B + A = J, R + L = J, R + L = D, N + A = J

[Northern_Star]

I doubt that Danny is Jons sister, however it seems that she is not who she thinks she is. It doesn't make sense to hide one targ baby and put a sticker on another. She's most likely Ashara Dayne's and Aerys daughter. That's why Ned tries to protect her. We will soon enough know how is who.  

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

3 hours ago, Northern_Star said:

I doubt that Danny is Jons sister, however it seems that she is not who she thinks she is. It doesn't make sense to hide one targ baby and put a sticker on another. She's most likely Ashara Dayne's and Aerys daughter. That's why Ned tries to protect her. We will soon enough know how is who.  

2

So if this is indeed the most likely scenario. What evidence from the text and or SSM's etc are you going to present to prove that? 

I'll be waiting. 

[Ygrain]

5 hours ago, Northern_Star said:

I doubt that Danny is Jons sister, however it seems that she is not who she thinks she is. It doesn't make sense to hide one targ baby and put a sticker on another. She's most likely Ashara Dayne's and Aerys daughter. That's why Ned tries to protect her. We will soon enough know how is who.  

Ned tries to protect her? How? He didn't agree with the assassination plan but he didn't move a finger to warn or help Dany.

He also tried toprotect Cersei's children, does this mean they are, in fact, not who they are?

[Maester Crypt]

N+A=J

Pure theory of course.

Neds father was great grandson of Beron Stark and Lorra Royce. His mother was the grand daughter of Beron and Lorra.

Asharas parents will turn out to be the great grand(son/daughter) and grand(son/daughter) of Maekar Targaryan and Dyanna Dayne.

Howland Reeds knowledge acquired at the Isle of Faces about the coming war for Dawn and his confession of this as Arthur was about to kill Ned is what stopped the Sword of the Morning from killing him. Thus began the preparation for the winter that is come. Ned to raise and teach Jon until the time has come. Arthur to unite the wildlings and bring them south of the wall.

[Consigliere]

All these alternatives are rubbish. In addition to the mountain of evidence in favour of R+L=J, we also have it straight from Ran who worked on the annotated edition of AGoT on Subtext with Anne Groell where she confirmed that after reading the manuscript of Game, Martin asked her if she figured out Jon's parentage and she answered correctly. So basically we know that Jon's parentage can be figured out from Game alone and any alternative that is heavily reliant on information outside that book is most likely wrong. Besides, the show will be putting this issue to bed very soon. Unfortunately this isn't going to be enough for some people (Martin spelling it out for them in the next book might not be enough either) because they have become so attached to their pet theories that their fanfiction has become canon in their own heads.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

1 hour ago, Maester Crypt said:

N+A=J

Pure theory of course.

Neds father was great grandson of Beron Stark and Lorra Royce. His mother was the grand daughter of Beron and Lorra.

Asharas parents will turn out to be the great grand(son/daughter) and grand(son/daughter) of Maekar Targaryan and Dyanna Dayne.

Howland Reeds knowledge acquired at the Isle of Faces about the coming war for Dawn and his confession of this as Arthur was about to kill Ned is what stopped the Sword of the Morning from killing him. Thus began the preparation for the winter that is come. Ned to raise and teach Jon until the time has come. Arthur to unite the wildlings and bring them south of the wall.

Pure nonsense more like!

Where is your evidence? How do you propose Ned was able to meet up with and have sex with Ashara Dayne amidst a war, whilst fighting battles and sleeping in a camp? How did he manage to send a Raven to Ashara detailing where he would be in a fortnight/a month and that she should travel to meet him there, where they could then have their trist? Where are the clues this took place? 

[TMIFairy]

46 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

Besides, the show will be putting this issue to bed very soon.

Irrelevant.

The show has taken a separate path years ago.

For all I care the show might just as well reveal that Jon is a girl

And in the book Jon might remain as dead as a Norwegian Blue parrot making the question of his (her?) parentage a non sequitur.

 

[kissdbyfire]

12 minutes ago, TMIFairy said:

Irrelevant.

The show has taken a separate path years ago.

For all I care the show might just as well reveal that Jon is a girl

And in the book Jon might remain as dead as a Norwegian Blue parrot making the question of his (her?) parentage a non sequitur.

 

Well, Martin did say that .jon himself will learn who his parents were, so he won't remain dead... at least not just yet. 

[TMIFairy]

8 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Well, Martin did say that .jon himself will learn who his parents were, so he won't remain dead... at least not just yet. 

OK - I stand corrected.

[Consigliere]

52 minutes ago, TMIFairy said:

Irrelevant.

The show has taken a separate path years ago.

For all I care the show might just as well reveal that Jon is a girl

And in the book Jon might remain as dead as a Norwegian Blue parrot making the question of his (her?) parentage a non sequitur.

 

Nah, Jon's parentage in books and show will be the same.

[Ygrain]

2 hours ago, Consigliere said:

Nah, Jon's parentage in books and show will be the same.

Didn't GRRM say that the show would eventually have to adress the issue of Rhaegar and Lyanna? - And unless Rhaegar and Lyanna are relevant to the story, there is no reason why they should be included at all.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Not to mention the fact that D&D won the contract on the basis of having correctly guessed Jon's mother, so as much as they have changed stuff, to change that would be erm....well a tad strange. And they have

Spoiler

Already revealed that R+L=J. 

 

[Luddagain]

The problem with most of these theories is that you need to get the ages to match.

Sure one a kid is 15 or so you can conceal ages but it is much, much harder when a child is young.

A baby has key milestones - crawling, walking, talking, first teeth etc up until losing baby teeth at 7 and also puberty.. The young the child the harder it is to mix up aged by years or months.

There are a number of children with uncertain parentage (mother or father or if they exist at all) in rough order of ages as we are informed.

• Real Aegon 
• Fake Aegon
• Ashara's stillborn child
• Robb
• Jon
• Lyanna's child
• Wylla's child
• Gendry
• Dany
• Rhaella's child born at Dragonstone
• Wylla of the Manderleys
• Ned Dayne
•  
• 
  So let us look at the facts and ages  as we know them.

First (R)Aegon - he was supposedly conceived at Harrenhall (but it is not absolutely clear) but what we do know is that when the war was over he was still a babe in arms able to be "switched" which means a child of say 15 moths or less. That fits with Harrenhall. This would make him 15.5 -16 when the story starts. Since he was still a baby we have no idea what he looked like and who his real parents may be. Possibilities are Rhaegar and Elia or Elia and anyone else (Brandon???), or Ashara and Rhaegar or Ashara and Aerys or Ashara and Ned or Brandon.

Second (F)Aagon who of course may well be real Aegon  What we know of him is that he clearly has strong Targ blood so we can assume that his mother or father were Targs or Blackfyres.   If he is the Real Aegon then any of the parent combinations that include Rhaegar or Aerys are possible.  He seems to be about a year too young to be the Real Aegon, but at 16/17 this can easily be mistaken. Options if he is not real include: 

 

• Rhaegar and Lyanna
• Illyrio and Saera

Third Ashara Dayne's "still born" daughter.  Possibilities are endless - she could indeed have died, she could have been swapped with Elia's dead child, he/she could have been smuggled from KL to protect him/her from Aerys. The father we assume was at Harrenhall. What we know is that any such child has to be roughly the same age as Aegon ie 15.5-16 years when the book started. This more or less rules out Jon and Dany.  

• Jon grew up with Robb who we know to still be 14.75. Jon arrived at Winterfell still with a wet nurse, which suggests he was younger than 1 year. Robb arrived with Catelyn a few months afterwards. At that age you CANNOT fudge whole years. You might get away with 1-2 moths but even that is hard. Just about EVERY woman can pick a baby's age down to a month or so  so a child that was supposedly 9 months cannot in ANY way be confused with one who is actually 15 moths and certainly not with one of 18-21 months.  Only if Jon and Robb arrived at Winterfell as say 2 year olds could you realistically hide an age swap of 6 months, let alone 9 months. The comment above re 7 month olds being confused is laughable. 
• Ruling Dany out is a little harder because she is thirteen when we meet her and did not live with a servant or person who saw her grow etc. However we know she has lived with Viserys for many years and it would be hard to substitute a child with an 8/9 year old boy around. We know there was a child born at Dragonstone so if it were Ashara's STILLBORN daughter it could not have been Dany, since even an 8 year old Viserys could tell the difference between a newborn and a 1 year old. Similarly you do not mix up a thirteen year old girl with a 16 year old - or more to the point when Dany was supposedly 10 and living with Viserys you could not mix up a supposedly ten year old with a thirteen year old. When we meet her she is supposedly 13 and we know she still has a very slight figure - small breasts etc. She is still very clearly a child. She is NOT 16. (Please do NOT think of the movie Dany - just GRRM's story). Also Dany is clearly a Targ so her parents must be at least one of either Rhaegar, Aerys or Rhaella  or some unknown Blackfyre).
• So if the child of Ashara was not Dany or Jon he/she could be Real Aegon swapped with Elia's dead child. - This is my preferred option
• One other very unlikely possibility is that this baby was the child of ROBERT and Ashara and possibly therefore Gendry. We are told he is 14 when we meet him but he is a very big lad, so conceivably he is a 16 year old.  However we more or less get the sense that he is still a very green boy and behaves much more like a 14 year old who has just reached puberty than a 16 year old. 
• Edrik Dayne is much too young to be this child. 

 

Fourth I have listed Robb as having uncertain parentage because as in today's world a child conceived on a wedding night is always just a tad suspect in terms of paternity.  Obviously his mother is Catelyn. Obviously his father is a Stark (the direwolf). He could be the child of Brandon or Ned (or Rickard or Rodrick of Benjen - but rather silly idea). I opt for Brandon because of the timing and because it would really explain Catelyn's fear and hatred of Jon. it is even possible that Catelyn herself is not fully aware of who the father is- she was pretty young and there did not seem to be any older women in her life as a girl who could have told her a thing or three. The Tully girls seemed to have been unchaperoned or else the Petyr/ Lyssa thing would not have happened. It would also explain why Ned married her despite his love for Ashara. It would be a neat contrast to Robb who sort of did the same thing - but risked his throne in so doing. Hoster Tully would have known. All of Brandon's companions are dead and there did not seem to be any wise/gossipy old ladies brought from Riverrun to Winterfell who might tutt-tutt over the birth dates and Robb's "prematurity."  Born in the middle of a war, not too many would bother or care to consider if Robb was born 33 or 40 weeks after the wedding night.  Possibly not even Catelyn. Ned being Ned would have believed that Brandon' s son was the rightful heir anyway, so he would treat Robb as his son.

Fifth is Jon and he is the super mystery boy. All we KNOW for absolute sure is that ONE of his parents was a Stark and that he was born roughly 10-11 months after the war started and probably is one-three months younger than Robb or possibly one-3 months older (any more you could not fake). Since HE believes his nameday is a month of so after Robb's we have to assume it is so. However they must be very, very close, given both boys are 14 when we meet them and Jon turns 15 about 2 months after we meet him. Given Brandon and Rickard were dead, his parents must be Ned, Benjen or Lyanna (or Rodrick and an unknown Stark). What these birthdates suggest is that Jon was conceived very, very close to the time Robb was conceived. We are talking within four weeks of Ned's marriage or if my Brandon plus Cat = Robb theory is right, Jon was conceived BEFORE Ned married Catelyn. Possibilities:

 

• Ned plus Ashara - assumes that Ashara was NOT in KL when the war broke out but was really in the Vale. It also assumes that she did not have a living child with her or at least not breastfeeding a child) - so her stillborn child was indeed dead or handed to someone else. Yes there is of course plenty of time for there to be TWO children from Ashara- one about 15 months when the second was born. actually a very common time difference for the era (and our own - my brother and sister for example). Wylla could indeed have been her wet nurse if the first child was indeed alive. Ned would have conceived Jon BEFORE he married. Indeed it is possible that Ashara was the "fisherman's daughter" helping to smuggle Ned home to call his banners. Under this scenario Ned would have married Ashara (via the Heart tree).. He may have believed her dead when he went on to marry Catelyn. This is one helluva good reason for hiding Jon's parentage from Catelyn.

• Rhaegar plus Lyanna - they were together we are told and the timeline sort of fits although assuming Lyanna died in chilbed her baby seems just a fraction too young to be Jon, assuming he is almost Robb's age.

• Lyanna and Aerys - horrid though it might be, it is possible that Aerys kidnaped Lyanna

• Lyanna and Mance - it is a bit of a stretch but fits with the Bael the Bard meme.

•  

  Ned plus the unknown Wylla or fisherman's daughter. Not really very much like Ned to impregnate someone he did not love, but I guess even he was young and hot blooded once.

  Sixth is Lyanna's child.

   

  Obviously one possibility is Jon

  • Another is F Aegon

  • There is a third, admittedly quite bizarre. Gendry could be Lyanna's son. He is nearly the right age ie about 14.5 when we meet him ie about 4 months younger than Jon. If Robert in fact raped Lyanna (some time during the war) it would explain his collapse into a drunken wastrel. - guilt etc.

  • Then there is Dany.  Age once again makes this unlikely. She is supposed to be at least a year younger than say Robb, turning 14 well after she was married. However while Dany could not possibly be the stillborn daughter of Ashara she COULD be the child of Lyanna but it does still require quite a bit of subterfuge etc. How does such a baby get introduced to Viserys. Even a boy as young as 9 could probably tell an 18 moth old girl from a 9 month old - but it IS possible - just. Dany (whoever her mother was) would have been cared for by wetnurses, so I imagine Viserys would have seen very little of her in her first two years. Mixing up a child of two with one of ho is nearly three is possible given there were no servants around long term and Viserys was just a child. However what happened to the child born on Dragonstone.

  Seventh is Wylla's child. We know Wylla is real- a nurse maid at Starfell. She may indeed be Jon's mother but more likely she is a wetnurse hired  to take care of Lyanna's child OR Jon, whoever his mother was. However who ever she is her NAME s significant. We see it with the Manderly girl - NOT an accident I suspect. We also are told that Wylla was the mother of Lonnel SNOW another bastard Stark. Perhaps it is a generic name like Snow - for the mother of any Stark bastard. Or maybe it was the name of Lyanna;s handmaiden who may have been travelling with her- she too may have been raped following the "kidnap"

   

  Eighth is Gendry. The likely explanation is he is the son of Robert and a whore or serving girl. However the possibility of him being the son of Lyanna remains or indeed yet another child of Ashara via Robert or ???? Stannis.. 

  Ninth is Dany. Possibilities already listed are that she id Lyanna's child by Rhaegar but she is a little young. She may indeed be who we are told she is. The child of Aerys and Rhaella. What we know is that she has dragon blood, so at least one of her parents was a dragon. Given she is the MOTHER of dragons i am willing to bet that her mother was a dragon. However she reminds Barristan of ashara. There are other possibilities: all we need is the daddy and mummy together  at the time of the sack. so we have Aerys and Lyanna, Aerys and Ashara, Rhaegar and Ashara, Rhaella and Arthur Dayne, Rhaella and Tywin, Rhaella and Ned, Ashara and Ned (but no dragon blood), Rhaegar and Rhaella (yuck)

  Tenth is Rhaella's child - which sort of means Dany.  Unless Rhaella and Ashara did a swapsies - which is very possible. Thus it was Ashara who died on Dragonstone. However Viserys would have known his mother so unlikely

  Eleven is wylla of the manderlys who really only gets a mention because her age and name seems significant

  Finally at 12 we have Ned Dayne.  He is much too young to be the child of Lyanna who was dead or Rhaegar or Arthur Dayne (unless still alive). He COULD be the child of Ned and Ashara but it would not have been Ashara who jumped into the sea. Ned and Ashara were together at Starfell around about the right time to conceive young Ned, who seems to be about 9 moths older that Sansa who we can assume was conceived about the time Ned went home to Winterfell and Catelyn arrived with Robb. Young Ned is 12 when we meet him when Arya is about 10 and we can assume Sansa is 11 almost 12 and Robb 15.5. Ned Dayne is about 6-9 moths older than sansa, which fits the timeline of Ned at Starfell

   

  .

   

   

 

 

 

 

[Ser Loras The Gay]

@Luddagain 
Jesus christ my dude, you can be a maester with all that information. All this info makes ToJ even more complicated for me, and mysterious. Thanks for sharing and making the effort.

[TMIFairy]

19 hours ago, Luddagain said:

• Ned plus Ashara - assumes that Ashara was NOT in KL when the war broke out but was really in the Vale.

 

Ashara not on Dragonstone but ranging over Westeros - KL, Vale, or Riverlands ...works for Brandon plus Ashara as well.

Allows for Jon's conception two months either side of Robb's. And Daenerys being 8-9 months younger than Jon.

Lyanna plus Aerys - I like that that one. Funny!

Great post, BTW.

It fried my little brain half way down, but it was great!

[Northern_Star]

On 7/9/2017 at 10:08 PM, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

So if this is indeed the most likely scenario. What evidence from the text and or SSM's etc are you going to present to prove that? 

I'll be waiting. 

Good luck, you will have to wait for the next book to find out

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

28 minutes ago, Northern_Star said:

Good luck, you will have to wait for the next book to find out

Good luck; Why?  I'm not the one claiming something which the books do not in anyway point towards and which GRRM has in no way indicated might be the case. I don't need to wait for the next book to grasp that Dany being Jon's sister is extremely unlikely.  It is evident from the information which we already have. 

I am pretty sure I challenged you to present the information which you believe points to them being siblings. Are you telling me that you have none? and are just hoping that the next book contains something you can pin your claim on?

[Northern_Star]

4 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

I am pretty sure I challenged you to present the information which you believe points to them being siblings. Are you telling me that you have none? and are just hoping that the next book contains something you can pin your claim on?

 

On 7/9/2017 at 6:51 PM, Northern_Star said:

I doubt that Danny is Jons sister, however it seems that she is not who she thinks she is. It doesn't make sense to hide one targ baby and put a sticker on another. She's most likely Ashara Dayne's and Aerys daughter. That's why Ned tries to protect her. We will soon enough know how is who.  

Where did you see that claim in my previous post? Anyway good luck with blaming people on the internet for your apparent terrible life.  

[Northern_Star]

On 7/12/2017 at 0:09 AM, Luddagain said:

• Ruling Dany out is a little harder because she is thirteen when we meet her and did not live with a servant or person who saw her grow etc. However we know she has lived with Viserys for many years and it would be hard to substitute a child with an 8/9 year old boy around. We know there was a child born at Dragonstone so if it were Ashara's STILLBORN daughter it could not have been Dany, since even an 8 year old Viserys could tell the difference between a newborn and a 1 year old. Similarly you do not mix up a thirteen year old girl with a 16 year old - or more to the point when Dany was supposedly 10 and living with Viserys you could not mix up a supposedly ten year old with a thirteen year old. When we meet her she is supposedly 13 and we know she still has a very slight figure - small breasts etc. She is still very clearly a child. She is NOT 16. (Please do NOT think of the movie Dany - just GRRM's story). Also Dany is clearly a Targ so her parents must be at least one of either Rhaegar, Aerys or Rhaella  or some unknown Blackfyre).

First of all - great post.

I think you might give Viserys to much credit here. Hand a 1 year old to an 8 year old then ask the 8 year old to guess the age. Then try to imagine this scenario in an medieval world. Viserys strikes me like a spoiled little brat years later, imagine how he was after he fled KL. I doubt he gave his sister any thought whatsoever before she came of age to marry.   

We also have to keep in mind that undernourished children often lag behind in their physical appearance. 

Anyhow, I don't think you are wrong- we will be smarter when Kong arises.

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

Hey guys, long time no see! What's changed since I've been gone?

On 7/5/2017 at 7:44 PM, Consigliere said:

It's a no-brainer.

On 7/5/2017 at 8:02 PM, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

I have yet to hear a decent argument for any Jon theory other than R+L...And alternative Dany theories feature some crazy "but you can't prove it was physically impossible" baby swaps without a good explanation what for

On 7/7/2017 at 5:32 PM, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

I can not believe people are STILL denying R+L=J. and persisting on some convoluted impossible parentage for Dany. 

On 7/8/2017 at 6:12 PM, Ygrain said:

Bullshit. Or fanfiction, if you'd prefer. Zero textual support for such claims.

On 7/10/2017 at 1:13 AM, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Pure nonsense more like!

I see the board is still full of condescending jerks eager to bully anybody who diverges from Board Orthodoxy.

Don't worry, @Ser Loras The Gay, @Northern_Star, @TMIFairy, @Maester Crypt, @Thesilea Greyjoy et al, the Board Orthodoxy Police and their lack of manners can be annoying, but you can also find many smart, perceptive, and open-minded people on the boards who are interested in having constructive conversations about the books. And remember, the Board Orthodoxy Police are primarily interested in bragging about how much better they know the text than you, and have no interest in following the evidence wherever it leads. You can frequently catch them committing logical fallacies and being entirely wrong.

 

 

On 7/5/2017 at 8:02 PM, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

So, I'll stay with the canon. Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark, and Dany is the daughter of Mad King Aerys and Rhaella Targaryen.

According to canon, Ned said Jon is his and Wylla's son. Perhaps you are confusing "canon" with "your opinion".

 

On 7/6/2017 at 6:50 AM, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Yes, but 1) Dorne isn't the only place you can get lemons, and 2) spending some time in Dorne doesn't equate being Dornish. And anyway, Dany was just an addition to Viserys, I doubt that her alleged half-Dornish pedigree would have been a deal-maker or a deal-breaker.

With the overwhelming number of references in the books about lemons originating in Dorne, you'd have to be willfully ignorant to pretend the lemon tree isn't in Dorne.

 

On 7/6/2017 at 9:48 AM, Ygrain said:

They indeed are - and then we learn about Oberyn's secret pact with the Sealord. As in, Oberyn went to Braavos and Dorne secretly supports the Targs. I believe the lemon tree as an early foreshadowing of this is a way more plausible explanation than Dany not being Dany.

But it's not just Viserys, it's everyone else. Stannis thinks there was a stormborn baby on Dragonstone, whom Willem Darry spirited away along with Vis. If Dany was born elsewhere and lived elsewhere till old enough to have some memories of the place, how come no-one noticed the sudden appearance of Viserys' "sister"? If it was only in KL, it might be argued that they relied on the information from Varys, but did Doran Martell, as well? Yet, he has no doubts that Dany is who she is.

 

Really? Dany's core childhood memory is about a pact that never mattered? Did Oberyn somehow inject memories of a Dornish childhood into her brain?

And then there's your theory that a Rhaella never gave birth on Dragonstone. Where did you pull that out of?

 

On 7/8/2017 at 5:30 PM, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Brandon was at the Riverlands and Ashara, being Elia's handmaiden, at Dragonstone. 

I know where you pulled this tidbit out of, because there is specifically no reference in the text as to Ashara's whereabouts at that time. In fact, you're deliberately misinterpreting the SSM with the information about Ashara's whereabouts. The point, which you are so adept at missing, is that George is refusing to tell us Ashara's whereabouts.

 

On 7/8/2017 at 5:30 PM, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Jon was younger than Robb. There is no possibility of Jon being born before Robb's birth and Brandon's death.

Except that the text obviously implies that Jon is not as old as he's purported to be:

Quote

 "Maester Luwin says bastards grow up faster than other children."

Yeah, you can argue that doesn't mean physical development, if taking a position contrary to me is more important than acknowledging the obvious meaning.

 

On 7/8/2017 at 5:30 PM, Jon's Queen Consort said:

GRRM told us when Jon was born.

No, he told us how much older than Dany he was, we don't know when he was born.

 

On 7/8/2017 at 6:12 PM, Ygrain said:

Sigh. Size. Is. Not. The. Point. A three months baby is able to hold its head, and that's it. A six months old is able to sit and perform a variety of moves and is teething. There is no mistaking one for the other.

On 7/8/2017 at 5:30 PM, Jon's Queen Consort said:

You think that Cat a mother of five, a midwife or a maester hadn't noticed that Jon was several months older than Robb.

The Point. Yes, that ever-elusive point that no matter how obvious, the Board Orthodoxy Police somehow fail to grasp. The point isn't whether any mother would know the difference, the point is whether a 40-year old childless male writer would.