Teen Littlefinger's Uriah Gambit

[Angel Eyes]

So I took a look at a theory regarding Littlefinger in 282 AC. The theory is that Littlefinger reported Lyanna's abduction, which led to Brandon going to King's Landing and getting arrested along with 200 men and Elbert Arryn, Lord Rickard getting arrested and their subsequent execution, and Robert's Rebellion. To me, for some reason it makes some sense, given Littlefinger's hatred of Brandon and wanting to get back at him for the numerous wounds he received in their... duel. 

Thoughts?

[Lucius Lovejoy]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

So I took a look at a theory regarding Littlefinger in 282 AC. The theory is that Littlefinger reported Lyanna's abduction, which led to Brandon going to King's Landing and getting arrested along with 200 men and Elbert Arryn, Lord Rickard getting arrested and their subsequent execution, and Robert's Rebellion. To me, for some reason it makes some sense, given Littlefinger's hatred of Brandon and wanting to get back at him for the numerous wounds he received in their... duel. 

Thoughts?

I have a really hard time believing that this detail of Littlefinger being the one who announced the abduction would be forgotten to history if true.  I was under the impression timeline wise that Littlefinger would have still been recovering from his injuries via Brandon at this point and thus out of commission.  Could be true though, but I'm not inclined to believe it.

[HaeSuse]

Certainly not out of character if so, and it would be a beautiful plot arc beginning, in my eyes. I approve.

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

So I took a look at a theory regarding Littlefinger in 282 AC. The theory is that Littlefinger reported Lyanna's abduction, which led to Brandon going to King's Landing and getting arrested along with 200 men and Elbert Arryn, Lord Rickard getting arrested and their subsequent execution, and Robert's Rebellion. To me, for some reason it makes some sense, given Littlefinger's hatred of Brandon and wanting to get back at him for the numerous wounds he received in their... duel. 

Thoughts?

It would be a helluva coincidence, especially since LF would have absolutely no reason to be anywhere near Harrenhal either on his way home to the Fingers or afterward. He would have to be among the first to know of the abduction in order to bring the news to Brandon before anyone else, but there is no reason at all to think he could be that well informed. It's not like he was at all close to Lyanna or the Whents.

But that begs the question, how did news of the abduction get out? Did the kidnappers announce their deed? Did a guard manage to escape? Did some smallfolk witness it? Or maybe this whole event is not as the histories have presented it.

If it's important to the story, we are sure to find out. If not, it will be just another random detail that needs no answer.

[ravenous reader]

1 hour ago, Angel Eyes said:

So I took a look at a theory regarding Littlefinger in 282 AC. The theory is that Littlefinger reported Lyanna's abduction, which led to Brandon going to King's Landing and getting arrested along with 200 men and Elbert Arryn, Lord Rickard getting arrested and their subsequent execution, and Robert's Rebellion. To me, for some reason it makes some sense, given Littlefinger's hatred of Brandon and wanting to get back at him for the numerous wounds he received in their... duel. 

Thoughts?

Yes, I think that's what happened, but I can't prove the logistics of how -- perhaps someone else is motivated?  Inevitably, there are those who will reply to your thread flatly ruling out Littlefinger's involvement on the basis that he 'couldn't possibly' have been in Brandon's vicinity at the time, or crossed paths with either him or Lyanna.  It certainly fits, however, with Littlefinger's modus operandi for him to have interfered with the message and/or the messenger.  In fact, the very first time we are introduced to him is not in King's Landing when we meet him in the flesh, but already at Winterfell when Cat receives the letter which she thinks originates with her sister, but, unbeknownst to her and us, actually bears the trace of Littlefinger's devious brain infiltrating Winterfell.  Having lost the duel with swords, he turned to duelling with words, hence his chosen moniker 'Mockingbird'!

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Eddard IV

"Rather too well," Littlefinger said. "I still carry a token of his esteem. Did Brandon speak of me too?"

"Often, and with some heat," Ned said, hoping that would end it. He had no patience with this game they played, this dueling with words.

"I should have thought that heat ill suits you Starks," Littlefinger said. "Here in the south, they say you are all made of ice, and melt when you ride below the Neck."

In this passage, with the 'below the neck' reference (alluding to Brandon's death by strangulation) as well as the reference to 'melting' (Rickard's mode of death in which his armor melted off him as he burned), Littlefinger can be seen to be gloating in satisfaction at the deaths of Ned's relatives (for which he perhaps proudly feels responsible for having precipitated in some way?), in addition to betraying his desire to also have Ned decapitated and/or burned.  On a side note, I don't believe for a moment that Joffrey ordered Ned's beheading on his own steam; I think a little bird whispered in his ear...

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Sansa VI

He tilted his chin back and squeezed the blood orange, so the juice ran down into his mouth. "I love the juice but I loathe the sticky fingers," he complained, wiping his hands. "Clean hands, Sansa. Whatever you do, make certain your hands are clean."

Sansa spooned up some juice from her own orange. "But if it wasn't the Kettleblacks and it wasn't Ser Dontos . . . you weren't even in the city, and it couldn't have been Tyrion . . . "

"No more guesses, sweetling?"

She shook her head. "I don't . . . "

Petyr smiled. "I will wager you that at some point during the evening someone told you that your hair net was crooked and straightened it for you."

Sansa raised a hand to her mouth. "You cannot mean . . . she wanted to take me to Highgarden, to marry me to her grandson . . . "

"Gentle, pious, good-hearted Willas Tyrell. Be grateful you were spared, he would have bored you spitless. The old woman is not boring, though, I'll grant her that. A fearsome old harridan, and not near as frail as she pretends. When I came to Highgarden to dicker for Margaery's hand, she let her lord son bluster while she asked pointed questions about Joffrey's nature. I praised him to the skies, to be sure . . . whilst my men spread disturbing tales amongst Lord Tyrell's servants. That is how the game is played.

"I also planted the notion of Ser Loras taking the white. Not that I suggested it, that would have been too crude. But men in my party supplied grisly tales about how the mob had killed Ser Preston Greenfield and raped the Lady Lollys, and slipped a few silvers to Lord Tyrell's army of singers to sing of Ryam Redwyne, Serwyn of the Mirror Shield, and Prince Aemon the Dragonknight. A harp can be as dangerous as a sword, in the right hands.

"Mace Tyrell actually thought it was his own idea to make Ser Loras's inclusion in the Kingsguard part of the marriage contract. Who better to protect his daughter than her splendid knightly brother? And it relieved him of the difficult task of trying to find lands and a bride for a third son, never easy, and doubly difficult in Ser Loras's case.

"Be that as it may. Lady Olenna was not about to let Joff harm her precious darling granddaughter, but unlike her son she also realized that under all his flowers and finery, Ser Loras is as hot-tempered as Jaime Lannister. Toss Joffrey, Margaery, and Loras in a pot, and you've got the makings for kingslayer stew.

So what happens when you toss Brandon Stark, Lyanna Stark and Aerys/Rhaegar Targaryen into a pot?

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Eddard IV

"This?" Littlefinger flipped the knife casually end over end. "A sweet piece of steel, but it cuts two ways, my lord. The Imp will no doubt swear the blade was lost or stolen while he was at Winterfell, and with his hireling dead, who is there to give him the lie?" He tossed the knife lightly to Ned. "My counsel is to drop that in the river and forget that it was ever forged."

Ned regarded him coldly. "Lord Baelish, I am a Stark of Winterfell. My son lies crippled, perhaps dying. He would be dead, and Catelyn with him, but for a wolf pup we found in the snow. If you truly believe I could forget that, you are as big a fool now as when you took up sword against my brother."

"A fool I may be, Stark … yet I'm still here, while your brother has been moldering in his frozen grave for some fourteen years now. If you are so eager to molder beside him, far be it from me to dissuade you, but I would rather not be included in the party, thank you very much."

It's interesting how Littlefinger, understanding the Starks' fierce loyalty to their own, preys on Ned's weakness to uphold the honor of the 'pack', advising him against pursuing the issue of Bran's would-be assassin, knowing full well a Stark would never be able to 'drop' the case, in the event of someone having insulted or harmed another Stark, thus manipulating Ned and Catelyn into open enmity against the Lannisters.  Perhaps, similarly, he played the same trick on Brandon Stark, informing him about Lyanna (giving false or skewed info, of course) and then in the same breath advising him to 'drop' it, understanding that Brandon would not be able to resist haring off to defend his sister, thus manipulating him into open enmity against the Targaryens.  'That', my dears, 'is how the game is played'!  As one forum user pointed out (sorry I can't recall who! ), there is an additional connotation to Brandon being a 'gallant fool,' the implication perhaps being that he was played by and therefore was made a fool of and fooled by another, who is the trickster archetype in the equation.  

While you all formulate your theses as to the logistics for and against, bear in mind that nothing travels faster than the word, nor does it require the physical presence of the one sending it-- words can travel via raven or travelling singers, maesters or other servant-messengers, etc., as Littlefinger himself points out in the quote above, and as demonstrated with Dontos and Kettleblack operating as his proxies in King's Landing, even when he isn't around.  

[HaeSuse]

10 minutes ago, ravenous reader said:

<Snip>

Well put, and reasonably well supported.  LF had to get his foot in the door somehow, right? He didn't just show up to the game a player, considering his low birth. Why not this? Do we have a solid timeline on his duel with Brandon, and the execution of Brandon/Rickard? 

The more I think on it, the more I like it. Be it true or not. 

[Angel Eyes]

Petyr Timeline: 

1. Petyr challenges Brandon for Catelyn's hand. Brandon slashes Petyr a dozen times, including a backhand that left Petyr near death. 

2. Petyr is bedridden for a fortnight, Lysa sleeps with Petyr at least once.

3. Once Petyr is well enough, he is sent back to Fingers. Now ambiguous time is: How long does it take to get from Riverrun to the Fingers? 

 

Timeline for everything else: 

1. Rhaegar abducts Lyanna. Where was Lyanna abducted from in the Riverlands?

2. Brandon goes to King's Landing with 200 men, including Elbert Arryn and Ethan Glover, and arrested for threatening the absent Rhaegar.

3. Lord Rickard travels to King's Landing to ransom his son and is imprisoned.

4. Trial by "combat", Lord Rickard is burned alive, Brandon is strangled. 

[Jon Ice-Eyes]

I just have to raise my objection to this theory.

Not on timelines; they may well work out. There is, as far as I know, room for LF to have been involved. 

I object on story grounds. Having so many misfortunes be secretly plots by one guy is just lazy and hack writing. Talent-wise, it's on the level of fanfic: sometimes interesting, but never particularly quality. 

This in no way denies that it might end up going into the books! But it would be a bad decision. Sometimes things just happen in a natural, perfectly plausible way, with no interference.

[Philokles]

I prefer it if Petyr's story was of a slow transformation over the years from an idealistic youth embittered by the denial of the woman he loved and who he thought loved him back, into a cynical manipulator willing to do anything for status and power. To me it is the stewing on that resentment that created the man we have today. Littlefinger suddenly becoming all Machiavellian immediately after recovering seems somewhat implausible and not such a strong narrative even if it could be logistically plausible in the timeline we have.

[Angel Eyes]

As to that, I think he only planned on getting Brandon and the men with him killed, not causing a civil war. How long did it take him before he rose to prominence in Gulltown?

[aryagonnakill#2]

This theory is pretty ridiculous.  Brandon would have never even spoken to LF, let alone believe such a thing from him.  Word would have come to Riverrun via Harrenhall, whether by rider or Raven, LF would have had no business being in the area, or to interfere at RR, he was no longer even welcome there.

[elder brother jonothor dar]

@ http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/profile/120598-ravenous-reader/

Your analysis of LF is good but what he is now is not what he was then.

LF was just a poor kid with limited connections no spy network no money and just lost the only connection to power he had.

I agree it fits his MO but he would need to be in the right place at the right time.  He is being transported back home in poor health, by good fortune runs into a messenger who has news of the abduction, said messenger informs a lowly lord of what happens (fine if said messenger is telling everyone but the crown Prince stealing the future bride and daughter of 2 LP is dangerous information) He then sends the messenger to Brandon, which is fine but would need to know where he is.  All this is possible but highly unlikely.

 

The most likely senario if the theorey is true is that LF the messenger and Brandon were traveling on the same road, in which event LF invovment is minimal as the messenger would have to be heading for Brandon anyway.

[ravenous reader]

4 hours ago, Horse of Kent said:

I prefer it if Petyr's story was of a slow transformation over the years from an idealistic youth embittered by the denial of the woman he loved and who he thought loved him back, into a cynical manipulator willing to do anything for status and power. To me it is the stewing on that resentment that created the man we have today. Littlefinger suddenly becoming all Machiavellian immediately after recovering seems somewhat implausible and not such a strong narrative even if it could be logistically plausible in the timeline we have.

 

2 hours ago, elder brother jonothor dar said:

Your analysis of LF is good but what he is now is not what he was then.

LF was just a poor kid with limited connections no spy network no money and just lost the only connection to power he had.

I agree it fits his MO but he would need to be in the right place at the right time.  He is being transported back home in poor health, by good fortune runs into a messenger who has news of the abduction, said messenger informs a lowly lord of what happens (fine if said messenger is telling everyone but the crown Prince stealing the future bride and daughter of 2 LP is dangerous information) He then sends the messenger to Brandon, which is fine but would need to know where he is.  All this is possible but highly unlikely.

 

The most likely scenario if the theorey is true is that LF the messenger and Brandon were traveling on the same road, in which event LF invovment is minimal as the messenger would have to be heading for Brandon anyway.

As I stated upfront, I make no pretensions to understanding the logistics involved!  I am more interested in the symbolism of the thing and timelines are not my forte -- perhaps @JNR can help.

As far as travelling on the same road, remember Robert Frost's poem, 'The Road Not Taken,' (which GRRM references a couple of times via the idiom), concluding...

Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—

I took the one less traveled by,

And that has made all the difference.

I'll just say, there was no gradual transformation, no fundamental change in personality.  He was always ruthlessly ambitious, vain and grandiose, with a bent for deceit, a flair for manipulation, and the gift of the glib gab, dating back to his childhood:

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Catelyn IV

Catelyn ignored the implied question. "I am not accustomed to being summoned like a serving wench," she said icily. "As a boy, you still knew the meaning of courtesy."

"I've angered you, my lady. That was never my intent." He looked contrite. The look brought back vivid memories for Catelyn. He had been a sly child, but after his mischiefs he always looked contrite; it was a gift he had. The years had not changed him much. Petyr had been a small boy, and he had grown into a small man, an inch or two shorter than Catelyn, slender and quick, with the sharp features she remembered and the same laughing grey-green eyes. He had a little pointed chin beard now, and threads of silver in his dark hair, though he was still shy of thirty. They went well with the silver mockingbird that fastened his cloak. Even as a child, he had always loved his silver.

 

[Lord Wraith]

9 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Thoughts?

So many times I have seen this what if and everytime no one has a scrap of evidence. It's right up there with Baelish working for the Others because it has the same about of proof.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

11 hours ago, Horse of Kent said:

 

I prefer it if Petyr's story was of a slow transformation over the years from an idealistic youth embittered by the denial of the woman he loved and who he thought loved him back, into a cynical manipulator willing to do anything for status and power. To me it is the stewing on that resentment that created the man we have today. Littlefinger suddenly becoming all Machiavellian immediately after recovering seems somewhat implausible and not such a strong narrative even if it could be logistically plausible in the timeline we have.

 

This is the key point, Littlefinger being the one that started it all, as a teenager, wrecks his character arc completely. 

[Graydon Hicks]

12 hours ago, Angel Eyes said:

Petyr Timeline: 

1. Petyr challenges Brandon for Catelyn's hand. Brandon slashes Petyr a dozen times, including a backhand that left Petyr near death. 

2. Petyr is bedridden for a fortnight, Lysa sleeps with Petyr at least once.

3. Once Petyr is well enough, he is sent back to Fingers. Now ambiguous time is: How long does it take to get from Riverrun to the Fingers? 

 

Timeline for everything else: 

1. Rhaegar abducts Lyanna. Where was Lyanna abducted from in the Riverlands?

2. Brandon goes to King's Landing with 200 men, including Elbert Arryn and Ethan Glover, and arrested for threatening the absent Rhaegar.

3. Lord Rickard travels to King's Landing to ransom his son and is imprisoned.

4. Trial by "combat", Lord Rickard is burned alive, Brandon is strangled. 

she was abducted within 10 leagues of harrenhal, like on the river road, which lies inside that radius. i do agree with this theory, its just so hard to pin down exactly where petyr is at the time of the abduction. might it have been my posting on this that prompted your question? 

my theory is that if petyr was either in riverrun, or on the road, and he would have either taken the river road or boat down the red fork, he would have been in position to intercept the message from lyanna. dam nmartin for not giving us something definite. if we could pin down his exact location at the point of time, then we could be far more certain.

what gave me the idea actually came from fanfic, a song of sweet roses, on fanfic.net. there a littel time travel involved, but during it, sansa watches that duel between brandon and petyr, and wonders if that moment is what started the rebellion. it does make a lot sense, given what we know about petyr and how he operates.

for littelfinger to get home, he would have had to take either the river road or the red fork down to the saltpans, then take ship around the coast of the vale to reach the fingers. its round about, but likely the fastest way.

makes you wonder what might have happened if lyanna's message, the correct one, had managed to reach winterfell and the eryie.

[Graydon Hicks]

and remember that petyr did sleep with lysa one more time, after the injury. and that time was the willing one. the first, he was drugged up on milk of the poppy, and thought he was with cat. thats why he claims to have had both their maidenheads. that second time with lysa is when she got pregnant, i think, and thats when hoster sent bealish away, and made lysa drink moontea.

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

 

As I stated upfront, I make no pretensions to understanding the logistics involved!  I am more interested in the symbolism of the thing and timelines are not my forte -- perhaps @JNR can help.

As far as travelling on the same road, remember Robert Frost's poem, 'The Road Not Taken,' (which GRRM references a couple of times via the idiom), concluding...

Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—

I took the one less traveled by,

And that has made all the difference.

I'll just say, there was no gradual transformation, no fundamental change in personality.  He was always ruthlessly ambitious, vain and grandiose, with a bent for deceit, a flair for manipulation, and the gift of the glib gab, dating back to his childhood:

 

Just to clarify my above post, I only question the logistics if the assumption is that all of this just happened to fall into LF's lap on his way home to the Fingers. I simply cannot believe that things just keep working out for Petyr due to an endless supply of extraordinary luck.

But the logistics don't matter if we start to think that LF was part of the kidnapping plot all along, and he was purposely dispatched to bring the news to Brandon precisely because his presence would rile the wild wolf up. And if we go down that road, is it a stretch to think that someone may have heard about Petyr's little scrape with Brandon and decided he would make the perfect messenger -- something that Petyr would no doubt emulate years later when he heard about Ser Dontos' near-death experience?

Can we go even further and suspect that Hoster Tully may have been involved somehow? Perhaps instructing young Petyr to meet up with Rhaegar and the KG and to follow their directions after that? Mayhaps Hoster was having second thoughts about marrying his eldest daughter to a philandering wingnut and decided to create a diversion?

I'm out on a limb here, I know, but if LF was involved in any way, I find it more plausible that it was by design not happenstance.

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 6/28/2017 at 11:25 AM, Angel Eyes said:

Thoughts?

Absolute bollocks. He was still a kid who was sent back home after getting his ass kicked and humiliated. He didn't have an opportunity to start building his network until he was put in charge of customs in gulltown. He is powerful now, as an adult after holding positions of power and importance. Yes he hated Brandon, yes he loved Cat, but the daughter of a Lord Paramount would not be traveling alone, and those companions are who told brandon and everyone else about Lyanna going with the prince 

[Angel Eyes]

I think this is where I heard the theory. Branches into different places, i.e. That Petyr told Rhaegar where Lyanna was going to be, having seen or heard about the "moment all the smiles died" and Rhaegar ran with it with Arthur and Oswell. Point is, Littlefinger wanted vengeance on Brandon and didn't necessarily intend for a war to happen, just that Brandon lost his life in a very undignified way.