Does Doran actually plan on restoring the Targaryens?

[Agent 326]

Well let's start with the obvious. We really shouldn't make too much assumtions when it comes to Doran other than he is trying to take out the Lannisters and isn't very fond of the Baratheons or Tyrells either, probably isn't the biggest fan of Lyn Corbray, and has a few connections in Essos.

Reasons to believe he isn't a Targaryen loyalist:

What does he owe the Targaryens? Aerys dispossessed Elia's children, kept them in King's Landing and we all know how that turned out. Aerys also insulted Elia quite a bit. Rhaegar started a war by kidnapping Lyanna Stark when he was already married to Elia and had two kids by her.

Also let's look at some blood feuds now. The Valyrians ruined the lives of the Rhoynar. And it is worth noting Doran has visited the Sorrows. The Targaryens also waged war against Dorne for nearly two centuries. 

Oh and Targaryens are know for insanity. Why bring back a bunch of fire obsessed lunatics and give them power. Oh and they have medieval nukes (dragons).

And some other things:

The mission Arianne was sent on is filled with a few bastards, represents only a few of the great houses of Dorne and has several people on board that think that Aegon and JonCon are fakes. Hmm, that is called undermining something.

The marriage pact that Quentyn has, has no power. And it sucks for Viserys. The pact is signed by Ser Willem Darry and Oberyn Martell, with the Sealord of Bravos as witness. Okay but Ser Willem Darry is just the former master at arms in the Red Keep. And Oberyn is the brother of the Prince of Dorne. Neither one can make a marriage pact. As to why it sucks for Viserys, well Dorne has been lying about its military strength for years now. They claim to have 50,000 men but in truth their number is a lot smaller, somewhere around half that number. If Viserys gets his army then he is stuck with Dorne, and if he wants something else like the Tyrells because they have the biggest army, two biggest fleets (probably) and have the most food, and second most wealth. Whereas Dorne is a dying land with their military strength is exaggerated and around twice the size of their real strength. Meanwhile if Viserys dies, well that sucks for him because he is dead. And this deal is a win-win for Doran. If Viserys does get his army, Doran's daughter is a queen, while if Viserys dies nothing happened. Oh and we have no reason to believe it is legitimate even. Afterall Dany doesn't know what to look for when checking seals and signatures on documents. And it was signed by two dead men with no power to make the deal, involving another dead man. 

Also waiting for Viserys to get an army is quite literally the worst plan ever. Especially since the only army he would likely ever get would be from the Tyrells, via marrying Margery.

And if you still aren't convinced I have saved the best for last.

The flaws of the Quentyn quest:

Doran has numerous connections within the Free Cities. Why where none afforded to Quentyn? Secrecy? Really?

Quentyn isn't given that book that was given to Arianne about dragons. Some info on dragons would've made him a much better option, especially since Dany is really looking for info on dragons and Quentyn is a bookish boy.

Quentyn's pact (yes the same one mentioned above) that he keeps in his boot says nothing about Quentyn and Dany even if it was legitimate.

Quentyn says Dorne has 50,000 men, when it is somewhere around half that.

Why not provide Quentyn with some nice clothes to make him look more attractive. Quentyn isn't very attractive but with the right clothes he could've been able to appeal to Dany.

Doran trusts the mission to the Yronwoods who are the most ambitious house in Dorne, bitter rivals with house Martell, and Oberyn likely used a poisoned spear in the duel with the current lord of Yronwood's grandfather, and the Yronwoods control over half the military strength in Dorne, and they want Quentyn to fail, and Quentyn is not the eldest child but is the eldest son and the Yronwoods are the biggest advocates for patrelinal succession in Dorne. And yes the Yronwoods want Quenty to fail but not to die. They want Quentyn to fail safely so he can come back and marry Gwen Yronwood (I'm not going to talk about any Quentyn is still alive theories as that is something for a different thread) and they likely are looking to get Quentyn to be the heir to Dorne. Need more proof. Quentyn and his crew of 4 knights and a maester could've gotten to Slaver's Bay long before the deal of 90 days of peace and I will marry you deal came about. Instead though one of them who Quentyn (I don't remember which) let be in charge for the time of said he didn't trust the captain. Then he changes his story later as to why he turned down the ship. Then of course they join the Windblown. Which surprise! Turns out to be a lot slower. Then of course they could've gotten their a little earlier than the day before that Dany married Hizdahr but of course they didn't do that turning Quentyn's long shot, into an impossible.

But what do you think?  Do you still believe Doran is a Targaryen loyalist? Or have I swayed you otherwise?

[Lucius Lovejoy]

I think most of Doran's plots make no sense, and (I know this is sacriledge) that GRRM was just super bored and didn't really know what he wanted to do with it.  You lay out a great case, but I think its more about how GRRM wrote a character with inconsistent purpose, inconsistent motivations, and who makes inconsistent decisions.  It takes too much of a stretch of the imagination to believe Doran has some master plan that he has been playing the game well in his own way this whole time. 

[Kaibaman]

Obviously he wants power. Its no different than the Tyrells making Margaery marry that psycho Joffrey or Tywin trying to get Cersei married off to Rhaegar. Even if the Targaryens turn out mad again, a marriage between Dany and Quentyn or Aegon and Arianna would greatly propel House Martell into having influence over the rest of the realm.

[Agent 326]

12 minutes ago, Kaibaman said:

Obviously he wants power. Its no different than the Tyrells making Margaery marry that psycho Joffrey or Tywin trying to get Cersei married off to Rhaegar. Even if the Targaryens turn out mad again, a marriage between Dany and Quentyn or Aegon and Arianna would greatly propel House Martell into having influence over the rest of the realm.

That's not what I was getting at. No duh his plan involves him getting power. This is about who Doran will actually support.

[Lion of the West]

I don't doubt that Doran wants to bring the Targaryens, back but I doubt that he will succeed with it.

[Tyg Doggett]

Doran may support the Targs, but if he do so, it's not because he likes them, it's just because he wants revenge.

About Quentyn, the original plan, I think, was to wait in Volantis until Dany arrival. And even when in Mereen, the logical thing to her to do was to marry Quentyn. He isn't handsome, but he brings na army (not so big as he says, but okay), a kingdom to support her and a base in Westeros where she could start the invasion. Stay in Mereen was terriblly stupid (though not so stupid as "I will steal a dragon"). Dany should had married Hizdar and allow the Yunkai people to have their slaves. Then, when they had departed, she could kill Hizdar, the Green Grace, Reznak and all the others, let the city on flames, marry Quentyn and leave. So the dornish plan was more or less good, they just didn´t expected Dany to refuse.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

We'll see when he finds out Dany's dragon roasted Quentyn alive resulting in a very painful death. Sure it was not her fault but by the time the information gets back to Doran the truth could turn and twist into rumors that Dany herself ordered the dragon to do it.

Most of the people from RR who have wronged Doran and his family are dead. If something goes wrong for Arianne when she meets (f)Aegon and company while they are battling the Tyrells/Lannisters that could mean he'll possibly hold the last two Targaryens responsible for his children's deaths.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

@Agent 326

 

You could have saved yourself some time typing that up by just posting this link : 

But I am amused by your relatively short summary of approx. 5 hours worth of PJ talking about Dorne.  

Yes, OP. I am convinced, and I have been for a while.  

 

10 hours ago, Lucius Lovejoy said:

I think most of Doran's plots make no sense, and (I know this is sacriledge) that GRRM was just super bored and didn't really know what he wanted to do with it.  You lay out a great case, but I think its more about how GRRM wrote a character with inconsistent purpose, inconsistent motivations, and who makes inconsistent decisions.  It takes too much of a stretch of the imagination to believe Doran has some master plan that he has been playing the game well in his own way this whole time. 

You think it is more likely that GRRM - an author who has, in the past, written about conspiratorial puppet master type characters - rather than write about yet another puppet master type character, wrote a character who acts completely inconsistent and nonsensical because he was "just super bored and didn't really know what he wanted to do with it" ?????????????????????????????????????????????????

I don't even know how to respond to that... I disagree wholeheartedly to say the least  

 

6 hours ago, Kaibaman said:

Obviously he wants power. Its no different than the Tyrells making Margaery marry that psycho Joffrey or Tywin trying to get Cersei married off to Rhaegar. Even if the Targaryens turn out mad again, a marriage between Dany and Quentyn or Aegon and Arianna would greatly propel House Martell into having influence over the rest of the realm.

Only if they win. And as GRRM has explicitly told us, "Doran plays to win." I don't think Doran was worried about the much over-hyped Targaryen madness, but marrying your child to the new monarch isn't really winning. That's only coming in 2nd place. It seems more likely that Doran wants to let the people with dragons kill each other and keep loyal Dornishmen out of the carnage (and let House Yronwood march to their doom fighting against Dany mounted on Drogon).

 

5 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

I don't doubt that Doran wants to bring the Targaryens, back but I doubt that he will succeed with it.

You should most definitely doubt it. We don't have much evidence other than Doran's words, and Doran is a big fat liar.  

 

2 hours ago, Tygett Blackwood said:

Doran may support the Targs, but if he do so, it's not because he likes them, it's just because he wants revenge.

About Quentyn, the original plan, I think, was to wait in Volantis until Dany arrival. And even when in Mereen, the logical thing to her to do was to marry Quentyn. He isn't handsome, but he brings na army (not so big as he says, but okay), a kingdom to support her and a base in Westeros where she could start the invasion. Stay in Mereen was terriblly stupid (though not so stupid as "I will steal a dragon"). Dany should had married Hizdar and allow the Yunkai people to have their slaves. Then, when they had departed, she could kill Hizdar, the Green Grace, Reznak and all the others, let the city on flames, marry Quentyn and leave. So the dornish plan was more or less good, they just didn´t expected Dany to refuse.

No. I don't think the OP quite articulated all the important points originally laid out in the PJ (aka @Skinchanging Sweetrobin) video about this, but the Quentyn quest was utter nonsense. Doran would have to be an absolute moron to expect it to succeed, mainly because Quentyn was being protected by Yronwoods, who wanted Quentyn to marry Gwyneth Yronwood, so they had a direct incentive to sabotage his marriage to Dany. And is Doran's plan really just to let Dany conquer Westeros with her dragons and marry his son to her? That doesn't sound like a man who is playing to win. And really, why shouldn't Doran expect Dany to refuse? Especially with Quentyn's horrendous timing.

 

1 hour ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

We'll see when he finds out Dany's dragon roasted Quentyn alive resulting in a very painful death. Sure it was not her fault but by the time the information gets back to Doran the truth could turn and twist into rumors that Dany herself ordered the dragon to do it.

Most of the people from RR who have wronged Doran and his family are dead. If something goes wrong for Arianne when she meets (f)Aegon and company while they are battling the Tyrells/Lannisters that could mean he'll possibly hold the last two Targaryens responsible for his children's deaths.

Quentyn is alive. The brass handle in his whip was not melting, therefore the leather of the whip was not on fire. Rather, the oil in the whip caught on fire, probably from the extra hot breath (but not actual fire) of the dragon. And Quentyn saw his arm covered in burning oil, on fire. He is probably badly burned but otherwise fine and totally alive.  

[Cas Stark]

Doran is a fool.  It doesn't matter what he wants or intends.  He is not able to get anything concrete accomplished.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

8 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Doran is a fool.  It doesn't matter what he wants or intends.  He is not able to get anything concrete accomplished.

Ahem: "Doran plays to win"

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Asshai.com_Forum_Chat

Don't forget, he is working with Marwyn and Qyburn. Doran is accomplishing crazy next level shit, like setting up Cersei for a spectacular downfall.

[HaeSuse]

I'm with @40 Thousand Skeletons. Doran is not written to be foolish or stupid. Maybe some of his bannermen and relatives believe him to be, but the Dornish have no patience for plotting and scheming. Doran does. No matter what his plots and schemes are, if they aren't open war, or assassinations and murders, his people will think him weak and soft. That does not make him weak and soft, though.

I don't believe his plots and schemes will play out for him in the end, but I do think he will surprise us all with some cunning and deft maneuvers that are yet to be plainly spelled out. 

[Cas Stark]

18 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Ahem: "Doran plays to win"

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Asshai.com_Forum_Chat

Don't forget, he is working with Marwyn and Qyburn. Doran is accomplishing crazy next level shit, like setting up Cersei for a spectacular downfall.

He's already lost.  His son is dead.  Vicersys is dead.  His real enemy Tywin Lannister is dead and he had no hand in it.  His brother died 'killing' the Mountain.  The record does not support that he is a good schemer.  Cersei has set herself up for her fall with no help from Doran.  

[devilish]

He's certainly busy eliminating all the Martells. His brother died while killing a random knight. His son died trying to steal a dragon and his daughter will probably be caught in enemy fire at the Stormlands. 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

6 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

He's already lost.  His son is dead.  Vicersys is dead.  His real enemy Tywin Lannister is dead and he had no hand in it.  His brother died 'killing' the Mountain.  The record does not support that he is a good schemer.  Cersei has set herself up for her fall with no help from Doran.  

His son is alive. He never gave a shit about Viserys. Oberyn probably poisoned Tywin and, as crackpot as it sounds, sacrificed himself in his fight against the Mountain. And then their crony Qyburn turned the Mountain into a zombie with help from Oberyn's poison. Someone, probably Sarella, has been sending Lancel visions posing as the Seven, and Cersei likely would have been taken prisoner for her crimes due to Lancel's confession if she hadn't been stupid enough to get caught on her own. And now she is going to use a zombie in a trial by combat, which will reveal her to be a liar.

Quote

"No one saw the Mountain die, and no one saw his head removed. That troubles me, I confess, but what could the bitch queen hope to accomplish by deceiving us? If Gregor Clegane is alive, soon or late the truth will out. The man was eight feet tall, there is not another like him in all of Westeros. If any such appears again, Cersei Lannister will be exposed as a liar before all the Seven Kingdoms. She would be an utter fool to risk that. What could she hope to gain?"

Doran is also likely responsible for the High Sparrow taking power in the first place by having Sarella send visions to people and having the Brave Companions (Oberyn's sellsword company) sack as many septs as they possibly can, fomenting a grassroots religious backlash.

I would say he is a fantastic schemer, on par with LF, Varys, and Bloodraven.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

32 minutes ago, HaeSuse said:

I'm with @40 Thousand Skeletons. Doran is not written to be foolish or stupid. Maybe some of his bannermen and relatives believe him to be, but the Dornish have no patience for plotting and scheming. Doran does. No matter what his plots and schemes are, if they aren't open war, or assassinations and murders, his people will think him weak and soft. That does not make him weak and soft, though.

I don't believe his plots and schemes will play out for him in the end, but I do think he will surprise us all with some cunning and deft maneuvers that are yet to be plainly spelled out. 

 

Specifically, I think the Quentyn mission will backfire. Quentyn was supposed to fail safely and come home safe with the Yronwoods. Instead, he took it upon himself to capture a dragon. It may be that Quentyn will manage to steal Rhaegal or Viserion and give the dragon to Aegon, who theoretically actually has the genes to legit bond with a dragon and properly control it, unlike Quentyn who just took advantage of the fact that the dragon got to enjoy some tasty soldiers, similar to Nettles feeding sheep to Sheepstealer. And then Quentyn will become a full supporter of Aegon, putting him in direct opposition to his sister.

[Vaedys Targaryen]

I see a lot of people have been watching Preston Jacobs' "Deeper Dorne" videos. While I admit that he makes a lot of points that make me think are a little good, most of the points are just... No...

I don't Doran is as clever as everyone makes him out to be. He sent his son out on a dangerous mission where he could absolutely not just fail, but also die, which he did. Now he sends his daughter out to a young claimant to the Iron Throne who may or may not be his nephew and puts her in position where she could be in danger. For someone who is seemingly incredibly sentimental, he seems to have no problem throwing his children in harms way.

 

As for why Doran would support the Targaryens, he has no real reason to, unless it is revealed that Aegon truly is Elia's son. Aegon will need support from pretty much anyone he can get and logically his own uncle would be one of the first people he would go to. Aegon truly being Elia's son and might even marry Arianne would be great for house Martell and Dorne. So if you look at it from that perspective, why wouldn't Doran support Aegon (after it was proven that he was Elia's)

[Ralphis Baratheon]

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Quentyn is alive. The brass handle in his whip was not melting, therefore the leather of the whip was not on fire. Rather, the oil in the whip caught on fire, probably from the extra hot breath (but not actual fire) of the dragon. And Quentyn saw his arm covered in burning oil, on fire. He is probably badly burned but otherwise fine and totally alive.  

Who was the man Missandei was taking care of that died then?

[HaeSuse]

17 minutes ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Who was the man Missandei was taking care of that died then?

I believe, in this theory, it was the Tattered Prince.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

9 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Who was the man Missandei was taking care of that died then?

Some random unrecognizable member of the Windblown, probably the Tattered Prince himself. We certainly have no proof it was Quentyn, only the ultra shady and vague explanation of events given by Drink and Arch.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

10 hours ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

I see a lot of people have been watching Preston Jacobs' "Deeper Dorne" videos. While I admit that he makes a lot of points that make me think are a little good, most of the points are just... No...

I don't Doran is as clever as everyone makes him out to be. He sent his son out on a dangerous mission where he could absolutely not just fail, but also die, which he did. Now he sends his daughter out to a young claimant to the Iron Throne who may or may not be his nephew and puts her in position where she could be in danger. For someone who is seemingly incredibly sentimental, he seems to have no problem throwing his children in harms way.

 

As for why Doran would support the Targaryens, he has no real reason to, unless it is revealed that Aegon truly is Elia's son. Aegon will need support from pretty much anyone he can get and logically his own uncle would be one of the first people he would go to. Aegon truly being Elia's son and might even marry Arianne would be great for house Martell and Dorne. So if you look at it from that perspective, why wouldn't Doran support Aegon (after it was proven that he was Elia's)

Lol I think you need to take 5 hours and watch all 20 PJ videos on Dorne. Most of his points on Dorne are spot on, which I don't think is true of all his theories at all. 

Even if Aegon is "real" that still isn't a great reason for Doran to back him or marry his daughter to him. Doran plays to win, and Aegon is in great danger of being in a war against Dany and her dragons.

And he sent his son, who is totally alive BTW, on a mission guarded by people who have a huge incentive to protect him and get him home safely, so Quentyn can marry Gwyneth Yronwood. I wouldn't be surprised if Doran himself staged the pirate attack that killed Kedry.