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Nerevanin

Is it confirmed that LF sent the assassin in Season 1? [spoilers]

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2 hours ago, kevinbgwrites said:

A youtuber, Preston Jacobs, talks a lot about how it doesn't make sense that its Joffery in the books and raises some good points, with Tyrions logic making no sense and him misremembering things. 

In the show however it kind of comes across as a dropped plot point, they definitely didn't get explicit even if them saying it was LF's dagger implies he hired the assassin. The funny thing is in the show he actually explicitly says its his dagger when talking to Cat, granted he then says he lost it to Tyrion.

 

Who did Preston say he thought it was in the books?

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50 minutes ago, Lothar said:

Who did Preston say he thought it was in the books?

Mance Rayder is offered as another possible suspect.

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My problem with Littlefinger being behind it is the logistics. I could maybe believe that he paid someone to travel with the King's party and gave him the knife to kill any Stark child if the chance presented itself. But if the murder was a reaction to Bran's fall, that means that LF had a spy who could somehow send a raven to King's Landing (and hope Maester Luwin wouldn't notice), wait for a while and then somehow intercept a raven giving instructions on what to do. And that assumes the murderer can read (doubtful, given the description). Or that the murderer travelled all the way back to King's Landing ahead of Robert's party and then returned to carry out the murder. Seems very unlikely, to me.

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On 8/29/2017 at 11:17 AM, Nerevanin said:

 

I dare to object and say that the "it was your dagger and that was another of your lies" suggests it. Not completely sure about the show but in the books there is clearly stated that LF lost his dagger to Robert. If there is nothing more to it, then saying "it was your dagger" is kind of wierd because what's the point of saying that a long long time ago LF had a dagger?

That was the point: Littlefinger lied.

And the subject of who actually did it, simply wasn't touched. Not even in form of a rhetorical question. No "Who sent the assassin, Lord Baelish?". No "Why my brother had to die?". Nothing of the sort.

"Nobody even mentioning it aloud" is the farthest thing from "it was confirmed" that I can think of.

4 hours ago, kevinbgwrites said:

A youtuber, Preston Jacobs, talks a lot about how it doesn't make sense that its Joffery in the books and raises some good points,

No he doesn't. Habitually. His logic is consistently bad and his conclusions invariably false.

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38 minutes ago, Ersatz said:

Mance Rayder is offered as another possible suspect.

It's this kind of tinfoil theorycrafting that prompted me to stop watching Preston's videos.  

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2 hours ago, Hoo said:

I don't agree.  We have that scene which takes places a significant time after the fall, and the murder attempt is recent.

The only two people in Westeros concerned with Bran alive are Cersei and Jamie.  At WF they show their concern.  Of the two, Jamie is more concerned, like when they sit with Tyrion at the breakfast table at WF.   So Jamie has motive and drive.

The assassin is a soldier.  Jamie is in charge of solders, he has command powers.

The assassin carries a blade that belongs to Lannisters.

So not only is the scene at KL and the admission timely, the circumstances are there, and the motive and drive are there.

 

While those points are solid, they still don't negate the fact that it is heavily inferred from the dialogue they were discussing the fall..

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Who benefited? Bran, and the 3EC —or rather, any agents of the 3EC. I've gone back over the Bran chapters in ASOS, and simply can't imagine Jojen would have acted on a dream when in ACOK he'd attested he wasn't even sure Bran was the Winged Wolf (though he gets points for saying he was there to free the Winged Wolf, showing us that the 3EC had assets on the ground to get Bran north of the Wall, to the cave).

Tyrion called it a botched job, but I think whoever sent the catspaw had the motive of freeing Bran from Winterfell (moving Cat out of the way and getting her story going), and knowing the catspaw would fail because of Summer. S/he also needed means and opportunity: they HAD to be in WF when King Bobby was there to snag the dagger, had give it the dagger to the catspaw to use, and had to pay off the catspaw.

Since the answer's in ASOS, really only two people stand out: Benjen (most plausible to me, especially if he were in contact with BR/3EC), and Old Nan (she told Bran the stories that Bran recounted often in ASOS). Old Nan feels like a stretch; but Benjen made the special trip to WF when King Bobby's party was there, and is far more likely because he was NW (physically closer to BR/3EC), then disappeared afterwards, and I still think he's CH, who was actively moving Bran beyond the Wall in ASOS.

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7 minutes ago, Locke081 said:

Who benefited? Bran, and the 3EC —or rather, any agents of the 3EC. I've gone back over the Bran chapters in ASOS, and simply can't imagine Jojen would have acted on a dream when in ACOK he'd attested he wasn't even sure Bran was the Winged Wolf (though he gets points for saying he was there to free the Winged Wolf, showing us that the 3EC had assets on the ground to get Bran north of the Wall, to the cave).

Tyrion called it a botched job, but I think whoever sent the catspaw had the motive of freeing Bran from Winterfell (moving Cat out of the way and getting her story going), and knowing the catspaw would fail because of Summer. S/he also needed means and opportunity: they HAD to be in WF when King Bobby was there to snag the dagger, had give it the dagger to the catspaw to use, and had to pay off the catspaw.

Since the answer's in ASOS, really only two people stand out: Benjen (most plausible to me, especially if he were in contact with BR/3EC), and Old Nan (she told Bran the stories that Bran recounted often in ASOS). Old Nan feels like a stretch; but Benjen made the special trip to WF when King Bobby's party was there, and is far more likely because he was NW (physically closer to BR/3EC), then disappeared afterwards, and I still think he's CH, who was actively moving Bran beyond the Wall in ASOS.

Actually, if you think about it, no one benefited from this.

The assassin says quite clearly to Catelyn that she wasn't supposed to be there, which means he expected to kill the kid. That rules out Bloodraven or anyone else whose goal is to not assassinate Bran--something most easily accomplished by not even attempting to kill him. Sure you could argue that BR could have warged into Summer to prevent the catspaw's being successful but that's a pretty roundabout way of doing things. If BR wanted Bran sprung, he would have done something that is more direct and makes more sense...like...I don't know...send the Reed kids maybe.

Jaime, Cersei, and Littlefinger all would have chosen someone higher in social class and more gifted in the brains department. Cersei probably would have opted for a powerful poison placed under the kid's tongue while no one was looking.

The whole thing is so half-assed that really only Joffrey could be responsible. Every other person would have done a better job. Only a snotty spoiled teenaged idiot would think he could pay some guy off the street to kill a kid with a seriously expensive dagger and nobody would think anything of it. Look at all of Joff's decisions. They reek of impulsiveness and a total failure to anticipate the consequences. This is pretty much classic Joffrey.

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I don't know if someone brought this up but what bothers me the most, in the idea that LF orchestrated the assasination attempt, is the fact that to do so, he had to know why he was pushed/was believed to fall in the first place. It is the only reason, Bran seeing what he saw, that gives gives the Starks reasons to believe it was the Lannisters behind the attempt and thus the only reason for LF to think that it will turn them against each other even more.

For him to know this, would mean someone else in Winterfell witnessed the scene too, which I find unlikely, or that Cersei or Jaime or even Joeffry may be asked him to do it...

Can anyone help understand this point please ?

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11 hours ago, Lurid Jester said:

It's this kind of tinfoil theorycrafting that prompted me to stop watching Preston's videos.  

So, while I recognize that he has a lot of crackpot stuff, and has very out there theories and makes a lot of undue connections there is actually a lot he brings up thats very grounded in reason on this particular video/subject.

His primary suspect is LF or Rayder. While the latter seems pretty out there to me, the main point of the video is that it doesn't make sense that it was joffery, and it really kind of doesn't. Joffery was annoyed with the wolf not Bran, and Tyrion misremembers this, as well as reads way too much into certain comments. Theres a lot to it that I can't do it justice, but by the end of it I definitely agree it doesn't seem like Joffery did it- However that being said my honest suspicion is author error.

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15 hours ago, Nerevanin said:

He could simply order the assassin to leave the dagger behind if he suceeded in killing Bran.

Which would be quite risky (given the weapons immense value, the assassin might very well choose to just keep it) and also everyone with half a brain would recognize that it was left on purpose and someone is trying to frame the daggers owner.

 

Maybe it's easier to assume that LF didn't orchestrate all this in detail but rather had a guy in the royal party with the general task to "fuck shit up between Starks and Lannisters if you see a chance" and LF just got lucky everything played out so perfectly. He's all about climbing that chaos-ladder after all.

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LF saved Sansa, and Arya in a way.  LF recognized Arya at Harehall in Tywin's chamber.  Said nothing, on a dime, just smiled.  How cool was that?!  Then told Sansa on the docks that Arya's okay.  

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5 hours ago, Rhollo said:

Which would be quite risky (given the weapons immense value, the assassin might very well choose to just keep it) and also everyone with half a brain would recognize that it was left on purpose and someone is trying to frame the daggers owner.

 

Maybe it's easier to assume that LF didn't orchestrate all this in detail but rather had a guy in the royal party with the general task to "fuck shit up between Starks and Lannisters if you see a chance" and LF just got lucky everything played out so perfectly. He's all about climbing that chaos-ladder after all.

This. xD

 

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8 hours ago, kevinbgwrites said:

So, while I recognize that he has a lot of crackpot stuff, and has very out there theories and makes a lot of undue connections there is actually a lot he brings up thats very grounded in reason on this particular video/subject.

His primary suspect is LF or Rayder. While the latter seems pretty out there to me, the main point of the video is that it doesn't make sense that it was joffery, and it really kind of doesn't. Joffery was annoyed with the wolf not Bran, and Tyrion misremembers this, as well as reads way too much into certain comments. Theres a lot to it that I can't do it justice, but by the end of it I definitely agree it doesn't seem like Joffery did it- However that being said my honest suspicion is author error.

How can Mance send an assassain with a valyrian dagge wich belongs to Robert Barathion? Please don't say, the assassin took the valyrian dagger from Robert. Why should he do this to kill a young boy? An what is the motive of Mance to kill a young Stark boy?

In the books we knew, that LF lost the dagger to Robert. And why should Littlefinger use this valyrian dagger and not a Lannister weapon at all if his plan is to get a war between Lannisters and Starks?

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34 minutes ago, Marlom said:

How can Mance send an assassain with a valyrian dagge wich belongs to Robert Barathion? Please don't say, the assassin took the valyrian dagger from Robert. Why should he do this to kill a young boy? An what is the motive of Mance to kill a young Stark boy?

In the books we knew, that LF lost the dagger to Robert. And why should Littlefinger use this valyrian dagger and not a Lannister weapon at all if his plan is to get a war between Lannisters and Starks?

What are you on about? If you read what I said I explicitly said I didn't buy Mance as being viable, why are you asking me about him? I was saying that he made a good case for Joffery not making sense as the person who sent the assassin. BUT I then said it was probably GRRM just leaving a few logic holes in but that Joffery probably is intended as the assassin hirer. GRRM did say in an interview the mystery would be resolved in a storm of swords.

I conceded up front Preston has a lot of crackpot theories, and seems to think nearly every event is influenced by Bloodraven, Quaithe etc. my reference to him was just about his points about Joffery not making sense as the culprit. 

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I always thought it was LF. I read these books a couple times and I don't recall that I thought it was Joffrey...or anyone else. Reading here and doing the Google search I still feel it was LF. The show agrees but, they hacked up this story so badly that I can't trust that. I just never thought it was Joffrey. I could be wrong though. 

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This happens when you adapt a show and you forget to lay all the pieces of the puzzle. There was no time spent on screen with Tyrion trying to infer that Jeoffrey was the culprit, so now they have a catspaw with nobody who could have sent him. Solution: Ret-con by pinning it on LF although he has an alibi.

Let's analyse why it can never make any sense:

Either a) LF did it or b) he didnt. if A then he would have to have someone armed with a dagger before even knowing Bran is in a coma, which may be still possible if the orders were to create general unspecific havoc in WF and the catspaw just seized the opportunity. But if this is true then what does not make sense is using such a signature weapon. The Starks are already aware of a (alleged) lannister conspiracy, anything happening to bran is just confirming it, without assigning the ownership of the dagger to a lannister. Moreover, using a signature dagger that can be easily traced back to you is idiotic. The signature dagger would make sense on the other hand, if he has a way of knowing both that bran would fall AND that the assassination attempt would fail. IF these are true then he gets the desired effect because the Starks are asking about the dagger quietly without raising suspicion, and he can point the finger on Tyrion, whereas if Bran died they could not keep it a secret and the weapon used would be investigated thoroughly. However, this sounds really far fetched and over the top even for LF.

If B then he lied about the ownership of the dagger which he lost to someone else or he never owned, and being as it is that the show does not bother pointing on joffrey and than the lack of POV narration does not rule out Cersei and Jamie, it was after all the twin brothers who sent the catspaw, however that still leaves the stupidity of using such a unique weapon that can be traced.

Conversely, the "Joffrey did it" explanation hinted in the books makes perfectly sense, since the little brat wants Robert to know it was him who had Bran shanked

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On ‎8‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 2:53 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

The whole thing is so half-assed that really only Joffrey could be responsible. Every other person would have done a better job. Only a snotty spoiled teenaged idiot would think he could pay some guy off the street to kill a kid with a seriously expensive dagger and nobody would think anything of it. Look at all of Joff's decisions. They reek of impulsiveness and a total failure to anticipate the consequences. This is pretty much classic Joffrey.

Agreed. Anybody who was mildly competent would never arm a common assassin with a Valyrian Steel dagger. That's totally ludicrous. Littlefinger would never do that, Jaime would never do that, Cersei would never do that, etc. A regular dagger can easily do the job without the attention that would be garnered by using a Valyrian Steel dagger (especially one so fancy and distinct). Only a dumbass who picked out the weapon because he thought it looked cool would do that, especially the only dumbass we know who had ready access to that kind of weaponry.

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