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Danny-

Did ned stark know that roberts rebellion was started on a lie?

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Why would Lyanna want to send out a message? 

She is eloping. Eloping means you run away quietly and secretly and hope nobody will catch you. 

If you are Lyanna, the extremely handsome crown prince said to you with his sparkling purple eyes that "I love you and let us go get married so that my evil cousin will not take you from me." Will you want to give your dad a message so that he can find you and send you off to Robert? 

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3 hours ago, RhaenysB said:

Expectations: father, brother, please don't worry, I'm perfectly fine. I really don't like Robert because he's a douchebag, so I married this freshly divorced prince. We booked a honeymoon for 9 months in dorne, will send a card, love, lya. Reality: we have received no ravens today, my lord.

Or there was a raven. Though Robert took the letter, and killed that raven. Otherwise if raven returned to Dorne without reply from Lyanna's family, she would've eventually sent  there a messenger, not just a letter. But raven didn't return. She sent another, and another, and another. And by the time that she and Rhaegar realised that there's a reason why they're not reciving any news from North or from King's Landing, it was already too late.

Or ravens were intercepted by Robert at Winterfell, Lusa Tully or Little Finger at The Vale, and Jaime Lannister at King's Landing.

It was all part of a long planned conspiration constructed by Tywin Lannister.

Also Robert was Tywin's accomplice for many years before that. I think that Robert and Stannis killed their own father on orders given by Tywin.

Though Lyanna wasn't part of Tywin's original plan. He just wanted to antagonize relationship between Rhaegar and King Aerys, make them kill each other, and then crown Robert and marry him with Cersei, or to make Rhaegar rebel against Aerys, kill him, be crowned and marry with Cersei (because of Tywin's help during that rebellion).

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4 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

I'm a Stark hater and as a book reader I bring information from the books into show discussions.  That's hard to avoid.  I think the Starks were plotting rebellion together with Robert Baratheon even before Lyanna ran off with Rhaegar.  Those marriage alliances are suspicious and even a dumbass like Robert would have known back then that the royal family could not allow that alliance to develop.  It would have changed the balance of power in Westeros and threaten the Targaryen Dynasty.  Aerys could not allow those alliances to develop.  Rickard was a dead man the minute he rode south.  And he deserved it. 

Southron ambitions, huh? Well let me tell you: if Starks intended to rebel based on weak Baratheon claims then why didn't they use "abduction" as a casus beli immediately? It's not like they needed King's justice at that point. Asking for King's justice is like saying "he is the rightful King".

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11 hours ago, Mikkel said:

This. Either the showrunners, or Bran/Sam are ignorant of the fact that Lyannas supposed kidnapping was largely inconsequential to the rebellion rather than cause- and effect: it was not irrelevant, as it set other things in motion, but Aerys being a complete nutcase and Rhaegar hiding out in Dorne were the real problems.

11 hours ago, Mikkel said:

Right, understood, but when Brandon and then Rickard rode south, it was not a rebellion. Even when that epitome of genetic refinement that was Aerys burned and strangled them, it was not a rebellion. Only when he then demanded the heads of Ned and Robert did it become a rebellion, because Jon Arryn had honour, political acumen and cojones the size of a coconut.

If Aerys had been a less insane person, and managed to calm down or at least placate the enraged Northeners rather than murder them, then actual kidnapping or not it probably wouldn't have turned into a rebellion. That's why the fact that it wasn't actually a kidnapping/rape situation doesn't really matter.

Agreed on both counts.

5 hours ago, TwiceBorn said:

Show bullshit line no 1 as Rhaegars affections for Lyanna Stark were made public a year earlier at Harrenhal which is mentioned in the show.

What is supposed to be a lie: that Rhaegar offended the Starks gravely by arranging Lyanna's escape and marriage without her father's consent? That Aerys killed Rickard and Brandon and demanded lives of Robert and Ned to neatly clean up after his son? That Jon Arryn raised banners in defense of the boys who were like sons to him?

Dumb&Dumber

I believe according to D&D and Bran "all of it" was supposed to be a lie, whatever the hell that means.  I'm with you, it was a terrible line.

4 hours ago, RhaenysB said:

expectations: so father, this was a horrible decision, let's leave the Starks alone because I just married one, they are our allies. Don't worry honey, we'll get rid of the old man as soon as he falls asleep. Reality: *you have reached prince Rhaegar. I'm busy making babies I can name Aegon, please leave a message* 

LOL classic rant as always... plus whenever a Rhaegar fan admits that yeah he kind of did fuck up a little (not that it is by any means unforgiveable or make him the worst man on earth, it just means he was capable of fucking up just like every other person in Planetos) it brings a smile to my face.

1 hour ago, Greg B said:

LOL. The whole thing makes no sense whatsoever. My theory is that poor Ned remained befuddled and confused up until the day the Lannisters took his head, because why wouldn't he be? Lyanna's last words to her brother were, "Promise me, Ned." His last words to his sister were probably, "WTF?!?"

Taking me a minute to calm down from laughing so hard.  I agree here.  I've seen some book readers (I've also read the books) state with certainty that Ned knew exactly what had happened and regretted the rebellion but I don't think that's necessarily the case.  We purposefully are not given enough information by GRRM to deduce it because if GRRM had spelled it out in black and white then it wouldn't have been as interesting of a story for us all to have theories about.  Maybe Wylla and Ashara were able to fill in some details but even if Ned knew (1) Lyanna went willingly, (2) Lyanna married Rhaegar, and (3) Elia Martell and her family supported this marriage (which I don't necessarily believe) then he still would be very confused as to why they didn't care to tell anyone this.  He was heartbroken by his sister's death, sure, but probably thought she acted immaturely and was remorseful and still somewhat angry at Rhaegar and Lyanna for putting their families and the realm through this.  He may have accepted that they loved each other, but ultimately Rhaegar knew better than to not tell anyone what was going on and Ned had to still be confused and hurt by that.

 

Off topic though some people have brought this up - I really think Ned and Robert were still friends and that Ned still loved Robert after all of this, even if he didn't trust him not to kill Ned's  nephew.  Ned saw that Robert was heartbroken and no longer himself - he didn't hate him for it, he hated that it happened that way for him.  They still had some tender moments together after Ned became Hand.

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4 hours ago, RhaenysB said:

Robert's Rebellion wasn't based on a lie, it was based on rash decisions of badly informed people. 

Yes, Lyanna disappeared and somehow someway the Starks found out Rhaegar was behind this.

Expectations: father, brother, please don't worry, I'm perfectly fine. I really don't like Robert because he's a douchebag, so I married this freshly divorced prince. We booked a honeymoon for 9 months in dorne, will send a card, love, lya. Reality: we have received no ravens today, my lord. 

Expectations: Your Grace, our beloved daughter Lyanna disappeared and scouts have spotted a party of Prince Rhaegar near the King's Road. Might the Prince know anything of my daughter? Would your grace be so gracious and shed some light on what happened? Yours gratefully, Rickard Stark. Reality: Brandon rides to KL and starts shouting for the crown prince of the country to come out and die. 

Expectations: Excuse me, boy, who the hell are you and why are you threatening the life of my son and heir? Explain yourself. Realty: let's burn this kid and his father because they threatened my son. (Of course, it was common knowledge that Aerys is mad, so I really have no idea what Brandon Stark thought was going to happen) 

expectations: so father, this was a horrible decision, let's leave the Starks alone because I just married one, they are our allies. Don't worry honey, we'll get rid of the old man as soon as he falls asleep. Reality: *you have reached prince Rhaegar. I'm busy making babies I can name Aegon, please leave a message* 

expectations: at this point there's hardly any hope to save the country from a war, but honorable lord eddard Stark could really have done another round of talking, or he could have hired Ser Ten And Twenty of House Goodmen to search for his sister before going into a nation wide war over misinformation. 

Nicely written but you missed one:

expectations: "Hi Jon this is Aerys speaking I just offed two Starks in one go, would you kindly send me the remaining one and his pal Robert, so I can make another barbecue?" "Yes sure, you're the boss."
reality: "I shouldn't have threatened my boys you sick f**k, now I'm coming for you!"

Rash decision? Badly informed?

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3 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

But the Lannisters were on Aerys' side. If Tywin had orchestrated this, shouldn't he have switched sides sooner? 

He did. 5 years before Robert's rebellion. Read about the Defiance of Duskendale.

Also I think that Tywin conspired with Robert and Stannis Baratheon, and made them kill their own father Steffon Baratheon. To prevent Steffon from bringing from Essos a suitable fiancee for Rhaegar. Because Tywin wanted Rhaegar to marry with Cersei.

How are they on his side? - Tywin ransacked Aerys' city, and Jaime cut his throat.

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3 hours ago, xander_blackfyre said:

Two things about this statement.

1.  Brandon was not at Riverrun to receive a message.  He left Riverrun to join up with his father's wedding party coming to the wedding, it was on his way back to Riverrun that he got word that Lyanna was gone.  He rushed off to Kings Landing with his boys, a better question is why is father did not stop him knowing his temperament(Brandon was not the most level headed) and knowing Aerys would be there as well and he was totally nuts.

2. There was already animosity between Rhaegar and Brandon, at the tourney at Harrenhall Brandon wanted to kick Rhaegar's ass, part of that was probably because Rhaegar beat him in the joust but he had to be restrained when Rhaegar gave Lyanna the flowers and title of queen of love and beauty.

I think it is safe to say that if she sent word to Riverrun and the message got there and was received by Rickard and Brandon that says " I am not going to marry the man you chose for me,  I am in love with Rhaegar, who I know Brandon has a problem with, but I am going to marry him and not Robert.  I hope you understand, Lyanna ."  Brandon still would have been fuming and might have gone off to kings landing anyway.

Robert's rebellion may have come to be known for being started with Lyanna's disappearance, but it was really a war for survival.  That was the true basis of the war for Ned and Robert the line that Cersei delivered in Eastwatch summed it up perfectly; they could fight and maybe die or they could submit and surely die.  Aerys was the architect of his and his house's demise, though his actions to unite the Vale, North, and Stormlands , then supplemented by the Riverlands against him.  Robert never went to war because of the broken engagement like others pointed out.  Timeline says that there was a fair amount of time between the disappearance and the raising of banners by Jon Arryn.  

Lets just assume that the rules of travel on the show do not apply.

  • Lyanna and Rhaegar disappear
  • Brandon meets with his father and is heading back to Riverrun when he gets word, he and his boys now head south to KIngs Landing from someplace is the Riverlands, presumably Rickard heads back to Winterfell or onto Riverrun.  When he reaches whichever destination he would probably send word to Robert about what happens and he stays in the Vale.
  • Brandon arrives at King Landing and demands Rhaegar "come out and die"(very stupid)  he and his boys are arrested.  
  • Aerys sends word to Rickard and the others fathers, they all have to travel from the North, this takes time for all of them to arrive in KL.
  • They are all tried, convicted, and executed (except Ethan Glover), Aerys then calls for Robert and Ned's heads
  • Jon Arryn calls in his banners beginning the rebellion.

I saw someone do a comprehensive timeline of these events and this all takes place from start to finish in about 2 months.

 

 

 

This doesn't explain how Brandon found out. Lyanna should have arrived in Riverrun before him but she never appeared. The first time anyone should be aware of her being missing is when she doesn't arrive there. So either Riverrun never got a message she wasn't turning up or the message was intercepted and Brandon was sent incomplete info.

Brandon may have acted rashly even with the correct information but if Brandon had correct information, Ned and Robert would eventually get it too.

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8 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Also I think that Tywin conspired with Robert and Stannis Baratheon, and made them kill their own father Steffon Baratheon. To prevent Steffon from bringing from Essos a suitable fiancee for Rhaegar. Because Tywin wanted Rhaegar to marry with Cersei.

I thought you were just doing a sarcastic post mocking people who have extremely convoluted theories, but since you mentioned this twice I am not so sure...

How did Robert and Stannis cause the Windproud to sink on the shores of Storm's End?  Many people witnessed this, how could foul play have been done?  Stannis spent the rest of his life pissed off that his parent's died, was that all an act?  Steffon had already failed in finding a suitable wife as it was.

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11 minutes ago, Megorova said:

He did. 5 years before Robert's rebellion. Read about the Defiance of Duskendale.

Also I think that Tywin conspired with Robert and Stannis Baratheon, and made them kill their own father Steffon Baratheon. To prevent Steffon from bringing from Essos a suitable fiancee for Rhaegar. Because Tywin wanted Rhaegar to marry with Cersei.

How are they on his side? - Tywin ransacked Aerys' city, and Jaime cut his throat.

Tywin intervened in the rebellion only towards the end, when he sacked KL. He had stayed away from the war before that. If he had wanted to ensure that Aerys was defeated, shouldn't he have deployed his army sooner?

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40 minutes ago, Greg B said:

Plenty of ravens flying around during this time, though! Let's just say, sometime between the elopement and when a raven flew from the Red Keep to the Eyrie demanding the execution of Ned and Robert, Rhaegar and Lyanna might have been able to come up for air long enough to send a clarifying missive. "We're fine. We're all fine here now, thank you. How are you?"

Instead, they hid out and allowed the realm to descend into civil war, until Rhaegar finally pulled up his pants, strapped on his armor, kissed his pregnant (wife/sister-wife/mistress) goodbye, and headed north to finish killing whatever was left of her family. And still they said nothing!

LOL. The whole thing makes no sense whatsoever. My theory is that poor Ned remained befuddled and confused up until the day the Lannisters took his head, because why wouldn't he be? Lyanna's last words to her brother were, "Promise me, Ned." His last words to his sister were probably, "WTF?!?"

The war at the onset was not about them though, it was about Aerys, Jon Arryn did not raise his banners against Rhaegar he raised them against Aerys, Ned and Robert did not fear for their lives because of Rhaegar, they feared for their lives and raised their banners against  Aerys.  Robert laid his claim to the Iron Throne before the end of the war and it did not even become about finding Lyanna until the end. After he killed Rhaegar he dispatches Ned to King Landing not to find information on Lyanna but to claim the Iron throne.  After he arrives in Kings Landing again he is not concerned about where Lyanna is he wants to consolidate his power.  Ned strikes out on his own to find her Lyanna.  If he was so concerned about finding the love of his life perhaps in between fighting and bedding he could have dispatched a small group to do some searching while he went off to war.  Aerys sent Gerold Hightower to find Rhaegar and he did it, so finding them was not impossible, its not like Rhaegar has some common look or Arthur Dayne for that matter someone would have recognized them, they needed supplies so someone went out.  

Here's my thoughts the I think Rhaegar kept Lyanna in the dark about much of what was going on not wanting to stress her out with her being pregnant and all.  Once the war started though it was what he kind of wanted, the great houses united against his father and he was hoping that Robert and company would do the dirty work of taking care of Aerys and he could swoop in and make the peace between the two sides once it was all over.  After getting news of the Battle of the Bells he realized like Aerys did that Robert was a threat to his entire house and not just to his father and he had to deal with it.  He never thought for a second that Robert would defeat him in battle and he knew he would come back for Lyanna and the baby, but we all know how it really went down.  

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I feel like Varys is largely responsible. Rhaegar supposedly had plans to deal with his father and intended to address that at the Tourney of Harrenhal. For book Varys it might make sense to further destabilization if you assume he's a Blackfyre. Show Varys though it doesn't fit his good of the realm motive. Advising Aerys to attend only complicates Rhaegar's plans and it seems from what has been revealed that Rhaegar would have been a good King. Then again, it's apparently the Tourney where Rhaegar and Lyanna met and fell in love. It still kind of seems like it was either deliberate of Varys or an odd misstep from Varys. Again, to me, his motives make sense if he's a Blackfyre or Blackfyre loyalist not so much if he's the people's spider.

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14 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The rebels didn't go to war after Lyanna's kidnapping. They went to war after batshit insane Aerys roasted Rickard Stark alive and killed his heir in response for them wanting Lyanna back. And probably because of generally being fedup with the crazy tyrant.

If Aerys had not killed Rickard and Brandon, his line would likely still rule Westeros today.

That.

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1 hour ago, Lucius Lovejoy said:

Off topic though some people have brought this up - I really think Ned and Robert were still friends and that Ned still loved Robert after all of this, even if he didn't trust him not to kill Ned's  nephew.  Ned saw that Robert was heartbroken and no longer himself - he didn't hate him for it, he hated that it happened that way for him.  They still had some tender moments together after Ned became Hand.

I think of all people Ned could have known about R+L from the very start which actually sets him as the most tragic hero in the books.

First of all Ned and Robb were wards at Eyrie. In Ned's case from the age of 8 to 18. The show messes this up a bit, by showing him at Winterfell with his brothers and sister but the truth is he spent most of the time with Rob in the Vale. So you are 100% right that Ned loved Rob as a brother would, because bonds between wards belong to the strongest in westerosi culture. He named his firstborn after him. But seeing how Rob was consumed by lust, bloodlust and alcoholism and would gladly accept killing Targaryens by any means, even raping women and murdering children - it was too much to bare. Especially when you had a Targ child to hide.

Also after the death of his brother, Ned had to make a strategic and honorable marriage with Kat. A marriage that ended up to be pretty happy one but with significant flaw: a bastard child. Ned would lie to his wife even though the lie hurt her more than truth. He did it to protect Jon. Isn't it conceivable that he lied to Robert as well: first to protect Lyanna, then to protect her son?

Also it appears that the house of Dayne was fond of him and he could have married into that house (Ashara). However R+L forced him to fight against Daynes, kill Ashara's brother and marry Kat instead. It is not in the show as far as I remember but both romances developed at the same time. Did Ashara tell Ned where to find Lyanna, I wonder? R+L took everything from Ned, ruined his life but he made that fateful promise nevertheless. I believe that was the choice that he made early on and built his life upon it. Family before duty, duty before honor.

Not that any of this matters. Rob would kill Rhaegar all the same if he knew. And Ned would fight beside him all the same. The only difference is Rob cherishing Lyanna's memory instead calling her a whore.

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6 hours ago, Greg B said:

Plenty of ravens flying around during this time, though! Let's just say, sometime between the elopement and when a raven flew from the Red Keep to the Eyrie demanding the execution of Ned and Robert

What if that raven was sent not from King's Landing but from Casterly Rock? Or it was from KL, but letter wasn't writen by Mad King?

For over 20 years Tywin Lannister was Hand of the King. He could have forged Aerys' handwriting, and put Targarien's seal/mark/signature on that letter. I think that when he finally left KL, he took from there much more than just a few governmental seals. Also he had his people everywhere, they prevented/distorted communication between parties involved.

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Ned does think that Robert's hatred of the Targs is an obsession and goes beyond reasonable

Because he believed Tywin that he will make him a legitimate king (and for achieving this Robert even killed his father), but in the end he was still called by people the Usurper.

He was usurper because Viserys and Dany were still alive. Ned was angry at Robert that Robert didn't punished Tywin for killing Targarien kids. But Robert himself was angrier at Tywin for not killing ALL OF THEM. And while there's still even one Targarien alive, Robert is Usurper, and not a legitimate King.

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And btw Tywin does not have Aerys ear by the time of the Tourney at Harenhall. He has returned back to Casterly Rock by then and is not on speaking terms with Aerys. If you had said Tywin might have been scheming with Rhaegar to depose Aerys at that point, that theory would probably have some merit. And Varys is the one most likely to have whispered in Aerys ears about Rhaegar's true motives for the tourney and his possible collusion with some of the other high lords.

Or Tywin was the one behind every scheme in Seven Kingdoms. His people were spreading rumours -

- to Aerys that crown Prince Rhaegar is plotting to overthrow his father

- to Rhaegar that Aerys is planning to kill him for nonexistent threason

- to Starks that Lyanna was kidnapped by Rhaegar, etc.

Basically Tywin Lannister was doing the same thing that later was done by Little Finger. Plotting, scheming, clashing family members against each other. All for the sake of power.

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In the books, I feel there's more to Brandon's outburst than what we've been given so far. He was a hothead, yes and Ned also blames his wolf blood for his early death. But the man was the heir to WF and should have had at least one level headed person in his entourage. I feel something or someone provoked his response.

Add this too, in list of Tywin's achievements - misinformed Brandon, manipulated him into losing his head and barging into Red Keep with insane demands, that got him and his father killed.

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Besides, I always felt that D&D hated Robert and Stannis and would be happy to pile more shit on the Baratheon brothers.

Maybe because they knew that those two were patricides (killed their father).

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6 minutes ago, TwiceBorn said:

I think of all people Ned could have known about R+L from the very start which actually sets him as the most tragic hero in the books.

First of all Ned and Robb were wards at Eyrie. In Ned's case from the age of 8 to 18. The show messes this up a bit, by showing him at Winterfell with his brothers and sister but the truth is he spent most of the time with Rob in the Vale. So you are 100% right that Ned loved Rob as a brother would, because bonds between wards belong to the strongest in westerosi culture. He named his firstborn after him. But seeing how Rob was consumed by lust, bloodlust and alcoholism and would gladly accept killing Targaryens by any means, even raping women and murdering children - it was too much to bare. Especially when you had a Targ child to hide.

(snip)

Isn't it conceivable that he lied to Robert as well: first to protect Lyanna, then to protect her son?

(snip)
R+L took everything from Ned, ruined his life but he made that fateful promise nevertheless. I believe that was the choice that he made early on and built his life upon it. Family before duty, duty before honor.

Not that any of this matters. Rob would kill Rhaegar all the same if he knew. And Ned would fight beside him all the same. The only difference is Rob cherishing Lyanna's memory instead calling her a whore.

I agree with almost all of this, though I doubt that Robert was okay with what happened to Elia.  He probably accepted it because he had little choice, but I bet he was a little pissed off at the cruelty of it all.

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The quote from Bran at the end of the show is a result of some pretty lazy writing.  To assert that "Robert's rebellion was built on a lie" is a glib interpretation of the facts at hand.  Did Robert actually think that Lyanna was abducted and raped?  Or did he just want to believe it?  Did Robert know the truth and ignored it, or was Robert just guilty of confirmation bias?  This seems like a more likely history given what little we know of what happened during the tourney at Harrenhall in the Year of the False spring. One could not blame Robert for assuming the worst about Rhaegar's intentions.

Bran should have said "the whole thing was based on incomplete information, or misinformation".  But no, that was too complicated for the writers' vision: Rhaegar and Lyanna were star crossed lovers, and it was the rest of the world who lied in order to break up their just love.  Are we to ignore the fact that if Rhaegar and Lyanna had gone through with it, then the realm would have plunged into war anyway when Dorne realized that Rhaegar intended to spurn Elia in favor of Lyanna?

This is a classic case of the show taking a perfectly gray world and pushing certain characters to the black and white ends of the spectrum in favor of a more 'audience-friendly' narrative, while allowing no one to occupy the middle.  The show is getting more and more like The Lord of the Rings movies, much to my disappointment.

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1 hour ago, Megorova said:

What if that raven was sent not from King's Landing but from Casterly Rock? Or it was from KL, but letter wasn't writen by Mad King?

Okay? Maybe Mance Rayder sent it. What matter? The point is that Rhaegar and Lyanna had at least a couple months to avert a civil war, and they did nothing. It's not just that they didn't succeed -- it's that there is absolutely no evidence in the books they ever lifted a finger to try. They did nothing.

As far as the Tywin stuff, my opinion is that the last thing this series needs is another Evil Mastermind (with the possible exception of another Secret Identity). Doesn't mean it's wrong, but I don't think there's any evidence for it.

 

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On 29.08.2017 at 11:37 PM, Lucius Lovejoy said:

I thought you were just doing a sarcastic post mocking people who have extremely convoluted theories, but since you mentioned this twice I am not so sure...

I have my own convoluted theories ^_^

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How did Robert and Stannis cause the Windproud to sink on the shores of Storm's End?  Many people witnessed this, how could foul play have been done?

Easily. They had their spyes on that ship. Those people either perforated the walls/bottom of the ship, or blasted a barrel of gunpowder in ship's hold, and fled on small boat (beforehand damaging all other boats). Or they killed everyone on board beforehand, then sailed ship towards Storm's End and sunk it (with methods described prior), or made it collide with rocks, or be damaged by striking aground and sink. 

Many people witnessed this. But nobody survived from that ship. Why witnesses didn't save anyone?

Also what is more believable - that their death was staged, or that Staffon Baratheon experienced navigator/seafarer didn't managed to safely moor his ship to harbour of his home shore, where he knew every rock and every frog, and sailed all the way from Essos to Westeros only to drown in front of his home?

I think that place of disaster was intentionally chosen close to Storm's End, that people would witness it happening.

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Stannis spent the rest of his life pissed off that his parent's died, was that all an act? 

No, he indeed was pissed, but the reason was entirely different.

Tywin promissed them that Robert will get Iron Throne, and Stannis Storm's End, but then what Stannis got was Dragonstone, while Storm's Ends was given to Renly.

I don't know reason why Robert and Stannis wanted to kill their parents, but the reason why their conspiration with Tywin became possible is this:

"When Stannis was no more than four years old, his father took him and his brother Robert to court. There, Stannis believed he saw King Aerys II Targaryen on the Iron Throne, holding court. Stannis was impressed, and he and Robert agreed that the king had been as noble as the dragons were fearsome. It was years later that Steffon told him that it had been Hand of the King Tywin Lannister whom they had seen, as King Aerys had cut himself on the throne earlier that day and Tywin had taken over for him."

Both Robert and Stannis were blindsided by Tywin's greatness, since times when they were kids. Thus later he easily got into their heads and "poisoned" them.

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Steffon had already failed in finding a suitable wife as it was.

Or he didn't fail. He found fiancee for Rhaegar. But his letter with this news, addresses to King, was given to King's Hand Tywin, who then acted accordingly to his own plans. He sent message to Baratheon brothers that they should do what is needed.

"Maester Cressen remembers how Lord Steffon had written to him a fortnight before his return, stating that he had found a splendid fool in Volantis who would delight Robert and who might even teach Stannis how to laugh, in time".

Theory about this letter: true meaning of this message that was addressed to Baratheon brothers is that Steffon is already killed by No one - splendid fool from Volantis, whose name is Patchface, and that Robert and Stannis should be there on shore in time to witness shipwreck. Patchface was the only survivor of that shipwreck, because he was the one who caused it.

Also he was washed up on shore three days later, because after he damaged ship he swamed to shore in a boat, reported to Tywin, prepared for new assigment, and only then pretended that he was just now washed ashore.

That No one was hired by Tywin. And later he was assigned to spy on B brothers, and if they will even tell anyone, or try to tell anyone about their conspiracy with Tywin, then Patchface should kill them. Later Robert came to KL and became King, so he was close to Tywin and there was no need to spy on him there. So No one stayed with Stannis.

In Clash of Kings Patchface drunk remnants of poisoned wine given to Melisandre, and died. EDIT: My mistake - it was Cressen who drunk poison. Sorry.

In Storm of Swords Davos finds Patchface on Dragonstone playing with Shireen and Edric Storm. In Dance with Dragons Melisandre tells Jon Snow that she has glimpsed the fool in her flames and considers him dangerous. <- That info is from wikia.

My theories may be crazy, but the book itself is crazier.

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3 hours ago, Apoplexy said:

Tywin intervened in the rebellion only towards the end, when he sacked KL. He had stayed away from the war before that.

Directly - yes, but before that he was orchestraiting everything from the shadows.

Little Finger was behind all plots even before first episode of first season, but direct action he took only by Season 6 Episode 9.

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If he had wanted to ensure that Aerys was defeated, shouldn't he have deployed his army sooner?

No need. Seriously.

He already deployed Baratheons, Starks, Tullys and Arryn. It was already kind of crowded.

He got there in time for dessert.

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