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Was Doran Martell's 'master' plan only to wed Arianne to Viserys, or am I missing something here?


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Was Doran Martell's 'master' plan only to wed Arianne to Viserys, or am I missing something here?

I understand he also sent Quentyn to Daenerys, but both of these ideas don't seem to make up an amazing plan by Doran Martell. He's referred to by some fans as a genius game of thrones player. Is there something about his plans others (including myself) haven't picked up on?

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I don't think anyone refers to him as a genius. He is patient, cautious, and he has been able to conceal his true desires very well. I doubt his only plan was to marry Arianne off to Viserys. He kept it as an option but he didn't really invest much in the plan so if it didn't work out then he is no worse off. To me he just seems to be waiting for an opportunity, it seems to have actually come to him now but he is not particularly proactive.

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He was waiting (hoping? expecting?) for Viserys to find an army first. He said as much. That's why he did not invite Viserys to wed Arianne, and why he kept the pact a secret long after the wee ones had come of age. 

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Not to rehash or repeat a lot of stuff you can find elsewhere, but it's hard to tell for sure what is part of Doran's plans and what isn't. Doran is definitely doing more than one thing at once, though.

Also, it's worth noting that Doran and Oberyn, despite have very different personalities, are very close and are probably in on whatever they are doing together.

Furthermore, of all his qualities, Doran is most described as patient (well, cautious, but the point is he takes his time). So to figure out what he's up to you can look over a very long time period.

So, with that in mind, Doran is potentially involved in a lot of stuff. Much more than just Arianne and Viserys. But the evidence for his involvement tends to be circumstantial.

 

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Getting Oberyn into the circles of power in KL may have been part of it, too. An ironic inversion, sending the Viper to be a politician and diplomat while the patient one drives the machinery of usurpation. Even with an invasion, it would be a lot easier going if there were some route to political acceptance. 

Of course Oberyn's ostensible purpose is to exact revenge on the Mountain, but I don't see how getting on Tywin's bad side would have served Dorne's interests.

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I mean, he's managed to keep his nation out of the W5K, without making an enemy out of any of the major players. Whoever won the battle would have no reason to think any more or less of Dorne than before the conflict. They've sustained nearly no casualties, and have a handful of well positioned noble ladies to sure up alliances in the future.

If you look at the long-long game, Doran may simply have decided the Lannister/Baratheon reign was too hard to fight, but also too combustible not burn out within a generation or two. All he had to do was wait out Tywin the pyromancer, remaining agile enough to step up in whatever vacuum their crumbling dynasty allows for. 

Perhaps Doran's greatest trait from a leadership POV is not letting himself need to exact revenge. He certainly wants to; but he's led with a viewpoint of what's best for Dorne - not what's best for Doran.

 

(just devils advocate here. truly I find the whole thing needlessly elaborate and inconsequential)

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Did Doran communicate with Illyrio and Varys? Did Varys and Illyrio sniff out Doran's secret?  Is that why they arranged for Viserys to go out with the Dothraki horde? And married Dany to Khal Drogo?  Was that supposed to be a good plan? Or a way to remove Viserys and Dany so that Young Griff Aegon (true Targ, Blackfyre, or whover) could enter triumphantly?  Doran didn't seem to know about Aegon. Viserys' claim (especially if he wed Arianne and joined with Dorne) would compete with Aegon's claim.

I think Dany hatching the dragons was totally unexpected.  Her widowhood and dragons brought her back into play for both Dorne and Aegon.

What is interesting is that a green haired Tyroshi girl (daughter of Anchron) was supposed to be exchanged with Arianne so Arianne could meet Viserys in Tyrosh.  Arianne's mother objected to sending her away, though. 

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6 hours ago, SummerSphinx said:

Did Doran communicate with Illyrio and Varys? Did Varys and Illyrio sniff out Doran's secret?  Is that why they arranged for Viserys to go out with the Dothraki horde? And married Dany to Khal Drogo?  Was that supposed to be a good plan? Or a way to remove Viserys and Dany so that Young Griff Aegon (true Targ, Blackfyre, or whover) could enter triumphantly?  Doran didn't seem to know about Aegon. Viserys' claim (especially if he wed Arianne and joined with Dorne) would compete with Aegon's claim.

I think Dany hatching the dragons was totally unexpected.  Her widowhood and dragons brought her back into play for both Dorne and Aegon.

What is interesting is that a green haired Tyroshi girl (daughter of Anchron) was supposed to be exchanged with Arianne so Arianne could meet Viserys in Tyrosh.  Arianne's mother objected to sending her away, though. 

I think their original plan was to have Khal Drogo invading a destabilised seven kingdoms and have Aegon swoop in with the Golden Company as an avenging angel to save Westeros. It's a little unclear to me whether GRRM actually envisaged this storyline when he started writing the first book. It wouldn't surprise me if it was something he thought up later and would have written slightly differently if he could start over. I don't think Varys was ever aware of Doran's plan.

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The first time we see Doran, his domain is the verge of an uprising, with his close family at the forefront. I think most of his actions are geared toward maintaining control over Dorne and his unruly family, rather than any revenge.

In fact I don't think the marriage pact was his doing but Oberyn's without his knowledge or consent. After all, the latter unilaterally decided to offer sanctuary to Tyrion and crown Myrcella. We are also told that he had in the past tried to raise Dorne for Viserys.

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12 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

The first time we see Doran, his domain is the verge of an uprising, with his close family at the forefront. I think most of his actions are geared toward maintaining control over Dorne and his unruly family, rather than any revenge.

No, he's out for power and revenge, in that order.

Hence his almost obsessive desire for a marriage pact into the Targaryen dynasty.  If all he wanted was revenge for Elia and her children, he'd play it even safer and plan on supporting Viserys and then Daenerys when they show up in Westeros.  But what he wants is to get revenge and get back to the position he had when Elia was married to Rhaegar; he wants to be uncle to the future King, an extremely powerful and influential position for Dorne.

On 7/25/2017 at 2:20 PM, shadows and dust said:

Perhaps Doran's greatest trait from a leadership POV is not letting himself need to exact revenge. He certainly wants to; but he's led with a viewpoint of what's best for Dorne - not what's best for Doran.

It might be his worst trait.  He is commendable in that he doesn't want to start a war he can't win, because he knows the innocent children of Dorne will suffer.  However, he is committed to regaining power and influence, and in his revenge.  He can't have both.  So he ends up being too timid in his plotting (e.g. his awful plan to send Quentyn to Dorne) for fear of being found out and starting a war, but simultaneously is so committed to his ultimate plan that he ends up sacrificing those closest to him; his son is dead and his daughter will be too, soon.

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5 minutes ago, cpg2016 said:

No, he's out for power and revenge, in that order.

Hence his almost obsessive desire for a marriage pact into the Targaryen dynasty.  If all he wanted was revenge for Elia and her children, he'd play it even safer and plan on supporting Viserys and then Daenerys when they show up in Westeros.  But what he wants is to get revenge and get back to the position he had when Elia was married to Rhaegar; he wants to be uncle to the future King, an extremely powerful and influential position for Dorne.

Is it? Because as far as we can tell he has done nothing to that end. Viserys died before Arrianne even knew about it. No alliances, no raising of troops. Did he expect Viserys to just show up and Robert would give up the Throne?

And Quentyn's mission was half-assed at best. As if he couldn't have hired a ship for them under false pretenses and send some dignitaries for them.

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1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

Is it? Because as far as we can tell he has done nothing to that end. Viserys died before Arrianne even knew about it. No alliances, no raising of troops. Did he expect Viserys to just show up and Robert would give up the Throne?

... yeah, it is.  He wants a Targaryen Restoration, with a Martell consort on the throne and a half-Martell crown prince.

And the expectation is that Viserys shows up with a Dothraki horde at his back, and the Martells and other disaffected nobles rally to him and he wins the throne.  Arianne doesn't need to know, because Doran does - but yeah, this is another huge failure, that he doesn't trust Arianne, the key player in his plan, with the truth, and it almost ruins everything.  Because he's terrified of being found out and forced into war by Robert.

1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

And Quentyn's mission was half-assed at best. As if he couldn't have hired a ship for them under false pretenses and send some dignitaries for them.

A billion percent this.  But that would risk the Iron Throne finding out his plans and bringing war to the Water Gardens.  Again, he is too scared of bringing death to his people to commit to his plans fully, so he's going to end up with war AND no revenge/power to show for it.

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6 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

... yeah, it is.  He wants a Targaryen Restoration, with a Martell consort on the throne and a half-Martell crown prince.

And the expectation is that Viserys shows up with a Dothraki horde at his back, and the Martells and other disaffected nobles rally to him and he wins the throne.  Arianne doesn't need to know, because Doran does - but yeah, this is another huge failure, that he doesn't trust Arianne, the key player in his plan, with the truth, and it almost ruins everything.  Because he's terrified of being found out and forced into war by Robert.

That's very vague, there is no indication that he was aware of such plans and that still leaves sixteen years of doing apparently nothing to further his stated goal. For someone who commits his daughter and heir to rebellion, he doesn't seem very invested in the venture.

 

6 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

A billion percent this.  But that would risk the Iron Throne finding out his plans and bringing war to the Water Gardens.  Again, he is too scared of bringing death to his people to commit to his plans fully, so he's going to end up with war AND no revenge/power to show for it.

That is an exaggeration. He could have contrived some diplomatic mission to the Free Cities or something. The Iron Throne might have suspected something was amiss, but gaining proof would be practically impossible. And frankly the Throne had bigger things to wary about. Oberyn basically pranced around threatening people. Doran could have gotten away with a better organized mission.

The way he goes about furthering his stated goals or doesn't makes me question the sincerity of his stated purpose.

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14 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

It might be his worst trait.  He is commendable in that he doesn't want to start a war he can't win, because he knows the innocent children of Dorne will suffer.  However, he is committed to regaining power and influence, and in his revenge.  He can't have both.  So he ends up being too timid in his plotting (e.g. his awful plan to send Quentyn to Dorne) for fear of being found out and starting a war, but simultaneously is so committed to his ultimate plan that he ends up sacrificing those closest to him; his son is dead and his daughter will be too, soon.

 

6 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

The way he goes about furthering his stated goals or doesn't makes me question the sincerity of his stated purpose.

 

So, if you know you cannot win a war. And you know your immediate family wants revenge. And you feel very strongly that those you want revenge on are instable and likely to self-combust.... Isn't your best option to stay neutral while cultivating a reputation as a thinker and a schemer and making little missions with nebulous end-games to keep people thinking that you're trying to advance your cause?

If Doran had just said, "Listen, it sucks what happened, but Robert and the Lions would shred us if we went to war. That said, they're really shitty people, and over enough time people will figure that out. I bet within a generation there will be other uprisings. If we just chill out for 20 years, we should be in a good situation. Our best revenge is to live a good life and be happier and healthier than those who wronged us." He would have ignored at best and overthrown at worst. But if he's a "schemer", and people truly think he's doing things behind the scenes - even if they think he's being too slow or too cautious - they at least think he's trying.

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17 minutes ago, shadows and dust said:

 

 

So, if you know you cannot win a war. And you know your immediate family wants revenge. And you feel very strongly that those you want revenge on are instable and likely to self-combust.... Isn't your best option to stay neutral while cultivating a reputation as a thinker and a schemer and making little missions with nebulous end-games to keep people thinking that you're trying to advance your cause?

If Doran had just said, "Listen, it sucks what happened, but Robert and the Lions would shred us if we went to war. That said, they're really shitty people, and over enough time people will figure that out. I bet within a generation there will be other uprisings. If we just chill out for 20 years, we should be in a good situation. Our best revenge is to live a good life and be happier and healthier than those who wronged us." He would have ignored at best and overthrown at worst. But if he's a "schemer", and people truly think he's doing things behind the scenes - even if they think he's being too slow or too cautious - they at least think he's trying.

I'm on board with that actually. His actions or lack of them make more sense if they are aimed at pacifying his unruly relatives and the rest of Dorne.

Rather than him working with Oberyn, it seems more likely that the latter acted unilaterally forcing Doran into actions he did not want and leaving him to clean up his messes. Oberyn in his short stint in King's Landing championed Tyrion and was recruiting him in crowning his niece against his nephew. Was Doran aware of such plans? He obviously did not approve as he foiled a plan to crown Myrcella. If you extrapolate from that it doesn't seem unlikely that Oberyn made the marriage pact between Viserys and Arriane on his own initiative without Doran's knowledge or approval.

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There are indications or at least some groundwork laid out for Oberyn at least discovering that JonCon was recruited to raise a boy who might be his nephew: he raised his own company in Essos, and so must have contacts, especially if some of those men ended up fighting for the GC.

Then Arianne and 3 snakes go visit the mother of Tyene in the Reach. Tyene is Arianne's most favourite sand snake. We don't know when exactly that visit happened, but the earliest reasonable age for that is when the youngest snake is around 10. In 188 AC for example Arianne and Tyene would be 11-12. And that voyage would not have occurred unaccompanied. Oberyn would have been with them. Oberyn is unlikely to just have been on a family visit alone. The family visit was a cover-up for the real reason for the visit imo. Oberyn sought Tyene's mother out to infiltrate JonCon's team imo, and she did as Lemore (with hair-dye).

Whether he informed Doran of it I don't know. He might not have, not wanting to set Doran up for disappointment if the boy was not Aegon or ends up dorwning or something, or he did inform Doran and it would be perfectly in his style to leave the boy alone and just see what come out of it. It might be the reason why he made no move towards Viserys when the time came for it, and why he sent Arianne personally to meet with JonCon and Aegon.

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On 7/27/2017 at 9:46 AM, shadows and dust said:

So, if you know you cannot win a war. And you know your immediate family wants revenge. And you feel very strongly that those you want revenge on are instable and likely to self-combust.... Isn't your best option to stay neutral while cultivating a reputation as a thinker and a schemer and making little missions with nebulous end-games to keep people thinking that you're trying to advance your cause?

Yes, but he's conspiring from Day 1, by his own admission, at a Targaryen Restoration.  

On 7/27/2017 at 9:46 AM, shadows and dust said:

If Doran had just said, "Listen, it sucks what happened, but Robert and the Lions would shred us if we went to war. That said, they're really shitty people, and over enough time people will figure that out. I bet within a generation there will be other uprisings. If we just chill out for 20 years, we should be in a good situation. Our best revenge is to live a good life and be happier and healthier than those who wronged us." He would have ignored at best and overthrown at worst. But if he's a "schemer", and people truly think he's doing things behind the scenes - even if they think he's being too slow or too cautious - they at least think he's trying.

But this is the issue, you know?  Because Doran is facing a situation just shy of a civil war, precisely because he's viewed as doing nothing.  So yes, maybe he gets overthrown if he goes the former route.... but as far as anyone in Dorne is concerned, save Oberyn, that's exactly what he's doing!  You are describing his actions in OTL.  No one thinks he's scheming, people think he's timid.

 

On 7/27/2017 at 1:08 PM, sweetsunray said:

Whether he informed Doran of it I don't know. He might not have, not wanting to set Doran up for disappointment if the boy was not Aegon or ends up dorwning or something, or he did inform Doran and it would be perfectly in his style to leave the boy alone and just see what come out of it. It might be the reason why he made no move towards Viserys when the time came for it, and why he sent Arianne personally to meet with JonCon and Aegon

There is absolutely 0 chance Doran has any knowledge of Aegon's supposed parentage.  If he knew, he would never, never send Quentyn to Meereen, because he no longer needs a royal marriage!  He wants to get back to the time when a half-Martell king would sit the Iron Throne - to his knowledge, that's Aegon, just in line with the initial plan 20 years previously.  Maybe Arianne marries him still, but he's not sending Quent anywhere, anymore.

On 7/27/2017 at 3:29 AM, The Sleeper said:

That's very vague, there is no indication that he was aware of such plans and that still leaves sixteen years of doing apparently nothing to further his stated goal. For someone who commits his daughter and heir to rebellion, he doesn't seem very invested in the venture.

Of course he does something - he's waiting for Viserys to come of age.  This is my point about him being a bad schemer.  What else is he supposed to do to "further his goal"?  He doesn't want a war before the time is perfectly ripe, which means doing nothing to tip off Varys or Tywin or Robert or Jon Arryn about his true goals.  And since he has no access to the royal court, he can't even work to destabilize the regime the way Littlefinger and Varys do.  But you've hit on the entire point without seeming to realize it: Doran is so afraid of causing unneccessary suffering that he won't take any actions that might jeopardize lives, even if it helps his goals.  His plan is for Arianne to be Queen one day, and he won't even give her the political training she'll need for fear she can't keep a secret, and it almost blows up his whole plan!

 

On 7/27/2017 at 3:29 AM, The Sleeper said:

That is an exaggeration. He could have contrived some diplomatic mission to the Free Cities or something. The Iron Throne might have suspected something was amiss, but gaining proof would be practically impossible.

Don't be absurd - the Iron Throne has some sources of information, and if Doran says "I'm sending a completely unprecedented political 'mission' to the Free Cities" and next thing Cersei hears is that the Dornish have left Volantis and are headed to Meereen, it's pretty damn obvious what they're up to.  We have little to no evidence of non-royal ambassadors to other courts, or even political missions, as you term them.  The Targaryens send a bunch of groups over looking for potential wives (e.g. Steffon Baratheon), and apparently the Master of Coin can go to treat with the Iron Bank, but like in real life we don't see Kansas sending an officially accredited ambassador to Romania, we don't see individual constituent kingdoms engaging in international diplomacy.

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1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

Of course he does something - he's waiting for Viserys to come of age.  This is my point about him being a bad schemer.  What else is he supposed to do to "further his goal"?  He doesn't want a war before the time is perfectly ripe, which means doing nothing to tip off Varys or Tywin or Robert or Jon Arryn about his true goals.  And since he has no access to the royal court, he can't even work to destabilize the regime the way Littlefinger and Varys do.  But you've hit on the entire point without seeming to realize it: Doran is so afraid of causing unneccessary suffering that he won't take any actions that might jeopardize lives, even if it helps his goals.  His plan is for Arianne to be Queen one day, and he won't even give her the political training she'll need for fear she can't keep a secret, and it almost blows up his whole plan!

Viserys is about the same age as Arianne. He's been of age for the better part of a decade at the start of the series. Waiting counts as doing something only if you have an action planned for when the period of waiting is over. Or you are looking for an opportunity. There is nothing anywhere that indicates that Doran sought in any way to facilitate Viserys's ascension to the Iron Throne.

 

1 hour ago, cpg2016 said:

Don't be absurd - the Iron Throne has some sources of information, and if Doran says "I'm sending a completely unprecedented political 'mission' to the Free Cities" and next thing Cersei hears is that the Dornish have left Volantis and are headed to Meereen, it's pretty damn obvious what they're up to.  We have little to no evidence of non-royal ambassadors to other courts, or even political missions, as you term them.  The Targaryens send a bunch of groups over looking for potential wives (e.g. Steffon Baratheon), and apparently the Master of Coin can go to treat with the Iron Bank, but like in real life we don't see Kansas sending an officially accredited ambassador to Romania, we don't see individual constituent kingdoms engaging in international diplomacy.

The absurdity is that the Iron Throne can track a ship to the far ends of the earth (they are not the NSA) or that a rebellion can be achieved without any risk whatsoever. Doran has had diplomatic relationships with the Free Cities (the fosterage of the Tyroshi Archon's daughter). The particulars are not important. The situation as is, means that the Iron Throne has limited means of surveilance and intervention at the time, as Varys is on hiding and the Tyrells have spread troops all over the place. Doran could pretty much do what he wants and it would be years if ever before the Iron Throne is in a position to do anything about it. He certainly could have made a better effort to sned a proper mission to Dany with reasonable odds that the Iron Throne did not find out about it. He basically committed no resources of his own on the mission to Dany.

There are two options. Unless more is revealed in the books his plans cannot count as such. The proper term would be intentions wihtout any follow-up. The second option is that he never had these intentions at all. The only evidence that he aims at Targaryen restoration and vengeance against the Lannisters is his own word. Is there any particular reason to assume that he is being honest about it?

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It seems Viserys and Dany hid in Dorne for a while, when the pact was signed and everyone was very young. 

Prince Doran only set suitors for his daughter Arianna who were old and she would obviously spurn them. 

Whenever Viserys got his Dothraki army and any other sell-swords the Cheesemonger and Spider could hire (a lot), Doran would join their side with all or most of Dorne on his side. His daughter would become Queen of the Seven Kingdoms in a fortnight. 

Viserys got himself killed though.

It seems Prince Doran immediately put his son Quentin to the task of presenting the pact to Daenerys in hopes that she would honor it. Maybe he waited a while for reports on her though. At this point she wasn't the Mother of Dragons yet. This is obviously a long shot, and changes his plans up completely, he just continues with the hand dealt him. 

I think a huge part of his plans have always been Oberyn.

He makes a point to his daughter and her cousins that even the Viper uses the tall soothing grass to stay hidden until it's ready to strike. Doran was Oberyn's grass who's just waiting to strike. 

He also already has at least one spy in KL. Has it been all but confirmed that Taena is the spy that's mentioned? Taena who has shared Cersei's bed? Now one of the Sandsnakes has been sent to infiltrate the Faith. Trained warriors in these situations could wreak havoc from the inside while an army approaches. And Aleras, or Salera, the other Sandsnake who's doing fuckall in Oldtown. Doran refers to it as her "game". I might assume he's writing her tough, using her for a source of information inside the Citadel. Besides that, maybe there's more to her being there than her curiosity. Maybe she's playing a larger role in Doran's "game". 

Tyrion also blessed them with an invitation to join the Small Council. Before this, I believe Oberyn's role was more along the lines of a commander for Dorne's armies during the coming wars. But now that he can get so close to the Lannisters, he could wreak even more havoc than the other spies during a siege. 

"Queen Daenarys is at our gates Queen Cersei. what should we do?!". O shit she dead Oberyn poisoned their whole family with a handshake.

Of course, Oberyn also had to go and get himself killed.  

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, cpg2016 said:

There is absolutely 0 chance Doran has any knowledge of Aegon's supposed parentage.  If he knew, he would never, never send Quentyn to Meereen, because he no longer needs a royal marriage!  He wants to get back to the time when a half-Martell king would sit the Iron Throne - to his knowledge, that's Aegon, just in line with the initial plan 20 years previously.  Maybe Arianne marries him still, but he's not sending Quent anywhere, anymore.

Aegon doesn't come with dragons.

Let's say that at some pint he's informed by Oberyn about Aegon, after the news that Viserys died, combined with the news that Dany has dragons. Why wouldn't he want to leave the possibility open to marry Arianne and Quentyn both to the two last Targs? It's a total win for Doran if Quentyn had succeeded.

Daeron II was married to the sisters of the Prince of Dorne, and Daeron's sister Daenerys (the first one) was married to the Prince of Dorne (and the water gardens were built for her after all). Both marriages made sure that the IT and Dorne  a - made peace b - Dorne became part of the 7K  and c - were a united front against all those warmongers who wanted to renew a war against Dorne. 

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