What if Roberts' Rebellion failed??

[Prince Jon Targaryen]

What do you guys think would happen if Robert's Rebellion failed? I've already written down some thoughts...

-Rhaegar goes home to King's Landing in triumph, but immediately gets to work in trying to depose his father.

-Aerys orders the deaths of Jon Arryn, Ned Stark, and Hoster Tully. Aerys would probably be pissed at Tywin Lannister for not helping during the Rebellion.

-The brothers or established heirs of the rebel lords take over (Stannis for Robert, Benjen for Ned, etc) but who for Jon Arryn???

Any other additions? I'd love to hear what other people think about this, I'm fascinated by alternate history and such.

[TMIFairy]

Harrold Hardyng was Jon Arryn's heir.

He was barely weaned at this point, though. Still in swaddling ...

[Prince Jon Targaryen]

3 hours ago, TMIFairy said:

Harrold Hardyng was Jon Arryn's heir.

He was barely weaned at this point, though. Still in swaddling ...

This begs, the question of who the regent/Protector of the Vale would be.

[TMIFairy]

The repercussions of "Targs win" - IMO the possibilities are endless. How decisive the victory had been, how mad Aerys is, how soon Rheagar deposes him, how crazy Rheagar is, who dies on the battlefield and who has to be executed/sent to the Wall/sent into exile.

As to a simpler question - the regents - and assuming that Aerys has a (half) lucid moment - or Rhaegar (not yet at dancing on moonbeams and howling at the moon stage) sent him to the Wall:

1 - North; here Benjen is the only candidate, as a/ the Starks have ruled the North since Fovever, b/ the whole North rose against the Targs, hence no candidate for replacment. So, either Benjen or the Targs have to conquer the North and keep it subdued. Not worth the money. So, Benjen it is.

2 - Vale; one of the lords who originally backed the Crown. There were a few, so have a pick. But an Arryn must stay on as the Great Lord, for similar reasons as the Starks in the North. The regent would step down once Harrold comes of age, but maybe stay as Warden until his death?

3 - Riverlands; here House Tully can be attained, or at least lose the Lord Paramount position. The Targs made them, the Targs can unmake them ...

Top of mind as replacement or simply regent for Edmure  - House Darry?

4 - Stormlands; same situation as Riverlands. Maybe the Connigton's? Maybe with a "Griffin Roost for Storms End" swap? Stannis to the Wall and JonCon as regent for Renly?

 

[Frey Kings]

it wouldnt fail because stannis would carry on

[Vaedys Targaryen]

I think Tywin Lannister would survive. Remember, similarily to Walder Frey, he only joined the rebels once it was clear who won. If It was Robert who died at the Trident, Tywin would most likely have rushed to the Targaryen side, because he must've known that Aerys would've been pissed if Tywin never came to his side.

Other things:

-Lewyn Martell wouldn't have died at the Trident, which means Aerys wouldn't suspect Dorne of betraying him and thusly would have no reason to keep Elia and her children hostage, which subsequently lead to all three's survival.

-Rhaella and Viserys wouldn't have gone to Dragonstone and Daenerys would've been born in King's Landing. Rhaella might've also survived the birth of Dany, since she would've gotten proper help during Dany's birth.

-Eddard Stark would most likely be executed, but Catelyn is still pregnant with Robb and if he had been born safely, he might rule the North as Lord Paramount when he comes of age. Afterall, is there a need to kill the newborn son of a treasonous lord? If not, Robb would be disinherited and Benjen would be the logical choice for the role.

(-Also, if R+L=J, then maybe Jon can inherit the North? He has the Stark blood afterall.)

-Jon Arryn would most likely be executed, which would lead to Harrold Hardying becoming his heir, given that Lysa doesn't miscarry but actually gives birth to a healthy child. This may lead to different things: If it's a boy, he would most definately be educated to be a Targaryen loyalist and might inherit the Vale someday. If it's a girl, she can not only be educated to be a Targaryen loyalist, but she can also be married to the son of the Targaryen loyalists. I don't know who would be regent in the Vale until Harry or Lysa potential child comes of age.

-Hoster Tully would most likely be executed, but it's a pretty good question what would happen to Edmure; he was rather young during the Rebellion and he had no part in it, which allows him to receive a pardon. He would most definately be educated to be a Targaryen loyalist, but he would need a regent until then, maybe someone from house Darry, who are fierce Targaryen loyalists.

-Stannis might be pardoned, executed or be sent to the Wall. He is fiercely loyal to Robert, but since Robert fails the Rebellion, Stannis has no need to continue and would lift the siege. If Stannis doesn't get executed, Renly would probably inherit Storm's End.

 

-Different Lord Paramounts would probably be selected:

Darry is a good choice in the Riverlands.

Connington would be good in the Stormlands, but assuming that Robert would still win the Battle of the Bells, Jon Connington would be sent into exile and his cousin Ronald would become the lord of Griffin's Roost. Rhaegar might send for Jon again and let him come and regain his lands and title again and thusly be Lord Paramount. But Stannis might also be a good choice for Lord Paramount, if he doesn't get executed.

As stated earlier, Catelyn and Lysa are pregnant and might give birth to healthy children, which can rule a Lord Paramounts.

 

But all in all, this depends on whether or not Rhaegar manages to overthrow Aerys. Aerys might just kill all the rebels and whomever sided with them. He did order the absolute destruction of house Darklyn and almost everyone in house Hollard, so if Rhaegar fails to overthrow Aerys, then everyone is going to die.

 

Edit: I just now realised something else:

After Rhaegar had defeated Robert in the Rebellion, he might've promised mercy to the rebels, claiming that since Robert was dead, the Rebellion was lost and since Aerys was still king, he would most likely execute all of the rebels and their families, pointing to house Darklyn. If they would support Rhaegar in overthrowing Aerys, Rhaegar would show them mercy and let them keep some of their lands and titles and, of course, the safety of their families.

Bending the knee to your enemy (who is actually the rightful heir to become your king and is actually not that bad of a person) and help him overthrow his mad father and getting to keep your titles, most of your lands and guarantees the safety of your family sounds preferable to fighting a war for a failed prospective king, and now having to fight against the Reach, Dorne, Westerlands and the Crownlands because your king is a psycho and will kill all of you and your innocent family members.

[Lord Vance II]

Honestly, I don't know if Rhaegar killing Robert is enough to end the rebellion. Four kingdoms are in full-blown rebellion and the even though Robert was the figurehead, Jon Arryn was the architect (with some Hoster maybe). I really don't want to start a troop number clusterf*ck, but I think it's key to the discussion. If the Rebels still have a strong army after the defeat, the rebellion lives. 

Another key thing is what Tywin does. It's easy to say after Robert dies he swoops in for the Targs....but what if he still goes against the Targs? Roberts death and a defeat at the trident would create a vacuum of leadership and Tywin could stand to do better in a new regime than the old that has already screwed him. What if the Lannister army strikes Rhaegars as they fall back to Kings Landing? I guess in this scenario Jon Arryn would probably be King, but sickly weird Lysa could easily die and Cersei become queen....

But if it did all end at the Trident with Rhaegar winning, I think he would try to move fast to pardon the rebels in exchange for peace. Could he possibly explain his "abduction" of Lyanna to Ned? (why didn't he in the first place, honestly).

[TMIFairy]

6 hours ago, StraightFromAsshai said:

it wouldnt fail because stannis would carry on

Stannis was on the verge of starvation, onions delivered by Davos or not. 

Sooner or later the story with Argonella (?) Durnadon would be repeated, his own men throwing him to the ground before Mace Triumphant. That beside, commanding a rebellion from a besieged castle is a bit problematic.

4 hours ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

I think Tywin Lannister would survive. Remember, similarily to Walder Frey, he only joined the rebels once it was clear who won. If It was Robert who died at the Trident, Tywin would most likely have rushed to the Targaryen side, because he must've known that Aerys would've been pissed if Tywin never came to his side.

Could be.

Other things:

-Lewyn Martell wouldn't have died at the Trident, which means Aerys wouldn't suspect Dorne of betraying him and thusly would have no reason to keep Elia and her children hostage, which subsequently lead to all three's survival.

If there was a battle Lewyn still could had died. However, if the battle had been victorious Aeyrs maybe would not see a Dornish plot. With Targs victorious ELia and the children should survive.

-Rhaella and Viserys wouldn't have gone to Dragonstone and Daenerys would've been born in King's Landing. Rhaella might've also survived the birth of Dany, since she would've gotten proper help during Dany's birth.

Possible. Rhealla alive - more fun for everyone

And I bet she'd be happy too!

-Eddard Stark would most likely be executed, but Catelyn is still pregnant with Robb and if he had been born safely, he might rule the North as Lord Paramount when he comes of age. Afterall, is there a need to kill the newborn son of a treasonous lord? If not, Robb would be disinherited and Benjen would be the logical choice for the role.

Could go both ways - maybe frying pregnant women is fun? Aerys would like to know.

(-Also, if R+L=J, then maybe Jon can inherit the North? He has the Stark blood afterall.)

Good idea. But IMO hinges on many other things. If RLJ and Lyanna does not give birth in a dump, then maybe she survives too, just like Rhaella. I don't see Lyanna as regent as "it is all her fault".

-Jon Arryn would most likely be executed,

Dead or the wall

-Hoster Tully would most likely be executed, but it's a pretty good question what would happen to Edmure; he was rather young during the Rebellion and he had no part in it, which allows him to receive a pardon. He would most definately be educated to be a Targaryen loyalist, but he would need a regent until then, maybe someone from house Darry, who are fierce Targaryen loyalists.

Yes.

-Stannis might be pardoned, executed or be sent to the Wall. He is fiercely loyal to Robert, but since Robert fails the Rebellion, Stannis has no need to continue and would lift the siege. If Stannis doesn't get executed, Renly would probably inherit Storm's End.

Yes.

But all in all, this depends on whether or not Rhaegar manages to overthrow Aerys. Aerys might just kill all the rebels and whomever sided with them. He did order the absolute destruction of house Darklyn and almost everyone in house Hollard, so if Rhaegar fails to overthrow Aerys, then everyone is going to die.

Chaos

 

Edit: I just now realised something else:

After Rhaegar had defeated Robert in the Rebellion, he might've promised mercy to the rebels, claiming that since Robert was dead, the Rebellion was lost and since Aerys was still king, he would most likely execute all of the rebels and their families, pointing to house Darklyn. If they would support Rhaegar in overthrowing Aerys, Rhaegar would show them mercy and let them keep some of their lands and titles and, of course, the safety of their families.

I agree with such a senario - I've toyed with it in my head. And I think I have seen it in Those Which Cannot Be Mentioned.

 

 

54 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

Honestly, I don't know if Rhaegar killing Robert is enough to end the rebellion. Four kingdoms are in full-blown rebellion and the even though Robert was the figurehead, Jon Arryn was the architect (with some Hoster maybe). I really don't want to start a troop number clusterf*ck, but I think it's key to the discussion. If the Rebels still have a strong army after the defeat, the rebellion lives. 

Depends on diplomacy. As Vaedys Taragryen pointed out above -  or you yourself below, if Rheagar survives his victory and has the good sense to offer palatable terms, the rebels may lay down their arms. If not, then there will be a bloody "hunt them down and kill to the last babe" war lasting years.

Another key thing is what Tywin does. It's easy to say after Robert dies he swoops in for the Targs....but what if he still goes against the Targs? Roberts death and a defeat at the trident would create a vacuum of leadership and Tywin could stand to do better in a new regime than the old that has already screwed him. What if the Lannister army strikes Rhaegars as they fall back to Kings Landing? I guess in this scenario Jon Arryn would probably be King, but sickly weird Lysa could easily die and Cersei become queen....

Very interesting scenario! Dog eat dog ... erm ... lion eat dragon!

 

 

[Ralphis Baratheon]

IF Aerys lives and is still King he'd execute Jon Arryn and ALL of House Stark, House Baratheon and House Tully. Tywin would figure out a way to prove his loyalty to Aerys the same way he did for Robert. He'd become Aery's Hand once again.

Rhaegar would probably be to heart broken to take the Throne away from Aerys when he realized Lyanna birthed him a boy instead of the Visenya he wanted. He'd take Cersei as a mistress to try for a Visenya. During which time Elia and her kids would come down with a terrible sickness(Pycelle) and Rhaegar would marry Cersei to get his new three heads from her alone. He'd suspect the Lannisters involvement in Elia's and her kids deaths but would do nothing because getting his three heads is more important to him then anything else, including deposing he's mad father. Tywin would make a deal with the Tyrells for a future marriage between Rhaegar's and Cersei's first born son to marry Margaery.

Jon Snow would get taken in by Ashara Dayne as a babe after Rhaegar tells Arthur he has no use for the boy. Everyone would think he's Ashara's and he'd grow up knowing a mother's love. 

This is just how I see it going down.

 

[TMIFairy]

Ralphis Baratheon -

[Hodor the Articulate]

One thing that would stay the same is how the prophecies are fulfilled, and by whom. It's fun to think about the different paths we'd get there though, which would obviously be different. Like, Cersei would still be Queen at some point, but to whom would she marry to be that? And supposing Dany is AAR, she'd still hatch her dragons, but who gets sacrificed?

[DarkBastard]

There are so many variables that need to be firmed up before this can truly be answered, but most important is:

Did Lyanna go willingly with Rhaegar?

This single fact would greatly affect the dynamic of the outcome.  The assumption they all accepted was that Lyanna was "abducted and raped" by Rhaegar.  We have learned that doesn't fit with the opinions of very honorable people who knew him closest.

IF they were in love, and the rebellion was lost...the next big question is:

Did Rhaegar (and Tywin?) plan the tournament at Harrenhal to gather the great Lords to discuss a peaceful transition of power from his father?

We know someone funded the tournament in such a way that it would bring all the great houses...probably Tywin.  If Rhaegar and Tywin had planned this together, and the rebellion failed, Aerys would probably have been deposed anyway.  I do not think Aerys would survive as King...he may have lived had Rhaegar won...but he would have been removed from power for his madness.

If Rhaegar lived and became King (again, big "if"), what deal did he make with Tywin?  We know Tywin wanted him to wed Cersei previously, perhaps a betrothal to Viserys?  If Rhaegar loved Lyanna and she lived (would depend on the timing of the victory and if she would have access to a Maester) would he punish the Lords who sought to avenge the injustices (crimes, even) committed by Aerys?  If Lyanna lived and could speak to Ned, tell him the truth about what happened, would he still oppose Rhaegar? Doubtful.

I would think in under these circumstances (and this is all speculative of course) the new King would give them the opportunity to bend the knee.  If not, he would send them to the wall.  Based on what we know of him, he is not bloodthirsty.  

Once we get some more answers from GRRM we can discuss with more clarity, but this is the scenario I think most likely.  Just my opinion though!

[TMIFairy]

I do not understand Rheagar's behaviour during the rebellion.

He spends the first half of the fighting - early moves in the Stormlands and Vale, Robert's breakout west - out of KL. In the Tower of Joy breeding Lyanna? Wooing? Raping?

If he was harbouring plans of deposing his father why did he not join forces with the rebels? Not with Robert - as he had stolen his girlfriend - but with the other three?

Why - before the Battle of the Trident - Ruby Ford - had Rhaegar not talked with the four rebel leaders? Robert besides, the other three could be swayed:

- Ned gets amnesty and sister back and compensation for losses

- Jon gets amnesty and compensation for losses

- Hoster gets amnesty and compensation for losses

I would expect that those three Lords - if satisfied with Rheagar's terms, could sit on Robert and force him to play along. At worst Robert gets exiled, Ned shedding a tear and waving a hanky as Robert sails for Essos, persuaded to accept such an outcome by the "senior statesman" Jon (probably Hoster too). To avoid needless bloodshed, for the good of the Realm and all that ...

But ... that is possible only if Rheagar is "clean", relatively speaking, and can blame his father for the worse shit that happened. That Rheagar can say (prove) that Lyanna ran away with him willingly (Ned makes grim face) and bedded hm willingly (Ned proceeds to beat up Rheagar, albeit he is not in killing mode). Here Ned is the key player - if he can "pardon" Rheagar than I would expect Jon to go along, also brings in Hoster.

But - even if Lyanna went with Rheagar willingly - if she was unhappy to be bred to fulfill a prophecy - such an offer would not be possible. Once Ned speaks with Lyanna the rebellion breaks out again.

Of course, Rheagar can simply be a arrogant prick full of entitlement.

Just my musings and idle (wild) speculation.

[Ser Frasier of House Crane]

Aerys extinguishes all the rebel houses, root and stem.

[DarkBastard]

4 minutes ago, TMIFairy said:

I do not understand Rheagar's behaviour during the rebellion.

He spends the first half of the fighting - early moves in the Stormlands and Vale, Robert's breakout west - out of KL. In the Tower of Joy breeding Lyanna? Wooing? Raping?

If he was harbouring plans of deposing his father why did he not join forces with the rebels? Not with Robert - as he had stolen his girlfriend - but with the other three?

Why - before the Battle of the Trident - Ruby Ford - had Rhaegar not talked with the four rebel leaders? Robert besides, the other three could be swayed:

- Ned gets amnesty and sister back and compensation for losses

- Jon gets amnesty and compensation for losses

- Hoster gets amnesty and compensation for losses

I would expect that those three Lords - if satisfied with Rheagar's terms, could sit on Robert and force him to play along. At worst Robert gets exiled, Ned shedding a tear and waving a hanky as Robert sails for Essos, persuaded to accept such an outcome by the "senior statesman" Jon (probably Hoster too). To avoid needless bloodshed, for the good of the Realm and all that ...

But ... that is possible only if Rheagar is "clean", relatively speaking, and can blame his father for the worse shit that happened. That Rheagar can say (prove) that Lyanna ran away with him willingly (Ned makes grim face) and bedded hm willingly (Ned proceeds to beat up Rheagar, albeit he is not in killing mode). Here Ned is the key player - if he can "pardon" Rheagar than I would expect Jon to go along, also brings in Hoster.

But - even if Lyanna went with Rheagar willingly - if she was unhappy to be bred to fulfill a prophecy - such an offer would not be possible. Once Ned speaks with Lyanna the rebellion breaks out again.

Of course, Rheagar can simply be a arrogant prick full of entitlement.

Just my musings and idle (wild) speculation.

I think a request to talk would be a sign of weakness...if accepted at all.  Remember, the rebellion occurred not after Lyanna was kidnapped, but after the Starks were executed.  They rebelled against Aerys, not Rhaegar.  The rebels were done with Targaryen rule as a whole.  

Aerys wasn't always the "Mad" King either...he became mad over time.  I don't believe the rebels would have allowed Rhaegar to transition into power peacefully for fear that he would turn out the same.

Rhaegar would have to win first, then he could discuss things with the rebels on far better terms, and make concessions at that point if he desired.

[Prince Jon Targaryen]

Everyone's talking about how Rhaegar should eventually overthrow Aerys. But how? he can't kill Aerys right out the gate, there's the Kingsguard to worry about. Here's what I would do if I were him:

I've crunched the numbers and the Targs safely outnumber the rebels at the Trident. After Rhaegar kills Robert, he offers a truce to the surviving lords on one condition and they go along with it (***for reasons I discuss at the end of this post***). The truce is such: amnesty for all rebels, no killings, no murdering entire families, etc AS LONG AS these lords declare a "freeze" on Aerys as king, proclaiming he's unfit to be king and taking his power away for the time being AND CALL A GREAT COUNCIL. this way, they can decide what to do, with everyone, both rebels and loyalists. This eventually results in Rhaegar becoming king and everyone being relatively happy/not mad anymore. Rhaegar being a good person, and loved by the small folk, a lot of people are satisfied afterwards, although some (like Ned Stark) are still gonna hate the Targs forever.

Rhaegar is not insane. He seems to be a decent guy and is said by some that he would have made a better king that Robert or Aerys (see Barrister Selmy). Ergo, I have half a mind to think that he would be a good king. He may do the following.

-send a decent amount of rebel troops (or perhaps those without families) to the WALL. All sellswords he sends as well, any who wish to go join, and some wounded are sent as well. This well-needed bump in the numbers of the Night's watch is long over due. Less than a thousand men man the wall by 298 AC, so if Rhaegar sends a goodly amount to the Wall then they're well on their way to the pre-conquest levels of 10,000. 

-experiment with eggs like Aegon V? His sister Daenerys was able to, so maybe the gift could be with him too. Viserys isn't at Dragonstone and has a much better upbringing the the one he received on the one from Robert, so he could be fit to be with a dragon as well. Combine this with the whole "dragon has three heads" thing, ad the fact that Aemon thinks Daenerys has the potential to fulfill the prophecy, and Rhaegar, Viserys, and Daenerys, are your three heads!

-the realm still has a lot of gold in its coffers (which was later squandered by Robert) so we're good there. Rhaegar is smart enough to handle that. 

The only thing I'm worried about is if anyone still listens to Aerys. However, I think that since most of the Kingsguard is friends with Rhaegar, or prefers him to Aerys, they would obey Rhaegar for the time being.

***Tully only cares about this mess because his daughters are married to rebels, Jon cares because Aerys wants the heads of his foster kids Robert and Ned, and Eddard hates both Rhaegar and Aerys, for kidnapping his sister and ordering his family, reactively. Robert was the only one who hated Rhaegar, and Stark does't have enough men to go solo if Arryn and Tully decide to give up . HE's outnumbered and forced to go along with it. With my number crunching I did, comparing this to the battle of Hastings, Starks forces would be easily obliterated by the remaining Targs.

[Coolbeard the Exile]

If the loyalists win the battle of the Trident Rhaegar would go back to King's Landing and take the city by force with Tywin at his back and he would depose his father and reign.

[Rondo]

On 7/17/2017 at 4:18 PM, Prince Jon Targaryen said:

What do you guys think would happen if Robert's Rebellion failed? I've already written down some thoughts...

-Rhaegar goes home to King's Landing in triumph, but immediately gets to work in trying to depose his father.

-Aerys orders the deaths of Jon Arryn, Ned Stark, and Hoster Tully. Aerys would probably be pissed at Tywin Lannister for not helping during the Rebellion.

-The brothers or established heirs of the rebel lords take over (Stannis for Robert, Benjen for Ned, etc) but who for Jon Arryn???

Any other additions? I'd love to hear what other people think about this, I'm fascinated by alternate history and such.

King Aerys II always planned to disinherit Rhaegar.  Rhaegar was not going to inherit the throne.  Prince Viserys was the king's choice all along.  Aerys was in poor health.  It will be just a few  years before Viserys III inherits the throne. 

If Rhaegar had used his head instead of his heart he would have won the battle of the trident.  He had superior numbers.  But he chose to be gallant and brave.  Then he died.  Tywin would support the stronger side.  Tywin would back Aerys if the rebels had lost at the trident.  Aerys would correctly sign a Writ of Attainder to take the Stormlands away from the Baratheons.  Stannis and Renly would take up an occupation.  Renly could  open up a hair salon in K/L.  Stannis could take up farming.

[Graydon Hicks]

On 7/18/2017 at 4:08 AM, Lord Vance II said:

Honestly, I don't know if Rhaegar killing Robert is enough to end the rebellion. Four kingdoms are in full-blown rebellion and the even though Robert was the figurehead, Jon Arryn was the architect (with some Hoster maybe). I really don't want to start a troop number clusterf*ck, but I think it's key to the discussion. If the Rebels still have a strong army after the defeat, the rebellion lives. 

Another key thing is what Tywin does. It's easy to say after Robert dies he swoops in for the Targs....but what if he still goes against the Targs? Roberts death and a defeat at the trident would create a vacuum of leadership and Tywin could stand to do better in a new regime than the old that has already screwed him. What if the Lannister army strikes Rhaegars as they fall back to Kings Landing? I guess in this scenario Jon Arryn would probably be King, but sickly weird Lysa could easily die and Cersei become queen....

But if it did all end at the Trident with Rhaegar winning, I think he would try to move fast to pardon the rebels in exchange for peace. Could he possibly explain his "abduction" of Lyanna to Ned? (why didn't he in the first place, honestly).

he might have, or lyanna, sent a message, only for it to go astray or get intercepted. there are several theories concerning petyr baelish maybe having a hand in that as a ploy to remove brandon stark from his path of wooing catelyn.

[Graydon Hicks]

On 7/18/2017 at 11:02 AM, TMIFairy said:

I do not understand Rheagar's behaviour during the rebellion.

He spends the first half of the fighting - early moves in the Stormlands and Vale, Robert's breakout west - out of KL. In the Tower of Joy breeding Lyanna? Wooing? Raping?

If he was harbouring plans of deposing his father why did he not join forces with the rebels? Not with Robert - as he had stolen his girlfriend - but with the other three?

Why - before the Battle of the Trident - Ruby Ford - had Rhaegar not talked with the four rebel leaders? Robert besides, the other three could be swayed:

- Ned gets amnesty and sister back and compensation for losses

- Jon gets amnesty and compensation for losses

- Hoster gets amnesty and compensation for losses

I would expect that those three Lords - if satisfied with Rheagar's terms, could sit on Robert and force him to play along. At worst Robert gets exiled, Ned shedding a tear and waving a hanky as Robert sails for Essos, persuaded to accept such an outcome by the "senior statesman" Jon (probably Hoster too). To avoid needless bloodshed, for the good of the Realm and all that ...

But ... that is possible only if Rheagar is "clean", relatively speaking, and can blame his father for the worse shit that happened. That Rheagar can say (prove) that Lyanna ran away with him willingly (Ned makes grim face) and bedded hm willingly (Ned proceeds to beat up Rheagar, albeit he is not in killing mode). Here Ned is the key player - if he can "pardon" Rheagar than I would expect Jon to go along, also brings in Hoster.

But - even if Lyanna went with Rheagar willingly - if she was unhappy to be bred to fulfill a prophecy - such an offer would not be possible. Once Ned speaks with Lyanna the rebellion breaks out again.

Of course, Rheagar can simply be a arrogant prick full of entitlement.

Just my musings and idle (wild) speculation.

well, he might have been hiding lyanna to keep her safe from aerys. aerys already held elia and the children not just as insuring dornish assistnace, but probably rhaegar's good behavior. if robert had died? i can see rhaegar quickly sueing for peace with ned, hoster, and jon. they seem more rational and level headed than robert. with him as the figure head for the army, at was his fury at the rhaegar that seemed to driving force for his forces. but i read in the world book that aerys feared rhaegar as much he did everyone else, with his paranoia so bad after duskendale. i can easily see the mad king trying to burn the city anyway if rhaegar returned triumphant from the field, seeing rhaegar returning with an army as a coup against him. so jaime would probably have to still kill him.

tywin is a big question. with his behavior and ambition, would he have sided with rhaegar, whether or not he joined the rebels after killing robert, or would he have headed straight for kingslanding to take it before rhaegar arrived? that would depend on if he wanted to gamble on the chance to place his own family on the throne.

depending on that would determine whether elia and the children live. and how quickly rhaegar could move after the battle would determine whether or not lyanna survived. if he could make peace with the survivng rebel lords fast enough, then return to the capital and deal with that fall out with his father, then he, or ned, might be able to head for dorne. maybe faster, since rhaegar would be able to send a raven or rider to storms end to call of tyrell, instead of going himself. that might lead to lyanna reaching proper aid quickly enough to save her life from birthing fever.

rhaegar might, id even say likely, pardon eddard, maybe jon arryn. hoster, i dont know. what ive read about his actions during the rebellion seem to indicate his involvement being more political than ned, jon and robert. they seem to be personal, but hosters seem to be about taking advantage of the situation to improve his houses station. not sure. how tywin is treated would be based on whether or not he decided to take the throne for himself while everyone else was fighting at the trident.

for how jon s. is treated would be based on whether or not lyanna survived. if she did, i can see her and jon living in the red keep with rhaegar. elia is dornish, so her reaction is a little hard to figure, considering dornish views of relationships. she could be very open to lyanna being part of the marriage, or she might just take the children and go back to sunspear. if lyanna died,  i can see jon either living in the red keep, if elia was feeling forgiving of him, again playing to the dornish in her (this part i feel more certain on, as dorn is definitely far more lenient in their treatment of bastards than the andals of the central kingdoms), or he might be sent to foster in winterfell once he reached an appropriate age.

rhaella and the younger targ sibs? i can see the queen mother staying in the red keep, with a much better chance of surviving the birth of daenerys. would viserys still crazy like his daddy, that would depend on how much aerys worked to shape him growing up. i read somewhere that the king worked to keep rhaegar away from his younger brother, so he just might be. dany would likely be more gentle and kind than her post dothraki self, but less timid than pre-dothraki. maybe a personality similiar to what we have seen in sansa, or maybe margery?

stannis would likely be lord of storms end, i also read that he was of two minds concerning his loyalty to robert. he seemed to have torn between filial loyalty to robert, and loyalty to his king. so he might be less of a hassel to sway to kneel to rhaegar than we might have expected.