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What if Roberts' Rebellion failed??


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7 hours ago, Renly's Banana said:

Regardless of who won, Aerys would not have remained the king for long. Rhaegar had been planning for a while to usurp the throne from his father by way of a council. [...]

Actually, I think that a Targaryen victory at this point would reinforce Aerys's position in regards to Rhaegar for many reasons, the least of those being the fact that he was holding Rhaegar's family as hostages. Mainly it's that after a successful put down of a rebellion, a second one will not find enough ground to step on. Plus, the idea that the status quo is invincible -which would inevitably be re-established in the minds of lords (and smallfolk)- would thin out the support that Rhaegar might have hoped to get. IMO it's not unlikely at all that Rhaegar would be the next one to face Aerys's champion.

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Really depends on who is king; Rhaegar or Aerys. 

Aerys would go on a killing spree, that's what caused the rebellion in the first place whilst Rhaegar would try to appease as many as possible whilst having Robert, Ned, and Jon either executed or sent to the Wall. 

 

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18 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Robert was their figurehead, but they were high lords themselves. You really think they would have fallen apart without Robert? They fought just fine without him. Robert was a fugitive and in hiding, when Ned rescued him. They could have chosen Stannis to take the throne after him.

As for not having grievances with Rhaegar who started this whole mess? Jon's nephew died with Brandon. And Lyanna was still missing. She may have gone with Rhaegar willingly or she may have not. Ned may have known about it or not. It still gives Ned a pretty good reason to be very pissed at Rhaegar.

What makes you think that Rhaegar was willing to make peace in the first place? Or able to? The others couldn't afford Aerys to remain alive and there is no indication that Rhaegar was willing to depose his father through military means.

I think you may have confused the attitudes of fifteen years past with those of that day. Ned did not hate a man fifteen years dead whose son he had raised. That does not mean he did not want him dead at the time. I know people tend to think of Ned as a sap, but this was the guy who was about to kill LF in the street.

Things had gone way too far for peaceful settlement. Things had gone way too far for a peaceful settlement.

actually, most of my opinion of Rhaegar, and what he might or might not have done, is coming from the world book. it seems to describe as a man who sought to remove hisown crazy father from power, i think that the rebel lords, if robert was removed, would be his best chance. i never said they would fall apart without robert, just that their beef wasnt with rhaegar, but with aerys. it was robert who had the rage hard on for rhaegar.

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18 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Robert was their figurehead, but they were high lords themselves. You really think they would have fallen apart without Robert? They fought just fine without him. Robert was a fugitive and in hiding, when Ned rescued him. They could have chosen Stannis to take the throne after him.

As for not having grievances with Rhaegar who started this whole mess? Jon's nephew died with Brandon. And Lyanna was still missing. She may have gone with Rhaegar willingly or she may have not. Ned may have known about it or not. It still gives Ned a pretty good reason to be very pissed at Rhaegar.

What makes you think that Rhaegar was willing to make peace in the first place? Or able to? The others couldn't afford Aerys to remain alive and there is no indication that Rhaegar was willing to depose his father through military means.

I think you may have confused the attitudes of fifteen years past with those of that day. Ned did not hate a man fifteen years dead whose son he had raised. That does not mean he did not want him dead at the time. I know people tend to think of Ned as a sap, but this was the guy who was about to kill LF in the street.

Things had gone way too far for peaceful settlement. Things had gone way too far for a peaceful settlement.

actually, most of my opinion of Rhaegar, and what he might or might not have done, is coming from the world book. it seems to describe as a man who sought to remove his own crazy father from power, i think that the rebel lords, if robert was removed, would be his best chance. i never said they would fall apart without robert, just that their beef wasnt with rhaegar, but with aerys. it was robert who had the rage hard on for rhaegar.

if robert had died, and rhaegar never sued for peace, yes, the rebel lords would have still pressed the war. im just saying that with out robert, the chance of a peace being reached between rhaegar and the rebels would be a strong possibility. yes ned would demand for his sister, and i can see rheagar giving stark assurances that lyanna was safe, was well when last he saw her. he might have even told ned to go on down to dorne to retrieve her, given him a letter to hand to the kingsguard that guarded her. 

18 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

The others couldn't afford Aerys to remain alive and there is no indication that Rhaegar was willing to depose his father through military means

rhaegar had been working to gain support to remove aerys before the war started. thats why he organised harrenhal in the first place, as a cover to talk to nobles and gain the support he needed. you dont just walk into the throne room with a hand full of men and say that king is no longer king. ned tried that, see where it landed him. he would have needed an army in place to help remove those loyal to aerys, and enforce that decision until aerys could be safely locked away. 

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Aerys was mad but he wasn’t naïve. He knew that Rhaegar was about to make his move. That is why he personally attended to the tourney of Harrenhal, thwarting the crown prince plans for a possible coup d’etat. He also made sure that Elia and her children remained in KL under his direct control. There’s no way Dorne would have marched alongside Rhaegar if they believed their princess life was at stake.


No one can deny that Aerys suffered from Paranoia. However, this paranoia seems to vanish in thin wind when the Lannisters are concerned.  Aerys threatened Dorne with Elia which forced them to go to war. Strangely enough, he refused to do the same with Jamie that despite him being far important for his own father then Elia was for the Martells. If Elia died, then the Martells would have survived. If Jamie died, then Tywin’s sole heir would have become the imp, a person the old lion hated.  Such inconsistency is not an exception but the rule. Jamie was allowed to stay extremely close to the king despite the latter suffering from a phobia for blades. Towards the end of the war, Aerys opened KL’s gate to Tywin, that despite the fact that Robert had won the war and the lion have stayed neutral throughout the entire campaign. Why would a man which such paranioa act that way?


Let’s have a second look at the war of the trident. During that war, Rhaegar’s loyalists crushed with Robert’s rebels in a battle that was pretty even. The former had a slight numeric advantage while the latter were war veterans. However there is some things that intrigues me in that particular battle


a-    Aerys wasn’t at the Trident. Some might suggest that it was due to his fear for blades which is fair enough. However, that doesn’t justify his presence at Harrenhal despite accusations of him being surrounded among enemies same as the battle of the trident
b-    The Targ loyalist army at the Trident relied heavily on Rhaegar’s men. A third of that army were Dornishmen + there was a heavy presence of troops who participated in the battle of the bells (Connington’s men). The rest were made up by Crownlands men and soldiers from the Reach. Having said that Mace, Randyll and co seemed to have stirred away from that massacre, which suggests that the army was centred around Rhaegar and his own men. If they were defeated then so would their rebellion.
c-     It was too easy for the 6ft+ battle hardened monster and his warhammer to find Rhaegar in battlefield. That is strange considering that unlike the rebel army (who relied on 3 heads ie Ned, Robert and Jon) the Targ army relied heavily on the crown prince. Considering that Rhaegar was hardly an expert swordfighter you would think that the royalists would keep Rhaegar as far from the battlefield as possible. But that wasn’t the case
d-    How convenient that battle was from Aerys perspective if both players annihilated each other. Most Dornishmen army was wiped out, Lewin died too and so did Rhaegar. Meanwhile the bulk of Reach army (ie no connections to Rhaegar) was making bbqs at the Stormlands and princess obsessed Tywin was sitting comfortable at CR. Cersei would have been a great queen for the new crown prince Viserys wouldn’t she?

So here is what I think happened. Aerys was well aware that Rhaegar was a turncoat. He offered the lion a potential marriage between Cersei and Viserys in exchange for his commitment in wiping out the victor once the dust settled. Unfortunately both players miscalculated Robert’s charisma in turning former enemies into friends in a blink of an eye. Before the old lion could complete his plan, Robert had already persuaded Rhaegar’s army to bend the knee boosting his army enough to go toe to toe against the lions. That forced Tywin to quickly change his plans, march to KL and remove every shred of evidence of a possible deal between him and the doomed king. 


If Robert died then his charisma would have died with him. The lion (aided by the Freys) would surprise both the heavily wounded rebels and Rhaegar's loyalists, wiping them away completely. Tywin would then march to KL triumphantly in the same way he did at the battle of blackwater's bay and in few months time, his daughter would marry the new crown prince Viserys. Elia and co would be kept as hostages to keep Dorne in line. 

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5 hours ago, devilish said:

Aerys was mad but he wasn’t naïve. He knew that Rhaegar was about to make his move. That is why he personally attended to the tourney of Harrenhal, thwarting the crown prince plans for a possible coup d’etat. He also made sure that Elia and her children remained in KL under his direct control. There’s no way Dorne would have marched alongside Rhaegar if they believed their princess life was at stake.


No one can deny that Aerys suffered from Paranoia. However, this paranoia seems to vanish in thin wind when the Lannisters are concerned.  Aerys threatened Dorne with Elia which forced them to go to war. Strangely enough, he refused to do the same with Jamie that despite him being far important for his own father then Elia was for the Martells. If Elia died, then the Martells would have survived. If Jamie died, then Tywin’s sole heir would have become the imp, a person the old lion hated.  Such inconsistency is not an exception but the rule. Jamie was allowed to stay extremely close to the king despite the latter suffering from a phobia for blades. Towards the end of the war, Aerys opened KL’s gate to Tywin, that despite the fact that Robert had won the war and the lion have stayed neutral throughout the entire campaign. Why would a man which such paranioa act that way?


Let’s have a second look at the war of the trident. During that war, Rhaegar’s loyalists crushed with Robert’s rebels in a battle that was pretty even. The former had a slight numeric advantage while the latter were war veterans. However there is some things that intrigues me in that particular battle


a-    Aerys wasn’t at the Trident. Some might suggest that it was due to his fear for blades which is fair enough. However, that doesn’t justify his presence at Harrenhal despite accusations of him being surrounded among enemies same as the battle of the trident
b-    The Targ loyalist army at the Trident relied heavily on Rhaegar’s men. A third of that army were Dornishmen + there was a heavy presence of troops who participated in the battle of the bells (Connington’s men). The rest were made up by Crownlands men and soldiers from the Reach. Having said that Mace, Randyll and co seemed to have stirred away from that massacre, which suggests that the army was centred around Rhaegar and his own men. If they were defeated then so would their rebellion.
c-     It was too easy for the 6ft+ battle hardened monster and his warhammer to find Rhaegar in battlefield. That is strange considering that unlike the rebel army (who relied on 3 heads ie Ned, Robert and Jon) the Targ army relied heavily on the crown prince. Considering that Rhaegar was hardly an expert swordfighter you would think that the royalists would keep Rhaegar as far from the battlefield as possible. But that wasn’t the case
d-    How convenient that battle was from Aerys perspective if both players annihilated each other. Most Dornishmen army was wiped out, Lewin died too and so did Rhaegar. Meanwhile the bulk of Reach army (ie no connections to Rhaegar) was making bbqs at the Stormlands and princess obsessed Tywin was sitting comfortable at CR. Cersei would have been a great queen for the new crown prince Viserys wouldn’t she?

So here is what I think happened. Aerys was well aware that Rhaegar was a turncoat. He offered the lion a potential marriage between Cersei and Viserys in exchange for his commitment in wiping out the victor once the dust settled. Unfortunately both players miscalculated Robert’s charisma in turning former enemies into friends in a blink of an eye. Before the old lion could complete his plan, Robert had already persuaded Rhaegar’s army to bend the knee boosting his army enough to go toe to toe against the lions. That forced Tywin to quickly change his plans, march to KL and remove every shred of evidence of a possible deal between him and the doomed king. 


If Robert died then his charisma would have died with him. The lion (aided by the Freys) would surprise both the heavily wounded rebels and Rhaegar's loyalists, wiping them away completely. Tywin would then march to KL triumphantly in the same way he did at the battle of blackwater's bay and in few months time, his daughter would marry the new crown prince Viserys. Elia and co would be kept as hostages to keep Dorne in line. 

Why would Aerys be at the Trident? He was old, infirm, insane and grotesque. Plus he wanted to be in place to be "reborn" and burn down KL.The army relied no more heavily on Rhaegar and the CL troops than it did the Dornish, the JonCon remnants, or the reach soldiers. What massacre did Randyll and Mace shy away from? Surely not the Trident. That wasn't a massacre. Mace (and Tarly) might well have decided to stick around SE because it would give them the best leverage if Rhaegar lost (we got your brothers or we didn't fight you). Ol Aerys might have ordered them to besiege SE and do nothing else. Rhaegar was a pretty good fighter. He might not be up to Robert's level but his jousting ability was top notch and he's described as a most puissant/good knight by several sources (worldbook, Bary, Jorah). He's not exactly chopped liver. And based on the information we have it's likely that Rhaegar brought the reserve in to save the battle. Three of his commanders (KG) were either dead or incapacitated. Jason Mallister cut down three of his other lords as well. A monarch or prince being in the thick of battle and killed or capture is hardly something new or rare. Henry V got a blow to the head defending his wounded brother. Several peers of the blood got captured. At Crecy (or Poitiers), King John and the crown prince were captured too. Those two fighting each other is unlikely, but it's also a fantasy novel. Poetic license has to count at some point.

It would be fortuitous if both of them died but the rebels were in a much better position to keep fighting as they wouldn't have been leaderless. The royal army almost assuredly would have been.

There is literally no evidence Aerys offered Tywin anything. We hear from Kevan how he didn't ever send a response to KL from Aerys' summons. We know that Kevan was thinking about how many lives could have been saved if Cersei married Rhaegar. Aerys didn't even know Tywin had left CR until he was at the gates. Tywin might have definitely been weighing which side to jump in on but we literally nothing but poor supposition to support that he already had a deal on the table. Same with Frey.

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23 hours ago, Graydon Hicks said:

actually, most of my opinion of Rhaegar, and what he might or might not have done, is coming from the world book. it seems to describe as a man who sought to remove hisown crazy father from power, i think that the rebel lords, if robert was removed, would be his best chance. i never said they would fall apart without robert, just that their beef wasnt with rhaegar, but with aerys. it was robert who had the rage hard on for rhaegar.

Rhaegar wanting to remove his dad from power was pretty much confirmed in the canon books too.

I wonder if his plans were well known by the other lords, and if that encouraged the Rebellion that crushed his family? It would be ironic,no?

20 minutes ago, Graydon Hicks said:

random question, but if cersie married rhaegar, would joffrey still have happened? i mean, would she still have been sleeping with her brother jaime, even though rhaegar was much more preferable to her than robert? would the golden shit still have been born?

Oh, I think it's a given that she'd still be sleeping with Jaime. The question of whether or not she'd birth Rhaegar's children is much trickier to answer.

I suppose it depends on how deep you think her Lannister-pride goes. I think, eventually, she'd grow disdainful of Rhaegar, once she discovers he's just a man - not the godly figure she imagined all her life, and refuse to sully her line with his unworthy blood. But I can't decide at what point that happens.

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31 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Rhaegar wanting to remove his dad from power was pretty much confirmed in the canon books too.

I wonder if his plans were well known by the other lords, and if that encouraged the Rebellion that crushed his family? It would be ironic,no?

Oh, I think it's a given that she'd still be sleeping with Jaime. The question of whether or not she'd birth Rhaegar's children is much trickier to answer.

I suppose it depends on how deep you think her Lannister-pride goes. I think, eventually, she'd grow disdainful of Rhaegar, once she discovers he's just a man - not the godly figure she imagined all her life, and refuse to sully her line with his unworthy blood. But I can't decide at what point that happens.

i dont think that it would her pride saying that lannister blood is better than targaryen blood. but i think rhaegar might grow distant with her. it comes to me from other sources that i am forbidden to mention, but i get the impression that while he would be a better king than robert, he would not be the most visibly caring husband or father. that he would distant, kind of cold, to his children. not that he wouldnt love them. but maybe hes afraid he might end emulating his father, or the burdens of the throne, which i think he would shoulder instead of handing off to his hand, would keep him aloof from his family. by the time he could interact with the kids more regularly, he was so used to that distance that he didnt know how to breach it, so he ends up loving his children from afar, and publicly is very formal and cold with them.

that lack of affection would definitely sway cersie to return to her brother's arms, once she realised she wasnt the object of rhaegar's ever waking thought. her narcissism would demand nothing less. i can still see a joffrey being born, and being a golden shit, of her and jaime. but if she had a tommen and myrcella, maybe they might be rhaegar's. i can accept that. they arent the monsters that joff is. and i can still jon being hated, even if raised in KL. cersie would push for jon to removed from succession, even if rhaegar publicly proclaimed him legit, whispering in joff's ear that he is the rightful heior, even if aegon is still alive. she and joff and viserys would call jon a bastard. viserys, if he is still power hungry little ass that he is in cannon, might complain and whine about his rights and wants. i always found him to be remarkably similar to joff in that regard. would aegon and rhaenys hate jon? i leave that to you think about. maybe that hate him for elia being dead, blame him and lyanna for that crime. maybe they dont, and are only cold to him, or aegon acts the theon around jon.

 i see jon avoiding crowds and attention, sticking to the back ground and corners. wears a lot of black. maybe finds friends in young daenerys? they are very close in age. and he might get along better with catelyn and his kin in the north, than he ever does with those in KL.

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7 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Chronologically old? But I stand my my description in light of his appearance

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/images/2/21/The_mad_king_twoiaf_art.png

Old was a poor choice of word - there are many better terms to use for a 40 year old who is not fit for field duty.

By same token post-Ramsay Theon is old too.

 

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Just now, TMIFairy said:

Old was a poor choice of word - there are many better terms to use for a 40 year old who is not fit for field duty.

By same token post-Ramsay Theon is old too.

 

lets say that aeyrs was unsuited for militray life after duskendale. that kind of experience can age someone beyond their years. and it was what brought his paranoia screaming to the surface.

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2 minutes ago, Graydon Hicks said:

i dont think that it would her pride saying that lannister blood is better than targaryen blood.

[snip'd for length]

Wait...so in your hypothetical universe, Elia is dead but her children are alive, and Jon is an acknowledged bastard? Yeah, you'll get no dragon-lion babies in that situation. She wouldn't have to push to eliminate Jon from succession because he's a bastard - there'd be no point. But she'd definitely arrange for Aegon and Rhaenys to have "accidents". Jon, too, if anybody insists on taking him to KL.

Also, I think Cersei would have never left Jaime in the first place, regardless of how her husband treats her. She sees their bond as spiritual. To leave Jaime would be to leave part of herself behind. After all, she slept with him the night before(?) her wedding, before she started hating Robert.

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regardless if elia's children are alive or dead. cersie would definitely focus her hate, and joff's, on jon. he is older. if he stayed a bastard, his mere existence would be considered a threat to her and joffrey, even he was sent to winterfell. part of that is the typical andal view of bastards, and as a targaryen one, with the kind of family support eddard would give him, he would certainly been seen by cersie as a rival to joff's claim to the throne. if was he was legit, cersie would push for him to be removed, that he must be a bastard and only legit by decree, and that the throne should be joffrey's by right. lood at what she and joffrey did to all roberts bastards in cannon. sure, that might have been more to eliminate the proof that joff wasnt a baratheon, getting rid of the evidence of the baratheon appearance being passed on. but it also indicates that the lannisters saw those bastards as threats to joff's claim.   

i dont doubt that she woul stay with jaime, but her disdain for rhaegar would start with his aloofness, for lack of a better word. thenshe might start her plotting to prematurely put the golden shit on the throne, like she did in cannon. look

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7 hours ago, TMIFairy said:

Old was a poor choice of word - there are many better terms to use for a 40 year old who is not fit for field duty.

By same token post-Ramsay Theon is old too.

Someone whose body is physically aged in terms of condition far faster than their chronological age would fit the bill for me. I'd include Theon in there too, yes. Aegon III would be classified in that as well. I can't think of any others off the top of my head.

But yes the overaching point being that Aerys II was uniquely ill-suited to campaign, being that he was physically infirm, insane, psychologically unable to be around swords or cutting instruments, and couldn't hold a weapon if he tried.

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Robert would be dead. Rheagar would probably still want his father off the throne but he would likely be very cautious. Tywin would still hate Aery's, consequently conspire with rheagar to get rid of him. Has Eddard died too in this scenario? If has then they'd likely give the north to either another one of the northern lords or one of his allies. In both cases, I could see some sought of war for the north. The Tully's may also lose the Riverlands to maybe the Freys?  

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