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Col Cinders

Golden Company arrives so what?

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Assume the golden company arrives at KL.  Assume that the Lannister army is severely weakened.

What can Cersei do with them?

What are the possible targets?

Stay in KL and bolster the defense.  Ok not a bad use of them if she can feed them

Retake Casterly Rock?  CR is not of importance strategically in the war between Dany and Cersei.  Holding it would mean stripping off a garrison force and that would weaken her army when it has to fight Dany's.

Occupy the twins?  Again that does not protect KL and does not stop Dany from moving.  the twins can be bypassed.

Riverrun? Same as the twins but more so.

Attack the Eyrie?  She might as well just kill those troops and take their stuff for others to use.  Even if she captures Eyrie so what?  It means nothing to Dany at this point.

Dorne?  There are enemies in Dorne.  But they are IN Dorne and won't be coming out anytime soon.  Also Dorne is a long hike and if her troops go there and are needed at KL it is a long hike back.

Head north and attack Winterfel?  Ok this might be an aggressive play.  If she can sack Winterfel and leave it as a totally destroyed ruin then Dany will lose an important outpost in the war against the undead.

Head north and pretend to team up and fight the undead with Dany but turn on them at a critical moment when it appears the undead are routed but before Dany's army can defend.  This seems like a total dick move and it is exactly what I expect from Cersei.

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Season 8.....Cerci will use the battle up north as a diversion and betray the allies with the GC.  That's my guess.

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3 minutes ago, King Louis II (KLII) said:

My Theory is that the Golden Company arrives, but for Danerys, after the Bank of bravos switched sides.

This is what I am hoping for too...but then I am also hoping they just end Cersei's reign this week and have it all be over with so who am I kidding.

In reality, the GC is 10,000 strong.  They basically will just replace the army she lost from the Loot Train battle and Casterly Rock assault.  It shouldn't tip the scales in any meaningful way at the moment.  The combined North/Vale/Wildling/Unsullied/Dothraki is about 125,000 strong, minus whatever losses the Unsullied and Dothraki sustained earlier this season. Even assuming Euron has 1,000 ships, with 30 reavers per ship, Cersei's total force is only 40,000 with the GC, or 1/3 the total strength of Dany's.  Plus of course, Dany has two dragons, which is like having nukes.

What the show will probably do is have Cersei agree to a temporary truce.  Cersei wil get the GC and Euron's forces together on Westeros and just patiently wait until all of the Dany/Jon forces are far north and getting crushed by the Night King.  Let the dead army do her work for her, so to speak.  Eventually, I think valor and duty will overcome Jaime and he will see that there is no victory for the Lannisters either way, and if the Night King crushes the north/Dany forces, it is exponentially more men to have to stave off when they ultimately head towards Kings Landing.  For this reason, I think Jaime ultimately will have to kill Cersei and take the remaining Lannister forces and Golden Company north to join the fight.  This will be his redemption.

I have no idea what Euron will do, but I'm guessing the continuation of Yara and Theon in the story means one of them will eventually overtake him and take over the Ironborn to join the fight also.  

It is going to be incredibly stupid if the Dany/Jon forces defeat the Night King only to have to then head south and face what will by then likely be superior numbers controlled by Cersei if she does not join the fight and none of that stuff above happens.  The final resolution of this story should be the actions to defeat the main antagonist, which IMO is the Night King, but I am worried the show (and possibly GRRM) see that as Cersei.

 

 

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50 minutes ago, Yoren Luck said:

This is what I am hoping for too...but then I am also hoping they just end Cersei's reign this week and have it all be over with so who am I kidding.

In reality, the GC is 10,000 strong.  They basically will just replace the army she lost from the Loot Train battle and Casterly Rock assault.  It shouldn't tip the scales in any meaningful way at the moment.  The combined North/Vale/Wildling/Unsullied/Dothraki is about 125,000 strong, minus whatever losses the Unsullied and Dothraki sustained earlier this season. Even assuming Euron has 1,000 ships, with 30 reavers per ship, Cersei's total force is only 40,000 with the GC, or 1/3 the total strength of Dany's.  Plus of course, Dany has two dragons, which is like having nukes.

What the show will probably do is have Cersei agree to a temporary truce.  Cersei wil get the GC and Euron's forces together on Westeros and just patiently wait until all of the Dany/Jon forces are far north and getting crushed by the Night King.  Let the dead army do her work for her, so to speak.  Eventually, I think valor and duty will overcome Jaime and he will see that there is no victory for the Lannisters either way, and if the Night King crushes the north/Dany forces, it is exponentially more men to have to stave off when they ultimately head towards Kings Landing.  For this reason, I think Jaime ultimately will have to kill Cersei and take the remaining Lannister forces and Golden Company north to join the fight.  This will be his redemption.

I have no idea what Euron will do, but I'm guessing the continuation of Yara and Theon in the story means one of them will eventually overtake him and take over the Ironborn to join the fight also.  

It is going to be incredibly stupid if the Dany/Jon forces defeat the Night King only to have to then head south and face what will by then likely be superior numbers controlled by Cersei if she does not join the fight and none of that stuff above happens.  The final resolution of this story should be the actions to defeat the main antagonist, which IMO is the Night King, but I am worried the show (and possibly GRRM) see that as Cersei.

 

 

I agree with this. Only issues I see are minor because the show hasn't developed them but the book has. GC would never fight for Targaryan b/c they're all about Blackfyres (but this has never been established in the show) and if Euron is killed by Theon/Yara, doesn't there have to be a Kingsmoot or are we just going with that being a one time ordeal on the show?

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So they shouldn't even be there. No amount of money is going to save you from a dragon. They know she has dragons it spread like wildfire over is Essos, then she comes to Westeros and destorys Cercei's army in a matter of seconds, that would also spread. No reasonable mercenary would take these two pieces of information and say, let's fight the dragon. If they don't switch sides then these writers don't follow common sense.

 

My ultimate scenario (but is never going to happen) would be for the GC to arrive and a red haired man with a kid with blue hair steps out, and they just start attacking Cercei's "leftover" troops. *sigh* A man can dream. 

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1 minute ago, That Westeros Dude said:

So they shouldn't even be there. No amount of money is going to save you from a dragon. They know she has dragons it spread like wildfire over is Essos, then she comes to Westeros and destorys Cercei's army in a matter of seconds, that would also spread. No reasonable mercenary would take these two pieces of information and say, let's fight the dragon. If they don't switch sides then these writers don't follow common sense.

 

My ultimate scenario (but is never going to happen) would be for the GC to arrive and a red haired man with a kid with blue hair steps out, and they just start attacking Cercei's "leftover" troops. *sigh* A man can dream. 

Exactly but then again half the idiots after the Lannister army was burnt alive decided to stand and actually contemplate not being burnt alive by Drogon. So, reasonable thinkers clearly died in the Wot5K.

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They say that the Golden Company are the best fighters of ASOIAF.

Even better as the Unsullied or Dothraki.

They are like the Spartans of GRRM.

I think that they can even beat the Army of Dead.

And they are loyal to Blackfyres, not Targaryens.

Afbeeldingsresultaat voor golden company

 

Edited by The Red Sultan

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5 hours ago, Sir Dingleberry said:

if Euron is killed by Theon/Yara, doesn't there have to be a Kingsmoot or are we just going with that being a one time ordeal on the show?

The only reason they needed a real kingsmoot last time is that Aeron insisted that Yara needed one to establish her right to rule.

According to the DVD extras, kingsmoots have long been symbolic affairs, where only the heir stands for election and everyone just shouts "Aye!" at the appropriate times in the ceremony. The last time there was a real election was Aegon's Conquest, when Aegon extinguished Harren's entire line for refusing to bend the knee and forced them to pick a new leader from a new house.

And Yara is pretty indisputably the heir (unless they want Theon instead). Euron has no kids, and there were no other cousins challenging Yara and Euron last time.

So, if Theon kills Euron and Yara declares herself the heir, there's no reason to hold anything but the usual ceremonial kingsmoot to rubber-stamp it.

(Also, out-of-universe, there aren't any named Ironborn characters left.)

In the books, things are a bit different—but it would actually be even easier for Asha. The last Kingsmoot before Euron's was either 2000 or 4000 years ago (depending on which Maester you trust), and even that was just to choose between contested heirs; the last real open election was even farther back. She'd just show up and have herself crowned on the Seastone Chair and that would be that.

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5 hours ago, That Westeros Dude said:

So they shouldn't even be there. No amount of money is going to save you from a dragon. They know she has dragons it spread like wildfire over is Essos, then she comes to Westeros and destorys Cercei's army in a matter of seconds, that would also spread. No reasonable mercenary would take these two pieces of information and say, let's fight the dragon. If they don't switch sides then these writers don't follow common sense.

The GC pride themselves on not being mercenaries, but a brotherhood of exiles. Their reason for existence is not to make money, but to knock off the rival branch of the Targaryen line that Dany represents. And in the meantime, while they're making money and staying in practice until they can avenge Bittersteel, they pride themselves on not shrinking from any fight. The idea of the GC fighting for Cersei against Dany is not at all unrealistic.

The books' idea of the GC fighting for Aegon is a lot more unrealistic—which is why there are so many theories about Aegon being a secret Blackfyre, or Illyrio tricking the GC into thinking Aegon is a secret Blackfyre when he's actually secretly neither a Blackfyre nor a mainline Targaryen but a double-secret something else, etc.

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Do you think there is any possibility that the GC has taken a new member on in the form of Daario Naharis, as he did not seem happy to be left behind in Meereen and DT was warned she would be betrayed three times.  

three fires must you light, one for life and one for death and one to love, three mounts must you ride, one to bed and one to dread and one to love, three treasons will you know once for blood and once for gold and once for love.

I know before she left she did say to Tyrion that she wasn't sad about leaving him just impatient to get on with it. But he could betray her because he loved her without her loving him? Would love to hear thoughts.

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Not sure where you get 120,000 for the combined force of the north, the Vale and Daenerys.

Dothraki - 40,000 cavalry 

Unsullied - 8,000 infantry

Wildlings - 1,500 infantry (gave or take)

Knights of the Vale - 10,000 cavalry

Northern Houses - 5,000 (mix of infantry and cavalry)

The Dothraki and Unsullied have been in battles recently so those numbers are even smaller.  Top end I would say the combined forces are a little more than half (70,000 and I am being kind, my guess it is closer to 60,000) the number you projected.

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Perhaps the numbers in the north are larger because we're not just counting traditional fighting men.  Jon sent the word that everyone man, woman, child, and crone should take a level in badass and get him/herself a training montage with spear and shield.

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3 hours ago, falcotron said:

The only reason they needed a real kingsmoot last time is that Aeron insisted that Yara needed one to establish her right to rule.

According to the DVD extras, kingsmoots have long been symbolic affairs, where only the heir stands for election and everyone just shouts "Aye!" at the appropriate times in the ceremony. The last time there was a real election was Aegon's Conquest, when Aegon extinguished Harren's entire line for refusing to bend the knee and forced them to pick a new leader from a new house.

And Yara is pretty indisputably the heir (unless they want Theon instead). Euron has no kids, and there were no other cousins challenging Yara and Euron last time.

So, if Theon kills Euron and Yara declares herself the heir, there's no reason to hold anything but the usual ceremonial kingsmoot to rubber-stamp it.

(Also, out-of-universe, there aren't any named Ironborn characters left.)

In the books, things are a bit different—but it would actually be even easier for Asha. The last Kingsmoot before Euron's was either 2000 or 4000 years ago (depending on which Maester you trust), and even that was just to choose between contested heirs; the last real open election was even farther back. She'd just show up and have herself crowned on the Seastone Chair and that would be that.

Well there ya go. Didn't know about the extras so thanks. And your statement about theon killing Enron for Tara, in assuming something along those lines will happen. Especially after Tara saying he was her protector and then he bailed. 

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 Cersei certainly has something shady planned... we will see Sunday I suppose. 

But also, the Iron Bank is primed for a switcheroo. Consider the last scene with Braavosi Iron Banker, in which he repeatedly hinted at how they were impartial to individuals, and devoted to the bottom line:

"You can count on our support... as soon as the gold arrives."

(regarding GC) "I know them well- they have helped us recover significant sums."

I'd say the writers in their clumsy way are setting up the Iron Bank, and in extension the Golden Company, to leave Cercei at a critical moment.

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1 hour ago, Rohlin_the_Wretched said:

Not sure where you get 120,000 for the combined force of the north, the Vale and Daenerys.

Dothraki - 40,000 cavalry 

Unsullied - 8,000 infantry

Wildlings - 1,500 infantry (gave or take)

Knights of the Vale - 10,000 cavalry

Northern Houses - 5,000 (mix of infantry and cavalry)

The Dothraki and Unsullied have been in battles recently so those numbers are even smaller.  Top end I would say the combined forces are a little more than half (70,000 and I am being kind, my guess it is closer to 60,000) the number you projected.

I could have sworn that Jaime said something recently about there being 100,000 'Dothraki screamers' or something along those lines, and was pretty certain that Dany had 100,000 of them in tow when she left Essos.  I could be wrong though, or mixing numbers from the book with numbers from the show.  

Also I thought there were 10,000 Unsullied, not 8,000.  You are probably right that it is 8,000...but doesn't that make it even more unrealistic that Dany would send them to take Casterly Rock, where it is known (by Tyrion) that there was 10,000 Lannister soldiers stationed there.  Even given the fact that there was a secret entrance they could use to get the gates to the castle open without having to storm the walls, that is still a bad ratio of soldiers (less than 1 to 1, with the advantage to the Lannisters).  Obviously it was a moot point since Jaime had most of that army leave Casterly Rock, but Dany and Tyrion did not know this, so in retrospect if the Unsullied were just 8,000 in number, sending them to sack a castle garrisoned by 10,000 seems like suicide.  

Jon and Davos talk about the numbers of how many men they have, and it is stated in the show that is less than 10,000...I am guessing that is wildlings and Northern houses, so your numbers for them may be correct.  

The Knights of the Vale are probably considerably less than 10,000 following the Battle of the Bastards, but who knows at this point.  I had factored their number into my overall estimates for the North when I got 120,000, but maybe their force is more intact than I thought.

So in summary, 100,000 Dothraki plus 10,000 Unsullied plus the 10,000 northmen Jon and Davos mention = 120,000.  That is where I got those numbers.  If the number of Dothraki was only 40,000 from the beginning, but there are still about 10,000 Vale knights, then Dany should have something like 60,000.  Likely more lie 50,000 given casualties in recent battles.

Euron probably has 20,000 to 30,000 reavers based on an estimate that he has 1,000 ships, and each ship is probably manned by 20 to 30.  I have no basis for that number though, it is just a guess considering I can't imagine there being a larger number of men per ship (The Iron Islands are not that big and their total population military force is only listed as 15,000 in the Atlas of Ice and Fire [see link]) 

 https://atlasoficeandfireblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/06/the-population-of-the-seven-kingdoms/

Going by the atlas population numbers, Euron really should only have about 3,000 - 5,000 reavers total, but that would make it a crew of 3 to 5 men per ship which is ridiculous.  (Edit: I am basing this off the fact that Yara had already absconded with their best ships and men after the king's moot, and they had already had casualties in the preceding wars)  Or am I mistaking their number and Euron only has 100 ships?  That would be way more believable in the context of the story, even if you want to give the showrunners some leeway and say the population of the Iron Islands is something like 150,000 instead of 15,000.

Cersei probably only has a few thousand Lannister soldiers left, most of them garrisoned at Kings landing with some of them serving as Gold Cloaks.  A smaller figure is probably holding the major castles in the Riverlands.

I really wish the show had made more of an effort over the past episode or two to provide the viewers with this information, as well as a summary of the statuses of the great houses and what kind of forces are still kicking around in the Riverlands and garrisoned at Kings Landing.  Hopefully we get some of this info in the big council in the season finale.  I feel like the reason they are obscuring this info is because it no longer makes sense in terms of consistency with the story. 

 

 

edited to make more sense of Iron Islands statistics

Edited by Yoren Luck
clarification

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2 hours ago, Sir Dingleberry said:

Well there ya go. Didn't know about the extras so thanks. And your statement about theon killing Enron for Tara, in assuming something along those lines will happen. Especially after Tara saying he was her protector and then he bailed. 

Ha, I didn't even realize I'd just assumed that was what's going to happen, without even realizing it was an assumption. But yeah, it does seem the most likely way for the story to go.

I'm more curious how they're going to end his story. I suspect he's going to die in a blaze of glory, maybe right after killing Euron, or maybe sacrificing himself later to make good with the Starks, but I'd love it if they found some less conventional but still satisfying end for him. Succeeding Aeron in the Drowned Men doesn't seem to fit him. Maybe just Frodo without the invitation to elf-heaven—everyone he cares about has either died or gone on to live happily ever after without needing anything from him, but he retires to a somewhat solitary but not bad life?

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On 8/24/2017 at 2:33 PM, Col Cinders said:

Assume the golden company arrives at KL.  Assume that the Lannister army is severely weakened.

What can Cersei do with them?

What are the possible targets?

Stay in KL and bolster the defense.  Ok not a bad use of them if she can feed them

Retake Casterly Rock?  CR is not of importance strategically in the war between Dany and Cersei.  Holding it would mean stripping off a garrison force and that would weaken her army when it has to fight Dany's.

Occupy the twins?  Again that does not protect KL and does not stop Dany from moving.  the twins can be bypassed.

Riverrun? Same as the twins but more so.

Attack the Eyrie?  She might as well just kill those troops and take their stuff for others to use.  Even if she captures Eyrie so what?  It means nothing to Dany at this point.

Dorne?  There are enemies in Dorne.  But they are IN Dorne and won't be coming out anytime soon.  Also Dorne is a long hike and if her troops go there and are needed at KL it is a long hike back.

Head north and attack Winterfel?  Ok this might be an aggressive play.  If she can sack Winterfel and leave it as a totally destroyed ruin then Dany will lose an important outpost in the war against the undead.

Head north and pretend to team up and fight the undead with Dany but turn on them at a critical moment when it appears the undead are routed but before Dany's army can defend.  This seems like a total dick move and it is exactly what I expect from Cersei.

Storms End seems likely.  The Baratheon seat.  Euron and Golden Company so Theon and Gendry can team up.  

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