Did Ramsay not win against a larger army at the Battle of WInterfell? Did Ramsay not win back Moat Calin for the North? Did Roose not win back Harrenhal in the Riverlands?

 

[The Fattest Leech]

15 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

I don't see how Stannis can win the battle. Even if he destroys the Freys and defeats Ramsay he is still stranded in the snow without any food. The possibility that I see the plot allowing for is some kind of ruse that would allow him to enter Winterfell.

Well, there are also a lot of northern men that have come to join the battle in the north that are good fighters, but old, so they have come to fight to the end. That means a fewer mouths to feed. I do believe he gets in to Winterfell, by ruse most likely, maybe wearing the armor of the Freys? Or her gets in by sheer force or conquest. I don't think he will hold Winterfell as his own, but will honor giving it to a Stark (probably Rickon, who will need an elder). Also, lord Maderly brought the food, and a lot of it. I don't see Manderly surviving as well. 

15 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

And there is a possible intervention by the Old Gods, namely Bran and BR.

Yes. There are those details the reader was given that pertain to trees, certain Greyjoys, old godsy stuff, etc. I agree. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

My one nagging doubt is an offhand line by the voice of truth in this story. A thought by Jon, in Dance. Jon, whose strategic advice saved Stannis from disaster at the Dreadfort. The line goes as follows:

Even ruined, Winterfell itself would confer a considerable advantage on whoever held it. Robert Baratheon would have seen that at once and moved swiftly to secure the castle, with the forced marches and midnight rides for which he had been famous. Would his brother be as bold?

Not likely. Stannis was a deliberate commander, and his host was a half-digested stew of clansmen, southron knights, king's men and queen's men, salted with a few northern lords. He should move on Winterfell swiftly, or not at all, Jon thought. It was not his place to advise the king, but …

 

This to me signifies that Stannis was doomed the moment he did not follow the bolded part above.

 

And then there is another offhand thought by Jon, about the fate of Winterfell, which I cannot help but feel was a bit of foreshadowing:

 

He was not at all sure how he felt about what he had just read. Battles had been fought at Winterfell before, but never one without a Stark on one side or the other.

 

It seems like Martin wants us to feel unease at the thought of a non-Stark capturing Winterfell back from its enemies. He conveys the sense of "this is not how it should be". Even if Stannis wins, it will leave us with this feeling of something not being right about the whole business.

[kissdbyfire]

10 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Not really. Stannis attacked Renly's lands and forced a battle between the two by telling him he would destroy him if he did not submit to him. Stannis threw down the gauntlet, Stannis actively came looking for the fight as he was desperate for the support of the Lords loyal to Renly.

It applies far much more to Stannis than it does to Renly 

Did Ramsay not win against a larger army at the Battle of WInterfell? Did Ramsay not win back Moat Calin for the North? Did Roose not win back Harrenhal in the Riverlands?

 

Stannis moved on Renly b/c Renly betrayed him by crowning himself ahead of his elder living brother. 

When you talk about Ramsay winning against a larger army I assume you're referring to when he tricked Rodrik Cassel, right? Because that was, well, a trick. Won't work again even if the opportunity to try it presented itself, which I find unlikely. The same goes for taking MC from the ironborn. Roose taking Harrenhal also relied on tricks and treachery, after all the BM switching sides is what allowed him to do it. And the cherry on top is Arya and Jaqen helping him from within. 

[LordImp]

Right now I think Stannis dies in the North. I can see a scenario where Stannis suceeds in taking Winterfell but dies in the process . 

One of the Boltons can escape to Dreadforth . In that case Jon can lead a northern army in taking Dreadforth and ending the Bolton line once and for all. 

With Stannis dead and Jon killing the last Bolton it can pave the for Jon becoming KITN. 

[The Sleeper]

10 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

My one nagging doubt is an offhand line by the voice of truth in this story. A thought by Jon, in Dance. Jon, whose strategic advice saved Stannis from disaster at the Dreadfort. The line goes as follows:

Even ruined, Winterfell itself would confer a considerable advantage on whoever held it. Robert Baratheon would have seen that at once and moved swiftly to secure the castle, with the forced marches and midnight rides for which he had been famous. Would his brother be as bold?

Not likely. Stannis was a deliberate commander, and his host was a half-digested stew of clansmen, southron knights, king's men and queen's men, salted with a few northern lords. He should move on Winterfell swiftly, or not at all, Jon thought. It was not his place to advise the king, but …

 

 

It's common sense really. If he got there first it would have been a coup. Now he has to capture one of the strongest castles in Westeros.

 

16 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Well, there are also a lot of northern men that have come to join the battle in the north that are good fighters, but old, so they have come to fight to the end. That means a fewer mouths to feed. I do believe he gets in to Winterfell, by ruse most likely, maybe wearing the armor of the Freys? Or her gets in by sheer force or conquest. I don't think he will hold Winterfell as his own, but will honor giving it to a Stark (probably Rickon, who will need an elder). Also, lord Maderly brought the food, and a lot of it. I don't see Manderly surviving as well. 

Yes. There are those details the reader was given that pertain to trees, certain Greyjoys, old godsy stuff, etc. I agree. 

They are outnumbered, starving and even if they win they still have to take a fully garrisoned castle. Stannis doesn't have even a fraction of the force he would need to take Winterfell by force. 

In any case Winterfell is not his to dispose off. If Stannis manages to come out on top, it will because the northmen turn on Roose.

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 minutes ago, LordImp said:

Right now I think Stannis dies in the North. I can see a scenario where Stannis suceeds in taking Winterfell but dies in the process . 

One of the Boltons can escape to Dreadforth . In that case Jon can lead a northern army in taking Dreadforth and ending the Bolton line once and for all. 

With Stannis dead and Jon killing the last Bolton it can pave the for Jon becoming KITN. 

Time is an issue. I don't think there are pages to spare to cover a march on the Dreadfort. But I do think a modified version of the above is possible.

Stannis wins the Battle of Ice, but is somehow incapacitated in the process. So the Boltons have lost the 1500 Freys, and maybe a good part of Ramsay's men, but Ramsay retreats to Winterfell, weakened and without his bride, but alive.  Then Davos arrives at Eastwatch with Rickon and a few thousand Skagosi warriors. Jon is revived and takes the role of Rickon's regent. They join with the Manderlys, the Mountain Clansmen and the rest of the North and march on Winterfell, where Ramsay is huddling in increasing desperation.

Finally it is Jon who takes Winterfell back for Rickon. Not Stannis.