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Another (f)Aegon thread I guess


King Ned Stark

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Let me start off by stating this isn't so much a theory as an attempt to understand some things that seem inconsistent, at least to me.  I'll attempt to turn these jumbled thoughts into a cohesive post, which may prove troublesome as I am not good with the timeline.

From what I can gather, Aerys ll was married and had a child with his sister-wife Rhaella by the time he was 15 or 16.  A few years later he came into the throne after an illness took his father.  After Rhaegar, Aerys and Rhaella are unsuccessful for quite some time at having another child.  Rhaella has miscarriages in 263 and 264, a stillborn baby in 267, another child that lives only half a year in 269, another stillbirth in 270, another miscarriage in 271, a premature baby in 272 that dies shortly thereafter, and finally Viscerys is born in 276.

At this point Rhaegar is sixteen or seventeen years old and still unmarried, without even a betrothal.  Now it's possible that Aerys was waiting in the hopes that a daughter, and suitable bride for Rhaegar, would be born.  I more or less believe that's how it started, but question if Aerys's motives changed after all of the failed pregnancies and as Rhaegar grew into his majority.

A short year after Viscerys's birth (give or take), we have the incident known as the Defiance of Duskendale in 277.  Whilst in a war council with Rhaegar and others, someone proclaims that Lord Darklyn will execute the king should they storm the castle, Tywin replies in a Tywinesque manner, "he may or he may not, but if he does we have a better king right here," where he lifted his hand to indicate Rhaegar.

At this point Rhaegar must be around 18 years old and still not betrothed, but quite possibly already well versed in politics, schemes, and perhaps prophecy.  We also know from Areo Hotah that "someone always tells".  So it seems likely that this got back to Aerys.

TWoIaF tells us that a distrust was growing between father and son, and the DoD incident likely intensified that rift.  If Aerys was not working against Rhaegar and trying to undermine him politically before Duskendale, it seems quite plausible that he was after the Defiance.

At this point in the story, somewhere around 278 AC, Aerys finally begins looking for a bride for Rhaegar.  He spurns Cersei because "a king does not marry his heir to a servants daughter", which is silly, because everyone in the kingdom is a servant in Aerys's eyes.  It's possible he rejected the offer because he thought Tywin and Rhaegar conspired at his death at Duskendale.

This leaves the problem of whom shall Rhaegar marry, Catelyn and Lyanna are spoken for, Cersei has been rejected, and Elia apparently ignored at this point.  Aerys therefore sends Steffon across the narrow sea to find a bride of Valyrian blood, or possible to find a bride that will bring Rhaegar no natural allies.  When this fails, Aerys turns to Elia Martell.

What we know of Elia Martell is that she was born premature, was not expected to live past infancy, and was unable to travel in her youth because of her frail condition. Tywin refused a betrothal between Jaime and Elia, as well as Oberyn and Cersei.  While Tywin seemed to have a good reason for the latter (saving Cersei for the prince), no reason is given for the former.  Tywin even offers an infant Tyrion for Elia, who Tywin may or may not have cared at this point if Tyrion had any children of his own.  Is it possible that Elia's delicate health was known well enough that Tywin would refuse over the fear that she may struggle to produce an heir?

Aerys had experience with a child born premature in 272, but chose a woman of known health issues for his heir, but only after having a second, and possibly more desirable, heir in Viscerys.

Rhaegar is married in 279 (in which Aerys did not attend), and early in 280 AC Rhaenys is born (in which Aerys states "smells" Dornish).  This could be the usual Aerys being a jerk, or it could be Aerys being suspicious of Elia's ability to have such a healthy child.  Elia, nevertheless, is bedridden for half a year which takes us to the middle to late of 280 AC.  Despite being bedridden for 6 months, roughly a year later Elia and Rhaegar again try to conceive; and again, against the odds, have a healthy baby, a boy named Aegon who can be Rhaegar's heir (and the crux of many theories and much debate).

Aegon is born early in 282, close to when Rhaegar takes to the rose with a half dozen companions on a journey that will ultimately lead him back to the Riverlands. It is said the Elia nearly died from giving birth to Aegon, and yet still Rhaegar takes to the road shortly thereafter?  There are still some difficulties ahead, chiefly:

Quote

"Aegon," he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe...

"Will you make a song for him?" the woman asked.

aCoK - House of the Undying

I found it hard to rationalize how Elia, who was nearly killed by childbirth, was nursing newborn (around a month old or younger) and chatting casually with Rhaegar, who then soon leaves.  But earlier, in the same chapter:

Quote

"Sights and sounds of days gone by and days to come and days that never were."

aCoK - Pyatt Pree 

Prophecy aside, Rhaegar had every right to fear trying to enforce his daughter as heir when there was another viable male candidate, especially if rumors were floating about Aerys passing him over for Viscerys.  He wants to call a great council, but wants to do so from a position of strength.  What if mostly everything we know is wrong?  Perhaps Rhaegar initiated the Tourney of Harrenhal not just in hopes of calling a Great Council, but also in hopes of finding a suitable second wife.

He needs to stall for time, and here enters old long con himself, Doran, brother to Elia:

Quote

"I mean to take you to the water gardens, there are lessons to be learned there, if you have the wit to see them."

Doran Martell

Barristan says Elia was kind and clever, with a sweet wit.  She would have learned those lessons with Doran.

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...the king was wise enough to see that the good of thousands must come before the good of two, even if those two were dear to him.

and

As the children splashed among the pools, a realization came to Danaerys, she could not tell the high-born from the low.

- Doran Martell

 

GrrM has stated that Elia was dutiful, and her situation with Rhaegar complicated.  What would be more complicated than the princess being unable to provide the prince with a male heir, who is in a cold feud with his dangerous and unpredictable father who has a predilection for burning people.  Her status is largely dependent on Rhaegar, who could possibly be disinherited or exiled or worse.  Is it possible, or even plausible, that the first baby swap/stand-in was initiated by Rhaegar and Elia in an attempt to forestall being disinherited?  With the understanding that the male heir from a second marriage would wed Rhaenys, and solidify his claim against Aerys and Viscerys.

Rhaegar possibly had to worry about the northern coalition or STAB and Aerys, just as Aerys had to worry about Rhaegar and the northern coalition.  Rhaegar attemtped to co-opt the northern alliance and use it against his father and Aerys tried to turn them against his son.

I know it's not airtight, and might be chock full of holes, but wanted to see if this has been broached before, or if the great minds of ASoIaF could add, take away, or change the direction of it.  There may be a few things I'm forgetting, but this has dragged on much longer than I'd intended, so, sorry for the length and thx for reading.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Why would they swap they babies out months in advance? The war hadn't started the last time Rhaegar saw Elia. I believe Elias children were still alive when Viserys was named heir apparent but I don't see why they would swap the children out because of succession issues. I believe it COULD happen if it is life or death situation, but not because of the succession. 

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This is pretty good.

15 hours ago, TheDuskyWoman said:

Why would they swap they babies out months in advance? The war hadn't started the last time Rhaegar saw Elia. I believe Elias children were still alive when Viserys was named heir apparent but I don't see why they would swap the children out because of succession issues. I believe it COULD happen if it is life or death situation, but not because of the succession. 

Because as soon as Rhaegar makes his move to depose his father, and possibly before then, there's a real possibility that Aerys will move against Rhaegar's children. Confining Rhaegar at all would make everything public and make Aerys look bad, but King Scab would not have any issue holding little Aegon hostage as a means to keep his son in line.

Once the Rebellion gets going there's even more reason to switch him out, because whether he's within Grandpa Crazy's striking distance or the Rebels reach King's Landing, the kid is in massive danger either way. 

Also having more time to get him safely out, as opposed to a last minute rescue, makes the probability of success higher. The only question would be how does Varys fit in. Did Rhaegar recruit him? Did he switch sides once he realized how truly nuts Aerys was? Was he playing both ends against the middle in hopes he could keep from getting killed by either side?

 

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Dude.  Just stop.  They didn't swap the children before the war.  That's beyond silly.  If Aegon is who Varys says he is, then the Pisswater Prince story is most likely correct.  If he's a pretender, then who knows, but that would be revealed.  However, Elia taking part in swapping her own child is just ridiculous. 

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On 9/4/2017 at 10:23 PM, LindsayLohan said:

Dude.  Just stop.  They didn't swap the children before the war.  That's beyond silly.  If Aegon is who Varys says he is, then the Pisswater Prince story is most likely correct.  If he's a pretender, then who knows, but that would be revealed.  However, Elia taking part in swapping her own child is just ridiculous. 

Elia taking part is a major tenet of the baby swap happening during the war. It's really unlikely it could have been done without her knowledge and consent. Otherwise she'd be the first to raise the alarm because her son is missing.

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On 9/4/2017 at 11:23 PM, LindsayLohan said:

Dude.  Just stop.  They didn't swap the children before the war.  That's beyond silly.  If Aegon is who Varys says he is, then the Pisswater Prince story is most likely correct.  If he's a pretender, then who knows, but that would be revealed.  However, Elia taking part in swapping her own child is just ridiculous. 

Amen'ish...

The whole swap-o-rama series of theories is silly. And as you mention Elia taking part in it is ridiculous.

I've recently posted that a pretender does not have to be legitimate. In fact that those that support a pretender don't care in the slightest about legitimacy since their intent is regime change. And further that the current holders of the throne don't care about legitimacy since they want to quash any revolt by a pretender.

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There were no babyswaps in Kings Landing.

fAegon is a fake, and not the son of Rhaegar and Elia.

If one child could have been gotten out of the nursery and the Red Keep during the Sack, both of them could have been - for that matter, so too could Elia Martell have been gotten out, or at least, concealed in the secret passages until things had calmed down.

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@King Ned Stark

I think you are confused about a major point here. Aerys did not choose Elia for Rhaegar. Rhaegar chose her himself, probably for her potential Targaryen genes (from Dornish Daenerys a few generations back) in order to create a prophecy-fulfilling baby. The whole point of the "smells Dornish" comment is to highlight that Aerys was not a fan of Rhaegar marrying Elia. Also, he did not even attend their wedding.

That said I don't understand your basic premise at all. How would swapping Aegon with a fake baby accomplish anything? Why would it forestall being officially disinherited? I assume that in this proposed scenario Aerys would be unaware of the swap... I'm confused :P 

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On 9/6/2017 at 5:19 AM, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

@King Ned Stark

I think you are confused about a major point here. Aerys did not choose Elia for Rhaegar. Rhaegar chose her himself, probably for her potential Targaryen genes (from Dornish Daenerys a few generations back) in order to create a prophecy-fulfilling baby. The whole point of the "smells Dornish" comment is to highlight that Aerys was not a fan of Rhaegar marrying Elia. Also, he did not even attend their wedding.

That said I don't understand your basic premise at all. How would swapping Aegon with a fake baby accomplish anything? Why would it forestall being officially disinherited? I assume that in this proposed scenario Aerys would be unaware of the swap... I'm confused :P 

40 TS & others, will try to reply later and explain more clearly what I was originally saying/asking.  Been really busy this week.

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On 9/6/2017 at 0:32 AM, Wild Bill said:

Amen'ish...

The whole swap-o-rama series of theories is silly. And as you mention Elia taking part in it is ridiculous.

I've recently posted that a pretender does not have to be legitimate. In fact that those that support a pretender don't care in the slightest about legitimacy since their intent is regime change. And further that the current holders of the throne don't care about legitimacy since they want to quash any revolt by a pretender.

As I said above, the only way it works is if Elia is involved. It's not ridiculous to think she'd agree to a plan that saves her son's life.

On 9/6/2017 at 2:30 AM, Kytheros said:

There were no babyswaps in Kings Landing.

fAegon is a fake, and not the son of Rhaegar and Elia.

If one child could have been gotten out of the nursery and the Red Keep during the Sack, both of them could have been - for that matter, so too could Elia Martell have been gotten out, or at least, concealed in the secret passages until things had calmed down.

Kytheros, you will never make a truly great villain. You're just not thinking like one. If Clegane and Lorch get into the Red Keep and Elia and her kids are missing, the entire city gets shut down. All three of them, and anyone helping them end up dead. There's no way to sneak them all out. 

You're also forgetting that Clegane and Lorch were sent directly to the Red Keep to break in. They arrived first and scaled the walls. The rest of the army was busy actually sacking the city. If there had been a wait while the whole Lannister army marched to the castle, then sure there would have been time, but that is not how it went.

From what we know, Rhaenys was probably originally in the nursery with her mother and "Aegon" but she got scared and ran. That not only makes it harder for the bad guys to find her, but also makes it harder for anyone who is trying to get her out to be able to find her. And that doesn't even get into how hard it would be to find a 3-year-old who looks like, talks like, and acts like Rhaenys enough to fool people as long as necessary to get the kids safely away. If they'd known the enemy was going to kill her, they could have just pulled any dark-eyed, dark-haired, vaguely Dornish-looking female toddler off the street, but they were probably expecting Rhaenys to be kept as a hostage. 

Aegon was the son. He was the one at greatest risk. The priority is always the male heir. It's a necessity of the setting. There was no reason to think Elia herself was at risk. Even Tywin says he didn't order Elia's death.

This kind of thing always has to be done at the very last minute. Try and pull it off too son and you'll run into issues like witnesses or people who aren't smart enough to be quiet noticing that something's not right about the little prince and speaking up at exactly the wrong time. 

2 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

We all know that Aegon was swapped for the pisswater prince, who was swapped for Jon, who was swapped for Ashara's dead baby, who was swapped back for the real Aegon

Who was then cryogenically frozen by Bloodraven, who stole the tech from the Others, and switched with both Gilly's child and Aemon Steelsong. 

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On 9/4/2017 at 7:22 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Once the Rebellion gets going there's even more reason to switch him out, because whether he's within Grandpa Crazy's striking distance or the Rebels reach King's Landing, the kid is in massive danger either way. 

Also having more time to get him safely out, as opposed to a last minute rescue, makes the probability of success higher. The only question would be how does Varys fit in. Did Rhaegar recruit him? Did he switch sides once he realized how truly nuts Aerys was? Was he playing both ends against the middle in hopes he could keep from getting killed by either side

Hmm, so there is an imperative to "switch him out" - leaving his sister in limbo... Not to mention the acting required of Elia, shielding false babies (or at least one) as she is slaughtered, though (compared with Gilly, and Val, I guess, not a GRRM stretch)

Varys, Rhaegar, Aerys? - OK,they are the co-conspirators in the fraud. The Crown prosecution presents its case. In pre-trial arguments, Varys and his legal advise contend that they cannot possibly be involved as there is absolutely no evidence about his involvement. The high-judge agrees, and the case against Varys is dismissed. Aerys is a problem since he is dead, but his son Rhaegar is alive, but a fugitive from justice. Nonetheless, Rhaegar's case is also dismissed for lack of evidence. The KC ends the case with the apology that there is no apparent case to be made.

So goes the King's Justice despite the ongoing rebellion...

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15 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Who was then cryogenically frozen by Bloodraven, who stole the tech from the Others, and switched with both Gilly's child and Aemon Steelsong. 

Exactly. BR warged rhaegar's sperm and kept it alive in various animals he was warging for a journey north so it could be used to impregnate gilly! Aemon is TPTWP,  AA reborn and the song of ice and fire!!!!!!!!!!

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17 hours ago, Wild Bill said:

Hmm, so there is an imperative to "switch him out" - leaving his sister in limbo... Not to mention the acting required of Elia, shielding false babies (or at least one) as she is slaughtered, though (compared with Gilly, and Val, I guess, not a GRRM stretch)

Varys, Rhaegar, Aerys? - OK,they are the co-conspirators in the fraud. The Crown prosecution presents its case. In pre-trial arguments, Varys and his legal advise contend that they cannot possibly be involved as there is absolutely no evidence about his involvement. The high-judge agrees, and the case against Varys is dismissed. Aerys is a problem since he is dead, but his son Rhaegar is alive, but a fugitive from justice. Nonetheless, Rhaegar's case is also dismissed for lack of evidence. The KC ends the case with the apology that there is no apparent case to be made.

So goes the King's Justice despite the ongoing rebellion...

No one would have expected Rhaenys to be murdered. As a girl her chances of sitting the throne were pretty low, especially without dragons. If Aerys, Rhaegar, Viserys, and Aegon had all died of some sickness, there probably would have been a Great Council and they most likely would have given the throne to Robert as the next male in line. Rhaenys could have been kept alive as an extremely valuable hostage so there's really no reason anyone would have expected her murder.

The only reason Tywin wanted Rhaenys dead was to get Cersei on the throne. If Rhaegar's daughter had lived, Robert could have been talked into waiting for her to come of age and then marrying her to boost his own claim to the throne (think a tiny Dornish Elizabeth of York). That would have given Robert another decade and change of unimpeded fooling around...not that he was likely to be faithful to any wife.

Elia didn't shield the baby as she was slaughtered. The kid was ripped from her arms and killed and then she was brutally attacked. Besides which why wouldn't she shield an innocent child? If we ignore the fact that the kid was a baby and didn't ask for this, if Elia hadn't been anywhere near the baby even Gregor Clegane might have put together that something was off and it might not be Aegon. It's kind of important for her to pretend it's her kid. And if as the OP suggests the switch occurred earlier than Varys claims, that also gives Elia time to become attached to the little stunt double.

No way Aerys was in on any pre-Trident switch. Varys could certainly get out of it though no matter who was running what kind of inquiry. Wait, how did Aerys end up dead with Rhaegar alive? Is this the tv-movie version, with Perry Maester acting as counsel for the defense?

5 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Exactly. BR warged rhaegar's sperm and kept it alive in various animals he was warging for a journey north so it could be used to impregnate gilly! Aemon is TPTWP,  AA reborn and the song of ice and fire!!!!!!!!!!

Does this mean the direwolf pups are also Rhaegar's? If so I'd like to nominate Shaggydog for The Prince that was Promised.

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2 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Elia didn't shield the baby as she was slaughtered. The kid was ripped from her arms and killed and then she was brutally attacked. Besides which why wouldn't she shield an innocent child?

No way Aerys was in on any pre-Trident switch. Varys could certainly get out of it though no matter who was running what kind of inquiry. Wait, how did Aerys end up dead with Rhaegar alive? Is this the tv-movie version, with Perry Maester acting as counsel for the defense?

I thought about Elia protecting any baby as I posted. You are right.

Ah, you see through my internet anonymity... My assistant, D'ela Street (bastard name from the remote Backalli region) was a bit hasty in her fact checking.

Anyway, on this subject, I'm working backwards. We have an apparent heir, so a swap is necessary. What is the evidence for a swap? None, or little, or something. But why does the heir have to be legitimate? Anybody that looks and acts right will do. It could be a Blackfyre, or Illyerio's child, or some street kid.

All that said, I, realize that we have hit upon the actual solution, and it is brilliant! Better, it creates the long desired, decisive, unification of the Aegon theories into TPTWP.

Quote

Aegon was swapped for the pisswater prince, who was swapped for Jon, who was swapped for Ashara's dead baby, who was swapped back for the real Aegon. Who was then cryogenically frozen by Bloodraven, who stole the tech from the Others, and switched with both Gilly's child and Aemon Steelsong. BR warged rhaegar's sperm and kept it alive in various animals he was warging for a journey north so it could be used to impregnate gilly! Aemon is TPTWP.

However, there is one kink (already) brought up.

Quote

Does this mean the direwolf pups are also Rhaegar's? If so I'd like to nominate Shaggydog for The Prince that was Promised.

D'ela has made up for her mistake about Aerys and Rhaegar with some brilliant mining of extant ephemera.

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D'ela finds some more evidence amongst the ephemera:

What if Bran used time-travel to swap baby Varys from the past with Aegon, then Varys was swapping himself and them swapping himself back? Good thing the Mountain also swapped Aegon (who's really Varys who's really the pisswater prince who's really Varys, unbeknownst even to Varys) with a different random baby just because that other baby's head looked like it would be more fun to smash, otherwise we'd have a paradox.

And a counter agrument:

We've been through this before. As you have acknowledged elsewhere, Bran time-morphed Little Finger with the Mountain and Eddard Stark with Joffery, in OTL, while there is the more speculative Jayne Westerling with Dany, and Ser Jorah with Lord Commander, Ser Jeor (or is it visa versa, I always forget...)

 

 

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This actually isn't that bad of a crackpot, but I still find it unconvincing. If Elia was in on a baby swap, she wouldn't have been clutching onto her fake son when Gregor came for her. At the first sign of danger, it would have been her actual child she'd run to protect. You could argue she was keeping up the act, but that's not how people react when they're panicked.

Another implausibility is this idea that having more babies - in a second marriage which is unlikely to be accepted by most, no less - would secure Rhaegar's claim. As the King, Aerys had the power to name any of his children as heir, regardless of how many children Rhaegar had. In fact, Aerys having a spare heir quashes any theory that includes Rhaegar going after Lyanna because sickly Elia couldn't produce more heirs. It's not so important that Rhaegar has heirs, as it is House Targaryen as a whole having enough heirs, and the King and Queen was clearly still capable of pumping out more of those.

As an aside, I'm glad more and more people are taking note of "Sights and sounds of days gone by and days to come and days that never were" in interpreting the Rhaegar scene. It's clear that part of it, maybe even all of it, was just a vision.

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On 9/7/2017 at 9:13 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

As I said above, the only way it works is if Elia is involved. It's not ridiculous to think she'd agree to a plan that saves her son's life.

Kytheros, you will never make a truly great villain. You're just not thinking like one. If Clegane and Lorch get into the Red Keep and Elia and her kids are missing, the entire city gets shut down. All three of them, and anyone helping them end up dead. There's no way to sneak them all out. 

You're also forgetting that Clegane and Lorch were sent directly to the Red Keep to break in. They arrived first and scaled the walls. The rest of the army was busy actually sacking the city. If there had been a wait while the whole Lannister army marched to the castle, then sure there would have been time, but that is not how it went.

From what we know, Rhaenys was probably originally in the nursery with her mother and "Aegon" but she got scared and ran. That not only makes it harder for the bad guys to find her, but also makes it harder for anyone who is trying to get her out to be able to find her. And that doesn't even get into how hard it would be to find a 3-year-old who looks like, talks like, and acts like Rhaenys enough to fool people as long as necessary to get the kids safely away. If they'd known the enemy was going to kill her, they could have just pulled any dark-eyed, dark-haired, vaguely Dornish-looking female toddler off the street, but they were probably expecting Rhaenys to be kept as a hostage. 

Aegon was the son. He was the one at greatest risk. The priority is always the male heir. It's a necessity of the setting. There was no reason to think Elia herself was at risk. Even Tywin says he didn't order Elia's death.

This kind of thing always has to be done at the very last minute. Try and pull it off too son and you'll run into issues like witnesses or people who aren't smart enough to be quiet noticing that something's not right about the little prince and speaking up at exactly the wrong time.

Sure, the city potentially shuts down once it gets to Tywin that Elia and the children weren't in the Red Keep when Clegane and Lorch got there and he finds out from Pycelle that they had still been in King's Landing. But that wouldn't happen right away.

However, Clegane and Lorch? Their initial assumption is probably that Elia and children had left for Dragonstone before the Lannisters arrived. They go rampaging off in a new direction, and don't tell Tywin right away.

In addition, Varys, and thus presumably Elia, would know that Ned's host isn't far from the city - meaning they wouldn't need to hide from the Lannisters for very long before either the Lannisters weren't in charge anymore and the confusion of handing off control gave them an opportunity to slip out, or the Lannisters were getting attacked in turn.

Plus, there's no indications that anyone on the allied or Lannister sides would have known anything about the secret passages in the Red Keep. Those passages would have been a reasonable place to hide, at least for a while.

And there are limits on how thoroughly King's Landing could be locked down and searched.

If Elia and the children aren't found in initial search of the Red Keep, and in the secret passages they wouldn't be, and nothing turned up after searching the city for a day or so, then it would likely be assumed that they either successfully escaped the city and fled to Dragonstone or Dorne, or that they tried to flee, but got caught up in and anonymously killed during the Sack as random civilian collateral damage, bodies probably burned or otherwise damaged beyond easy recognition.

 

I just don't buy into fAegon being the son of Rhaegar and Elia in truth.

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