What if Roberts' Rebellion failed??

[Graydon Hicks]

13 hours ago, Robert Baratheon's hammer said:

Robert would be dead. Rheagar would probably still want his father off the throne but he would likely be very cautious. Tywin would still hate Aery's, consequently conspire with rheagar to get rid of him. Has Eddard died too in this scenario? If has then they'd likely give the north to either another one of the northern lords or one of his allies. In both cases, I could see some sought of war for the north. The Tully's may also lose the Riverlands to maybe the Freys?  

i just dont think that rhaegar would have punished ned or arryn, for trying to do what he was planning on doing, for very similar reasons. hoster? i dont know enough about his reasons for joining the rebel lords to be certain what would happen to him. maybe the tullys do lose the position of LP to another loyal house. we say the freys, but what about the darry's? we know they were, and might still be, targ loyalists. i think ned would still face discontent in the north, but i dont think it would erupt into a full blown uprising. the north is far to associating the rule of the north with winterfell, and the ruling house of the north with the starks, to try and overthrow the family. not unless roose bolton managed to unite enough of the northern house under him, and with a living stark male in winterfell, i dont think he could pull it off.

[devilish]

On 25/07/2017 at 7:40 PM, Universal Sword Donor said:

Why would Aerys be at the Trident? He was old, infirm, insane and grotesque. Plus he wanted to be in place to be "reborn" and burn down KL.The army relied no more heavily on Rhaegar and the CL troops than it did the Dornish, the JonCon remnants, or the reach soldiers. What massacre did Randyll and Mace shy away from? Surely not the Trident. That wasn't a massacre. Mace (and Tarly) might well have decided to stick around SE because it would give them the best leverage if Rhaegar lost (we got your brothers or we didn't fight you). Ol Aerys might have ordered them to besiege SE and do nothing else. Rhaegar was a pretty good fighter. He might not be up to Robert's level but his jousting ability was top notch and he's described as a most puissant/good knight by several sources (worldbook, Bary, Jorah). He's not exactly chopped liver. And based on the information we have it's likely that Rhaegar brought the reserve in to save the battle. Three of his commanders (KG) were either dead or incapacitated. Jason Mallister cut down three of his other lords as well. A monarch or prince being in the thick of battle and killed or capture is hardly something new or rare. Henry V got a blow to the head defending his wounded brother. Several peers of the blood got captured. At Crecy (or Poitiers), King John and the crown prince were captured too. Those two fighting each other is unlikely, but it's also a fantasy novel. Poetic license has to count at some point.

It would be fortuitous if both of them died but the rebels were in a much better position to keep fighting as they wouldn't have been leaderless. The royal army almost assuredly would have been.

There is literally no evidence Aerys offered Tywin anything. We hear from Kevan how he didn't ever send a response to KL from Aerys' summons. We know that Kevan was thinking about how many lives could have been saved if Cersei married Rhaegar. Aerys didn't even know Tywin had left CR until he was at the gates. Tywin might have definitely been weighing which side to jump in on but we literally nothing but poor supposition to support that he already had a deal on the table. Same with Frey.

 

Aerys was 40 years old, who was still able to have children (Danny) and disrupt coup d'etat (Harrenhal). Having the king at the Trident would have been a massive boost to the army and would have acted as a massive condemnation towards the rebels actions. King Henry's presence (the weakest of all English kings) at Ludlow was enough for some of the Duke of York's noblemen to rethink their allegiance and defy the rebel duke

However Aerys was not the only big name missing the fight. Mace Tyrell, Randyll Tarly and Jamie Lannister weren't there. Instead we see an army whose mostly lead and made up of Rhaegar's men. Out of 40k, 10k were Dornishmen lead by Lewyn Martell who also ended up killed alongside Darry another of Rhaegar's men. Other forces included the ones who participated in the battle of the bells ie Connington's men. That war was supposed to determine the destiny of the crown and yet, the most some of the most prestigious chess pieces werent there including Aerys, his hand of the King, his former hand of the king + his son, the commander of the KG, the general who gave Robert his only defeat and the LP of the most powerful Targ loyalist region.

Tywin's actions were erratic at best. His last years as HOTK were humiliating up until he retired to CR. That occurred once it became obvious that Cersei can never marry the crown prince. Yet, despite having the men to tip the course of battle and earn Robert's favour he refused to engage against the mad king up until he flipped only to commit the biggest crime in Westeros, something, that could have costed his life (if Ned had his way). Aerys, on the other hand, kept threatening and killing all people around him from the Dornish right to Rhaegar himself (ie his children stinks of Dorne). His paranioa reached such a level that he ordered Arryn to execute his two wards forcing the old righteous man to rebellion. Yet, it didn't crossed his mind to force the old lion to war by threatening Jamie. Quite the contrary he kept Jamie very close to him (the man was terrified of betrayers) and went Tywin approached KL with an army he went on opening the gates. That doesn't make sense.

So what do I think would have happened if Rhaegar won?

a- Considering the balance between the two armies it would still be a massacre (ie 1/2 of the army will be either wiped out or too injured to fight)

b- Unlike Rhaegar who were fighting in hostile land, the rebels would find refuge in the Riverlands. The land is filled with impregnable castles. Rhaegar would want to make sure that neither Ned nor Jon can find their way to the Vale or the North which means that he would lay siege to 2-3 of these castles (whom he's confident that Ned/Jon reside in) and to the Vale/North borders.

c- With his army spread so thin, Rhaegar would be easy prey to Tywin's + Walder's combined force.  Tywin would defeat Rhaegar, he would bring him to KL in chains and Aerys would accuse him of treason. Tywin would resume his role of HOTK and Cersei would marry Viserys with Aerys keeping Elia and her children as hostages just in case Dorne had still enough fuel in the tank to engage into a war.

I agree that there is no evidence of such a plan. There again, its very difficult to bring in such evidence considered that Tywin took the bother of going full Castamere in KL. That does remind me of a whitewash action to me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

4 hours ago, devilish said:

 

Aerys was 40 years old, who was still able to have children (Danny) and disrupt coup d'etat (Harrenhal). Having the king at the Trident would have been a massive boost to the army and would have acted as a massive condemnation towards the rebels actions. King Henry's presence (the weakest of all English kings) at Ludlow was enough for some of the Duke of York's noblemen to rethink their allegiance and defy the rebel duke

However Aerys was not the only big name missing the fight. Mace Tyrell, Randyll Tarly and Jamie Lannister weren't there. Instead we see an army whose mostly lead and made up of Rhaegar's men. Out of 40k, 10k were Dornishmen lead by Lewyn Martell who also ended up killed alongside Darry another of Rhaegar's men. Other forces included the ones who participated in the battle of the bells ie Connington's men. That war was supposed to determine the destiny of the crown and yet, the most some of the most prestigious chess pieces werent there including Aerys, his hand of the King, his former hand of the king + his son, the commander of the KG, the general who gave Robert his only defeat and the LP of the most powerful Targ loyalist region.

Tywin's actions were erratic at best. His last years as HOTK were humiliating up until he retired to CR. That occurred once it became obvious that Cersei can never marry the crown prince. Yet, despite having the men to tip the course of battle and earn Robert's favour he refused to engage against the mad king up until he flipped only to commit the biggest crime in Westeros, something, that could have costed his life (if Ned had his way). Aerys, on the other hand, kept threatening and killing all people around him from the Dornish right to Rhaegar himself (ie his children stinks of Dorne). His paranioa reached such a level that he ordered Arryn to execute his two wards forcing the old righteous man to rebellion. Yet, it didn't crossed his mind to force the old lion to war by threatening Jamie. Quite the contrary he kept Jamie very close to him (the man was terrified of betrayers) and went Tywin approached KL with an army he went on opening the gates. That doesn't make sense.

So what do I think would have happened if Rhaegar won?

a- Considering the balance between the two armies it would still be a massacre (ie 1/2 of the army will be either wiped out or too injured to fight)

b- Unlike Rhaegar who were fighting in hostile land, the rebels would find refuge in the Riverlands. The land is filled with impregnable castles. Rhaegar would want to make sure that neither Ned nor Jon can find their way to the Vale or the North which means that he would lay siege to 2-3 of these castles (whom he's confident that Ned/Jon reside in) and to the Vale/North borders.

c- With his army spread so thin, Rhaegar would be easy prey to Tywin's + Walder's combined force.  Tywin would defeat Rhaegar, he would bring him to KL in chains and Aerys would accuse him of treason. Tywin would resume his role of HOTK and Cersei would marry Viserys with Aerys keeping Elia and her children as hostages just in case Dorne had still enough fuel in the tank to engage into a war.

I agree that there is no evidence of such a plan. There again, its very difficult to bring in such evidence considered that Tywin took the bother of going full Castamere in KL. That does remind me of a whitewash action to me.

Aerys being at the battle would have undermined his authority and been an awful idea (like Harrenhal was). Jaime was kept at KL by Aerys and Rhaegar wouldn't overrule him, because it was a crutch for Aerys. We can't account for the motivations of Tarly or Mace at this point. Tywin was completely alienated from Aerys at this point and we know this from two POVs. The three KGs were in Dorne on Rhaegar's orders.

This spin is crackpot. Rhaegar looking to overthrow Aerys *after* the Trident makes plenty of sense and he might have been in league with other lords to lead a great council, which we know from a, once again, POV chapter. Rhaegar isn't going to allow a blatant challenge to the monarchy if he intends to depose or severely limit his father's access to power (acting as regent). 

Of course Tywin's acts are whitewashing. We hear it out of Tywin's mouth

“We had come late to Robert’s cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert’s relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar’s children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he saw himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children.”

[devilish]

5 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Aerys being at the battle would have undermined his authority and been an awful idea (like Harrenhal was). Jaime was kept at KL by Aerys and Rhaegar wouldn't overrule him, because it was a crutch for Aerys. We can't account for the motivations of Tarly or Mace at this point. Tywin was completely alienated from Aerys at this point and we know this from two POVs. The three KGs were in Dorne on Rhaegar's orders.

This spin is crackpot. Rhaegar looking to overthrow Aerys *after* the Trident makes plenty of sense and he might have been in league with other lords to lead a great council, which we know from a, once again, POV chapter. Rhaegar isn't going to allow a blatant challenge to the monarchy if he intends to depose or severely limit his father's access to power (acting as regent). 

Of course Tywin's acts are whitewashing. We hear it out of Tywin's mouth

“We had come late to Robert’s cause. It was necessary to demonstrate our loyalty. When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert’s relief was palpable. As stupid as he was, even he knew that Rhaegar’s children had to die if his throne was ever to be secure. Yet he saw himself as a hero, and heroes do not kill children.”

Aerys in battefield would secure that Rhaegar won't get the glory and army he needed to oust Aerys. The victory would be Aerys not Rhaegar's. Which makes it strange that he wasn't there. Unless of course Aerys had that covered, which he probably did considering that the crown prince's plan to oust Aerys was a known secret Aerys knew about.