What will happen to Stannis in TWOW?

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, Clegane'sPup said:

Therein lays or is that lies the problem. Stannis is usually portrayed in someones POV. If Stannis wins the battle of the crofters village most likely Asha will tell the story. If Stannis loses the battle at the crofter's village most likely Asha will tell the story.. According to the pink/bastard letter Ramsey is wanting his Reek back so that leaves Theon out. But then again, maybe Davos miraculously appears back at White Harbor and Manderly's men ferry him, Rickon, Shaggy Dog & Osha  up the White Knife.

Or maybe Davos, Rickon, Shaggy, Osha and a horde of wild Skagosi riding war unicorns land by Eastwatch and arrive in the nick of time.

 

[Joey Crows]

6 hours ago, Joso'sLeftOne said:

I don't really know why I love him so much. Could be his great one liners, the fact he smashed the wildlings when all hope for Jon seemed lost, that he's the only person who can now avenge the red wedding. Those are just my reasons anywho. 

 

Also I think that by the strict letter of the law he is the one true king of westeros so I've kind always felt a bit sorry for him that nobody recognises that. 

First bit, sure, I buy it. 

Second bit, not so much. If we're being real, there is no "one true king." Whoever takes the throne and holds it, is the king or queen. Assuming the letter of the law says "if the king dies with no trueborn heirs, his next eldest brother shall be declared king" and so on and so forth down the line of family until someone meets the requirements, then Robert or anyone not related to the Targs (yes he's technically related but it's far removed) would be an unlawful king.

The irony is that if you want to be 100% true to the law when it comes to succession as Mannis does, then he himself is excluded from the throne.

[Clegane'sPup]

13 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Or maybe Davos, Rickon, Shaggy, Osha and a horde of wild Skagosi riding war unicorns land by Eastwatch and arrive in the nick of time.

 

Har!

I have another scenario though. LC Snow recovers from his wounds or is resurrected. Two weeks later he and the wildlings travel a fortnight and with the help of Wun Wun who has recovered from his wounds they manage to break down one of WF’s  multiple gates and cross one of drawbridges. Then Jon rescues Mance who is in a cage & being kept warm by the skins of his washerwomen while the wildlings, Stannis, Umbers and mountain clans are putting Roose and Ramsey to the sword.

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, Joey Crows said:

First bit, sure, I buy it. 

Second bit, not so much. If we're being real, there is no "one true king." Whoever takes the throne and holds it, is the king or queen. Assuming the letter of the law says "if the king dies with no trueborn heirs, his next eldest brother shall be declared king" and so on and so forth down the line of family until someone meets the requirements, then Robert or anyone not related to the Targs (yes he's technically related but it's far removed) would be an unlawful king.

There are loads of posters here who disagree and who will argue until forever that no, the Targs are still the rightful dynasty. I will never understand the logic behind this, but there you go.

Just now, Joey Crows said:

The irony is that if you want to be 100% true to the law when it comes to succession as Mannis does, then he himself is excluded from the throne.

Well, Martin has said that succession is tricky, complicated, etc etc, same as irl. The Baratheons are the current ruling house, and so they should. And we know Cersei's kids are bastards, so.

 

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, Clegane'sPup said:

Har!

I have another scenario though. LC Snow recovers from his wounds or is resurrected. Two weeks later he and the wildlings travel a fortnight and with the help of Wun Wun who has recovered from his wounds they manage to break down one of WF’s  multiple gates and cross one of drawbridges. Then Jon rescues Mance who is in a cage & being kept warm by the skins of his washerwomen while the wildlings, Stannis, Umbers and mountain clans are putting Roose and Ramsey to the sword.

I can live w/ that and be quite happy!

 

[Blackwater Revenant]

19 minutes ago, Joey Crows said:

First bit, sure, I buy it. 

Second bit, not so much. If we're being real, there is no "one true king." Whoever takes the throne and holds it, is the king or queen. Assuming the letter of the law says "if the king dies with no trueborn heirs, his next eldest brother shall be declared king" and so on and so forth down the line of family until someone meets the requirements, then Robert or anyone not related to the Targs (yes he's technically related but it's far removed) would be an unlawful king.

The irony is that if you want to be 100% true to the law when it comes to succession as Mannis does, then he himself is excluded from the throne.

Only Robert won the throne by rights of conquest - the same manner in which the Targaryns won the throne - and was recognized and coronated as the lawful King. Unless, and until another were to take the throne by these means, and was recognized and coronated as the King, Stannis was the rightful heir, by the letter of the law.

[thehandwipes]

1 hour ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Therein lays or is that lies the problem. Stannis is usually portrayed in someones POV. If Stannis wins the battle of the crofters village most likely Asha will tell the story. If Stannis loses the battle at the crofter's village most likely Asha will tell the story.. According to the pink/bastard letter Ramsey is wanting his Reek back so that leaves Theon out. But then again, maybe Davos miraculously appears back at White Harbor and Manderly's men ferry him, Rickon, Shaggy Dog & Osha  up the White Knife.

I think Asha may be headed to the Wall with Jeyne Poole and Justin Massey.  I know Stannis forbade it, but still.  If TWOW goes the way I think it might, Asha may be needed to POV the Wall, and what's the point of the extra time we spent with Massey in Asha's last chapter if he's simply going to disappear from the narrative.

Theon's story is intimately linked with both Winterfell and Bran, he remains the best person to POV the inner mysteries of Winterfell.  It would be disappointing if he wasn't there.  

Davos's story cuts out halfway through ADWD, just like Bran's, which makes me think he's in the middle of something very important.  Hardhome, hopefully.  Something George didn't want us to see just yet.  So I can't imagine him arriving at Winterfell any earlier than halfway, or why he would take it on himself to solve WF something he knows nothing about.

[Dragonsbone]

1 hour ago, Blackwater Revenant said:

Only Robert won the throne by rights of conquest - the same manner in which the Targaryns won the throne - and was recognized and coronated as the lawful King. Unless, and until another were to take the throne by these means, and was recognized and coronated as the King, Stannis was the rightful heir, by the letter of the law.

So "rightful" means until someone takes it by force? Forgive me, but this is a very weak definition of "rightful". There is no need to adress to the law if someone forces you to do something. If you can be king and forge a dynasty just by slaying the former dynasty, you are by no means King by a right, but by pure violence, force and most importantly, because you say and want it so. Thus, anyone can be the rightful King, therefore the word "rightful" looses his meaning completely. 

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, Dragonsbone said:

So "rightful" means until someone takes it by force? Forgive me, but this is a very weak definition of "rightful". There is no need to adress to the law if someone forces you to do something. If you can be king and forge a dynasty just by slaying the former dynasty, you are by no means King by a right, but by pure violence, force and most importantly, because you say and want it so. Thus, anyone can be the rightful King, therefore the word "rightful" looses his meaning completely. 

But that's how it is, isn't it?

Or else, in our world, the ruling families would still be the same as they were when the first kings ever came to power. 

[Dragonsbone]

4 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

But that's how it is, isn't it?

Or else, in our world, the ruling families would still be the same as they were when the first kings ever came to power. 

Exactly. This is why a "rightful" King is kind of an oxymoron. There can not be a "rightful" King, since every dynasty becomes a dynasty by breaking a Law.

[thehandwipes]

39 minutes ago, Dragonsbone said:

Exactly. This is why a "rightful" King is kind of an oxymoron. There can not be a "rightful" King, since every dynasty becomes a dynasty by breaking a Law.

But there are still rules of succession and inheritance within the dynastic system.  For those that support the Baratheon claim, Stannis is the rightful King.  Those that supported Renly were simply opportunists.  He made the argument that the throne was his by virtue of being the better man, though that is a dubious claim, and not a legal argument.  

For those that see the Targs claim legit regardless of the crimes committed by the Mad King then Dany is Queen (or Aegon).  

Of course the reality is most will side with whoever they believe will win, its not easy to stake your life and your family's future on someone else's legitimate claim, but that's realpolitik, not a legal argument.

So I wouldn't say "rightful" is meaningless, but it is malleable and in the eye of the beholder.

 

 

 

[Blackwater Revenant]

4 hours ago, Dragonsbone said:

So "rightful" means until someone takes it by force? Forgive me, but this is a very weak definition of "rightful". There is no need to adress to the law if someone forces you to do something. If you can be king and forge a dynasty just by slaying the former dynasty, you are by no means King by a right, but by pure violence, force and most importantly, because you say and want it so. Thus, anyone can be the rightful King, therefore the word "rightful" looses his meaning completely. 

Well, I'd agree that "rightful" is a meaningless term. I don't believe anyone has the right to rule over anyone. 

But as Kissdbyfire said, that is the way it is. And the fact is, he [Robert] was accepted and recognized as the King. Now if the high Lords and the Faith did not accept his rule and swear fealty to him, that would be another thing, but he was accepted and coronated as the legal King.

And as I mentioned, that is the exact same way that the Targaryens came to be the "rightful" rulers, so your assertion that "anyone not related to the Targs would be an unlawful king." would be invalid as well, no?

[The Fattest Leech]

5 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Har!

I have another scenario though. LC Snow recovers from his wounds or is resurrected. Two weeks later he and the wildlings travel a fortnight and with the help of Wun Wun who has recovered from his wounds they manage to break down one of WF’s  multiple gates and cross one of drawbridges. Then Jon rescues Mance who is in a cage & being kept warm by the skins of his washerwomen while the wildlings, Stannis, Umbers and mountain clans are putting Roose and Ramsey to the sword.

Oh gawds. Make it so

[The Bear Who Knocks]

The only Ramsay deaths that will satisfy me are:

1) Stannis chaining him up naked and presenting him before all the north to see and announcing all his crimes and sins sentencing him to die by fire

2) Theon and the dogs are his end

[The Drunkard]

9 hours ago, thehandwipes said:

I think Asha may be headed to the Wall with Jeyne Poole and Justin Massey.  I know Stannis forbade it, but still.  If TWOW goes the way I think it might, Asha may be needed to POV the Wall, and what's the point of the extra time we spent with Massey in Asha's last chapter if he's simply going to disappear from the narrative.

Theon's story is intimately linked with both Winterfell and Bran, he remains the best person to POV the inner mysteries of Winterfell.  It would be disappointing if he wasn't there.  

Davos's story cuts out halfway through ADWD, just like Bran's, which makes me think he's in the middle of something very important.  Hardhome, hopefully.  Something George didn't want us to see just yet.  So I can't imagine him arriving at Winterfell any earlier than halfway, or why he would take it on himself to solve WF something he knows nothing about.

If this is still accurate, Asha is definitely present for at least the opening engagement between Stannis and the Freys. My guess is that she'll give a frontline perspective of the battle given she and her ironborn are apparently going to fight for Stannis according to the sample chapter, while Theon will be held back with Stannis and give an entire-battlefield perspective. 

With regards to Massey, I think he'll be more significant for Arya's sake. He's returning to the Wall with Jeyne with orders to eventually reach Braavos. When he reaches Castle Black it will probably be fairly unsafe, given the mutiny and the supposed death of Stannis, so he'd want to keep Jeyne close, and then she'd end up in Braavos, which would stoke Arya's interest in what's going on in the North. It'd also lead him into conflict with Harys Swyft, whom the Mercy chapter shows is in Braavos to try and regain the Iron Bank's loyalty.

 

[Dragonsbone]

7 hours ago, Blackwater Revenant said:

And as I mentioned, that is the exact same way that the Targaryens came to be the "rightful" rulers, so your assertion that "anyone not related to the Targs would be an unlawful king." would be invalid as well, no?

Oh no, maybe I did not make my point clear: the Targaryen are just as "rightful" as any other family in Westeros. If everyone is, no one is. Rightful does not hold up if you define rightful with Conquest, force and number of allies and acceptance. I was criticizing the use of the word rightful. 

[Nihlus]

I definitely think Stannis will beat the Boltons and Freys. The plot can't really unfold properly any other way, and I'm very convinced by cantuse's elaborate Night Lamps theory (which extends far beyond the battle at crofter's village). Likely the whole reason the Freys are even in the North at all from a meta perspective is so Stannis can have a victory without needing to kill a bunch of Northmen, since they'll be needed. I expect most of Roose's own soldiers will simply be captured and/or switch sides after House Bolton goes extinct.

After that? My working theory is that Stannis's death in TWOW or ADOS will be similar to Richard III's demise at the Battle of Bosworth Field during the War of the Roses, because I like historical parallels and Stannis + fAegon are triggering way too many alarms to NOT be very similar to their historical counterparts. Stannis will be Richard (North/Riverlands men + possible sellswords = royal forces), Aegon will be Henry (Welsh = Dornish, mercenaries and exiles = Golden Company), and Littlefinger as de facto Regent of the Vale will be Thomas Stanley.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, Nihlus said:

I definitely think Stannis will beat the Boltons and Freys. The plot can't really unfold properly any other way, and I'm very convinced by cantuse's elaborate Night Lamps theory (which extends far beyond the battle at crofter's village). Likely the whole reason the Freys are even in the North at all from a meta perspective is so Stannis can have a victory without needing to kill a bunch of Northmen, since they'll be needed. I expect most of Roose's own soldiers will simply be captured and/or switch sides after House Bolton goes extinct.

After that? My working theory is that Stannis's death in TWOW or ADOS will be similar to Richard III's demise at the Battle of Bosworth Field during the War of the Roses, because I like historical parallels and Stannis + fAegon are triggering way too many alarms to NOT be very similar to their historical counterparts. Stannis will be Richard (North/Riverlands men + possible sellswords = royal forces), Aegon will be Henry (Welsh = Dornish, mercenaries and exiles = Golden Company), and Littlefinger as de facto Regent of the Vale will be Thomas Stanley.

 

I can see what you mean. There are several parallels between Stannis and Richard III--both the historical figure and the antihero of Shakespeare's play. And while this might suggest that he will be involved in the end game of the Dance of the Dragons, I am not so sure the parallels are strong enough to suggest that Stannis's end will mirror the Battle of Bosworth Field. On the other hand, I could see the Rivermen and Manderly playing roles similar to Thomas Stanley and Henry Percy, especially if there are dragons involved. And Stannis is certainly capable of a desperate charge into the enemy's center. 

[Nihlus]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I can see what you mean. There are several parallels between Stannis and Richard III--both the historical figure and the antihero of Shakespeare's play. And while this might suggest that he will be involved in the end game of the Dance of the Dragons, I am not so sure the parallels are strong enough to suggest that Stannis's end will mirror the Battle of Bosworth Field. On the other hand, I could see the Rivermen and Manderly playing roles similar to Thomas Stanley and Henry Percy, especially if there are dragons involved. And Stannis is certainly capable of a desperate charge into the enemy's center. 

What pushed me over the edge on this theory was fAegon's resemblance to Henry Tudor, which seems entirely too much for him not to run into the obvious Richard III parallel. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

16 minutes ago, Nihlus said:

What pushed me over the edge on this theory was fAegon's resemblance to Henry Tudor, which seems entirely too much for him not to run into the obvious Richard III parallel. 

That too. But Henry was the Lancaster, and House Lancaster is the inspiration for House Lannister. Aegon might not be a Targaryen, but he sure isn't a Lannister. I think the whole War of the Five Kings and the Second Dance of the Dragons is inspired by a mash-up of the War of Roses. --And other historical dynastic events.