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What should we expect from the Vale?


LordImp

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The Riverlands don't need the Vale to help them. They will rid themselves of the Lannisters and Freys all by themselves.

And the mountain passes are closed due to snow since late ASoS. That's why Sandor and Arya couldn't go to Lysa. It only got worse since then, not better. I mean, you do know that they even had to leave the Eyrie because it is getting to cold up there, right?

If the Lords of the Vale do anything they will have to leave the Vale by ship. And that means they will most likely send out only a fraction of their strength anyway.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The Riverlands don't need the Vale to help them. They will rid themselves of the Lannisters and Freys all by themselves.

And the mountain passes are closed due to snow since late ASoS. That's why Sandor and Arya couldn't go to Lysa. It only got worse since then, not better. I mean, you do know that they even had to leave the Eyrie because it is getting to cold up there, right?

If the Lords of the Vale do anything they will have to leave the Vale by ship. And that means they will most likely send out only a fraction of their strength anyway.

It wasn't 6 months ago that you were arguing against my assertion that the Riverlands would evict the Lannisters and reclaim control of their lands. If I recall, at the time you were saying the Riverlands are devestated, has little to no strength left and will be unable to play a significant part in any potential "Northern alliance", should something like that be proposed. Now you seem to feel they indeed have the power to free themselves? (Something I have said from the start, of course).

Anyway, my point was not that the Vale would go and rescue the Riverlands. My point was that the Vale can join with the Riverlands in an alliance against their enemies. Or generally perform a useful role considering their untapped strength and plentiful remaining resources. It will be interesting to see what happens if Sansa becomes Lady of the Vale via marriage to Harry AND Lady of the Riverlands through her Tully blood. Then she becomes quite a powerful player in the Game. Of course, should Jon become King, and Rickon somehow disappear from the scene, which I doubt, she would then be lady of Winterfell too.

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44 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It wasn't 6 months ago that you were arguing against my assertion that the Riverlands would evict the Lannisters and reclaim control of their lands. If I recall, at the time you were saying the Riverlands are devestated, has little to no strength left and will be unable to play a significant part in any potential "Northern alliance", should something like that be proposed. Now you seem to feel they indeed have the power to free themselves? (Something I have said from the start, of course).

You don't really seem to read my stuff. I never said the Riverlords needed outside help to deal with their enemies. They have a very effective guerilla movement with the brotherhood and other outlaws, and it is also quite clear that the Riverlords at large only wait for the moment that their hostages are freed to strike back.

What's unbelievable is the idea that the Riverlands still have the strength to raise a proper army to challenge any of the powerful players in a pitched battle. They can defend their homes and oust the present occupying forces, that's it. If the Lannisters raised another 10,000-20,000 men in the West they would lose everything again, of course. And the same would go if Aegon or Euron or any other pretender ended up invading the Riverlands.

44 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Anyway, my point was not that the Vale would go and rescue the Riverlands. My point was that the Vale can join with the Riverlands in an alliance against their enemies. Or generally perform a useful role considering their untapped strength and plentiful remaining resources. It will be interesting to see what happens if Sansa becomes Lady of the Vale via marriage to Harry AND Lady of the Riverlands through her Tully blood. Then she becomes quite a powerful player in the Game. Of course, should Jon become King, and Rickon somehow disappear from the scene, which I doubt, she would then be lady of Winterfell too.

While Edmure and Catelyn are still alive Sansa is not going to claim the Riverlands. Not to mention that Lord Baelish is now technically the Lord Paramount there, a decision that might be confirmed by King Aegon VI - if the Vale was to help him in the coming struggles.

But the Vale giving away its food to the starving Riverlanders isn't going to help them in the war effort. The Riverlanders are done as a power in their own right. They could at best give one of the claimants their moral support, but nobody going to convince them to raise another army to help some pretender to this or that throne. Not in winter.

In addition, how do you imagine the Vale feeding the Riverlands in winter. The Trident will be soon frozen shut, preventing any ships from reaching the hinterlands. And while order is not yet restored in the Riverlands - and that's not going to happen soon, either because, you know, ousting the Lannisters and Freys will be a difficult task and even when that's done that's not going to equal peace and quiet - the food is going to end up with the people who have the power to take it, not the people who desperately need it.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Okay, this plot is one of the most complex, as stated above, due to how many variables there are in place.

Now, my two cents, although I am sure I have said a lot of the stuff in other threads.

Shadrich is not going to kidnap Sansa because that is not what he is there to do.  I believe, though, that he told the truth (but with a twist) re working for Varys.  I believe he does work for Varys.  Now, I hope not to get too out of topic here but Varys seems very pro Aegon...  I personally think he is playing Illyrio and truly backing Dany (after all she has the dragons), or keeping him as a potential in case she agrees to marry him.  She has the strength, not him, and likely he hasn't the legitimacy either. (I totally back that he is Illyrio's kid. As Tyrion pointed out why so much gold and effort to sit a total blank canvas, potentially wild card in the IT - as far as Illyrio is concerned).  Anyhow, Varys went to great pains to "head-hunt" Tyrion for a job.  He contributed to him being convicted, helped him escape... Varys doesn't just follow Jaime's wishes... put into his head that his life could be worthwhile if he served Dany, then put him in the path of Aegon/FAegon.  Why?  I think to show him a measure of the young "too perfect" prince and to use Tyrion as a "product tester."  Now, things have likely gone a bit out of Varys' hands where Tyrion is concerned because of his many troubles and tribulations in ADWD, still, Tyrion is about to join and help Barristan and Co.  Barry could refuse him but hey,he handed them the Second Sons and they need all the help they can get.  Sorry I know it seems like this should be in a different tread altogether but it all links nicely.

Now, what if the Mad Mouse is just there as as a source of intel and a vehicle of communication, potentially between a Sansa that will grow more and more worried as his cousin's medications become more obviously dodgy, who may reach out to Tyrion.  The moment Tyrion joins Dany, with or without Dany in sight, it is only a matter of time before the world knows.  I know Tyrion has every reason to want Robin dead but I think this is something he once thought but has long been forgotten, and hey, this is all speculation in my part and this is getting too big lol so will expand on that at some point but here is too off topic.

The Sansa chapters are very ambiguous as to her wishes, on purpose "me thinks."  One moment she is happy to go with Baileys etc, the next she is not, then she thinks fondly of the little dwarf, the next she is seducing Harry...  My bet is that all her thoughts are true but the human mind is complex and one come have conflicting thoughts (and this is very convenient for George).  Also, we know for a fact that she witnessed Dontos' death.  Surely, even if he sold her for coin she did not like that.  She got the revelation from LF as to Joffrey's murder and the fact that he "framed her!" and Tyrion (he mentioned the hairnet)  She appeared sad that Tyrion would be executed most likely.  She never said how she felt about being framed herself (which to me is the most interesting part - the lack of mention).  Of course there is nothing she can do if she wants to stay alive and safe.  So, she plays retarded maiden to LF.  Yet, with the Lysa's death questioning by the Lords of the Vale, her point of view makes it clear that she lies because she is thinking of her own survival.

Now, Robin. He has said to her he suspects Harry wants him dead.  You don't need to be a rocket scientist to gather that if she marries Harry, Robin dies.  If she marries Robin, he dies too.  Maybe LF hopes Harry would do this.  I doubt Harry would though, ambitious as he appears there are fine lines between "wanting" and "doing."  Whereas I understand her reluctance to marry, being married to Tyrion is the excuse though but not much use since her identity is theoretically not know, it could also esteem from the fact that whoever she marries gets the chop, unless it is LF or there is some divine intervention.  She knows LF has poisoned before, or conspired to do so and she saw Dontos die.  She knows this man is dangerous.  Part of her likes him (outwardly) because he could grant her every wish (just not the lives of Robin or Harry or the food for their vassals).

Now, she knows where the food is!!! This could be tinfoil, as all the rest, lol, but it seems a bit too coincidental that the tribes of the Vale will likely starve in winter (them, and the peasants that could join them in a revolt... maybe not likely but hey, when there is no food, what is there to lose?), that her husband promised them the Vale in book 1 and that she is unlikely to enjoy seeing people starve so that LF can get yet more money.  Sandrich could be just a means to communication (method unknown... raven I guess...)  For Tyrion to believe this, maybe they need to produce either a line (like in the show with Ty to Jon) or a piece of fabric of a gown maybe he gave her or something of that ilk.

Granted, Tyrion and Sansa interaction is something I love so I could be way off.... here and just making it fit my own fanfic mind but I don't think all of this is wrong.... Some of it, sure, else I am telepathic lol!

In any event, hoarding food in winter will inevitably end in a revolt from the poor. When you are certainly going to die, nothing stops you.  Whilst the Eyrie may be un-impregnable, I don't think the Gates of the Moon are, for peasants in large numbers possibly with the clans on toe!  And when Dany lands in Westeros, they will need food for sure!!!  In any event, that is for later in Winds. 

The tourney:  I think Harry gets his wings and ends up commander of them.  Hence 3 years of no marriage, but marriage promise (if he accepts, which I suspect he will) for LF to figure out if this is the best course of action or not.

Now, if Aegon is known as a potential winner for IT before the tournament (we have released chapters but not their timelines) LF certainly would bide for time, as would Tyrion if he has any sense re various matters.

Sansa cannot easily be placed in WF just yet.  The Boltons have to go.  Let Stannis do the job...Not impossible that LF, family from Braavos (but mayhaps far-fetched) convinced the IB to back him.  So Boltons gone, Stannis, a crackpot from the south who allows his priestess to burn people... the northerners will rebel sooner or later.  Time for Sansa! (but not before Stannis' death).

I can see it all contracting (as it must do if we are to be done in two books).

So basically, what I see:  Harry gets his wings - great honour but cannot be married for 3 years - betrothed to Sansa and much and more can happen in 3 years lol

News of Aegon reach the Vale - Vale neutral on LF's effort for as long as they can, or until there is gain for him.  Okay, could put Sansa forward for Aegon's wife.  Aegon wanted Danny, and she has dragons.  Now, Arienne is much more of a seductress than Sansa and she is heading his way right now.  My vote is he marries Arienne.  Plus Sansa comes from the Usurper's blood line in Ned...

Sadrich feeds Varys, who puppeteers Tyrion to a point, intel very likely with "Lady Alayne's" consent.

Now, my true, true tinfoil one on this (laugh if you must).  Myranda Royce could have married Harry if she had the dowry.  What is Sansa, secretly provided that for them? in exchange for help, like allowing Targs or even Tyrion into the castle (possible in "ADOS"*)

Will see go North? Oh, yes, but I feel they are "all" going North  and they will all hole up at WF, because okay too long a topic and again too unrelated, but I do believe WF has "diplomatic immunity with the Others" (Brandon the Builder etc, etc... long story...).

Will she kidnap or go to KL?  Even if she were to marry Aegon, say, sounds short lived and pointless from a narrative point of view.  My view is no, or no yet.

Yes, LF will see his downfall (death or not not sure how I would do it myself).  I would take more sadistic pleasure from stripping him from power and leaving him alive to "feel it."  However, like Tyrion he is likely to escape lol.  My fav would be that Ty and Sansa take him down together since hell he really was hell bent on having him killed... Doubt it will happen and the timeline is wrong unless LF is alive at the end of Winds, which could happen... 

Anyhow, I have had fun just brainstorming here ;)

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It really depends on what the endgame for Sansa is. In terms of her overall character arc, the Vale seems to be a proving ground for her coming of age and playing the Game given how detached it seems to be from the rest of the plot. It really seems to be too late to use the Knights of the Vale to seize the North as the conflict between Stannis and the Boltons is nearing it's climax already. I'm more inclined to think that Sansa will somehow serve Littlefinger his comeuppance, as that would be poetic justice, but that could just as easily be my desires bleeding into things. I'm wondering if the Vale might not end up siding with Aegon. Littlefinger certainly has no qualms about changing sides when it suits him. The specific mention of Baelish sending for tapestries from Cersei makes me wonder. King Robert's hunting tapestries wouldn't have any value, but I'm wondering if the Darry tapestries of the Targaryen kings could've been slipped in among them at some point. A visible sign of "Look we're on your side and loyal" could get Littlefinger in with Aegon. Sansa certainly would be all for revenge on the Lannisters, and might even make an attractive wedding option for the would be king. Assuming Arianne doesn't beat her to the punch.

 

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1 hour ago, Lord Lannister said:

It really depends on what the endgame for Sansa is. In terms of her overall character arc, the Vale seems to be a proving ground for her coming of age and playing the Game given how detached it seems to be from the rest of the plot. It really seems to be too late to use the Knights of the Vale to seize the North as the conflict between Stannis and the Boltons is nearing it's climax already. I'm more inclined to think that Sansa will somehow serve Littlefinger his comeuppance, as that would be poetic justice, but that could just as easily be my desires bleeding into things. I'm wondering if the Vale might not end up siding with Aegon. Littlefinger certainly has no qualms about changing sides when it suits him. The specific mention of Baelish sending for tapestries from Cersei makes me wonder. King Robert's hunting tapestries wouldn't have any value, but I'm wondering if the Darry tapestries of the Targaryen kings could've been slipped in among them at some point. A visible sign of "Look we're on your side and loyal" could get Littlefinger in with Aegon. Sansa certainly would be all for revenge on the Lannisters, and might even make an attractive wedding option for the would be king. Assuming Arianne doesn't beat her to the punch.

 

The tapestries were given to Lord Nestor Royce as a gift iirc. From the Alayne sample chapter in Winds

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I agree that the Vale is one of the most compelling and uncertain plot lines remaining.  I think LF hangs in there until the end of TWOW and more likely than not some of ADOS.  Sansa is going to lose her virginity on the page at some point because GRRM can't help himself - maybe to Harry - but I don't see her getting married (I could see her mothering a bastard).

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1 hour ago, Lucius Lovejoy said:

I agree that the Vale is one of the most compelling and uncertain plot lines remaining.  I think LF hangs in there until the end of TWOW and more likely than not some of ADOS.  Sansa is going to lose her virginity on the page at some point because GRRM can't help himself - maybe to Harry - but I don't see her getting married (I could see her mothering a bastard).

She can t get legally married until tyrion is dead or litlefinger uses his magic to make the high septon anule the marriage.

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On 8/18/2017 at 11:54 PM, LordImp said:

Mad mouse can also just send word to Varys that Sansa is in the Vale. 

Exactly, although there is no way to categorically say that we are right...  Still, Varys is a mystery in many ways and his true intentions are yet unknown. My wagger is that he is playing Illyrio, or having a plan B in any event and that that is why he said to dying Kevan that he was all out for Aegon... his birds would report to Illyrio as well..  Okay, topic for another thread though. ;)

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7 hours ago, Euron Lannister said:

Sansa can't marry, but Alayne can

 

Maybe sansa can also play the "wrong religion" card, if she wants to.

And what would be the punishment when people found out she was sansa and had 2 husbands? I think we can assume neither she nor LF want her to be alayne for ever.

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15 hours ago, divica said:

And what would be the punishment when people found out she was sansa and had 2 husbands? I think we can assume neither she nor LF want her to be alayne for ever.

If sche plans on crowning herself queen in the north etc. she could simply change the laws and give herself the right to anull marriages.

 

now that i think about it, LF could also trick tommen or cersei to give the right to anull marriages to the king or even local lords instead of the HS.

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I don't think obtaining an annulment should be too much of a problem, especially if the High Sparrow is no longer in charge at the time this is requested (and I can't see him lasting long to be honest).  Either party can request it, so even Sansa herself would suffice provided she can prove it was not consummated.  However, I cannot see Tyrion objecting to it either.  Okay, he may feel rejected yet again but I don't believe he ever wanted her locked in a marriage to him against her wishes now that Tywin is out of the picture.  I personally think that it will be her who will delay this as, in many ways, this is her insurance policy.

I agree, without an annulment even if married as "Alayne," this could cause problems for her.  Yes, she could claimed she was made to marry in a sept where she could claim to follow the old gods.  Still, Tyrion followed the Seven as did Catelyn and at best this would be an inter-faith marriage.  I am not even sure what would happen if they had married under R'hollor or something, that neither of them followed.  Anyway, non consummation is enough if requested by either party (don't have the quote but I believe George said as much).

Still, I keep coming back to this point.  If she marries either Robin or Harry, or one first then the other, they get the chop.  Sure if he marries Harry, Robin has to go so unless she is prepared to sacrifice him, LF has to at least be completely neutralised first.  I think her feelings re Harry appeared confused on purpose.  Even though she finds him physically attractive her first thoughts are of mistrust, even before he is rude to her, although she had really hoped that he would like her "at least a bit."  I think this is because she can't really afford to disappoint LF and that she is flirting because she has too and also possibly out of pride, as it can be very satisfying specially as a teen to turn someone over to you after they acted so rudely, plus I think she is enjoying testing her seduction skills.  Still I don't think she wants to see him dead for all his arrogance and I don't doubt she realises that once she is Lady of the Vale and has a child to secure the succession, LF would get rid of the husband and try to marry her himself.  I keep thinking that George is keeping her thoughts contradictory so that he doesn't spoil the plot too much.  

Still, if LF is to be believed, and we know that he can adapt tactics very quickly, he wants her to "come clean" on her wedding. This involves the Lannister rule being very weak or having ended. He needs time, hence a betrothal but no imminent plans for the wedding.  Of course, all fits perfectly if Harry gets wings, i.e. 3 years for either Tyrion to die, for an annulment or whatever.  Given that the HS appears rather "contraire" if I were LF I would rather wait for a more amenable High Secton, although, this being said, HS is not above bribery when it suits him (like he wiped off the Crown's debt to the Faith for the right to be armed...).  Still, if Tyrion were to die in these 3 years period it would make matters a lot easier for LF.  I really, really think that Harry is not going to die immediately and that he will get wings.  Now, from a narrative point of view this leaves Sansa with little to do for the next book and this brings me to the point that she will be instrumental in ensuring that the food is used when needed.  Also, yes she is honing her courtier skills but still she has to do something significant in Winds or she will just turn boring to read.  She definitely wants the North, either for herself or her siblings if she discovers they are alive.  The smart thing is to let the Boltons and Stannis cancel each other out, whether she will realise this and be happy to wait or whether she will be unable to make a move due to LF hard to say.  Still, she may spend a good part of the book figuring out who could be her potential allies upon her identity revelation and who backs LF and who doesn't (a process that has already started if you think about her trying to figure out Lynn Corbray).

I wagger one of the issues that got George stuck in this book are the timelines.  Some pair her with Harry (but Tyrion is in the way and Tommen in the IT), some with Robin (who would just die shortly after if this were to happen), some with Aegon (but I am almost certain that Arianne will get there before anyone else), many fans with Sandor (whose fate is still unknown but everything points out to him being in Quiet Island).  Again, not impossible that he could show up at the tourney or something in some shape or manner, still cannot happen yet (if at all).  A much less popular theory is that she will end up with Tyrion anyway, still nope yet at least, they are worlds apart and on their own personal journeys.  So it would appear that romance is not really on the cards for Sansa in Winds, unless a secret one with Petyr himself but I would give that like a 1% chance, so whatever her role in the Vale's plot and beyond I personally think it is some kind of preparation for what will come in ADOS.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
11 hours ago, Euron Lannister said:

i doubt, he is reckless, but not stupid, he will try to sleep with her in a more romantic way, and will fail all over.

I agree here, he may try to kiss her again or something but he won't go that far as to try to rape her.  He wants her to become Lady of the Vale first and then he will get rid of whoever is in the way and try to sell her the idea to marry him but I think this is just his plan but much and more will happen in the meantime and will not get the opportunity to try to marry her at all.  I think the fact that he caused, and not that indirectly the War of the 5 Kings will become known before that.

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  • 2 months later...

I know this is a forum about the books, but one thing I really liked about the show in season 6 and 7 was that it seemed like Sansa was in position to be the next Dany. Here's someone with many things taken from her, but still prevailing and having people rally behind her. Let's say Martin plugs Sansa in the upcoming book into a role similar to the one Dany was in in the first. This is crazy shot in the dark speculation that won't come close to happening anyway, but fuck it, it's on my mind.

Sansa is an innocent girl who probably cares little for power and just wants a safe life after running from one problem to another like Dany was. She's getting married off to a stranger with no idea what the outcome will be at the whim of someone else (LF). The Vale knights are like the dothraki. Sure, at the end of FFC, LF is talking of knights and lords rallying behind a Stark to conquer her homeland. What if their (and LF) idea of war is not glorious battle, but just sacking poorly defended cities and razing villages of the north while a lot of their inhabitants are off fighting for either Bolton or Stannis. Suddenly Sansa is turned off by this and does not want anymore, no matter what it is for. Maybe Harry falls and the Vale men abandon her. Eventually she'll find out LF has been the cause of everything. all will be lost to her. but, just like Dany at the end of GoT and throughout CoK, through luck and cunning, she gets fighters to rally behind her. Not to destroy kingdoms or reclaim lands, but to fight the Others. I would love to see Sansa become an inspiration or significant hero in the long night to come. Who will rally behind her though? maybe Nymeria recognizes her and leads her army of wolves against the others. Why not?

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  • 2 weeks later...
On ‎8‎/‎22‎/‎2017 at 8:40 PM, Lord Varys said:

Why not? Varys' more important agents most likely do not travel with the royal navy or something of that sort. And chances are that he went to Duskendale to catch a ship there to carry him to Gulltown due to the fact that the harbor in KL wasn't working normally at that point. 

There is no longer a Lannister-Tyrell alliance. That ended with Cersei/Mace had Ser Kevan Lannister murdered. And Aegon is only going to take the Iron Throne if he beats the Tyrell army marching against Storm's End. If does that the Reach is not going to march against him a second time. At least not while they are still sworn to Tommen. Reach Lords joining Euron might march against him eventually but not those sworn to Tommen. Tommen is a joke and also greatly angered the Reach when he did not send them immediate aid against the Ironborn.

This isn't the topic here, but it is pretty obvious that Varys manipulated/expected both Jaime and Tyrion to do what they did, and he most certainly would have killed Tywin himself if Tyrion hadn't done - to blame this murder on Tyrion, too.

What? Varys murdered Kevan to prevent him from repairing what havoc Cersei had wrought.  In order for Aegon to be the savior of the kingdoms, there has to be a kingdom needing saving. Forgive me if I misunderstood your point or missed a previous comment, but Cersei/Mace did not have Kevan killed.

As far as Sansa and the Vale, I think there are a few things that we need to keep in mind pertaining to Littlefinger in order to grasp the whole picture of Vale politics.

1. The only reason that Littlefinger took an interest in Sansa is because she looks like Catelyn. I don't have my copy of Game handy, but I believe that he originally met Sansa and Arya while Ned was still alive, but took a liking to Sansa over Arya.  We can quibble on whether it is because she is older, or was more interested in courtly matters, etc, but I think it really boils down to Sansa looking like Catelyn. Ultimately, LF lusted for Catelyn (I wouldn't use love, though I am sure he thinks of it that way).

2. As we all know, Littlefinger wanted Catelyn's hand but was too lowborn. He then attempted to duel Brandon for it, for which he was gravely injured.  I think it was these two insistences that greatly formed Littlefinger into who he is.  As Catelyn notes, he always had a nature that was more clever over wise, but like in real life or anyone who is a parent knows, when a child is born they have a general disposition (fussy, calm, excitable, etc) and their life experiences augment that disposition into a personality, good and bad. I think this is what happened with Littlefinger.  He has become obsessed about gaining power, but he also knows himself. He knows he will never be a warrior, so he doesn't try.

3. BUT, as Catelyn notes, he is more clever than wise.  I am guessing he was hoping that Ned would be killed and somehow he would be able to marry a now widowed Catelyn, which really shows how little he understands love. I think that he was still angling for as much power as he could amass while still aligning with the Lannister's until the Red Wedding happened.  I believe it was at that time that he threw in with the Tyrell's to kill Joffrey because he had no loyalty to that point.

So, what can we garner from this?

I think Sansa's learned manipulation and flirtation of Harry the Heir, while plotted and instructed by Littlefinger, will start to drive him mad. I truly believe he is going to rape Sansa, though I think he will think it is consensual.  I also think this will occur before she is able to have sex with anyone else. He brags too much about having taken Lysa and Cat's (or so he thinks) maidenhead, and I feel the same thoughts will preoccupy him with Sansa.

As far as overall plot arc,  in order for Harry to mean anything, Sweetrobin has to die. If Harry dies first, then we will have to find the next heir, and so on and so forth. I am not saying that Harry doesn't die, but I think he will become Lord of the Vale first.

 

 

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