What will happen to Stannis in TWOW?

[Lost Melnibonean]

9 hours ago, Gendarrion said:

Wins battle against bolton, take winterfell somehow, joined by davos and 20k men hired by Massey, before marching south.

Shireen burned by melisandre without his knowledge to resurrect Jon.

[The Drunkard]

On 8/22/2017 at 10:39 PM, devilish said:

I think that the relationship between the Mountain Clan and Stannis is...complicated. The former doesn't see him as their Lord let alone king.  All they care about is saving the Ned's daughter and are therefore ready to work with Stannis to achieve that . Meanwhile Stannis is obsessed with a rigid heirarchy. If the Mountain clans see the Southern ladies as a burden then they will abandon them. If Stannis pisses them off then they will probably dig a big axe in his forehead. If Farya or Rickon or Sansa orders them to do that then they will do it without a moment hesitation.

The Manderlys are loyal to the Starks. However, the fact that they are Southerners allow them to see things differently. Unlike the Northerners the Manderlys know better. The Lannisters and the Tyrells are not ironborn/wildlings with a different hair colour. They are insanely powerful houses who can raise an army which is way bigger then what the North can master. Going South with Stannis would be suicide and Wyman has lost enough family to risk that again, especially for some Southern king no one really like. Which means that somewhere along the line the Manderlys will make sure that their family ends up on top (marrying the youngest of the Starks?) and Stannis will ends up screwed. 

I disagree completely. Stannis isn't going to order his men to march south in the immediate future. He's made it clear to Jon that he must save the realm from the Others before taking the throne and that to do otherwise would be putting the cart before the horse - that conclusion was essentially the culmination of his ASOS story (that, and pushing him towards utilitarianism over deontology if the situation is dire enough). His plans since arriving at the Wall have all centred on that goal of defeating the Others - binding the wildlings and northmen to him, repairing and garrisoning each castle along the Wall, lighting nightfires before every gate as some sort of magical protection, shipping in obsidian to forge weapons, and so on. 

If/when he defeats the Boltons and takes Winterfell he'll be in a position to enact these plans. He'll have secured his southern flank, gained thousands more men and have essentially unlimited funds courtesy of the Iron Bank. He won't suddenly forget the importance of the Others and go on a southern crusade, he'll return to the Wall (or what's left of it) and try to defeat the Others ("the foe I was born to fight").  

Additionally, regarding northern opinions of Stannis, characters in the story don't share this "well I'll help him for now but once we've won, fuck him". The anti-Bolton northmen were essentially impotent before he arrived. The mountain clans were too quarrelsome and divided to unite against Roose (or even Asha's weak, 200-something garrison at Deepwood Motte). The survivors of Rodrik's host had no one to rally around, nor did the common people ("fisherfolk, freeriders, hillmen, crofters from the deep of the wolfswood and villagers who fled their homes along the stony shore to escape the ironmen"), and even Manderly was unwilling to act until he had a rival Stark (which he requires Stannis' Hand for). 

His leadership is what has turned them into a fighting force capable of standing up to the Boltons. He saved the Wall and prevented a wildling invasion, he united the quarrelsome mountain clans, he drove the ironborn from Deepwood Motte, he rallied the survivors of Rodrik's host and the common people who lacked a protector, and he will, potentially, defeat the Freys and Boltons in some fairly spectacular victories, before focusing his attention on saving the realm from omnicidal invasion. They have no reason to turn on him and every reason to express their loyalty, which has thus far been the case of those following him. 

[kissdbyfire]

Agree 100%, @The Drunkard, great post.

[Sullen]

On 8/20/2017 at 1:20 AM, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

I don't think that he will burn Shireen , because she is his only heir .

What is his heir compared to the survival of Westeros?

[LiveFirstDieLater]

Stannis will marry Shireen to Rickon, thus securing the northern support before they all die

[Khal Al]

Stannis will be flayed and displayed

[Mr. Sven]

I remember reading a theory sometime back that Stannis wins the battle but fakes his death and then commits a series of false flag attacks. It would explain why Stannis specifically says to Massey to hire the sellswords anyway if he hears about his death and defeat and it would be one explanation for the pink letter too since it would make it seem like it was Jon doing it with a smaller force than Stannis had. I'm not sure I totally buy the theory but I do think at least parts of it are true and that Stannis wins the battle and then takes Winterfell through some sort of subterfuge.  I'm convinced that Mance (who I think actually killed Ramsey and wrote the pink letter using a glamour),Umber,and Stannis are all working together and have some sort of plan, Stannis certainly knows that his army won't hold together for a protracted siege.

[Gendarrion]

16 hours ago, Sullen said:

What is his heir compared to the survival of Westeros?

she's too far, he will not march back to Castle Black just to burn her daughter, he's harsh but not mad, 

 

Quote

"As you command," Ser Justin said.
"It may be that we shall lose this battle," the king said grimly. "In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless."
The knight hesitated. "Your Grace, if you are dead — "
" — you will avenge my death, and seat my daughter on the Iron Throne. Or die in the attempt."
Ser Justin put one hand on his sword hilt. "On my honor as a knight, you have my word."

 
 

[Sullen]

6 hours ago, Gendarrion said:

she's too far, he will not march back to Castle Black just to burn her daughter, he's harsh but not mad, 

He's not going to burn her against the Boltons though, imo.

He'll do it after losing his first big fight against the Others.

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 hours ago, Mr. Sven said:

I remember reading a theory sometime back that Stannis wins the battle but fakes his death and then commits a series of false flag attacks. It would explain why

Spoiler

Stannis specifically says to Massey to hire the sellswords anyway if he hears about his death and defeat

and it would be one explanation for the pink letter too since it would make it seem like it was Jon doing it with a smaller force than Stannis had. I'm not sure I totally buy the theory but I do think at least parts of it are true and that Stannis wins the battle and then takes Winterfell through some sort of subterfuge.  I'm convinced that Mance (who I think actually killed Ramsey and wrote the pink letter using a glamour),Umber,and Stannis are all working together and have some sort of plan, Stannis certainly knows that his army won't hold together for a protracted siege.

What Stannis says to Justin should be enclosed in spoiler tags since it is from Winds. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

7 hours ago, Gendarrion said:

she's too far, he will not march back to Castle Black just to burn her daughter, he's harsh but not mad, 

Dude, we are allowed to quote from Winds, but we are expected to include any information from winds in spoiler tags. 

[TheThreeEyedCow]

Stannis will definitely head to the wall if/when successful at WF. At least, I hope so. He's a very entertaining guy and part of me hopes the amount of time taken writing the book is perfecting Stannis' excellent dialogue! 

I don't imagine Manderly's promise means much as he's probably expecting to die. And I think that's how it will go for Stannis. The old who'll perish will swear for Stannis, the young, for a Stark. The Northeners will ultimately be using Stannis. But hopefully we have plenty of time before then, and another book with the Mannis   

[Maester Totoro]

I think he'll be the first big casualty against the Others, the first army to try to stop them and fail.

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Stannis will marry Shireen to Rickon, thus securing the northern support before they all die

I would love this! But find it unlikely... have you elaborated further on this elsewhere? If so, pls link it. 

[Gendarrion]

On 8/25/2017 at 10:18 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Dude, we are allowed to quote from Winds, but we are expected to include any information from winds in spoiler tags. 

i'm Sorry. just new here, i'm not clear on the rules.

[The Fattest Leech]

12 hours ago, Gendarrion said:

i'm Sorry. just new here, i'm not clear on the rules.

Welcome to the deep dark forest that is the ASOIAF forum

When you want to put something in the secret eye tab, just type it out, highlight it, and then hit the "eye" icon in the quote box. Or, you can hit the "eye" first, then type in it. Also, if needed, you can go back and edit an old post this way so as to not spoil anything for future thread readers.

Also, since you are new, and I would hate to see you make this mistake, there is no show talk in the book forums. Not even under the secret eye. There is a pinned thread about this topic on the main page of the general forum.

[Falcon2909]

Stannis takes Winterfell...only to die against the Others (Not sure why Shireen would be burnt since shes at Castle Black)

[thehandwipes]

I think Stannis has to win or else we will have no POV's in Winterfell to follow up on ADWD.  I imagine the Manderly's will help him pull off a Trojan Horse attack on Winterfell rather than draw out a war.  I imagine Stannis will struggle with the loyalty of the northern lords.  He may use Theon to take the Dreadfort, there seems to be some foreshadowing of that.  And he may betroth Rickon to Shireen if Davos found him, if they make it back to the Wall, if they flee the Wall with Selyse and party when the Night's Watch falls apart.

But I think the bulk of the Winterfell storyline will focus on th inner mysteries of Winterfell as seen through Theon and Bran while Stannis slowly goes mad.  We've seen some evidence that Stannis has already started looking into the flames for visions without Mel's supervision.  And it seems to be natural progression for his character.

I've suggested this Denethor comparison before but here some quotes from Tolkein regarding Denethor:

"...a masterful man, both wise and learned beyond the measure of those days, and strong willed, confident in his own powers, and dauntless. (...) He was proud, but this was by no means personal: he loved Gondor and its people, and deemed himself appointed by destiny to lead them in this desperate time."

"He [Denethor] must have guessed that the Ithil-stone [Sauron's palantír] was in evil hands, and risked contact with it, trusting his strength. His trust was not entirely unjustified. Sauron failed to dominate him and could only influence him by deceits.

Saruman fell under the domination of Sauron... [while] Denethor remained steadfast in his rejection of Sauron, but was made to believe that his defeat was inevitable, and so fell into despair. The reasons for this difference were no doubt that in the first place Denethor was a man of great strength of will and maintained the integrity of his personality until the final blow of the (apparently) mortal wound of his only surviving son."

I think Stannis will burn Shireen towards the end of TWOW after receiving visions in the flames.  He may come to believe it the only way to atone for past sins and be worthy of the LoL as the Others approach Winterfell.  Ultimately, he will be one of the major antagonists of TWOW before being overthrown by Jon.

As far as I know I'm the only one to suggest this and fully intend to gloat when its all true.

 

[Dragonsbone]

10 hours ago, thehandwipes said:

I think Stannis has to win or else we will have no POV's in Winterfell to follow up on ADWD.  

But Stannis is no POV. Or do you mean through Theon or Asha? Davos is certainly way to far to return as soon. I do not expect him to return to Winterfell in Winds, even if Stannis wins the battle against the Boltons, which I am not as sure as others that he will. Right now we don't have a POV in Winterfell either. I don't think that that is a problem. 

Back on topic:

I think that Stannis will loose the battle against the Boltons. It fits with his character arch. I believe that GRRM wants an aticlimatic story for him. Everyone expects him to win. But what I think GRRM tries to achieve with this character is to show us, among other things,  where blind trust in prophecies or religion lead. He will be a bit fat red herring. It helps also to lead the book to a dark and hopeless place. 

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, Dragonsbone said:

But Stannis is no POV. Or do you mean through Theon or Asha? Davos is certainly way to far to return as soon. I do not expect him to return to Winterfell in Winds, even if Stannis wins the battle against the Boltons, which I am not as sure as others that he will. Right now we don't have a POV in Winterfell either. I don't think that that is a problem. 

Back on topic:

I think that Stannis will loose the battle against the Boltons. It fits with his character arch. I believe that GRRM wants an aticlimatic story for him. Everyone expects him to win. But what I think GRRM tries to achieve with this character is to show us, among other things,  where blind trust in prophecies or religion lead. He will be a bit fat red herring. It helps also to lead the book to a dark and hopeless place. 

But Stannis doesn't have blind faith in prophecies or religion. At all. He knows Mel has powers, and he decides to use that but he's not a true believer.