UK Politics - summer edition

[mormont]

I mean, blaming Europe for everything is basically a summary of our entire membership of the EU to date, so that would be apt.

Walking away without a deal may be favoured by some in the Tory party but I can't believe it's favoured by as many as it would have to be for the infighting to be staged. Brexit is going to be disastrous: walking away will make it worse. I can believe that non-reality based idiots and people who just don't give a fuck about anyone else (step forward David Davis) are willing to walk away, but I like to think the rest are brighter than that.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Well, this week's talks have been productive fun. Not to be mistaken with productive and fun.

[Werthead]

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However a more cynical observer might arrive at the conclusion, that this infighting is just staged, and internally they agreed to let the talks to fail, instead of just walking away. The 48%+ remain plus the soft Brexit vote is something they'd rather not upset. I leave it to you to guess, how big a chunk of the electorate is for a hard Brexit. This way they can at least blame those inflexible unimaginative Europeans.

I think this is actually the most overwhelmingly likely scenario. We have to complete negotiations by October 2018 and get all 27 countries to ratify the deal by February 2019. That is simply not going to happen, not with Spain and Greece threatening to block the deal unless they get what they want (Gibraltar and various art treasures) and Germany and France not wanting to give us a "good deal" that encourages the split of the union. Not to mention that Merkel won't even give the situation much of a look-see until after the German elections.

Beyond that, we have no collateral or decent bargaining power to really get people in the EU on board, and that was clear even before the referendum (how else to explain Farage saying that Britain being impoverished is a price worth paying for Brexit). The Tories have been put in the position of delivering the utterly undeliverable, so have privately accepted that No Deal is a likely outcome and they now need to mask this fatalism by putting the blame on Europe. The fact that Davis is disengaged from the negotiations and is more interested in positioning himself for a future leadership challenge by making blustering, empty speeches on Europe devoid of any useful content is a good indication of that.

I suspect what we will see moving forward is the talks collapsing at some point - either quite soon or strung out rather piteously as far as next October - and Britain crashing out with No Deal in 2019. The Tories will either 1) blame May and replace her, 2) blame Europe for everything and try to bluff it out, or 3) concede they've fucked up and are going to lose the next election and start arranging peerages and company board positions for the current generation of Tory grandees and ride it out until the next Labour collapse.

Quote

 

Walking away without a deal may be favoured by some in the Tory party but I can't believe it's favoured by as many as it would have to be for the infighting to be staged. Brexit is going to be disastrous: walking away will make it worse. I can believe that non-reality based idiots and people who just don't give a fuck about anyone else (step forward David Davis) are willing to walk away, but I like to think the rest are brighter than that.

 

The rest don't have any say, or rather every time they try to have a say they are screamed at being Corbyn enablers and told to shut up. Those in charge of the Brexit train are manifestly some of the most incompetent politicians the Conservative Party has ever produced.

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

I think this is actually the most overwhelmingly likely scenario. We have to complete negotiations by October 2018 and get all 27 countries to ratify the deal by February 2019. That is simply not going to happen, not with Spain and Greece threatening to block the deal unless they get what they want (Gibraltar and various art treasures) and Germany and France not wanting to give us a "good deal" that encourages the split of the union. Not to mention that Merkel won't even give the situation much of a look-see until after the German elections.

Beyond that, we have no collateral or decent bargaining power to really get people in the EU on board, and that was clear even before the referendum (how else to explain Farage saying that Britain being impoverished is a price worth paying for Brexit). The Tories have been put in the position of delivering the utterly undeliverable, so have privately accepted that No Deal is a likely outcome and they now need to mask this fatalism by putting the blame on Europe. The fact that Davis is disengaged from the negotiations and is more interested in positioning himself for a future leadership challenge by making blustering, empty speeches on Europe devoid of any useful content is a good indication of that.

I suspect what we will see moving forward is the talks collapsing at some point - either quite soon or strung out rather piteously as far as next October - and Britain crashing out with No Deal in 2019. The Tories will either 1) blame May and replace her, 2) blame Europe for everything and try to bluff it out, or 3) concede they've fucked up and are going to lose the next election and start arranging peerages and company board positions for the current generation of Tory grandees and ride it out until the next Labour collapse.

The rest don't have any say, or rather every time they try to have a say they are screamed at being Corbyn enablers and told to shut up. Those in charge of the Brexit train are manifestly some of the most incompetent politicians the Conservative Party has ever produced.

I think its quite likely too. Although Davis was on TV this morning bigging up the idea of transitional arrangements. However a 'no deal' isn't a great result for the EU either, as it will only add to the perception of them as a hegemonic colonial power bullying its way to get what it wants. It has to always look reasonable in talks or it will cause more infighting and friction inside and outside of itself.

[mormont]

Four army members arrested for being part of a banned neo-Nazi group.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41161233

Scary stuff.

[Maltaran]

Just in case anyone was actually seriously thinking of voting for Jacob Rees-Mogg

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41172426

[mormont]

And Farage is also showing his colours:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/07/nigel-farage-to-address-far-right-rally-in-germany
 

Quote

 

Von Storch has been a member of Farage’s group in the European parliament since being expelled from the more mainstream European Conservatives and Reformists Group in April last year, following comments in which she called on European border guards to use firearms to deter illegal immigrants, including women and children. She later described the comments as a “tactical mistake”

In her Facebook post, von Storch said that Farage had been so impressed with the AfD’s campaign that he had accepted “without hesitation” her invitation to appear at a campaign rally.

 

Right-wing fuckery, not just an American problem.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Let them eat cake she said...

 

That's somehow the first thing that comes to my mind, when I hear her name.

Historical fun fact. von Storch's grandfather (Johann Ludwig von Krosigk) served as Hitler's finance minister. He was trialed as a war criminal after the war and sentenced to ten years. But unfortunately his sentence was communted in 1952.

 

 

[Jen'ari]

On 07/09/2017 at 5:56 PM, Maltaran said:

Just in case anyone was actually seriously thinking of voting for Jacob Rees-Mogg

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41172426

That's completely put me off him, not that I was particularly enamoured with him in the first place. I'd say I was traditionally a Tory voter but I couldn't bring myself to vote for May, and given the other candidates jockeying for position and line themselves up as leader I don't think I will be able to vote for them next time either.

[Which Tyler]

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1913633722294697&id=1498276767163730

 

From Robert Preston of ITV

 

Early next week we will learn whether Theresa May can govern - when she faces two life-or-death votes, both of which are seen by her opponents as outrageous attempts to rig our democracy.

The first vote is on the second reading of the European Union (Withdrawal) bill, which would give ministers unprecedented power to make laws without consulting parliament.

The second vote, disclosed by HuffPost, would guarantee this minority government a majority on important legislative and scrutiny committees.

The two initiatives are connected - in that the most discussed compromise to soften the undemocratic impact of the EU (Withdrawal) Bill would be to create a new committee or use an existing one to oversee which EU-related laws are translated into pure British law without the involvement of parliament.

But obviously such a new committee would be a fig leaf if it contained a majority of May yes-people.

So although it looked yesterday as though most Tory critics of May's approach to Brexit would not side with Labour in Monday night's EU bill vote, those critics will have to think again.

In giving May a majority on the second reading, Brexit-wary Conservative MPs such as Grieve, Morgan and Soubry could find themselves undermining their own plan to effectively protect MPs' rights through later amendments to the bill - because Tuesday's attempt to rig the composition of parliamentary committees would demolish any such protection (forgive the Lewis Carroll logic here - such is parliament).

Having lost her majority in the general election she chose to call, for a while May talked the talk of reflecting the will of the people by trying to work consensually with MPs of other parties.

It is now a case of consensus conshmensus. With the aid of her most important minister, the wily chief whip, Williamson, she will attempt to rule by diktat via the gaming of parliamentary rules.

She has returned back from holiday with the spirit of the Venezuelan approach to democracy seemingly coursing through her veins.

[denstorebog]

On 9/10/2017 at 0:35 PM, Which Tyler said:

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1913633722294697&id=1498276767163730

 

From Robert Preston of ITV

Too bad I'm too lazy to go back and dig up the post-election discussions about whether May had authoritarian tendencies or not.

[Which Tyler]

She did and does; I do'nt think there was ever a question about it was there?

[denstorebog]

42 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

She did and does; I do'nt think there was ever a question about it was there?

I remember asking about it around the time of her hobnobbing with Trump, given that I knew next to nothing about her. The consensus seemed to be that she was not authoritarian as such, just a political power grabber in the regular vein. I guess when standing next to Trump, anything is regular. 

[SeanF]

The vote in favour of the Second Reading was 326-290, which was bigger than expected.  I'd expect the government will win the vote on Committee Composition by about 320 - 305.

[Werthead]

Yup. Surprising how many MPs are prepared to sell out democracy, but so it goes.

The public sector pay cap appears to have been lifted for prison and police staff, but a pay rise of 1.7-2% is not going to cut it when inflation has just hit 2.9%. There's now talk of widespread strike action for other public sector workers, which should make life fun.

[ljkeane]

It looks like someone tried to set off some sort of explosive device on a tube train. Fortunately it doesn't seem to have been that effective.

[Werthead]

Yup. Looks like a bodge job and more people were injured running away from the scene than in the incident itself. No fatalities. Still, a lucky miss, and a worrying change in tactics (a move away from suicide attacks towards IRA-style bombings).

[ljkeane]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

a worrying change in tactics (a move away from suicide attacks towards IRA-style bombings).

This is a little bit of a morbid subject but I'm not sure that's necessarily the case. Making a bomb isn't that easy, as shown by the relative failure of this device and the guys in Spain blowing themselves up, and, while it clearly doesn't always work, you'd think buying things you could use to make a bomb could raise some red flags with the security services unlike just hiring a van.

[Werthead]

As interventions go, Johnson's today was as bizarrely self-defeating as I've ever seen. And the "£350 million a week for the NHS" horseshit is a bewilderingly stupid hill to die on.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

As interventions go, Johnson's today was as bizarrely self-defeating as I've ever seen. And the "£350 million a week for the NHS" horseshit is a bewilderingly stupid hill to die on.

Well, apparently he believes he can still become PM. My take on this is, since his name is tied to that dead hooker he probably felt like he might as well try to ride her one more time over the finish line. Somehow this imagery went straight into bizarro world in a kinda disturbing fashion, somehow fitting for BoJo I guess.