How will Stannis survive the Battle in the Snow?

[lAPPYc]

Hi. This is my first post on this forum. I am a new member, signed up only to ask this question in fact.

So, I've searched this site before for this question. But they all seem to ignore one thing or another in the answers. Someone will not explain the bastard letter, someone will say that Stannis faked his death, but why??? Some people think it was Stannis that wrote the bastard letter, but then again, why, with the possibility of scaring his wife into taking their heir across the narrow sea to save her being hunted by Ramsay's dogs? A lot of people think that he is going to die, but I don't think that it will happen. They say that Stannis loses in the series because he always does the right thing, but that is not true for ASoIaF. ASoIaF has a habit of giving you what you have sown. Ned Stark, Robb Stark, Jaime Lannister, all got the appropriate justice for their actions. Stannis hasn't broken his honor yet(Nor do I think he will). People give a rationale for his losing because he alienates allies by burning people, but that is just a death sentence, deal with it. The allies that leave him because of that will die, not Stannis. Others say that Stannis has to win and survive because he has yet to face Dany etc... but don't provide the how.

In this question, I only want to focus on the Battle in the Snow, and the Bastard Letter and who sent it and why. Remember, in the TWoW sample chapter, we know that the maester sent the ravens to Winterfell, meaning that Ramsay knows about the lakes and a possible plan of Stannis driving the Winterfell soldiers into the lakes is foiled. But, at the end of the same chapter, when Theon lists all the cons of the battleground, Stannis simply replies "yet", and the ravens get excited, this means there exists some other plan. If so, what is it. And if it was a success, why the bastard letter?

[Free Northman Reborn]

In the aftermath of the blizzard, the location of the lake will not be apparent, as the entire area will be snow covered.

So Stannis will know that his forces are located on the island, but the approaching Freys will not. They will think that it is just open, snow covered ground between them. Their mounted forces will then fall through the ice and drown. Their 1000 or so footsoldiers will be slaughtered by Stannis's superior force.

At a later point Ramsay's forces will arrive. But who knows what they will find. Clearly Ramsay believes the battle was won, although he acknowledges heavy losses on both sides. So that is probably a reference to the Freys being lost. Maybe the Manderlys arrive before Ramsay, and partner with Stannis to create a ruse that Stannis was defeated prior to Ramsay's arrival. This then allows Stannis to creep up on Winterfell undetected, as he is believed dead at that point.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

Welcome to the forum! FYI, you should edit your post to remove all mention of the show, as is the new policy since the show has overtaken the books. The mods will definitely take down the thread or move it if you don't.   

Well, the short version is that the map sent to Winterfell with Stannis' location was purposeful counter-intelligence. Stannis probably knew early on that the Bolton maester was working against him as a spy, and knowingly allowed him to send that map. Additionally, Stannis didn't arrive at this spot by chance. It was likely his plan all along. He knew he couldn't successfully besiege Winterfell, so he came up with an amazing plan. The "wrong way rangers" Horpe and Massey were probably sent south to form alliances and gather tactical information about the lands around Winterfell, and that is how he knew about the village ahead of time. The (mainly Frey) forces who are about to fight Stannis may know about the lakes and the beacon tower, but they don't know that Stannis has drilled a million holes in the ice, making it extra perilous to, say, charge a bunch of heavy cavalry over. The holes make all the difference.

And then Stannis may extinguish the beacon, march out to the island in the middle of the lake with the weirwood, and execute Arnolf Karstark (pretending he is Theon in another execution identity swap like he did with Mance) with Lightbringer, which will make the sword glow super bright. Ideally, the leader of the Frey cavalry will think that Stannis is the beacon and conclude based on his knowledge of that map that he is about to charge over land, when in fact he is about to charge over a snow-covered, hole-filled layer of ice.

As for the Bastard Letter aka the Pink Letter. I think it was written by Mance, but I also think Mance and Stannis are working together, so that's not a huge difference. Stannis implied that he knew about the letter when he told Massey:

Quote

"In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless."

The purpose of the letter was likely to manipulate Jon into action, which it did. But then unfortunately he was stabbed... 

 

[Dejection]

He's going to put out the fire beacon of the tower and set a weirwood alight, making it appear to be the fire beacon which is the only thing the charging Freys can see. They'll charge into the ice and many will crash in. That's one part of it.

[kissdbyfire]

Welcome!

I'm afraid you won't find the answers to these questions here - or anywhere! What you will get is different theories about everything you brought up, and it will be up to you to decide which ones you agree with and which ones you don't. 

So, for my part... 

I think the author of the Pink Letter is none other than Ramsay Bolton. And the battle will be won by Stannis, who will use the frozen lake (punched full of holes) to his advantage. Roose Bolton sends out the Freys and the Manderlys, but each group leaves Winterfell through a different gate. I think the Freys will arrive first and will fall into Stannis' icy trap. I also think the Manderlys will arrive shortly afterwards but will side with Stannis thus ensuring we're rid of as many Freys as possible! And Stannis' "death" and Ramsay's other claims, like that he has Stannis magic sword, are also part of Stannis strategy. 

 

[lAPPYc]

All right, I am not going to quote, because I will have to quote each of you on the same topic. The holes in the lake floor(ceiling?) being unknown to Freys and Boltons.

The Karstark maester will know the significance of the holes, because...

9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

The holes make all the difference.

He is a learned man after all. He will not withhold such a crucial piece of information. I think that his enemies know of the cheese lakes.

Now, for the other parts. The lakes are small, the islands smaller. Doubt that they can fit five thousand soldiers on it. And even if the did,

9 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Maybe the Manderlys arrive before Ramsay, and partner with Stannis to create a ruse that Stannis was defeated prior to Ramsay's arrival.

the smashed lake floor will prevent a meeting between Manderleyes and Stannis. Besides, Stannis thinks that Manderleys killed his envoy, the beloved smuggler hand. He will not be anxious to reach out to them(and maybe also to allow them to reach out to him). And Davos coming along with the Manderleys is also improbable, since he will have to travel across half the north to reach his king.

The beacon theory fails when you read the description of the village. The village is in the wolfswood, and the watchtower is surrounded by trees. There are no trees near the lakes, however, and none, obviously, on the lake floor. But all this is irrelevant. Why would the Freys attack in the night. In the daylight, even with the sun hiding behind storm clouds, they should be able to make out the watchtower for the watchtower, and the weirwood trees for the weirwood trees.

9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

As for the Bastard Letter aka the Pink Letter. I think it was written by Mance, but I also think Mance and Stannis are working together

Mance and Stannis are definately not working together. From Mel's chapter, we have:- 

Quote

Mance Rayder chuckled. “I had my doubts as well, Snow, but why not let her try? It was that, or
let Stannis roast me.”

and

Quote

When the flames had licked at Rattleshirt, the ruby at her throat had grown so hot that she had feared her own flesh might start to
smoke and blacken. Thankfully Lord Snow had delivered her from that agony with his arrows. Whilst
Stannis had seethed at the defiance, she had shuddered with relief.

So,

9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

As for the Bastard Letter aka the Pink Letter. I think it was written by Mance, but I also think Mance and Stannis are working together, so that's not a huge difference. Stannis implied that he knew about the letter when he told Massey:

Quote

"In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless."

The purpose of the letter was likely to manipulate Jon into action, which it did. But then unfortunately he was stabbed... 

this is probably not true. As for the Braavos thing, It seems to me he was only insuring his daughter's future. The pink letter cannot be sent by Stannis simply because it might have driven, as i mentioned in the original question, Selyse to run. Or worse, driven the Night's Watch to cast them out or hand them to the Boltons. The Black Brothers are no match for the Boltons, they would have wanted to save their asses, as some of them clearly did. Doubt Stannis will risk mistreatment of his daughter simply balanced against Jon Snow's honor and his capability to control his men.

This also tells us that Stannis (most probably) cannot use glamour so,

 

9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

execute Arnolf Karstark (pretending he is Theon in another execution identity swap like he did with Mance)

is not possible. Besides, why would he only pretend to kill Theon?

Lastly,

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

And Stannis' "death" and Ramsay's other claims, like that he has Stannis magic sword, are also part of Stannis strategy.

What strategy??? After the heavy losses, if we take them to be true, we have Stannis' forces depleted. As I mentioned, a union with Manderley is unlikely. So we have Stannis, exhausted after about forty days of snow and seven days of battle, sitting out in the snow while Ramsay is warming his butt against the hot water springs of Winterfell. Not a good strategy...

Finally, thank you for welcoming me to the forum. And thanks to skeletons for bringing to my attention the rules about mentioning the show

[Blackfish09]

10 minutes ago, lAPPYc said:

All right, I am not going to quote, because I will have to quote each of you on the same topic. The holes in the lake floor(ceiling?) being unknown to Freys and Boltons.

The Karstark maester will know the significance of the holes, because...

He is a learned man after all. He will not withhold such a crucial piece of information. I think that his enemies know of the cheese lakes.

Now, for the other parts. The lakes are small, the islands smaller. Doubt that they can fit five thousand soldiers on it. And even if the did,

the smashed lake floor will prevent a meeting between Manderleyes and Stannis. Besides, Stannis thinks that Manderleys killed his envoy, the beloved smuggler hand. He will not be anxious to reach out to them(and maybe also to allow them to reach out to him). And Davos coming along with the Manderleys is also improbable, since he will have to travel across half the north to reach his king.

The beacon theory fails when you read the description of the village. The village is in the wolfswood, and the watchtower is surrounded by trees. There are no trees near the lakes, however, and none, obviously, on the lake floor. But all this is irrelevant. Why would the Freys attack in the night. In the daylight, even with the sun hiding behind storm clouds, they should be able to make out the watchtower for the watchtower, and the weirwood trees for the weirwood trees.

Mance and Stannis are definately not working together. From Mel's chapter, we have:- 

and

So,

this is probably not true. As for the Braavos thing, It seems to me he was only insuring his daughter's future. The pink letter cannot be sent by Stannis simply because it might have driven, as i mentioned in the original question, Selyse to run. Or worse, driven the Night's Watch to cast them out or hand them to the Boltons. The Black Brothers are no match for the Boltons, they would have wanted to save their asses, as some of them clearly did. Doubt Stannis will risk mistreatment of his daughter simply balanced against Jon Snow's honor and his capability to control his men.

This also tells us that Stannis (most probably) cannot use glamour so,

 

is not possible. Besides, why would he only pretend to kill Theon?

Lastly,

What strategy??? After the heavy losses, if we take them to be true, we have Stannis' forces depleted. As I mentioned, a union with Manderley is unlikely. So we have Stannis, exhausted after about forty days of snow and seven days of battle, sitting out in the snow while Ramsay is warming his butt against the hot water springs of Winterfell. Not a good strategy...

Finally, thank you for welcoming me to the forum. And thanks to skeletons for bringing to my attention the rules about mentioning the show

What is you're opinion or thoughts on the matter? I'm a firm believer in the Night Lamps theory which you aren't so curious to you're thoughts on the matter?

[Curled Finger]

Welcome to the forum.   You've certainly picked an interesting topic for your maiden post.   I've read through and concur with nearly all the statements above.   Believe me, we have discussed this subject at length for years.   I have to throw in with @Blackfish09 and ask what your ideas are.  It's clear you don't particularly care for the night lamp theory, so what are you thinking could happen?   For all it's worth, I am Team Ramsay as the author of the Pink Letter.   I don't think Stannis is in league with Mance and I'm absolutely certain that Stannis has a brilliant plan for ridding the North of those pesky Boltons and Freys. 

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

13 hours ago, Dejection said:

He's going to put out the fire beacon of the tower and set a weirwood alight, making it appear to be the fire beacon which is the only thing the charging Freys can see. They'll charge into the ice and many will crash in. That's one part of it.

I am pretty sure he isn't going to burn northern Gods in front of his northern army. That would be political suicide.

Quote

"Wise. I am sorry for your mother, but I do not spare the lives of turncloaks. This one, especially. He slew two sons of Eddard Stark. Every northman in my service would abandon me if I showed him any clemency. Your brother must die."

"Then do the deed yourself, Your Grace." The chill in Asha's voice made Theon shiver in his chains. "Take him out across the lake to the islet where the weirwood grows, and strike his head off with that sorcerous sword you bear. That is how Eddard Stark would have done it. Theon slew Lord Eddard's sons. Give him to Lord Eddard's gods. The old gods of the north. Give him to the tree."

And suddenly there came a wild thumping, as the maester's ravens hopped and flapped inside their cages, their black feathers flying as they beat against the bars with loud and raucous caws. "The tree," one squawked, "the tree, the tree," whilst the second screamed only, "Theon, Theon, Theon."

Asha knows what's up. Stannis is going to take Karstark (pretending he is Theon) out the island and cut off his head with Lightbringer, which may or may not catch on fire but will at least be super bright. Lightbringer alone will do the trick, no need to burn the weirwood.

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

Welcome to the forum.   You've certainly picked an interesting topic for your maiden post.   I've read through and concur with nearly all the statements above.   Believe me, we have discussed this subject at length for years.   I have to throw in with @Blackfish09 and ask what your ideas are.  It's clear you don't particularly care for the night lamp theory, so what are you thinking could happen?   For all it's worth, I am Team Ramsay as the author of the Pink Letter.   I don't think Stannis is in league with Mance and I'm absolutely certain that Stannis has a brilliant plan for ridding the North of those pesky Boltons and Freys. 

You are aware that Stannis is the one who spared Mance in the first place right? Specifically to use him. You think he is unaware of Mance's adventures in WF? If not, wtf was he intending on using Mance for?

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

10 hours ago, lAPPYc said:

All right, I am not going to quote, because I will have to quote each of you on the same topic. The holes in the lake floor(ceiling?) being unknown to Freys and Boltons.

The Karstark maester will know the significance of the holes, because...

He is a learned man after all. He will not withhold such a crucial piece of information. I think that his enemies know of the cheese lakes.

You are assuming the maester knew about the many holes drilled in the lake and its potential tactical significance. I highly doubt he would know about this. The only person who sort of seemed to catch on was Noseless Ned, who complained that the lakes had been fished out, but that was in the context of a discussion about running low on food and not military tactics. Regardless, I doubt the maester would have even heard about Noseless Ned's opinion on the holes in the lake.

Quote

"Too few fish and too many fishermen," Lord Peasebury said gloomily. He had good reason for gloom; it was his men Ser Godry had just burned, and there were some in this very hall who had been heard to say that Peasebury himself surely knew what they were doing and might even have shared in their feasts.

"He's not wrong," grumbled Ned Woods, one of the scouts from Deepwood. Noseless Ned, he was called; frostbite had claimed the tip of his nose two winters past. Woods knew the wolfwood as well as any man alive. Even the king's proudest lords had learned to listen when he spoke. "I know them lakes. You been on them like maggots on a corpse, hundreds o' you. Cut so many holes in the ice it's a bloody wonder more haven't fallen through. Out by the island, there's places look like a cheese the rats been at." He shook his head. "Lakes are done. You fished them out."

We might be thinking about the lake holes in terms of a brilliant military tactic, but it is unreasonable to think that the maester would 1) hear about Ned's opinion and 2) jump to the conclusion that it was part of a trap Stannis was luring his enemies into.

10 hours ago, lAPPYc said:

the smashed lake floor will prevent a meeting between Manderleyes and Stannis. Besides, Stannis thinks that Manderleys killed his envoy, the beloved smuggler hand. He will not be anxious to reach out to them(and maybe also to allow them to reach out to him). And Davos coming along with the Manderleys is also improbable, since he will have to travel across half the north to reach his king.

Certainly not, the village is not on an island! Manderly's forces could ride around the lake and meet up with them.  

More importantly, Manderly has probably informed Stannis that Davos is alive. Why wouldn't he? The whole point of the ruse was to fool Cersei and the Freys to get his son back, which he did. And as a bonus, he can now form an alliance with Stannis in secret that his enemies won't expect because they think he killed Davos. Mance is working for Stannis, who previously defeated and captured him but then spared his life. And Mance came into WF as a singer specifically because Manderly did not bring a singer with him.

Quote

Davos understood. "You want the boy."

"Roose Bolton has Lord Eddard's daughter. To thwart him White Harbor must have Ned's son … and the direwolf. The wolf will prove the boy is who we say he is, should the Dreadfort attempt to deny him. That is my price, Lord Davos. Smuggle me back my liege lord, and I will take Stannis Baratheon as my king."

Quote

Up near the dais, Abel was plucking at his lute and singing "Fair Maids of Summer." He calls himself a bard. In truth he's more a pander. Lord Manderly had brought musicians from White Harbor, but none were singers, so when Abel turned up at the gates with a lute and six women, he had been made welcome. "Two sisters, two daughters, one wife, and my old mother," the singer claimed, though not one looked like him. "Some dance, some sing, one plays the pipe and one the drums. Good washerwomen too."

 

10 hours ago, lAPPYc said:

The beacon theory fails when you read the description of the village. The village is in the wolfswood, and the watchtower is surrounded by trees. There are no trees near the lakes, however, and none, obviously, on the lake floor. But all this is irrelevant. Why would the Freys attack in the night. In the daylight, even with the sun hiding behind storm clouds, they should be able to make out the watchtower for the watchtower, and the weirwood trees for the weirwood trees.

They may not be stupid enough to attack at night, but they certainly might attack during a heavy snowstorm, you know, like the sort that has been happening frequently in the area.  

10 hours ago, lAPPYc said:

Mance and Stannis are definately not working together. From Mel's chapter, we have:- 

  Quote

Mance Rayder chuckled. “I had my doubts as well, Snow, but why not let her try? It was that, or
let Stannis roast me.”

and

  Quote

When the flames had licked at Rattleshirt, the ruby at her throat had grown so hot that she had feared her own flesh might start to
smoke and blacken. Thankfully Lord Snow had delivered her from that agony with his arrows. Whilst
Stannis had seethed at the defiance, she had shuddered with relief.

So,

  18 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

As for the Bastard Letter aka the Pink Letter. I think it was written by Mance, but I also think Mance and Stannis are working together, so that's not a huge difference. Stannis implied that he knew about the letter when he told Massey:

  Quote

"In Braavos you may hear that I am dead. It may even be true. You shall find my sellswords nonetheless."

The purpose of the letter was likely to manipulate Jon into action, which it did. But then unfortunately he was stabbed... 

this is probably not true. As for the Braavos thing, It seems to me he was only insuring his daughter's future. The pink letter cannot be sent by Stannis simply because it might have driven, as i mentioned in the original question, Selyse to run. Or worse, driven the Night's Watch to cast them out or hand them to the Boltons. The Black Brothers are no match for the Boltons, they would have wanted to save their asses, as some of them clearly did. Doubt Stannis will risk mistreatment of his daughter simply balanced against Jon Snow's honor and his capability to control his men.

What? I am not seeing your logic at all. I am going to assume you incorrectly interpreted both of those quotes. I'm guessing you think that Mance meant that Mel was going behind Stannis's back, and you think that Stannis had seethed at Mel's defiance?

Assuming that's how you interpreted those statements, that is wrong. Stannis was seething at Jon's defiance. Mel was relieved by contrast because she was in terrible pain from the glamour. Stannis knew that Mance was alive and spared his life.

Quote

"Stannis burned the wrong man."

"No." The wildling grinned at him through a mouth of brown and broken teeth. "He burned the man he had to burn, for all the world to see. We all do what we have to do, Snow. Even kings."

And then later Mance alludes to his plans to enter Winterfell. However, if you read that chapter carefully, Mance is actually withholding important information from Mel.

Mel told Mance about her vision of a girl riding north on a dying horse and suggests that Mance go save her, thinking it is Arya. But then Mance, in the conversation a few minutes later with Jon present, says the following:

Quote

“I will need horses. Half a dozen good ones. And this is nothing I can do alone. Some of the spearwives penned up at Mole’s Town should serve. Women would be best for this. The girl’s more like to trust them, and they will help me carry off a certain ploy I have in mind.”

Well, in retrospect we know exactly the ploy Mance is referring to, that is getting into Winterfell disguised as a singer and then breaking out fake Arya and Theon. Mance certainly doesn't need the spearwives to catch up to a girl on the road and execute some sort of "ploy" to help her. Mance and Mel definitely have two very different missions in mind, and that is because Mance is working for Stannis, not Mel. Mance ends up breaking Theon out of WF, the most important hostage in the negotiations between Stannis, Manderly, Robett Glover, and the Ironborn who want Theon back so they can nullify the kingsmoot and make him their ruler.

As for the whole thing about risking the safety of his family, I think you are just lending way too much weight to that argument. I don't think the Pink Letter put his family in terrible danger. And if they end up fleeing, so what? As long as they stay alive for when Stannis reveals he is fine. They can't be handed over to the Boltons if Stannis defeats the Boltons and takes WF, which is his whole plan.

10 hours ago, lAPPYc said:

This also tells us that Stannis (most probably) cannot use glamour so,

  18 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

execute Arnolf Karstark (pretending he is Theon in another execution identity swap like he did with Mance)

is not possible. Besides, why would he only pretend to kill Theon?

He doesn't need a glamour, because post-torture Theon looks like an old man, so much so that his own sister even failed to recognize him at first. And Theon is the most valuable hostage in the north. Stannis certainly isn't going to kill him.

10 hours ago, lAPPYc said:

What strategy??? After the heavy losses, if we take them to be true, we have Stannis' forces depleted. As I mentioned, a union with Manderley is unlikely. So we have Stannis, exhausted after about forty days of snow and seven days of battle, sitting out in the snow while Ramsay is warming his butt against the hot water springs of Winterfell. Not a good strategy...

Finally, thank you for welcoming me to the forum. And thanks to skeletons for bringing to my attention the rules about mentioning the show

Stuff like this is why I think Mance wrote the Pink Letter, and I think Stannis at least knows about it. It is just lies. Stannis's forces are probably not depleted and there was no seven days of battle. It will likely be a short and bloody massacre at the village followed by Chekov's old men (the Umbers inside WF) carrying out some sort of berserker suicide mission destroying any real opposition left inside the castle.

 you are welcome

[Curled Finger]

23 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

You are aware that Stannis is the one who spared Mance in the first place right? Specifically to use him. You think he is unaware of Mance's adventures in WF? If not, wtf was he intending on using Mance for?

Actually no.   I was thinking it was pretty much Mel doing what she wants regardless what Azor Ahai wills.  That sort of duplicity isn't a trait I've seen in Stannis.   When I consider Mance in Winterfell I wonder what Mel is really up to. 

[snow is the man]

I think stannis is dead to be honest. I don't see why he would send jon that letter since jon couldn't get to stannis anyway.  I think stannis will die but severly damage the boltons forces paving the way for jon to attack them later on. Also remember that while stannis and his people have been out freezing in the snow eating their horses the bolton's and their allies have been in winterfell warm and eating a full meal every day.

[Blackfish09]

I, personally have always wondered whether Stannis knows about glamoured Rattleshirt or not. I go back and forth a lot, but don't actually recall their being a definitive answer from the books.

[Lord Varys]

22 minutes ago, Blackfish09 said:

I, personally have always wondered whether Stannis knows about glamoured Rattleshirt or not. I go back and forth a lot, but don't actually recall their being a definitive answer from the books.

It is pretty obvious that he knew. Else he would never have handed him over to Jon. I mean, do you actually think a man like Stannis would have thought Jon could trust Rattleshirt? Jon gave Stannis the pretext to secretly pardon Mance and then he gave Mance to Jon to help Jon prepare the Wall for the Others in his absence. That's all very clear in the book. And until Melisandre had her Arya idea Mance was one of Jon's best assets at the Wall. He taught him some valuable lessons and was - without Jon's knowing - his eyes and ears in the castle.

As to the Pink Letter:

Stannis could indeed fake his own death. That could be part of a ruse to get a lot of men disguised as Karstarks (or actual Karstark men now loyal to him) and Manderlys now working for him into Winterfell. Then Ramsay's letter might reflect that he fell for that ruse. The other possibility simply is that Ramsay sent a letter to Jon where he claimed Stannis was dead to intimidate him and get himself some hostages to be used against Stannis. That's what I would have done if I were in his position immediately after I found out that Jon Snow was behind Mance's mission to steal my wife.

And Ramsay could actually have found out all that before there was a battle against Stannis. Jeyne's disappearance might have changed a lot of plans in Winterfell.

[Free Northman Reborn]

19 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is pretty obvious that he knew. Else he would never have handed him over to Jon. I mean, do you actually think a man like Stannis would have thought Jon could trust Rattleshirt? Jon gave Stannis the pretext to secretly pardon Mance and then he gave Mance to Jon to help Jon prepare the Wall for the Others in his absence. That's all very clear in the book. And until Melisandre had her Arya idea Mance was one of Jon's best assets at the Wall. He taught him some valuable lessons and was - without Jon's knowing - his eyes and ears in the castle.

As to the Pink Letter:

Stannis could indeed fake his own death. That could be part of a ruse to get a lot of men disguised as Karstarks (or actual Karstark men now loyal to him) and Manderlys now working for him into Winterfell. Then Ramsay's letter might reflect that he fell for that ruse. The other possibility simply is that Ramsay sent a letter to Jon where he claimed Stannis was dead to intimidate him and get himself some hostages to be used against Stannis. That's what I would have done if I were in his position immediately after I found out that Jon Snow was behind Mance's mission to steal my wife.

And Ramsay could actually have found out all that before there was a battle against Stannis. Jeyne's disappearance might have changed a lot of plans in Winterfell.

What bugs me is the tactical folly on the Boltons side to send the Freys out separately from the Manderlys who will go out separately from Ramsay himself. So in effect sending three separate smaller forces of 1500, 300 and whatever Ramsay has with him personally, to attack Stannis's superior force of 5000. And yet, this seems to be the only way in which to explain the events if it plays out as we suspect. I mean, just throwing men away as cannon fodder against a larger enemy force seems stupid for a tactician like Roose Bolton.

Martin will have to spin this quite creatively to make the sequence of events make sense.

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

What bugs me is the tactical folly on the Boltons side to send the Freys out separately from the Manderlys who will go out separately from Ramsay himself. So in effect sending three separate smaller forces of 1500, 300 and whatever Ramsay has with him personally, to attack Stannis's superior force of 5000. And yet, this seems to be the only way in which to explain the events if it plays out as we suspect. I mean, just throwing men away as cannon fodder against a larger enemy force seems stupid for a tactician like Roose Bolton.

Martin will have to spin this quite creatively to make the sequence of events make sense.

That is why I pointed out that we don't know what immediate effects Jeyne's disappearance will have had on the people in Winterfell. Roose makes the decision to rid himself of the Manderlys and Freys before Jeyne disappears. He realizes that tensions run higher and higher in the castle and if doesn't do anything now it might come to open hostilities. As it did when Lord Wyman was attacked by Hosteen Frey. If such things get worse then he might lose control over all the men in Winterfell and that would be the end of him.

But once the Freys and Manderlys are out in the snow they are essentially no longer his problem. He doesn't have to let them in again. And he has rid himself of a lot of men he cannot trust, not to mention that the provisions will last longer now.

The idea that Ramsay is going to come behind the Manderlys and Freys is just Theon's mad fear. He has no reason to actually believe that but it is what he fears will happen. Because he is afraid of Ramsay. But whether Roose is actually going to give Ramsay command of his forces in a battle against Stannis Baratheon is unknown to us. It appears like folly if you ask me, but if Roose actually plans to not face Stannis directly in battle but rather have expendable men - like the Freys, Manderlys, and his own son and whatever men he is going to grant him - weaken him further without actually defeating him then this would be a good plan. The Freys and Manderlys can somewhat be trusted to deal Stannis some blows (note that Roose thinks Lord Wyman killed Davos, so he has small reason to suspect that Manderly might betray him to Stannis), and Ramsay's forces (if we goes out) could also be trusted to have some effect. But even if Stannis wins against all those forces he cannot hope to besiege in the middle of the snow, especially not with the meager provisions that he has.

One also has to keep in mind that the Karstark betrayal is still on the table in Roose's mind. He would most likely intend to use that for the final confrontation, so not when the Freys or Manderlys attack but when the Bolton army comes. And now Stannis has the means to actually use the maester and his ravens to misinform Roose directly. That gives Stannis a lot of power and could easily decide the entire thing.

But for the Freys we know that the death of Aenys Frey was a setback. They most likely didn't press on immediately thereafter since there are hints that they will first deal with the Umbers. Now, if the Manderlys could go out unhindered they might have the time to prepare. If Wyman has a letter written and signed by Davos given to one of his knights whom he could deliver to Stannis they could make plans to use the Manderlys to betray the Freys or Boltons at a crucial point during the battle(s), in a similar fashion as the Karstark betrayal was supposed to work.

And the Karstark betrayal in and of itself could also be used to great effect, by using the maester to deliver false information about the terrain to the Boltons and to lure them into a very vulnerable position.

[Jon Ice-Eyes]

My only fear is that the Boltons, and this battle, might take up more than two or three chapters. If they last more than half the book it will be a disappointment. The Boltons are a goddamn speed bump, not real villains.

[Free Northman Reborn]

23 minutes ago, Jon Ice-Eyes said:

My only fear is that the Boltons, and this battle, might take up more than two or three chapters. If they last more than half the book it will be a disappointment. The Boltons are a goddamn speed bump, not real villains.

Agreed.

[The Fattest Leech]

31 minutes ago, Jon Ice-Eyes said:

My only fear is that the Boltons, and this battle, might take up more than two or three chapters. If they last more than half the book it will be a disappointment. The Boltons are a goddamn speed bump, not real villains.

Here, here!  They are literary plot devices and they have served their purpose. 

[The Bard of Banefort]

15 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Here, here!  They are literary plot devices and they have served their purpose. 

Agreed. There was some discussion in the Roose and Ramsay thread about what exactly Roose's plan is, but unless George throws in something completely random that messes with the plot, I can't see how there's anywhere left for his character to go. It's also telling that George originally wanted the Battle of Ice and the Battle of Fire to be included in ADWD. The Boltons are plot devices to give Stannis his first real victory and to begin to pave the way for a Stark restoration.