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Owen Wulfson

Cersei is screwed - the fighting won't be in the North!

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21 hours ago, snow is the man said:

well to be fair magic came back with dragons. The books mention this alot more then the show does but the magic came back with the dragons

But the white walkers came back before dragons, it showed them in season 1 episode 1 in the opening scene long before dragons came around again. So are you saying the white walkers knew that dragons had returned simply because magic came back and they were awoken? Does not really matter, I do not want to get the thread off track, I simply wonder how the Night King planned his moves around something he had no evidence of at the time unless he is tapped into something that has not been made aware on the show yet.

 

Just getting into the books now, I look forward to adding some more depth to it with the reading over the next year. 

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20 hours ago, snow is the man said:

I think the thing is that when they are north of the wall they don't have a reason to move fast. Now when they are moving south they have no reason not too start moving fast.  They need to move quick to get places before they get ready and do the most damage they can with the least loss's

They have always been going south.  After they got the dragon it doesn't make any sense to think that they would go as slow as possible to get to the wall, but then move at record pace once they passed it.  Of course the reality is that the show doesn't really care at all about travel times or even making an attempt at any sort of consistency in how long it takes to get from one place to another.  They will certainly move much faster next season and the reason is because the show writers say so.

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On 8/28/2017 at 1:48 PM, Owen Wulfson said:

Cersei is as ever, a character with a narrow view of power and indeed the world. This is why I knew that the whole "show Cersei a zombie" thing was a bad idea from the start. Because even if she knew the Army of the Dead was real, there was never any reason to believe that she wouldn't play politics with its coming. 

With that said, Cersei is in for a terrible surprise: the fighting won't be in the North! The numbers in the final episode are important: 100,000 zombies in the undead host (according to Daenerys), 1 million people in King's Landing and far less people in the entire North. Now if I were the Night King - would I wage a protracted war in the North with an uncertain victory or, as is more likely, would I march south and sack Kings Landing, increase my force tenfold and then declare a win? The latter option of course! Also, does anyone not think the Night King won't try to rez all the DEAD DRAGONS underneath the Red Keep in storage!?

Jon and Daenrys will have to march south in the wake of the undead host after it barrels from Eastwatch to Moat Cailin all to save the capital of the vindictive woman who betrayed them!

Now the fact that the undead marched through Eastwatch with not apparent intention to cross by sea is important to this thoery. Look at this map:

Image result for game of thrones map of the north

If the Dead were intent on attacking Winterfell they would have blasted through Castle Black in the center. East Watch, however, is an entrance that gives them a near straight shot to the Neck and Moat Cailin. They could even follow the coastline if they are really bad with directions. This does put White Harbor in the path of the Host, which the Night King may sack on his way down. What this means for Cersei is that by the time she ship over an army of mercenaries to supplement her own forces it will be just in time to watch them get eaten by ice zombies.  

What does this mean for the Show?

Two things:

1) We get to go back south where all the drama is, and thank goodness for that.

2) We get to see Jon and Daenrys square off on strategy. They both want to keep King's Landing from falling to the dead - if that happens Game Over. But I am betting Daenrys, angry over Cersei's betrayal, will argue that the best and only course of action would be to fly south on her remaining dragons and burn King's Landing and everyone in it so that the Night King cannot raise them. this would be a strategic pyrrhic victory for the living.

Jon will argue against this, saying that the lives of that many people are worth trying to save at any cost. And once again he will suggest, wait for it, another suicide mission (because the last one ended so well..) to infiltrate the Red Keep, kill Cersei, and hand over control of the city to Jaimie to coordinate it's defenses. The Hound will come along and thus we get our Cleganebowl in the royal hall. And Jaimie will likely be the one to kill Cersei, thus fulfilling the prophecy (it was her mistake letting him go). And when the fighting is done, Daenrys and Jon can declare victory and a new united realm (but what about the costs blah blah blah). 

I call this theory the Dead Marching South theory for Game of Thrones.

What do you guys think?

 

I think that's brilliant, and would be immensely satisfied with the irony Cersei would have to face up to in such a situation. And since the army of the dead can do a forced march with no need of ever stopping or resting, they could be there in no time, before any human forces could arrive (except maybe the Golden Company since they would be travelling by ship - but they would just be more fodder for the army to conscript). Cersei would find herself in a tight spot; I would relish it. Oh imagine if she ends up having to send ravens to Winterfell begging Jon and Dany to help her. Jon is like "Knock, knock" Cersei "Who's there?" Jon "Ben" Cersei "Ben who?" Jon "Ben D. Knee" (I got that joke from someone else but it's still funny)

But she'd probably explode King's Landing before any of that. Maybe that's what will happen is the have to send a bomb-diffusal team south to stop the city from being exploded by Cersei.

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If the night king was indeed baiting Dany to bring her dragons, I wonder how the Night King knew dragons existed again however? He must have some sort of power as well? 

Exactly my line of thought with the "trap" theory. How does Night King even know about Dany and her dragons, and even if he does know there's no practical way the Night King would know Dany would show with her dragons. That isn't a trap, it is the worst and most illogical gambit even conceived. He has to either have greensight, or, communicating with someone who does.

 

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At this point, I see no difference between Aerys and Cersei... She is the Mad Queen now.

 

Agreed.

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12 minutes ago, John Meta said:

Exactly my line of thought with the "trap" theory. How does Night King even know about Dany and her dragons, and even if he does know there's no practical way the Night King would know Dany would show with her dragons. That isn't a trap, it is the worst and most illogical gambit even conceived. He has to either have greensight, or, communicating with someone who does.

While I don't fully subscribe to the trap theory, it wouldn't be incredible to believe that ice magic and fire magic are somehow connected. The NK knew due to his magical abilities that dragons were back. And there is a definite connection between the NK and Bran, who is a greenseer.

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2 minutes ago, Apoplexy said:

While I don't fully subscribe to the trap theory, it wouldn't be incredible to believe that ice magic and fire magic are somehow connected. The NK knew due to his magical abilities that dragons were back. And there is a definite connection between the NK and Bran, who is a greenseer.

I agree that it's probable the Night King knows dragons are around through some connection with the fire aspect of the dragons. But practically speaking (if it's just a practical lure, not based on greensight) then for him to set a trap actually anticipating that Dany will risk showing up with dragons to rescue a half dozen men? If I were there I'd be saying, "Bad idea. This is really improbable. This is not a good strategy at all. I doubt your command decisions. You are banking on incredible odds." then after it was over he would probably smirk at me and I'd still reply "So she showed up; still doesn't mean your strategy was sound. It was a terrible strategy that miraculously paid off. So wipe that smirk off your face."

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16 minutes ago, John Meta said:

I agree that it's probable the Night King knows dragons are around through some connection with the fire aspect of the dragons. But practically speaking (if it's just a practical lure, not based on greensight) then for him to set a trap actually anticipating that Dany will risk showing up with dragons to rescue a half dozen men? If I were there I'd be saying, "Bad idea. This is really improbable. This is not a good strategy at all. I doubt your command decisions. You are banking on incredible odds." then after it was over he would probably smirk at me and I'd still reply "So she showed up; still doesn't mean your strategy was sound. It was a terrible strategy that miraculously paid off. So wipe that smirk off your face."

If the night king did indeed know about the dragons, Dany's venture beyond the wall and was able to plan for it, I would think this perhaps hints at evidence to the theories of the night king and Bran's connection as one entity. I mean how many characters can you have with the ability to look into the future and make changes before it becomes too complicated and pointless, how would anyone get an upper hand. We have the lord of light, 3 eyed raven, and now potentially the night king who can see events in the future and make preparations for it if this was indeed the case. Its interesting for sure.

 

On a different note, I have read some interesting theories on lightbringer being winterfell itself, perhaps the night king has something to fear about winterfell and wants to bring the largest army possible, another reason to avoid winterfell for now. I mean it is called "Winter Fell" Night king and winter are pretty connected, I have not read the books, do we know where the night king was defeated previously?

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2 hours ago, the tower of albion said:

I think it's interesting that they hit Eastwatch. Hug the coast avoid Winterfell all together.

Yes; the only reason armies can't just avoid Winterfell is that the terrain and the weather are so terrible that nobody but extreme Northerners like the various Flint clans could pull it off. We saw what happened to Stannis only a little way off the roads. But for the Night King and his army? That shouldn't be a problem at all. Frozen wasteland is exactly what they like best.

Getting through the Neck without going down the Kingsroad might be a problem, depending on whether they can freeze over the swamps. But we've already been told there's no good way to defend Moat Caillin against attacks from the northern side without completely rebuilding the forts. So if they bypass Winterfell, they've basically got a free ride into the Riverlands and its millions of poorly-defended future wights.

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26 minutes ago, John Meta said:

I agree that it's probable the Night King knows dragons are around through some connection with the fire aspect of the dragons. But practically speaking (if it's just a practical lure, not based on greensight) then for him to set a trap actually anticipating that Dany will risk showing up with dragons to rescue a half dozen men? If I were there I'd be saying, "Bad idea. This is really improbable. This is not a good strategy at all. I doubt your command decisions. You are banking on incredible odds." then after it was over he would probably smirk at me and I'd still reply "So she showed up; still doesn't mean your strategy was sound. It was a terrible strategy that miraculously paid off. So wipe that smirk off your face."

I would agree with that. In fact I don't think there was anyway the NK would've known for sure that the dragons would come. But he knows Jon Snow. And he may know that he is connected to ice and fire. So that would make it more likely that Dany and the dragons would come to his aid. And the NK wouldn't lose anything by being patient and not killing the men instantly.

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5 hours ago, summitxho said:

But the white walkers came back before dragons, it showed them in season 1 episode 1 in the opening scene long before dragons came around again. So are you saying the white walkers knew that dragons had returned simply because magic came back and they were awoken? Does not really matter, I do not want to get the thread off track, I simply wonder how the Night King planned his moves around something he had no evidence of at the time unless he is tapped into something that has not been made aware on the show yet.

 

Just getting into the books now, I look forward to adding some more depth to it with the reading over the next year. 

He is a magical creature himself so it is likely that he could "feel" it so to speak. I won't spoil the books for you but it's explained alot more there. And the books rock

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I had the idea of White Walkers moving to KL too, but magically lured by Bran, who is trying to save his home. On their way South they collect so much dead people from former wars that KL is a lost case once they reach it. Wildfire makes it become their trap and Westeros loses it's center of monarchy on the way.

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I'd buy that the Walkers split their forces, one chunk to hit Winterfell and the armies gathered there, or simply besiege Winterfell if storming it immediately is impractical, and another to bypass Winterfell and deepstrike against the South.

For a long time now (quite literally, years), I've thought that the Walkers and their wights will end up largely bypassing Winterfell/The North, and hit the South hard. The alternative ends up being that the North ends up basically wiped out defending the South, which is left relatively untouched. At least, in the books there's Euron and his Ironborn, the possibility of an epidemic of greyscale, fAegon's invasion, Daenerys's invasion, and the prospective Second Dance to potentially hammer the South, but even in the books, I think the Walkers and the wights will end up bypassing much of the North to head South*.

 

*This assumes that the book-Walkers have as straightforward a motivation as they do on the show, which is unlikely. A possibility that's kind of a pet theory that gets a similar result is that the Walkers are stirring in response to crimes committed against the Starks (namely, burning Rickard Stark alive, at least initially), and/or the commingling of Stark and Targaryen/Dragonrider blood with Rhaegar+Lyanna=Jon, and in the event of the former, they're going for revenge on where the crimes against the Starks were committed (ie, King's Landing) and possibly against others who they can tell have sinned against the Starks, and in the event of the latter, and possibly also the former, they're able to communicate with the Starks/Jon and follow their orders; possibly in a manner similar to the Dead/Oathbreakers of LotR obeying the Heir of Isildur.

 

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Unfortunately, this is the show. And Benioff&Weiss are probably going to pull something terrible out of their asses that won't have any internal consistency or logic to it.

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I was just wondering if the fact that Bran the Builder built the foundations of Winterfell etc and also the Wall, whether there is some magic there that prevents the WWs from entering WF.  It sounds also as if the pact that kept the WWs inactive the last time was likely brokered by a Stark and there is that phrase "there must always be a Stark in WF."

So maybe they cannot access WF, although I guess they could still siege it.  This would bring the WWs south and also give time for reunions / confrontations etc with all the characters since every one seems to be heading for WF.

I am probably wrong but just wondering...

 

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3 hours ago, Morgana Lannister said:

I was just wondering if the fact that Bran the Builder built the foundations of Winterfell etc and also the Wall, whether there is some magic there that prevents the WWs from entering WF.  It sounds also as if the pact that kept the WWs inactive the last time was likely brokered by a Stark and there is that phrase "there must always be a Stark in WF."

So maybe they cannot access WF, although I guess they could still siege it.  This would bring the WWs south and also give time for reunions / confrontations etc with all the characters since every one seems to be heading for WF.

I am probably wrong but just wondering...

 

It's a great question.  I'm wondering that too because I almost feel like the White Walkers need to get South of Winterfell, like at least to the Riverlands to truly create drama and conflict and have that epic final battle.  Yet it seems like everyone is converging on Winterfell so it would make sense that the final battle would take place there.  

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It would be stupid of the Night King to stick around the North purely because the further North he is, the better chance they have at pushing him back. He should entrench. Go as south as possible as quickly as possible. Kill everyone along the Kingsroad and raise them to supplement the army.

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