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Theory about resolution of "Beast of Stone" Prophecy


a1andrew

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I came up with this theory from the House of the Undying prophecies in book two the other day.  I did my homework and everything seems to check out.  From all I can tell, there are a lot of theories floating around about who the Beast of Stone from the House of Undying prophecy is, but I haven't encountered any that come to my conclusion (apologies if there is and I've somehow missed it, I've checked a ton, but its probably impossible to check everything).
 
First, let's start with how I got to my conclusion, and the reasons in favor of that conclusion.  I'll go on to why the other theories don't work later.  The Beast of Stone is paired with two other prophecies under the heading "Mother of Dragons, Destroyer of Lies".  This heading suggests an adversarial relationship with Dany, whereby Dany ends the "lie".  The first one is the easiest to discern: "Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue eyed king who cast no shadow".  That is clearly Stannis, universally acknowledged on the forums and discernable from several different points of information that were provided.  The second one isn't quite as textually provable, but is fairly unanimously recognized nevertheless: "A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd".  Aegon.  The third, "From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire".  This is the only one where there isn't a large consensus on.
 
I start by looking at the most significant and indisputable feature the two identified entities have in common: They are all representative of claimants for the Iron Throne at the end of Dance of Dragons.  The "lie" must be their claim to the throne.  Who is the other claimant at that point?  Tommen.
 
Do I think the "great stone beast" is Tommen, no.  I think it is representative of House Lannister, as a general claimant to the iron throne, whether Tommen, Myrcella  or Cersei.  But if the beast is representative of House Lannister, then how?  There are two strong answers.  First, we have Cersei burning the tower of the hand.  Second, there are suggestions that she will eventually burn even more down, with the constant use of "wildfire" to describe her, and her own thoughts to "burn down" the city under certain circumstance.  So, either way a "smoking tower" would likely fit in quite nicely with House Lannister being represented by the Beast of Stone prophecy.
 
The final, "strong"est evidence is a "great stone beast":  Robert Strong.  He is nearly universally believed to be the person Bran was seeing in book one, when he was described as "a giant in armor made of stone".  Those quotes are essentially just different ways of saying the same thing.  A headless stone giant is clearly a "great stone beast". Personally, it is this comparison that most rings true to me and makes me most confident I'm right.
 
That leaves two remaining elements of textual hints, "takes wing" and "breathes shadow fire".  These are less clearly applicable.  I suspect the former is either metaphor to give a red herring impression of a dragon, or will simply be something that will be eventually revealed.  Although, I've been wondering if instead of meaning the beast flies, it means he "takes" the wing of another, i.e. kills a dragon?  Meanwhile breathing shadow fire may have something to do with poisoned blood.  Maybe a reference to shadow arts having taken his breath?  Or maybe, in the shadows, he helped place the wildfire?  Or maybe he is animated by a form of Shadowbinder magic?  Its not clear what actually animates him.
 
Finally, I can't see any of the alternate theories I've seen out there on this prophecy being correct.  Jon Connington?  He is associated with Aegon, why mention team Aegon twice?  Marwin or the Maesters?  They are not vying for direct control of the iron throne.  It would be like including in the prophecy some of the competing westerosi religions or beliefs.  Sure they may be competing and wrong in some way, but they aren't a direct corollary to Aegon and Stannis, and that opens the door to many more people or groups who could be fit in.  I think Martin was trying for a solid group of three, who are clearly distinct from others.  What else, that is both substantive and distinct from other groups, do Aegon and Stannis have in common besides a claim to the iron throne?  The only thing that could be argued as coming close is the potential of being the prince that was promised.  But, only Stannis considers himself the prince that was promised, that concept is unknown to Aegon.  And no one else compatible is a claimant for that honor anyway.  IMO, its got to be about claimants to the Iron Throne, with the "lie" that Dany destroys being their claim to the throne.  As such, House Lannister is the best bet.  Jon, another popular choice, therefore wouldn't fit, because his claim is as good as hers, and because it looks likely that they will rule together.  The only caveat is Euron Greyjoy.  I did see this theory out there, and its true, he is technically claiming the Iron Throne as well.  This is the only other plausible theory, in my opinion.  However, the ways to reach "from a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire", are MUCH more strained than under the above Lannister theory.  Basically, every way to match that phrase is at least as conjectural as "takes wing" and "breathes shadow fire" is for Lannister.  None are at the level of textual strength as the other two elements are for Lannister.  Moreover, Euron is a less serious obstacle than Lannister.  Team Lannister is therefore a much stronger bet, in my opinion.
 
Finally, what bigger "lie" is there in the entire series than the parentage of Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella?  R+L=J is a bigger "secret", but it lacks the negative connotations of "lie".  The way JTM's parentage fits in with their claim to the throne makes it the perfect anchor for the entire series of "lie" prophecies, and the one Martin would most likely try his best to obscure the most.
 
I'll admit it, I've always been sad that I saw most of the puzzles of ASOIAF solved before I figured them out for myself, and had never really figured one out that I didn't at least see later there was already a theory pushing it, so I've been looking for a good one to solve.  Let me know if you think I've done it. 
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When it comes to more obscure theories such as this, I am no expert, but @chrisdaw has some excellent theories regarding stuff like this. You should read his thread 'An Explanation for Dragon Riding, the Meaning of Azor Ahai, Lightbringer and Everything Else'. Some really well thought out and detailed theories produced in his post, and a great theory in regard to the Stone Beast.

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From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire.

Like some of the other HotU images, this one is from the past:

  • Smoking tower = Burning of Harrenhal
  • Stone beast took wing = House Hoare becoming House Lothston ("Lothston" means "Hateful Stone", the sigil of house Lothston is a bat)
  • Beathing shadow fire = Lucas Lothston's role setting the Blackfyre Rebellions in motion (Blackfyre = Shadow Fire)
12 minutes ago, a1andrew said:

I start by looking at the most significant and indisputable feature the two identified entities have in common: They are all representative of claimants for the Iron Throne at the end of Dance of Dragons.

The most significant features is that both of them are living a lie. Stannis that he's Azor Ahai Reborn, Aegon that he's the son of Rhaegar. Of course Tommen is also living a lie: he's not the son of Robert Baratheon. Since the quatrain is "slayer of lies" this is more likely to be relevant.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, JordanJH1993 said:

When it comes to more obscure theories such as this, I am no expert, but @chrisdaw has some excellent theories regarding stuff like this. You should read his thread 'An Explanation for Dragon Riding, the Meaning of Azor Ahai, Lightbringer and Everything Else'. Some really well thought out and detailed theories produced in his post, and a great theory in regard to the Stone Beast.

Thanks, I believe that's one of the ones I read, and I think I've accounted for all the theories there, but I'll look again.

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18 minutes ago, Damon_Tor said:

Like some of the other HotU images, this one is from the past:

  • Smoking tower = Burning of Harrenhal
  • Stone beast took wing = House Hoare becoming House Lothston ("Lothston" means "Hateful Stone", the sigil of house Lothston is a bat)
  • Beathing shadow fire = Lucas Lothston's role setting the Blackfyre Rebellions in motion (Blackfyre = Shadow Fire)

The most significant features is that both of them are living a lie. Stannis that he's Azor Ahai Reborn, Aegon that he's the son of Rhaegar. Of course Tommen is also living a lie: he's not the son of Robert Baratheon. Since the quatrain is "slayer of lies" this is more likely to be relevant.

 

 

Thanks.  I think the Harrenhal Blackfyre theory is textually strained, though, and not relevant to Dany unless as a repeat of her future role in exposing Aegon, which I think Martin would be unlikely to repeat.  Also, I believe the "lie" in question is that Dany will destroy the "lie" of each of the other competing claims to the Iron Throne.

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I think the premise that the lies must involve kingship or a claim to the throne is wrong. There isn't any universal code deciding which royal claims are true and which are false; as Varys says, it's all just an illusion that people buy into, made real by that belief. If Stannis, Aegon or anyone else takes the throne and unites the realm with them as king, they're the kings, same as any other historical ruler who won a war for a crown they didn't necessarily have a right to.

I also think the connection between the Stone Beast and the Lannister cause is too abstract. As you say, with Stannis and Aegon it's fairly obvious. Stannis is easily identified by his unique sword, distinct eyes and the specific description of his non-existent shadow, and Aegon's life and circumstances clearly match the picture of a fake dragon being held up for the sake of the masses. There's nothing and no one that so far matches the depiction of a stone beast breathing shadowfire launching off a smoking tower, and I assume that's because it hasn't actually happened yet. Stannis was the subject of the first vision and was the first to be introduced, Aegon was the subject of the second vision and was the second to be introduced, so I assume the third will be the third to appear, and will do so in future.

My take is that the lies pertain to objective falsehoods that are all related to Dany. Stannis is almost certainly not Azor Ahai, that's what his vision depicts (hero with a glowing sword), and it pertains to Dany in that she probably is Azor Ahai. Aegon is almost certainly not a real Targaryen, that's what his vision depicts (metaphoric dragon), and it pertains to Dany in that she is the real Targaryen heir. I believe the third has yet to be revealed, but will involve either Melisandre (who wants to raise a stone dragon, and who has powers over shadow and flame) or Euron, who is being built up as a magical, hostile figure who wants control over a dragon, both of whom are well-known for being misleading. 

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5 minutes ago, The Drunkard said:

I think the premise that the lies must involve kingship or a claim to the throne is wrong. There isn't any universal code deciding which royal claims are true and which are false; as Varys says, it's all just an illusion that people buy into, made real by that belief. If Stannis, Aegon or anyone else takes the throne and unites the realm with them as king, they're the kings, same as any other historical ruler who won a war for a crown they didn't necessarily have a right to.

I also think the connection between the Stone Beast and the Lannister cause is too abstract. As you say, with Stannis and Aegon it's fairly obvious. Stannis is easily identified by his unique sword, distinct eyes and the specific description of his non-existent shadow, and Aegon's life and circumstances clearly match the picture of a fake dragon being held up for the sake of the masses. There's nothing and no one that so far matches the depiction of a stone beast breathing shadowfire launching off a smoking tower, and I assume that's because it hasn't actually happened yet. Stannis was the subject of the first vision and was the first to be introduced, Aegon was the subject of the second vision and was the second to be introduced, so I assume the third will be the third to appear, and will do so in future.

My take is that the lies pertain to objective falsehoods that are all related to Dany. Stannis is almost certainly not Azor Ahai, that's what his vision depicts (hero with a glowing sword), and it pertains to Dany in that she probably is Azor Ahai. Aegon is almost certainly not a real Targaryen, that's what his vision depicts (metaphoric dragon), and it pertains to Dany in that she is the real Targaryen heir. I believe the third has yet to be revealed, but will involve either Melisandre (who wants to raise a stone dragon, and who has powers over shadow and flame) or Euron, who is being built up as a magical, hostile figure who wants control over a dragon, both of whom are well-known for being misleading. 

That's a good argument, lthough, on the one hand you say kingship (a hereditary based system) is subjective, not factual, and later you say that Aegon is not a real Targ.  Except, that also is a hereditary based system, and he appears at least likely to be a Blackfyre (hence, Targ except by subjective standards).  Subjectivity can enter into anything.  The main thing that stands out about both identified persons is they are a claimant to the iron throne.  And again, what bigger "lie" is there than the parentage of Tommen etc.  Anyway, good argument, but agree to disagree.

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39 minutes ago, a1andrew said:

Thanks.  I think the Harrenhal Blackfyre theory is textually strained, though, and not relevant to Dany unless as a repeat of her future role in exposing Aegon, which I think Martin would be unlikely to repeat.  Also, I believe the "lie" in question is that Dany will destroy the "lie" of each of the other competing claims to the Iron Throne.

It's relevant to Dany because Lothston -> Whent. Cat Stark's mother was a Whent, Sansa carries their genes. Petyr Baelish is Lord of Harrenhal. Or did you think that subplot was just going nowhere?

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Dany's visions at the HotU is proven to be not only of future events but also what could have been if some things had happened differently. His son died but she sees a tall lord with a banner of fiery stallion. This believed to be Dany's stillborn son. So in that case beast that takes wing from stone is probably what could have been if Stannis allowed Mellisandre to sacrifice Edric Storm.

Not everything has to be different than it seems.

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8 hours ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

Dany's visions at the HotU is proven to be not only of future events but also what could have been if some things had happened differently.


Careful with the word "proven".

8 hours ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

His son died but she sees a tall lord with a banner of fiery stallion. This believed to be Dany's stillborn son.

Point of fact: everything we know about Targ genetics suggests Rhaego would have had dark hair, not silver.

At the time the book was released, it was believed to be Rhaego because we hadn't been introduced to Aegon yet.

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2 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:


Point of fact: everything we know about Targ genetics suggests Rhaego would have had dark hair, not silver.

At the time the book was released, it was believed to be Rhaego because we hadn't been introduced to Aegon yet.

Why would fAegon use a stallion as a device on his banner he claims to be a Targ not Bracken. Also based on what you say Rhaego would have dark hair and not silver. Genetics, what genetics? Do you know which genes are recessive and wihch are dominant? This is a fantasy series not a biology book. Characters look like the way they are look like because of GRRM not genetics. And copper skin and silver hair pretty much says a Dothraki/Valyrian mix. I hate to repeat myself but not everything has to be different the it seems. Please stop seeing allegories that isn't there and stop looking for something else when things makes sense.

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I suggest it will be more about false saviours than kings. Because ultimately Dany is going to prove the real saviour rather than the true queen. When Aegon takes KL it is going to be in a dire situation, the Faith and Tyrells fighting in the street, house to house, and fuck knows what Cersei will be up to but possibly wildfiring shit to the ground. Then in will sweep Aegon, the saviour of the city and Faith, an answer from the gods to the HS's problem of who to crown and the muck of the current royalty line. Then he'll probably head off to scour his realm of the Ironborn threat, and possibly even pledge his support to the NW against the others.

The stone beast is shaping up to be an alternative to the Others. An alternative to being wightified, a terrible alternative that will come at the cost of a person's children but will allow them life. You're looking at greyscale and a person with greyscale is not likely to be of concern to the Others as they're dead already.

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While everyone sees the claim for the Iron Throne as the similarity between Aegon and Stannis, the more unique similarity between Aegon and Stannis is that the claim that they are the Prince that was Promises. After all, if it was a claim for the throne that was the "lie" needing slaying, why wasn't Renly part of the vision? However, it is only Aegon and Stannis that have had the claim made that they are the PTWP. This makes it more likely that the lie is about this. Since the release of the sample Aeron chapter, it is clear that Euron is the Stone Beast, since he claims that he will become a god.

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51 minutes ago, Wolf of The Wall said:

Why would fAegon use a stallion as a device on his banner he claims to be a Targ not Bracken. I hate to repeat myself but not everything has to be different the it seems. Please stop seeing allegories that isn't there and stop looking for something else when things makes sense.

He's standing in front of a banner, it doesn't say it's his banner. The golden company is behind him.

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Also based on what you say Rhaego would have dark hair and not silver. Genetics, what genetics? Do you know which genes are recessive and wihch are dominant? This is a fantasy series not a biology book. Characters look like the way they are look like because of GRRM not genetics.

Mendelian genetics, specifically dark hair being dominant over light hair, was a major plot point in the first novel.

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1 hour ago, Damon_Tor said:

He's standing in front of a banner, it doesn't say it's his banner. The golden company is behind him.

Mendelian genetics, specifically dark hair being dominant over light hair, was a major plot point in the first novel.

Books is written by George R. R. Martin not Gregor Mendel. And what about copper skin?

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I don't think the Lannisters fit in any way because the lie of Tommen's parentage is not exactly a well-kept secret. JonCon is being lied to and not a lie himself, and it really doesn't make sense to target team fAegon twice. I don't think it is Euron, either; the imagery doesn't fit at all and he doesn't claim to be a god yet, he only wants to do something to become one. I'm not sure that would classify as a lie.

A great beast taking wing and breathing fire looks pretty much like a dragon to me, and the two dragons with a lie in their lives are Jon (as suggested here), and Dany herself. Jon is a very plausible candidate, and just like Stannis and fAegon is not who he thinks he is, but if R+L indeed married, then Dany's own identity is undermined, as well, because she is neither the only surviving Targaryen nor the heir to the IT. I can't decide which one fits the imagery better but the lie of Jon's parentage is definitely the one in need of slaying, so it perhaps might be Jon.

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22 hours ago, a1andrew said:
I came up with this theory from the House of the Undying prophecies in book two the other day.  I did my homework and everything seems to check out.  From all I can tell, there are a lot of theories floating around about who the Beast of Stone from the House of Undying prophecy is, but I haven't encountered any that come to my conclusion (apologies if there is and I've somehow missed it, I've checked a ton, but its probably impossible to check everything).
 
First, let's start with how I got to my conclusion, and the reasons in favor of that conclusion.  I'll go on to why the other theories don't work later.  The Beast of Stone is paired with two other prophecies under the heading "Mother of Dragons, Destroyer of Lies".  This heading suggests an adversarial relationship with Dany, whereby Dany ends the "lie".  The first one is the easiest to discern: "Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue eyed king who cast no shadow".  That is clearly Stannis, universally acknowledged on the forums and discernable from several different points of information that were provided.  The second one isn't quite as textually provable, but is fairly unanimously recognized nevertheless: "A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd".  Aegon.  The third, "From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire".  This is the only one where there isn't a large consensus on.
 
I start by looking at the most significant and indisputable feature the two identified entities have in common: They are all representative of claimants for the Iron Throne at the end of Dance of Dragons.  The "lie" must be their claim to the throne.  Who is the other claimant at that point?  Tommen.
 
Do I think the "great stone beast" is Tommen, no.  I think it is representative of House Lannister, as a general claimant to the iron throne, whether Tommen, Myrcella  or Cersei.  But if the beast is representative of House Lannister, then how?  There are two strong answers.  First, we have Cersei burning the tower of the hand.  Second, there are suggestions that she will eventually burn even more down, with the constant use of "wildfire" to describe her, and her own thoughts to "burn down" the city under certain circumstance.  So, either way a "smoking tower" would likely fit in quite nicely with House Lannister being represented by the Beast of Stone prophecy.
 
The final, "strong"est evidence is a "great stone beast":  Robert Strong.  He is nearly universally believed to be the person Bran was seeing in book one, when he was described as "a giant in armor made of stone".  Those quotes are essentially just different ways of saying the same thing.  A headless stone giant is clearly a "great stone beast". Personally, it is this comparison that most rings true to me and makes me most confident I'm right.
 
That leaves two remaining elements of textual hints, "takes wing" and "breathes shadow fire".  These are less clearly applicable.  I suspect the former is either metaphor to give a red herring impression of a dragon, or will simply be something that will be eventually revealed.  Although, I've been wondering if instead of meaning the beast flies, it means he "takes" the wing of another, i.e. kills a dragon?  Meanwhile breathing shadow fire may have something to do with poisoned blood.  Maybe a reference to shadow arts having taken his breath?  Or maybe, in the shadows, he helped place the wildfire?  Or maybe he is animated by a form of Shadowbinder magic?  Its not clear what actually animates him.
 
Finally, I can't see any of the alternate theories I've seen out there on this prophecy being correct.  Jon Connington?  He is associated with Aegon, why mention team Aegon twice?  Marwin or the Maesters?  They are not vying for direct control of the iron throne.  It would be like including in the prophecy some of the competing westerosi religions or beliefs.  Sure they may be competing and wrong in some way, but they aren't a direct corollary to Aegon and Stannis, and that opens the door to many more people or groups who could be fit in.  I think Martin was trying for a solid group of three, who are clearly distinct from others.  What else, that is both substantive and distinct from other groups, do Aegon and Stannis have in common besides a claim to the iron throne?  The only thing that could be argued as coming close is the potential of being the prince that was promised.  But, only Stannis considers himself the prince that was promised, that concept is unknown to Aegon.  And no one else compatible is a claimant for that honor anyway.  IMO, its got to be about claimants to the Iron Throne, with the "lie" that Dany destroys being their claim to the throne.  As such, House Lannister is the best bet.  Jon, another popular choice, therefore wouldn't fit, because his claim is as good as hers, and because it looks likely that they will rule together.  The only caveat is Euron Greyjoy.  I did see this theory out there, and its true, he is technically claiming the Iron Throne as well.  This is the only other plausible theory, in my opinion.  However, the ways to reach "from a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire", are MUCH more strained than under the above Lannister theory.  Basically, every way to match that phrase is at least as conjectural as "takes wing" and "breathes shadow fire" is for Lannister.  None are at the level of textual strength as the other two elements are for Lannister.  Moreover, Euron is a less serious obstacle than Lannister.  Team Lannister is therefore a much stronger bet, in my opinion.
 
Finally, what bigger "lie" is there in the entire series than the parentage of Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella?  R+L=J is a bigger "secret", but it lacks the negative connotations of "lie".  The way JTM's parentage fits in with their claim to the throne makes it the perfect anchor for the entire series of "lie" prophecies, and the one Martin would most likely try his best to obscure the most.
 
I'll admit it, I've always been sad that I saw most of the puzzles of ASOIAF solved before I figured them out for myself, and had never really figured one out that I didn't at least see later there was already a theory pushing it, so I've been looking for a good one to solve.  Let me know if you think I've done it. 

I'll stick with the caveat. I suspect Tommen will not live long enough to fave Daenerys. This is one of the toughest visions from the House of the Undying Ones to figure out. I can see that a Lannister could fit with the smoking tower element. And Gregor, a Lannister man, could be described a great stone beast. And since shadow can be associated with death, I can see the connection with breathing shadow fire. 

I would caution against your assumption that Gregor is Bran's giant. He does appear to be the most popular candidate, but Petyr is another verystrong candidate, and Tyrion is another possibility. 

Your theory is about as good as any other, I suppose, but I still like Euron for this. 

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21 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

I think the premise that the lies must involve kingship or a claim to the throne is wrong. There isn't any universal code deciding which royal claims are true and which are false; as Varys says, it's all just an illusion that people buy into, made real by that belief. If Stannis, Aegon or anyone else takes the throne and unites the realm with them as king, they're the kings, same as any other historical ruler who won a war for a crown they didn't necessarily have a right to.

I also think the connection between the Stone Beast and the Lannister cause is too abstract. As you say, with Stannis and Aegon it's fairly obvious. Stannis is easily identified by his unique sword, distinct eyes and the specific description of his non-existent shadow, and Aegon's life and circumstances clearly match the picture of a fake dragon being held up for the sake of the masses. There's nothing and no one that so far matches the depiction of a stone beast breathing shadowfire launching off a smoking tower, and I assume that's because it hasn't actually happened yet. Stannis was the subject of the first vision and was the first to be introduced, Aegon was the subject of the second vision and was the second to be introduced, so I assume the third will be the third to appear, and will do so in future.

My take is that the lies pertain to objective falsehoods that are all related to Dany. Stannis is almost certainly not Azor Ahai, that's what his vision depicts (hero with a glowing sword), and it pertains to Dany in that she probably is Azor Ahai. Aegon is almost certainly not a real Targaryen, that's what his vision depicts (metaphoric dragon), and it pertains to Dany in that she is the real Targaryen heir. I believe the third has yet to be revealed, but will involve either Melisandre (who wants to raise a stone dragon, and who has powers over shadow and flame) or Euron, who is being built up as a magical, hostile figure who wants control over a dragon, both of whom are well-known for being misleading. 

The reason I like Euron for this is that in addition to the Baratheon-Lannister currently occupying the Iron Throne, and our fair protagonist, Daenerys Targaryen, we have three claimants to the Iron Throne: Stannis, Aegon, and Euron. (Renly died before Daenerys ventured into the House of the Undying Ones.) I have some ideas how to relate the other elements of the vision to Euron, but as you sguest, those elements may not have appeared in the tale yet. 

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21 hours ago, Damon_Tor said:

It's relevant to Dany because Lothston -> Whent. Cat Stark's mother was a Whent, Sansa carries their genes. Petyr Baelish is Lord of Harrenhal. Or did you think that subplot was just going nowhere?

Ooh, I never thought, nor have I ever seen any suggestion, of putting Petyr in this vision. 

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